Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Galzria]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

[Captain_Frisk]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

Ha!  I'm moving up in the world of Galz suspicion.

I have a suspicion that either of us (as town) are likely to see the other as potential Mafia, based on who voted for Axxle1.  In my mind - if we lynch J, and he flips mafia, then I would suspect you heavily... I would even point to this above post as paving the grounds for a day 3 lynch of town.  If I really thought that J was mafia, then I would have hammered him.  I tend to agree with him on the frustration of the town ganging up on him for no reason - based on how I feel when someone points the FOS @ me, and then watching theory rage against the universe when being lynched, despite the fact that he's such a nice mild mannered dude IRL. 

I tend to agree with your list from a few pages back... I'm not a big fan of Pops / Axxle either.  I want to let you and J off the hook, but I'm really not understanding this Glooble vote.

[Glooble]

This is harder than it looks. The more people are suspicious of me, the less I feel like contributing for fear of accidentally saying something else that makes me look totally scummy. I feel like every time I post, people jump on me. So I lurk, which also looks scummy, but in this not-very-active town there isn't as much pressure to contribute. That's a bad setup for town, and a good one for Mafia. This is almost certainly a town where mafia is hiding in the shadows, and I fully understand how we all reached that conclusion and why that makes me look very bad right now.

I don't know what to do about it. I could give you in-depth reasons for every suspicious looking post I've made, but I could do that just as easily if I were scum. Still, if people want that, I will happily do it.

If I actually try to scumhunt, I'm "deflecting" or "redirecting" and that makes me look like mafia.

The town needs to take a good look at the possible lynch candidates, and choose one everyone agrees is most likely to be mafia, or barring that, the one who's flip would be the most instructive. If that turns out to be me, I will not hold it against anyone - my play has been sub-par and I have not been the most active player. But I don't want that to happen. I think we can have a good chance of actually lynching scum tonight.

Even if Galz has given up his case against pops, I still find it compelling. Investigate him at night, sure, but that implies we have an actual cop in addition to our one-shot cop and that that person will be willing to expose himself. I don't think it's something we can count on.

I know my pops vote seemed rash and reactive, but I have since seen no reason to unvote him. If I have time today, I will look back and see if anyone seems more likely to be scum to me. I'm still getting bad vibes from Axxle2 and O.

Sorry for not being more helpful.

[Galzria]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

Ha!  I'm moving up in the world of Galz suspicion.

I have a suspicion that either of us (as town) are likely to see the other as potential Mafia, based on who voted for Axxle1.  In my mind - if we lynch J, and he flips mafia, then I would suspect you heavily... I would even point to this above post as paving the grounds for a day 3 lynch of town.  If I really thought that J was mafia, then I would have hammered him.  I tend to agree with him on the frustration of the town ganging up on him for no reason - based on how I feel when someone points the FOS @ me, and then watching theory rage against the universe when being lynched, despite the fact that he's such a nice mild mannered dude IRL. 

I tend to agree with your list from a few pages back... I'm not a big fan of Pops / Axxle either.  I want to let you and J off the hook, but I'm really not understanding this Glooble vote.

That above post, if J is Mafia, does not pave the way to a D3 town lynch, it paves the way to his Mafia partner who talks a big game about voting for him but never does, because he would rather not bus his partner if he can still shift suspicion.

Luckily for you, I don't believe Jo is Mafia, so the above scenario is moot. My point is that the shoe fits anywhere you want to put it. If Jo gets lynched, which is certainly still likely at this point, I would expect him to flip town. If he does, you're rather clear in my book for showing the same hesitancy I am to push a townie lynch wagon.

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

[Galzria]

This is harder than it looks. The more people are suspicious of me, the less I feel like contributing for fear of accidentally saying something else that makes me look totally scummy. I feel like every time I post, people jump on me. So I lurk, which also looks scummy, but in this not-very-active town there isn't as much pressure to contribute. That's a bad setup for town, and a good one for Mafia. This is almost certainly a town where mafia is hiding in the shadows, and I fully understand how we all reached that conclusion and why that makes me look very bad right now.

I don't know what to do about it. I could give you in-depth reasons for every suspicious looking post I've made, but I could do that just as easily if I were scum. Still, if people want that, I will happily do it.

If I actually try to scumhunt, I'm "deflecting" or "redirecting" and that makes me look like mafia.

The town needs to take a good look at the possible lynch candidates, and choose one everyone agrees is most likely to be mafia, or barring that, the one who's flip would be the most instructive. If that turns out to be me, I will not hold it against anyone - my play has been sub-par and I have not been the most active player. But I don't want that to happen. I think we can have a good chance of actually lynching scum tonight.

Even if Galz has given up his case against pops, I still find it compelling. Investigate him at night, sure, but that implies we have an actual cop in addition to our one-shot cop and that that person will be willing to expose himself. I don't think it's something we can count on.

I know my pops vote seemed rash and reactive, but I have since seen no reason to unvote him. If I have time today, I will look back and see if anyone seems more likely to be scum to me. I'm still getting bad vibes from Axxle2 and O.

Sorry for not being more helpful.

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Lurking is never a solution. All you can do is keep playing, scumhunting, and deflect to the best of your ability. It is harder than it looks. But never take anything personally. Insults may be thrown, or names called, but at the start of the next game, we're all "friends" again. Unless you're scum. Then get out of my town!

[Galzria]

Every time you talk*

[Galzria]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

[Captain_Frisk]

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Isn't this what we just did to eachother (emphasis mine?)

[Galzria]

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Isn't this what we just did to eachother (emphasis mine?)

Are you implying we're both Mafia? If that's true on your side, I'll trade my life for a Mafia kill.

Sadly, as I don't think you're scum (not unless Jo is Mafia), lynching both of us would be really, really bad for the town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sadly, as I don't think you're scum (not unless Jo is Mafia), lynching both of us would be really, really bad for the town.

Let's talk about Axxle2 for a second.  What are your thoughts regarding his scumminess?  I know pops is suspicions of him as well.  I just went back and read all of his posts back to Day2 start, and frankly he reads very similar to Axxle1...  snarky, not alot of content. 

What makes Axxle2 scummier than Axxle1 (who was in fact not scum - unless we're really playing Bastard Mafia 0)

[Axxle]

Ok, reading more and more arguments from Galz as to why Joth is town (the number of people who believe it) as well as J's post here:

The explanations are all over the thread and they form a twisty but very reasonable progression of decisions. It's not as simple as "I decided to be crazy and here's why"
...

Which is detailed enough and consistent enough that I'm tending toward believing it instead of thinking it's a fabrication. 
With those two things along with J's reaction to my Glooble question earlier, I'm going to have to conclude that I am wrong about my vote on J.
Unvote
As to who we should vote tomorrow, I'm now very conflicted.  I'm thinking Glooble, but it feels like pops really hasn't given me a reason to not vote for him. Plus knowing his role will do wonders for knowing Galz's role, which I really want to verify. I'm really worried that the approaching deadline is going to cause us all to panic and create unnecessary noise similar to MIII.
PEdit: I don't think Axxle2 is scum FWIW...

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

We're looking at Axxle. We're not looking at Robz.

I get a town read from Robz, but I got a town read from Robz once before and look where it got me. The man plays the game well, and I don't particularly trust or value my gut reads. I'm starting to go from "It's frustrating that he's the one townie who's not seeing that I'm town" to "Maybe he's not seeing that I'm town on purpose."

I mean, I can see mafia defending me OR pushing me at this point, because both of those things are going to be 100% defensible even if I flip town. Which is the big problem with my play this game. BUT once we get to the point where a lot of the "good players" who I respect (Galz, O, pops) are able to look past my weird play and declare a town read, the holdouts start to look more and more suspicious.

All this could apply to Tables/SFS too, but they sort of have to be both town or both scum, given SFS's investigation claim. And everyone (myself included) seems to agree that both town is much more likely.

But voting for me is very much in character for those two as town. Axxle and Robz, less so, IMO.

[jotheonah]

I kind of wish I were a mafia mastermind.  I would look an awful lot better coming out of this game. As it is, I'm going to have to tread hella carefully in MVI if I draw town.

[Captain_Frisk]

PEdit: I don't think Axxle2 is scum FWIW...

If you aren't confident on that statement, you would be a pretty poor town player.

[Grujah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

Didn't really follow him much, care to elaborate your case or point me to a post where you did that?

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

We're looking at Axxle. We're not looking at Robz.

I get a town read from Robz, but I got a town read from Robz once before and look where it got me. The man plays the game well, and I don't particularly trust or value my gut reads. I'm starting to go from "It's frustrating that he's the one townie who's not seeing that I'm town" to "Maybe he's not seeing that I'm town on purpose."

I mean, I can see mafia defending me OR pushing me at this point, because both of those things are going to be 100% defensible even if I flip town. Which is the big problem with my play this game. BUT once we get to the point where a lot of the "good players" who I respect (Galz, O, pops) are able to look past my weird play and declare a town read, the holdouts start to look more and more suspicious.

All this could apply to Tables/SFS too, but they sort of have to be both town or both scum, given SFS's investigation claim. And everyone (myself included) seems to agree that both town is much more likely.

But voting for me is very much in character for those two as town. Axxle and Robz, less so, IMO.

I feel remiss not mentioning the fifth (actually first) person on my wagon: Dsell.

I will say it again. I keep forgetting he's in this game, and that scares me.

On my wagon, scummiest to least scummy:
Axxle (until recently)
Robz
Dsell
Tables
SFS

Off my wagon, scummiest to least scummy:
Grujah
pops
Galzria
Captain_Frisk
Glooble
O

So that's where I am.

[Tables]

Joth's wagon now is interesting. Now the votes are down to 4, though, I think I need to look closely at when people unvoted. I suspect that, if Joth is town (which I still think there's a less than 50% chance of), then some of the mafia were probably on it, and probably jumped off vaguely when the wagon started to look unlikely to succeed - as then suspicion would fall on those still on the wagon if/when we knew Joth's loyalty. That would make Axxle and... I'm not sure who else potential suspects.

I've looked over my notes, and it seems to me the player whose contributed the least in terms of analysis I thought was notable, is O. Which is suprirsing. I think I mentioned this briefly at the end of day 1, that I found something odd about his posts, but now I'm beginning to think he may have been playing a long IIoA game. I've just reviewed his posts in the last 20 pages. There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis. The closest he really seemed to come to contributing anything particularly was when he linked to the Tarlihunder tells (or whatever).

I'm not going to vote for O, because I'm more suspicious of Joth and don't think we'd lynch him today unless a lot of other people are suspicious of him, but so everyone knows, FoS: O

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-18

Galzria (1): popsofctown
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (2): O, Galzria
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (1): Grujah

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Axxle]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

[Galzria]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

[Captain_Frisk]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

I'd Frisk-personal-policy-lynch O because I don't like his playstyle, he got me killed in M3 (rage!), and he continues to think I'm scum everywhere I go, but I see no evidence from him that justifies a legitimate scumread, which is probably just the way O likes it, scum or not.

So we've had 1 full wagon of J, and 2 mini wagons on Galz and Pops.  Did these fizzle because we were targeting mafia and couldn't push them over because we need something like 7/9 non mafia to vote, or did they fizzle because the arguments were just no good?  They could also fizzle because we have several non frequent posters: SFS, Tables, Grujah, Glooble.

[Galzria]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

I'd Frisk-personal-policy-lynch O because I don't like his playstyle, he got me killed in M3 (rage!), and he continues to think I'm scum everywhere I go, but I see no evidence from him that justifies a legitimate scumread, which is probably just the way O likes it, scum or not.

So we've had 1 full wagon of J, and 2 mini wagons on Galz and Pops.  Did these fizzle because we were targeting mafia and couldn't push them over because we need something like 7/9 non mafia to vote, or did they fizzle because the arguments were just no good?  They could also fizzle because we have several non frequent posters: SFS, Tables, Grujah, Glooble.

That's actually a REALLY good point about the infrequent posters. With 12 alive, even assuming only 3 Mafia (possibly 4?), that leaves 9 people to hit Mafia today, 7 of which must vote together. If all, or any number of the infrequent posters are town, that makes it exponentially harder, as they may come in to vote, but aren't around to do much scumhunting.

Hmm... Food for thought on our odds. :-/

[Tables]

Erm, I really don't think I post infrequently enough to be lumped with the other semi-lurkers. Not that it really matters, but I at least post 1-3 times almost every day...

[Captain_Frisk]

That's actually a REALLY good point about the infrequent posters. With 12 alive, even assuming only 3 Mafia (possibly 4?), that leaves 9 people to hit Mafia today, 7 of which must vote together. If all, or any number of the infrequent posters are town, that makes it exponentially harder, as they may come in to vote, but aren't around to do much scumhunting.

Hmm... Food for thought on our odds. :-/

Yeah - I said ~7/9 as an average - since we can be as bad as 7 out of 8 (4 mafia - no serial killer) to 7 out of 10 (2 mafia).  Either way, if a decent # of lurkers are town, we're in trouble. 

The night kill makes me feel like the 4 mafia solution is a little less likely given that there is definitely something out there with NK powers.  I assume if the setup is reasonably balanced, we'd have some nice powers to deal with either 4 mafia / 3 mafia + SK.

I would find it hilarious if have a bunch of vanilla townies, only 2 mafia, and an overactive vig, and a 1 shot cop.  Is the vig even an asset in that situation?