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[mgallop]

Just had a pretty interesting Witch Game, opponent opened Witch/Nothing, I opened Remake/Silver, and to play catch up kept buying remakes. Eventually I was able to win -1 to -3 because we'd run Curses, remakes and festivals (I could have won 5 to -3 but buying a province seemed tacky).

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201208/20/game-20120820-214122-92b2e6f3.html

[axlemn]

It appears you grabbed the wrong log.  In any case, I think Witch-Copper beats Witch-Nothing.  You get hurt for opening Witch-Nothing every time you draw Witch on turn 4, causing it to miss the next round of play. 

Witch-Nothing, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3:5/11 (you are well-off)
4:5/11
5:1/11
Witch-Copper, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3 or 4: 5/6
5: 1/6

Edit: Qvist brings up a good point. 

[mgallop]

My bad,

this should be the right one.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201208/20/game-20120820-214813-1babb560.html
Also, note I'm pretty sure witch/nothing is more wrong than that since Pawn was available.

[qmech]

The simulator prefers Witch/Nothing to Witch/Copper 52% to 45% on a 5/2 start.

[Qvist]

It appears you grabbed the wrong log.  In any case, I think Witch-Copper beats Witch-Nothing.  You get hurt for opening Witch-Nothing every time you draw Witch on turn 4, causing it to miss the next round of play. 

Witch-Nothing, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3:5/11 (you are well-off
4:5/11
5:1/11
Witch-Copper, odds for drawing Witch on Turn:
3 or 4: 5/6
5: 1/6

Witch-Copper gives you higher t3 and t4 money densities, usually.  If there are decent 4-costs, then it's probably the way to go.  Otherwise it's potentially debatable, but Witch-Copper wins in my mind.

It's right that Witch misses the reshuffle if you draw it on turn 4, but on the other side if you draw it on turn 3 there's a small chance to draw it on turn 4 and higher probability to draw it on turn 5.