Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.
I noticed this in a big way when I looked back on SFS' actions day 2. This is gonna be a big post with lots of quotes, fyi.
Here is where Robz first mentions being actually suspicious of/willing to lynch O. O lands right in the middle of his suspicion list, beneath two confirmed townies.
So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?
SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.
These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.
Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops
In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.
Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.
O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?
In his very next post, seven minutes later, he's changed his tune a bit and is more confident that O and Galz are mafia, and they (and jo, and even Frisk to a lesser extent) are the ones he suggests could be mafia in the next couple pages. Note that O has zero votes at this point. A couple pages later, Tables comes along and votes for O, citing Robz' argument with O but noting that Robz had exaggerated. Skip ahead another couple pages (to 86), Robz comes back and again puts Galz then O atop his "want to lynch" list. Tables then makes a huge case against O, followed by this post by Robz, in which he votes for O.
@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.
Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.
VOTE: O
Robz had been suspicious of O before Tables voted but he did not specifically say he wanted to lynch O until 9 minutes before he actually voted and long after Tables made his case against O clear. Maybe this is semantics, but I would challenge Robz to quote the post where he "asked which the rest of the town would rather lynch" as he claims in the above post. He'd thrown suspicion on them and others but it wasn't until Tables had made a thorough case that he said, "Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick."
None of this seemed really wrong at the time, which is why nobody was immediately suspicious. But I believe the tale has been steadily getting taller and taller, and Robz has repeatedly cited this vote as why he unequivocally cannot be mafia. Tables is the one who made the strong case against O and Robz pretty clearly just went along with it. Now, who knows if he thought the wagon was going anywhere, but Ray Charles could have seen how scummy O was being and I would certainly not put it past a mafia Robz to bus his partner very early in this case. And yet, he has used this to say that he (oh and tables too sorta kinda I guess) was the champion against O, and Robz is now cleared for the game. Here's one post where he makes this claim:
I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.
Again, show me where you "put it to everybody else to say which." You can't. You throw suspicion around, but you never even suggest a lynch until Tables has meticulously laid out a case. The closest he comes is asking what Tables, Axxle, and I think of his suspicions of Galz, O, jo, and Frisk. Anyway, here's where he ADAMANTLY asserts that he is not mafia, and I believe this is where our tale is at its tallest:
brisk lynch! That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.
---- so where does this leave us? ----
We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.
List time:
That leaves 6 of us:
The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk
The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle
Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell
Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.
Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod? If one could bus, then why not both? I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O. I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.
I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.
I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who. I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.
Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?
Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.
Frisk quickly pulls back all suspicion of Robz being mafia. But an interesting point is brought up here. Glooble. Who Robz accuses me of being in cahoots with. So what was Glooble doing when O came under fire? Well, after Robz had listed who he was suspicious of but before Tables made a case/voted, Glooble listed O as the most suspicious person, by a good margin actually:
Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.
What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.
I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:
<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->
I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.
I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.
I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.
So while Robz is clearing himself for spearheading the O lynch, he is claiming that Glooble, who said O was the most suspicious even before he was under real fire, is mafia. At the risk of looking super duper chummy with Gloob, this accusation seems disingenuous. Glooble was the third vote on the O wagon.
Also interestingly, O listed Glooble as the most suspicious person before there was a vote or really even much of any suspicion on him. Maybe Glooble's suspicion was an OMGUS, but the fact that they both listed each other as most suspicious before there was a real bandwagon going suggests to me that they're not a team. If O had listed Gloob as most suspicious when it was looking like he would be lynched, well there's WIFOM there but I would be more suspicious of Glooble in that case.
So after looking back at SFS, I found some things to make me really concerned about Robz, and this is not even incorporating his actions the last two days. After looking back, Glooble and especially Tables are looking not very like mafia to me while I now must fully retract my position that Robz is very likely not mafia. I'm not saying it's the most likely thing, but the fact that Robz' recounting of the O bandwagon does not quite match up with the facts makes me worried that the town is being essentially led by a false leader.