This is super super tempting but I'm afraid that my week-long vacation starting in two weeks might really get in the way of things. :/
Rules clarification, if a one shot role is roleblocked do they forfeit there action permanently or do they get that action back?
IE Im a Woodcutter and choose to kill Galzria a Mafia Goon. however the Theif Robz roleblocks me. Does this constitute my one action during the game or does it return to me as i was blocked from using my role?
(This is an example and I had absolutely no reason behind making Galzria and Robz mafia ;))
I am not playing, but I am excited to watch. Voltgloss, will you make a discussion thread for this?
Rules clarification, if a one shot role is roleblocked do they forfeit there action permanently or do they get that action back?
I am in, obviously.
I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that. I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads. I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish. But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.
And what if (one roleblocker blocks another) one roleblocker blocks another roleblacker blocking a power role?
It's impossible to have equality.I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that. I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads. I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish. But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.
FWIW, I have no problem at all with a quicktopic (in fact I think it would be fun to go back and read) but I'm less thrilled by a discussion topic on-forum, even spoiler-protected. It's a lot harder to enforce equality that way.
It's impossible to have equality.I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that. I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads. I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish. But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.
FWIW, I have no problem at all with a quicktopic (in fact I think it would be fun to go back and read) but I'm less thrilled by a discussion topic on-forum, even spoiler-protected. It's a lot harder to enforce equality that way.
I could squawk again about forcing other people to be silent in the public place of the forum; if you're going to play here, you'd better be ok with having discussion here, etc. etc. etc. Or you could just read the stuff I've already posted about that....
In because you wrote flavor for every possible role.
I could be wrong but probably once it hits 13 players, so I would imagine in the next day or 2. Monday would be a safe bet for pre-game or even starting depending on how hot this topic getsHmmh, I'd def be in (sounds like a fun setup too) if it was a bit later, but atm I'm busy enough with mafia I and I dont want to be a lurking member so not participating I guess.
I could be wrong but probably once it hits 13 players, so I would imagine in the next day or 2. Monday would be a safe bet for pre-game or even starting depending on how hot this topic getsHmmh, I'd def be in (sounds like a fun setup too) if it was a bit later, but atm I'm busy enough with mafia I and I dont want to be a lurking member so not participating I guess.
I shall join. Maybe I'll survive beyond night 1 this time...Play worse :P
No Robz. No. You can't sign up twice.
No Robz. No. You can't sign up twice."I swear, that Robz A guy is mafia!"
On the one shot topic,
If a one-shot gets roleblocked, his power is gone, as I've always known it. You create a terrible problem with the one shot Doc if you don't do it that way: if he tries to protect someone but is roleblocked, he shouldn't be informed. But if that player isn't targetted for a kill, he has no idea he was roleblocked. If you let him keep his shot, he has another Doc shot but has no idea he does. He could send in protection PMs every night just in case, but that's a pain, it's a potentially unnecessary decision with lots of gravity if it's real.
Furthermore, allowing a one-shot to keep his shot even though he was roleblocked subverts the concept of the roleblocker. The idea is that if a mafia roleblocker PR hunts well enough to block a cop, he will investigate 2 times all game instead of 3 and do some damage that way. If he roleblocks a one shot cop, he should investigate 0 times instead of 1 time all game. Delaying an investigation or delaying a protection is a very negligible amount of damage, so you have a roleblocker that randomly fails when he hits the "wrong" PR, which is dumb.
If you want the roleblocker to interact that way it seems like you don't want a roleblocker at all.
Roleblocks are best resolved based on dependency imo.
Hum. Debating staying signed up. Love the flavor, and believe I would enjoy your moderating, but... Hum.
Haha...
We're sorry, all poeple who want to play Mafia are currently playing other games. Please hold. Your call is very important to us. The next available player will be with you in 3 hours.
thinking about it... keep saying I'm just gonna spectate the next one.
I want to clarify 2 more things:
What happends if 2 persons target to kill each other? (Vigilante and Witch for example?)
Also if A kills B and B kills C?
more general:
only 1 mafia actually does the actual kill, and mafia need to choose that killer, right?
So you need to block that specific mafia player to stop the kill, right?
So I'd like to play, but Glooble and I are RL acquaintances. We don't live in the same place but we talk often. We can make a pact not to talk about the game, but I totally understand if the existence of such a relationship would be troubling to other players, and I would have no hard feelings about sitting out.
So I'd like to play, but Glooble and I are RL acquaintances. We don't live in the same place but we talk often. We can make a pact not to talk about the game, but I totally understand if the existence of such a relationship would be troubling to other players, and I would have no hard feelings about sitting out.
POTENTIAL 13th PLAYER:I think MI and MII both had 2 week deadlines (MII definitely did), but those were never reached. And yes, we'd love to have you in the game. Just have your build orders ready before the game starts :)
I am intrigued with the notion of playing, but I've never played before, and have only read parts of M III. I'm not interested in reading any of M I or MII, as the proposed 2 week interval between deadlines would seem to guarantee that more reading will be required for M IV than any of the previous iterations. Given all that, would I be welcome, and more importantly, would I be an asset to the game?
I changed my mind. We're not letting you in unless you read MI and MII, read all of my councilroom logs for games in which I purchase a Gardens, and watch twelve Zerg fast expand replays.If I've counted correctly, you've bought a Gardens in 133 games. 109 would have been my limit.
Then you can play.
You ask too many questions.
You shouldn't be counting the losses. Or acknowledging they exist. It should go without saying.Don't worry, I'll find somewhere I upvoted you and remove it :P
Hey who upvoted me somewhere on the forums while I was at exactly 100 respect?
It's good to have an odd number of players.
Night starts kinda suck. Though I shouldn't knock it before I try it, I guess. Don't like the idea of them though..
Is Green Opal's avatar Young Witch art? I don't own the card depicted but I'm curious.
@Voltgloss: Can I request that the mafia and potential masons be created a quicktopic for their discussion? This will allow people to look at their discussion after the game is over and might make it more interesting for after game discussion
Is there any role worth claiming this early? It puts a big target on your head but as we might as well have a Doctor of some sort it might not be (that?) bad?You should not role claim early. Role claim when you have valuable information to share and no one is listening to you without a role claim or if you're about to get lynched since there's no guarantee that we have a protective role to prevent nightkills.
Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.
Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.
Well, if you want to find scum so much today (admirable goal, who doesn't? (aside from scum)), what are your proposed methods? What are you going to look for? I think you would agree nobody is going to jump up and down screaming "Me! Pick me! I'm scum!". So, what should we look fir?
@Insomniac:
Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?
If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?
Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.
@Insomniac:
Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?
If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?
No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.
I believe Axxle to be town.
Discuss.
@Insomniac:
Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?
If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?
I'm not saying they aren't accountable for what they say at all.
I'm saying that if we all hammered jotheonah right now for saying "I'm scum" we wouldn't gain information. We'd see if he's town or mafia but we would have no real information on anyone else. So I'm hoping that we would ACTUALLY wait to hammer jotheonah or actually move to day 2 until we have information.
No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.
Oh god no. You missed the whole point of the article. It says we need to hold everyone accountable for all their actions even in RVS. This lets us get out of RVS much faster.
@Insomniac:
Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?
If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?
I'm not saying they aren't accountable for what they say at all.
I'm saying that if we all hammered jotheonah right now for saying "I'm scum" we wouldn't gain information. We'd see if he's town or mafia but we would have no real information on anyone else. So I'm hoping that we would ACTUALLY wait to hammer jotheonah or actually move to day 2 until we have information.
No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.
Oh god no. You missed the whole point of the article. It says we need to hold everyone accountable for all their actions even in RVS. This lets us get out of RVS much faster.
Say jotheonah jumps up and says "I'M SCUM!" which he did already jokingly. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill him, I'm also not saying he isn't responsible for his actions. What I AM saying is that if we lynch him right now we have no new information on day 2 except whether or not he was lying. We still have no better idea where the mafia is which is information I'd like to have going forward. I'm not even saying he shouldn't be lynched day 1 for his claim. But I AM suggesting that the longer day 1 is drawn out the better it is for the town.
Say jotheonah jumps up and says "I'M SCUM!" which he did already jokingly. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill him, I'm also not saying he isn't responsible for his actions. What I AM saying is that if we lynch him right now we have no new information on day 2 except whether or not he was lying. We still have no better idea where the mafia is which is information I'd like to have going forward. I'm not even saying he shouldn't be lynched day 1 for his claim. But I AM suggesting that the longer day 1 is drawn out the better it is for the town.
Yeah, but we aren't just lynching to gain information. We are lynching to kill the mafia. Presumably we thought he was mafia, which was why we voted for him (in this imaginary scenario).
Personally, I'm starting to sour on people voting for any reason other than "I find it more likely than not that this person is mafia."
Here are some of the ones I don't like:
"Well, we have to kill SOMEONE."
"This person is being unhelpful."
The voting for somebody who has been too quiet is also okay, because it just isn't fair if the mafia could get away with not talking at all.
Well, in that case.
Ahem.
Pick me! I'm scum!
But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.
If something I learned from BSG, I'd lynch a guy saying "I'm a scum" without breaking a sweat. (comparing it with Human playing a negative card into voting.. just because).
Well, in that case.
Ahem.
Pick me! I'm scum!
But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.
Robz: Voting for someone who's been too quiet is often a mafia move as much as anything. Mafia players rarely want to just sit there in silence, and are if anything more likely to get prods from their teammates to be more active. As a way to get them to talk, well, sure, but as a target for lynching... it's a bad move. It's essentially justifying a random vote.
The longer day 1 draws out, the more posts and information there is available to be analysed. The more posts there are, the easier it is to spot where the mafia might be, and to scumhunt effectively. We don't need to use all 3 weeks, of course, but ending the day early because we can is a sure-fire way to losing (Look at Mafia II: Morgrim ended the day early, which stopped me finishing my note taking before the end of the day, which after starting in the night had left me very suspicious of three people, two of which were mafia).
@Insomniac
"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"
Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.
Also another very good reason against an early day end: It (often) prevents the victim having a chance to defend themselves. If they have an important role like the cop, doctor or vigilante, we do NOT want to lynch them, and if we're in the mentality of 'don't lynch until we're sure' they get more time to claim. In fact, in general I consider giving the final vote suspicious, if the general consensus of everyone isn't already that the person has no chance to defend themselves successfully, and there's no more information to gain from the day. A person being at -1 from lynch is far from implying that.
So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it. It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something. People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
And if you look, I believe I did. But hopefully my last post clarified any remaining ambiguities. I think the math is sound, it was a well made point.So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it. It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something. People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
Inb4 Dos Equis meme.So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
Not at all. C.F. Could very easily be Mafia. I just think he made a good point, and I agree with him on it. I don't always upvote, but will if the inclination strikes me.
@ C.F. - +1 for using the math I posted in M-III. Lynching simply IS mathematically better than no lynching. However, informed lynching IS better than random lynching, which is, I believe, the crux of Axxle's referenced article. So +1 to him too.
What got me is whether it meant "+1, good post, here's why" or "+1, good post, here's why, you seem less scummy than before". Tha t is, in more general term, does making "good points" about game globally make you less scummy?
So, also, is that "CF could very easily" C.F. could be mafia just as easy as anyone or more easily than everyone else?
jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.
What is a RVS?
What is a RVS?
Random voting stage, its part 2 of the article axxle linked. Its probably the more useful part to which he was referring you. (Part 1 is about how to argue)
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@Galzria: Doesn't that logic keep recurring backwards somewhat though? If, according to your (perfectly reasonable) logic, the penultimate vote is the scummiest, then double-bluffing mafia would be interested in avoiding it, meaning it's more likely to be a town vote. And so on and so forth.
Of course, that leaves us in the position of not being able to extra any information from voter order which obviously isn't accurate either. So take any thoughts with a pinch of salt.
Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...
Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.
If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).
I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.
No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days. In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that.
Vote: jotheonah
Humor is, actually antitown. It's distracting and it's not analysis. It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.
I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting. Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.
Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.
Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down. Then the player claims a power role or VT.
Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...
Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.
So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.
How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.
Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...
Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.
So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.
How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.
That's insane. If you had 33% surity, and the surity was directly translatable into actual odds a person is mafia, then if we random-voted with 33% odds the town would have great chances of winning (I'm pretty sure the math here is right).
Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine. Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.
If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).
I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.
No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days. In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that.
Vote: jotheonah
Humor is, actually antitown. It's distracting and it's not analysis. It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.
I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting. Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.
Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.
Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down. Then the player claims a power role or VT.
Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.
So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)
And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.
Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine. Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.
also: Vote: O for claiming Jester. Why would any townie do that?
O, since you can't be deterred in your random vote, set each person of 15 up to a 4 second time window, then post. That fulfills the 60 second time stamp, so will hit someone, and keeps to your theme.
Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine. Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.
also: Vote: O for claiming Jester. Why would any townie do that?
If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).
I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.
No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days. In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that.
Vote: jotheonah
Humor is, actually antitown. It's distracting and it's not analysis. It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.
I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting. Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.
Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.
Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down. Then the player claims a power role or VT.
Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.
So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)
And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.
Here we go again.
What I would say is pick something that you can not reliably predict. Lets say: the share price of facebook - in cents at close today. (Thats 2.5 hours from now I think?)
Take that number and "mod" it by 15. If you aren't a computer programmer, that's the remainder that exists after you divide it by 15... this will give you a number between 0 and 14.
So if the final share price was 34.12, thats 3412 cents, which is 227 * 15 + 7 ... so the mod is 7 (http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/modulo-calculator/)
I almost want to vote Captain Frisk for thinking that only computer-programmers know what mods are... >:(
But that's highly manipulatable since people can just say "ZOMG O LOOKED IT UP BEFOREHAND"
Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.
I think I have an idea.
+1 for teh lolz that I needed.Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.
I think I have an idea.
HUMOR
Post a troll thread on BGG about the strength of Only Buying Money and count how many posts it receives in an hour?
/HUMOR
Also Galz I want it verifiable that I don't cheat. It's close enough when I use the seconds digit, 4 second timeframes are fify.
I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.What do you mean by a woodwork lurker? Not a loaded question, just don't know the term.
I would posit that perhaps, there really is nothing to be gained from vote order when considered as it's own entity. But combined with reasons given, past stances, and stated preference for day length (By the way, what are your thoughts on allowing the day to go on, for the sole purpose of getting more posts or there?), I believe there is much to be gained from vote order.Absolutely! I wasn't trying to say that there's nothing to be gained from it, as that would be inaccurate. Having everything written publicly here should at least have any Mafia carefully consider when they place their votes, which if nothing else lowers the odds of someone getting hammered when we're not expecting it...
1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal
Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0) by 5 PM EST
Not Voting (11) - Dsell, Insomniac, Robz888, O, theorel, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Green Opal
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch[/color]
The best example of this I can think would be Mafia II. Going into day 3 - there are 3 town and 2 mafia. If any member of the town misvotes - then the game is over, because the two mafia can quick hammer him. Sure enough, when
Thus - I was 90% sure that RobZ was Mafia when he opened the voting on Day 3. A vanila townie wouldn't have enough information to put the game out there on a 50/50 shot at being right - when no hammer occurred over the remaining time, I was 100% sure.
Back on topic though, I think theory discussion is perfectly acceptable. If people agree - then it gives you a common set of guidelines to measure peoples deviations from.
For example - If the consensus is that you should roleclaim @ LynchVotes - 1, and someone doesn't role claim, then they are either crazy like a fox (TINAS), or they are not a power role.
For example: If you explicitly know something to be bad play, and someone does it anyway - then that's information as well. Either the person isn't thinking, is crazy, or is mafia.
The best example of this I can think would be Mafia II. Going into day 3 - there are 3 town and 2 mafia. If any member of the town misvotes - then the game is over, because the two mafia can quick hammer him. Sure enough, when
Thus - I was 90% sure that RobZ was Mafia when he opened the voting on Day 3. A vanila townie wouldn't have enough information to put the game out there on a 50/50 shot at being right - when no hammer occurred over the remaining time, I was 100% sure.
1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal
Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0) by 5 PM EST
Damnit O - this is a bad idea too. There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving. You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know. You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.
Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?
Forums are acting wonky for me at the moment. Apologies if this already posted:
To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!
He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me. I'd be interested in hearing others thoughts on this.
Youtube doesn't update viewcount in real-time but on some regular interval. So if anyone checks near 5PM, it 'should' be ok. Encypting, however, works always. ;)
is it just me or forum is now extra-slow? I'm posting this from lynx (text-based browser) as a result.
To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!What? I never attacked you for asking questions. I'm telling everyone to stop getting into arguments about theory. You're the one who took it personally. Did you just ignore this post?:
He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me.
Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine. Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.
Youtube doesn't update viewcount in real-time but on some regular interval. So if anyone checks near 5PM, it 'should' be ok. Encypting, however, works always. ;)
is it just me or forum is now extra-slow? I'm posting this from lynx (text-based browser) as a result.
Superslow- I think Mafia IV is just too awesome for this poor server.
Oops - thank goodness for update posts preview. I must have missed a few pages because I wasn't following closely. This is what I was about to write:
@Robz
Really? As far as I can tell - you opened the voting:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44303#msg44303
May 30, 2012, 03:15:33 pm
Then there was the votecount
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44315#msg44315
Then insomniac voted: May 31, 2012, 12:27:06 pm
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44600#msg44600
-- end of WRONG post
Sorry for the confusion!
and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!
and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!
You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...
and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!
You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...
O (and other players in M3) - Can we not talk about this game? It's night time and we're all asleep.
and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!
You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...
O (and other players in M3) - Can we not talk about this game? It's night time and we're all asleep.
Sorry about that.
Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
I feel like it was my fault not killing TINAS. Not anyone else's.Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.
Well, in that case.
Ahem.
Pick me! I'm scum!
But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.
Positive:
Real information
Extra inferred information (who voted, when, etc)
Chance of lynching mafia
Negative:
Chance of lynching town (possibly higher chance than lynching mafia)
I'm not sure??
Can anyone add to that list?
Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.
No, that's the sick part, he can. Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.
I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.
No, that's the sick part, he can. Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.
I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.
I hate cops.
Wowowow this is going to end up being as long as Mafia III, isn't it? :o
First of all a big thanks to Voltgloss for changing the timeframes just to accommodate me! I totally wasn't expecting that and appreciate it.
I've been reading through for a while (the forum was super slow for me for a while too) and my thoughts so far:Well, in that case.
Ahem.
Pick me! I'm scum!
But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.
I don't like this. I don't think it's necessarily "scummy" but I think it's silly statements like this that can really get people in trouble. There are new people playing, we don't all know each others' playstyle, it's just risky. And like...why would you even say that? I don't agree that all humor is anti-town (I mean ultimately we're here to have fun, right?) but that kind of self-deprecating humor is just not smart play
In terms of the lynch vs no lynch on day 1 argument, I already stated what I think in Mafia III:Positive:
Real information
Extra inferred information (who voted, when, etc)
Chance of lynching mafia
Negative:
Chance of lynching town (possibly higher chance than lynching mafia)
I'm not sure??
Can anyone add to that list?
By no means a complete list, still asking for any good additions.
Pre-post edit: 7 new replies. Oh dear.
I'm going to take deep calm breaths and not respond because this game needs to stay on track.No, that's the sick part, he can. Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)Unvote
Well you were right. Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.
If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.
I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.
I hate cops.
I don't like the Cop role when I play IRL. But here, it's so much harder to read people that an investigative role is almost essential.
Why are you attacking J for those "scummy" posts but not me?
Why are you attacking J for those "scummy" posts but not me?
Ha! You're right, I was going to mention your Jester claim, but I figured it was obvious that it was a joke and not worth drawing attention to. Jester is confirmed not to be in the game whereas mafia is in every game. And I specifically said that it wasn't "scummy" (necessarily).
I saw switched from starcraft reading this board but they haven't posted anything yet so
Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft
Why you lurkin?
I saw switched from starcraft reading this board but they haven't posted anything yet so
Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft
Why you lurkin?
You're thinking that he's mafia and too afraid to post?
unvote, vote Insomniac
I'm going to take deep calm breaths and not respond because this game needs to stay on track.
unvote, vote Insomniac
Wait, why? No explanation at all?
Oops - posted too fast. Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.
unvote, vote Insomniac
Quote from: Captain_Frisk link=topic=2774.msg46543#msg46543
He's pops... you know... from ctown? He doesn't need any explanation.
[/quote
Oops - posted too fast. Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.
+1 because you're not allowed to edit this. ;D
Quote from: Captain_Frisk link=topic=2774.msg46543#msg46543
He's pops... you know... from ctown? He doesn't need any explanation.
[/quote
Oops - posted too fast. Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.
+1 because you're not allowed to edit this. ;D
I want to so bad!
Quote from: Captain_Frisk link=topic=2774.msg46543#msg46543
He's pops... you know... from ctown? He doesn't need any explanation.
[/quote
Oops - posted too fast. Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.
Haha, boy C.F. You botched that one up pretty well. ;)
For the record Pops, I'm interested to hear why as well.
Quote from: Captain_Frisk link=topic=2774.msg46543#msg46543
He's pops... you know... from ctown? He doesn't need any explanation.
[/quote
Oops - posted too fast. Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.
Haha, boy C.F. You botched that one up pretty well. ;)
For the record Pops, I'm interested to hear why as well.
Ha - you did it too!
*Ahem* Wow, good job C.F. That was worth some chuckles. +1. Still not sure how you managed that. No more quoting you! ;)
You'll get nothing and like it.
You'll get nothing and like it.
You'll get nothing and like it.
/With appropriate quotation this time.
This strikes me as intentionally antagonistic. Did you learn something from TINAS and O in M1? I'm curious to see the town reaction to this...
You'll get nothing and like it.
VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN for the above reason.
I'm not always good at explaining what I mean, but that is what I find somewhat scummy. But not as scummy as scums that are scummier, but less scummy than townies that are not scummy by comparison. /hinterlands
Voting without reasoning is not mafiascum style mafia. It's troll style mafia, and after I amused myself with reactions (and gained information from guesses at my motivation) I was going to explain whether asked or not.
You'll get nothing and like it.
Insomniac is not suspicious because he expressed suspicion, it's the lack thereof. He mentioned the unlikelihood that his target was scum.
You'll get nothing and like it.
I feel like the game is running away from me...what does this mean? I KNOW you must have something in mind. I'll get nothing from what? Why would I like that? I guess I echo C_F but I feel like this is not so much meant to be antagonistic as cryptic? Maybe?
Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!
Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!
+1 for the lol.
UNVOTE
Vote: Galzria - as we've clearly identified that humor is anti-town.
O, remember when you said we broke Galzria? I think we definitely did.
Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!
+1 for the lol.
UNVOTE
Vote: Galzria - as we've clearly identified that humor is anti-town.
So this is the first time I've really been trying to deeply analyse what people are saying and meaning.
And I don't think simply not posting can be taken as that much of a sign of being town, simply on the odds being fairly low of the number of people who haven't said anything yet all being innocent.
UnvoteYou do realize your vote had no impact whatsoever on whether he posted or is promptness in doing so?
Got a response that is all I wanted for now.
I'm going to put my vote back on Axxle, actually. He WAS a bit jumpy earlier, and then went all mysterious and silent when things turned lighthearted.I do have work.
Vote: Axxle
Anybody care to join me?
UnvoteYou do realize your vote had no impact whatsoever on whether he posted or is promptness in doing so?
Got a response that is all I wanted for now.
Do something useful.
There's no Mafia IV QT? I'm fine with it, the only objector I can recall is TINAS and he's not playing.
All my votes are serious (this particular game)
I note that O did not respond to my vote, but did, in the next few posts vote for two different folks in quick succession.
Disregard for a newbie's opinion? Perhaps.
Deflection of attention? HMMM, interesting thought.
I am comfortable with a quicktopic existing
I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker. Read my posts.
People I'd like to vote for but can't because I have one vote and Axxle hasn't responded yet:
Insomniac
Theorel (the only Dark Horse left)
People I'd like to vote for but can't because I have one vote and Axxle hasn't responded yet:
Insomniac
Theorel (the only Dark Horse left)
Ok, so a few things about me.
I work in a restaurant. While I am at work (usually 7 in the morning to 3 in the afternoon) I have absolutely no computer access. I am on my feet, waiting tables.
Today I had to wait a very long time for a bus and didn't end up getting home until 5.
I was not expecting to come home on day one to 11 pages of forum! I am up to page eight and decided to post just let you all know I exist, but damn this is a lot to digest. I will sa something substansive as soon as I have read through and caught up.
Oh wow, my quote of Glooble was in response to Galzria thinking he was still a lurker. Don't know why it didn't tell me new posts had come up. Disregard that.
@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.
It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win.
He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy. He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.
I'm slightly dreading going to sleep in an hour or so and seeing how much thread there'll be by that point, especially given it was very inconveniently not be a bank holiday then...
VOLTGLOSS - Can you tell us newbies what the purpose and potential use of the discussion thread is, and why would someone potentially object?
@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.
It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win.
He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy. He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.
Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.
"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.
@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.
It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win.
He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy. He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.
Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.
"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.
One big issue on Day 1 is that there's 15 of us. We just can't all be crazy active. It leads to ... well, to this madness.
"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.
Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?or I should say the only two options.
Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?
Then again, if only you are like you there's still an easy mafia cover ... for you.
Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?
No one said it was. I'm just saying, we need town all along that spectrum. Except maybe at the ends.
@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.
It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win.
He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy. He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.
Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.
"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.
Nope.I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker. Read my posts.
Ok, ok I read them and maybe I was oversimplifying, but doesn't that make Green Opal just as suspicious? I mean insomniac obviously has different reasons for using his vote than you do, but we just had like a whole page of trollvotes. I just do NOT find a vote to get a lurker to talk suspicious. I'm not gonna do it myself but I find it odd that you are really serious about your vote.
I'd like to point out though that it would be a very dangerous way to play as mafia: I frequently get myself pretty close to being lynched.
It seems to me that any way you can play town that convinces that town that you are town would also be a way to play Mafia and convince the town that you are town.
I'd like to point out though that it would be a very dangerous way to play as mafia: I frequently get myself pretty close to being lynched.
Ah, but don't forget Rule of Acquisition #62 - the riskier the road, the greater the profits.
@jototheonah
15 people is a lot. It's going to get very difficult for me to keep everything straight in my head.
Ok.Nope.I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker. Read my posts.
Ok, ok I read them and maybe I was oversimplifying, but doesn't that make Green Opal just as suspicious? I mean insomniac obviously has different reasons for using his vote than you do, but we just had like a whole page of trollvotes. I just do NOT find a vote to get a lurker to talk suspicious. I'm not gonna do it myself but I find it odd that you are really serious about your vote.
Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.
Your question answered itself. Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.
the original questionYour question answered itself. Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.
Who are you talking to? If you are talking to me, I just reread my post and did not ask a question.
Your question answered itself. Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.
Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.
Well, if you want to find scum so much today (admirable goal, who doesn't? (aside from scum)), what are your proposed methods? What are you going to look for? I think you would agree nobody is going to jump up and down screaming "Me! Pick me! I'm scum!". So, what should we look fir?
Your question answered itself. Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.
Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.
...but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...
No but really, that's actually a good idea. I don't have time to do that, though. So far I've been able to keep up.
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
O requested this, and I felt the need to grant him it for whatever reason.Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
That unlikelihood is already implied, and he wasn't prompted by anything like "to what extent do you feel SFS is likely scum", someone just asked to follow his thought process. He over reacted and tried to shirk responsibility for his vote.
Hello everyone.
I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).
I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.
Unvote
Got a response that is all I wanted for now.
Hello everyone.
I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).
I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.
Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.
On others players:
SFS's post seems honest, trustworthy, for some reason.
Galzria seems like he triest so much to comment and put into context everything, but seems good so far.
O and pops - don't like em at all, acting random for.. what?.
Robz seems ok and trustworhy so far.
Captain Frisk - though he seems thoughtful and helpful, a bit too.. I don't know? Scripted.
Axxle at least showed some spine ;D
Tables I dont like.
Theo - nothing so far.
Dsell - mostly impartial but leaning on good side.
Green Opal - still evaluating, though leaning on good side.
For J i all ready said it was a very stupid move nad he didn't do anything smart after that.
Vote: Insomniac.
I'll hammer/bandwagon on some other votes too (J, O, pops)
THIS REPLY IS AFTER READING UP TO POST 314, SOMETHING WILL POP UP IN MIDTIME.
Ok with Quicktopic
I came to the thread wanting to vote for Tables, after giving it some thoughts (and watching Game of Thrones season finale)
Yes, Axxle was a bit too jumpy (still not completely clear), especially getting jump for Tables bring out out his name saying "I trust this guy". But than, this is what struck me as weird! What the hell is that? "I believe Axxle". Out of blue. No reason. And Axxle's respond seemed like two of the share a dirty little secret. And by that I don't mean Mafia exclusively, Axxle's jumpyness to me, look like, a guy saying to another one: "dude, we don't bring that up, we agreed not to".
But I'm still more interested in Tables' out of blue trust towards Axxle, and especially bringing it up like that. Ok, it did "create response" especially from Axxle, but still, it feels.. like a weird move. Like, why do that exactly and not vote someone or at least back up why you trust him?Unvote
Got a response that is all I wanted for now.
But this! This caught me off-guard. How outrageous. It looks completely like someone trying to cover up things. Seriously. Especially after that exchange with Captain Frisk. So other posts too, like "lets now all vote for J"
On others players:
SFS's post seems honest, trustworthy, for some reason.
Galzria seems like he triest so much to comment and put into context everything, but seems good so far.
O and pops - don't like em at all, acting random for.. what?.
Robz seems ok and trustworhy so far.
Captain Frisk - though he seems thoughtful and helpful, a bit too.. I don't know? Scripted.
Axxle at least showed some spine ;D
Tables I dont like.
Theo - nothing so far.
Dsell - mostly impartial but leaning on good side.
Green Opal - still evaluating, though leaning on good side.
For J i all ready said it was a very stupid move nad he didn't do anything smart after that.
Vote: Insomniac.
I'll hammer/bandwagon on some other votes too (J, O, pops)
You're still off, but now you're actually trying and getting closer, Dsell. The post posed to Insomniac was more like "Are you, Insomniac, voting X because his action Y leads you to believe he is scum?" As part of his explanation he emphasized the -unlikelihood- that his target is scum. That was not necessary to his answer, but served the survivalist purpose of appearing less aggressive
So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.
So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.
I really hope this is a joke. XD
Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully).
So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.
I really hope this is a joke. XD
That particular line was somewhat of a humorous overstatement. But I'll go ahead and sand by the general sentiment.
Oh, also I'm guessing not all 7 pages (or however many there will be in the an hour and a half) have substance, so if anyone would like to sum up what's happened, I'm sure I would find it helpful.
Note, this potentially incriminates the people who are coming out and saying silliness is antitown as (potentially) mafia trying to wrangle the town into a more manipulatable state. *cough*Axxle*cough*I will counter by saying that Mafia is perfectly fine with no active scumhunting happening.
@Galzria
I think that concientious town players will be hyperaware of the possibility of mafia-led bandwagons. Anyone accumulating a critical mass of votes in a short time is not a good lynch target.
We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.
So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.
Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.
So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)
And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.
That said - O - can you clarify this post below? Why would you guess that analysis is anti-town? If you're going to claim your voting record in M1 as a success, how did you save TINAS without analysis?
J - you seem to, very often, have the need to say:
"we, townies". Like, you repeat that you are, in fact, townie. This last post, but few before too.
Why?
Every joke that pops into my head, I can make. Every joke that pops into a mafia player's head, he must evaluate.
I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:
"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "
I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.
On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.
I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:
"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "
I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.
On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.
Grabbing up allies? Axxle could just as easily be putting forth articles that allow his mafia playstyle to dominate.
Not that I don't appreciate the articles; it gives me a great chance to try and refute them.
Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.
Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.
Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....
Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.
Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....
[/quote]Hello everyone.
I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).
I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.
Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.
I would rather have a Vanilla Town lynched than not lynch at all. Even if it's me. The math simply supports that being the better move. I would also rather lynch a VT than a Role. And above all that, I would rather lynch Mafia.
We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?This is actually the sort of post that should give you an obvtown or obvscum, depending on the correct interpretation.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
I just reread the whole thread. I now have suspects. One of them is Switched From Starcraft, master of the contentless-post and the barely-not-lurking, utterly uninvolved in rapidfire exchanges of any sort, and quick to vote, with little explanation, for the guy that already had two votes on him.
Thoughts?
Do you think SFS is scummy, Galzria?
Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here. I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd. I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?
Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here. I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd. I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?
@Pops, I'm like...RL worked up about this. Please do not handle yourself that way in this game. I don't even care if it's a tactic that some experienced mafia players use.
Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here. I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd. I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
SFS has yet to show evidence of his humorousness. He really isn't posting much. But he was all like "I'mma be funny" after the town had shown a general inclination toward appreciating humor. Like "Ooh, free town points."
VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.
Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops
When I use absolutes I don't mean "I'm right and everyone else is wrong no debate".
It seems like I made him feel unwelcome to disagree, which is not something I want to cause.
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
Insomniac - Your timing is impeccable. Not lurking, just getting caught up. Played golf this morning and this is the first time I've been able to read since confirming my role last night. 6 new pages, wow. Someone expressed concern that this would be longer than MIII, I suspect it will be very long indeed with 15 of us.fluff
Voltgloss - Thanks for moderating this, with all you have going on.
Axxle - Thanks for the link to the two articles. I found the second article to be particularly important.slight townread (for me)
Couple of housekeeping things before I begin the substantive part of my post:fluff
1) I am a newbie, having never played this game at all in any format.
2) I have created a temporary signature to define my abbreviations for people's names. If your name is not abbreviated in my signature, I will do my best to use it in its entirety. I did this because someone in an earlier post used the salutation "@G", and there are 4 names in this game that start with "G".
3) I'm not going to read MI or MII (with the exception of checking the two starting posts, to verify the absence of the players in my first question below), and I will likely abandon my reading of MIII, which is currently in Night 1.
4) My gender is male, if it helps anyone avoid awkward choices of pronoun.
5) I am on EDT in the US, if that is useful info for anyone in evaluating posting patterns. (God, I'm such a data whore).
Now, on to substance:That isn't substance...
@Theo, Gloob, Green: You were not in MI or MII or MIII. Have you played Forum Mafia before? Have you played IRL?
After reading the second article that Axxle suggested, I am of the opinion that random voting on Day 1 is anti-town. Day 1 is indeed a time for to be as non random as possible. So, I'll be bold:Not original, and he complains later about O not addressing it. We all know O's random, O most of all.
VOTE: O, because he will be voting randomly.
Pre-post addendum: OMG, while I'm wrestling with this, another full page? I started this literally one minute after #211.
I regret upsetting Dsell. It seems like I made him feel unwelcome to disagree, which is not something I want to cause.
Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops
So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?
Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops
So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?
I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one).
Though I do find myself getting too easily won over (have this feeling in RL as well as here, actually).
O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Generally.
But my intention here was to purposly jump the bandwagon.
I want to complete it, I'm currently failing.O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?
O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?
O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Galzria has his confidence, Robz refuses to vote, to take a stance"
Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?
O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Galzria has his confidence, Robz refuses to vote, to take a stance
Axxle wants to leave out humor, these damn games give me a tumor
Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?
"O can be O 'cause he's OConvinced!
TINAS, same thing but moreso
But pops is so terse
It comes across worse
And so on him votes we will throw"
Unvote thought he was at 3
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.
I'm weighing the idea of voting for pops. Trying to decide how likely/unlikely it is that he is mafia. It's pretty bandwagony already, and it's pretty early on. And I don't actually know how much information we would get by hammering him right now. However, I do kinda want to make a point, if nothing else. And I don't like AT ALL being told how to think or post or vote. I think I'm going to refrain for now but that may change in the future. I am just not at the point where I really suspect him yet over everyone else.
Pre-post edit: Yeah with Axxle's vote I feel ok not voting right now.
Ok, going to bed now (work at 7!) but a few thoughts first:
I'm finding pop's ultimatum's and refusal to explain things a little on the scummy side, but it also seems a bit obvious for scum play, especially from a veteran player. Axxle's analysis of SFS, on the other hand, resonates with me. It looks very much like "post enough to get noticed, not enough to make anyone notice me enough to get mad at me." - in other words, good first day Mafia strategy.
If I had to vote now, I'd probably go SFS. Fortunately, we still have a long way before the deadline. I would like to hear some more from SFS, if not convictions at least suspicions. It's odd that being too certain reads scum, but so does never being certain, but that's how I see it right now.
I'll probably be back around 3:30 - 4:00 tomorrow, at which point I imagine there will be 10 - 15 new pages to catch up on.
No one voted me for being silent? I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well. It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares. And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...:(This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
And, that's the whole thread. Now for a quick post before bed...
@Pops: I didn't mean to say I wasn't going to read the thread (although I guess I did say IF...put it up to frustration at number of posts to read (especially because I couldn't read some while waiting for code to run at work because I couldn't get on f.DS)) The IF was more of a IF I read it all before I post.
Okay, the rest:
No one voted me for being silent? I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well. It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares. And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...:( Maybe this day will last a long time, slow down a bit, and things will change.
Things directed at me:
I played mafia IRL in college a few times. I enjoyed it, but enjoyed more reading Mafia I and II. I decided I wanted to play a forum game, since I haven't in some time...here I am with no forum mafia experience.
Quicktopic is totally fine by me
Hmm...Pops is at 4, so he's unlikely to be mafia...IMO too quick to build. Of course Axxle was willing to push it further (from 3 to 4 also) nvm he hit it to 5. Hmm...Draw your own conclusions, I don't think Pops is acting scummy. The question is who's pushing the bandwagon looking for scum, and who's scum trying to jump on?
Wonder how many posts will be up by the time I read tomorrow morning?
No one voted me for being silent? I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well. It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares. And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...:(This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.
No one voted me for being silent? I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well. It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares. And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...:(This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.
@Robz, why are you so worried about Pops? 5 is far from 8. I had forgotten Insomniac had voted way back when, but your suspicions that we band wagoned to join him are ludicrous. I believe O and myself have reasons for voting Pops. Both of us have expressed interest in JUST HEARING an explication. So I really don't understand your points or concerns for Pops.
I have no reason to believe there are any scum on the bandwagon ATM. Maybe Grujah.
I have no reason to believe there are any scum on the bandwagon ATM. Maybe Grujah.
Well, Grujah was also the one who stuck out to me. I didn't have the order straight of who voted when regarding O, so now that I see when his vote came in, it's not as odd.
Generally.
But my intention here was to purposly jump the bandwagon.
Logically I should have the same read as you. But "for whatever reason" my gut says no. I'm fine being wrong if enough other people are in agreement with you. Or if he does something else that smacks of mafia.No one voted me for being silent? I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well. It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares. And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...:(This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.
As I just posted, it gives me the exact opposite read.
Anybody want to weigh in on what I said about Thoerel? His post really struck me, and Axxle had the opposite reaction from me.
It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.
It may be my fault. The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.
I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.
It may be my fault. The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.
I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.
I just believe it's a fair place to look if Pops doesn't speak up, which I'm honestly thinking more and more as being a disengage tactic to try and get people to unvote, hoping he didn't give away enough for people to be SURE of him.
@Me -
As I said when Rob called me out:
"I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one)."
"VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings."
I.E. I want to see Pops pressured, as his lack of explanation, rash and too-confident handling of SFS was strange.
@Theo -
I actually found his post #367 to be more-townie-likely (the game part not the lurking and not posting part). Though this accusation made against him (Axxl's) do give me and off-beat and make me weary. (Yeah, quite impressable here?)
Pops is online for some time, he posted some short time ago in his Fan Expansion thread. (are things like this too metagame-y? I mean, things like following people on forum (or even Iso!))
Pops is online for some time, he posted some short time ago in his Fan Expansion thread. (are things like this too metagame-y? I mean, things like following people on forum (or even Iso!))
Your question answered itself. Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.
This is really interesting. I have a mental view of you and your style based on your moderation of M1 - but you're completely different over here.
I am inherently suspicious of anyone who seems confident that they know what they are doing - like there is some kindof master plan. Maybe its just lack of experience, but it seems like there's really no way to truly have that level of confidence. I'm keeping an eye on you.
Pre Post Edit - 6 MORE?
Oh - and Unvote I'm not really any more suspicious of Galzria than anyone else at this point.
I've been in a game like that. I decided to come out as cop with an innocent on the day 2 lynch target to try to get the game on the right track. And I did. One of my least satisfying wins as mafia though.err... what is this in response to?
(there's a moral here)
I've been in a game like that. I decided to come out as cop with an innocent on the day 2 lynch target to try to get the game on the right track. And I did. One of my least satisfying wins as mafia though.err... what is this in response to?
(there's a moral here)
I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.
2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot". Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly? I must have missed it. Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town"). no pun intended
1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal
Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0) by 5 PM EST
Damnit O - this is a bad idea too. There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving. You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know. You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.
Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?
To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).
And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that ;D
3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across? Can you elaborate?
More in the next hour.
THIS POST WAS STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER READING #444. NOTE: MY SIGNATURE HAS ADDED AN ABBREVIATION FOR JOTHEONAH.
What the hell have I gotten myself into. This is an insane amount of material. I'm up to the minute as I begin this post. I will post more later tonite on the issues that have come up surrounding me specifically since I was last current. Note that my schedule is somewhat irregular as I am the caregiver for my elderly mother. Things come up that keep me away from the keyboard for long periods of time (3+ hours) - meals, outings, etc. However, I stay logged in, because its just easier. FFR, my intent is to spend the most amount of time here between about 20:30 and 23:59 EDT (UTC -5?)
My spreadsheet is handwritten (I'm a dinosaur compared to you guys), so I'll take things in order I wrote them down. Here's what I've noticed from today, and/or want to pursue:
1) At #337 (p14), JO wrote: "We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones." This statement hit me oddly. The first part of it somehow feels like an overt subliminal suggestion (if there could be such a thing) not to look for tells. Just doesn't give off the right vibe somehow.
2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot". Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly? I must have missed it. Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town"). no pun intended
3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across? Can you elaborate?
More in the next hour.
THIS POST WAS STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER READING #444. NOTE: MY SIGNATURE HAS ADDED AN ABBREVIATION FOR JOTHEONAH.
What the hell have I gotten myself into. This is an insane amount of material. I'm up to the minute as I begin this post. I will post more later tonite on the issues that have come up surrounding me specifically since I was last current. Note that my schedule is somewhat irregular as I am the caregiver for my elderly mother. Things come up that keep me away from the keyboard for long periods of time (3+ hours) - meals, outings, etc. However, I stay logged in, because its just easier. FFR, my intent is to spend the most amount of time here between about 20:30 and 23:59 EDT (UTC -5?)
My spreadsheet is handwritten (I'm a dinosaur compared to you guys), so I'll take things in order I wrote them down. Here's what I've noticed from today, and/or want to pursue:
1) At #337 (p14), JO wrote: "We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones." This statement hit me oddly. The first part of it somehow feels like an overt subliminal suggestion (if there could be such a thing) not to look for tells. Just doesn't give off the right vibe somehow.
2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot". Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly? I must have missed it. Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town"). no pun intended
3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across? Can you elaborate?
More in the next hour.
Viewers at home will know how I feel about this post...
This kid gets it.I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.
Galzria - At #361, you stated "Having played Mafia to success with the long, reasoned posts...". In that success, were you Mafia?
I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.
Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?
I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.
Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?
I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.
Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?
He typed up, thought about posting, then deleted.
3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across? Can you elaborate?
More in the next hour.
Finally, post #350 was in response to the article which Axxle (I believe Axxle) linked us all in the first day. The comment is solely saying how I disagree with the article, and while you're welcome to read the article to try to gleen some mafia perspective on me from it, it's not altogether amazingly relevant to who is or isn't mafia. ;)
I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.
Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?
I think he means deleted before posting it. But I don't know how he knows that. I could believe that SFS is actually really new and naive. (I don't, but I could.) The first thing a genuinely new and naive player who was mafia would do, given basic competence, would over emphasize his naivety.
Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?Dug it up for you guys. Pretty clear. I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?Dug it up for you guys. Pretty clear. I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.
Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?
He typed up, thought about posting, then deleted.
So why was he the primary exception? My vote for you was not at all in jest.Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?
You're correct here.
So why was he the primary exception? My vote for you was not at all in jest.Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?
You're correct here.
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?Dug it up for you guys. Pretty clear. I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
I think, for the moment, Unvote. Pops hasn't convinced me AT ALL, but I am wary that he hit 5 votes so quickly, and I'm not sure of his guilt much more than others in that list. He responded, I unvoted. Now to reread some.
I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?Dug it up for you guys. Pretty clear. I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
Got it, thanks for the clarification.So why was he the primary exception? My vote for you was not at all in jest.Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?
You're correct here.
We were talking about random votes not made in jest. Your vote was not random.
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
guys, come on this is obvtown posting
I've been told I often make the right calls for the wrong reasons because I have a strong gut. Maybe just trust a brotha? There's 14 other players. I'm including myself, at least if I die my ideas gain more credence.
And you are asserting that your abandonment of that idea is mad clear by which part of that post?1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal
Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0) by 5 PM EST
Damnit O - this is a bad idea too. There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving. You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know. You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.
Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?
To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).
And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that ;D
This is where I abandon the random-voting tactic
And you are asserting that your abandonment of that idea is mad clear by which part of that post?1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal
Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0) by 5 PM EST
Damnit O - this is a bad idea too. There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving. You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know. You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.
Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?
To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).
And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that ;D
This is where I abandon the random-voting tactic
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.
It's town. Lay off him. Let's move onward.
Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.
Pops, was your comment about laying off me, or Galzria?
See my reply at #490.I might use . instead. That wouldnt cause much problem would it?Dug it up for you guys. Pretty clear. I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.
OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor. It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun. I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:
I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts. If that gets me lynched, so be it. This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.
You have all been warned!
Oops yeah I just missed this. I read that post but missed that phrase.
But on the topic of that post: SFS, you said in your "original" introduction that you would be using lots of humor, that you weren't even concerned if that gets you lynched. So far, you have been one of the most anti-humor people in the game? Care to comment on this? Did you write and delete that post because that is not how you ended up wanting to present yourself?
@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
SPeaking of loyalty to good data, before I vote on a discussion thread being started, can anyone speak to the possibility of information becoming accessible (probably inadvertently) through contamination of the discussion threads for MI and MII and MIII?
I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).
Will you give updated thoughts on SFS? I know what you thought of Theoral's post. But SFS has now said more.
Gotta love the noobs.SPeaking of loyalty to good data, before I vote on a discussion thread being started, can anyone speak to the possibility of information becoming accessible (probably inadvertently) through contamination of the discussion threads for MI and MII and MIII?
I'm sure the discussion threads for MI and MII did not pollute the game. MIII is more controversial because the discussion thread is more successful, but... I don't see a probably with it. But I'm weird in that I wouldn't really care if the audience had an ongoing poll about who they think is mafia. It's not like they have more info than we do.
The bigger worry is probably info from ongoing mafia games sneaking in to other ongoing mafia games. I am very careful not to post things from MIII, even when I think they might be helpful observations. That's just me.I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).
Will you give updated thoughts on SFS? I know what you thought of Theoral's post. But SFS has now said more.
To be honest, SFS's posts are actually reading TOO naive to be deliberate mafia strategy to me. I'm irked that he isn't being bolder, but I'm not irked in a suspicious way. Just irked. What do you think?
I'm gonna be on for about 10 more naive minutes, if I can respond to anyone else's concerns or inquiries.
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.
Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?
I laughed out loud. How the hell would I know? It's day one and I've never played the silly game. I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences. (e.g., I have no idea what the vote count is, and am too tired to go back and tally for myself. I will start noting the VOLTGLOSS posts though, so I only have to wade through X pages of post when I need a count).I'm gonna be on for about 10 more naive minutes, if I can respond to anyone else's concerns or inquiries.
SFS, you MUST answer this. Who do you think is the mafia?
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.
Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?
SFS, that strikethrough wasn't an edit per say, I wrote it before you updated your post with bold and just put a strikethrough indicating that I was going to post it but you invalidated what I was going to post.So it's within the bounds of the rules? Cause I like that better than "Pre-Post Edit" in some circumstances. I think it is more clear (as it was in this case as it turns out, 'cause I had correctly interpreted it as sort of analogous to "Ninja'd").
@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).
Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.
Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?
Who's "we"? I haven't been railing on him so hard, I've been responding to the 15+ questions he's had for me.
I don't really find SFS suspicious. I DO still find Pops... well.. strong-headed.
Do we lynch liars, or 15 intended to be humorous?
@Robz, to be honest, post #440 applies somewhat here too. But that doesn't really address the fact that regardless if they knew or not what they were signing up for, they still have equal chance at having received a Mafia role PM as anybody else.
So with that in consideration, I find SFS to genuinely come across as lost at times. We (the populace) get so caught up in the ongoing conversation that we can get away with being a bit ambiguous. To someone reading through after and catching up, things may not seem so clear. As Mafia, it would be easy enough to pick out the things you do understand, and build a case around that. The last thing I would imagine a Mafia would do is take time to attempt to clarify most of those ambiguities, which is indeed what he's doing.
It makes it frustrating for you, as you get little substance, and maybe there is something scummy about that. But overall it just doesn't FEEL like Mafia play to me right now. If I were admittedly new, and Mafia, I would be more concerned with fitting/blending in.
Again, there are small things that suggest he's doing just that (the I'm a humor person too! Post), but I am inclined to lean town right now.
Robz, who do you think is Mafia?
Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?
Did you not read #506 and #519?
Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?
Given that you were asked first and never answered..
Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?
Given that you were asked first and never answered..
I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.
Now you MUST answer this: Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know? It's day one and I've never played the silly game. I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)
Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?
Given that you were asked first and never answered..
I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.
Now you MUST answer this: Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know? It's day one and I've never played the silly game. I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)
I'm not sure that I'm as convinced as some of you that SFS is no longer suspicious (or maybe people are saying he's still suspicious but reading town). Galzria's right, he's no less likely to be mafia because he's new. And if he is that new I'm not sure he would fit our conventions of what a mafia would try to do. Even if he wanted to try to fit in, he may simply not know enough about the game to do it convincingly, so he hasn't tried.
I'm definitely not confident that he is mafia, but I'm not sure why people are already dismissing that possibility. I think if anything, he's hard to read so it's tough to be sure.
Also, I think I am somewhat more suspicious of pops after the exchanges this evening. Not only is his style offputting, but his defense of SFS from nowhere is baffling. He has been really abrupt and unclear, and has offered a bare minimum of reasoning behind his statements. Considering that he is one of the most experienced mafia players among us, I would have expected a lot more. I mean, I guess it would seem like he would go to more effort to look like a helpful townie if he were mafia, but I don't understand his strategies at all so far. It seems like he should be able to be really helpful and he's just not so far.
Crazy thought, but Pops and SFS could be masons.
Who do I suspect? I dont know. I find it weird that Pops JUMPED to my (I think it was "my", but have asked for confirmation) defense with the "He's town, lay off him" comment in #371, but then in #469 ACCUSES me of deleting a post, a notion I have since rebuted (sp?). (Anyone still wondering about my commitment to the notion of not deleting a post should be apparent by my three tries (at #322, 324, and 326) to unvote correctly in bold). Pops was also the first responder (at#64) to my inquiry at potentially playing in the game. In that response, he claimed "I was one of his favorite posters on f.DS". Maybe he thought a newb would be easy to manipulate if he caught a Mafia role?
Crazy thought, but Pops and SFS could be masons.
Possibly, but literally the only substantive thing I've seen from him so far makes it seem like he's actually suspicious of pops.Who do I suspect? I dont know. I find it weird that Pops JUMPED to my (I think it was "my", but have asked for confirmation) defense with the "He's town, lay off him" comment in #371, but then in #469 ACCUSES me of deleting a post, a notion I have since rebuted (sp?). (Anyone still wondering about my commitment to the notion of not deleting a post should be apparent by my three tries (at #322, 324, and 326) to unvote correctly in bold). Pops was also the first responder (at#64) to my inquiry at potentially playing in the game. In that response, he claimed "I was one of his favorite posters on f.DS". Maybe he thought a newb would be easy to manipulate if he caught a Mafia role?
... Even if he wanted to try to fit in, he may simply not know enough about the game to do it convincingly, so he hasn't tried.
Which leads me to Epiphany #4: I'm going to suck at this game. Oh well.
I'm going to bed. The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.
Tricksy hobbitses.
@Galz, I am looking forward to the same, but it's inevitable that we will not all be online and active at the same time. People are in different time zones, have different schedules, jobs, etc. I know I really don't need to tell you any of this but I don't want to see others get super suspicious of those who haven't posted much yet because they haven't been able.
Oh I don't mean that I was/am suspicious of any of those 4. Not outright anyway. Just that their voices will be greatly appreciated when they join in since it's highly likely that at least one got a non-VT PM.
Oh I don't mean that I was/am suspicious of any of those 4. Not outright anyway. Just that their voices will be greatly appreciated when they join in since it's highly likely that at least one got a non-VT PM.
I got what you were saying but I don't want others to misinterpret what you said as suspicion.
And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end????O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.
And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end????O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.
http://xkcd.com/545/ (http://xkcd.com/545/);D
@Galz -
Tables is not off the radar.
I still find his "belif" in Axxle weird, and Axxle's jumpyness as well, as I said, as I said in post #330, like they "share a dirty little secret" and Axxle getting mad for them speaking about it. He hasn't posted since so no much to go on.
Though they might just as well be Masons.
Anyone else feel like SFS's voting Robs was a bit too much trying to avoid answering the question? And than later he still failed to give any input about anyone being suspicious for one or other action or anything.
Ok, not necesarily scummy (I guess scum would accuse somebody, even if just to get the heat off). He just lack an opinion on anyone of anysort, which is not really good.
Another of suspects from that first re-read is Captain_Frisk. He's also a master of flying under the radar, of information without analysis. Even Robz has failed to spot the blah factor to all his posts.
CF, who do you think is mafia and why?
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?
Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:
"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.
"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"
Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.
Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?
@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:I didn't think this was an attempt at humor, I thought it was just goobledeygook. Didnt realize it was actually a requested response from another player, which has since been clarified by Axxle.
Vote: QuicktopicUNVOTE
@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)
@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information? This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.
I do understand that "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give you much to go off of. I disagree that it accomplished the same thing for you as if I had said nothing, because saying nothing is non-responsive. I'm going to treat non-responsive as suspicious, so I'm tracking all my requests for information. I've already said I intend to be fully accountable for what I say and I stand by that. My only two luxuries in this game are a) I don't have to worry about saying anything incriminating, because I'm town, and b) I'm not gonna get worked up about the outcome, because it's my first game.Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?
Given that you were asked first and never answered..
I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.
Now you MUST answer this: Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know? It's day one and I've never played the silly game. I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)
Try to understand. Your answer: "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give me much to go off. You might as well have said nothing. This is why my suspicions tend to land on people who say things like that--because the mafia are the group of people who want to hedge, not say anything incriminating, etc. Especially if they are new players. Do you understand me?
I will tell you that I found Grujah jumping to vote Pops a little odd. And Theorel's post struck me as straight out of the mafia playbook.
Please don't vote for people who irk you. Vote for the mafia.
Oops, I guess I've crossed that line again. I'm answering posts in order while catching up. That might be a less than optimal method.Which leads me to Epiphany #4: I'm going to suck at this game. Oh well.
I'm going to bed. The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.
Tricksy hobbitses.
If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!
And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end????O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?
Oh, and thank you for chiming in on that. I'm interested in hearing others thoughts on his actions to date.
Axxle, I'm still suspicious of how jumpy you are, but I was just fishing for responses from the other active members. I'm happy with what I got.
Suspicions: Axxle, slightly. None others atm.
I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).
SFS, I never accused you of deleting a post, I meant preview deletion.
SFS you down with a discussion QT?
Jothenoah is slightly scummy but not enough to get excited, for me at this point.
Insomniac is still suspicious to me. Grujah's voting is pretty scummy on paper.
So I logged off of Dominion Strategy (except to update that we needed a replacement for M3) and this was at 12 pages. Its at 24. Having just now caught up I see no reason to unvote for pops. His posts are always terse, never quoting what he intends to, and still doesn't explain reasoning.
For now my vote will stay on pops.
Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:
"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.
"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"
Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.
Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
Galz, I wonder how many games we have to play together before you accept that this is how I play town? Here's hoping it doesn't get you lynched this time.
Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on....but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...
Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:
"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.
"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"
Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.
Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.
I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH
Jotheonah never really stood out to me. He made some bad jokes at the beginning but I blame myself partially for talking about how I would be hesitant to vote right away for someone who said that. 24 Pages later I feel we have enough information that I don't hold that true anymore.
"We Townies" well everyone says that, I was very very guilty of that late in M2, and well I was telling the truth.
Post 424 is probably true to an extent, I mean with a mafia of size FOUR. They can probably afford to have one pseudo lurker. But I dont think they're all there and I don't think we need to waste our time there for day 1 as far as I'm concerned. Voting for SFS seems wierd he's not much of a psuedo lurker. I voted for SFS to draw him out cuz I had seen him reading this thread back when it was a reasonable thing to just read the entire thread :P. So this point raises a bit of concern for me but not that much.
I don't yet know what to make of 433. It seems like he might be hiding one or more of his partners there if he's mafia, or he could just be speaking honestly.
THIS POST@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.
I still suspect pops more, I mean we're 24 pages deep and he still hasn't given a good reason to suspect me, I don't find his posts at all helpful (see previous post). I hate to say it pops but if you have conviction in voting for me, give people a reason to vote for me.
@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on....but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...
Actually, I use Google Docs. Can be accessed from anywhere and post game, it can be shared. But I digress.
Vote: Okay with quicktopic
Alright, I think I'm caught up for the day, although I only have about 10-15 minutes, so not enough time to post everything I want to say. Bleh.
Firstly: O and Galzria: Do you two realise your grandstanding wasted about half a day's discussion while we could have been having serious scumhunting? There were people trying to bring discussion back in line, but you two continued to defy them and waste time. I'm not suspicious, but I want you two (especially O) to start playing the game you signed up for.
With that out of the way, not much happened in the first 15 or so pages, which was seriously disappointing. Perhaps the most interesting thing was the Pops bandwagon, which seemed to build up worryingly quickly. My notes tell me O started it, Galzria joined soon after, then Grujah and then Axxle followed. O and Galzria... bleh. I don't want to comment on them. Axxle defended his stance well, Grujah... didn't. I'm not too sure what to make of this bandwagon yet, but when we have a little more information, it'll definitely be worth looking at.
Asides from that, the person who stuck out to me most was Jonah. Like Galzria in II, his posts have a distinct 'The mafia wants to do this but as town, X' feel to them - look at e.g. post 351 and his posts just before that to get an idea of it. Then when Grujah called him out on it in post 354, Jonah stopped doing it altogether after making a very tweed 'oh, well noticed, we need to spot things like that' post. The kind of post mafia makes when they've been caught in the act. Now, I was slightly bummed to get to page 23 and find other people were already voting Jonah, since it might look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but I've laid out evidence, and he's still my prime suspect. I'll post more later when I get the chance, but for now:
Vote: Jtotheonah
@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
By that argument - refusing to answer your question is also pro town. I can see your point - but I don't see why you should be expecting everyone to lift up their skirts for you to peak underneath while you keep all of your clothes on.
Posting reasoning based on what the mafia/town wants to do. Just like that post says. And then Gurjah called out your posts often using 'we town' like phrases, and you stopped.
Posting reasoning based on what the mafia/town wants to do. Just like that post says. And then Gurjah called out your posts often using 'we town' like phrases, and you stopped.
Can you point to a place where I specifically avoided a "we town" construction? Cause I would say that I just haven't happened to use one since then.
Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.
(Emphasis mine)Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.
Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.
Damn, I hate forgetting:And quoting here to re-apply the notion that I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop, to see where it leads us.
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ
THIS POST@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.
Damn, I hate forgetting:And quoting here to re-apply the notion that I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop, to see where it leads us.
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ
THIS POST@CF
If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.
THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.
I have put down my vote once (on SFS) and I've expressed suspicions of exactly 2 people. (2 1/2 if you count *cough*Axxle*cough*). So this is untrue even in spirit. I have a hard time believing that anyone reading my posts at all, let alone closely enough to be confident making a post against me, could make this drastic a mistake. Insomniac, I'd appreciate an explanation.
(Emphasis mine)Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.
Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia. Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused". Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat". I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes. (There I go again). You are welcome to vote for me at any time.
I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you. My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information. I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons) I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.
I was MORE defensive in MIII, but we're not supposed to be talking about that.
I guess I am slightly obsessive about this game. It's important to me to address any accusation made against me. It's my intent to address them each once, briefly, and then move on to more productive ventures. However, your comment, based as it was not even a little on fact, crossed the realm, for me, from requiring self defense to requiring me to point out a potential scum tell to the group.
That whole post of yours is suspicious: adding fuel to the anti-J fire while actually putting your vote elsewhere, chiming in right as a bandwagon got started. But the fact that your case was totally bogus, while, it seemed worth pointing out.
geez, who's defensive now?Come on, J. People remember things differently, like I did when I didn't remember how random O had been in Mafia I.
...
This is stupid. You don't really suspect me and I don't really suspect you and yet we're yelling at each other. Not good. Just please be more careful about posting verifiably untrue things in the future.
Also should say that I'm enjoying seeing SFS breaking out of his noob shell and taking stances on things, especially since it really does seem to be significantly different and not sheepish at all.
New emphasis mine(Emphasis mine)Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.
Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia. Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused". Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat". I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes. (There I go again). You are welcome to vote for me at any time.
I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you. My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information. I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons) I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.
Sigh. Your posts read too newbie-ish to me to be purposefully naive (purposeful naivety is the default strategy I assume the mafia, especially new mafia will take). So I didn't suspect you as much. I pressed you harder because you were available, asked for questions, and responded. And anyway, if you think THAT was pressing, you are in for a rough ride. I just asked you a couple questions, man.
Well, I must have missed you mentioning your newness again. If you or others take this is a sign that I don't keep my word, fine. Really, I was just trying to urge you not to de-emphasize your abilities because it makes me suspicious. I'm not the type of player who votes early or frequently--I have never changed my vote to someone else in any round of mafia--so no, I wasn't actually going to vote for you. Although I admit it's getting more and more tempting--not because I'm annoyed by you (though I am), but because your posts have rapidly been gaining focus. Now you are a professional poker player? But oh, you don't know what you're doing, or what a rickroll is, or how the game is played. Seems more and more like intentionally naive play, actually.
geez, who's defensive now?Come on, J. People remember things differently, like I did when I didn't remember how random O had been in Mafia I.
...
This is stupid. You don't really suspect me and I don't really suspect you and yet we're yelling at each other. Not good. Just please be more careful about posting verifiably untrue things in the future.
J is doing things that I find odd and suspicious even just today. I only got a gist of it this morning but I'll come back during lunch break with more concrete things, but the first thing that comes to mind is that threat he made to Galz about getting lynched. What was that about?
Also should say that I'm enjoying seeing SFS breaking out of his noob shell and taking stances on things, especially since it really does seem to be significantly different and not sheepish at all.
Yes! I also loved reading SFS's calling out of RobZ.
@RobZ - is it really true that you've never unvoted? That's some serious boldness. If everyone played that way - you would never lynch.
New emphasis mine(Emphasis mine)Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.
Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia. Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused". Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat". I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes. (There I go again). You are welcome to vote for me at any time.
I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you. My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information. I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.
UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons) I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.
Sigh. Your posts read too newbie-ish to me to be purposefully naive (purposeful naivety is the default strategy I assume the mafia, especially new mafia will take). So I didn't suspect you as much. I pressed you harder because you were available, asked for questions, and responded. And anyway, if you think THAT was pressing, you are in for a rough ride. I just asked you a couple questions, man.
Well, I must have missed you mentioning your newness again. If you or others take this is a sign that I don't keep my word, fine. Really, I was just trying to urge you not to de-emphasize your abilities because it makes me suspicious. I'm not the type of player who votes early or frequently--I have never changed my vote to someone else in any round of mafia--so no, I wasn't actually going to vote for you. Although I admit it's getting more and more tempting--not because I'm annoyed by you (though I am), but because your posts have rapidly been gaining focus. Now you are a professional poker player? But oh, you don't know what you're doing, or what a rickroll is, or how the game is played. Seems more and more like intentionally naive play, actually.
So in your Mafia-the-Game belief system, what's the difference between "not keeping your word" and the notion of a blatant falsehood, which you seem to have made in #544 (p22) if indeed, as you say now, you never intended to vote for me, even if the condition were fulfilled?
If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!
He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.
So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.
He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.
So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.
I'd be more suspicious of the guy who ignored your crusade and hoped it would go away, personally. But that seemed to have worked great for pops, so I'mma try the same thing. Be back in a few hours. Don't kill me.
SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
What is this? I don't even...
Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?
Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me
So you're saying if he is a pro at online poker and forum mafia you would sheep him?SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
What is this? I don't even...
Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?
Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me
The word you're looking for is "vouched".
I don't care if anyone vouches me. As long as everyone sheeps my reads when I flip town.
He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.
So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.
Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?Indeed, because it's not the strongest way for me to play the game.
@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.
Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?
@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.
DSell: CF's arguments against him could apply to a lot of people. His vote seemed to come out of no where. DSell hasn't really done much to give me a read on him either way.
Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?
@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.
I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.
You need a semicolon there.Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?
@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.
I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.
I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.You need a semicolon there.
Count the words.I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.You need a semicolon there.
This is true; however, I don't see how this is helping your recently stated goal of helping people catch up who are pages behind.
Count the words.
My actions shouldn't make you want to vote me. Lynch mafia, not scum.Count the words.
It's like you are daring us to vote for you. Why?
Right now, I'm feeling some nervousness about DSell. He's hanging around the middle post count wise, and his major contributions to date have been:
1. Jumping on pops for his terse play yesterday.
2. Railing on SFS - which reads like "picking on noob and hoping he cracks" Maybe this is good play, but it seemed to go on a little further than was strictly necessary.
While I don't like pops' play, I'm putting him in the "O" camp for now... as in too crazy to get a meaningful read - so I saw DSell as just potentially trying to rile up the town.
Vote: DSell
Right now, I'm feeling some nervousness about DSell. He's hanging around the middle post count wise, and his major contributions to date have been:
1. Jumping on pops for his terse play yesterday.
2. Railing on SFS - which reads like "picking on noob and hoping he cracks" Maybe this is good play, but it seemed to go on a little further than was strictly necessary.
While I don't like pops' play, I'm putting him in the "O" camp for now... as in too crazy to get a meaningful read - so I saw DSell as just potentially trying to rile up the town.
Vote: DSell
So you're saying if he is a pro at online poker and forum mafia you would sheep him?SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
What is this? I don't even...
Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?
Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me
Insomniac's vote on me is dead serious
That being said, Dsell did bandwagon *twice*.
Insomniac's vote on me is dead serious
I realized that after he accused me of starting a bandwagon. ;)
That being said, Dsell did bandwagon *twice*.
I did NOT bandwagon on pops. I was frustrated with him, but I specifically did not vote for him because 1) I did not want to vote when I was upset, better to cool down and think things through, and 2) things were really moving fast. The vote has not gone anywhere, which I think is good for this point of the game, but I agree with the people who suspect that at least one mafia was on board there (if pops is town, so I guess we can't know for sure). I will try to address that in a later post.
So.. we're voting for people with a *middle* vote count now?
Hey, mafia buddies, you should probably start posting less or more, either one will get Captain Frisk less suspicious of you!
I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me. I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.You better watch out O.
For the record, I now arbitrarily suspect Green Opal. My reasons are my own. ;)
---
Better?
Responds to... some post number
If I was in my first game I would vote for me right now. I have a very different mindset than everyone else in this game, which causes the faulty assumption that it arises from a unique motivation. No, let me rephrase that. A unique wincon.
Consider that most players around here have mentioned at one point or another that they are afraid of getting nightkilled as town. That is really backwards thinking. As VT you should never be scared of getting NKed as town, and as a PR you should care only a smidge more about whether you're appearing so protown you will be NKed. It's not a team mentality, someone has to get NKed. It might as well be you.
A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. Oftentimes the two day one lynches will be opposite philosophies of what prism through which to view the events of the day. It arises from many statements being true or false, many pairs of players that are town exclusive-or scum, or two ways of identifying the "scumhiding wagon" and the "idiothiding wagon" of the day. I don't mean idiot in a rude way since you folks seem rather sensitive and I have to remember some of you are new the Internet and all, I just mean that one wagon is characterized by being misguided.
Sometimes one prism will have a vague idea of what's going on but won't pinpoint who's really the scum within that group of interpretations. Sometimes the prism very clearly has someone picked out, as in, if we're going to look at the game in this manner at all, X is definitely scum.
My goal is to focus the other prism. When a town is sure it has caught scum, lynches it, and then realizes it has failed, it always switches prisms. Actually a lot of times I catch scum because they'll be the ones that forget to switch prisms. I want to make sure that the game heads in the best direction I can point it day 2, whether I'm there or not.
joth is probably not scum, but I'm actually unsure enough about that that I could roll with procrastinating investigation of his wagon until after he flips. But I do think if joth is town that his wagon is more likely to contain scum than mine is. This is some of the pointing I'm trying to do. SFS is town, that is also some pointing. I announced it in a way that was abrupt because it gets people talking, like fanning the feathers of so many angry male peacocks so I can read the patterns. I described why he was town earlier and you should try to appreciate the reasoning in my explanation and put yourself in his shoes. The poker joke was meant to highlight the concept of sheeping and see how people felt about it and how that related to their reactions to my declarations. What I've gotten from it is -1 point for Insomniac because he understands it conceptually but voted me for trying to influence others about SFS.
A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
I do find it interesting that:
A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.
Vote: JotheonahA similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
longpostYay, pops is back. From this post it looks like you're going to post like this more often, do that.
I do find it interesting that:
A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.
I like how you put my actions in a mafia narrative.
@A I had sleep and then graduation practice
@B You're correct here
@C I was dismissive of your crap logic, and not dismissive of your not crap logic. Neither of those was an indicator of my overall suspicion of Dsell
@D Nobody has, very true. None of either the mafia or the town (or SK) has found your claim very substantitive. Just like people always seem to ignore it when I cast suspicion on you.
I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched.
I do find it interesting that:
A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.
Contrast this to pops
A. Acts like a jerk.
B. Refuses to defend himself and taunts the town.
C. Bandwagon starts and grows fast, both with votes and suspicions.
D. Calms down as its clear that the frenzy isn't quite enough.
Vote: JotheonahA similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
I'm concurrently looking through J's old posts and keeping up with the thread but I think my vote will go to J for this incredibly premature VT roleclaim.
Vote: JotheonahA similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
I'm concurrently looking through J's old posts and keeping up with the thread but I think my vote will go to J for this incredibly premature VT roleclaim.
You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role. As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
If nothing else it can make the mafia's nightkill more likely to hit a power role.
P-P edit: Ninja'd by O. Oh well. Jo, you have got to reign it in. "Stupid townie" play is largely what has resulted in lynches of town in the other mafia games. :-\
As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
If nothing else it can make the mafia's nightkill more likely to hit a power role.
P-P edit: Ninja'd by O. Oh well. Jo, you have got to reign it in. "Stupid townie" play is largely what has resulted in lynches of town in the other mafia games. :-\
In Mafia II, I tend to think SMART town play was the culprit. Or should I say "smart" town play.
I do find it interesting that:
A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.
Contrast this to pops
A. Acts like a jerk.
B. Refuses to defend himself and taunts the town.
C. Bandwagon starts and grows fast, both with votes and suspicions.
D. Calms down as its clear that the frenzy isn't quite enough.
I'm not quite sure who you are addressing here? It doesn't sound like you are addressing me. I'm also not sure what your conclusions are. In case it was to me, I didn't ignore your vote, I responded as soon as I could after catching up.
and then hedged by saying that well, yeah you had been bandwagoning.
Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath. Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway. I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.
Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath. Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway. I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.
Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath. Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway. I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.
*puts away Jester mask*
Count the words.I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.You need a semicolon there.
This is true; however, I don't see how this is helping your recently stated goal of helping people catch up who are pages behind.
Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath. Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway. I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.
*puts away Jester mask*
But Volt wouldn't put TWO jester's in this game would he?
Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.
Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.
That's by design.
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
Question for pops:Unvote; Vote: Jotheonah This is the only way I know of to vote for you again.
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.
Might as well go for the trifecta, right? Also, give me some credit, at least I asked first.
SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
If you go to a player's profile, then on the left side of that page will be a "Show all posts" option.Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?
@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.
I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.
That is it exactly. You can read me like a book.
Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.
J doesn't strike me as a bad player, so I don't believe it's a mistake - despite his claim. I'm left being highly suspicious, but I'm not interested in actually lynching him today.
- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone. If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another. While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.
Mafia are on the joth wagon, not on my wagon. My wagon is just misguided townies.Wait, I better go read mine.
Joth is a very easy vote, but townie gut should exonerate his later posting. I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me. I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.
My opinion of Tables is that he is normally very active and insightful but real life/ the enormousness of this thread is keeping him from keeping the kind of notes he would like to...
I'd like to request a 6 page volume by Galzria on the issue, otherwise I can't really settle my thoughts.
So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)
Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath. Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway. I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.So all roleclaiming is bad, or just when it is premature? Can you tell me why you hold this viewpoint?
Tables, I never said I thought jo was innocent. I don't have time to go look for quotes right now, but I'm pretty sure I've consistently said he was slightly suspicious, just not moreso than a lot of other people.
For the record, his crazy erratic play has made me less suspicious of him. He doesn't strike me as the type to play scum with that particular strategy.
I have to sign off for a bit. Might be on before bed.
...(Emphasis mine)
jotheonah: SO far his play looks like town play to me, especially seeing as coming off the train wreck that was Mafia II changing up his play style is a sensible move. He looks the tiniest bit scummy to me, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
...
DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.
...SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what. ...(emphasis mine)
Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.
SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.
SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.
I don't really understand how a not-3-weeks lynch is bad for town
(Bold emphasis mine)A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.
By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.
TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.
SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.
So here's what I observed:
Theorel's points about Joth in post 596
Glooble's points about Joth in post 627
These two seemed a bit strange. At the time, Joth was in a little danger - not much, but enough for say scum to be concerned. And both of these made what seemed to me to be a slightly forced 'I think he's town let's back off' post. Like they were covering for scum to some degree.
Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.
By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.
TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.
SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.
Yes. Any arbitrarily grabbed group of five likely contains one Mafia. And on day one, when we have next to no information, that seemed like as good a place for me to start as any. At this point, that's looking like less of a good idea, but it lead me to suspect Gru, and he still looks scummy to me.
VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.
@Galz
I don't get the big difference, that's what I mean, maybe it came out wrong but it seems to me both of our "paraphrasings" have the same meaning.
And of course you gave reasons.
This post is only in reference to the topic of the moment: jotheonah.
This is in reference to Axxle's question: why not wanting the day to end early? Because I don't believe a full 8 town members will agree to lynch someone in quick order. That's 2/3 of the town agreeing to lynch someone on flimsy evidence and poor defense. I don't think a bandwagon full of townies will naturally develop over the course of two days. If it's developed its unnatural, which means that there's mafia in there somewhere. A lynch composed of townies will develop slowly a vote here or there, after another day it may pick up another vote, etc. That's my opinion, you may disagree that's fine. I disagree with a lot of your opinions and a lot of pops' opinions.
So, I think jotheonah is innocent because mafia is voting for him. He could be witch...since mafia has no way of knowing who that is. Could also explain his survivalist tendencies. But Witch will be much harder to detect, I'm not really interested in a witch-hunt especially when one may not even exist. I'm much more interested in mafia, because they're going to give us information we can actually use, like trying to pull together bandwagons of town.
Pressure is totally irrelevant. We have gotten no information out of jotheonah in this bandwagon, bandwagons will never give you information about the person being attacked. What it does is give us information about is everybody else. So, whatever you think jo's shown you you should disregard. You should look around at everyone else, just as the push on pops got us nothing from pops (except that he's smart enough to keep quiet until it blows over). So suggesting the possibility of an early lynch for pressure is IMO poor town play. It reads to me like you didn't understand the strategy articles you linked to before.
Finally, we could kill jo to find out he's town, or we could just accept that townie bandwagons are slower than this, and recognize he's town before we kill him. Then we can look at the 6(or 7 if you like) votes he's gotten say "there's probably 2 mafia there", and have a 1/3 chance of hitting a mafia. That's way better than the 1/14 chance that jo's mafia, and the astronomically small chance that 7 townies have all of their own accord said "that's the mafia right there yessir". So, if you're mafia voting for jo, well your being suspicious. If you're townie voting for jo, you should be saying "who's pulling my strings." "Who am I listening to" and "Why am I not being skeptical of all these voices, when I know some of them are mafia". Keep in mind that for the mafia, there is no chance that jo is one of them. They already know he's town, and they already know they want to lynch him. They're just trying to convince you.
Yea, lets wait until we get solid evidence and even poorer defense..
Owait, it's day one.
note I actually haven't voted for J though; I don't believe he's mafia, I just don't like your logic either.
(Post being made immediately after my last one)
Short analysis on everyone. Don't take my town/scum reads too far, nobody has gotten far enough along either direction I want to condem them or rush to their defence if they were under fire.
Oh, and I'm probably going to use male pronouns for everyone. Apologies if this is incorrect for anyone.
Galzria: Was somewhat distracting early, which was very different from his style (as mafia) in II. I don't have a lot else on him, which suggests there's been nothing I've found really suspicious. I actually have a few notes on him justifying his choices, which is generall good (367, 563). Overall, slight town read.
DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.
Imsomniac: Considering there's been some discussion regarding him lately, I don't have much on him from beyond the start of the game. What I do have doesn't really stick out to me at all. He has one or two good posts I've noted (117). No significant read yet.
Robz: He's playing very similarly to how he did in Mafia II, but also differently. He's made a few good analysis posts, and interestingly ripped apart on of Theorel's posts without being actually suspicious of Theorel (429). Robz, do you have any strong opinion on Theorel now? Slight town read.
Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.
O: Ugh... I stopped taking notes on him around page 10 for a bit, because he was just getting in the way. It's improved now, which is good. The notes I do have a pretty irrelevant in light of everything that's happened (things like, his random votes and stuff). I have yet to see any really good analysis from him.
Axxle: We all saw my scheme regarding Axxle early game, and despite explaining it was only that pretty early, it still somehow managed to generate some discussion about 18 pages later. Go figure. Axxle's been playing a very pro-town game, he linked very quickly to a useful article (97), he's been trying to keep discussion on track and not waste our precious time (133), he even did a very good thing of turning my early statement about him around to generate discussion. After the early game, he's said less, but what he has said I've found was generally useful and on topic. I've noted a few people being suspicious of him, but I haven't seen them really give reasons - which is a shame. Overall, Axxle is still my strongest town read.
Theorel: The main thing that's caught my eye is his defending of Joth (596, 609), which I've already pointed out. His early posts didn't strike me as overly town or overly mafia. Really, it's the defending Joth that's really stuck out to me. Overall I have a slight scum read, but it's going to depend a lot on what/if Joth flips when he's lynched.
Glooble: I have nothing on him at all before post 627. In his posts (especially 663) the main thing I take offence with is the misuse of statistics. In particular, the slippery slope argument he seemed to follow in that there's likely statistically at least one scum in (whichever bandwagon it was I can't remember), therefore, we should try and ferret out the one scum in that bandwagon. As town, we have no way to really know if the four (or whatever) people on that wagon are town or scum, and that wagon existing doesn't really make it more likely there's a scum on it. As mafia of course, he'd know perfectly well there was (no) scum on it, and that'd make it a very good place to divert attention to. He also seems to defend Joth in a deflective sort of way, which I dislike. Overall, a somewhat scum read.
Popsofctown: Ugh. Pops, you're being extremely difficult this game. One part of me thinks you're trying to be 'interesting' so people don't want to kill you, just want you to stick around and see what you do for a while. The other part of me thinks you're playing a deep town game even I don't properly understand. The posts you've actually made I cared to record have been good, and you've defended your opinions well (234, 469, 669). I think I have a slight town read from you... but I honestly don't really know.
Tables: Hi.
Grujah: Early on, I have that Grujah was making a lot of 'information, not analysis' type posts (330 especially). Since then he picked up on one part of Joth's behaviour, but that's about all I have that he did. Also voting with no reason, on a bandwagon no less (383). No strong read, but I have my eye on him. Which I guess means a slight Scum read?
Joth: I've already laid down my views on him. It's the flip-flopping behavior after Grujah's accusation, and the mafia viewpoint things that disturbed me to start, and this recent behaviour hasn't helped much. Scum read.
SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.
Green Opal: I have basically nothing noted about him. Only that he was the first one to vote Joth recently, although the 2nd and 3rd votes (Galzria and me respectively) were given for totally different reasons. The 4th was Axxle for his vanilla claim. No real read.
And that's everything I've thought so far. Now to reread the probably 50 new posts which occured while I was typing.
(Pre post edit: Oh it's 'only' 16)
A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch. While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
Question for pops:for starters.
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
refused to be scum hunted (actively discouraged the gathering of information).When did that happen? I refuse to be accused of actively discouraging information gathering. But if you're referring to the whole "Theory not game" talk then I have nothing more to say except that I don't consider it useful information.
I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early. That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.
@Insomniac
"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"
Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.
The play has been too terrible to be Mafia.
Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.
That's by design.
How exactly does discussing this help? I fail to see it. You learn what someone's general ideas of how to play the game are, but those aren't immutable. And we'd just run around in circles talking about hypothetical situations.@Insomniac
"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"
Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.
An example of exactly that question that you then wrote off as useless theory talk.
I thought we were reengaging in the first part. I'm surprised you're that convinced.
@Galz
I think simply we should use as much time as we need to lynch the right person. I don't think there is any particular length of time we ought to observe. I will say that being under no pressure from a deadline is nice. Tbh, the fact that everyone has voted already (and I presume that pretty much all of the current votes are serious) suggests to me that people are in fact ready to lynch...if enough people are thinking the same way as they are. While I agree with Theorel that many bandwagons are going to include some mafia, I also think it doesn't make sense to abandon your convictions because others agree with you.
@Galz, I actually wasn't talking about you at all. I was speaking generally about abandoning convictions because "a lot of votes must mean this is a mafia-led bandwagon." I can see how you would think I was talking about you, though.
Oh, sorry sorry. Gosh I'm making a lot of typos.@Galz, I actually wasn't talking about you at all. I was speaking generally about abandoning convictions because "a lot of votes must mean this is a mafia-led bandwagon." I can see how you would think I was talking about you, though.
I see your point now, though I was offering my input on post #760, like you asked for in #774.
well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)
I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.
well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)
I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.
well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)
I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.
I give myself 0/10... dear god.
I guess I still can't delete that post.
- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone. If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another. While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.
You're logical and clearheaded enough that this willing misinterpretation is confusing. My point was that if mafia believe Jo's VT roleclaim (which they probably do if Jo is NOT mafia), then the mafia won't kill him and have a higher chance of hitting a power role.
@Capt_Frisk: looks good to me. I think I've made it pretty clear, but I find any quick bandwagons suspicious, and thus find their recipients less-so.
Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me. One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect". I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening. And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.
...SFS: (6th vote)(emphasis mine)
Lots of newbishness, some defensiveness, which he sites as defending himself, rather than defensiveness. I don't see much mafia-like here, except the vote for jo. "Wanting to see what happens" could be a good reason for a sixth vote (if you think it'll make townies jump ship, or bring a mafia out for vote 7) but disappearing afterwards is bad. If you really think he's mafia say-so...if you don't you shouldn't be placing a 6th vote and disappearing.
Suspicion: Low-Medium (30%)...
I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel. Just look at all that original analysis. Insane.
@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself. Of course that's not a mafia move. And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked. I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?
given the two replies between...I think something should be said re: jotheonah cracked which gave us info:
I disagree...and I will site: Day 1 pressure recipients: TINAS cracked (town), Morgrim cracked (town), Galz cracked (town). jo cracked...really, you really think that's mafia?
I guess that must be the main difference between us, I see value in the discussion around jo (it's value-rich), you see value in the mad ravings of a nearly dead-man (jo). Now, he cracked pretty easy, but so did morgrim. IMO This is EXACTLY what mafia wants.
So, for all the jo voters, IMO either you're mafia, or you're listening to what they want you to hear.
OK, so this is the fifth-ish use of the word "cracked". What the hell does it mean in the context of this game?
Ok.I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel. Just look at all that original analysis. Insane.
@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself. Of course that's not a mafia move. And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked. I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?
Galzria in M3.
Theorel, thank you for all the great thoughts. I still want to see more people chime in on my post #760, but I agree with you that there may be something to Dsell as Mafia. Nothing he had done individually had stood out, but I had forgotten that he offered (useless theory talk*) his thoughts on D1 game length. And your right, his actions don't meet his words, which was my #1 scum hunting tell.
So once I get more input on Axxle, whom I feel is in that same camp, I'll consider where we're at, and if a change in vote is necessary.
Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.
Note: Tables said he'd be out for 36 hours...so you're not going to get an answer to that question any time soon.
Ok.I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel. Just look at all that original analysis. Insane.
@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself. Of course that's not a mafia move. And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked. I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?
Galzria in M3.
And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town.
And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up. I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.
What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now
Unvote
PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.
Ok.I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel. Just look at all that original analysis. Insane.
@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself. Of course that's not a mafia move. And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked. I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?
Galzria in M3.
And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town.
And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up. I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.
What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now
Unvote
PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.
Well, I'm not getting off the bandwagon. I still feel like we have good reason to suspect Jo. What I like about my vote for Jo is it's based on hard evidence. He VT roleclaimed when there was no reason to do so. This hurts the town, because well we don't now if we believe him. But the mafia will believe him and know not to target him in the night, because they would rather kill a power townie. Then Jo asked whether he should vote for himself because he's bungled things. I've said this before, but it most closely reminds of TINAS in MI. Now, TINAS ended up being the Cop, that's true. But he was in a sense lying; he falsely claimed VT. And he was ready to go to the grave as a Cop. It worked out for him and for us, but... it was a crazy, crazy move. And I don't think that's what Jo is doing.
Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me. One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect". I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening. And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.
Be careful about DSell - O might call you a bad town for suspecting him, but I was happy to see someone else come to the same conclusion.
If the mafia always believe VT claims then they're horrible mafia and claiming VT is the best thing you can do if you are a power role...
Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.
Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.
Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.
I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.
AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT
AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT
Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.
I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.
True, but the difference is here you've been all over multiple people. Admittedly there's been a lot more said here than there, so I might be overstating things.
Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.
At the risk of talking about mafia theory, you know that 50% is like, amazing, best scumhunt ever odds, right? With 15 players and 3 mafia, if we alternated mislynching and lynching, we'd get
As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.
Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.
Unvote
Vote: Axxle
Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.
Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.
Unvote
Vote: Axxle
Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.
Now this one's more confusing, but probably still meant to be MIII....
As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.
Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more
I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...At least not with the same players.
Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic.I like having control and removing chaos in games like this where it's easy for it to get out of hand.
@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure. This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses. It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.
Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more
As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.
Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more
I think his bad town play is indicative of him being mafia, or at least as much an indicator as I am liable to get this round.
In MII, Jo fought tooth and nail against any accusations against him. The way he has sort of hung his head in shame, to me, is his best tactic for survival as mafia: just hope we forget about it. And there's a good chance we will.
I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...
I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...
So not everyone who plays mafia is robz?
@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure. This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses. It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.
I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!
I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!
Alright, I said I wouldn't respond, but if this legitimately confusing it may be important to some people. I do and will completely ignore what any person under pressure says. If they defend themselves they're just as much mafia as they were before, or conversely just as much town. If I have determined that you are likely mafia, and you go under pressure there is nothing YOU can say that will convince me otherwise, you can claim VT, you can suicide, you can roleclaim, I don't care, it's a move to try to get out of pressure, or temporary insanity induced by pressure. Now someone else might make some points refuting evidence, pointing elsewhere, etc...but nothing you says will matter. So, no acquitting, no condemning, you may as well be silent as pops, it's not going to influence my vote.
But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.
Joth, why do you want me to wait for tomorrow? Give me content now. Convince me you're Innocent Child with the scumhunting of a Cop and I will not lynch you today.
@O. What about you? still think this stage has no info?
But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.
I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760. I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.
In the interest of seeing where this goes:
@Grujah, you got anything to add?
In the interest of seeing where this goes:
This feels like the 5th or 6th time I've seen this (it might only be the second, but its certainly at least the second).
There's nothing inherently wrong with the statement as long as you also recognize that voting makes the statement "I am happy with player _X_ getting lynched tonight".
I'm unconcerned about Robz's issues with my being a newb, or with my commenting on same. Robz knows how to vote for me, and I've reminded him he's welcome to do so. Thanks for giving me a platform to remind him again.I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760. I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.
Are you trying to antagonize RobZ again? (emphasis mine in quote).
I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early. That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.I was trying to say that I am not in favor if delaying lynches just for the sake of delaying them.
He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754. I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing. I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory. Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.
Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.
Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town. If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly? If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?
I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early. That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.I was trying to say that I am not in favor if delaying lynches just for the sake of delaying them.
I have 3 votes on me, Galz, J and now CF.
I still need to evaluate DSell and J which is why I unvoted and haven't voted again.
In an earlier post, C_F said this referring to Axxle, then voted for Axxle:He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754. I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing. I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory. Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.
Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.
Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town. If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly? If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?
I agree with this analysis.
UNVOTE
VOTE: Axxle
If I've counted correctly, this would be 4 votes.
The play has been too terrible to be Mafia.
The problem with this is that I don't think jotheonah is actually a terrible player. It's definitely looked like a series of blunders, but the more I read things like this...Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.
That's by design.
...the more I believe he thinks he is in control of his game. So on that front I agree with Robz and, I guess, O.
Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.
Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.
This is post #203 from me. Yep, I'm all for having plenty of time, not being on a strict deadline. I love that we have three weeks here rather than 1 week like in MIII. But I haven't changed my position at all! "I don't want to try to lynch too early." A too-early lynch is nothing but anti-town. It's just almost inevitable that there will be mafia aboard the bandwagon. That's why I pulled away from the pops bandwagon even though I really wanted to vote. It didn't feel right, it built up too fast and it was too early.
Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.
Ah, that post was kind of stream of consciousness, which is why the start of it doesn't match the conclusion.
Axxle, I would like to see your thoughts on the J / DSell situation.
Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up. What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?
Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up. What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?I think mafia'll feel less panicked and be able to respond in a slightly slower but calmer manner in order to not make mistakes.
#1 - You didn't really explain your backing off of J. You were so strongly in favor of J that you double voted; but then you unvoted because of a side accusation between theorel and DSell? I don't see how the two are connected.I thought someone mentioned that it was DSell pushing the J wagon from the start, I forget who, and was worried that my vote was being heavily influenced by that. Now I see that isn't the case so I guess my vote can return:
Vote: Axxle
Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.
I hate to jump back 10 pages, but this bugged me while reading last night.
Can I ask what you would consider a display of skill at this game on Day 1 to look like?
+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.
Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?
Objectively I don't see how you can think the second bandwagon of any substance is late in the day. Post-count is irrelevant to game stage, that's a weak argument.
As to serious votes: I had not yet cast a serious vote (if Grujah had picked up speed I would have thought of him as a mafia fall-boy, but joth stole the show so my experiment failed). I don't believe pops has cast a "serious" vote (dunno what that would look like). I feel unconfident of any of O's votes being serious (though maybe I misread him). Galz hadn't cast one yet (that's why he jumped off the joth-wagon). Tables hadn't cast one (he was nervous about 6 votes). SFS hadn't cast one (he wanted to "see what would happen", though his previous vote on Robz might be characterized as serious, I can't imagine any first-vote on someone as serious...it's always a feel-them-out vote). Which means that I wouldn't have characterized Green_Opal's vote as serious (although I think he had clarified that he was happy sticking around). Maybe you really misread the game-state there?
I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position. You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it. We could go back and forth, but what's the point? You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting. You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you. There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with. And you're not even under pressure yet.(Bold emphasis mine)
I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position. You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it. We could go back and forth, but what's the point? You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting. You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you. There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with. And you're not even under pressure yet.
My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:
I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel. Just look at all that original analysis. Insane.
We're talking way too much theory and not enough game meat. One of the things that the article I linked to tried to warn us about. Even more so considering what kind of forum we are on. We'll fall into the trap of voting for people who don't agree with our specific playstyle instead of who we think is scummy.
Thank you Tables for trying to create discussion but that kind of passive questioning doesn't seem to be getting us anywhere either.
jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.
I will come up with something to spur conversation in a sec, just want to get this out there.
I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early. That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.
My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:
Why do I always get uneasy when G makes a reasonable point?
My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:
Why do I always get uneasy when G makes a reasonable point?
Man, life is going to be hell for me in these games.
Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role. As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
But as the mafia make that decision (about who is most likely to be a power role), they're presented with a whole big WIFOM. They only know for sure if they investigate me, in which case they'd know for sure anyway. I just ... don't think it's that big a deal.
And none of this explains why Axxle thinks it's worthy of a vote, because I can't see even a little bit why it makes sense for the mafia, for the reasons I explained earlier.
Oh look, I'm getting worked up again. Meh.
I don't wish to debate this, but claiming a non-role does not seem to me on par with claiming a role, for various reasons. VT is what everyone's supposed to assume everyone else is anyway. The fact that I said it means nothing. You have no reason to believe or disbelieve me, nor do the mafia. It is, in my mind, very much like not claiming. In future games, I will avoid it because it clearly irks people. But really, I kinda think it's a nonissue.
I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble, and I don't get a town read from Grujah. The Grujah wagon seems to me to be the most authentic wagon out there. I don't think Grujah is actually online/around, so his lack of a defense is neither suspicious nor non-suspicious. But for now, I'm going to go ahead and
Vote: Grujah
For the record, he was the third suspect in my readthrough anyway, and my suspicion of CF wasn't really doing anything/going anywhere (partly cause I got real distracted by the votes on me, my own meditation on defensiveness and town play, and, oh yeah, meatspace stuff, and didn't have the time/energy to actually pursue it.)
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
See, I would have thought that at least someone would read that question as hypothetical. But like, you're all sure I'd actually do it.
So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.) Now if anyone but me gets lynched (according to lots of people) I'm a nighttime liability to the town. So in that case, I ask again, isn't it pro-town for me to facilitate my own lynch?
Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.
Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.
Unvote
Vote: Axxle
Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.
+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.
Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?
Then, this:Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.
I bandwagoned at those times because I was being convinced by other people on it, and then pops and J did something stupid and scummy that pushed me over the edge to vote. Can't check specifics because I'm on phone and limited on time.
Hey guise... we can still lynch Popsofctown!
I don't like the old I'll-do-nothing-and-eventually-people-will-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy
Hey guise... we can still lynch Popsofctown!
I don't like the old I'll-do-nothing-and-eventually-people-will-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy
Then, this:Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.
Cutting out much of your post, but only because I agree with most of it. This here, however, I want to point out, is more akin to how TINAS played in M-I. Asking (or threatening) and then not doing. And we know the outcome of that. You were also VERY suspicious of TINAS over the play, so I don't think that you've changed at all (or that your suspicion is unjustified).
I believe I've said before, and I don't mind repeating:
I think Jo *could* be Mafia trying to play the "flipped-out" card that has hit townies in the past. I just think that I feel I'm more likely to hit Mafia lynching Axxle today than Jo. With that said, I have NO problems with seeing Jo die D1 as a Policy Lynch. If we don't discourage this type of play, from town and Mafia alike, we'll never know if it's truthful or bluffing. But for my money, I would *rather* kill a Mafia than enforce a Policy Lynch, hence my vote on Axxle, and not Jo right now.
I have some quibbles with your analysis (though as I've said before, my play is indefensible, so I won't defend it. I will explain it as best I can).
I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?
You also seem to be saying it would be more pro-town of me to actually self-vote, but clearly that's laughable because everyone knows and agrees that it's bad play for a town player to vote for himself.
Finally you say I'm doing things to keep myself alive - but I'm really not. You guys have done that. The unvotes on me were sincere unvotes from people who now have town reads on me. If you're going to say that I manipulated those players into removing their votes, I think you have an obligation to indicate how I accomplished that feat. For that matter, where do I clearly want to be alive? My reaction to my lynch wagon was pretty much to disappear and disengage from the game (although part of that was RL obligations). I honestly did not expect to come back Wednesday morning and find myself still alive.
Then, this:Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.
Cutting out much of your post, but only because I agree with most of it. This here, however, I want to point out, is more akin to how TINAS played in M-I. Asking (or threatening) and then not doing. And we know the outcome of that. You were also VERY suspicious of TINAS over the play, so I don't think that you've changed at all (or that your suspicion is unjustified).
I believe I've said before, and I don't mind repeating:
I think Jo *could* be Mafia trying to play the "flipped-out" card that has hit townies in the past. I just think that I feel I'm more likely to hit Mafia lynching Axxle today than Jo. With that said, I have NO problems with seeing Jo die D1 as a Policy Lynch. If we don't discourage this type of play, from town and Mafia alike, we'll never know if it's truthful or bluffing. But for my money, I would *rather* kill a Mafia than enforce a Policy Lynch, hence my vote on Axxle, and not Jo right now.
That's true, and I was wrong about TINAS. But I was right in one way--he WAS lying about his role. It just so happened he was lying in a beneficial way. It was a crazy move, one that only someone like TINAS I think is capable of, and I doubt it's what Jo is doing. But I could be wrong.
So, I guess I'm just not totally sure what the case against Axxle is, other than he switched his votes at some incriminating times. Could someone please make the case?
I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?
Frisk if my records are correct hasn't placed anything but a first vote on someone, until Axxle, Joth is Joth, Pops hasn't been bandwagoning at all, and I think that leaves SFS as the only one I'm really interested in.
So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.
So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.
Take your time - we are truly in no rush. I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.
So - we have some defenders. RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.
Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle? Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?
I'm with Galz (spider sense tingling!) that J is not off the hook - but I would assume that with at least 11 town, if we lynched Axxle AND he flips town, he'd get a strong consideration for some night time actions.
Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle? Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?
So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.
Take your time - we are truly in no rush. I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.
So - we have some defenders. RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.
. It seems quite odd.
I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).
I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).
Unfortunately, Pops was the 5th vote. That leaves 2 people with arguments, J (who could probably walk up here with someones username & password to verify the contents of the PM from Volt and no-one would believe him), SFS who's reasons were something akin to "I agree with CF", and pops, who gave no reason.
I believe Glooble gave a reason, but no vote.
Because I wasn't thinking of a VT claim as a role claim per se (it's just what everyone is assumed to be) it didn't even register as a controversial thing when I posted it. I just wanted to say "hey, now that I think about it I'm ok with being lynched if it helps the town informationally"
In that statement, if you believe it, is kind of an inherent VT claim, because why would a power role townie be ok with being lynched? So the making it explicit was a mistake, but, like, if you imagine that post without the role claim, it basically reads the same to me.
Does that answer your question?
Either way - bad decision dinosaur. My town strategy was pretty much to see what would happen if I didn't self-censor at all, on the theory that the mafia would self-censor a lot so doing the opposite would make me look townish. I think the moral of the story is no, that doesn't work.
I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position. You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it. We could go back and forth, but what's the point? You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting. You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you. There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with. And you're not even under pressure yet.
this teaches me not to skim over very long posts; I missed this bit of ridiculousness. Mafia mistake or arrogant + bad town play to say "and make Robz vote for you"? Probably arrogant town
"so I'm not actually reconsidering my position"
Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.
Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?Post 359 is literally the first time Axxle says something is scummy or townish. Worthy of note is that his early posts described joth's mafia claim as anti-town, not as a scumtell. He doesn't perceive the VT claim in the same way, apparently, and that suggests he made an opportunistic decision to dislike the VT claim.
"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up. Really. Pinky promise.
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"
@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way. Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast. That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.
Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun. What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.
Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea. It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.
Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.
I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).
It's all well and fine if you wish to IGNORE the case, but saying it isn't there is flat out wrong. There have also been a few others who have voiced concerns our suspicions, but not voted. This is, in my opinion, the strongest "bandwagon" that's rolled, because it's the only one that HASN'T seemed to have people jumping to get on just for the sake of a lynch. At this point, if Axxle were to flip Mafia, it would be extremely telling. If he were to flip town, there would still be good information to be gained.
-Short story, the Axxle wagon seems like several people that may not agree with each other on specifics finding the same person suspicious. They aren't a unified front excepting that they all think Axxle is likely enough to be mafia to merit a vote.
Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?Post 359 is literally the first time Axxle says something is scummy or townish. Worthy of note is that his early posts described joth's mafia claim as anti-town, not as a scumtell. He doesn't perceive the VT claim in the same way, apparently, and that suggests he made an opportunistic decision to dislike the VT claim.
"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up. Really. Pinky promise.
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"
@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way. Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast. That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.
Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun. What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.
Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea. It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.
Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.
So this is post 359. Note he asks, "does anyone else interpret this post this way?" Even though this is analysis (weak analysis) he loses points overall for trying to gauge the viability theorel's lynch without voting him or putting his opinion out more firmly. This is fifth grade stuff.
359 is the first time he does anything but theory.
i'll look at other stuff too to show you guys
My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:
When the game first began, I was asking questions of most the people online - Theory questions, sure, but still making them take a stance on issues - Axxle, above and beyond refusing to take part, actively discouraged my form of investigation and scumhunting as useless and a waste of time. In particular, the question I had been asking was along the lines of "What are your feelings on game length? With 3 weeks, we have "as much time as we want" to allow for investigation, or do you feel a quick lynch is good for the town if it presents itself?"
When Jo got up to 6 votes (and went no further), Axxle suddenly jumped in with his thoughts "Hey, lets get this over with. No need to drag things on" - Now hey, I don't disagree with this. As a matter of fact, I actively believe this is the best form of play. What I disagree with is his TIMING. He actively refused to take a stance early, and then threw that out there when it could have the most potential impact. Almost everybody else, I can refer back to how they feel, and hold them accountable to their actions now. But Axxle's LACK of accountability, more, his REFUSAL to allow for accountability, struck me as very very scummy.
Add in to that the fact that he was vote #5 on Pops, and vote #4 on Jotheonah (both times with relatively little reasoning), and it was enough for me to make my case and cast my vote. Others have come out with their own reasons, some I think are valid, some not quite so much. But his play, to me, has not been consistent with honesty that town has no reason NOT to have.
My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:
When the game first began, I was asking questions of most the people online - Theory questions, sure, but still making them take a stance on issues - Axxle, above and beyond refusing to take part, actively discouraged my form of investigation and scumhunting as useless and a waste of time. In particular, the question I had been asking was along the lines of "What are your feelings on game length? With 3 weeks, we have "as much time as we want" to allow for investigation, or do you feel a quick lynch is good for the town if it presents itself?"
When Jo got up to 6 votes (and went no further), Axxle suddenly jumped in with his thoughts "Hey, lets get this over with. No need to drag things on" - Now hey, I don't disagree with this. As a matter of fact, I actively believe this is the best form of play. What I disagree with is his TIMING. He actively refused to take a stance early, and then threw that out there when it could have the most potential impact. Almost everybody else, I can refer back to how they feel, and hold them accountable to their actions now. But Axxle's LACK of accountability, more, his REFUSAL to allow for accountability, struck me as very very scummy.
Add in to that the fact that he was vote #5 on Pops, and vote #4 on Jotheonah (both times with relatively little reasoning), and it was enough for me to make my case and cast my vote. Others have come out with their own reasons, some I think are valid, some not quite so much. But his play, to me, has not been consistent with honesty that town has no reason NOT to have.
Here he discusses SFS. He totally fails to guess what mainly gave me a townread on SFS, not even quoting his post about joking. There's a reason I didn't always explain myself - to see who had a townie mind capable of thinking alike, and who didn't. I think this whole process was faked - he already knows SFS is town.Insomniac - Your timing is impeccable. Not lurking, just getting caught up. Played golf this morning and this is the first time I've been able to read since confirming my role last night. 6 new pages, wow. Someone expressed concern that this would be longer than MIII, I suspect it will be very long indeed with 15 of us.fluff
Voltgloss - Thanks for moderating this, with all you have going on.QuoteAxxle - Thanks for the link to the two articles. I found the second article to be particularly important.slight townread (for me)QuoteCouple of housekeeping things before I begin the substantive part of my post:fluff
1) I am a newbie, having never played this game at all in any format.
2) I have created a temporary signature to define my abbreviations for people's names. If your name is not abbreviated in my signature, I will do my best to use it in its entirety. I did this because someone in an earlier post used the salutation "@G", and there are 4 names in this game that start with "G".
3) I'm not going to read MI or MII (with the exception of checking the two starting posts, to verify the absence of the players in my first question below), and I will likely abandon my reading of MIII, which is currently in Night 1.
4) My gender is male, if it helps anyone avoid awkward choices of pronoun.
5) I am on EDT in the US, if that is useful info for anyone in evaluating posting patterns. (God, I'm such a data whore).QuoteNow, on to substance:That isn't substance...
@Theo, Gloob, Green: You were not in MI or MII or MIII. Have you played Forum Mafia before? Have you played IRL?QuoteAfter reading the second article that Axxle suggested, I am of the opinion that random voting on Day 1 is anti-town. Day 1 is indeed a time for to be as non random as possible. So, I'll be bold:Not original, and he complains later about O not addressing it. We all know O's random, O most of all.
VOTE: O, because he will be voting randomly.
Pre-post addendum: OMG, while I'm wrestling with this, another full page? I started this literally one minute after #211.
I really don't see how you can get a town read off this guy. I'm not getting a strong mafia read off him but pops, can you explain a bit. Or is it all just gut.
I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.
I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.
Galz and I have already given you a decent concise post each. Pops has given you some quotes - that you just as easily could have followed - Axxle's post history is a few clicks away. Axxle is my top suspect because i do not consider J's "poor" town play to be mafia, or if it is, something I don't expect to last very long into Day 2. He has given us some very clear and specific things to ding him on, and that strikes me as even play as that is even worse Mafia than it is as Town.
I am not enjoying seeing you and G on opposite sides of an argument.
I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.
Galz and I have already given you a decent concise post each. Pops has given you some quotes - that you just as easily could have followed - Axxle's post history is a few clicks away. Axxle is my top suspect because i do not consider J's "poor" town play to be mafia, or if it is, something I don't expect to last very long into Day 2. He has given us some very clear and specific things to ding him on, and that strikes me as even play as that is even worse Mafia than it is as Town.
I am not enjoying seeing you and G on opposite sides of an argument.
I am seeing the arguments being posted now. Perhaps I missed them the first time around. Anyway, I thought for a minute that the lack of response to my request for answers was possibly indicative of a mafia-led bandwagon against Axxle. I see now that there's more to the reasons that I previously thought.
But look, Axxle was a member of the Mafia in M1. I say he played pretty boldly, and changed his vote a few times in Round 1 (between TINAS, unvote, and theory). Ultimately, this was his undoing, as he should have just kept for lynching TINAS. If he were mafia in this game, would be play similarly?
It may be my fault. The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.
I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.
Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.
No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.
No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.
I don't do long posts on iPhone. Haven't been home for 2 days will try to make a big one tonight in the next 3 hours summarizing my thoughts though I don't have much.
No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.
I thought we all agreed with Captain Frisk, and that scum were supposed to stay in the middle of post count/length? [/sarcasm].
I remain unconvinced by the strawman arguments against Axxle. Popsofctown is still my vote.
Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia
I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear. i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town. There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters). If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.
I think Galz and my difference in philosophy in how the game should start made him very critical of my posts. If I flip town I don't want him to be an automatic lynch, you should evaluate all the players on their own merit.
I strongly agree with this statement by Theorel, and was actually going to bring it up myself if I got closer to being lynched:I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear. i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town. There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters). If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.
Hey O while you're here y u no wanna be frayends?
Does that mean we're frayends now?
Does that mean we're frayends now?
we're frenemies
Post moar guise
1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down.
By the way, Glooble, I have NOT voted Axxle 4 times.
I did in posts: #166, #258, and #760.
The first vote was a feeler vote. The second because I reconsidered his responses to the first (post #201 that you site was actually the UNVOTE inbetween). The last one was only after he posted his comment on "theory" to push a stalling lynch along. A stance on said "theory" he refused to give early on (and was the cause for my original vote).
If you're going to setup redirectional arguments at me, please get them right.
By the way, Glooble, I have NOT voted Axxle 4 times.
I did in posts: #166, #258, and #760.
The first vote was a feeler vote. The second because I reconsidered his responses to the first (post #201 that you site was actually the UNVOTE inbetween). The last one was only after he posted his comment on "theory" to push a stalling lynch along. A stance on said "theory" he refused to give early on (and was the cause for my original vote).
If you're going to setup redirectional arguments at me, please get them right.
I say we break Galzria again! It's such a fun activity.
J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.
ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?Me or everyone?
J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.
ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?Me or everyone?
I don't mind it, but if Theorel is scum, it's more likely he's covering for his mafiapals instead of planning on voting for me.
Ok, if you said anyone other than me I'd have been surprised. I wanted to make sure that you are actually following your philosophy. What specifically have the others done that is counter to what they say?J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.
Well, you for starters. It's the core to my vote and argument against you. I feel that your use of "theory" (If we should continue D1 when we could lynch for the "sole purpose" of continuing discussion) post went against your words early on of such information being irrelevant.
I have no problem with your belief in and of itself, and had you stated it way back at post #100, I would never have voted for you the first time. But timing is everything, and your usage of that platform came at a time when it *could have* (and was obviously meant to) had an impact.
After you, it's a tossup. Dsell has some interesting things going on (outside of misinterpretations by others). So does Theorel. J certainly raises flags still. But right now you're top of my list.
I'd say as soon as he said it, it would completely invalidate the thought for anyone who votes for me afterwards including him, since mafia now have the idea.ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?Me or everyone?
I don't mind it, but if Theorel is scum, it's more likely he's covering for his mafiapals instead of planning on voting for me.
maybe. It'd be an interesting gambit though
ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?
What specifically have the others done that is counter to what they say?Off the top of your head of course, I don't need or want you to dig up quotes.
I really need to set the time to look through Theorel's posts again and see if he's misrepresenting anyone else. That bothered me too.ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?
Other than covering himself for (maybe) voting for Axxle in the future, is there anything Theorel's done to make you think he's mafia instead of town? I was getting a strong town read on him for a while, and while he has been annoying more recently I still suspect he's town. He's definitely said a few things that have struck me wrong but that could be because he has badly misrepresented me. But I definitely don't think he's nearly as suspicious as jotheonah.
@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.
But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.
@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.
But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.
I presented a case, why don't you either refute it or agree with it.
Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.
@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.
But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.
I presented a case, why don't you either refute it or agree with it.
Seemed rather non-existant to me.
He 1) Misrepresented Robz and 2) covered himself in his vote for Axxle
Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.
Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.
I'm comfortable enough with my own reads right now.
(I mean really, yes it's POSSIBLE and even not together too unlikely that any bandwagon is devoid of mafia, but to CLAIM one is such before a flip even occurs..)
I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear. i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town. There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters). If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.
(I mean really, yes it's POSSIBLE and even not together too unlikely that any bandwagon is devoid of mafia, but to CLAIM one is such before a flip even occurs..)
This is indeed odd but he's made a couple weird unsubstantiated claims so I think this could be just a potential analysis of the situation. I thought it was a really silly claim too, though. You can say that about literally every bandwagon.
Here is the specific quote I'm talking about:I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear. i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town. There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters). If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.
Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.
I'm comfortable enough with my own reads right now.
Without making any illegal references... don't get cocky I really don't want to have to campaign for a Galzria lynch
Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines. I'm told fluff is bad.
Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines. I'm told fluff is bad.
Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines. I'm told fluff is bad.
I don't think you understand what the standard definition of "fluff" is if you think shorter posts are fluffier than longer posts.
Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines. I'm told fluff is bad.
I don't think you understand what the standard definition of "fluff" is if you think shorter posts are fluffier than longer posts.
Perhaps, but I wasnt wowed by:
at 12:30 - "Post moar guise
1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down."
Or, at 12:17: "we're frenemies"
Or, well to go on would be ... fluff in your eyes.
I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O. Have fun everyone.
I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O. Have fun everyone.
Damn right you are! 8)
@SFS: That is a very nice conspiracy theory regarding me and CF. I enjoyed reading it.
@Galz: It feels like you want all discussion to be about me and J. Is that correct? Are you willing to discuss the possibility of other players being mafia?
I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O. Have fun everyone.
Damn right you are! 8)
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats)
weeeeee are the champiooonnssss
SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables, and Grujah searched the deceased Lord's Throne Room, hoping for the key, or clues, or both.
When that didn't work, they did it again.
Vote Count 1-13
popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown
Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
@Grujah, you got anything to add?
On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?
(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)
I no longer have my vote on pops and am trying to start another bandwagon at the moment ;)
@Grujah, you got anything to add?
On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?
(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)
Just looking over some people that have behaved strangely before and now. This is Grujah's last post, and he was most recently logged in twenty minutes ago. He's lurking, which smacks of scum.
Just trying to get some discussion going since it seems like J and Axxle discussions are stalling. If we can get me and J talking more maybe we can get more evidence, and if talk about other people maybe we can help find partners for Day 2.@Grujah, you got anything to add?
On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?
(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)
Just looking over some people that have behaved strangely before and now. This is Grujah's last post, and he was most recently logged in twenty minutes ago. He's lurking, which smacks of scum.
Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).
Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).
Some of us cast our votes EXACTLY once. ;)
Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments. Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.
Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?
Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments. Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.
Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?
Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.
Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments. Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.
Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?
Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.
Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments. Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.
Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?
Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.
No offense intended J - but you aren't exactly super credible in this game - every time I see you argue for harder for Axxle - I doubt myself.
Yes, because remember, Robz doesnt vote lightly!Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).
Some of us cast our votes EXACTLY once. ;)
One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.
Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.
Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.
Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.
Also, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1? I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break. But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.
sed -n '/Post by: <strong>Galzria<\/strong>/, /<\/dd>/p' print.html >> ~Galzria.html
I would like to be more certain of Axxle before casting my vote. That's actually a big part of why I wanted to hear from you and Green.
Okay, Glooble and Grujah's votes are pretty scummy, yes? Does this give anyone pause?
I'm pretty sure he's going to flip town, but maybe not. We'll see. I'm certainly ready to put Day 1 behind us.
I'm pretty sure he's going to flip town, but maybe not. We'll see. I'm certainly ready to put Day 1 behind us.
Who else are you suspicious of? I know you're feeling strongly about J, and you're unlikely to change that vote because you and I see voting differently.
I can't imagine the rest of us are all equal in your eyes.
"if I flip town"I like keeping myself objective at times.
Right now I'm feeling 60 - to 70 percent sure he's mafia. Obviously, that's what I'm hoping is true. Even if he comes up town, though, I feel like that will give us a lot good information. Tables' early "I trust Axxle" post, his feud with Galz, his votes on the pops and j bandwagons, etc. If Axxle comes up town, Galz, pops, theorel, and myself will all need to be examined in a new light. I see this making for a much more productive day 2.
J has been acting so suspicious that if we lynch him we learn nothing. Everyone who voted for him has reasons that are hard to argue with.
Is there something wrong with my reasons?
For the record (and clarity),I'm not suspicious because of the timing of their votes. That would be ridiculous. If people never cast votes #6 or #7 or #8, nobody will ever get lynched. This discussion occurred earlier. I put little value in the placement of votes based solely on the same. So what makes them suspicious is the listed reasonings along WITH the vote placement.
OMG HE CLAIMED VT HE"S THE WORST TOWNIE EVER POLICY LYNCH POLICY LYNCH
@AxxleYes. I was wondering why the apparent double standard.
The quoted post of mine was not directed at or about you. It was a response to Robz on my thoughts about Glooble/Grujah and their votes on you.
@AxxleYes. I was wondering why the apparent double standard.
The quoted post of mine was not directed at or about you. It was a response to Robz on my thoughts about Glooble/Grujah and their votes on you.
Okay, at CF's prompting--and because the day could end at any minute--here is a list of everybody, from most suspicious to least, with a bit of commentary. None of these are like, sure things. The long day has certainly given us good info and evidence, but with so many people they run together a bit, so... these are sort of based more on my gut feelings, which I know were informed by evidence at some point, though I can't exactly recall what that evidence was in every case.
jotheonah -- Still the most suspicious to me, for reasons I've gone over. The fact that he cooled off so dramatically and actually did manage to spare himself from lynching really does lend credence to the idea of him being mafia. I'm worried we are going to forget about Jo a bit, because there are going to be a lot of suspects next round. So, let's try not to forget about him.
Grujah -- Well, he was suspicious for voting without explanation for somebody early on. Pops, maybe? It put him on my radar, and other people noticed too. He downplayed his abilities a lot, which I don't like. And uh, I don't know--every time he speaks (which became rarer as the day went on) he is suspicious. And his vote for Axxle here was suspicious. I don't usually jump at the people voting 6, 7, 8... but this game they are definitely noticeable to me.
Glooble -- He had a post earlier today that I found really suspicious (falling into my "mafia middelground" category). I don't think I mentioned it then. Flew way under the radar at first, but now... yeah. I could definitely see him as a mafia if Axxle flips town (same thing for Grujah).
theorel -- He has said some weird, not entirely accurate things. He got weirder as the day went on. I think he was definitely wrong in the argument he was making, and Dsell was right. The only issue there, though, is that I remember thinking in MII, "I am right and Insomniac is wrong in this argument, anyone can see that, but... I'm the mafia, and Insomniac is right, though not for the reasons he is making." So, being wrong doesn't make you mafia. Still, I expect theorel might be the ultimate Axxle vote. If Axxle is innocent...
Axxle -- There are definitely good reasons to suspect Axxle. It's weird that he has barely defended himself. Did he give up? I don't know what's going on with him. Anyway, with so many people in the game... the mafia definitely don't have to vote for each other. If Axxle flips mafia, I think everyone who voted for him should be pretty much acquitted (mostly). Or at least, like, the first couple people. If he flips town, which I think is more likely... well, we will have lots of suspect tomorrow!
SwitchedFromStarcraft -- Has annoyed me to no end. I don't get this guy. He really did pick a fight with me for no reason. Doesn't make him mafia, though. In fact, it actually makes him among the least suspicious of the group of new players.
Dsell -- Uh, I see a lot of myself in Dsell, which is why I can't help but suspect him slightly. He makes some good arguments, he seems to agree with me in this game, but... well, I was a mafia once. I could see it. I don't any evidence but I could see it.
Captain_Frisk -- He is sort of in the same category as Dsell, but maybe slightly less so.
popsofctown -- Too weird to be mafia. Seriously.
Tables -- Helpful, if infrequent poster. Mostly feels like a town member. That might change next round. I've never seen him in action on Day 2.
O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.
Galzria -- Ditto, basically. I worry that I'll never really suspect Galzria. Somebody else is going to have to explain to me why he is mafia, if anybody reaches that conclusion. I'll never reach it without help.
Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.
*Green Opal -- I admit the Opal from this list entirely, because I have absolutely no read on him, and no memory of anything he has done or said. Nothing.
(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).
Grujah - I'm a little behind, but I have voted for both J and Axxle. When I catch up, I'll tell you what position I fell in, but I think it was vote #4 on both.One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.
Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.
Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.
Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.
I am trying to figure out how much sense this has. I mean, it does to extent (mainly the part where they it benefits them if they do not join any and still a townie dies). But it would seem to me that landing a hammer blow generates more heat, so joining a wagon earlier (any wagon) seems like a better idea. Even better if they spread their votes on both. Not saying that it is not possible, but that it isn't that much likely that they are riding BW.
I'll try to comment on everyone, even though I don't have strongly based opinion on most people.
1 - Galzria - seem to be actively scumhunting, interrogating and such. Town read.
2 - Dsell - Though he did post, I completely have no idea or what to form opinion on, not really feeling anything here, so slight scum.
3 - Insomniac - Not sure about this guy. Neutral, maybe slight scum. It might be the evil looking avatar.
4 - Robz888 - Ok, I for most considered Robz townie, as he seemed to be actively trying to scumhunt. What threw me off a lot is him going on how his vote is precious and he is slow on the trigger, and than he votes J quite easily.
5 - Captain_Frisk - He plays great, hunts/attacks/stuff like that, but there is just something, I don't know, gut feeling says slight scum read.
6 - O - He's been voting on his own, that kinda gives me slight town read.
7 - Axxle - Seems more scummy than J. What I particular didn't like was him backing off J than voting against him back (and general, seemingly erratic play).
8 - theorel -QuoteAlso, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1? I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break. But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.
Ok, I get people want night to come and to see day 2, but this is the similar thing to that Axxle posted ("let's lynch quick and finish off") but said in a more politically correct way as, "I think we should lynch and finish it off.. but if you guys need more time.. suuuure". Though this doesn't mean much. Still not sure on him, maybe little scummy?
9 - Glooble - Slight scum read.
10 - popsofctown - His SFS "he's good" thing aside, his posts 660, 669 give off a town read.
11 - Tables - Hmm.. We've agreed on some stuff (like Glooble-Theo-J backing up). Axxle's his most town read? hmm. Neutral, maybe slight town read.
12 - Grujah - Hi.
13 - jotheonah - Ok, this was some seriously bad play. I don't find it necessarily scummy, but I would cry over too much if he died, unlike glooble I don't think we learn nothing from his death, as him and theo have been protecting J and that gives us something depending on the flip.
14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - slight town read.
15 - Green Opal - I agree with general consensus of not having a opinion.
I guess that's generally it.
Does someone know which people have been on BOTH of J and Axxle wagons?
(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).
(1) I like them, except a lot of times people write them and end up acquitting everybody on the list. I don't like that. But I don't think mine is vague and forgettable.
(2) Will do.
As per request and in the order given by the sign up thread
1 - Galzria - Talks a lot, accuses a lot, if Galzria is mafia I commend the switch up. Probably town, trying something different then previous Galz iterations, want to find scum
2 - Dsell - For a guy who posts a lot I don't actually have a good read. I'll brush up on his posts and see if I come back thinking hes scum or not, my suspicion is that he could be and hes higher ranking than some others
3 - Insomniac - Insert completely unbiased review here.
4 - Robz888 - Much like Galzria if Robz is mafia I'd be highly shocked it would be a completely different game then something that worked so well last time. I don't think he is but I won't rule him or Galz out yet
5 - Captain_Frisk - I like Captain_Frisk as a player he prods people without being too crazy gets people to defend themselves and creates bandwagons. Definetly could be mafia or town. Top 5
6 - O - Well O plays every game of mafia the same way, in the one game we can talk about he was town, if he's mafia then it would be straight up hard to read and could definetly be the case. 50/50
7 - Axxle - I don't think he's mafia, seems wrong for mafia to contribute an article on scumhunting. Doesn't make him safe but I don't buy into the recent bandwagon around him
8 - theorel - Makes big posts that explain his outlook well, he's having a feud with Robz, based on Mafia II, I would suspect one of these two to be mafia and since I don't think its Robz Im inclinded to blame theorel but it's day 1.
9 - Glooble - You know I've seen his posts but they tend to be a big blob of text in one paragraph with no line breaks. I hate text with no line breaks, I tend to skim over his posts, I'll go back and review
10 - popsofctown - Like O I can see pops being mafia or town. Hes an aggitator, he actively tries to piss people off, it draws attention to himself but in the same way as O it cools down quickish, If he is mafia I'd be ok with my lynch here if he is well I guess one aggitator at a time
11 - Tables - Gettin a strictly town read here, thats worrysome but his posts are similar to M2 where he was super helpful. I'd be inclined to reconsider after I see how the events this round go
12 - Grujah - Another one I dont have a good read on I haven't seen that much from him either. I'll go back and re-read seems like he's another of the less active players
13 - jotheonah - Well he could be mafia but his gambit would be all too risky, letting him live day 1 isn't a big deal, he claimed vanilla townie which isn't great but not terrible either. He also claimed scum. I'm pretty sure its just bad town play but again I will definitely reevaluate on day 2.
14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - Another one that had a spat with Robz, could be mafia I'm unsure. pops claims he's not which makes me suspect him more as well and probably puts him near the top of my watch list. Again though no solid read yet.
15 - Green Opal - Posts infrequently. enough to be another lurker.
Most of my good evaluations come after a lynch when I go back and re-read day 1 and come to conclusions much like I drew the Robz conclusion on day 2 in M2. As you'll note I didn't partake much day 1 in Mafia 2 either, had a real life reason but also I just don't have much of a read on people until theres hard evidence to draw from. If that makes my suspicious thats fine but I guarantee open on day 2 I'll have some real quantatative posts. Not Galzria tome style but like Insomniac day 2 crusade style.
Cue pops revoting for me with an insulting post. In 5....4...3...2...
Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.
@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.
I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.
Hey, Axxle, if there's a townAxxle in there, please give a bucket post with the names of your top two scumspects. I don't have a clear clue of what that is from your posts (which is one of the reasons I'm hanging you, sorry).You'll take what I've given you and you'll like it!
Jotheonah: you are not one I see myself voting for unless something drastic changes. If I had to rank you you'd be near the top but there's at least 3 other people I'm more suspicious of.Robz888 - seems to be behaving as he did in Mafia I, although a bit more level headed. Solid town.
Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.
I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.
The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.
Grujah - Doesn't adequately explain himself much of the time. Slight scum but it looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.
well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.
Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.
...LOL. Yes, I have a very strong relationship with CF, as I made clear in #1009 (p41). It's the same sort of relationship I have with you, as evidenced by my vote on you. Do you even read my posts?
No? Ok, I'll do it quickly because I need to rush to work:
Captain_Frisk - I don't like his relationship with SFS, don't remember much else.
a) If I'm on target with post 1009 (and your post makes me believe more strongly that I am - that you and CF are mafia), this is a thinly veiled message to a potential third mafia to keep an eye on what I'm posting, as I might inflict further damage.
Opal come hammer this sucka.
Opal come hammer this sucka.
I know you're playing this game nice and terse, and trying hard to fight O for the most unhelpful player, but any reasons why Opal should come hammer him?
I don't really think Axxle is mafia and even I want to hammer him, just to move on.I'm pretty sure you have the power to do so.
I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.
The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.
Also, what do we do night? Any good target for any potential abilities?
I don't really think Axxle is mafia and even I want to hammer him, just to move on.I'm pretty sure you have the power to do so.
Of course you would like this observation. It brings Jo back into the picture, which may help Axxle out of a bind.@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.
I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.
+1 for this observation.
well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.
Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.
Do you anyone you are not suspicious of?
I agree with Robz that a Cop should investigate the suspicious. I strongly disagree with his list. I think the Cop should use their own reads, and not be influenced. Mafia will mislead with names, Town won't know for sure, so could suggest bad ideas.
Protectors, Robz is spot on. Protect the town people you find most helpful. Again, decide for yourself based on the lynch flip.
Vig, hold off unless you're confident. I'm not sure though. Not familiar enough with the role and it's intricacies.
As a final note, generally when given the choice between being able to kill someone or being able to do almost anything else, players will choose to kill someone. Balance your games accordingly
And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."+1 for that... and off to spotify. I wonder what % of people will get the reference.
...
I want to let this slide, but a post with my name in it 6 times is just too much fun to ignore.
The theory you are putting forth is:
1. Axxle and I are both mafia
2. At some point we agreed that we would do some misdirection on Day 1 and accuse Axxle
3. Instead of jumping on a pops or J bandwagon, I instead assist with the creation of a bandwagon on my mafia teammate. Note, while I was the 3rd vote, I almost discount J's vote because I don't view anything he does while being pressured by town to be credible.
4. We get up everyone riled up to 7 votes, and I continue to sit here, waiting for the hammer to fall
I really have a hard time seeing how this is good mafia play.
The slowness of this wagon, and the fact that no-one is hedge jumping off it makes me feel better about being on it. If he flips town, I fully expect Galzria and I will be the focus of suspicion tomorrow for arguing for his lynch.
And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."+1 for that... and off to spotify. I wonder what % of people will get the reference.
Are you going to spotify the Group W bench, or spotify the envelope that I put at the bottom of that pile of garbage?And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."+1 for that... and off to spotify. I wonder what % of people will get the reference.
Raise your hand if you're buying SFS's case right now.
I ALWAYS have a radio on on Thanksgiving, particularly at noon.Are you going to spotify the Group W bench, or spotify the envelope that I put at the bottom of that pile of garbage?And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."+1 for that... and off to spotify. I wonder what % of people will get the reference.
O - Trying to generate discussion, but not succeeding. O is currently my strongest town read.
O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.
@O: there are people who say you are useless though.
This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site. I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.Test successful. I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.
Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site. I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.Test successful. I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.
Was just needling SFS who is apparently seeing triples.Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site. I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.Test successful. I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.
Double triples. :)Was just needling SFS who is apparently seeing triples.Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site. I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.Test successful. I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.
Oh right. Jokes. I like those.
Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!
Fabulous idea, cause you know that I'm still trying to lie low. Besides, Ima fun guy, for an old fart. I like juggling, origami, oh wait, I thought I was posting in Mafia III. ???Oh right. Jokes. I like those.
It is pretty boring over here. We're @ 7. No-one on the bandwagon has shown any interest in getting off. RobZ won't be moving on. Galz and Axxle are offline. We're about to go into the weekend, where posting patterns are going to shift (I'm going to go silent, people who can't post at work might be more talkative). Why not have some fun with SFS?
Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!
At some point a few minutes ago - it said you were offline - which I noted as completely out of character.
Glooble - many of the things he says feel like he's just rehashing what others have said. Scum read here.
Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!
At some point a few minutes ago - it said you were offline - which I noted as completely out of character.
It was SFS's fault for mentioning server crashes.
Again, to correct the record: I used a very generic phraseology "problems with the site".
I would never anger the god of the pre-gloat by mentioning the words that Galzria did. I also don't quote from the Scottish play, or mention the number that falls between 6 and 8 once the come-out roll is made.
What, do you think I'm new? (Robz, this one doesn't count).
Damn, I started typing INSIDE the quote tags. Oh well, you guys will figure it out, I'm not retyping just for humor.
EVERYONE NOTE: Galzria's words in the above quote end at "for mentioning s..... cr...es."
VOLTGLOSS: IF I CAN TRUST THE PROFILE INFO, GREEN OPAL HAS NOT POSTED FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS. CAN YOU PING HIM PLEASE?
Apologies regarding activity. Exam tomorrow, been feeling generally lazy all day and haven't had access to a laptop. Haven't read beyond the end of page 38 yet except skimming this page. Axxle is at -1? That's... interesting. Interesting enough that I actually want to read what's happened and chime in.
Tables is the only one that's really read to me as being significantly suspicious of both. Though I think all have said they'd be willing to lynch jo if they thought getting scum was unlikely.
hey pops, were you being flippant before or do you actually think Insomniac is scummy?
Hi all. Sorry for the extended delay, and what's about to follow:
So I probably haven't mentioned on here that I'm a final year PhD student, but that's what I am. And it's become evident to me this week that my rapidly increasing writing schedule doesn't give me nearly as much time for random gaming as I'm used to, so I think I actually need to drop out from this game due to time constraints (at least the amount of time it'd take for me to be satisfied that I was getting and providing enough to the game)
So, hopefully I'll be back around at some point when there isn't a thesis looming. Sorry again :( And enjoy the rest of the game! I'll probably end up skimming it in a few months or so to see how my suspicions lined up...
Hi all. Sorry for the extended delay, and what's about to follow:
So I probably haven't mentioned on here that I'm a final year PhD student, but that's what I am. And it's become evident to me this week that my rapidly increasing writing schedule doesn't give me nearly as much time for random gaming as I'm used to, so I think I actually need to drop out from this game due to time constraints (at least the amount of time it'd take for me to be satisfied that I was getting and providing enough to the game)
So, hopefully I'll be back around at some point when there isn't a thesis looming. Sorry again :( And enjoy the rest of the game! I'll probably end up skimming it in a few months or so to see how my suspicions lined up...
Voltgloss: Are you going to replace GO?
Sent one to Robz, right?
Insomniac was scummy but not on the same level as AxxleI am the Dougz had to lift the level cap for my scumminess.
I know you're playing this game nice and terse, and trying hard to fight O for the most unhelpful player, but any reasons why Opal should come hammer him?
Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult
Well this is going to make thread searching confusing.Quite.
Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult
Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult
I think its: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Innocent_Child
Has the ability to have the Mod confirm role, but presumably something you don't really want to do.
uh. As much as I'd love for you to be alive I think we lynched you yesterday Axxle.
So it would appear we have a witch, or an overzealous woodcutter/ militia.
Well, my reads on Axxle and Insomniac were both way off. I'm gonna have to do some digging to figure out who the heck IS scum. And I may not be able to get to it until tomorrow night. RL stuff.I assume you mean Axxle1?
This is going to be so confusing with Axxle... I'm actually really glad Green Opal didn't say much because otherwise I think my head would explode keeping them straight.I think more people suspected Insomniac more than Theorel. I'll go back and check.
Pops, your first paragraph you say you don't think a witch has motive to kill Insomniac and in your second you think theorel was a scum kill, so are you thinking we have a woodcutter/militia who killed Insomniac? So maybe no witch involved? Should this person step up to claim it or is that a bad idea?
Axxle, what do you mean about too town and too scum? I got a town read from both of them for the most part, but I thought Theorel was a little scummier, misrepresenting people and throwing the hammer on...er...you.
@O: What're your thoughts and feelings? You didn't like the lynch of Axxle1, and were on Pops most of the game. Have your reads changed?
Apparently nobody does.
Dsell and Theorel were at eachother a bunch, WIFOM, blah blah.
Glooble has an awesome name. It's hard to suspect someone named Glooble. On the other hand he sure has mostly lurked.
Tables has been far less active than I would have expected him to be.
Apparently nobody does.
Dsell and Theorel were at eachother a bunch, WIFOM, blah blah.
Glooble has an awesome name. It's hard to suspect someone named Glooble. On the other hand he sure has mostly lurked.
Tables has been far less active than I would have expected him to be.
Me and Theorel weren't at each other, he was after me. I maintained that I thought he was town but he misrepresented me a couple times which was concerning. YOU however wanted to start a bandwagon on him.
Because everyone seems to think I'm forgettable (not sure what I'm supposed to do about this...), let me go over basically where I was at yesterday.
Suspicious of:
Jotheonah, strongly. Still suspicious. He was on the Axxle wagon.
Grujah, somewhat. For pretty much the reasons listed everywhere. Really odd behavior and hasn't really accounted for it. Not sure there is enough to build a case on it. Yet.
Pops, at least early. He managed to do some marginally helpful things later in the day but his style of play (shutting other ideas down) bothered me and he has not been very helpful for probably the most experienced player among us.
SFS, also early. He was posting a whole lot of nothing for a while. He finally got around to saying some things, including a conspiracy theory surrounding Axxle1. So a bit of an oddball but I admit that he's probably town.
Not suspicious of:
Axxle1. I felt like his lynch was a bad idea, I really didn't see the merits of the case against him. Not the best townie though, hoping Axxle2 can be more clear about things.
Voted against me:
Captain_Frisk, but he later dropped it. He said I was too middle-of-the-road I guess because I didn't have any really strong convictions at that point.
Theorel, so that sucks cause now I look bad. I explained this above. This guy was frustrating though. He made a case against me but then threw the hammer on Axxle.
I really don't know how to analyze the night kills. I still say that from my perspective, Theorel was scummier than Insomniac. But it's hard to say who offed who when we don't even know if the extra kill was done by a witch or a town vig-type role.
And you didn't mention me or glooble or tables in your suspicions list, or Axxle2/green opal
Pops, your first paragraph you say you don't think a witch has motive to kill Insomniac and in your second you think theorel was a scum kill, so are you thinking we have a woodcutter/militia who killed Insomniac? So maybe no witch involved? Should this person step up to claim it or is that a bad idea?
On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?I think if we can figure out if we have a witch or a woodcutter/militia it would be great, but I don't think we have enough info on that. Pops brought up a good point that witch would want to kill mafia, at least to start so that doesn't seem possible. I don't think it matters if we determine who's a mafia or wwm kill.
On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?I think if we can figure out if we have a witch or a woodcutter/militia it would be great, but I don't think we have enough info on that. Pops brought up a good point that witch would want to kill mafia, at least to start so that doesn't seem possible. I don't think it matters if we determine who's a mafia or wwm kill.
I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT. Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).
So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? ::) ;D
Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.
This is a strange game. And by that, I don't mean this iteration of it, I mean the game itself. (Yeah, that's fluff).
Well, clearly I was wrong about Axxle, and therefore likely about CF. I never got any substantial quiet time this weekend to run though the posts of my next party of interest (not Jo) to examine closely. More on that in a later post if I can work it up.
My only other major thought over the weekend was: What is up with Tables? He has posted very little, and in the last 10 (roughly) posts he always refers to why he won't be around much. He also is on very few peoples lists, so if its a ploy, its working. Taking the advice in Grujah's post at #1113, and figuring my eccentricities meant I was short-lived in this game, I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT. Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).
I don't know how much I'll be able to read or post for the next 12 hours or so. I'll get caught up when I can.
Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.
Yes, if a Witch chooses investigation immunity, they are reported as "Town" to Spy/Adventurer investigations. Same for Mafia Chancellors (Godfathers). See the sample role PMs in the intro post.
@Glooble: Why was Axxle1 scummy?
Vote Count 1-16
popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O
Not Voting {1} - Tables
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch
Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.
On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?
Galzria (1) - 760
Joth (2) - 848
Captain Frisk (3) - 875
SFS (4) - 883
pops (5) - 895
Glooble (6) - 1042
Grujah (7) - 1050
Theorel (8) - 1162
Of those, Glooble and Grujah's votes seem the weakest, and came after quite a long break. Glooble's reasoning gave no reasons for his suspicion of Axxle, just that he was suspicious and that we would get information from the lynch.
Okay, so the interesting thing is, most of the people who didn't vote for Axxle are dead.
For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
An anyone but me voter - quoting a mislynch waiting to happen - as evidence of his townedness. Color me unconvinced.
Should we just lynch Axxle2, so that maybe we can get an Axxle 3 instead?
Oh, and SFS - I feel like that info helps the mafia more than it helps us. It tells you that either 1. you're lying about the one shot and you're the cop or 2. you have no power role anymore and shouldn't be bothered with. How likely does everyone think it is that we have both a one-shot cop and a regular cop?
I've only "led" one charge, as far as I can recall...I will go back and verify my statement. One moment, please hold.
And how do we know this?For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
Theo is dead and town.And how do we know this?For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
And how do we know this?For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
Oh yeah. Sorry, I'm still focused on being wrong about Axxle.And how do we know this?For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.
One of whom is confirmed town.
Theo is dead and town.
I guess I also need to have it explained why me saying that Tables is town would put a target on him tonite. Mafia already knew he was town, or that he was mafia, so nothing has changed there. I don't see why it would increase the chances that an SK would kill him.
@joth: I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.
O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town? You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame. You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively. This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.
I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight. I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable. Jailkeep,60/40
I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.@joth: I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.
O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town? You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame. You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively. This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.
I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight. I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable. Jailkeep,60/40
*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.
You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.
I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.@joth: I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.
O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town? You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame. You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively. This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.
I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight. I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable. Jailkeep,60/40
*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.
You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being. Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle. You didn't. You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference? Did you know they were both town? Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.
SFS is such a cute poster. Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS? Did you think about it? Sigh.
And all three of those are town.
Here's the thing Dsell and Robz. Is there anything I could actually do at this point to convince you guys I'm town?
I went a little crazy Day 1; I can't really explain it but a lot of us have moved on from that to looking for real scumz.
I mean the problem is that I AM town, so from where I'm sitting the case against me is just this horrible distraction from scumhunting, you know?
Like, Night 1 I was super-ok with being the lynch if that was helpful, but at this point a mislynch is a much worse thing for town so I'm really not ok with it.
I don't have a strong scum read on anyone. But I suspect the voters on me, Robz and Dsell a little more, because I feel like a lot of smart players - too many for all of them to be mafia - have seen past my weird play and concluded that, though weird and possibly anti-town, my play is not, and has not been scummy. But Dsell and Robz seem really fixated on me, really unable to make that leap to say "He's playing crazy, but not scummy." And that bothers me a lot. AND YET if mafia, I would really expect the two of you to be stepping up your game, trying to beat a drum against me.
The weird thing about today (in-game) is that there are really no drums, no bandwagons, no evidence of a mafia train at all, despite that there are obviously many scum about. I really don't know what to do about it.
How many town are we at anyway? Did the double kill put us at an even number? How close to LyLo? Is No Lynch a thing?
The problem I have with your assessment of Jotheonah is this Glooble:
He played a MUCH stronger town game in M-II. Robz and I both had to learn our lesson about playing fast and loose as town after our Mafia win, but J's actions just don't follow. If he were town, why would he change up a strategy that stood strongly once already? I would expect a change in composure if he DID have something to hide, not the other way 'round.
until we needed him to be.
Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?
Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?
Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?
It does take a fine balance to not get yourself lynched...
until we needed him to be.
Exactly..
until we needed him to be.
Exactly..
That's irrelevant to my point though that a town J plays VERY differently than the J here has. I'm not condemning him, but I don't understand why he would make the change to crazy, when he saw exactly how well it worked for others first hand.
Blerg. It's frustrating and ironic that the weight around my neck THIS GAME is how supposedly good I was LAST GAME even though last game my team LOST HORRIBLY.
Blerg. It's frustrating and ironic that the weight around my neck THIS GAME is how supposedly good I was LAST GAME even though last game my team LOST HORRIBLY.
Galzria just wants to think MII town was at all good because then it stands to follow that he as mafia had to be even more pro ;D
After reading through Galz's posts a lot I have a better feeling about him. He definitely seemed to be scumhunting various people constantly.
No, I wasn't BAD, but I have no clue why people there believed me. I got WAY more lucky than I was good. I just said things, and people went "oh, ok".
Hell, Axxle1 died for the same reason! I should just not talk when I play town. I have a tenancy to get people killed, and I'm not entirely sure why. :(
Ok, metamafia arguments aside there is a BIG DANGEROUS FALLACY attached to my wagon.
It is the fallacy of weird=scummy. It is a fallacy that loses mafia games.
So Robz, Dsell, and Galzria, ye who are so focused on my "weird," "bad," and "not like Mafia II" play, please be so kind as to explain why that play equates in any way to good mafia play.
Ok, metamafia arguments aside there is a BIG DANGEROUS FALLACY attached to my wagon.
It is the fallacy of weird=scummy. It is a fallacy that loses mafia games.
So Robz, Dsell, and Galzria, ye who are so focused on my "weird," "bad," and "not like Mafia II" play, please be so kind as to explain why that play equates in any way to good mafia play.
Good Mafia play is play that does not get you lynched. Were you lynched?
Sigh back. I did think about it. If I were to just say "I investigated", then I'm either cop, or the one-shot cop. If I don't specify, there is a bigger target on my head as cop than a guy who's already used up his special power. IF there is a doctor, and he thinks I'm the cop, then he has to protect me every night (at least that's what I'd do, if I was the doc). This way he knows he doesn't have to waste that protection.I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.@joth: I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.
O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town? You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame. You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively. This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.
I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight. I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable. Jailkeep,60/40
*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.
You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being. Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle. You didn't. You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference? Did you know they were both town? Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.
SFS is such a cute poster. Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS? Did you think about it? Sigh.
WEAK argument. I was not lynched. But, as I've said before, it was really through no fault of my own. Short of actually self-voting, I did just about everything I could TO get lynched. So arguing based on the oUTCOME of my actions rather than my actions themselves? You can do better.
The weird thing about today (in-game) is that there are really no drums, no bandwagons, no evidence of a mafia train at all, despite that there are obviously many scum about. I really don't know what to do about it.
How many town are we at anyway? Did the double kill put us at an even number? How close to LyLo? Is No Lynch a thing?
The problem with the "why didn't they kill X" argument, is that it can be made strongly against anybody alive, with good reasons to back up the question. But as Town, I really can't give a satisfactory answer, because I don't know.
The only people who could answer that question about themselves with any certainty are the Mafia themselves.
The problem with the "why didn't they kill X" argument, is that it can be made strongly against anybody alive, with good reasons to back up the question. But as Town, I really can't give a satisfactory answer, because I don't know.
The only people who could answer that question about themselves with any certainty are the Mafia themselves.
Dammit Galz. Don't say that until after the mafia have responded.
Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.
Vote: Robz888
Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.
Vote: Robz888
Robz, as usual, you and I agree on a lot. I don't like being acquitted so easily and in such an off-hand manner any more than you do. It's just uncanny and unsettling. I just don't know how to change it.
I voted for Axxle1. I more or less drove the wagon. It's rather disconcerting (and perhaps disheartening) that our community would just set me aside, assured in my innocence. They should be considering EVERYBODY, and not writing anybody off.
Also, axxle1 got lynched and axxle2 is trying to learn from that mistake.
I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760. I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.
Are you trying to antagonize RobZ again? (emphasis mine in quote).
That said I am also Axxle suspicious. In the interest of seeing where this goes:
Unvote
Vote: Axxle
He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754. I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing. I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory. Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.
Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.
Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town. If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly? If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?
Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.
This vote is serious.
Vote: Axxle
His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.
Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.
Vote: Robz888
Terrific.
A couple thoughts. First, uh, why does everyone trust Galzria? Seriously, like 3 people just said, "Oh Galzria, that friendly ol' mislynchin' sonofagun. What a townie."
I continue to concur with much of Galzria's analysis while emphatically disagreeing with his ultimate vote. He's not my top suspect, but let's please stop acquitting him automatically. (Note: I have to do that too! I acquit him far too often. This is a do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do thing).
Now I'm saying, again, that Jo is still the most likely mafia. He's right the weird play=mafia, at least in theory. In execution, he looks to me like he was making an effort to be weird, and oh look, weird people aren't ever the mafia. One of these days, a mafia member is going to act totally crazy and expect to always be acquitted because he's just being crazy. I mean, it kind of works for O already.
Gloobe and Grujah continue to give me bad vibes whenever they speak. So these are the three people I am focused on.
On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
So let's say Galz is Mafia. He leads a bandwagon on a townie who, prior to his initial post, did not have any more suspicion on him than anyone else. He is immediately joined by the guy who everyone thinks is mafia. This does not seem like the kind of strong scum play I've come to expect from scumGalz. On the other hand, it worked. Six more people voted for Axxle, at least some of them were town.
Galz is an advanced player, it's possible he figured stay in the middle of the pack, don't do anything to arouse suspicion, help out an existing bandwagon when one comes up was such an obvious mafia strategy that the best way to avoid suspicion was to come out boldly, guns blazing for someone and apologize when that someone came up town. It's also possible that he didn't think anyone would join him on the Axxle bandwagon and just wanted his vote to be somewhere innocuous when jo flipped town. So you're right, we shouldn't exonerate Galz. There are plenty of scenarios in which he could still be scum.
jo: voting for Robz for continuing to attack you looks scummy. Care to make a case against him that doesn't rely on the knowledge that you are innocent, since you are the only one who possesses that knowledge?
I have now seen (confirmed) town Robz and (confirmed) scum Robz play. Guess which one digs in to a target and doesn't let go, regardless of evidence and shifts in public opinion?
I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?
This still looks like inexplicably poor town play and risky but potentially extremely profitable scum play. Especially given the possibility that there are multiples of any given role.
Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?
I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?
Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.
Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.
Vote: Jotheonah
Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?
I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?
Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.
Is that your D2 strategy? Attack anybody who suspects you? You haven't made one valid argument today, and appear to be actively trying to (unsuccessfuly) play like O or Pops today.
It isn't all that "wierd" to point out that people should not acquit me so easily. If they do for me, they will for others, and that allows opportunities for Mafia to hide.
Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.
Vote: Jotheonah
If people want to join me, great. If not, well that's ok too. I can't see anybody reading more scummy to me as the day wears on however.
Vote: Galzria
Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.
Vote: Jotheonah
So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.
Vote: Glooble.
I think the unvote is implied. Unless I can vote for both Robz and Galz at the same time.
Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.
Vote: Jotheonah
So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.
Vote: Glooble.
What has been erratic about my Day 2 play? Day one everyone was accusing me of rehashing other people's arguments and not contributing any of my own. So I came into day 2 resolved to be more helpful, in coming up with things other people might have missed or glossed over. Tell me why this makes me scummy?
Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.
Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.
Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.
Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.
Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.
I feel the same way about you. But I'm feeling better and better about this 1v1.
It's not a waste if you cause the doc protect to collide with the mafia kill, something that only has a 1/8 chance or somesuch of happening in a vacuum.Sigh back. I did think about it. If I were to just say "I investigated", then I'm either cop, or the one-shot cop. If I don't specify, there is a bigger target on my head as cop than a guy who's already used up his special power. IF there is a doctor, and he thinks I'm the cop, then he has to protect me every night (at least that's what I'd do, if I was the doc). This way he knows he doesn't have to waste that protection.I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.@joth: I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.
O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town? You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame. You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively. This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.
I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight. I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable. Jailkeep,60/40
*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.
You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being. Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle. You didn't. You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference? Did you know they were both town? Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.
SFS is such a cute poster. Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS? Did you think about it? Sigh.
I already explained why SFS is obvtown. The claim today makes him more stupidly obvtown. If he is scum, I'll vote randomly the entirely randomly next game because that's how off rhythm I must be if that's the case.
Captain_Frisk seems to me the most suspicious member of the Axxle1 wagon for now. I found Dsell's case compelling and he's been rather IIoA today, making posts saying, "oh, the mafia don't need to take risks today" and other narration I don't remember. And his vote on Glooble is quite strange, in a bad way. He makes no effort to bring others to also lynch Glooble, and I can't follow his reasoning for doing so.
I already explained why SFS is obvtown. The claim today makes him more stupidly obvtown. If he is scum, I'll vote randomly the entirely randomly next game because that's how off rhythm I must be if that's the case.
Captain_Frisk seems to me the most suspicious member of the Axxle1 wagon for now. I found Dsell's case compelling and he's been rather IIoA today, making posts saying, "oh, the mafia don't need to take risks today" and other narration I don't remember. And his vote on Glooble is quite strange, in a bad way. He makes no effort to bring others to also lynch Glooble, and I can't follow his reasoning for doing so.
If we all agree that SFS is town, then why is my argument against Glooble trying to ring the SFS is mafia gong not acceptable?
Vote Captain Frisk
He's also one of my weaker townreads. PoE.
On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again....and other quotes make me really really wary. I just don't think you're a bad player! We all have to work with limited time frames, it doesn't mean we have nothing good to say. Look at Tables, you've posted ten times as much as him, and he still managed to have some good analysis day 1. You asked me a couple days ago (maybe yesterday?) what you could do to convince me and others that you're town. NOT THIS.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.
pairings without flips are dumb.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.pairings without flips are dumb.
I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.pairings without flips are dumb.
I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.pairings without flips are dumb.
I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.
I took it for grasping at straws.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.pairings without flips are dumb.
I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.
I took it for grasping at straws.
As in - Galzria was under so much pressure from J's relentless - super convincing - assault that he started concocting mafia triplets to throw us on the case?
Please reread my post history, along with people I've suspected before asking questions that need no answers.Every question needs an answer. Not everyone can reread everything all the time. So it was sarcasm?
Vote Captain Frisk
He's also one of my weaker townreads. PoE.
On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
Ok, I've officially deliberated this for too long. I'm gonna go with my gut here.
VOTE: AXXLE
Right now I'm feeling 60 - to 70 percent sure he's mafia. Obviously, that's what I'm hoping is true. Even if he comes up town, though, I feel like that will give us a lot good information. Tables' early "I trust Axxle" post, his feud with Galz, his votes on the pops and j bandwagons, etc. If Axxle comes up town, Galz, pops, theorel, and myself will all need to be examined in a new light. I see this making for a much more productive day 2.
J has been acting so suspicious that if we lynch him we learn nothing. Everyone who voted for him has reasons that are hard to argue with.
Still, and I hate to sound like a broken record, I don't believe j is mafia. I don't think he would play scum in such a light-hearted, cavalier way. It doesn't match up with anything I know about him. It matches up pretty well with him telling the truth about transparency and not watching his words because he has nothing to hide.
@Insomniac: I'm trying to use more line breaks. How's this?
Galzria, how do you suppose it happened that you misread Axxle so badly Day 1? You seemed quite sure he was scum.
That seems ... an odd statement. Rather like "I don't think my math was bad, I just think I got the wrong answer"
[Theorel] 1) Misrepresented Robz and 2) covered himself in his vote for Axxle
Alright, I reviewed Axxle's posts. I'm no more confident than before, but no less suspicious. Axxle played straight-faced right to the end of MI...and he was obviously mafia with no way out. I don't really expect anything different from him this time. I think this is a town-wagon, regardless of Axxle's role which makes me feel way better about the vote than I would otherwise. The discussion in here has already pretty much died. It feels like people are just waiting for Axxle to drop. I'm really glad Axxle weighed in before his death, I'm glad Tables and Grujah both said something. I guess this is where I pull the trigger...feels weird.
Vote: Axxle
Good night everybody. Hope to see you in the morning.
That seems ... an odd statement. Rather like "I don't think my math was bad, I just think I got the wrong answer"
At least I had a reason. You seen well and fine to forget your "anybody but me!" vote.
ugh C_F is seeming really reasonable bah, unvote (didn't read his last post till now)
I'm actually more curious about O's lack of mentioning this than suspicion on Theorel himself. What do you think about Theorel at the moment O?
...
Erm... I think he's a dead townie.
Vote: Axxle2
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
I meant from Day 1 to Day 2. Glooble has clearly made an effort to get more content into his posts. Tables has gotten more active too. Robz has gone much more silent.
Hey guys. Sorry I've been so quiet. Sort of had a rough IRL day (nothing serious, just a bummer of a day).
I went back through the Day 2 conversation and I have pretty much made up my mind. I'll post an explanation and my vote in just a bit.
Vote Count 1-16
popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O
Not Voting {1} - Tables
So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.
Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)
Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.
So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.
If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.
For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.
If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.
On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
As for Glooble, I'm softening a bit. I just went back and read his post history - with the mindset that he was 100% mafia... and all I read is bad reads. (Assuming that theorel is scum kill, accusing SFS of being mafia).
As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.
My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.
First, a look at the Day 1 votes.Vote Count 1-16
popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O
Not Voting {1} - Tables
I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)
The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?
....snip....
100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
Make up your mind!
Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.
RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.
I don't like either of these. I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out. Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair. I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.
Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill. Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.
Finally:And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?
....snip....
100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer. Would we want to lynch him as town? Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night? Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.
Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.
I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer. This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.
I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer. This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.
There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).
I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer. This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.
There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).
I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.
If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.
Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):
If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia
By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
What's wrong with J?
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
What's wrong with J?
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
What's wrong with J?
Didn't you hear? He thinks I'm not mafia, I'm just scum. Whatever the heck that means.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.
I just realized WIFOM is actually depicted on iso
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(I hit 30 again? Yay!
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(I hit 30 again? Yay!
Vote: Galz
Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said. But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town. Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post. I find that thinking disingenuous.
1) You say Glooble defends Jo because Jo is a fellow mafia, but defends Galzria out of desire for an ally. This seems inconsistent and I don't really see why/how you came to two very different conclusions for the same action. It seems like a passive, Scummy defense of Galzria more than anything else.
2) You said it's possible Glooble is just the worst-town of all time. No, in all likelihoood SFS would be if both were town.
3) You called SFS "100% confirmed town". He is like 90% confirmed town. Obviously it would be inanely stupid to lynch him right now but it's a big overreach to say for certainty that he's town.
Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.
4) The rest of your case seems to lie upon the fact that Glooble has said to not look inside the Axxle voters. This annoys me too, after all, I *am* a non-axxle voter. I think I said Theorel hedged his vote when he did the exact same thing. But from the perspective of a townie who voted for Axxle, it makes a bit more sense: He was a town that got lured into it, it follows that others will?
That being said, I agree that his play would have been pretty damn terrible if he is town. Just not as bad as SFS's.
The following will look at Robz's opening paragraphs from the perspective that Robz is a Serial Killer:As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.
My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.
Ok, first off in his opening paragraph he once more uses the "I was right about Axxle1" to try to garner trust. This is especially important moving forward.
What's worth noting (to me), is that while he WAS right about Axxle1, he wasn't the only person who was - and he didn't exactly agree D1 on with those other people about who WAS a better choice. This is relevant because I don't understand why Robz should suddenly be seen as "the voice of Mr. Right", and I don't think using that argument should add any weight to future cases.
Still, as a Serial
Let's start at the top with his bold assertion that Insomniac was the Mafia kill, and Theorel the Vigilante kill.
He doesn't just offer it as opinion, he states it as near fact:
"it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill."
Building off his "credibility" in the first two paragraphs, he doesn't want us to question his assertions here, so doesn't give us the option to.
I had a hard time swallowing that; not the idea itself, but how SURE Robz was, and how badly he wants everyone to believe it (him).
See, the thing is, convincing people that there is a Vigilante on the loose is a great cover for a Serial Killer. They both (to a degree) want the same thing: To kill at night, ideally Mafia. This is especially true is Town is being lynched during the day.
Every time there is a 2nd NK, Robz can refer back to this post. If the NK hits Mafia, he can cheer the "unknown Vigilante" for a good read. If the NK hits Town, he can lament the "unknown Vilgilante's" reckless play.
And that's just it. His post neither proves nor disproves the existence of either SK or Vigilante, but is designed to sheppard us along into following his beliefs so that he can hide behind the actions of an "unknown Vigilante".
Moving onto his next paragraph:The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.
Now let's look at his assertions for N1 kills.
Insomniac, as Robz points out, had a track record of reading Mafia tells D2. This is true. Robz's conclusion from that is misleading however. He would like to draw the line between "Someone good at reading Mafia" and "Good Mafia night target". He uses myself and Jotheonah to leverage his point, noting that we are likely to have cause to remember Insomniacs successful Mafia hunting. What Robz omits, is himself.
This was a very tactful decision by Robz, because the scum reads Insomniac got were against HIM, not anybody else. If any of us had a mind to kill Insomniac on the basis of Meta-Gaming then, it would make the most sense to be Robz. The line of connection wasn't that Insomniac could read Mafia, it was that Insomniac could read Robz.
So all that's left is Theorel. Why would the Mafia chose to kill him? Was it because he was on to them? Was it to cast suspicion on the people he suspected? WIFOM.
I don't know why. That's not to say there aren't good reasons: there are. I just don't know which applies best. Multiple people now have suggested multiple reasons, and rehashing then won't get me anywhere.
What I believe, however, is that Robz is the Serial Killer. I believe his case for Glooble is a strong one, and argued from a position of wanting to kill Mafia. I don't know that he's RIGHT, but I'm inclined to believe his case is genuine.
I said in my first response that something about his post felt like an M-II argument, and I feel decent about my read. 100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.
And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?
The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.
There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed. Are you claiming to be Batman?
And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?
The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.
There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed. Are you claiming to be Batman?
No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.
There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed. Are you claiming to be Batman?
I do not know for SURE why Theorel was killed. I am not claiming to be Batman, or to know definitively who Batman is. I have deduced from the conversation yesterday which person is a likely Vigilante, and it makes sense why they would target Theorel.
Um, also, obviously I wouldn't want to say if I was. Nor should the person I suspect of being Vigilante say that they are.
And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?
The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.
It is impossible to argue on this one. We've only been awake for a few days, so I'm holding off on severe bandwagoning, but I don't understand how anyone can not suspect him. The fact that Galz isn't more worked up about it makes me very nervous about him.
That said I would have expectected that if Galz was the mafia ringleader, that J would have received a PM at some point @ night that said something like: "Dude, stop running your mouth. Tell everyone you're on vacation this week, or swamped with work, and don't post anything."
Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.
Everyone stop it.
This thread is now about Counting House.
This thread is now about Counting House.
This thread is now about Counting House.Counting House is actually one of my highest Effect With cards, and I only buy it slightly less often than the average player.
the chainsaw defense."UPDATE: After further analysis, Tarhalindur has determined that the Chainsaw Defense is only trustworthy once the player defended has been revealed to be group scum (once the player defended is proved to be Mafia, any player that used Chainsaw Defense on the dead scum should be scrutinized). Otherwise, it is a null tell. Mutual Chainsaw Defense may, however, still be an outright scumtell; more research is required here. "
@ Galzria's vote, and Popsofctown's vote
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells)
Includes Selective Scumhunting, which Pops claims Galzria did, and the chainsaw defense (voting in retaliation for anothers vote) which Galzria did, and then Popsofctown did.
...Though Popsofctown's use of the chainsaw defense is justified simply by saying he used Galzria's tells of scumhunting and the chainsaw defense.
In fact, we are identical twins.
In fact, we are identical twins.
Strangest reveal ever.
Pops' defense of SFS instead of trying to crush him for bad play makes me suspicious. Galz... well I've been wrong about him in the past.
Pops' defense of SFS instead of trying to crush him for bad play makes me suspicious. Galz... well I've been wrong about him in the past.
Damn no edit: Should read: "makes me less suspicious of him"
Everyone except Glooble...
This thread got super weird.
I'm voting Galzria right? good.
Vote: Galzria
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
Dat confirmation bias.
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.
As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)
Unvote
I don't like the timing of CF's vote. He calls for a votecount then votes without much explanation. I'm going to reread CF critically before I send my vote to him.
Unvote
I don't like the timing of CF's vote. He calls for a votecount then votes without much explanation. I'm going to reread CF critically before I send my vote to him.
Tone clear, I voted with no explanation
Vote Count 2-7
jotheonah (1): Dsell
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Robz888 (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): popsofctown
Not voting {5}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Robz888, Axxle
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
GAH
Sorry gang. It's been a really tough day at work. Fixing now.
no he shouldn't. he is, though.
Vote Count 2-7 v2
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (2): Tables, Dsell
Robz888 (2): Galzria, jotheonah
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Captain_Frisk
Voltgloss (2): Captain_Frisk, Captain_Frisk
Not voting {5}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Robz888, Axxle
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Really.. defending an obvtown makes him less suspicious? I'm pretty sure *everyone* alive agrees that for all intensive purposes SFS is obvtown.
... Tables has gotten more active too. ...
Ok, reread 30 pages of forum. Not enlightening. Made my head hurt. Feel strongly like either Galz or pops is mafia, but my reads are shit. Anyway, Vote: Galzria.
On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:1) I explained my reasons for picking Tables in post #1239 (p50). If you've not read it, please do so. If you have, don't let me impede your venting.
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
None taken. People who take offense at the stating of material fact (especially mathematical ones) either have something to be defensive about, or are Republicans. I am neither.I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?
I agree that it's a weak roleclaim, but to come out and claim when most people seem to have written you off as a crazy townie seems like calling down unnecessary attention on yourself.
I'm sticking with Hanlon's Razor on my read here. As evidence, I present today's isotropic leaderboard:
SwitchedFromStarcraft
15.610 ± 9.758
983 games played
(No offense intended SFS)
@GalzEmphasis mine
Ok, you want the convincing argument for my radical change in playstyle? Here it is. During MII I was unemployed. I had lots and lots of time to analyze, quote, repost, be rational. Since this game started I've been working 10 to 6. I have time to stop in here at work and post a pithy response or two, but I don't have time for in-depth analysis. And when I get home at the end of the day, I'm just tired.
So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.
See past your tunnel vision for a second, and believe in my towniness. Or don't.
Emphasis mine (3 times)On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
@Glooble & C_F & pops
I ended up thinking at the end of day 1 that SFS probably was indeed just new to mafia and was playing how a new town might play. With his roleclaim today it really confirmed it in my mind. I don't see how that makes any sense for a mafia to do that, especially with his mafia partner/s' approval. I guess he could be a witch but it seems impossible to make any real case about that right now.
Glooble, you obviously see things differently. I think you are assuming that SFS is thinking about the game as much/the same way as you. I don't know how much you've played this game before but we're not all putting the same level of thought and strategy into it. So I just really, really disagree with your point. I mean, it's possible, but this is on the same level as SFS' day 1 conspiracy theories for me. I just dooon't see it being a thing. I think it's ridiculous that this all looks scummy to you when the MOST obvious scenario is that he just wanted to be helpful and use his PR before he died. If he was playing the game the same way as you or some others, I would be suspicious too, but SFS clearly has a different perspective on the game.
OTOH, I'm surprised to see C_F really jump on that analysis as suspicious. We are all trying to offer a new perspective: I did last night, and even SFS got points in my book when he put forth the (admittedly ridiculous) idea of an Axxle-C_F mafia pairing. That's the kind of analysis I think we should be rewarding, not seeing as suspicious. I think we can all tell what might be true and what's farfetched, or we should be able to as a town. I completely disagree with Glooble's point but I did not see it as a deflection of attention.
So today I'm still thinking jo is really suspicious, and C_F to some extent too. But jo, oh jo. How is counterclaiming on Galz an effort at good town play? Have you resigned yourself to erratic play? You are creating this terrible lesser-of-two-evils scenario for the town where you are either a really bad townie who's admitting your flaws with your words but doing nothing to change your anti-town actions OR you are a mafia who's been caught in his game and is scrambling/trying to keep up the ruse.
This...So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again....and other quotes make me really really wary. I just don't think you're a bad player! We all have to work with limited time frames, it doesn't mean we have nothing good to say. Look at Tables, you've posted ten times as much as him, and he still managed to have some good analysis day 1. You asked me a couple days ago (maybe yesterday?) what you could do to convince me and others that you're town. NOT THIS.
Vote: jotheonah
I am open to voting for others, though, and may move my vote around some.
What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.Excellent point. That would, I assume, be world class play.
He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables. Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.
Not like Roullette. It is like he's saying he went all in before the River with pocket Kings and a King because only one card off the River could make a straight possible - and it did.Hey man, no problem. I thought I made it clear that I no longer play, and elsewhere on this forum I've posted the reasons why.
I hate poker. No offense SFS
...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.Emphasis mine.
...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.
That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't. You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me. So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)
VOTE: 0 (aka .)
O, one vote worries you so much you'll risk anti-town play? Don't be me dude.
O, one vote worries you so much you'll risk anti-town play? Don't be me dude.
OK, but SFS is just.... such a terrible, terrible townie. A TOWNIE NONETHELESS, sfs, but a terrible one.
Also if SFS hadn't claimed I would be trying to policy lynch him for bringing politics into mafia, and I'm a radical liberal.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(
I have so little desire to know the political affiliations of my f.ds friends.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(
Are you talking about age, level or mean skill? I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.
I have so little desire to know the political affiliations of my f.ds friends.
I'm very very far on whichever wing you like less.
And I'm about level 25ish on Isotropic. Haven't played Dominion for a while actually. I reckon if I played enough in one day to lower my uncertainty, I could push 30 though (my uncertainty means that my actual average rank is about 4-6 levels higher than the majority around my level).
Also, I've seen nobody yet give a good reason for SFS being obvious town. It's only been a few hours, but I'd like to highlight that I either want to see the reasons, or see more people admit someone is pulling the strings about how 'we' feel.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(
Are you talking about age, level or mean skill? I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.
Aww, I'm starting to think you guys like me. For those supposedly paying attention, I believe I've already posted my specific age here in this thread. I certainly have elsewhere on the forum. Yes I'm over 30 (well over). And I likely wont see 30 as a description of the other two variables as applicable to me.
Ok, I wasn't going to get on today, but I need to respond to Robz's post.Emphasis mine
Remember how I said at the beginning of this whole thing that jo and I have a RL acquaintance? That acquaintance is that we are brothers. In fact, we are identical twins. I have known him literally my entire life. This is why I seem so certain that he is town, I may not know mafia very well, but I sure as hell know how to read jo. That's why he seems so obvious to me.
That being said, if we were both Mafia, I would have to be the worst Mafia ever for defending him. I said it before, and I'll say it again - if I were Mafia, I would have bussed him on page five. This part of your argument makes no sense whatsoever.
The rest of your argument against me also makes very little sense, and you support it by paraphrasing things I say as things I'm not actually saying. For example, "Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died?" - not what I was saying in my post. All I said was IF jo is mafia, than I can't imagine him killing insomniac, since he was clearly laying the groundwork to set him up for a lynch." What I was doing was taking something with two possibilities, and stating something which we could infer if a particular one of those possibilities was true. Because I'm not certain enough about anything to say "This is true because this is true". YOu, apparently, are.
Apparently I look like scum because I'm unsure about things, and I'm offering opinions. I'm "hedging" because I've seen lots of smart, experienced people be wrong about things and its made me pretty cynical. You, on the other hand, seem perfectly willing to take things at face value. "We can be sure, beyond all reasonable doubt, SFS is town?" I've seen the arguments for that one, and I still don't buy them.
But imagine I am scum. I look at SFS and see one of the most trusted townies in the game, and try and lead a bandwagon on him? I'd have to be a complete idiot. Even if I did manage to get him lynched, I would be immediately lynched the next day. Mafia want to lead bandwagons on people who look suspicious, in places where they already have allies.
You said, and I quote, "Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia." I disagree. I think the options are I'm playing a decent, if somewhat timid game as town, or the worst mafia ever.
Someone say something brilliant.
... 'Cause the only people that know FOR SURE that I am town are me, the mafia, and Voltgloss.
Someone say something brilliant.
I'm going to bed.
Also if SFS hadn't claimed I would be trying to policy lynch him for bringing politics into mafia, and I'm a radical liberal.I warned everyone in an early post on Day 1 that I would be using humor. (That post itself drew all sorts of scrutiny.) I did not promise that everyone would find it funny. (Nor did I promise I would be a good player.)
...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.
That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't. You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me. So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)
VOTE: 0 (aka .)
....I stopped after Pops said rolehunting was a terrible idea, but if you really are going to vote for me I'll explicity explain myself, which is nearly certainly not good for town.
CF, I'm just getting caught up after 48 hours of no reading. My goal in this game is to have some idea (by the end of the game) as to how to play. Apparently, I will achieve that by knowing how not to play. Some of tonite's posts were to respond to things I thought needed responding to, and others were to point things out or ask for responses from others. There is an excellent chance that some of those in the former category result from a combination of a) my feeling somewhat bruised and b) my unwillingness to stop being myself even when playing a game.also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(
Are you talking about age, level or mean skill? I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.
Aww, I'm starting to think you guys like me. For those supposedly paying attention, I believe I've already posted my specific age here in this thread. I certainly have elsewhere on the forum. Yes I'm over 30 (well over). And I likely wont see 30 as a description of the other two variables as applicable to me.
There is nothing wrong with being on either side of 30 on all of those metrics, I was just trying to clarify what the hell he was asking, and because I had actually looked you up, I knew about your iso rating. I just commented on the age to get another Alice's Restaraunt reference in, because if the other people reading this aren't listening to that song RIGHT NOW, they are doing it wrong.
That said, it appears that you've been cleared (tables being an exception) Is there any reason for the rapid fire posting responding to messages from many pages back? Many of these really just don't seem like they warrant their own post. What is your goal here?
Is this a tell? In setting up this paragraph, you asked us to imagine you are scum - ok, we await the hypothetical. Blah blah, then the magic words "I would be immediately lynched the next day". That would be true only if I flipped town, but you didn't establish that in the setup of the hypothetical, and I'm not sure it is assumed, especially in light of your feelings - you aren't convinced I'm town. So did you slip up? 'Cause the only people that know FOR SURE that I am town are me, the mafia, and Voltgloss.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.
Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.
Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.
That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.
Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.
That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.
Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.
That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.
...Yea no, we want to lynch both SK and mafia scum. Can't really try and rely on one scum to take out the other.
That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK
Bump.
2 hours and no posting? I know crazy O is flying around, but surely other folks are around. Anyone else want to suspect people? Galz is quiet, which is way out of character, and given that he just died in that brain burner of a game Bastard Mafia I, he shouldn't have any distractions.
For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.
Vote: jotheonah
For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.
Vote: jotheonah
Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?
For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.
Vote: jotheonah
Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?
I'm on Pacific time. I'm leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am so I will probably try to go to bed at 10 pm. I may still see things/be able to post on my ipod as late as 11 pm tonight.
For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.
Vote: jotheonah
Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?
I'm on Pacific time. I'm leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am so I will probably try to go to bed at 10 pm. I may still see things/be able to post on my ipod as late as 11 pm tonight.
And you're off the grid for a full week?
...Tables, are you suspicious of SFS or just concerned that people are seeing him as 100% town?...
DSell (in the post I quoted above) went one step further and said he doesn't think the mafia would suggest it, but I'm really not convinced by that. If I were mafia with a newer player as a buddy, I'd be willing to take a risk with a new player telling them to take such a move. It'd be virtually unquestionable and if it worked, would put the other mafioso in a very strong position. In fact, if that is what's happened, it's very almost worked.
Vote: Galz
I'm not as wary of CF's weird vote anymore. I may rescind it again after Galz's mega post he claims to have.
wtf i have been nothing but kind today why does everyone hate me.what the heck is this a response to?
I make lucid posts sometimes.
I am going whitewater rafting.
What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense. From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.
What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense. From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.
Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.
I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.
What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense. From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.
Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.
I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.
Hey, give me some time. Like I said, I'll post later tonight. I'm getting good and drunk first though. ;) O has already said he would Policy Lynch me for post-blasting him, and though he's (one of) my strongest town reads, I still believe him.
What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense. From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.
Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.
I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.
Hey, give me some time. Like I said, I'll post later tonight. I'm getting good and drunk first though. ;) O has already said he would Policy Lynch me for post-blasting him, and though he's (one of) my strongest town reads, I still believe him.
No post. Lynch all liars!
If galz mega posts, I'm voting for him as a policy lynch.
But if we can't be sure of lynching mafia, and we had a guaranteed SK lynch (we don't by any means), its inanely stupid to wander blindly into town lynch, 2x town kill again. We'd lynch the SK immediately first, since they're guaranteed to not be townie.Bolded text mine.
That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK
I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer. This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.
There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).
I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.
If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.
Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):
If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia
By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
Make up your mind!
Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.
RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.
I don't like either of these. I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out. Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair. I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.
Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill. Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.
Finally:And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?
....snip....
100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer. Would we want to lynch him as town? Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night? Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.
Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
What's wrong with J?
Vote: Galzria
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
You sure talk a whole lot about having all the master tells down.
SK hunting is not inherently bad. If something jumps out, it's worth pointing out. Since I don't have much to go on against a possible Mafia (though that might change), I point out what I do see.
By the way, isn't refereeing a IIOA Mafia tell in your little black book? You do a damn awful lot of that.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
Then pay close attention.
I try
Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell. So.
Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.
This vote is serious.
Vote: Axxle
His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(I hit 30 again? Yay!
Vote: Galz
Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said. But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town. Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post. I find that thinking disingenuous.
The thing that struck me most about Robz' long post is no longer an original criticism, but still confused/bothered me a good bit. I didn't like that he dismissed the idea of a SK in favor of the assumption that it was a Vigilante kill. No one has claimed vig yet, so I think it's much too early to write off the possibility of a SK. Bad assumption, IMO.
Now Galz' reply is actually also very interesting (and also partially based on an assumption, but he admits it so it's cool) and reasoned quite well. He addresses those same issues I did above. It scares me to think that some of our heavyweights might be mafia. Both because they will have a lot of sway with the town and because I don't expect them to make many mistakes.
I really really want Robz to be town. D1, we had a lot of the same ideas. So far D2, well I'm not sure if I think the case against Glooble is quite as strong as he thinks it is but it's not too much of a stretch to envision a mafia partnership between Gloob and jo. Lynching one of them will obviously give us more insight into that idea. But back to my original point, I am more than willing to give Robz some grace here. I'm not convinced that he's either SK or mafia yet, but this idea does give Galzria a little more credibility in my mind. That said, I'm also not convinced by pops that SK hunting is a strong mafia tell. Not amongst newer players anyway.
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.
As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)
Sorry Robz, I've got my reasons, and O (damn unreadable townie) might be onto them.
More to your point, your counter argument was "I just know. I've got a read I can't share, so you'll just have to trust me". I understand and agree completely that you shouldn't share your read if you have one. But I can't just take your word that you do.
It's a catch-22 for you in my eyes right now, and I recognize that (if it makes you feel better). The only way to clear your name would be to possibly incriminate yourself and/or someone else for entirely different reasons.
Wait, so your plan was to make a poor argument and then strongly suspect people who accuse you of making a poor argument? An ass backwards plan if I ever saw one. Did you not think that Robz stirred the pot enough with his post? I think that it's much more likely that you expected some people to go along with it and took so long coming up with this post because you wanted to come up with a convincing backpedal.
I don't read it as a role claim, just an alignment claim. Galz can clarify.
Edit: And he put it in bold, just to emphasise the point he was a generic townie.I don't see how boldface means generic therefore vanilla. In my (RL) lexicon, Townie means local, but some of the towniest people I've ever known held community/professional roles that society typically describes as powerful: doctors, etc.
...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.
That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't. You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me. So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)
VOTE: 0 (aka .)
....I stopped after Pops said rolehunting was a terrible idea, but if you really are going to vote for me I'll explicity explain myself, which is nearly certainly not good for town.
Well, I want to be fair, and not affect the outcome of the game any more than I already have (I guess now I'm glad I voted for the discussion thread, cause I'm probably enormously entertaining there) so:
@All other than O - Can someone give me an example (or a hypothetical) of a situation where a player responding to thoughts such as mine in the quoted post be bad for the town? For extra credit, confirm (or make me doubt) my thinking that offering but deferring a response because it 'would not be good for the town' is just as likely a mafia thing to say as a town thing to say.
more convinced than ever that one of you is mafia. just gotta figure out which one.
more convinced than ever that one of you is mafia. just gotta figure out which one.
You mean Galz and pops?
Should I write up my post on Pops tonight, or wait to give the town time to respond/chime in without feeling pressured/influenced?
There is plenty to dissect without my adding more at this point, and I think Pops actions thusfar have spoken for themselves without my added input. Still, I'll be happy to present tonight if desired.
Should I write up my post on Pops tonight, or wait to give the town time to respond/chime in without feeling pressured/influenced?
There is plenty to dissect without my adding more at this point, and I think Pops actions thusfar have spoken for themselves without my added input. Still, I'll be happy to present tonight if desired.
I want you to post it just so I can read something in this dead dead thread.
That said, I'd prefer (unlikely) to see everyone weigh in before the (seemingly inevitable) epic Galz / Pops showdown.
...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.
I can't buy a bus right now. You see a bus when mafia is losing or when someone already has pressure on them. Neither pops nor Galz was in enough hot water that a winning mafia team would go straight for the bus, with so many better options.
Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.
Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.
Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.
...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.
...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.
Sfs, you felt it was important to respond to this, bu nothing on the matter of pops v. Galzria?
Sorry for the misclick on #1591 that resulted in no post....SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.
Sfs, you felt it was important to respond to this, bu nothing on the matter of pops v. Galzria?
Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.
Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.
No problem. You, Robz, and many others. Enjoy!
I'll post it when I get home this evening.
Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.
Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.
No problem. You, Robz, and many others. Enjoy!
I'll post it when I get home this evening.
More lies. Man how did this forum get so dead?
Galzria's claim over his Robz postI've expressed my thoughts on this already. I want to hear Galzria's true thoughts about Robz's post.
Galzria's accusation of PopsI'm interested to see his analysis. I feel that Pops's reaction to Galzria's claim over Robz's post is justified though.
Robz post back a few days agoYou mean about Glooble? I find it interesting how Galzria's post on Robz completely took discussion away from Glooble. I have had a decently scummy vibe coming from Glooble in general.
Yesterday's bandwagon on Axxle1I think it felt justified.
Is there something we can learn from the silence itself? Or are the mafia being silent because all three of the viable wagons (Myself, Galzria, and pops) are in fact town? So they're content to sit back and see what happens?I had a lot of IRL things happening the last few days, and when I was able to log in there were other games that took slightly more precedent.
Or is everyone just wrapped up in IRL stuff that has nothing to do with the game?
Also, for the record, I'm perpetually signed in on two different computers. Just because my profile says I'm logged in doesn't mean I'm around or paying attention.
Waiting on Galz's post. I want to refine my read on him more than any other progress in the game.
It was scummy, but not damning. I think I might have a different view of him than everyone else because he's claiming to have drawn the conclusion that I'm scum from his gambit, something I know is false.
Actually, Volt, it's been 47 hours since Galz posted. Can we get a prod?
Actually, Volt, it's been 47 hours since Galz posted. Can we get a prod?
Thats at least 43 hours longer than he's ever gone before.
I dislike Joth pushing the Galzorpopsisscum every post
I keep thinking about Galz and why he isn't dead. I come up with 3 different reasons:
1) He's mafia.
2) Mafia think we'll lynch him because he spearheaded the Axxle1 case and was wrong.
3) Mafia think he'll spearhead another case and be wrong.
4) Mafia thought he'd be protected
I think that Galz's reasons for lynching Axxle1 were much too strong to be clearly malicious. And look how much the town has just written him off. Only J is really pushing Galz's case at the moment (and badly). So point 2 is very unlikely.
For the purposes of this thought experiment I'll assume point 1 is false too:
If 3 is correct, then maybe mafia haven't been that closely followed by Galz or they think they know the type of player Galz is going to try to lynch. I think we should focus on lurkers since Galz seems to consider them an afterthought, as much of us do.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
Not sure where that gets me.
Well, that's my conspiracy theory of the evening. Good night.
I'm willing to admit the possibility that jo is so good he's played even me, but right now I'm not finding that to be one of my top scenarios.I was not writing off any of the points. I was just discussing what ifs. I thought I was pretty clear:
I'm waiting to hear Galz's megapost. Even if one of Galz or pops is Mafia, though, there are still probably two more scum out there, maybe even three (if we have a Witch rather than a woodcutter/militia.) So there should definitely be more to discuss.
Now the next candidate after those three seems to be me. I can't really say much to that, except that I know that I'm not scum, and there isn't really enough pressure on me at the moment for me to feel like an impassioned defense of myself is the best use of everyone's time. Instead I'm going to hunt around for a better fourth candidate, because at least then maybe the town will have something to talk about.
Now it occurs to me that many of the arguments for jo being scum are also applicable to another player: O. He's been staying "active" (i.e. not lurking) with posting very many original suspicions or in depth analysis. His posts have been extremely reactive, and full of humor. Early on he was drawing some fire, but then jo started acting even crazier and we all sort of forgot about him. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on.
I was getting a slightly suspicious read from Axxle2, but I couldn't put my finger on it, so I went back and read his day 2 posts. I find I can't really fault him for voting for Galz for acting scummy when Galz was acting scummy, whether as part of a town gambit or not. So I got to this post:I keep thinking about Galz and why he isn't dead. I come up with 3 different reasons:
1) He's mafia.
2) Mafia think we'll lynch him because he spearheaded the Axxle1 case and was wrong.
3) Mafia think he'll spearhead another case and be wrong.
4) Mafia thought he'd be protected
I think that Galz's reasons for lynching Axxle1 were much too strong to be clearly malicious. And look how much the town has just written him off. Only J is really pushing Galz's case at the moment (and badly). So point 2 is very unlikely.
For the purposes of this thought experiment I'll assume point 1 is false too:
If 3 is correct, then maybe mafia haven't been that closely followed by Galz or they think they know the type of player Galz is going to try to lynch. I think we should focus on lurkers since Galz seems to consider them an afterthought, as much of us do.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
Not sure where that gets me.
Well, that's my conspiracy theory of the evening. Good night.
This comes off as a bit scummy to me, when combined with his quick hop on the Galz wagon after Galz's SK post, and the fact that as soon as Robz and others started expressing suspicions about me, he started expressing them to. His logic in this post is fuzzy. I don't know why he writes off option 2 - yes, at that point in the day, the town had weirdly exonerated Galz, but that was weird! Galz himself thought it was weird! How would the mafia have guessed that would happen?
This just kind of looks like the kind of "Analysis" someone would post if they already knew who the scum were and were trying to find something to say. It doesn't get the town anywhere. Plus he starts setting up to exonerate me, then immediately starts saying I look suspicious once it's clear that Robz thinks me likely to be scum.
Hopefully this starts some people talking. I'm waiting to hear back on Galz and pops, but I'm a little suspicious of O, still a little suspicious of jo, and a little more than a little suspicious of Axxle2.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.3 is not correct if Galz is mafia.
Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.I try to contribute and I'm scum. People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.
I'm trying to.Sorry, you are, thanks. There are many other players though.
Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.I try to contribute and I'm scum. People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.
but twins :/
I'm not opposed to my own lynch, per se, at this point. I feel like I've screwed up enough at this point and become enough of a distraction that as town lynches go I'm one of the better ones. I won't shed any tears over myself.
That said, any scum lynch is preferable to any town lynch, so as I yet live I will continue to point my finger in what I consider to be the most likely scum directions.
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDTThat's still the deadline, correct?
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDTThat's still the deadline, correct?
The lack of action in this thread is very, very sad.
If nobody has anything to talk about--no idea which direction to head--well, I do. Really, we should lynch Glooble or Jotheonah. Discuss.
Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.
I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.
@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum.
Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice.
Joth - I think it'd be a step in the wrong direction
Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE
Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE
Would you care to re-iterate the case? I went back and read glooble's (not very frequent posts), and didn't see anything that struck me as out of place, other than a few remarks that seemingly didn't acknowledge the (alleged) RL relationship between him and J.
The gist of the argument against him that I seem to remember was:
- bandwagoned late
- didn't post much in the way of original analysis
Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?
I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)
The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.
Here is what Glooble says about it:So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.
Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)
Gloobe begins defending Jo, who I believe is his mafia co-hort. Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died? It makes little sense. And of course Thoerel is NOT more likely the scum kill, for the reasons I outlined. So it looks to me like Gloobe is either really wrong, or he’s trying to suggest the opposite of the truth, deliberately.
He continues:Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.
Getting Galz on your side is of course a terrific mafia move. And one Jo is incapable of making at this point.So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.
In other words, if we kill Jo, and he flips mafia--and Glooble knows he will--Glooble is suggesting that we don’t look at the Axxle voters for more mafia. Gloobe, coincidentally was an Axxle voter.If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.
But if we DO look at Axxle voters other than Jo, he says we should look at Grujah... The easiest person to pin as mafia, by a mile.For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.
If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.
I don’t like this for the record at all. He’s really trying to have it every which way in this post. Glooble doesn’t think Jo is mafia. But if we kill him and he is mafia, we shouldn’t suspect the other Axxle voters. And if we do suspect the other Axxle voters, we should suspect Grujah. All underlined by faulty logic about which nightkill was the scum kill.
Then, he tries to draw suspicion on SFS--the only living person in this game that we can be sure, beyond any reasonable doubt, is town.On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.
But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.
Look, I understand in theory why SFS’s move could make sense for scum. But that’s not the case. SFS is clearly exactly what he said, didn’t think it out entirely, maybe.... but there’s no reason to disbelieve this claim. Pops is absolutely right that SFS is “obvtown.” Anyone who says otherwise needs to think about it very carefully.
Yes, everything Gloobe said was incorrect, weird accusals, odd defenses of jo, direction away from Axxle voters, etc. Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia. Look, he’s making mistakes either way. But I have a much easier time believing that he’s a mafia member who is doing things that make sense from a mafia perspective (un-subtle and suspicious looking though they are), than he is an incompetent townie.
Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?
... long post snipped ....
... long post snipped ....
And the twins thing doesn't throw you off? It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.
... long post snipped ....
And the twins thing doesn't throw you off? It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.
It did throw me off. Now I think they are probably not BOTH mafia, and that explains why they seemed so in cahoots. But individually they are still the most suspicious people to me. And Glooble, for the given reasons, edges out Jo in me estimation.
That said, I claim to be a villager.
Surely you can muster a better defense than "I claim to be a villager." You meant to say, "I am a villager."
"If I flip town" can be simplified to "if I flip" or "if I'm lynched", when the person speaking is town. Sometimes these little Freudian things turn out well, sometimes they don't. But like the bonus points here.
Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.I try to contribute and I'm scum. People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.
Scum try to contribute. Townies contribute.
Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell. So.
SFS is such a cute poster. Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS? Did you think about it? Sigh.
pairings without flips are dumb.
Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.
Everyone stop it.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
Galzria, the issue with town gambits is that you're lying. You either lied then or are lying now, because you didn't believe in your Robz case. That triggers a broad range of psychological effects that read scummily. So you're left with no one to blame but yourself if you get lynched - you've essentially sent yourself a scum pm instead of a town one and then played the game.
Don't do it again.
Lynch mafia, not scum :/
lynch mafia not scum.
I just don't see Joth being scum. If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too. If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong. Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today. I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.
@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me. I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.
If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).
I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.
No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days. In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that.
Vote: jotheonah
Humor is, actually antitown. It's distracting and it's not analysis. It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.
I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting. Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.
Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.
Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down. Then the player claims a power role or VT.
unvote, vote Insomniac
SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.
unvote, vote Robz
vote: glooble for now.
I very much disagree with his opinion of Tables. Though maybe that means I should vote Tables.
Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.(Bolded last sentence is my own emphasis, to tie into my first point, and because of the pure delicious irony of it)
This vote is serious.
Vote: Axxle
His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.
Vote Captain Frisk
He's also one of my weaker townreads. PoE.
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.
I just don't see Joth being scum. If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too. If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong. Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today. I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.
Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice.
@Frisk: I can't overlook Glooble being very wrong in what he said about Theorel (that he was the mafia kill--he probably wasn't), and about SFS (that he was suspicious, when he is certainly town.)
No, I see all his scumminess, but like... why would he do this, as mafia? Why would he try to be the most irritating, acerbic, incomprehensible, belligerent person? Surely he should have noticed that jerk play gets you lynched immediately, or at least puts you on the radar for being lynched Day 1, in all previous mafia games.
So, why would he do this? I can much better see it as a strategy designed to ferret out mafia depending on how they respond to his weirdness. I don't see how, but that's a better explanation in my view than him being mafia.
O and Pops are extremely different. They both have short posts, but O clearly explains himself. He's not an irritant, at all, not the way Pops is.
Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....
The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?
The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?
Well, consider this: Has your crazy given *everybody* here reason to suspect you (Just nod your head yes here)? If you ARE town, who would KNOW that besides you? Hmm? And if you got lynched for your crazy, and *viola!* came up town, who would look good having predicted it? Hmm...
That said, I'm still not convinced you're town.
Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....
The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?
Well, consider this: Has your crazy given *everybody* here reason to suspect you (Just nod your head yes here)? If you ARE town, who would KNOW that besides you? Hmm? And if you got lynched for your crazy, and *viola!* came up town, who would look good having predicted it? Hmm...
That said, I'm still not convinced you're town.
Honestly, I'm appreciative that your even still considering it. But there's a double standard here, kinda. You say pops is targeting you cause he knows I'm town, you say he's NOT targeting me because he knows I'm town. Either you can't have it both ways, or it's not much of an argument.
nor did you vote for GalzJo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....
hey now, I didn't vote Axxle2, did I? Nor Glooble. I have a few town reads.
Anyway, I think we could use a little more sheeping if we actually want this day to end. And I, who has lost all credibility, may as well be the one to do it.
My gut says that we want to lynch someone else that seems mafia that will give us more information about other players, ie Glooble.
PEdit: I strongly dislike that Jotheonah is mentioning how much he messed up Day 1 and that he's lost all credibility in almost every friggin post. I'm still fine with a policy lynch on him.Anyway, I think we could use a little more sheeping if we actually want this day to end. And I, who has lost all credibility, may as well be the one to do it.Galzria, there is something to the fact that Jo in this game and Jo in MII represent by far the biggest difference in play among any repeat players in our games of mafia. I was terrified of Jo in MII. Volt was a superior arguer, and Insomniac knew I was mafia... but Jo was the only one who could put together a great argument AND was sort of on the right track about me being mafia. He was truly a player to be reckoned with, and a huge asset to the town. In this game, he's insane.
I agree, and I know Dsell and C.F. also feel (at least to a degree) the same way. Dsell left with his vote ON Jo after all. Axxle, do you think that lynching Jo would provide us much information? If he comes up Mafia, well, great. But if he comes up Town, what does it give us to work with?
Robz, as you're also up on my list of town reads with C.F. and O, I put the same question to you. What do we learn by lynching Jo (for Policy, or because his play HAS been so different) if he DOES come back town? A mislynch here isn't the end of the world, but I would really rather avoid it. I can agree that Jo has been... well, he's looked bad this game. And maybe he WAS trying something new. But it stands as SUCH a stark contrast to how he played town in M-II, that believing his claim is a tough pill to swallow. So I probably COULD be talked into lynching him (I've voted him once already earlier in this game day), but I would want to make sure the merits are stronger than the consequences.
#1: Stop right there! That's a foul!:Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell. So.
Wait! Before I continue, I would like to point out that Pops rarely EVER quotes. His posts are VERY hard to read out of the context of the conversation happening around them. This is a blunting tactic used to make it harder to go back and make a strong case against him, because you can't always tell to whom he was referring, or why. So I'll do my best here to provide some context (as best I'm able), so that you don't get lost.
The above quote speaks for itself however. It's something he loves to claim others are doing (he used it as the backbone to his case on Axxle), but indeed is something Pops himself has subtly (at times) tried to do himself. Here's a sampling of Pops telling everybody else how to play. Again, most without context (as he was sure not to provide any):
This is more miscommunication, I thought the timing of my chanting of the saying would have conveyed the meaning, "lynch mafia, not the players in the game you wouldn't want to be stuck in an elevator with", but apparently it didn't, and the saying is not ubiquitous here at all. I agree that if your interpretation of the word scum were correct it'd be absolutely fallacious and silly.
I finish with those two last because it's something that's been said in almost every Mafia thread to date. It's good play, right? I mean, who cares about how scummy somebody plays, as long as we lynch Mafia, not Scum. The problem is, the way Pops uses this is as a defense. He's basically saying "Yes, I'm playing like scum. Scummy scum. Scummiest scum. But it's ok, because as long as you don't lynch me, we'll be good!"
"Lynch Mafia, Not Scum" is not a defense. It's an excuse. It's an excuse to play any way you wish, and not have to justify it. There is VERY little Scummier than that.
Furthermore, when called out on his Referee behavior, and the use of his "little black book" to call foul or get tells on everybody, he came up with this beauty of a hedge:I know what hedging a bet is. The term is not used on mafiascum, though "fencesitting" is used a lot. I can understand the analogy without being totally sure what it means. Much like the failure referee analogy.The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
When it's pointed out that the above quote is absolutely NOTHING but hedge, Pops goes for broke:Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me. I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.
#2: Why won't this vote STICK!?!?:
This is arguably the least important of the 3 points, but if you willfully play to add little value to the game, you deserve to get lynched. This is a behavior thing, and unlike above, is a "I don't like the way they've played" argument more than anything else. He has admitted to being capable of playing better. Saying more. Adding more discussion to the conversation. Every time he's questioned about it though, he just turns the other way. "I didn't want the lurkers to get bogged down, so I've only been posting 1 liners"
Playing sub-optimally never helps the town. Ever. Holding back, or being obscure for no reason, causing suspicion and stirring the pot just to "see what happens" without giving a reason or following up with your radical claims do nothing useful. All it does is make it harder for the town to actually get decent reads. If this is town play, it's not town play I want in my town. If it's Mafia play, well then it's excusable - but still not wanted in my town.
In all, the evidence I believe adds up to Pops being Mafia (no sir, not scum, but Mafia). I'm willing to risk my neck to prove it, but I have no reservations in casting my Vote: Popsofctown at this time.You DO find me to be scum, but hopefully after some thought you'll know I'm not mafia ;)
I agree, and I know Dsell and C.F. also feel (at least to a degree) the same way. Dsell left with his vote ON Jo after all. Axxle, do you think that lynching Jo would provide us much information? If he comes up Mafia, well, great. But if he comes up Town, what does it give us to work with?If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town. I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more.
Damn! Open ended quote! And I can't go back and fix it! Just respond with an @, instead of quoting me.I am skilled with quote-fu (also I preview my posts most of the time to verify)
why would you punch glooble for solid scum play? That's not very nice.
If Glooble is mafia, he doesn't need to do anything to come to innocent J's defense. He knows J is innocent, and could just let him die. I see no reason to defend J with a big "call attention to myself" twinclaim, unless it's a complicated mafia plan to look innocentish, and its unfair because its information that the rest of us don't have. Hence - ballpunch.He was already being questioned for being too buddy-buddy with J, which is a valid reason to twinclaim.
And Throne Room my Fortune Teller so I'd know that theorel was going to get NKed and Opal was getting replaced so posting wouldn't have done much actual harm.
And Throne Room my Fortune Teller so I'd know that theorel was going to get NKed and Opal was getting replaced so posting wouldn't have done much actual harm.
Everyone knows that throned fortune tellers have no more fortune telling capability than a single fortune teller.
UNVOTE:gasp!
UNVOTE:gasp!
UNVOTE:gasp!
Vote: Jotheonah
A major reason is that he's less valuable to the town than Pops or Galz might be. And he's basically resigned to keep playing as he is.
is that the 4th vote?
@mod: Can we get prods for Switched From Starcraft and Grujah and anyone else who haven't posted in 48 hours.
PEdit: @CF: his posts seem lucid when he wants to be. Almost anyone is an asset compared to J at the moment, except for maybe Grujah.
UNVOTE
UNVOTE
Your unvote has exploded the universe, and now there is nobody left alive. The vacuum of space is deafening.
UNVOTE
Your unvote has exploded the universe, and now there is nobody left alive. The vacuum of space is deafening.
Twas the unvote heard round the world.
I was really hoping Galz's case against pops would convince me that one or the other was mafia. It didn't. made me more suspicious of both, and now I don't know what to think. I see a few possibilities:
We lynch Galz or pops
Lynching either of them just seems so high risk/ high reward to me: Pretty good chance of scum, but if not scum then we lose a really useful player. Of the two I am leaning more towards trusting Galz and lynching pops. If pops comes up town I will be reasonably certain Galz is scum. If Galz comes up town, I would be less inclined to immediately lynch pops.
We Lynch me (This could also apply to Grujah, but I'm the one whose had votes on him)
Lynching me would kind of be a wash - I know I'm town, but I'm also willing to concede I haven't been the most helpful town. I don't think my lynch would give the town much information. Few people have interacted with me in any meaningful way. And most of the people who have suspected me are people I have pretty strong town read on (not all, but most.) The thing is, just about anything true of lynching me is more true of option three, which is:
We lynch jotheonah
I still think jo is town, but his erratic behavior is just going to keep giving everyone false reads until we lynch him. I'm afraid the twinclaim just made the confusion even worse. If he is town, the mafia still sure as hell won't nightkill him, and so we'll keep having this same conversation every day, since most of you are not going to suddenly start trusting him. I'm not relishing that scenario.
So that's where I am now. I'm not placing a vote, because I'm not certain enough about any of these options, and I don't believe on supporting a bandwagon just because it's not on me. But I think we should either lynch jo (sorry bro) as kind of a psuedopolicy lynch, and I say pseudo because at least 2 of you genuinely believe he's scum, or take a risk on pops or Galz (I am like 80% sure one or the the other of them is mafia at this point.)
I'm going to a friends house for dinner and will be off the rest of the night. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.
I was really hoping Galz's case against pops would convince me that one or the other was mafia. It didn't. made me more suspicious of both, and now I don't know what to think. I see a few possibilities:
We lynch Galz or pops
Lynching either of them just seems so high risk/ high reward to me: Pretty good chance of scum, but if not scum then we lose a really useful player. Of the two I am leaning more towards trusting Galz and lynching pops. If pops comes up town I will be reasonably certain Galz is scum. If Galz comes up town, I would be less inclined to immediately lynch pops.
We Lynch me (This could also apply to Grujah, but I'm the one whose had votes on him)
Lynching me would kind of be a wash - I know I'm town, but I'm also willing to concede I haven't been the most helpful town. I don't think my lynch would give the town much information. Few people have interacted with me in any meaningful way. And most of the people who have suspected me are people I have pretty strong town read on (not all, but most.) The thing is, just about anything true of lynching me is more true of option three, which is:
We lynch jotheonah
I still think jo is town, but his erratic behavior is just going to keep giving everyone false reads until we lynch him. I'm afraid the twinclaim just made the confusion even worse. If he is town, the mafia still sure as hell won't nightkill him, and so we'll keep having this same conversation every day, since most of you are not going to suddenly start trusting him. I'm not relishing that scenario.
So that's where I am now. I'm not placing a vote, because I'm not certain enough about any of these options, and I don't believe on supporting a bandwagon just because it's not on me. But I think we should either lynch jo (sorry bro) as kind of a psuedopolicy lynch, and I say pseudo because at least 2 of you genuinely believe he's scum, or take a risk on pops or Galz (I am like 80% sure one or the the other of them is mafia at this point.)
I'm going to a friends house for dinner and will be off the rest of the night. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.
Unvote
Not like it had much effect anyways, but Pops, Glooble, and Jo are all way too nuts to justify me continuing to vote for CF
Vote:Glooble
It's between Glooble and Pops, TBH.
do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.
do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.
do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.
Sure.
He is playing the most forwardly irritating game of anyone so far in any game of mafia. His posts are short, incomprehensible, accusatory, sniping. He's being like this deliberately. I can't for the life of me picture a member of the mafia (or SK) planning to behave like this. Why not? Because the irritants have come under fire and been lynched early in every other game of mafia. They draw immediate targets on their back. And Pops is the guy who has played this game before! Morgrim can't help being a nut and getting lynched, I guess. Why would Pops decide to be Morgrim? Decide to be TINAS? It carries a high likelihood of immediate lynch. Indeed, he's been a candidate very day.
I get why self-preservation (i.e. increased lucidity with lynch proximity) looks like a scum tell.
But self-preservation is a basic human instinct. It happens to town also. Even in so far as I've accepted my lynch, as it draws near I subconciously become more careful, etc.
That's actually one of the things that bugs me about pops. When it looks like he's going to be lynched he just plows right on through. There's no panic, no effort to be suddenly more town friendly. And that sort of seems like an experienced mafia player overcompensating so much that he doesn't even have a healthy, townish level of self-preservation.
I get why self-preservation (i.e. increased lucidity with lynch proximity) looks like a scum tell.
But self-preservation is a basic human instinct. It happens to town also. Even in so far as I've accepted my lynch, as it draws near I subconciously become more careful, etc.
That's actually one of the things that bugs me about pops. When it looks like he's going to be lynched he just plows right on through. There's no panic, no effort to be suddenly more town friendly. And that sort of seems like an experienced mafia player overcompensating so much that he doesn't even have a healthy, townish level of self-preservation.
You're right, it does seem like an experienced mafia player. But why would he put himself in that position in the first place? Surely he would no not to behave like this.
You were playing to the scum wincon. You don't even understand how I could get that idea?
You were playing to the scum wincon. You don't even understand how I could get that idea?
As has so often happened this game, I saw the scumminess of my own logic as soon as it was too late to do anything about it. Aw well. This is how we learn. I should explain the logic behind my post better.
This town was dead while we waited for Galz. Like totally dead. If conversation grinds to a halt in the absence of a particular player, I'm inclined to think of removing that player as bad for the town. That's why I was hesitant to cast a pops vote, thereby ratcheting up the pops vs. Galz situation.
Vote Count 2-13
Lynch Deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT[/b]
Pops, I've got to ask, because I honestly disagree strongly, but you've said two things today that don't sit right with me:
#1. You claimed to be the likeliest choice for lynch D2, but never gave an explanation as to why. It sounded very survivalist. "Don't lynch me, I'm too obvious!"
#2. You claimed that I am somehow above being lynched. Again, like above, it reads as a reverse psychology play. In question 1 you say you're likely to be lynched, to prevent it from happening. In question 2 you say I'm unlynchable, in an attempt to rile the town into lynching me.
Both are very odd things to say - so I'm not quite sure what to make of them.
In regards to the second point, I am NOT above being lynched, although doing so without a solid plan to lynch scum after my death would be a mistake. If a townie dies today instead of Mafia, I want them to do so giving us the best chance at Mafia tomorrow. That stands for my own death as well as any others.
Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.
AC?Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.
Grujah's absence is an entirely different can of worms. He is well, well below the AC.
AC?Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.
Grujah's absence is an entirely different can of worms. He is well, well below the AC.
So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say aboutGalzriaJotheonah.
I thought he has been behaving pretty similarly but not exactly this game as in MIII, where he was scum. He's behaving differently enough that I think he's more likely mafia than SK.
meta meta meta
Wait, whys my name crossed out?? What did I do?
So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say aboutGalzriaJotheonah.
I thought he has been behaving pretty similarly but not exactly this game as in MIII, where he was scum. He's behaving differently enough that I think he's more likely mafia than SK.
Wait, whys my name crossed out?? What did I do?
meta meta meta
For real? just 1 posts earlier, you started playing meta justifying your trust of Galz!
I pegged Jo and Volt as scum D1, but didn't know how to play town myself, and got lynched for it.
[snip]
Does that covert it all? Can we move forward now? I really don't like meta-gaming. I'll use out lightly, but never to build a case around one way or another.
Vote Count 2-13
Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch Deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
Vote Count 2-13
Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch Deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
So it looks like we stalled again.
I'm looking at the above and I'm struggling. Galz's pops argument I found convincing - but I look at the rest of the wagon (the scumtwins) and I get nervous. The J wagon has less suspicious characters (pops' scumcusations of Axxle2 not withstanding)
Those on the J bandwagon - If we lynch J - and he turns up town - what have we learned? Where do we go next?
Those on the popswagon - I assume if he flips town we lynch Galz?
If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town. I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more.
Vote Count 2-13
Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch Deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
So it looks like we stalled again.
I'm looking at the above and I'm struggling. Galz's pops argument I found convincing - but I look at the rest of the wagon (the scumtwins) and I get nervous. The J wagon has less suspicious characters (pops' scumcusations of Axxle2 not withstanding)
Those on the J bandwagon - If we lynch J - and he turns up town - what have we learned? Where do we go next?
Those on the popswagon - I assume if he flips town we lynch Galz?
If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town. I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more.
DSell isn't going to answer any prodding
DSell isn't going to answer any prodding
Just to clarify:
- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.
DSell isn't going to answer any prodding
Just to clarify:
- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.
Agreed - I meant prodding from me / Galz regarding what the plan would be if J is lynched, not Mod Prodding. Should have been more clear.
All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across soirksomescummy.
DSell isn't going to answer any prodding
Just to clarify:
- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.
Agreed - I meant prodding from me / Galz regarding what the plan would be if J is lynched, not Mod Prodding. Should have been more clear.
I know it's been noted before, but just looking at Jo's last post:
"I'm good with lynching Galz"
"I want to lynch Pops"
"Someone mentioned a Gruj wagon. I'm good with that"
All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome.
All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across soirksomescummy.
All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across soirksomescummy.
I was actually very conscience NOT to use that word, because one thing Pops DOES have right is confusing "disliked playstyle" and "scum" (in the sense that scum = mafia".
I think Pops is scummy. I think Jo has been... Well, irksome.
Jo COULD be scum. Robz claims that Pops has been to obvious (to be Mafia), but has no issues lynching Jo, who has dug himself deeper holes than anybody else. These two altering statements from somebody I trust has me a bit concerned.
Why would Robz defend Pops?
It's just... Really confusing. I broke away from my gut instinct D1, which said to lynch Jo. Instead I followed a false read into lynching Axxle1. Given my track record on reads in M-II, it's no surprise I would be a little more uncertain now.
Pops is my strongest scum READ. Jo is who my gut says to lynch. So yeah, I'm trying to figure out NOW what would be gained by voting against my reads, should Jo flip town.
Then again, O would probably tell me I'm over thinking it. In M-I and M-III, success came down to the roles getting results. That takes time. Pops conceivably COULD be a PR (he hasn't reached L-1 with imminent hammer yet, which is where he would claim). Jo HAS claimed VT already, so if he's Mafia, he can't fakeclaim at this point...
Gah! Yes, this post rambled. Just stream of conscience.
You were pointing out that J was incredibly survivalist, which is a scum tell.
And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?
I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.
I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?
I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.
EXACTLY
If you are town j, then unvote and make them work for it
I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?
I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.
If you are town j, then unvote and make them work for it
This feels apropos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFl3pWbfVX8
Did I scare everybody away? I'll just slump quietly in the corner now while you guys come to the inevitable conclusion that you really can't not lynch me after that hysterical performance.
Wanting to live in lieu of scumhunting is a scumtell.
I've never said that I think Jo is mafia because he wants to live. We all want to live. I want to live. And if you try to lynch me, I will argue against you. But Jo pretends to give up and not care when he gets close to dying, and it's such a sham. That's the scum part of his survivalism.
Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2
Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2
Sigh.
Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2
Sigh.
Despite it being the 50 millionth person he's voted for, I can't really take issue with this one, since he's made it quite clear (albeit not in THAT post) why his vote is there... And at least with this vote he's not sheeping, but actually voting on his own reads.
... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...
... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...
That was oddly specific. What was high school like for you?
Is that a challenge? ;)... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...
That was oddly specific. What was high school like for you?
Well - my original thought was something political, like listening to a $political_figure speech and agreeing with it, despite the fact that you distruct $political_figure. Then I figured that politics didn't really have a place here, so I decided to modify it to be something that would be really difficult to argue with.... and dudes running around in pointy white hats calling each other wizards are pretty tough to defend...
Is that a challenge? ;)
Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria
I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.
Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria
I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.
There's one very shocking thing in that list. One person is in your second bracket - in your 6 most suspicious people, that AFAIK you've never given any reasons you're suspicious of, and has been cleared by a cop claim you believe to be town. To put me that high, you'd have to think it reasonably likely I'm either the SK or the Godfather. Which means... why aren't you providing any evidence for your suspicion?
And to me, Joth still reads desperate scum, not stupid townie. His unique position makes it hard to compare him to other people, and he's smart, so I kinda feel like his actions are somewhat calculated. It's so hard to tell though. I guess one question is, do we get much from lynching him? If he flips town, what? If he flips scum, what?
I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.
Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.
I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.
Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.
Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.
I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.
Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.
Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.
Dignity is a losing tactic in a mafia game.
But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.
But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.
Whats with the rush? We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?
But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.
Whats with the rush? We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?
Boredom. I forgot about Dsell, and I'll be really glad to have him back. AS for the other two, I am loathe to get two new replacements. They are going to read 70 new pages? And then we have to interpret them pre-replacement and post-replacement? Ugh.
Jo do you have a primal urge to change my mind about you?
perhaps they managed that part on their own?Ouch pops, just ouch.
also am i the only player under 30 on iso :(I hit 30 again? Yay!
Vote: Galz
Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said. But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town. Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post. I find that thinking disingenuous.
That's an odd reason, as there has never been strife between us over something like that, and I would much rather have him with me than against me.
But that's fine.
perhaps they managed that part on their own?
it's the preceding post. It shouldn't be necessary.It shouldn't be necessary now. But 40 pages from now? It's incredibly, and by your defense intentionally, unhelpful.
you ctrl f the post. you don't understand it. you look at the preceding post. it isn't hard.
it's the preceding post. It shouldn't be necessary.It shouldn't be necessary now. But 40 pages from now? It's incredibly, and by your defense intentionally, unhelpful.
Sorry for my absence all, have been traveling. Am getting caught up, and am on page 68. Will post in a few minutes. Until then,
UNVOTE
Nooo!
will post in a jiff. Is that a Jonah lynch? damn.
will post in a jiff. Is that a Jonah lynch? damn.
Nooo!Are you really *that* convinced that J is town? You parked your vote on Galz, what are the reasons again? (I know I voted for him too, but just want an updated read on him)
Except the Robz vote. Pretty sure that dude's town.
I hate that O is voting all the time but always staying clear from main bandwagons.Didn't notice that before, good detective work.
Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.
I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.
I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.
It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.
Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.
I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.
I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.
It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.
I don't suspect Jo, and shouldn't have voted for him out of frustration. His play has been, as I said, irksome. But not scummy.
Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.
I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.
I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.
It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.
It's scummy to agree with you? Odd reason, but ok. Besides, you agreed with me insofar as Jo was concerned. I may have voted for him (which I regret doing), but my reasons were pretty much that while I doubt he's scum, he's driving me up the wall. Wrong reasons to vote for someone, I know, hence my unvote.
It's scummy to agree with you? Odd reason, but ok. Besides, you agreed with me insofar as Jo was concerned. I may have voted for him (which I regret doing), but my reasons were pretty much that while I doubt he's scum, he's driving me up the wall. Wrong reasons to vote for someone, I know, hence my unvote.
I've turned not-troll in M5, not M4 bro.
I don't trust my read on Glooble, basically. I think I'm inclined to trust him more than I ought, because of twinniness.I'll take it with as much salt as I want to, thank you very much!
So take this with a grain of salt: I've read him as newbish town. And his posting has gotten better as the game's gone on.
You never explained, by the way, why Pops antagonistic play is "too obv to be Mafia", but Jo's antagonistic play is "obvscum".
Still, unless you have no faith in your own argument against Glooble, I fail to see why my voting for him should bother you?
You never explained, by the way, why Pops antagonistic play is "too obv to be Mafia", but Jo's antagonistic play is "obvscum".
Still, unless you have no faith in your own argument against Glooble, I fail to see why my voting for him should bother you?
The idea that Jo and Pops are playing similarly antagonistic games is ludicrous. Jo is a chameleon--he changes what he is doing/saying/thinking at the drop of the hat. He is waay to reactive. And confrontational. And directionless. And a liar about not caring whether he dies.
Pops is a consistent irritant.
Well, I had more faith in my Glooble argument before the twin-claim. It seems like you, and maybe another person or two, want to protect Jo. So either I have to trust me reading of Jo, or I trust you. (Unfortunately, I trust neither...)
Grujah ("derp not bandwagoning townies is a scumtell")
Alright gentlemen. What's the plan? This thread has been stalled for much too long. Every once in awhile something happens, there's a brief spark, and then silence. We're not forcing the Mafia to speak, and that is never going to get us anywhere. You're not going to just check back in and find a dandy little Mafia identifying post.
I'm not in a rush to lynch (I know Robz and Axxle want Jo's head and be done with it), but the deadline IS this coming Monday, correct? If we the town don't talk, the Mafia certainly aren't going to start generating conversation. So let's go. I don't care if every idea has been rehashed to pieces, we need to do SOMETHING.
So Vote: Glooble. Let's get some conversation going again. Make the Mafia have to work to hide.
Lynch Jo if you must, fine. I hope he comes up Mafia. I just REALLY don't think he will, and I think there are a lot better targets. For one, the twinclaim to me makes it MORE likely Glooble is Mafia, not less. I'm not entirely sure why that would suddenly make a doubter of you after you put together your big, long case against him...
Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.
Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.
So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.
Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.
Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.
So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.
Ha! I'm moving up in the world of Galz suspicion.
I have a suspicion that either of us (as town) are likely to see the other as potential Mafia, based on who voted for Axxle1. In my mind - if we lynch J, and he flips mafia, then I would suspect you heavily... I would even point to this above post as paving the grounds for a day 3 lynch of town. If I really thought that J was mafia, then I would have hammered him. I tend to agree with him on the frustration of the town ganging up on him for no reason - based on how I feel when someone points the FOS @ me, and then watching theory rage against the universe when being lynched, despite the fact that he's such a nice mild mannered dude IRL.
I tend to agree with your list from a few pages back... I'm not a big fan of Pops / Axxle either. I want to let you and J off the hook, but I'm really not understanding this Glooble vote.
This is harder than it looks. The more people are suspicious of me, the less I feel like contributing for fear of accidentally saying something else that makes me look totally scummy. I feel like every time I post, people jump on me. So I lurk, which also looks scummy, but in this not-very-active town there isn't as much pressure to contribute. That's a bad setup for town, and a good one for Mafia. This is almost certainly a town where mafia is hiding in the shadows, and I fully understand how we all reached that conclusion and why that makes me look very bad right now.
I don't know what to do about it. I could give you in-depth reasons for every suspicious looking post I've made, but I could do that just as easily if I were scum. Still, if people want that, I will happily do it.
If I actually try to scumhunt, I'm "deflecting" or "redirecting" and that makes me look like mafia.
The town needs to take a good look at the possible lynch candidates, and choose one everyone agrees is most likely to be mafia, or barring that, the one who's flip would be the most instructive. If that turns out to be me, I will not hold it against anyone - my play has been sub-par and I have not been the most active player. But I don't want that to happen. I think we can have a good chance of actually lynching scum tonight.
Even if Galz has given up his case against pops, I still find it compelling. Investigate him at night, sure, but that implies we have an actual cop in addition to our one-shot cop and that that person will be willing to expose himself. I don't think it's something we can count on.
I know my pops vote seemed rash and reactive, but I have since seen no reason to unvote him. If I have time today, I will look back and see if anyone seems more likely to be scum to me. I'm still getting bad vibes from Axxle2 and O.
Sorry for not being more helpful.
Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?
Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.
Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.
Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.
Isn't this what we just did to eachother (emphasis mine?)
Sadly, as I don't think you're scum (not unless Jo is Mafia), lynching both of us would be really, really bad for the town.
The explanations are all over the thread and they form a twisty but very reasonable progression of decisions. It's not as simple as "I decided to be crazy and here's why"Which is detailed enough and consistent enough that I'm tending toward believing it instead of thinking it's a fabrication.
...
Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?
Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.
Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.
PEdit: I don't think Axxle2 is scum FWIW...
Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?
Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.
Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.
Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?
Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.
Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.
We're looking at Axxle. We're not looking at Robz.
I get a town read from Robz, but I got a town read from Robz once before and look where it got me. The man plays the game well, and I don't particularly trust or value my gut reads. I'm starting to go from "It's frustrating that he's the one townie who's not seeing that I'm town" to "Maybe he's not seeing that I'm town on purpose."
I mean, I can see mafia defending me OR pushing me at this point, because both of those things are going to be 100% defensible even if I flip town. Which is the big problem with my play this game. BUT once we get to the point where a lot of the "good players" who I respect (Galz, O, pops) are able to look past my weird play and declare a town read, the holdouts start to look more and more suspicious.
All this could apply to Tables/SFS too, but they sort of have to be both town or both scum, given SFS's investigation claim. And everyone (myself included) seems to agree that both town is much more likely.
But voting for me is very much in character for those two as town. Axxle and Robz, less so, IMO.
For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general. I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day. I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII. (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.
For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general. I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day. I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII. (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.
He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.
For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general. I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day. I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII. (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.
He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.
I'd Frisk-personal-policy-lynch O because I don't like his playstyle, he got me killed in M3 (rage!), and he continues to think I'm scum everywhere I go, but I see no evidence from him that justifies a legitimate scumread, which is probably just the way O likes it, scum or not.
So we've had 1 full wagon of J, and 2 mini wagons on Galz and Pops. Did these fizzle because we were targeting mafia and couldn't push them over because we need something like 7/9 non mafia to vote, or did they fizzle because the arguments were just no good? They could also fizzle because we have several non frequent posters: SFS, Tables, Grujah, Glooble.
That's actually a REALLY good point about the infrequent posters. With 12 alive, even assuming only 3 Mafia (possibly 4?), that leaves 9 people to hit Mafia today, 7 of which must vote together. If all, or any number of the infrequent posters are town, that makes it exponentially harder, as they may come in to vote, but aren't around to do much scumhunting.
Hmm... Food for thought on our odds. :-/
There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.
There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.
Bullcrap. I made the point that survivalist tell isn't scumtell.
What analysis have you made?
Also I've been in Hawaii for a week. Still posted a bunch but I really hate Ipads and won't post anything long on them.
Vote:Tables for lurking, then redirection for bad reasons.
Why does no one listen to me. That was a scumslip. And why in this thread so arrogant and stuck up that they think they can read joth better than his TWIN BROTHER can. Like, I'm totally arrogant, stuck up, egotistical and full of myself but I'm STILL not enough of a winbag to play as if I can interpret joth's interpersonal communication as well as the guy with MATCHING GENETIC CODE AND CHILDHOOD can.This is why I said that Glooble and Joth are on the same team. The read can be wrong if they're both scum. I'm leaning toward them both being town atm.
Like, seriously, seriously?, seriously.
Yes, Glooble's read doesn't set joth's odds of being scum to zero. But it should stupidly obviously be an expert opinion. A professional poker player is reading over your shoulder telling you to fold and you're going all in. Yeah, technically you could be right and he could be wrong, maybe you get lucky and draw a flush. But you know that putting your money on your own abilities and not his makes you a curse word I don't want to put on f.ds.
Do I even need to explain how terrible that post is?
Unvote, Vote: O for OMGUSing, making fake accusations and redirection for terrible reasons.
What analysis have I made? I made a post last page about how O's been lurking, about Joth's wagon, on Joth's behavior and on the Pops/Galz debate. And that's just from page 70 onwards.
I don't post often because I'm not online often, but when I post my posts have substance. That's something you've been lacking right from day 1.
And as I typed this Pops has jumped in. Which is interesting. I was going to unvote and vote back to Joth but... no, actually, I still think that's better. There's been so little discussion about O that if he flips town, we get nothing, while we get something from Joth, and regardless I think Joth is more likely scum.
*Er, Unvote, Vote: Joth.I don't understand what you're talking about Tables, it looks like you're responding to O, and you say you were unvoting O even though you weren't even voting O? What?
What was up with tables double votes? I don't really understand.
He wanted to vote for O without really voting for me....wat.
He wanted to vote for O without really voting for me....wat.
I can see town making that mistake, but I see scum making that mistake more often than town. Lashing out doesn't do much good. I've seen scum lynched for slips like that, and (fewer) town lynched for similar slips. They happen, and they're decent material to work with. Scum tend to know "what's going on" less in general, and it can be a helpful rule of thumb (that's largely empirical, I can't very strongly explain why).
I've made a post saying O is scummy before, I expressed that I did not like how he did not take a side day 1 amongst the leading wagons and instead just camped out a vote on me. And then Day 2 he criticized the mislynch, as if his lack of participation in actually stringing people up was deliberate. He also just has been largely useless, like table says. He posts forgettably, he doesn't make a lot of posts that have me remembering "oh that guy is looking for scum". The best thing I ever think about his posts is "this guy has a funky anti-town playstyle and I don't think I'll be able to do much to read him", which is an information vacuum that this slip expands to fill.
Couple things.
O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.
Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.
Erm, I really don't think I post infrequently enough to be lumped with the other semi-lurkers. Not that it really matters, but I at least post 1-3 times almost every day...I dont currently have time to investigate this claim, but if anyone is keeping post counts it should be easy to verify or debunk. One of the reasons I chose Tables to investigate is that (at the time) he had almost no posts - the only person we had heard from less (as I recall) was Green Opal.
Explain yo'self O. IIRC you're in the SFS is obvtown camp. SFS claims to have investigated and cleared Tables. You just accused and voted Tables (I'm assuming that means you think he's mafia).DUDE, wtf? I VERY specifically stated that I investigated Tables and he came back as town, THEN ARDUOUSLY SPELLED OUT WHAT THAT MEANT. I then later went through that again in a later post, ARDUOSLY NOT QUOTING VOLTGLOSS AS PM. NONE OF THAT "CLEARS TABLES".
So do you (A) no longer believe SFS is town, (B) believe SFS is town but Tables somehow investigated falsely, or (C) believe Tables is town but voted him anyway?
Wanted to make sure discussion starts before everyone dissapears
Wanted to make sure discussion starts before everyone dissapears
*poof*
You're being picky SFS. In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy. The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten. Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity. No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles. So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time. Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced. Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.Pops, my intent was not to be picky, but rather to hold people accountable, which I have promised to do, and to prevent misinformation from being spread. Given that several subsequent posts have been in the vein of "oh yeah, I forgot about that" I think its important that we accurately remember exactly what "that" was.
I'm willing to consider a Grujah wagon over a Glooble wagon, but Gloobles on it... also if I vote Grujah I'm sure everyone will call it an OMGUS vote.
I honestly can't say I have great reads atm. Jo reads town, very town. Tables and SFS keep topping each other over with inane/scummy posts and yet our two closest things to confirmed town. Glooble seems slightly scummier to me than Grujah but both are relatively scummy, especially because Grujah's vote on me seems more like a calculated wagon started then a reaction to anything I said, mostly because I've never really posted much of a read on Grujah I think.
Galz reads townish to me aswell I guess.
Wow, how is it in a span of ten posts I can go from middling/high suspicion of a guy to really uncomfortable? I guess this is where I'm supposed to run the wagon home, but my goodness it started rolling quick.
The interesting thing is the spread of players (on my suspicion list) on this wagon. We range from O (decent town read), to Pops (strongest Mafia read), and just about everywhere in between.
And yet I really can't DISLIKE this wagon. Hmm... could this honestly be a quick rolling town wagon on scum? Gah. Don't trust it.
I believe we all (except maybe Pops) feel that way.I believe everyone except for me feels that way.
I'm now almost certain Grujah is NOT mafia, due to the ease with which he gets to 1 vote short of lynch.
There's 6 of you voting this way. I'd bet 3 or 4 of you are getting seriously outplayed by the 2 or 3 of you who are mafia.
I need to go back and look at something. I'll have more in a minute. I'm begging one of you to unvote immediately.
Points to Glooble for unvoting. Negative points to O for ridiculous statement about me trying to defend Grujah. I was the first person to call him scummy on Day 1 (not that I expect you to remember that).
...you put ALL three mafia in a 5man bandwagon, and none on Me, Glooble or Jo?
You used numbers at first that implied that 1 mafia was within the Axxle wagon, now you're saying 3 mafia. Even with the addittion of me (you assuming, falsely, that I'm scum) that doesn't add up.
I think it's ludicrous to say that 3 mafia are among these 5 people. I don't think all of the 2-4 (probably 3) mafia would all jump in a bandwagon TWO DAYS IN A ROW. That just seems ridiculous. I'm not sure where you put possible SK in your "scum" count.
Grujah has clear, obvious reasons to be lynched -> He lurks, has made generally unhelpful posts that appear slightly scummy to me at least. There are crap-logic bandwagons against Jo, and yet you claim that those wagons are empty of scum.
Yes, because calling somebody scummy D1 SO clears you as a possible teammate.
Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN
I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops
So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?
So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?
So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?
SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.
These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.
Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops
In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.
Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.
O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?
Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy
I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.
Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.
A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.
So no, I'm not waiting for tomorrow. I'm bringing this up now, because the fact that Grujah rapidly accrued 6 votes from 5 of the same people who mislynched Axxle1 is astonishing and interesting and scummy.
So no, I'm not waiting for tomorrow. I'm bringing this up now, because the fact that Grujah rapidly accrued 6 votes from 5 of the same people who mislynched Axxle1 is astonishing and interesting and scummy.
Ok that's it. You find it scummy that 5 votes from Axxle wagon are on the Grujah wagon, AND THEN POINT OUT THE ONE PERSON NOT ON THE AXXLE WAGON AS MAFIA.
Can anybody go through and list all the people Robz has all but cleared? I see 8 of 12. Great numbers for someone who knows nothing:
Pops - Too obvious to be scum, can't be Mafia
SFS - Obvtown, can't be Mafia
Grujah - Got bandwagoned, can't be Mafia
Glooble - Twinclaim, can't be Mafia
Robz - Well he's Robz,, can't be Mafia
Dsell - Opened the Jo wagon D2, can't be Mafia
Tables - Investigated innocent, can't be Mafia
Axxle2 - mislynched D1, can't be Mafia
Really now...
And the tone-down-when-called-out. And the scumslip earlier tonight. I'm revising my town read on you, O.
Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.
Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.
Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.
A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.
Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.
A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.
I see two very different attitudes back to back here.
Can anybody go through and list all the people Robz has all but cleared? I see 8 of 12. Great numbers for someone who knows nothing:
Pops - Too obvious to be scum, can't be Mafia
SFS - Obvtown, can't be Mafia
Grujah - Got bandwagoned, can't be Mafia
Glooble - Twinclaim, can't be Mafia
Robz - Well he's Robz,, can't be Mafia
Dsell - Opened the Jo wagon D2, can't be Mafia
Tables - Investigated innocent, can't be Mafia
Axxle2 - mislynched D1, can't be Mafia
Really now...
Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.
He did now? I'm pretty sure you've vaguely cast suspicion on Grujah four or five times at least. I'd have to look back to be sure, but I think you've had votes on him both days. I voted for him D1 myself. He's an obvious, easy target. Frisk was the first one to put a vote to him, but I don't think that makes Frisk look worse than the rest of us. Not much anyway.
Is a no lynch better than a mislynch at this point? If we lynch Grujah and he flips town, we lose a townie who barely posts and gain at least some vaguely helpful information about who voted to lynch him. If he flips Mafia (or SK), we have more information and one fewer scum.
No lynch = no chance of decreasing scum (unless we have a vig) and significantly less data to analyze tomorrow. Unless the Mafia politely kills someone who had a bandwagon on them and we can analyze that.
SO is information worth the possibility of killing a townie who has contributed very little to the conversation? That's the question we should be asking ourselves right now, in my estimation. If I decide the answer is yes, I will revote before the deadline. Provided the grujah wagon hasn't evaporated by then.
This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.
Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.
This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.
Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.
Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.
In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.
In MII I was mafia.
You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.
Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.
So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?
I guess it is.
Still found thisYeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.
So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?
So yea, you're now down to 2/5.
Because I said O and Morgrim, will you admit to being the mafia? Uh.... that was needling. Trying to evoke a response. Did not think you were mafia.
Because I said O and Morgrim, will you admit to being the mafia? Uh.... that was needling. Trying to evoke a response. Did not think you were mafia.
...but the only person you did more to than needle was eevee, and even then you didn't argue altogether that much to try and get him lynched.
Anyways we're getting sidetracked here; mostly my fault. We should focus on your crackpot theory (Where you manage to accuse me, a townie, and someone I have a townread on), and how it's inane.
Mainly, pointing out trios/pairs at this point is inane. you go for singular scum, not trios.
I love how Robz basically stated "no, I'm not sure" about any of them, and then proceeded to explain why each is likely town.
Furthermore, he scrambles to derail a wagon, and then comes out with "well, if I'm wrong and he flips Mafia everybody go back to what they were doing and forget I ever defended him" - Yes Robz,, that's a paraphrase, but was the gist of you're post.
Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.
Okay, yes. We are getting sidetracked. Because you sidetracked us, saying more things that weren't accurate. My bad.Wow? I blamed myself. No need to be pissy and rude about it.
Now for my crackpot theory, that looks for mafia groups. This is actually the only way to really find mafia, is to start saying, "Well, if he is mafia, then not he..." etc.
Look, I know you all want to trust your "reads" which I think are whatever and usually wrong and were certainly wrong yesterday (not yours specifically, O--see how I manage to get your voting history correct? it's not that hard).More smartassery. I was enjoying our debate and keeping it mostly civil (at least more civil than you are). Why do you feel the need to add cheeky insults to this?
But, look, somebody is fooling us, and doing it in groups.It's not clear that A) anyone was fooling us until you came along or B) there is any group fooling us instead of single people
And this is an interesting groups. And on top of that, I think O and Galzria are trying to poke holes in the theory that make them come off looking much worse.No crap. Except we do this whether we're town or mafia. Survivalisttell is not scumtell. Derp derp derp derp/
Whereas someone like Glooble pre-emptively unvoted and has had the good sense to stay there.
Too bad we have, like, way way way way too much has happened today to actualyl look at patterns like that. So I took the easiest pattern I could--lynch votes on day 1--and compared them to a possible lynch of Grujah. If you think I've misidentified you, fine. Do you honestly not see any merit in my theory?
Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.
8 viewers of thread, 3 mafia players on I believe.
Yea we better we damn entertaining.
Robz, its ok <3. Just needed to check you there.
Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.
CONFIDENT? Says the guy who throws around votes and "100% certainties" all the time. To be clear: I am NOT confident or certain or sure of anything.
What I am is highly suspicious that the bandwagon against Grujah came together--quickly and instantly--when other bandwagons failed. And that it includes all (plus O) of the people from the previous day. This is not interesting to you? Come on, Galz. I mean, don't, because I think you're mafia. I'm not sure of it! You could very well not be. No confidence. Just my thoughts.
Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.
CONFIDENT? Says the guy who throws around votes and "100% certainties" all the time. To be clear: I am NOT confident or certain or sure of anything.
What I am is highly suspicious that the bandwagon against Grujah came together--quickly and instantly--when other bandwagons failed. And that it includes all (plus O) of the people from the previous day. This is not interesting to you? Come on, Galz. I mean, don't, because I think you're mafia. I'm not sure of it! You could very well not be. No confidence. Just my thoughts.
Please point me to a post in this thread where I listed percentages. No?
Let's try M-III. Oh, found one did you? Was out the one on Jo (where I was right), or the one on you (where I was right)? Maybe the one I listed Volt as highly likely? Wait, I was right there too?
You know, for someone who is SO sure his reads are better than everybodies in the game, can you point to one Mafia lynch vote you've been on since the final Axxle lynch in M-I?
I'm hardly perfect with my reads, but I don't have the arrogance to tell everybody how much better my reads are than theirs.
This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.
I mean, we all know the only people with superior reads here and myself and popsofctown. That's just given.
One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.
Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.
Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.
Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables, and Grujah searched the deceased Lord's Throne Room, hoping for the key, or clues, or both.
When that didn't work, they did it again.
Vote Count 1-13
popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown
Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.
It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.
Well, in that case.
Ahem.
Pick me! I'm scum!
Jotheonah:
Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz
I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..
It was Robz who looked bad at first.
Jotheonah:
Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz
I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..
So much wrong with this. I'm not focusing attention on you, Robz is and, more importantly, you are. Second, the Grujah wagon is far from defused and I'M STILL ON IT.
And on top of all that I'm supposed to believe that the strong town read you've had on me all game, despite all the crazy, instantly evaporates when I put the tiniest bit of suspicion on you? OMGUS much?
His case has you and O and a third member of the team, who could be CF. I don't really have to believe I'm scum to buy into it.
And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.
I know I'm the one who said survivalism isn't a scum tell. But acting like you have five votes on you when you have one FoS? That's the only scum tell I really trust. That's how i got busted in MIII. You guys got WAY TOO MAD and WAY TOO DISMISSIVE of a post by Robz that, while over-authoritarian and oddly timed, is not that ridiculous. His assertion that this wagon built too quickly? We all agree that's legitimate. His analysis of the Axxle wagon and this wagon? Seems like an apt thing to do at this juncture. I wasn't buying the conclusions drawn from that at first, but I'm not used to this level of defensiveness from either of you, particularly Galzria. So yeah, I'm suspicious and getting suspiciouser.
Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.
What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.
Whoah. I check in tonight with 1 vote and get up this morning at L-2. I won't claim anything yet, still not at -1 (though, If I count Glooble who Unvoted, I kinda am?).
Ok. I Know that I was suspicious to many back from D1, and that we are in pressure with time (to which I also contributed) but that was still an extremely fast forming wagon. I refuse to believe that it was 6 townies who suddenly all went - "Oh, I distrust Grujah 'nff to immediately switch to him" THAT FAST. I understand Frisk's "inactive townie is bad cause its harder to get a right lynch", but this is not about that.
Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
"Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble
Joth just plays aweful. I seriously can't believe half of his posts. Even his twin-buddy called him out just now. If anyone should get policy lynch, it's him, not me. He also done this stupidest hedge ever where after voting for me he said "give him a chance to explain himself". DSUFGSDFGHSUHand of Suspicion on almost everyone else? Check. Also the part about me is just rude. You're not online much, dude. I thought it would be nice to give you a chance to respond rather than lynching you with no warning. Excuse me.
one more thing. Pops. He seemed to be eager jumping on wagons early.
He followed my vote on O (Ok, with his own, different reason, but, might be just taking an opportunity. Also, SFS can be nitpicky, O can't?). He followed votes on me. Not much, but suspicious.
O's vote had a bit OMGUS feel, but not taking that against him.
Holy crap.
I went to bed thinking we might have 1-2 more votes, but we nearly lynched him?
unvote
I don't like any wagon that nearly lynched with prime townreads off doing whatever.
I'm going out for the morning and I don't want to mislynch while I'm sitting and drinking coffee.
I will return and re vote for someone, possibly grujah around 11 am eastern
Thanks for telling us what it isn't about, despite the fact that almost everyone of us pointed to this as a reason for your lynch.
Now that we've had this fascinating Robz-exchange, your lynch will also be quite informational.
Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
"Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble
@Tables: Can you explain the dichotomy between your assertions in posts #1923 and 1927 (sorry for the lack of quotes, I'm on an unfamiliar laptop with no ******* mouse but the built-in and I'm really having trouble getting everything to work easily). In one of those two posts, you say (paraphrasing) "I don't think I'm lurking, I post 1 to 3 times a day almost every day". In the other, you say (paraphrasing) "I dont post that often cause I'm not online often". I don't see how both can be true, yet these assertions are only 4 posts apart.
I've read tons of Tables posts today that looked like they seem scummy as mess, but since he is actually an outlier in the extra information I have on him as a townie, I always remembered not to bother with it.
In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.
It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.
Vote: O
I'd bet 3 or 4 of you are getting seriously outplayed by the 2 or 3 of you who are mafia.
I'm standing by this lynch and waiting for the flip.
Dsell - No opinion one way or the other. But when I have 5 or so strong suspects, yes, he's safely acquitted.
- dick slamming contest between O / Robz ...
Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.
Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.
2/3 is fantabulous brah.This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.
Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.
Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.
In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.
In MII I was mafia.
You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.
Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.
You did exactly the same things you accuse him of:
Suspicion everywhere, voting for other popular candidate.
2/3 is fantabulous brah.This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.
Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.
Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.
In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.
In MII I was mafia.
You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.
Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.
You did exactly the same things you accuse him of:
Suspicion everywhere, voting for other popular candidate.
As Pops says, hypocrisy is not a scum tell. Also, when I did it I didn't have a bandwagon on my back. When I did have a bandwagon on my back, I voted for myself.
And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.
And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.
Joth does good work in fits and starts.
I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.
And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.
Joth does good work in fits and starts.
In this post that you quote, j never answers the question - which is - if you believe robz's theory - which does not include grujah as potential suspect - then why is he still voting for grujah? and it's not like he's just not unvoting. He continues to actively push for a kill.
@O As far as I'm concerned, Robz has spun a great theory - if Grujah flips town. If Grujah flips scum it all kind of falls apart though. So what I'd really like to do is table all this nonsense for tomorrow and get on with the lynch that a good portion of the town seemed willing to get behind.
Grujah's flip will paint tonight's events in a much clearer light, and it won't hurt the town too much.
Probably O. "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1.
Probably O. "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1.
But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.
I really don't think me or Galz is scum.
And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?
You, after my flip.Probably O. "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1.
But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.
I really don't think me or Galz is scum.
And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?
I joined your Pops wagon D1... :'(
I should've stayed on it instead of going with Axxle. We would be down 1 scum in this town.
You, after my flip.Probably O. "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1.
But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.
I really don't think me or Galz is scum.
And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?
I joined your Pops wagon D1... :'(
I should've stayed on it instead of going with Axxle. We would be down 1 scum in this town.
Well two days before deadline is definitely the best time to be starting a bunch of new wagons. I'm so glad superrobz cut in when he did. We were getting dangerously close to actually accomplishing something.
I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.
it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.
pairings without flips are dumb.
I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.
it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.
pairings without flips are dumb.
I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.
it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.
pairings without flips are dumb.
I think "part of my iso" was in response to my question about prisms, not to O's question about pairings, which was directed at me.
QUOTE BUTTON IS OUR FRIEND.
Ugggghhhhhhhhh
Will be REAL (as in, no internet access) V/LA very very soon for about ~48 hours. I want a lynch, so I'm going to park myself on the most likely consensus vote that I would still like to see a lynch of.
VOTE:Popsofctown unless anyone has any better ideas.
BTW Pops totally stole my meta from... every forum Mafia game. I've always said random lynch>nolynch, and you narbs never believed me.
Ugggghhhhhhhhh
Will be REAL (as in, no internet access) V/LA very very soon for about ~48 hours. I want a lynch, so I'm going to park myself on the most likely consensus vote that I would still like to see a lynch of.
VOTE:Popsofctown unless anyone has any better ideas.
BTW Pops totally stole my meta from... every forum Mafia game. I've always said random lynch>nolynch, and you narbs never believed me.
I have always argued lynching is better than not. I just have always felt we can do better than random. ;)
Ha! I chuckled.
Ha! I chuckled.
That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?
Ha! I chuckled.
That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?
They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.
Ha! I chuckled.
That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?
They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.
Yes, I quoted you, but really tables was cleared by pops in his request for rankings. Pops?
Ha! I chuckled.
That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?
They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.
Yes, I quoted you, but really tables was cleared by pops in his request for rankings. Pops?
SFS is cleared to me, but I could understand others arguing that he should be on the table. No need to confuse the issue when the point I was trying to make was a different one.
Oh and I got ninjaed, I was talking to joth. Sorry. And I just forgot to quote.
I'm not quite sure when my play isn't erratic; panicy is some nice flavor text you added. I do not think any theory involving me as mafia is "crackpot" (though of course I know them false), just this 3-out-of-4 Bombshell by Robz. Mostly because if we followed it I believe the town has a chance of losing pretty quickly: Lynch grujah, and if he's town: Lynch Galz/O as per Robz theory, I'm town/Galz probably is town, and then because of people like Tables/SFS lynch the other "partner", and oh look, he's town and we're at 3 misslynches because of one theory.
If it was a single small mistake, why did you immediately vote for me?
Honestly, I can smell the troll-bait. At the VERY least I provided a link to Talihandur's tells, which is more than you've done.
I feel the need in most games to respond to every vote against me, but since this one is so clearly personal instead of scumhunting I'm pretty sure I can just ignore it after this post.
Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players
I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.
Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players
I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.
You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.
Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players
I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.
You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.
Why are my reads of you terrible? We were both mafia in MII, and in MIII I did not think you were mafia and I was correct.
You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.
Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.
Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.
Sorry, yeah. I thought it might be when I posted it, but I'm honestly frustrated with his terrible logic of magically having found 3 Mafia in 4 players. It's ridiculously confident on a group. I won't deny there might be one, hell, even TWO in there, but saying "I trust these 8, and think the 3 Mafia are amongst these 4" is arrogant and setting the town up for failure.
Furthermore, I KNOW his read on ME is terrible, which basically means his logic says "there are 3 Mafia amongst those 3 players". So when he continuously posts about my being Mafia and wanting to lynch me, it completely discredits anything he says. The fact that he has admitted many times over to being unable to read me just compounds this terrible play by him.
Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.
Sorry, yeah. I thought it might be when I posted it, but I'm honestly frustrated with his terrible logic of magically having found 3 Mafia in 4 players. It's ridiculously confident on a group. I won't deny there might be one, hell, even TWO in there, but saying "I trust these 8, and think the 3 Mafia are amongst these 4" is arrogant and setting the town up for failure.
Furthermore, I KNOW his read on ME is terrible, which basically means his logic says "there are 3 Mafia amongst those 3 players". So when he continuously posts about my being Mafia and wanting to lynch me, it completely discredits anything he says. The fact that he has admitted many times over to being unable to read me just compounds this terrible play by him.
Galzria, please stop. I am not saying definitively "these are the 3 mafia. You must believe me." I am saying that I think a high number of mafia is among these people, for the reasons I spelled out. Do you honestly see no merit to my argument? And do you see how you and O have reacted especially poorly?
Okay then, what you're saying is GODDAMN YOU ROBZ, YOU UNBELIEVABLE MORON, YOU'RE MOSTLY CORRECT, YOU FOOL!
But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...
I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.
Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.
What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?
But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...
But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.
I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.
Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.
What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?
Yes, and I made it quite clear I did NOT want you to. I wanted you to go after Jo instead.
But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...
But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.
At least one of my "probably not scum" reads IS wrong, probably. But I don't know which one. And I don't have any evidence for which one. So I would rather shoot for mafia in the small group of people I highly suspect than in the moderate sized group of people I don't particularly suspect. Cant you see that?
*continues eating popcorn*
Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*
Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.
r u saying that? I honestly not cant tell.*continues eating popcorn*
Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*
Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.
More scum lies. Are you incapable of understanding "I don't think you're Mafia and could point to a single, particular, pro,town post you made"? Or is it just convenient to try and posh two townies to do your work for you?
I'm looking at the names on the lists so far, and it's interesting. Ideally I'd like DSell and Frisk's opinions, but I'll continue as is for now.
Vote: Galzria
The logic of his arguments is not up to snuff lately. For instance, he keeps saying to Robz that it doesn't make sense to be suspicious of the Grujah bandwagon but not of my Day 1 bandwagon, even though Robz has laid out the substantial differences between those wagons (including (A) the similarities between that and the Axxle1 wagon and (B) the fact that this wagon built much faster). There are other things too. He seems to feel like he can make Robz's theory crazy by repeating that it's crazy enough times. Digging in + ignoring arguments = scummy, especially for Galz.
Not loving O either right now. But getting the scummiest vibe from G-money lately.
I still don't like the way you're arguing here, Galz. You're repeating points instead of expounding on them. You have this affectation of "if you believe this you're just dumb" which I don't read as accurate, and I therefore read as an emotional manipulation of the argument.
O lynch is go lynch
For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general. I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day. I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII. (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)How so much changes after so short amount of time.
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.
Have to go for a while.
Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.
O lynch is go lynch
You ask us to put together a list - directly ignore questions on how we should use it - then you disappear for a while, and this is what you come back with?
Can't post more - have company for dinner - but seriously!
I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going. A vote count would be useful.Vote: O (L-2)
Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?
Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah? Table's magic list said so? He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him?
Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?
Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".
If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.
Finished.
I'm going to start putting a lot of content together to summarize my impressions/ideas about who is scum as well as reasoning for my vote, but for now and since we have so little time, Vote: Galzria. In short, reading through these pages I at one point had completely bought into everything he was saying before realizing that he was still possible mafia. When I looked at what he said with that possibility in mind AND in light of some of the things he's said recently (ok I thought Robz was crazy at first too but I understood what he was meaning waaaay sooner than Galz did, and Galz was pretty rough on him about it), I actually feel VERY worried that he's mafia and exactly where he wants to be: front and center with a mix of people trusting and distrusting him.
I know it looks crazy that I'm getting on the bandwagon with the person I've campaigned hardest against, but jo is probably only my 3rd or 4th most-likely-to-be-mafia at this point.
I could support lynching O but I have some strong misgivings about it. He's been crazy and quite oddly defensive D2, but I don't believe he's ever been in serious hot water before in any game. I fear that lynching him, whether he flips mafia or town, will give us a lot of information about how O plays but not so much information we can use to make good lynches on future days. Obviously lynching mafia, if he is mafia, is worth it. But he's not at the top of my suspicions list and I still believe we have time to make a better choice.
Also, was O meaning that he was leaving immediately? Is he gone? Because that would be sucky to lynch someone while they're gone/a convenient excuse depending on how you look at it. But Axxle, if he's really gone I wouldn't be expecting a claim from him.
Like I said, more content to come.
(But I have agreed with a lot. I think calling for Grujah's wagon to stop was smart because man that thing looked mafia fueled...that said I'm actually still pretty suspicious of him, so I'm unsure how to justify those two lines of thought).
I'm on eastern time, and was out in the sun all day - so I'm turning in. I'll be up early and will review in advance of deadline. I am skeptical of O lynch - in my mind this is effectively a random lynch because O plays to not release any information... I don't see what we get - especially since everyone can claim they voted for O because of deadline...
I will hammer Pops or Galz in the morning if it is needed to avoid nolynch. I am less likely to hammer anyone else, and my vote is still on J.
@Galz - if you flip town, I want to lynch Pops next. Ditto for if Pops = town -> lynch you. I would PREFER to lynch pops, if only because I enjoy reading your posts... rather than "it rhymes" vote justifications.
That said - your bickering with RobZ, your crazy gambit, your willingness to vote for someone who isn't even in your top 6 (according to the tables spreadsheet) all feel strange to me... especially considering that your "I'd rather lynch J than O" strikes me as strange given that they both had 3 votes on them when you cast your vote.
Lynch me if you must, but what do you learn when I flip pro-town? This question is actually for everybody, but Joth's vote on me means nothing to me, whereas Dsell's does, so I put the question here.
Lynch me if you must, but what do you learn when I flip pro-town? This question is actually for everybody, but Joth's vote on me means nothing to me, whereas Dsell's does, so I put the question here.
I think this is an important question to consider with whomever we lynch. Obviously we don't have time to consider it with much length before the deadline, but maybe that's for the best so we don't have our whole day 3 planned out before day 2 is over.
Anyway...aside from the obvious analysis of your bandwagon and defenders, one thing that is interesting to me about you, Galz, is that when people made their lists, a lot of people said they were suspicious of you without putting you at the top of their lists/giving strong reasons for it. That seems like an easy way for a mafioso to disalign themselves from you, their partner, without actually putting you in much danger of a lynch.
I can't remember who said they dislike the lists because the mafia can just pick someone who is on everyone's list to try to lynch. This is true, but it's sooo easy for mafia to list their partners without too much concern. Everyone's list is going to be a little different and probably nearly everyone's list is going to be partially wrong. So I think the lists are a decent tool but I certainly don't think too much stock should be put in them. Heck, for those who I said I'm most suspicious of, I'm guaranteed to be wrong about at least one person, and that assumes that we have 4 mafia and I suspect all of them.
Besides, the chances that we are actually going to lynch someone who appears on only a couple people's list is just so small right now. And I really can't believe that we don't suspect ANY mafia at all right now.
And if you're lynched and you do flip town? Well I actually think that we gain a lot. You've done a ton of scumhunting, and we will be able to look at all of that and trust it all with 100% certainty (at this point especially I am unable to do that because it's looking to me like tons of mafia distraction). It's true that we would lose you for future scumhunting which would be very unfortunate, but losing a townie is usually unfortunate. But I'm not voting for Galzria because I think he's the best choice if he flips town, I'm voting because I think he's the most likely to flip scum of the main choices.
I'm getting epic indecision, so I just can't seriouspost in this thread anymore. Un lieu of new information I'm not going to feel like anything but poetry until the day ends.
New prediction: we won't lynch anyone.
I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.
Question for all, including Jo: How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?
But after the way he has played these last two irl days, I really don't believe that's the case anymore. He's been intentionally divisive, willfully ignorant, and so completely smug with himself that I really fail tutti draw many other conclusions.
I most once again implore everybody not to lynch Pops. I just don't think he would act this way if he was mafia. What's more, he has been consistent in his unhelpful, short, nuttiness. Whereas O and Galzria reacted very intriguingly to getting some heat put on them by me and my theory.
New prediction: we won't lynch anyone.
I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.
Question for all, including Jo: How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?
New prediction: we won't lynch anyone.
I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.
Question for all, including Jo: How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?
Good lord I'd like to know that too. I think on my part, because I actually felt BAD for him earlier. I thought his play was irksome, but not scummy. But after the way he has played these last two irl days, I really don't believe that's the case anymore. He's been intentionally divisive, willfully ignorant, and so completely smug with himself that I really fail tutti draw many other conclusions.
Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?
2 hours left, obviously nothings gonna change drastically, only Galz and Frisk online.
O i considered decent lynch candidate, so,
Unvote
Vote: O
2 hours left, obviously nothings gonna change drastically, only Galz and Frisk online.
O i considered decent lynch candidate, so,
Unvote
Vote: O
You JUST voted for me an hour and a half ago man. Why the sudden switch back to O, putting him at L-1, so close to deadline? Multiple people have made it clear they want to lynch me first.
I don't know. I don't like lynching O, but don't mind either since I really can't read him, but your switch here just feels opportunistic.
Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.
Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.
Keep it scummy Jo.
Still won't hammer your partner, huh? Good call.
What a mess. OK, I'll do this. I don't have many good reasons, but here they are:
1) Robz is my biggest town read right now, and he's parked on O.
2) I don't want no lynch, and there are no other likely candidates with 90 minutes left.
3) Jo will never be lynched.
Concerns:
1) O hasn't been here to claim (so this will be another screwup my part regarding claiming, but hey, it's a game).
2) If O flips town, mafia have successfully gotten the guy most generally viewed as Town to hammer another townie.
Request for PR's: Protect someone other than me, cause I'm mostly done with this game.
UNVOTE
VOTE: O (aka .)
Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.
Keep it scummy Jo.
Still won't hammer your partner, huh? Good call.
I'm here watchin, ain't I? I was willing to throw that hammer but I thought we'd give O the full hour to miraculously come back from V/LA and role claim, or whatever. I didn't see the need to quickhammer.
Oh well, moot now.
Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.
Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.
You mean the tell that RobZ reponded with "EXACTLY" to? I will note that I was parked on J all day - and you continued to vote for O, even though you said you'd prefer a J lynch to O, and they were at the same # of votes.
If it was a huge tell, why am I only drawing your suspicion now?
Volt come tell us which way to go
With this lynch, of dear 'ol O.
Scumbag mod is not online to give us the flip... >.>
1) Robz is my biggest town read right now, and he's parked on O.Not Tables?
Request for PR's: Protect someone other than me, cause I'm mostly done with this game.Aww...
What shot??? What on earth are you talking about?
What shot??? What on earth are you talking about?
Woodcutter == vig (I think)
O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?
Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy
I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.
A problem with O is there is no easy way to search all his posts....
Also, Pops is totally acquitted, right? Cuz O went after him the hardest.
In honor of Galzria's memory, we should sheep his reads today. But not his read of me, I am confident he would have changed that if he knew I was town.
In sheeping, we bring woolly honor to our ancestors.
And Grujah's too. There's plenty of info to analyze. (I will be all over it much later tonight. I have work and meetings and things like that).I am less convinced of Grujah's prowess. Though perhaps since Grujah read me better I should be more convinced instead.
what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.
preview edit: I hope by "ballzy" you mean "dumb way to get yourself vigged as town".
what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.
Exactly. And as I read back through, O does lots of putting Frisk at the top of his suspicions, and a lot of quarreling with him... but not substantive quarreling. More like bickering. With you, it was bickering but he did actually vote for you and campaign for you. Frisk does occupy a much scummier spot.
O also defended Jo big time, all the time. This has to be weighed, because Jo was close-ish to lynch a couple times. If Jo was not mafia, would O care to defend him? The answer might be yes, but still.
Vote Captain Frisk
He's also one of my weaker townreads. PoE.
I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).
Vote: Captain Frisk
Grujah (1): popsofctown
O (7): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Galzria (2): jotheonah, Dsell
popsofctown (2): O, Captain_Frisk[/color]
Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead. In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill. The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.But if mafia targeted me or Tables, they run the risk of wasting a NK, as the protective roles had been advised several times to protect (one of) us.
Regarding O's defense of Joth. It does seem strange. I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't. I'm tending toward the latter.
PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.
Also, Frisk's most recent post confirms the above if O flips Mafia.
Left to hammer:
SFS
Jo
Dsell
Pops
C.F.
For the record, if you believe the Mafia won't bus, then there are two Mafia in that list. Cross examined with the list of wagon voters, and you get:
C.F. - Jo - Pops
Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.
If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.
And yes Robz, I see that this list is the same as yours, viewed from a different angle. If it's accurate, I stand by the fact that it's serious OMGUS play by the Mafia team this game.
Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead. In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill. The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.
Regarding O's defense of Joth. It does seem strange. I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't. I'm tending toward the latter.
PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.
Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria
Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead. In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill. The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.
Regarding O's defense of Joth. It does seem strange. I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't. I'm tending toward the latter.
PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.
NO WAY the mafia targets Galzria with me having explicitly stated I was going after him today and Robz having strongly implied it. He was lynch target #1. Lots of chaos and noise, very good for the mafia. If Galz was the scum target, I'll eat my hat.
I tend to suspect pops / jo / DSell / me... in that order - but I now after watching O flip mafia, I'm rethinking DSell as a lurker.
Pre post edit: 20 replies!!!!
Pre post edit: Can't suspect DSell on account of OMGUS.
Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.
...Pops was voting on a confirmed innocent man (scummy)
J and DSell were voting on a confirmed innocent man, but together.
So if I've read correctly, Robz is reviewing O posts, Tables and Jo are reviewing general stuff, and Dsell is reviewing Frisk.
@Robz and Tables (who are my strongest town reads right now): I need some guidance. My gut tells me to go back and review Galz's posts. Is this likely to yield actionable information? Should I concentrate on something else?
Let's remember that once O had six votes, there was not that much incentive for his partner(s) not to hammer. O wasn't gonna live, and a bus would be very helpful to clearing them. I think that's a weak reason to suspect someone.
Also, can someone explain how OMGUS relates? I know what it means but I'm not sure how it fits in context.
Also, O did not go after Pops quite as aggressively as a I had remembered. Hmm.
I noticed this:
O (4): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria
So, all these people definitely not mafia, except Glooble. But yeah, Glooble supplies a crucial vote for O here, where O goes from possibly lynch to probably lynch. SO this reflects very well on Glooble. As does other stuff.
Agree or disagree?: The night's events should elevate Robz to obvtown. (Stopping the Grujah wagon, fingering O)
At the very least, he pointed out the scumslip that arguably got the wagon rolling.Jo, did you record that post #?
At the very least, he pointed out the scumslip that arguably got the wagon rolling.Jo, did you record that post #?
Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead. In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill. The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.
...
There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.
Bullcrap. I made the point that survivalist tell isn't scumtell.
What analysis have you made?
Also I've been in Hawaii for a week. Still posted a bunch but I really hate Ipads and won't post anything long on them.
Vote:Tables for lurking, then redirection for bad reasons.
I quoted the immediately preceding post (unless I get ninja'ed).
I demand stickers.
O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not. For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.
Vote: O
It's a pretty ugly omgus too.
...Pops was voting on a confirmed innocent man (scummy)
J and DSell were voting on a confirmed innocent man, but together.
This feels like hindsight, as the confirmeds were not yet confirmed at the time. Is this the standard way to sum up "this is what we know NOW" on the morning of a new day? 'Cause I've already wasted time on questioning some other specific phraseology that I seemed to read too much into, and I don't want to do it again. But this seems like it could be deflection, and Frisk IS under somewhat elevated suspicion today.
Solo challenge: find a f.ds thread that would not be improved by yo momma jokes.Vote: Yo Momma
Have to go for a while.
Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.
If Galzria were the Mafia Godfather, would he flip town when killed?
Let's remember that once O had six votes, there was not that much incentive for his partner(s) not to hammer. O wasn't gonna live, and a bus would be very helpful to clearing them. I think that's a weak reason to suspect someone.Jo - is this some sort of disguised semi-accusation at me? Cause I hammered O.
Vote Count 2-13
Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, Galzria
popsofctown (2): jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch Deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
Have to go for a while.
Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.
Joth said he was willing to vote for O, and never actually did, just kept talking about how Galz lynch was better. Sounds very hedgy and thus suspicious.
bleh. It's WIFOM. So much WIFOM. I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells. And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free
bleh. It's WIFOM. So much WIFOM. I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells. And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' freeIt's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free
You'll get money and you'll like it!bleh. It's WIFOM. So much WIFOM. I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells. And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' freeIt's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free
bleh. It's WIFOM. So much WIFOM. I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells. And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' freeIt's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free
Solo challenge: find a f.ds thread that would not be improved by yo momma jokes.Vote: Yo Momma
what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.
O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?
Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy
I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.
I'm actually more curious about O's lack of mentioning this than suspicion on Theorel himself. What do you think about Theorel at the moment O?
Erm... I think he's a dead townie.
And CF, I'm not giving SFS a FOS for dogmatically following you. I'm giving him a FOBTS (finger of bad townie suspicion). SFS is obvtown (for now at least, there are no obvtowns in lylo except for confirmed towns by a role claimed cop with 1 mafia left, or similar If-he's-lying-then-he's-the-only-mafia situations).
I find Pops change in vote/behavior interesting, as well as Axxles inane question (gee.. really.. I wonder what *everybody* thinks of a dead townie..)
Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.
In the interest of seeing where this goes:
This feels like the 5th or 6th time I've seen this (it might only be the second, but its certainly at least the second).
There's nothing inherently wrong with the statement as long as you also recognize that voting makes the statement "I am happy with player _X_ getting lynched tonight".
but he called sfs obvtown. That makes it kinda hard to flip around on him.#885 and #1367 were separated by almost a week. SFS wasn't really obvtown anyway until is role reveal.
Look, if you were in the game during that time, you would have known SFS was obvtown. Unfortunately, you weren't Axxle2. You didn't replace in until day 2.
Don't show up late to our mafia game and tell us how to play
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats)
weeeeee are the champiooonnssss
Look, if you were in the game during that time, you would have known SFS was obvtown. Unfortunately, you weren't Axxle2. You didn't replace in until day 2.
Don't show up late to our mafia game and tell us how to play
Hmm, SFS, I like that list, but there's one big thing that jumps out at me: O's mentions of Joth are in big groups, while Frisk gets continual small mentions throughout. It would seem to me that the Frisk conversations are more genuine considering that, as you're more likely to have your scumbuddy in mind continually, and the person you want to buddy up to, you can talk about/to at discreet periods when the oppertunity arises.I'm tired too, and am going to bed, but mentioning Frisk/voting for him is very different from defending Jo, IMO. I probably should have added an editorial comment behind my summary of 1347. Although O says he FOS'd Frisk, I didn't find those (by that, I meaning not only did I not find a true FOS phrasing, I read his frequent invocation of Frisk as just, well, mentioning him). Non-committal words like "annoy" etc. Does this mean that Frisk is off the hook in my book? No, because something about him smells just a bit. Can't quite put my finger on it.
This isn't to say I'm convined either way. But I'm tired now and can't think straight so, eh.
I will lol if they both are mafia.
Additionally, would the Serial Killer want to kill Galzria? It was pretty clear that the town was going to seriously consider lynching him today. I think the SK would want to kill somebody whose pretty much acquitted, and leave the town to deal with Galz.
You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.emphasis mine
We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.
So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.
Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.
It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.
You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.
We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.
So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.
Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.
It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.
I'm sitting pretty confident that Robz888 is a witch. I suggest we burn him, or go back to scum hunting and hope the mafia target him tonight.
SK hunting is stupid until you've at least reduced the mafia to one person. I've played SK only once. D3 one of the more experienced players on the forum pointed out that my play seemed very consistent with SK behavior. I had shot 1 scum so far. They used their lynch on me instead of mafia. Scum won.
It doesn't make sense to go for an SK early because the SK tends to shoot for scum. We're still sufficiently behind that that's how the SK is going to shoot.
If you want Robz to be your number one SK pick, that's fine, but wait until later. There may not even be an SK, the most likely explanation for the death pattern is 2 one-shot vigs, and I don't know why people think having two of the same role isn't allowed or something.
in other news,
The WIFOM in the relational scumhunting is driving me crazy. It's not my forte.
Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.I suppose that's fair, it's certainly clever. Let me change the question. Were you really undecided in 371?
Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.
Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.
Lynching mafia today will not stop us from losingtwo towna townie and a mafia in the night. Lynching SK will.
So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia. 3 of us false lynched Axxle1.
RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.
J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.
I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.
DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.
Does that summarize our likely suspects?
Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.
Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.
Wut?
Uh, it's Jo or Frisk. Maybe Dsell. Not Pops. He went after O too hard.
Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.
Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.
Jo - Bad SK logic, double bad voting
Pops - Double bad voting - intentionally unhelpful
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
Glooble - Dislike his auto wagon voting approach, but have a really hard time believing that twinclaim was a mafia gambit.
Me
If I couldn't read my own role PM - i'd put myself up with Jo and Pops.
Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?
Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?
Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?
He didn't make one. He's also anchoring (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) the discussion by choosing who's on the list. He could have just as easily said "rank everyone" - and then looked at the 4 or 5 he's interested in.
To be fair - the people he's kept off the list make sense:
DSell - the original question was directed @ DSell - his ranking is implied.
RobZ - RobZ knows his own alignment - doesn't care whether or not DSell thinks he's scummy
Tables & SFS - if you don't know why they are down here you need to read old posts.
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
@Dsell I'm much more helpful in smaller towns. Also, the O lynch ... I finally feel like I'm standing on some kind of solid ground.
@Robz The assignment is ... list everybody I suspect and why?
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
You've said this soooo many times now so I'll say this once more. I WAS ON VACATION FOR MOST OF DAY 2. NOT LURKING, ON VACATION.
I realize that this can lead to there not being that much info on me but there's not much I can do. I've been really active when I've been here and I've contributed a lot, particularly day 1 and now 3.
Hey man - I didn't put you over Pops and Jo - all I'm saying is that I don't have a read on you. I didn't even accuse you of lurking in this post.
But I don't think Glooble is around right now, and I don't think I am likely to get an answer from Pops. I don't need lists from Tables or SFS, no.
Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.
Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.
To be clear - I am scummy not because of my own actions - but those of another player?
vote: Captain FriskVery Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.
To be clear - I am scummy not because of my own actions - but those of another player?
vote: Captain Frisk
vote: Captain Frisk
I guess we know who's at the top of your list.
driving the bus on your own teammate when there were easy town targets out there (jo, Galz) makes no damn sense,
Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him? ???
vote: Captain Frisk
I guess we know who's at the top of your list.
Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him? ???
while everyone is criticizing my relationship with O, I haven't seen anything that really convinced me that I could be scum - other than the fact that I've mis-voted once, and declined to vote for O.
vote: Captain Frisk
I guess we know who's at the top of your list.
Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him? ???
I put the reason for my vote right before my vote.
It's like talking to a wall with you people.
Except the people you dodge questions from perhaps? Is that more like talking to school children?vote: Captain Frisk
I guess we know who's at the top of your list.
Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him? ???
I put the reason for my vote right before my vote.
It's like talking to a wall with you people.
Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.
Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant. Sort of.)
3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.
[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]
3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.
[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]
But like you said in 919, "you can't argue with results".
Let's tread carefully.
The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.
Excellent non-answer, especially given the lack of antecedents. Please, kind sir, give me post #'s for the red "posted", the purple "that post" and the maroon "your post" you reference. (Hopefully, they are all the same post, and I've not troubled you unduly.)Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions. I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant. Sort of.)
I've already posted my analysis of that post and why it gave me a townread, and I did so day 1.
During those 56 seconds or whatever it was, I reread your post and realized the correct interpretation. I'm a fast reader I guess. I can read a paragraph in a few seconds. It's amazing. You'd think there'd be competitions for this.
@DSell - I had O in my "maybe willing to lynch" bucket during the list creation - not quite the "willing to lynch" you are trying to pin on me.
The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.
J - please don't put me in the same sentence with you. I see you either trying to get me in trouble when you flip Mafia - or clear yourself when I flip town.
Vote Count 2-3
jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O
Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
Robz, just two things to be careful of. Firstly, we may well only have two mafia members, so their might only be one more partner, not two. Secondly, you jump to very strong conclusions (stating things as impossible) based on information provided to us by the mafia (indirectly, but still). Even excluding that, you seem to overlook potential WIFOM plays which I fully expect O would be happy to perform, making 'obviously' bad plays for his teammates in order to clear them and the like. In short, I think you've laid out a good case for probabilities, but not certainties, and stating them that way makes me less comfortable with the arguments.
Dsell, yeah, that's true. Fair points. I just don't see O laying a vote on Frisk at that time when we are just getting started on Day 2, and looking for bandwagons.
Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.
But of course this is what mafia would say too. Seriously though, re-examine some of your steps, asking yourself how the mafia would want to make those situations look, because your logic is shaky. You have to take into consideration the mafia giving themselves insurance.
Holy Probable Outcome, Batman! We almost killed the person I voted to kill! The horror!
Maybe I am overly sarcastic this morning, but this town is driving me up the wall. Let's lynch Grujah and get it over with. We can play the "which mafia are on that wagon?" game tomorrow.
I regret getting my hands dirty in the Galz-O debacle only because it's another freaking distraction for the most distractable town in the history of mafia and it's not a conversation that needs to be happening before we've seen a flip.
You know, if I am wrong about there being 3 mafia, my whole analysis is out the window. I was assuming 3 mafia even if there was a Serial Killer. DO we think there could only be 2 mafia? That does change my analysis. It knocks Jo back into contention, for one thing.
I tend to assume 3 mafia as well - given that we had more players than M3, and that game had a Mafia PR + 2 Goons + a SK.
@DSell - Agreed - 2 Mafia + No SK would be really brutal - unless the rest of town was full of vigs, which would be quite funny - but closer to bastard mod.
I think it's really tough know, which is a frustration with the closed set-up. I think the only things we can rule out (and still not 100% ruled out) are 4 mafia+SK and 2 mafia+no SK.
Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.
The discussion is a distraction that you started with what I considered to bad reasoning - so I called it out.
However - agreed with everyone that we should be hunting mafia - not SK - at least until at least 1 more mafia goes down. We do have confirmed mafia in the game (there is at least 1 remaining), and we don't even know if there is SK.
-- back on target --
So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia. 3 of us false lynched Axxle1.
RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.
J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.
I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.
DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.
Does that summarize our likely suspects?
What are you referring to here? When did we go after Tables?
Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria
Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?
Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah? Table's magic list said so? He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him?
Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?
Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".
If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.
"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.
I am online - but I will not be hammering O. I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of
Jo
GalzriaO
GloobleCaptain_Frisk
Pops
I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here. He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon?
I'm removing myself because I know I'm not mafia. That leaves me with Jo, Galz, Glooble, Pops.
As I've stated before, I prefer J to Glooble, and Pops to Galz. J for legit suspicions reasons, and Pops over Galz for personality - since I don't really have a strong read for one or the other. I am willing to let the twinclaim thing ride for a bit, hence my vote for pops, but I lynch J or Galz if need be.
If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.
"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.
I've been reading history - it looks like the best "zing" against O was that he had "forgotten" that SFS had cleared Tables.
What other parts of this case do you find compelling?
Note: you didn't vote for him either!
Final note: I hate to be the one leading this charge, because it probably looks very "anybody but me" but I hope the quotes I've provided will convince you that this is evidence-based scumhunting. If it helps, imagine Tables said it.
The next two highest are Joth and O. Joth isn't a candidate of Pops (who gave a good reason for not wanting to lynch Joth (today) and Glooble (who is of course the twinclaim). O isn't a candidate of Galz or SFS, neither of whom have given good reasons for not putting him on (hardly surprising, as he hasn't been the focus of discussion for good chunks of two days...). This makes me somewhat uncomfortable - Galz isn't one of my scumreads and neither is SFS, so by my own logic this would likely make the mafia be trying to egg an O lynch on.
Was anyone honestly truly confident on the O lynch? I felt like if I was voting - it would have been "well - I have nothing better - so here it goes!". That just feels scummy to me -> hence my unwillingness to lynch.
It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon.
--snip--
The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.
Have you played with O before? Do you remember what he did to me day 1? Imho o plays an intentionally shady game. I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town. I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.
Have you played with O before? Do you remember what he did to me day 1? Imho o plays an intentionally shady game. I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town. I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.
I totally understand, and if you'd go back to the end of D2 and read, you'd see that I was hesitant to lynch based on playstyle too. But if you were unwilling to lynch him-even based on playstyle-I believe you should not put him in a "maybe willing to lynch" category.
I am online - but I will not be hammering O. I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of
Jo
GalzriaO
GloobleCaptain_Frisk
Pops
I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here. He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon?
...
(emphasis mine)Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.
I did make a list (was the last, or 2nd to last prior to Dsell?). I had O squarely in the middle - because I viewed his playstyle as intentionally semi scummy... the type of thing he can play every game and be considered crazy enough to let live, but not scummy enough to lynch. I'm not the only one who felt O was tough to read.
I didn't want to lynch because I felt like the decision to lynch him was time pressure based and potentially being steered by Scum - who were just picking a viable candidate after seeing everyone's votes. If he flipped town - I wanted the maximum information from people who voted for him... and me being on there removed information for me. If he flipped mafia - great!
Of course - I didn't consider that I'd be sitting in a pool of 4 people who look really scummy right now.
PPE - 7 more replies!
@Dsell - I think i've answered my no O vote. As for lurking - you aren't now - that is true (although 20 replies came in while I was looking up the voting history). It is true however, that you were an infrequent poster in past days.
It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.
The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.
It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.
The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.
If one of us joins this wagon, it's pretty likely it'll go straight through fairly quickly. I'd rather that not happen, and I'm not at a point where I'm happy to vote and say 'I would most like this person lynched'. We're onto day 3 now, so there's very little need to vote people as pressure, talking and evidence is more than enough. However... this slightly feels like a coax into getting one of us to vote prematurely. I can see why you'd want one of us to vote, but there's, what, two or three more scum out there? You could hit deadline with nothing but townies and potentially still not need one of us on the wagon. Even then, SFS was the hammer last time, and if a case looks convincing, it looks convincing and I'll probably join. For now, I'm not convinced.
[quotes]
Where did I ever ask you to vote? Just the opposite, I wouldn't even consider it until you've posted more because you hadn't in a while and a fair amount had happened with Frisk. A single vote pushes him to L-1, and I am not interested in that yet, especially when there's still people we haven't heard much from. Indeed, I'm doing just what you suggested by trying to get information by asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies, rather than parking a vote there. Or were you talking about someone else besides me?
...
Tables - really doesn't post alot. Saved our bacon with driving Pop's list through. If he turns out to be scum @ the end - I will buy him a beer if I'm ever in the same city as him....
I see a lot of flailing from CF. And Joth seems a little too pushy. I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.
*non-cf votersI see a lot of flailing from CF. And Joth seems a little too pushy. I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.
So a quick look at the remaining contestants:
--snip--
Voting for Jonah:
SFS - Trustworthy town - even if I don't necessarily trust his reads. His digging into Jonah was interesting.
--snip--
I'd really like to here more from Pops - where are you buddy?
--snip--
There must be something in the genetic code of the jo/glooble family that compels them to be on every. single. bandwagon. out there. But I digress.
SFS, I'm confused by your vote. By putting C_F at L-1, you are clearly saying that you are ok with him being lynched, as anyone could come along at any time and hammer. That is correct. The concept of what happens at L-1 has been written about previously, and I've actually read the whole thread. I find it interesting that you ask this question, given my additional post about knowing I am putting him at L-1. But you don't sound altogether convinced that he's mafia. I'm not convinced anyone is or isn't mafia (except me, cause I know I'm town), but I'm definitely more than ok with Frisk being lynched, based on the totality of what's been posted. As I also stated in my vote post, we will now get to see who does or doesn't hammer, or jump off. You apparently won't hammer. That is information. Or did you just not repeat the whole case against him? Are you trying to prove a point about jo being mafia and apparently unlynchable? I'm not trying to prove any point. If I was trying to prove a point, I would have responded to you with "Unless you can establish the need to know, I'll not be responding, so as to not educate anybody while playing mafia". I'm collecting data. On the subject of Jo, suffice it to say I think I've collected enough data from the group to know that Jo is unlynchable for some unfathomable reason. (Nicely played Jo!).
I want to hear from pops. He is *still* one of our most experienced players and maybe he just likes to hold back until we're closer to the end-game, I don't know. Or he's justO being OPops being Pops. As I've stated before, it's obviously not a team game. Or if it is, there is no penalty for not playing as part of a team.
Analyzing this bandwagon on C_F has been exceedingly vexing and filled with WIFOM for me. First of all, we don't know how many mafia there are, so he may be the only one left, and the town has just found him out. If he's town, I could see the mafia having joined this bandwagon already (or piggybacking on Galz to "start" it today) or staying off altogether and letting the town blow up. If he's mafia and has partners, well it's getting to a stage where it's awfully risk/reward to bus their partners, but I tend to think they would. It's not impossible to me that they could even lead the charge against their partner to win major town points in the end game. So, to some extent, it feels like it's going to be hard to learn anything until we get actual information from the flip and night roles. There's just so many possibilities in the last paragraph and probably even more I haven't thought of. And there are so many ways to read you bringing all the possibilities up. Everyone is in "oh I don't know, there's this, there's that, I'm vexed, hedge hedge, wonder wonder, discuss, rethink, move over to this possibility, rinse and repeat" mode. The preponderance of the evidence that speaks to me points to Jo, then Frisk. This is a game of incomplete information, so let's get some more. I moved my vote, let's see what happens now.
We need to hear from Glooble. He has been mostly absent from day 3, in fact the only thing I actually remember him saying made red flags go up for me. He's been a little cleared through some of his actions but he's been a total lurker today, even if he has had a crazy schedule for part of the time. The twinclaim is really the most notable thing from him this whole game, and it impacted the town by buying more time for jo (not sure yet if that's a good or a bad thing) but his confidence on jo being town and then O being mafia irk me. Let me parse this last sentence to confirm. If I understand you correctly, you're irked that Glooble was confidently correct about O (if you are town, why would that irk you?), but also irked that he is confident that Jo is town (if you are town, why would that irk you? You will, of course, say that as town it irks you because you think Jo is mafia, and you can prove it with your voting. You camped your vote on Jo most of day 1 (more on that in the next post) and voted for Jo early on Day2 as well, but haven't voted for him on Day3 despite my analysis of O's posts at #2343, which I think make the case even stronger.)
Obviously I'm not hammering C_F tonight. I think that is the likely/inevitable end to this day and I kind of expect it to be the right decision, but there is information still to be had and there's some more time in the day. No need for a quick lynch. Is it a likely end, or is it an inevitable end? 'Cause if it's inevitable, this sounds like hedging, and not casting a vote on someone that is inevitably going down is a nice place for a mafia to be if you want to keep your hands clean. Here's a question: If you believe that it Frisk is the right lynch decision, is it more right or less right than lynching Jo right now?
This kid gets it.I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.
SFS is town because he made a post, deleted it, but ultimately did actually make the post in which he declared he would use humor.
Whenever I debate whether to make a post or delete it as mafia, the longer I deliberate, the less likely I am to approve the message to wander dangerously out to sea.
He was also transparent about this process, but not in an apologetic defensive way. scumSwitched would not mention his uncertainty in whether or not to post a declaration he would use humor, he'd more likely keep it to himself because it makes him seem like mafia afraid of looking bad.
He's at that absolutely new phase where I'm going to put it past him to fake something like confessing to posting anxiety. He's my strongest town read in the game thus far.
-- snip--emphais mine
Still - I know for a fact that dsell, pops and Jonah are more likely to be mafia than I am. It's the only verifiable piece of info I have.
Axxle, j, pops: barring the 3 mafia remaining solution, at least one of you guys are going to look scummy tomorrow if you proceed with this lynch. Be better prepared than I was.
SFS really is a funny guy.Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?
Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.
SFS really is a funny guy.Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?
Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.
I'm still ok with Frisk going down, but I'd like to give him a chance to explain the "it's the only verifiable piece of info I have".
What say, Frisk? Also, why the advice to your suspects ("be better prepared than I was").
-- snip--I'm telling you, he's scared of me. 8)
Oh - and hi pops. You pop in to quote something and thats it?
Well, lots of people not around. And I'mma disappear for a while. In the meantime, Vote: AxxleNo prob. You're safe, no worries.
I'm gonna level with you guys.
I haven't caught up on the thread yet.
Vote Captain Frisk
He's also one of my weaker townreads. PoE.
I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).
Vote: Captain Frisk
Vote Count 2-3
jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O
Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT
Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.I'll vote for him for no other reason* than as a policy lynch that should have happened decades ago.
To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?
--snip--It's not amazing, it's easily explainable. People only talk about how crazy, weird, bad-town-player he is and then don't vote for him.
Joth is just, it's mad, his brinksmanship of being constantly almost killed is amazing.
He's said he's been playing more like O or TINAS (a player from Mafia I) this game. Those two players have been rather successful because of/despite their playstyle, and shared a town win in Mafia I. I believe that jo, as mafia, thought he could play the carefree part well and hoped he could convince the town not to vote for him. By getting people to believe he's VT, he can skate through the game under the radar: trusted by the town and not worth a night kill from the mafia. I don't want this to be a successful tactic. It's too dangerous, too good if it works.
I am glad that Frisk is NOT at L-1. I don't support lynching him, probably. This is unfortunate, because there is a volume of evidence against him:
-- Galzria, who we know is innocent, told us to go get Frisk.
-- Frisk did not vote for O. He did vote for Axxle1, and wanted to lynch Grujah.
-- In general, I think the arguments he has made today, while mostly valid, carry the tone of scum.
--snip--
Also, I haven't seen Frisk really bring this up in order to defend himself. If O voting for him was a ploy, wouldn't he be reminding us of it all the time now? He's not, I'm doing that.
--snip--
But anyway, I think I'm closer to voting Jo or Dsell, than I am to voting Frisk or Axxle. Do my reasons make sense?
Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.
To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?
I guess most this was directed at pops, who has cleared jo primarily based on my input. If I defend jo I want it to be based on solid reasons I can draw from evidence presented within the game, not my gut feelings or any kind of nepotism.
I'm pretty sure if I review jo's behavior based as much as possible on logic rather than intuition, I'm still going to find what I think is a rather weak case against him. If nothing else, the "jo and O wouldn't both play crazy" is a really strong point in jo's favor. But I also consider the CF case weak at this point. So that leaves DSell. SO far, the strongest argument against him seems to be a PoE analysis posted by someone who might very well be a serial killer.
None of these seem like good options to me. I could conceivably be convinced of any of them, but I can't believe there isn't a better lynch candidate.
Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
He is very much on the table.
Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
He is very much on the table.
Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.
I can't remember if I ever actual read page 100 and 99. I'm going to assume I did.Not much happened on 99 or 100, so if you didn't, it's probably ok.
Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
He is very much on the table.
Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.
Not particularly. But do I have a choice in the matter?
Except that he'll never get there.Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
He is very much on the table.
Jo's still off the table. Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.
He is very much on the table.
Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.
On stupid phone now - nO mega posts
Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:Emphasis mine
VOTE: DSELL
I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.
Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.
So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL
By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.
Well... I have to say Pop's reaction to Glooble's claim was less interesting than I'd hoped. I don't understand why he thinks Joth is now off the table, as well.
Having done some looking back, I'm thinking I might agree with Robz on DSell. I don't have much of a read on him, but then I'm not hugely suspicious of anyone, and some of the reasoning behind a DSell lynch makes sense. On the other hand, what do we really learn if he's town?
I have 3 pieces of information, and no analysis. Yes, I know what that means.Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:Emphasis mine
VOTE: DSELL
I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.
Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.
So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL
By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.
1) FWIW, the assertion above in boldface is false. Jo voted for himself in 1793, and unvoted 51 minutes later in 1803. At no time during any of this did O vote for Jo. In fact, O even posted, in 1810, the following (quoting in its entirety, italics added to separate from my prose in this post, underlined emphasis is mine, twice):
"Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.
I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic."
2) This pronouncement by O of Jo's town-ness is one I did not find researching my wall-o-text post at 2343, but as I said there, O defends Jo again two posts later, in 1812.
3) In researching for this post, I found another O stance on Jo that I failed to add to 2343. In 873, O says the following (quoting only O's original text, but in its entirety [he quoted Theorel, which I've omitted], italics again added for separation, and underline added as well):
"On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.
Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft"
I don't know what to make of Rob's inaccuracy (had to grope for a relatively neutral word), but it's pretty clear to me that O sure wanted everyone to know that he thought J was town, especially at a key moment - when Jo was still close to death.
SFS, are you saying that you think I'm magically-unlynchable scum or magically-unlynchable town?Unless you can establish why you need to know, no wait, that one's been used.
Or do you have no idea if I'm scum or town?
Plus, you know--we're doing okay here, guys. And it will be interesting to see how many kills happen in the night. And I'm still betting we have another power townie, and they get another night to do their power.
intentional mistake
If Jo were to flip town, I don't think that would be a good thing having killed him. I appreciate his analysis, and he is being helpful today.
I must push for the Dsell lynch.
SFS - after your information and analysis - what is your read on J?Re: Robz error - I don't know how to read it, that's why I said I don't know what to make of it. I really do think about stuff before I post, guys. That said, it is unsettling when combined with the other points I made regarding his case.
I'm still stuck @ WIFOM on that. Either O wanted to protect his scumbuddy - and J was just crazy gambitting or O wanted to make a townfriend - either are acceptable.
Do you read it as an intentional mistake from RobZ? - then he's pushing for DSell to lynch an innocent over J - when he could have just hammered me (unless he woke up too late?)
On DSell - I don't have any issues with it, but the case seems to be PoE - rather than specific scumtells - although I don't know what we really have better on anyone else. Deadline is Tuesday? I don't want to be too hasty - and DSell does get 1/2 of a point for not hammering me... The fact that Jonah is the only other person on the wagon makes me nervous.
@SFS/Tables: If we lynch DSell - and he flips town - where do we go next?
oh - @SFS I'm not ignoring your question from a page or two back - if you want me to answer I will - I just wanted to keep us on track here.
@pops - ditto to why I think you're suspicious for taking J off the table.
Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.intentional mistake
SFS, you can IIoA all you want since you're an Innocent Child this game, but that post was actually analysis.
--snip--
@SFS, all I can say is that dwell stands out to me the most, because I have strong cases for and against almost everyone else. Dsell has some minor bad points against him--he didn't vote O, O hardly ever acknowledged him--and nothing that exonerates him. Because Dsell is such a curious exception to the game right now, he is the best lynch.(emphasis mine)
Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.intentional mistake
Rhetorical question: what are you trying to communicate here.
Non-rhetorical question (2nd request): The one I posed to you Pops in my post #2503. And yes, I'm aware that I could quote it here, but I'll let you expend a little effort this time.
CF, I noticed you didn't claim at L-1 before. (Granted you weren't there very long). Any reason?
No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.
Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.
Everyone stop it.
This thread is now about Counting House.
Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him.
I don't hate you. I just enjoy jokes where I'm the only one laughing. And stuff. I'm sorry no one else gets a share of the delicious irony i find permeates our universe.I hear you, brotha. That's why I keep hitting the ball back.
Finished.
I'm going to start putting a lot of content together to summarize my impressions/ideas about who is scum as well as reasoning for my vote, but for now and since we have so little time, Vote: Galzria. In short, reading through these pages I at one point had completely bought into everything he was saying before realizing that he was still possible mafia. When I looked at what he said with that possibility in mind AND in light of some of the things he's said recently (ok I thought Robz was crazy at first too but I understood what he was meaning waaaay sooner than Galz did, and Galz was pretty rough on him about it), I actually feel VERY worried that he's mafia and exactly where he wants to be: front and center with a mix of people trusting and distrusting him.
I know it looks crazy that I'm getting on the bandwagon with the person I've campaigned hardest against, but jo is probably only my 3rd or 4th most-likely-to-be-mafia at this point.
I could support lynching O but I have some strong misgivings about it. He's been crazy and quite oddly defensive D2, but I don't believe he's ever been in serious hot water before in any game. I fear that lynching him, whether he flips mafia or town, will give us a lot of information about how O plays but not so much information we can use to make good lynches on future days. Obviously lynching mafia, if he is mafia, is worth it. But he's not at the top of my suspicions list and I still believe we have time to make a better choice.
Also, was O meaning that he was leaving immediately? Is he gone? Because that would be sucky to lynch someone while they're gone/a convenient excuse depending on how you look at it. But Axxle, if he's really gone I wouldn't be expecting a claim from him.
Like I said, more content to come.
@Pops -
Since I don't trust that your vote really reflects who you think is mafia (see pushing for O lynch while voting for Grujah) - would you care to chime in on the Captain Frisk vs. DSell debate?
And one more question -
You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O. I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care. Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?
And one more question -
You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O. I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care. Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?
I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>
I lost my cake and puked it too.
I forgot to vote him. I thought I was voting him.
Volt: Will there be an extension on account of forum outage?
And one more question -
You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O. I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care. Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?
I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>
I lost my cake and puked it too.
I forgot to vote him. I thought I was voting him.
Seriously pops, if any one of us made that excuse, would you buy it? You're a smart player. Voltgloss posts vote counts with some regularity. Your vote continued not to exist for some time. "I forgot" seems extremely suspect to me.
And one more question -
You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O. I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care. Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?
I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>
I lost my cake and puked it too.
I forgot to vote him. I thought I was voting him.
Seriously pops, if any one of us made that excuse, would you buy it? You're a smart player. Voltgloss posts vote counts with some regularity. Your vote continued not to exist for some time. "I forgot" seems extremely suspect to me.
Yes, I would buy it if it was plausible.
O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not. For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.
Vote: O
It's a pretty ugly omgus too.
I forgot to vote him. I thought I was voting him.
I'm confused. That quote is a supportive reason that I might mistake my current status of voting for O, because I did vote him at some point. But C_F hates me so somehow he means it in a negative way.
O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not. For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.
Vote: O
It's a pretty ugly omgus too.I forgot to vote him. I thought I was voting him.
So pops remembered voting O but forgot he had changed it in the meantime? That's a little more believable I guess.
And I was ninja'd by Axxle on my very first point.
And I was ninja'd by Axxle on my very first point.
Did it take you 25 minutes to write that defense?
Also, I had an interesting thought earlier. What if Tables is Mafia Chancellor? (Godfather)
You're being picky SFS. In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy. The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten. Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity. No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles. So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time. Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced. Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.
idk why I always expect people's defense posts to blow me away. They're usually super underwhelming like that one.
Also, I had an interesting thought earlier. What if Tables is Mafia Chancellor? (Godfather)
We talked about this a while back. In theory Tables could also be a investigation immune witch.
Crap - I'm quoting pops again:You're being picky SFS. In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy. The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten. Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity. No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles. So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time. Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced. Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.
I'm not sure about the SK immunity selection - but pops has played far more than I have. As for godfather - I'd find it more plausible if Tables had just simply bussed O... but he drove that bus. Sure, it's a great place to be - but it wasn't necessary. I don't think we would have lynched O without Tables.
As for Dsell's defense, it won't be swaying me--although it would have had to be amazing to change my mind at this point. I'm not sure how he really could defend himself, though, as the case against him is almost contingent on how non-obvscum he's been.
I really think we should lynch him. If he flips town we'll have to look at who he suspected more seriously next round. Which we probably would do anyway, since the people he suspects are mostly the people everybody suspects.
emphasis mine@Pops -
Since I don't trust that your vote really reflects who you think is mafia (see pushing for O lynch while voting for Grujah) - would you care to chime in on the Captain Frisk vs. DSell debate?
I haven't made up my mind. Robz seems to disagree with me about you. Dsell has been forgettable all game and I do wonder about the reason behind that. He's certainly not an exciting lynch.
My instincts still point to C_F, but it's not at all slamdunk. There's pros to lynching Dsell. He's the only player alive O really seemed to avoid (Dsell has cited interactions, but I forgot those interactions, and that may be because O and Dsell made them forgettable interactions, e.g. safe play). If Dsell flips town, O would seem to be the person who doesn't avoid interacting with scumpartners (a minority), and we could look into the porpoises behind his interactions, swimming in hyperactive ecstasy.
And I do have to put some stock in theorel saying Dsell is scum. I have a pretty null read on Dsell, so a confirmed teammate's opinion would take precedence over mine. Galzria thought C_F was scum, but Galzria also thought I was scum, so I don't think he was on top of this agme.
Dsell lynch is a good lynch but it's not my lynch. I guess that's why I didn't talk about it much before prompted. I do see myself voting on it today.
DSell - who do you consider to be the most likely suspects among the O voters and why?
I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going. A vote count would be useful.Vote: O (L-2)
O you might need to claim if you haven't already.
DSell - who do you consider to be the most likely suspects among the O voters and why?
Axxle. By a mile. And I'm baffled by Robz' defense of the fifth spot as "not a bus." But honestly there's only a few choices since several O voters are confirmed or mostly confirmed townies. I don't feel amazingly confident in any of them, though, hence my continued suspicion of two non-voters.
I got a weird feeling about this post:I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going. A vote count would be useful.Vote: O (L-2)
O you might need to claim if you haven't already.
And then his response to me saying that O may be gone seemed like he was sorry for his vote. It felt like he could have been setting up a scumbuddy for a roleclaim. But again, I'm putting a lot more faith in logic this game rather than my gut, so I do not think he should be a lynch target.
--snip--
...But sure, he could be an investigative immune SK, I suppose. If he is, SFS really screwed us! I may have screwed us by spending the one-shot, or by reporting the results at a bad time (or at all), but I specifically mentioned that inv. immune SK was one of the 3 possibilities.
--snip--
--snip--
...But sure, he could be an investigative immune SK, I suppose. If he is, SFS really screwed us! I may have screwed us by spending the one-shot, or by reporting the results at a bad time (or at all), but I specifically mentioned that inv. immune SK was one of the 3 possibilities.
--snip--
VOLTGLOSS - IS IT PERMISSIBLE FOR YOU, AS MOD, TO EDIT YOUR OWN POSTS? THERE SEEM TO BE TWO DIFFERENT VOTECOUNTS LABELED 2-13 (ONE AT POST 1745 AND ONE AT 1792). THERE ARE ALSO TWO DIFFERENT COUNTS LABELED 2-21 (ONE AT 2049 AND ONE AT 2091).
I recommend strongly against renumbering, but if there are no objections, perhaps the first occurrence of each could be labeled "A of B" and the second labeled "B of B"). I only bring it up because it has screwed me a couple of times researching vote counts.
I lost a longer phonepost.
Might is a scummy word when it is in a statement that should be absolute. Always l one claim always axxle knows he knows precious. vote axxle
Ok, the forum outage really screwed me. That was the time I was planning on looking over things.
I would be more likely to support an Axxle lynch than a DSell lynch at this point. If it comes down to the wire, we'll see.
Ok, the forum outage really screwed me. That was the time I was planning on looking over things.
I would be more likely to support an Axxle lynch than a DSell lynch at this point. If it comes down to the wire, we'll see.
What about C_F? I know you think jo is town but I think that C_F is the "duh" lynch here. Really the difference is the people who think C_F is town because he didn't hammer and those who don't think that fact clears or condemns him.
I don't support an Axxle lynch over jo or C_F.
Jo has been saying that he believes me to be town most of this game, and then all of a sudden he's on my bandwagon. For the thinnest of reasons. I think there is a strong chance that he's either mafia or SK, man he's scummy.
I am a Woodcutter (1-shot vigilante). I have not used my kill yet. Like I've mentioned in the past about the woodcutter, I believe it is much more useful late in the game when there is a good shot at actually hitting mafia. This is why I was quite confident about a serial killer. I am a woodcutter and I know that none of the NKs so far have been from me.
Also, why the heck didn't you Vig me? you've been FoSing/voting me all game, you've never indicated any level of confidence that I'm town, and if I am town you knew I wasn't a PR since day 1.
Also, why the heck didn't you Vig me? you've been FoSing/voting me all game, you've never indicated any level of confidence that I'm town, and if I am town you knew I wasn't a PR since day 1.
oh my god
my eyes are bleeding
such bad mafia play
dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that. Just stick with the softclaim. Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.
getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.
oh my god
my eyes are bleeding
such bad mafia play
dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that. Just stick with the softclaim. Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.
getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.
I believe DSell's claim. It fits with what I know about his play in other games (like Mafia III). He really doesn't seem to like to take action as town without being incredibly certain.
I'm obviously still wanting a CF lynch. Most of my time was taken up by MVI today, but I'll come back tonight with more moreness.
... more to read. I never said I have my priorities straight.I believe DSell's claim. It fits with what I know about his play in other games (like Mafia III). He really doesn't seem to like to take action as town without being incredibly certain.
I'm obviously still wanting a CF lynch. Most of my time was taken up by MVI today, but I'll come back tonight with more moreness.
Clearly MVI is significantly more important at this point - it being at Lylo and all.
Fine, I’ll just say it: I believe there is a Vigilante who killed Theorel. I also think I know who it is. I am picking up on some tells that possibly other people didn’t notice, but yeah. So that’s why I think it. If the person I have in my head is a Vigilante, the Theorel kill makes a lot of sense. I obviously don’t want to out the person, and I could be wrong. So anyway, that’s why I am so sure.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
I must admit it is only recently that I began to even consider Dsell. He was not an Axxle1 voter. Also--and this is important--I thought he was a Vigilante, off a hunch. It seemed to me he would have killed theorel, because they argued. But now I'm not sure we have anymore Vigs.
The major flaw to this idea is that all of the above could apply if it were a vig kill. I imagine both SK and vig want to hit mafia night 2. However, I think a vig kill is highly unlikely because we know for sure that we had 1 woodcutter, which suggests to me that we most likely do not have a full vig. If that's the case we either have a SK or different woodcutters used their 1-shots on the first two nights. That strikes me as unlikely because 1-shot vig is something that seems much more useful towards the endgame when the chances of hitting mafia are much stronger.
I've never been a vig or serial killer (I wouldn't post this if I was this game...) so I don't know exactly what the mindset is but it seems far more strategic to me to use the 1-shot later rather than sooner, when you have a stronger read and a better chance of hitting even at random. To me it seems worth the risk of getting NK'd.
I see no benefit for not claiming one of the kills was him if he saw what you posted.
oh my god
my eyes are bleeding
such bad mafia play
dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that. Just stick with the softclaim. Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.
getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.
DSell - In the future - as a town PR - you probably shouldn't claim if you don't need to. Once they unvoted, you should stick with the implied power role claim. <insert theory reason on why this is a sound strategy>.
So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.
B) If we decide to give Dsell one more night to use his power, who do we lynch today?
So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.this
Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.And in that case it's probably safe to lynch DSell.
Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.
There's no way our town had 3 one-shot vigs. That would be poor design: 5 people could die Night 1. If there is another one-shot vig out there, claim now.
So here is the talley on the DSell situation:
People who have voted:
RobZ
Jotheonah
SFS
Tables
People who have expressed willingness:
Pops
Axxle
Captain_Frisk
People who have not:
DSell
Other:
Glooble (hasn't said one way or the other - wants to kill his brother)
Is this right? Anyone have issues with this characterization?
Unvote again. I'm not at all sure about Dsell, honestly. He made good points, referencing earlier posts of his that support his claim. Counterclaim ain't happening and I DO believe this setup could have 2 Woodcutters and a Spy (or whatever SFS's 1-shot cop thing was). If Dsell is town, I'm right back to thinking Robz is SK, which would leave ... a Frisk/Axxle mafia?
People who have expressed willingness:I will not lynch DSell tonight.
Axxle
@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what.
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.
If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now. Otherwise your points are invalid.
I think this is an excellent point by Jo. Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this. I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what.
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.
You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.
Dangerous Vote: Axxle
Ah, I think I understand. Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO. I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO. Both are true, I think.If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now. Otherwise your points are invalid.
If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing. My bad.
It took me 2-5 seconds to realize the potential win/lose scenario. I also wanted to address your semi-accusation of me not playing to win. I sometimes too objectively put myself in other people's shoes (eg Axxle1 mentioned something about "If I flip town")I think this is an excellent point by Jo. Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this. I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what.
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.
You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.
Dangerous Vote: Axxle
Ah, I think I understand. Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO. I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO. Both are true, I think.If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now. Otherwise your points are invalid.
If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing. My bad.
That's like saying we can mislynch and lose. Best thing is to vote for two people. Lynch one, and vig the other.Ah, I think I understand. Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO. I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO. Both are true, I think.If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now. Otherwise your points are invalid.
If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing. My bad.
No - if dsell is a vig and lives, if he uses his power we can lose.
Ugh. Dsell's claim makes this really complicated.I think it would be balanced enough if the mafia had no power roles.
If we have a SK, and it's not Dsell, I would guess that it's Jo, or an investigative-immune Tables. Though they would probably say that it's me.
With 2 one-shot vigs, 1 innocent child, and 1 one-shot cop... could there be 3 mafia and SK? None of these are super powerful. I would think we would need to still have 1 true real cop,doctor, or jailkeeper if that were the case. Though we would hope the Cop knows something by now and would tell us (he should--his odds of surviving another night are super low), and we don't THINK there's been roleblocking (probably just a mafia kill and a SK kill each night--we have an SK at this point), so maybe a doctor?
If Dsell really is a one-shot vig, and we already had a one-shot vig, there's no way a separate vigilante could be responsible for the extra night kills on Night 1 and 2. So If Dsell is telling the truth--we MUST have a SK. This would mean Grujah probably didn't get to use his kill.
Unfortunately, if Dsell is not telling the truth, it might be because we have a SK.
We probably have a SK, guys.
All right - I was wrong: If DSell is mafia - we may not have a serial killer.
Ok - If we assume a scenario with 3 vigs is impossible:
Scenario 1: Tables is telling the truth - and we have 3 vigs. This is impossible per the assumption.
Scenario 2: Tables is telling the truth - and we have a different serial killer who is responsible for the death(s) of the additional night kill (s).
Scenario 3: Tables is lying and is Serial Killer - and is using the one shot vig for cover of a future kill. He made the extra night kill(s). A 2nd vig may have also assisted.
Scenario 4: Tables is lying and is mafia - and we have a serial killer responsible for the night kill(s).
Scenario 5: Tables is mafia - and we have a vig who is responsible for the extra night kill (s).
So - lets give everyone some time to come in and claim partial vig. If we agree that 3 vigs is extremely unlikely - then anyone claiming vig results in scenario 3, 4 or 5 - and a guaranteed lynch of scum.
I'll start us off:
I am not a vig.
If I were even a partial vig - I'd claim here, because even if that means I'll be night killed, trading 1:1 scum for town seems like it is in our interest, and I might have doctorly protection coming.
If no-one claims - then we have a serial killer - because the 5th scenario (DSell = mafia + Grujah Kill + Other Vig Kill) is off the table.
How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.
How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.
If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.
I don't think we have to go through this whole massclaim of who isn't vig. If we have another vig they should just say so, otherwise the end. For the record, I'm not vig, obviously.How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.
If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.
Well, things just got interesting. I'm inclined not to believe DSell's claim, but agree we should essentially agree two targets today and let the night help our decision. Reasonable/likely candidates are: Frisk, Axxle and Joth. Pops, Glooble and Robz aren't off the table, but I think they're less good targets personally. Although I suspect, for obvious reasons, if we have a SK it's likely Robz (hey, Robz predicted I'd say that! Does that mean I lose because of OMGUS? Speaking of which I can prove I'm not investigation immune - just have someone shoot me and when I survive you know I picked BP).
I'm still really not sure on Joth, Axxle and Frisk. Frisk I'm now reading more town on, and both Axxle and Joth I can still see as mafia. Especially if we're too believe DSell, which is the more likely mafia? I'm really sitting on the fence here. Is there some useful choices we can make, like 'if X is mafia, shoot Y, otherwise, shoot Z'?
Unvote
I don't think we have to go through this whole massclaim of who isn't vig. If we have another vig they should just say so, otherwise the end. For the record, I'm not vig, obviously.How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.
If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.
How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.
If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.
Well, no. We would execute Dsell or the other Vig claimant. One of them would be lying, not necessarily Dsell.
most of my day 1 play makes me cringe.(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻
I don't mind getting lynched/shot as long as we *do* keep DSell alive to take that shot. I second the proposal for CF to be lynched/shot alongside me.
Vote: AxxleSorry, what I meant here was basically "Lynch me, not DSell"I don't mind getting lynched/shot as long as we *do* keep DSell alive to take that shot. I second the proposal for CF to be lynched/shot alongside me.
The nightmare tonight scenario here is: 3 Town Kills. If Axxle2 is truly town - he's volunteering to guarantee 1 of them. That's offensive play - even worse than J self voting.
Axxle is suicidal?(http://fc08.deviantart.net/fs38/f/2008/365/b/8/Kyon_Render_by_runeliger.jpg)
I need a gif of kyon facepalming.
kinda have to lynch Axxle now. Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.
Joth doesn't know any better. Burden of ProficiencyIts a jpeg >:)
Thank you very much for the gif.
Dsell, Robz888, Pops, Glooble, Frisk
As long as that group contains no more than 2 scum (probably 1 mafia + plus SK) we are still okay-ish. And if Jo and Axxle were both scum misses, Dsell is probably a liar.
I didn't shoot Galz or Jo because I was not SURE they were mafia, and didn't want to ruin the one advantage I could give the town. Woodcutter has so much potential to hurt the town that it seems like a no-brainer to me to wait until the end game where both your reads are based on more information AND you simply have a better chance of hitting mafia by virtue of a smaller pool of options. In my opinion, it's better to have not used the shot than to use the shot on town. Even if they seemed extremely scummy to me (and I don't think I can say that about either jo or Galz, quite scummy, but not overwhelmingly so) I think it's always better to wait.
I really don't see how this is not completely obvious. Do you trust your reads so much that you would feel confident to use your single shot on night 1 or 2?
Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.
And I agree if we let DSell live, we need to assign him a target and lynch him if that person doesn't die. That way if DSell is mafia, the town controls the mafia's kill tonight.
CF seems the best choice to me, merely based on POE.
Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.
Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.
Pretty sure he meant "Why didn't Dsell kill jo?" is the big question, not "Why don't we kill jo?"
Given that that's consistent with his posting to date.
@Volt - do we really have till Thursday? You said it would be a 24 hour extension - but i thought the original deadline was Tuesday? You giving us a break for 4th of July?
Vote Count 3-9
[votecount snipped]
Lynch Deadline: Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT
NOTE: I just now realized I'd been saying "Tuesday, July 11" in previous votecounts - forgetting that Tuesday is July 10. My intent was always for the lynch deadline to be Wednesday, July 11. Extending the deadline due to the forum outage clears this up: the lynch deadline is definitely Thursday, July 12. Apologies for the confusion.
What about having Dsell shoot Robz? I'm still pretty convinced he's SK.
We were all pretty much agreed that the prime kills today were myself or CF, probably CF, when Robz came along and threw Dsell into the mix. Much like yesterday, when he halted the Grujah wagon and redirected to O. If we lynch Dsell, the lynch has Robz's fingerprints all over it. So IF Dsell is town, Robz seems like a great target to me.
Only the SK has a wincon that wants to hit scum one day and town the next.
If Dsell is scum, then we are maybe enticing him to kill a townie? But that's not so different than what he would have done if we hadn't forced him into a fakeclaim.
If we believe J's theory - there's no point in trying to shoot you - but rather we should lynch you instead. If we try to shoot you - we don't stop your kill.
How about:
Lynch J (policy lynch on self preservation)
Shoot Axxle (policy shot as per above)
Lynch you tomorrow for being SK if J isn't?
I'm beginning to think there are too many things here that can go wrong. In particular, has anyone suggested that the plan might not be a good idea (name two people, lynch one, shoot one)? If not, the mafia might know it's to their advantage, they can coax us away from shooting them and/or can prevent the kill. If that's the case, we're essentially being lead to a double-mislynch.
But at the same time... it's DSell himself who seems most unhappy with the plan. I find it hard to put these two pieces of information together. Unless... DSell is mafia, his buddy is happy to blend in, but DSell has realised they won't be able to legitimately make two kills. Which... still doesn't answer why his buddy is acting differently. Hmm. Any thoughts on this, particularly from Robz/SFS/Glooble?
since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills
the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.
dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?
"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.
since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills
This is not a fact. Grujah could have killed insomniac / theorel - and either collided with a mafia kill / sk kill OR there could have been random protection.
@RobZ
What % chance do you believe DSell is telling the truth?
If he is town, what is the value of his un-used kill vs. the uncertainty that having him alive causes - as I don't believe we can clear him short of an investigative roleclaim.
Asking myself these questions - I am starting to view lynching DSell as the "safe" play - and then look at everyone's interactions with DSell and his reads in that context on Day 4. If DSell is SK, we're down to 1 night kill. Even if he isn't, the worst that we're down to is 3 town - 2 mafia - 1 serial killer after the night.
The fact that DSell doesn't want to announce his kill target makes me slightly suspicious - but I can see both arguments.
The idea that I'm serial killer is pretty dumb. I would not have made that huge argument that pointed the FOS squarely at myself.
the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.
dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?
"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.
And then the less popular lynches...
tables lynch is fables lynch
robz lynch is sobs lynch
gloob lynch is noob lynch
It's also possible, though very unlikely, that grujah shot the serial killer and used up their one-shot bulletproof.
Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it. Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name. Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control.
If he doesn't want to do it he can die.
brisk lynch! That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.
---- so where does this leave us? ----
We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.
List time:
That leaves 6 of us:
The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk
The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle
Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell
Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.
Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod? If one could bus, then why not both? I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O. I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.
I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.
I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who. I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.
Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?
@RobZ Testy!
I have thought about suggesting myself for this, because I fully realize that I will eventually be lynched, unless we have already discovered the SK. Since I believe Jo is probably most likely to be the SK--and he is the one who keeps reminding everybody (along with Tables, ugh) that I am the top SK suspect--I would agree to this, I guess, on the condition that we lynch Jo. If Jo doesn't flip SK, Dsell can shoot me.
The problem here is two-fold. One is a theoretical problem that doesn't actually exist, because I'm actually town, but I'll point it out anyway: the SK is either investigative immune or one-shot immune. If it's me, and I'm one-shot immune, Dsell wouldn't be able to kill me. Again, I know this is not the case, but someone will probably bring it up. Of course, this is the problem no matter who we shoot.
The other problem is that if Jo flips town, great, I have agreed to be killed. I am also town, I die. And that's very possibly town loss right there.
ummmmmm did people see my post? because of all the possible reactions, one I definitely didn't see coming was it being completely ignored...Have you not been paying attention? You wont be discussed again until Day4. :)
Now THAT I can get solidly behind.@RobZ Testy!
Well yes, I am testy. I cannot be the mafia, it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise. I have admitted that I could be the Serial Killer, and I understand why my speeches have made people think I'm the SK. Emphatically, I cannot be the mafia.
New plan: Lynch Jo, shoot Frisk.
Oh RobZ - I can never stay mad at you - thanks for remining me about the Grujah derail. You'd think I'd remember because that was my wagon - and I jumped off it in large part due to your compelling analysis of how scummy the wagon looked. It really does seem like derailing an innocent lynch and then early wagoning a partner would be pretty poor mafia play... I will amend my previous statement to say that I don't really suspect RobZ of being mafia.
I reserve the right to think that you are scum.
@J: Just because it worked for O in M3 doesn't mean it works here.
Okay, here are all the people I wish were dead:
also, I object to letting Robz run the show.
a random number generator. Or, as pops suggested, group consensus.
If it has to be a person, I want tables.
I would prefer CF lynch and nightkill Axxle, but I understand the logic for jo, and if Tables condones it, I won't fight it. What I said earlier about my being wary of my own read on jo still stands. I'm just not sure I trust myself at this point.
...You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.
Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights....
...You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.
Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights....
Just two things. Firstly, it's not THAT likely a Doc/JK has made a save yet. But we don't know how many kill attempts there've been. It's probably something like a 30% chance they have, and that's assuming they're a full doctor. Secondly, there's only been one night since I SFS claim-cleared me. Slow game.
I think, personally, the best two candidates are Joth and Axxle. DSell was my main suspect (and still is) but assuming he's town, I think Joth/Axxle are the next two. So if I have to lead the charge, I say lynch Joth today and DSell has to shoot Axxle. But I'm far, far from convinced by it.
Is everybody else, other than Jo and Axxle presumably, okay with this? I think SFS is, I know he wants Jo dead. I'm not sure where Pops and Glooble stand.
Is everybody else, other than Jo and Axxle presumably, okay with this? I think SFS is, I know he wants Jo dead. I'm not sure where Pops and Glooble stand.
I don't have any plans that I view as more likely, so I'm ok with it. We already have J's roleclaim as well.
Green image says DSell is online.
I want pops to weigh in as well. It would be sort of nice to have one person remind you all that I'm town.
@Glooble. I'm by no means convinced the plan is good. And I'm going to spend tomorrow convincing you I'm not SK. But maybe we'll flip the SK by morning! Anyway, all aboard for the plan. Dsell, you good to shoot Axxle? Axxle, if you have a role, now is the time. Jo same, but he's already claimed VT.I'm not going to claim unless we have a clear town consensus. You trying to be the new leader is disconcerting.
in a hurry much Robz?
in a hurry much Robz?My wincon is Night 3 begins before 6:00 PM EDT.No hurry.
I'm just excited, that's all. This is a pretty suspenseful game.
Axxle halting premature roleclaims on himself after encouraging one from O is noted (if I recall right)
Jo should not be touched. His effing twin says he's town. Unless that twin flips scum, it's hand-off. I don't know how many times I have to say it.
Axxle / Frisk death would be delicious, they are my highest of suspects. We should probably have Axxle be the one that gets shot, he's a bit less in the SK psychological profile
Axxle halting premature roleclaims on himself after encouraging one from O is noted (if I recall right)I did encourage one from O, but I think we were close to the deadline at that point right?
Jo should not be touched. His effing twin says he's town. Unless that twin flips scum, it's hand-off. I don't know how many times I have to say it.
Axxle / Frisk death would be delicious, they are my highest of suspects. We should probably have Axxle be the one that gets shot, he's a bit less in the SK psychological profile
Your only reason for not killing J is because of the twinclaim? Should we kill Glooble to make sure?Also, I have a brother, not a twin, but pretty close. I would not put a huge amount of weight in being able to read him in a game I've had little experience with when he's had a substantial amount.
Minus whoever the two scumteams kill (if DSell is telling the truth) or whoevever the other scumteam kills (If DSell is scum), unless Axxle or J is the serial killer. So we'll have 5 - 7 people left, and worse case scenario 3 scum. Either way, we'll know one way or the other if DSell is scum.
Unless I get any serious objections and brings them to us quickly (before the hammer), I will be using my shot on Axxle tonight.
if we lynch Joth, and he's scum I'd rather shoot Glooble or pops more than anyone else.
Unless I get any serious objections and brings them to us quickly (before the hammer), I will be using my shot on Axxle tonight.if we lynch Joth, and he's scum I'd rather shoot Glooble or pops more than anyone else.
Of course, my opinion hardly matters. I'm VT FWIW.
Just so I'm clear, we are lynching Jo, and Dsell is shooting who exactly?
Also, when Dsell shoots X, if X doesnt die, what comes next? I need someone to spell both of these out for me, cause I'm ready for Jo to go, but I feel like my vote is also a vote for the plan in toto.
Why the heck are you guys lynching Jo?
This is dumb.
Yeah. I guess.
It's still dumb. If you really want to lynch a wundertwin, Glooble should be first
And the entirety of the Joth wagon will look scummier. I think Joth is both likely to be mafia and in the unlikely event he's not, will give us some nice information.*his Day2 wagon will look scummier
If Joth is town then CF is town because he had the option to hammer yesterday.
And the entirety of the Joth wagon will look scummier. I think Joth is both likely to be mafia and in the unlikely event he's not, will give us some nice information.
Vote Count 2-13A
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, Galzria
And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.
How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.
How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.
Coming from you, Robz...
How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.
How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
That's actually assuming too much. They never claimed identical twins.How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.
THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE
No wait, they did.That's actually assuming too much. They never claimed identical twins.How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.
70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.
THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE
I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.
kinda have to lynch Axxle now. Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.
And joth is scummy for self voting, because it's an intrinsically scummy behavior. It's just not the only thing on his scorecard, he comes out positive.
Do you know I'm not going to explain it because I already did when I condemned Axxle for the behavior? Because that should be the only basis for the prediction.
of course, you have to play to your current wincon in the good spirit of things
Axxle is suicidal?
I need a gif of kyon facepalming.
kinda have to lynch Axxle now. Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.
No.
You'll get nothing and like it.
Joth doesn't know any better. Burden of Proficiency
Thank you very much for the gif.
Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it. Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name. Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control.
If he doesn't want to do it he can die.
It's supposed to be a Fishing Village.
does anyone like my avatar? :(
Fishing Village is stronger than Farming Village though :/
Frisk, I'm (almost) always logged on, so the green light being lit doesn't mean I'm really here.I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.
Since you're here - will you answer mine?
Robz and Tables: Do both of you believe Axxle is a better choice to shoot than Frisk? If so, why?
3) Frisk, in 1796, asserted that he wanted to hammer Jo "on principal" [sic], but he was not willing to hammer by Iphone. (It seemed weird to sacrifice principle over the type of voting machinery, but whatever). Yet in 2814, Frisk expresses willingness to unvote by phone. Interestingly, the original inaction helped Jo. The action of unvoting (if taken) would help Jo. And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.
@SFS - I responded 2 minutes after your post - so it was reasonable to expect you to possibly still be here. My question on #2833 - which you still haven't answered is:
You've implied that I'm a better kill target than Axxle. I'd like to understand why.
And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.
I don't at all feel jumped on, so you're good. And many of the things I say "hit me wrong" could just be me reacting in the moment, which is why I've tried to slow down a bit since D1. Also, "thinly veiled" would have been a better adjective to precede "rolefishing".And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.
I love how even innocent remarks are mafia tells! I was trying to think of what circumstances I would unvote. J has already roleclaimed VT - so I think I'd lynch him no matter what he said. The only thing I could think of would be if someone had some night 2 investigation results.
As to your scumtells:
1. I'm not really sure how one rolefishes in a concealed manner. If someone knows that J is innocent - then I want to know so that I don't lynch him. If I'm mafia - then I don't want anyone to claim - so that he dies. I would reveal if I was a cop and had investigated J - that would potentially clear 4 of us (SFS, Tables, Me, J) - which gives us great odds on scum hunting and killing.
2. If I'm coaching (as mafia) who am I coaching to? Presumably I would only want my partner to falseclaim cop get Jonah off the hook. If I'm mafia - and my partner is Jonah - then well clearly that isn't going to work. If I'm mafia - and my partner is someone else - well then Jonah isn't mafia and we've successfully lynched town - so again I wouldn't be coaching my partner to copclaim.
Sorry to jump on you - I just don't understand your logic - and if you're going to push for a me execution over Axxle - i want to at least understand why.
I'm super confused right now.
I hate that I'm probably going to be at work before anyone else weighs in. Something just occurred to me, though. Mafia and SK might have targeted the same person, and been blocked by a town protective role.
@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?
Well, not totally scratch, but its less likely.
I just looked over the role PMs at the beginning of the thread, and it doesn't say anything about the roleblockers protecting their targets from night kills. It looks like they block their roles, and that's it. Volt, confirm?
@Axxle2 - Why did you vote for the Jo lynch - knowing that the plan would involve shooting yourself?Plenty of reasons. Mostly I knew that the loss of me was less of a burden to a town than the loss of someone else.
Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.
Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.
Snap! @Volt - can we get a confirmation?
Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.
Snap! @Volt - can we get a confirmation?
There are no roles in the game beyond those listed in the intro post. I don't know if people are using the term "jailkeeper" to colloquially (and imprecisely) mean "roleblocker." But I can confirm that there is no role in this game that both roleblocks AND protects its target (i.e., a "jailkeeper" as the term is properly used).
Having thought about it, I think it's time we confirmed the presence of a serial killer. I am not a woodcutter/militiaman.
It's possible we have another woodcutter, which could potentially eliminate the need for a SK. But first I think we need to check that.
We started, but it was a bit too early, which is why I didn't. I remember SFS, Pops and Axxle confirmed they weren't. Adding me and you and DSell gives us 6/8 without me even needing to look back.I'm about 80% sure that Robz started it.
For the record, now that Joth flipped town I'm pretty sure CF is town for reasons I've stated earlier (the lynch window he had in an earlier day)
@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.
@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.
Ok - so as long as a town roleblocker didn't block DSell and / or town doctor didn't protect Axxle, then it is confirmed that there is scum within that pair. Agreed?Most roles can't target themselves by default.
The only other scenarios I can think of are:
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot. This one is even worse because it involves town lying, and intentionally wasting DSell's shot.
- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot.
- Axxle is really adoctor/ roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot by targeting DSell.
Roles cannot self-target.
And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.
During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Each night phase, you individually may perform a roleblock on another player in the game. You cannot block and kill in the same night.
You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went. Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.
But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.
@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS. Do you want me to dig?Accusation?
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went. Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went. Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS. Do you want me to dig?Accusation?
I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.
Why'd you idiots lynch jo
Why'd you idiots lynch jo
I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.
I don't think this is fact:
3 semi plausible scenarios i can come up with:
1. DSell and Axxle are both mafia. One of them (the shooter) is random thwarted by town doctor protection (or roleblocking - although Axxle2 would be the likely target here). The other (roleblocker) roleblocks the serial killer.
2. Town roleblocker hits the serial killer. Axxle2 is the shooter. DSell is the town vig. Mafia roleblocker blocks DSell's vig.
3. DSell is mafia2, Axxle2 is serial killer. DSell (shooter) shoots Axxle2 -> bulletproof. Axxle2's kill is blocked by the town doctor. Mafia3 smiles and nods.
Here's the question: We just finished Mafia III - where there were 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 9 town. With more town, would you really expect to have less scum?
- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
emphasis mine- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went. Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS. Do you want me to dig?Accusation?
Sorry - i thought you were accusing me of being mafia for not being willing to hammer because it would point the finger at me per J's instructions.
As for missing shots, town roleblocker blocks SK, Mafia shoots bulletproof SK, or DSell is actually SK and was mafia roleblocked by accident. Also - both mafia and / or SK could no kill to cause additional confusion as to why Axxle didn't die.
No matter what though - its unlikely - and this is why I asked for agreement - it is overwhelmingly likely that there is scum in the set of {DSell, Axxle2}. RobZ suggests that we start with you. His argument matches what is scribbled in my notebook, but I'm trying to drum up some viable scenario in which you survive without being scum.
This is off somehow.
VOLTGLOSS - JUST SO WE ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR
True or false: Whenever there are two mafia remaining, and at least one is a roleblocker, then the roleblocker can exercise his power to roleblock on NightA, AND the OTHER mafia can still make the mafia kill on NightA.
Emphasis mine.- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.
Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?
I thought that's what made him town, as opposed to the opposite.Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?
Pops is rubbing off on Axxle.Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?
I thought that's what made him town, as opposed to the opposite.Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?
And has sort of an analog in "I forgot I didn't vote, I thought I voted".And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?
Unvote.
Vote: jtotheonah
When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.
I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.
But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.
DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
Scenarios:
DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion. Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor. Or mafia got roleblocked too.
DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.
You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?
DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
Doctor's can't double time.
You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?
@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?
Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill. So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference). The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.
If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives. Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.
Scenarios:
DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion. Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor. Or mafia got roleblocked too.
DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.
Just to be clear - in both of these situations the mafia roleblocked DSell (preventing the kill of a known town or Serial Killer) - in exchange for confusion - the best case of which results in lynching both you today.... when they could have let just you die outright?
This is what you are going with?
Did Axxle just get burned by the Mod?
Scenarios:So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.
DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion. Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor. Or mafia got roleblocked too.DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.
Scenarios:So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.
DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion. Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor. Or mafia got roleblocked too.DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.
That... they thought it'd be funny? Like a clown?Scenarios:So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.
DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion. Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor. Or mafia got roleblocked too.DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion. Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.
I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.
If DSell is the SK - I can think of a very plausible reason for the Mafia to roleblock him. They would almost have to! Would anyone like to hazard a guess?
Seriously. Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now? We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off workBecause I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?
Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.Who should we have lynched yesterday?
Seriously. Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now? We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work
Seriously. Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now? We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off workBecause I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.Who should we have lynched yesterday?
would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.Excluding a rolecop.
Meaning it's annoying, not scummy.would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.Excluding a rolecop.
I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact. You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK. You say you don't think there's a doctor. You say you don't think there's a rolecop. etc
would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.Excluding a rolecop.
I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact. You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK. You say you don't think there's a doctor. You say you don't think there's a rolecop. etc
Argh. Need to read that again.would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.Excluding a rolecop.
I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact. You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK. You say you don't think there's a doctor. You say you don't think there's a rolecop. etc
No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop. No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.
would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.Excluding a rolecop.
I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact. You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK. You say you don't think there's a doctor. You say you don't think there's a rolecop. etc
No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop. No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.
Oh - just to be clear - I didn't really think that Volt was burning Axxle. +1,000 to volt for being an outstanding mod.Seconded.
Vote: AxxleFrisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?
I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change. We need 5 out of 8. Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it.
At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.
Vote: AxxleFrisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?
I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change. We need 5 out of 8. Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it.
At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.
2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1. That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.Vote: AxxleFrisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?
I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change. We need 5 out of 8. Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it.
At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.
SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.
Err, night one.2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1. That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.Vote: AxxleFrisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?
I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change. We need 5 out of 8. Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it.
At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.
SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.
And even more likely with 2 vigs.Err, night one.2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1. That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.Vote: AxxleFrisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?
I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change. We need 5 out of 8. Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it.
At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.
SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.
No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.
Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?
This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?
No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.
That was a thread I avoided in order to retain my belief that this forum is saner than most others.This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?
No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.
First quiz question, did Donald say verbally announcing the score out loud is legal or illegal.
Occam's RazorIt is incredibly difficult to argue against that. And I put out my theories already. You'll just have to judge for yourselves.
I am just kinda convinced that Occam's Razor suggests we lynch Axxle today. Scum wouldn't roleblock Dsell. Town wouldn't protect Axxle. Axxle and Dsell being scum together is the only thing that makes sense to me.
I am going to go ahead and Vote: Axxle. I see no lynching anybody else. Really, we just have to know about him one way or the other (or the other other) at this point.Yep.
If we're wrong, and he's town, we go into the night with 7 people. We could lose two more townies. Worst case scenario, we have 5 people alive tomorrow, split the following way (worst case scenario): 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK. That's pretty bad; the SK still being alive is the only thing preventing a mafia victory, if my understanding is correct. So we would need to lynch a mafia, not the SK, to avoid losing.
Let's say we do lynch a mafia at that point. We go into that night with 2 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Then I think we still probably lose, unless the mafia and SK kill each other. If the mafia kills the Sk and the Sk kills a townie, the mafia win. If the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills a town, the Sk wins. If they kill both townies, I don't know who wins, but it sure ain't the town.
So actually, we're in for some pretty grim worst case scenarios if Axxle is none of the above. Gulp.
I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.
I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.
err...
I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.
err...
This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.
I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.
err...
This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.
--snip --I have said this elswhere too, but I think this is the most likely scenario to explain the lack of deaths. I don't see town blocking Dsell to save Axxle, and no spent one-shot roleblockers have come forward (Robz asked for that info in 2946, asserting that there is no reason not to bring forward that info). So to me, that really leaves only two possibilities:
And lots of other possibilities. In particular, how likely is it that both the SK and mafia decided not to kill today, while DSell did? I think a very plausible situation is:
DSell is blocked, the mafia hit the SK, the SK hits the doctor target. Which is... interesting, to say the least. Unlikely, too.
--snip--
--snip--
No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.
... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.
You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?
Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill. So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference). The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.
If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives. Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.
... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?
Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill. So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference). The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.
If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives. Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.
Again: no burn intended. :)
I'm mostly just confused :(That seems very unlike you.
I'm mostly just confused :(Should we lynch Axxle?
probablyI'm mostly just confused :(Should we lynch Axxle?
Have any plans to join us?probablyI'm mostly just confused :(Should we lynch Axxle?
Axxle hasn't claimed yet, that I can recall???
Did you claim VT? I can't remember whether I'm remembering 1 or 2 doing so :(Yeah, I claimed VT yesterday.
VOLTGLOSS - If Pops had a one-shot ability and died AFTER using his power, would he flip as vanilla (cause at that point he is) or would we know he was a "one-shot X" townie?
If assumption 1 is wrong - then mislynching is no big deal.
Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.
All this and the fact that the people we keep lynching instead of you makes me suspicious, but then I'm suspicious of everyone right now..
Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.
Who is more solidly town than Pops? I don't think anybody is, actually.
More solidly than me is interesting, personally, he was my second suspect to Axxle (and so would have been my main suspect today). But that's all in the past.
At this point, we need to consider even the former near-clears as potential mafia. For me, everyone except Glooble has given good reason for me to think they're not mafia: Robz based on his day 2 behavior, DSell based on the night kill pattern, SFS based on his claim, his posts, Pops clear, and the number of kills makes me think he was probably the one being protected by the doctor, Me because SFS said so and I trust him, and also because IIRC my Role PM said something about being town, Frisk because of his voting on day 2.
Of those, the weakest reasons are... Frisk and of course, Glooble. DSell is looking more likely to be Killer to me (Robz, rejoice!). So if I had to blanket guess the scum teams, those would be it - Frisk/Glooble/O as mafia, DSell as Killer.
Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?
Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?
In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night? Roleblock someone else? Why? Everyone else is harmless! Such bad logic!
@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?
Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?
In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night? Roleblock someone else? Why? Everyone else is harmless! Such bad logic!
@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?
I don't think it's necessarily bad logic. He keeps blocking the SK so the SK doesn't kill him, but he doesn't want to kill the SK, as we continue to mass lynch the town.
Okay, it's not the most likely option, perhaps, and it doesn't change anything. Dsell has got to be the SK. So we look at Glooble, Frisk, and SFS a little bit.
Another explanation is that last night they didn't block Dsell, they killed him, using up one of his shot protections. And he shot Pops.Except that the SK only gets bulletproof-ness once. See page 1, under Witch. If someone shot Dsell 2 nights in a row, he'd be dead now, cause we don't have a jailkeeper.
It's also possible that two nights ago, they both blocked and shot Dsell. So there were no deaths.
Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?
In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night? Roleblock someone else? Why? Everyone else is harmless! Such bad logic!
@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?
I don't think it's necessarily bad logic. He keeps blocking the SK so the SK doesn't kill him, but he doesn't want to kill the SK, as we continue to mass lynch the town.
Okay, it's not the most likely option, perhaps, and it doesn't change anything. Dsell has got to be the SK. So we look at Glooble, Frisk, and SFS a little bit.
Hold on - if he keeps blocking the SK - then who killed pops?
* I don't think the doctor would have protected Dsell, just like it's hard to believe that a doctor protected Axxle2 when Dsell supposedly shot him.
Ok, I realize this is dangerous, but I think it would be worse at this point to hold back information that would help the town.
I am a Town Bureaucrat (roleblocker). I blocked Captain_Frisk last night.
I didn't claim yesterday because I had blocked Axxle. The fact that there was no kill led me to believe he was scum, and we were going to lynch him anyway, so I didn't feel the need to expose myself.
Frisk is almost definitely either mafia or the SK. There is, of course, the possibility that he is town and the SK was roleblocked by the mafia. Personally, I find this unlikely.
I apologize if claiming at this point was the wrong decision, but I didn't want us to spend a lot of time trying to piece together last night without a crucial piece of information.
Since you can't claim, though, you must immediately give a full accounting of your actions Nights 1, 2, 3, and 4.
I am not going to participate in mass roleclaiming per Robz's comment and table's comment regarding roleclaiming being a bad idea. Glooble may be telling the truth, but he hasn't blocked me from killing anyone.
Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.
You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.
Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.
Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.
Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.Robz - I have several problems or questions with this post.
You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.
Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.
Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.
Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.So this post now puts Robz and Tables squarely in disagreement.
Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.
Also, SFS, remove your vote ASAP. It's no danger yet, but if a second vote were unwittingly placed, the mafia (if they consist of two members) might be able to quickhammer, and we lose. There's no benefit to voting now.
Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.emphasis mine
SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:There are lots of other reasons, which I'll not explain in the face of rising discomfort with my vote.
1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.
4 votes ends the game dude. 2 of those votes can come from mafia.
Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.emphasis mine
Is this a scumslip? It's certainly redundant, given that Dsell claimed he was a one-shot vig. Why add this thought? Feeling guilty about something?
SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:
1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.
4 votes ends the game dude. 2 of those votes can come from mafia.
Note on Glooble's claim: since a mislynch effectively ends the game for town - claiming town rolecop here to force a mislynch is a reasonable play. This particular claim is great because it can't be disproven - even when I flip town.
Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.So on this question, Frisk and Robz are on the same side.
Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.
What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.
I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.
SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.And how are we going to figure that one out?
SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.And how are we going to figure that one out?
What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.
I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.
Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?
Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah? Table's magic list said so? He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him?
Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?
Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".
If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.
I encourage everyone to reread pages 87 and 88. Captain_Frisk's posts on those pages read so scummy to me right now. More than scummy, they read like someone trying to defend O without looking like he's defending O.
There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.
That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.
Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.
What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.
I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.
As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.
I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.
As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.
I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.
As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.
Believing RobZ could be SK - ok - plausible.
Believing that SFS and I are mafia over you and Glooble? Hilarious!
While you're at it - would you like to throw some more accusations around? Perhaps SFS and Tables with the power play early cop claim?
At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."
Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.
At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."
Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.
Please walk me through the night kill scenarios for Nights 3 and 4 with SFS and I as mafia pair.
@DSell - humor me please. You have 5 kills to explain - go.
The reason why the night 3 kill explanations come up short is because you aren't telling the truth.
@DSell - humor me please. You have 5 kills to explain - go.
Night 4 is simple. Either SFS killed pops and the SK's kill was protected by doctor (if we have one) or you attempted a kill on *insert any name here* and were blocked by Glooble, the SK killed pops (which, if Robz is telling the truth, makes him look less like the SK. Except that he would have incentive to lie about his kill, so idk).
Night 3 is where difficulties arise. I attempted to shoot Axxle. Either you or SFS blocked me. You did not attempt a kill at night in order to give us this confusion and make us wonder where the kills went. This would bring tons of suspicion on both me and Axxle, two townies, over the next two days. SK's target was protected.
As usual, night 3 is pretty inadequate. But the above solution makes far more sense than me, as mafia, choosing not to kill Axxle even though I know he will be unprotected and I know that not killing him will make me look suspicious.
At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."
Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:
Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:
I'd like to question this assumption - even if I agree with pretty much all of your conclusion except for the implication that I"m a serial killer.
If lynching your mafia co-hort is illegal, then the only possible solution is DSell + Me - because we're the only ones left who didn't vote O. I don't think you and Tables can keep living on the "well we lynched O" thing any more, just like we can't auto clear SFS and tables because of the SFS day 2 claim.
I think understand why glooble and I can't be a pair. At least - it would be pretty crazy for him to try to lynch me.
Why can't I be a pair with DSell?
Ok - I'm just reacting to your statement of things as fact vs. extremely likely.
But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.
But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.
Here's a possible scenario that describes you being mafia that I don't think relies on any crazy ideas:
You are the mafia roleblocker. Someone else (lets say glooble) is your goon. Night 3 your goon made your night kill, because you wanted to block. The kill either hit SK for no effect, or was protected by town protection. You may have even tried to kill Axxle to keep your claim alive, but your goon was roleblocked.
Last night - either your protection prevented a SK kill, or town protection prevented one of the kills. The other protection failed, or maybe the town only had a 1 shot blocking.
What there are the crazy ideas in this scenario?
No crazy ideas, only false information. Are you saying there is a town roleblocker besides Glooble who has not counterclaimed and blocked Glooble, my supposed goon? Or are you saying that Glooble, who's not my goon, is lying and blocked my actual goon? Perhaps you mean that Axxle was jailed? By a traitorous town doctor?
Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:Robz - I'm concerned about everyone but me at this point, but I am concerned about you and Tables least. Glooble comes and goes on my list, sometimes approximating my level of suspicion for Dsell and Frisk. He may have me fooled, but I believe his roleclaim and target for last night, which means Frisk is scum of one variety or another.
Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble
Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:
Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble
If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.
But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.
The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.
Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.
Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.
Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.
But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.
Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
Nope.
I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:
1. Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof. The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor. Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2. Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.
Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.
Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.
@RobZWell, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.
Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.
@RobZWell, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.
Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.
Well I agree that we could have a Roleblocker and a Doctor. And I guess we could have a Roleblocker and a One-Shot Roleblocker. But there's no way we have 2 regular Roleblockers. If there is another Roleblocker, that person knows Glooble is a liar. I don't see anyone pushing the anti-Glooble case as aggressively as I am, so I am concluding that nobody else is a Roleblocker. Truly, if that assumption is false, that person should probably claim...
Yes, I agree that everyone should re-examine me. For the same reasons, someone should look at Tables. I'll try to get to that, since I'm the guy that got us into the "Tables must be ok" situation. For now, the two recollections I have on Tables are (and these are not accusations, just observations):Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.
But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.
Sure. I get this. It's logical from a certain perspective. My role claim definitely looked convenient at the time, though I'm not sure how you can look back on it and say it's convenient for me now. Glooble's claim, well that's tougher. If he's mafia and trying to lynch town, then definitely it's convenient, except that it makes no sense in terms of night 3, and the mafia would want to make a claim that fits into all that to look legitimate. We haven't attacked each other much, and that's because you are the one who asserted that our claims counter each other. As far as I can tell, the most likely night 3 scenario means they don't actually conflict.
I think there should be more analysis on SFS. I think I may attempt that later on today.
Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
See it's these little things that keep popping up.Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
Nope.
I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:
1. Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof. The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor. Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2. Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.
See it's these little things that keep popping up.Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
Nope.
I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:
1. Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof. The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor. Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2. Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.
First emphasis: The SK can't block.
Second emphasis: Axxle wasn't blocked (though he may have been protected, but I've covered that in an earlier post).
Third emphasis: Why would mafia NOT kill the SK?
All valid points, and I take no issue with any of them, so thanks for the response. Regarding point 1, I took "block" to mean an action taken, rather than a passive "occurrence".See it's these little things that keep popping up.Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.
Nope.
I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:
1. Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof. The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor. Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2. Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.
First emphasis: The SK can't block.
Second emphasis: Axxle wasn't blocked (though he may have been protected, but I've covered that in an earlier post).
Third emphasis: Why would mafia NOT kill the SK?
SFS:
1st point: If the SK is bulletproof - he can block... 1 night kill directed at him.
3rd point: The mafia (if they suspected bulletproof) might not want to waste their shot on the SK - but would rather lynch him instead.
2nd point: I agree that no town would have roleblocked DSell on night 3. However, a town roleblocker may have blocked someone else - who WAS trying to kill Axxle for DSell.
SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.
SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.
What the hell is this? Some secret code?
Well, at this point, I think we need to examine all our options, because I agree we HAVE to hit mafia. I want anyone that has issues with me to have time to bring them up, and me to address them. I've received almost no scrutiny this game, and Table is close behind. We've not fulfilled our due diligence responsibilities.SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.
What the hell is this? Some secret code?
I was wondering if SFS still advocated your lynch, because he has voted for you.
A lot of activity since this morning. First though, I need to respond to Robz - I'm not defending DSell. I fully believe him to be the Serial Killer. But we need to hit mafia today, and for the reasons I've mentioned, I think that is far more likely to be Frisk. As I explained, I think the night kills point to Frisk as mafia.
As far as his partner goes, I don't think we can rule anyone out at this point.
SFS has been an interesting character this game. He has done one very, very town thing in a very, very town way. Namely, claiming one-shot cop (I think spy in this game?) day 2 and saying that Tables investigated town. Interestingly, Tables said this didn't clear SFS. But it has mostly been enough to convince everybody that he's town largely because of the noobish nature of the claim.Cool. I think a dinosaur just got credit for being a quick learner.
Since then, SFS has been much less town-seeming and much less noobish. Frankly, I think if he had not made a claim, he may have been lynched for his scumminess by now. He was the hammer vote on O after advocating a lynch on jo. In fact, he was EXTREMELY quiet during the buildup to the O lynch until he hammered. He also hammered jo day 3. He was really critical of Jo for much of the game which I really can't fault him for, since I did the same and since jo WAS very scummy, but still I thought that SFS' case was never highly original.
Basically the only person scummier than SFS left has been Frisk. SFS of course has his claim that has made him look very good, but it's been discussed before that it could have been the idea of a more experienced mafia partner (O or Frisk) to buy him some time. If that's the case, it's worked better than they could have imagined. Here are the possibilities of the claim:
SFS is town and is telling the truth. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is investigative-immune SK or
Tables is mafia chancellor (godfather)
Honestly, it bought him a ton of time for giving us very little new information.
The other option is that SFS is mafia and lying. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is SK, unknown immunity or
It is remotely possible that Tables is also mafia, but this idea has been pretty much thrown out.
If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.
There's no rock-solid case here convicting SFS as mafia. Probably any scum who've made it this far are not going to have huge cases against them. But going back and rereading many, many of his posts, I feel that he is not as much of a noob as his first claim led many of us to believe. So he's definitely in the mafia discussion for me.
Unfortunately, I don't really have time for Mafia tonight. I have real life commitments I need to attend to. I will give attention to finding Frisk's partner, but I don't have any ideas right now. Obviously whoever it is, he's pulled a big WIFOM gambit to make us trust him.I think we have to assume the worst case scenario (2 remaining mafia, rather than one) and play accordingly.
There is also the possibility that Frisk doesn't have a partner, which has already been brought up.
I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.Dsell, I explained when I unvoted that it was to prevent a mislynch if Frisk was piled on by mafia. My position on Frisk (and you) should be clear after 3190. If I am successful in leading a Frisk lynch (which I am now actively campaigning for), you'd best kill me tonight, cause I'm coming after you next.
As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.
SFS, I also believe you are town. And I know that about myself. If Tables isn't the Serial Killer, all three of them (Frisk, Glooble, Dsell) are scum. You think Frisk is one of the mafia? He looks like the SK to me.
b) Tables reaction on Day2 (in 1214) to my investigation result was (quoting only the applicable part of the post, italics mine for separation from my prose in this post)
"SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me)."
This struck me as an odd reaction, because out of the twelve (15 -3) people remaining the morning of Day2, the very worst case scenario (4 mafia, one SK) was seven remaining town. If you subtract me cause I'm VT at that point (and mafia would be aiming elsewhere, hoping to hit a power role) that leaves 6 town. I don't think 1 in 6 odds merits a claim of "most likely I die tonight". However, if Tables were mafia, feigned outrage would be a good play in that circumstance, as it might help to cement presumption of town-ness in our minds. Also, most people told me what horrible town play it was on my part. Tables didn't take this tack.
I also think someone should take another look at Robz. I don't think it would be thorough town play to omit scrutiny of all the folks we're currently reading as town, and I suspect Robz will agree.
If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.
... I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?...(Emphasis mine)
...4 votes ends the game dude. 2 of those votes can come from mafia.(Emphasis mine)
So let's start. Robz first, because he's been so scummy today alone. "Nobody claim!" then "Everybody claim!" then ... silence on the matter. Not even a reply to me saying no. Just nothing. Then eventually after about a day, agreeing claiming would be bad. This just rings of mafia trying his luck. On top of that, despite Robz repeated claims I and him can't be mafia, I can certainly imaging he'd have taken the high risk O bus to try and elevate himself to this position.
Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.
Finally in post 3164 we have this possible scumslip:... I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?...(Emphasis mine)
HuhWHA? How could you possibly know that? How could it actually matter? Why even mention it as town? I just don't see how you could say anything like that unless it was a scumslip. Explain. Now.
Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.
So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?
SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.
These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.
Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops
In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.
Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.
O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?
@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.
Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.
VOTE: O
I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.
brisk lynch! That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.
---- so where does this leave us? ----
We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.
List time:
That leaves 6 of us:
The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk
The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle
Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell
Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.
Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod? If one could bus, then why not both? I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O. I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.
I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.
I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who. I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.
Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?
Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.
Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.
What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.
I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:
<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->
I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.
I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.
I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.
Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.
What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.
Take a step back from this O-Robz-Galz fight and tell me it looks like 3 townies squabbling.
It doesn't look that way to me. The longer the argument goes on, the worse O and Galzria look.
Okay, now read up to my last post. I hadn't even fully comprehended the bandwagon at the time of the last post.
I agree with Robz, but think he's exaggerated his numbers somewhat. I think there's almost certainly a mafia among the twice bandwagoners, but am not sure who it is. The whole debate with O has made O look even more terrible than he already was. Unfortunately I now don't have time for a full analysis, but my spreadsheet comments are: "Total failure of a defence w/ strawmanning (1942). Vote: Glooble (1955). Vote: Grujah (1974). Poor reasoning for defending vote (1989). More strawmanning a good argument (2005-6)"
In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.
It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.
Vote: O
@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.
Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.
VOTE: O
Joth's wagon now is interesting. Now the votes are down to 4, though, I think I need to look closely at when people unvoted. I suspect that, if Joth is town (which I still think there's a less than 50% chance of), then some of the mafia were probably on it, and probably jumped off vaguely when the wagon started to look unlikely to succeed - as then suspicion would fall on those still on the wagon if/when we knew Joth's loyalty. That would make Axxle and... I'm not sure who else potential suspects.
I've looked over my notes, and it seems to me the player whose contributed the least in terms of analysis I thought was notable, is O. Which is suprirsing. I think I mentioned this briefly at the end of day 1, that I found something odd about his posts, but now I'm beginning to think he may have been playing a long IIoA game. I've just reviewed his posts in the last 20 pages. There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis. The closest he really seemed to come to contributing anything particularly was when he linked to the Tarlihunder tells (or whatever).
I'm not going to vote for O, because I'm more suspicious of Joth and don't think we'd lynch him today unless a lot of other people are suspicious of him, but so everyone knows, FoS: O
Couple things.
O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.
Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.
With that long post I'm not trying to say that Robz is mafia and glooble is town, I'm really just trying to say that in terms of that bandwagon, they're on a fairly level playing field. Yet Robz has tried to use that to say that he can't be mafia while simultaneously accusing glooble of being mafia. I believe that either of their votes could have been calculated bus votes based on O's scummy reaction.
I think Robz does deserve some credit for stopping the grujah wagon. At the same time, that strikes me as the type of thing mafia Robz may do to appear consistent with town Robz. Ask yourself if you would have been suspicious of Robz if he had hammered the wagon instead.
I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.
I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.
I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.
I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending. If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.
I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.
I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending. If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.
DId SFS unvote Frisk?
I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.
I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.
Mafia 1 | Mafia 2 | Plausibility | Notes |
Captain_Frisk | RobZ | 3 | |
Captain_Frisk | SFS | 2 | SFS has been trying to lynch CF for a long time. SFS expected to be town |
Captain_Frisk | Tables | 2 | |
Captain_Frisk | Glooble | 2 | Came out with a claim to attempt a CF lynch - way too early for a bus |
Captain_Frisk | Dsell | 2 | Dsell had to be convinced to shoot Axxle instead of me. |
RobZ | SFS | 2 | |
RobZ | Tables | 2 | |
RobZ | Glooble | 3 | |
RobZ | DSell | 3 | |
SFS | Tables | 2 | This is an extremely risky early game claim - but not unplausible - especially given that they are still alive |
SFS | Glooble | 3 | Glooble tee's up suspicion on CF -> SFS immediately votes? |
SFS | DSell | 2 | |
Tables | Glooble | 2 | |
Tables | DSell | 2 | |
Glooble | DSell | 4 | Have backed off on working together - but this still feels like the most likely pair |
Frisk, I want to make sure: the spectrum runs from 0 (not plausible) to 4 (most plausible), with the "neutral" point being the default value of 2? Who do you think the SK is?
Sounds good.
Who is my partner?
Sounds good.
Who is my partner?
Well, as I've said, that's a huge hang up I have. Maybe Dsell.
Ugh, I'm really not sure. Frisk is definitely at the top of my list currently, but I can't shake this feeling Robz is something. And I've looked back, and I can't find anything new to point out or look at. SFS, any thoughts?Yeah, Robz kind of worries me too at this stage. Cause I believe glooble, and that makes him town.
Mafia 1 | Mafia 2 | Serial Killer | Notes |
Captain_Frisk | RobZ | Glooble | Glooble is bulletproof: CF / RobZ roleblocks Dsell, CF / RobZ shoots Glooble, Glooble Kill Doctored / Roleblocked by Tables. Night 4 CF / RobZ roleblock Glooble + Target Pops? WHY NOT KILL GLOOBLE? Glooble isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - Tables can't block 2 kills. Why does Glooble claim jailkeeper? |
Captain_Frisk | RobZ | SFS | SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim SFS is bulletproof: CF / RobZ shoot SFS, Block Dsell. SFS shoots someone - doctored by Tables. Night 4: CF / RobZ roleblock SFS and target pops? WHY NOT KILL SFS? Outing him also throws suspicion on Tables. SFS isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - tables can't block 2 kills. |
Captain_Frisk | RobZ | Tables | Impossible. Nobody could block table's kill. |
Captain_Frisk | SFS | Glooble | SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Glooble Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill Glooble (blocked). Glooble kill doctored / roleblocked by RobZ or Tables. Glooble Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell. Kill is blocked by Tables/RobZ. Other NK is blocked by Tables/RobZ. This one Bulletproof Glooble is plausible (only requires 1 town PR - but then Glooble is asking to be killed because he's out of vests) Why would he claim and call the attention on himself? |
Captain_Frisk | SFS | RobZ | SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim RobZ Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill RobZ (blocked). RobZ kill doctored by Tables. Glooble inadvertantly blocks my kill Night 4, RobZ kills Pops. Requires 2 town protection roles (Doctor, Roleblocker) RobZ Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell. Impossible - Tables can't block 2 kills, and Glooble's protection is wasted. |
Captain_Frisk | SFS | Tables | SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Tables Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock DSell kill Tables (blocked). Glooble kill doctored by RobZ. Requires 2 town PRs. Tables Not Bulletproof: fails - RobZ can't block 2 kills |
This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.And this cements it for me. If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?
Dsell is mafia
I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.And that gives you pause?
This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.And this cements it for me. If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?
Dsell is mafia
SFS - please don't be the townie that loses the game.Remember though, it IS a game.
I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.
Robz, really, at this point, both Mafia would not be unhappy to bus the other. We could lynch mafia today, and the mafia could still win (lynch mafia, mafia/SK both shoot town, leaving one of everything, or lynch mafia, mafia shoot SK, SK shoots town, mafia wins the 3 man face off). I have no qualms about people's behaviors today. Just look at things in previous days.
Here's my take on Frisk/Glooble with DSell Killer:
Night 3: DSell kills Axxle but is blocked by Blocker!Glooble to create confusion. Meanwhile, the mafia targets someone and are either stopped by the doctor, or they try to kill DSell, believing his claim and thinking it'll lead to an Axxle kill the following day.
Night 4: Hmm... no, actually, I'm stumped in the second scenario. So we go back to the first scenario, and the mafia try to kill DSell, who absorbs the shot, while the Doctor saves the SK target.
It's plausible. Right now of course everything sounds unlikely, but plausible.
RobZ / Tables - you will lose the game if you vote for me.
On iPod and about to leave for the day.
I don't buy this claim at all, tbh. He's 100 percent sacrificing his wincon if it's true. The serial killer wouldn't do that. Mafia ploy to stay around.
For that very reason, I am holding off on my vote to see what everyone thinks about this development. But color me unconvinced.It doesn't change a thing for me. If he's mafia, he only needs one non-mafia lynch to win. No downside in claiming SK here, if he's mafia.
Hey - I might be going there tomorrow - are you board gaming or table top?
All right guys - I hate to make kings - but I'm at least going to keep the game going.So you killed two people on Night 3? :) (That was obviously a typo).
I am the serial killer.
Night 1 - I killed theorel
Night 2 - I killed Galzria
Night 3 - I targeted Axxle
Night 3 - I targeted RobZ
I propose lynching DSell - and letting Glooble proove his innocence by blocking me. I'll direct my kill at anyone else town prefers.
Frisk: I'm mostly there to lead panels for the TV blog I write for! I'll post a link in the other thread once you start it.
SFS: That's a really good point. Why target Axxle at all if he was going to die anyway, and how did he survive?
I don't buy this at all.
I'm here. Wow.
I did expect you to claim Serial Killer. But if you shot Axxle, who is a VT, the only way he survived was if you were roleblocked or jailkept or something. I have to check to see who Glooble roleblocked Night 3...
All right guys - I hate to make kings - but I'm at least going to keep the game going.
I am the serial killer.
Night 1 - I killed theorel
Night 2 - I killed Galzria
Night 3 - I targeted Axxle
Night 3 - I targeted RobZ (typo, should read Night 4)
I propose lynching DSell - and letting Glooble proove his innocence by blocking me. I'll direct my kill at anyone else town prefers.
Night one I blocked Grujah. He looked the scummiest to me coming out of day one.
Night two I blocked pops. His response to Galz's SK hunt looked scummy to me, and I still hadn't been won over to his general playstyle. He seemed as good a candidate to me as any.
Night three I blocked Axxle, and last night I blocked Frisk.
Listen guys - bottom line is that lynching me loses town the game.Robz - I want to let you know that I now understand why you got tired of hearing me say I was a newb early in the game.
I wrestled with whether or not to let it happen, or to claim. I decided that staying silent was king making - and claiming would at least let you guys debate it out.
If you guys still lynch me - well then the loss is on you - this is a 100% trueclaim - I didn't even mix up my targets to better frame anyone.
Frisk - We are all aware that if we lose it's on us, or me, or whoever. You don't need to keep saying it.
Right now that's there, we have TWO people at L-2. Mafia could quicklynch EITHER. This is not good.
Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}
Welcome to Mafia IV!
DEAC section 781.3(b) provides that, upon the catastrophic illness, dismemberment, or dissolving of an Estate-holder or higher status, immediate command of municipal and local staff passes temporarily to the highest-ranking town official on hand. Fortunately, no one here knows that, so you were able to quote the regulations on "no hay baling after 9 on Tuesdays" to get the Estate servants listening to you instead. Not that they're going to help you find the Mafia. The best they can do is get in someone's way. But there's an infestation of them, and only a few of you leaders who could actually be the Mafia, and so maybe having the staff cowed by your encyclopaedic knowledge of the wage and hour code isn't such a bad thing. People talk about "obstruction of justice." You know that, in the right hands, obstruction IS justice.
You are a Townie, a Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}.
Each night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. They will not be able to perform an action at night if they have one.
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.
I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.
I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.
Are you referring to me? I was at L-1 - and bullied Glooble into unvoting so that you and Tables couldn't quick hammer.
I DO NOT believe C_F's claim. I strongly believe that it makes zero sense for a serial killer to claim under any circumstance. If he's serial killer, he has completely aborted any chance that he had to win, and I don't believe that C_F would do that. Robz and tables had both expressed doubt and confusion and it was by no means certain that they would have hammered him.
I believe that there is zero chance that he would claim that if he was actually serial killer so I believe there is a zero chance that he's actually serial killer.
However, that claim makes perfect sense if he's mafia! It buys him another day and the actual serial killer would not abort their own chances by counterclaiming. It buys him at least another day which is very possibly more than enough for him to win! This is an extremely scummy claim and I don't believe it. I'm not going to counterclaim serial killer, not because it will abort my chances of winning but because I'm not the serial killer. However, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim if he's the actual SK and every reason for him to claim if he's mafia.
AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.
I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.
Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.
AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.
I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.
Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.
Tables - DSell might not have been the shooter (because DSell is the roleblocker who has been blocking me). His partner could be the shooter - and his partner could have been blocked. That blocker would be you, or RobZ.
So let me get this straight.
DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?
It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.
Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.
So let me get this straight.
DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?
It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.
Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.
Since numbers are so down though, I'd like to say, if I die during the night, I still view SFS as the most likely town, Glooble I think I can believe, but could easily see him lying, Robz I trust more than DSell and Frisk is about to die so, eh. If Frisk flips town we've probably lost (and he's made a ridiculous claim), if he flips SK we still probably have but... good luck to Glooble, Robz or myself, whichever happen to have protective/preventative roles of some kind (I have no intent to deny or confirm whether I have those now, but I think it's clear us three are the ones who might as everyone else has claimed).
Which brings me nicely to: Frisk - yes, your point?
So let me get this straight.You don't think it's been talked to death? You think it will get better than 95%?
DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?
It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.
Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.
Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).
Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).
Your theory requires the mafia to roleblock you on a whim. Why would they do that?
If my mind were made up, I'd have hammered. In fact I was just about to! But now Frisk has actually made me think. So I'm going to think. Might as well humour a dead man if he's wrong, and definitely worth humouring him if he's right.
Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).
Well, look at it this way. If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.
I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out. Or not. I'll check back in in a few hours.
Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).
Well, look at it this way. If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.
I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out. Or not. I'll check back in in a few hours.
SFS - I am scum - but in order to lynch mafia - you will need to team up with the serial killer. Glooble and DSell are super buddy buddy. They aren't even participating in any realistic possibility that the other is mafia.
Seriously guys - before you lynch me - you really should have a plausible thought on who my partner is.
Frisk: We aren't sorry for making you claim Scum.
Robz, you don't think any of the pairings are that likely, right?
Alright, I've thought a bit, and... Frisk's arguments are good, but they just aren't convincing enough. Vote: FriskSo that's the hammer? Frisk is gone?
There's a few factors that play in here: Firstly, shooting Axxle really doesn't seem the best choice for serial killer. Yes, at that point he was likely scum, but why potentially waste your kill? DSell seems so so much better - he's not going to be protected by doctor, if he's scum, scum gets shot, if he's town, well if his kill went through he's dead anyway. Clear but dead. If it didn't, Axxle dies the next day anyway, not a big loss to the SK. Secondly, by claiming SK, you revoked any ability to win the game. Best case scenario tomorrow would be 1 SK 1 Mafia 1 Town, and the Mafia and Town would insta lynch you as neither could do any better. You're either lying or not playing to your wincon. In the second, you deserve to get lynched, and in the first, I want you lynched. And you're a smart player... I'm reasonably confident it's the first.
Very quick pre-exam post:
I'm pretty sure Theo is Witch kill,trying to weed out competition; no real need for mafia to kill him, many people though of him scummy. Though it is possible to be overeager Vig, as if I were Vig, Theo really was on top of my list for NK. Only reason I see for theo dieing if he was "on to them" but... Will need to review post of both of them now.
Also Theo being Village Idiot probably means no Masons, (considering this is most likely C9++).
So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? ::) ;D
Grujah ("derp not bandwagoning townies is a scumtell")
Well, it seems not aging with you is scummy as well. Ok, it might be a honest townie scumhunting on its own, not caring for "big mouth" players. OTOH, it might be a easy way to feign activity and still be clear when a misslynch happens. Definately a way to lurk without actually lurking. Could it be either of those? Undoubtedly, yes. Thing is, it seems to be a patterned behavior. That on its own is scummy. Easy to do and call it a playstyle. Really, just a thing I picked up, though it might be worth mentioning. I scimmed through some mafiascum games actually, and this actually isn't that uncommon mafia (or I had a really small sample). Kinda weird you got a bit jumpy there.
Umm... okay? You think we suck because in a thread of 3,000 posts, we didn't notice and investigate a setup claim from someone posted at the start of a long day? I think that's a bit harsh. Especially considering it could well have NOT been that setup, and just coincidentally similar.
There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.
That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.
Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.
What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.
Things I've learned from this game:
1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.
2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.
Things I've learned from this game:
1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.
2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.
I really don't know how I survived that. I figured it would be easy to explain one missing kill, but not three! Props to frisk for trying to trip me up by shooting Axxle too. I guess by the time the town had run through the other likely scenarios (killing Axxle) it was too late to kill me for fear I was the serial killer. And I definitely ran with the mantle.
Things I've learned from this game:
1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.
2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.
I really don't know how I survived that. I figured it would be easy to explain one missing kill, but not three!
I didn't shoot Axxle because I though it would be easy to explain one missing kill. It was probably a mistake. And voltgloss was an amazing mod!!!! Top-notch, really. Best flavor posts ever.
Kill: Theorel.
Side note: I'm almost glad that I died in M3. I was slightly uncomfortable with you knowing this particular role + playing with me alive in M3 - despite having full confidence that you are a standup guy who wouldn't play that way... but this role is EVIL. Thank you for giving it to me :)
Kill: Galzria
Dear Galz - I regret doing this, but I feel like its my only way out. I hope you're mafia, but suspect that you are town. I'm sneaking into your house and killing you because you have incorrectly read me as O's mafia co-hort, even though I am 100% scum.
Kill: Axxle2
Here's the reasoning for posterity sake. Axxle2 is effectively voting for his own death here. This is anti - town - but I don't care - I am also anti-town.
Because I am the serial killer - there are only 4 combinations of alignment for DSell / Axxle2
1. Axxle1 is mafia + DSell is mafia. This solution is my least likely, because they are boned if this is the pairing, because if DSell doesn't kill Axxle - he's screwed, and once DSell is revealed, then Axxle isn't long after. However - if I kill Axxle - DSell can claim it as his own - keeping the town in the dark. As long as the mafia doesn't kill me. 2 night kills doesn't clear DSell as serial killer at all.
2. Axxle1 is mafia + DSell is town - telling the truth. Axxle1's vote for the plan effectivelly means that he's going to die - which is either stupid ... or he'd have to have some role blocking in place to avoid dieing. That roleblocking would be spent on DSell - who has announced intent to kill Axxle. My kill will push it it over the edge. Added bonus - 2 night kills doesn't clear DSell as serial killer at all - so we I can still lynch him in the future. I like this solution as it gets rid of 1 more enemy while not clearing DSell.
3. Axxle1 is town and DSell is mafia - DSell needs to target Axxle1 - and he's praying that I target someone else to preserve his cover. With only 1 night kill - DSell is confirmed as mafia unless someone claims protection. Guess who likes roleclaims? Serial killer!
4. Axxle1 is town and DSell is town - Axxle1 is an idiot for voting to kill himself. 2 people die tonight doesn't clear DSell as serial killer. I'm still screwed because I have no idea who the mafia are - but at least they'll probably join me in a DSell lynch tomorrow.
Kill: RobZ
I do not expect this to go through.
SECRET DAYKILL: RobZ888
It's kinda ironic that not blocking Frisk might have actually helped us. I also love that the last two surviving townies were the two "confirmed" townies day 2.
Glooble was so pro, you guys. I have no idea how he toed the line of suspicion so effectively.
I felt like I was in a mental battle with Frisk and with Robz all of day 5. I had the advantage over both of them because I knew their alignments and they didn't know mine for sure, but I think there was a lot of undercurrent in the conversation between Frisk and I. Lots of information that we knew or thought we knew that nobody else (besides Glooble) knew. And with Robz, he was making too much sense so I had to make others doubt him and ultimately he doubted himself too.
I was really glad O could still talk in the QT but I don't think it would have changed much if he couldn't talk.
I didn't see a problem with O still talking in a QT to which he already had access. For those who question it - why do you feel that is an issue?
"Why is Robz generally turning conversation AWAY from CF? AWAY from Jo? (both of whom he suspected HEAVILY D2) AWAY from Pops?
He is systematically going about clearing THE most scum riddled people, and accusing the rest. It goes counter to logical play, and it goes counter to his OWN logic D2.
His play makes NO sense to me and is the single most confusing thing to happen D3."
It's kinda ironic that not blocking Frisk might have actually helped us. I also love that the last two surviving townies were the two "confirmed" townies day 2.
Glooble was so pro, you guys. I have no idea how he toed the line of suspicion so effectively.
I felt like I was in a mental battle with Frisk and with Robz all of day 5. I had the advantage over both of them because I knew their alignments and they didn't know mine for sure, but I think there was a lot of undercurrent in the conversation between Frisk and I. Lots of information that we knew or thought we knew that nobody else (besides Glooble) knew. And with Robz, he was making too much sense so I had to make others doubt him and ultimately he doubted himself too.
I was really glad O could still talk in the QT but I don't think it would have changed much if he couldn't talk.
Really, the fact that I had been wrong about Jo and Axxle made me so unsure of myself that I wanted to defer to Tables and SFS on the last day. Though really I was ultimately right when I said Frisk has no friends, Glooble and Dsell are friends. And of course y'all wanted Frisk dead, you knew was the SK.
Well, yes.
He is dead, he shouldn't be able to talk to his teammates.
I assumed that was the case.
Well, yes.
He is dead, he shouldn't be able to talk to his teammates.
I assumed that was the case.
I see it as analogous as letting dead Town players join the spectator quicktopic.
Hey, QT people: WHERE ARE YOUR ROBZ IS THE SERIAL KILLER THEORIES NOW??? Oh that's right, they're in Wrong Town. Ouch.
Hey, QT people: WHERE ARE YOUR ROBZ IS THE SERIAL KILLER THEORIES NOW??? Oh that's right, they're in Wrong Town. Ouch.
Did you just claim SK for a different game? :P
Robz has one big fallacy that I've seen:
He takes all role-claims under preassure to be true.
He completely bought Jo's without a second thought in M-III, and here in 2990, he completely dismisses Dsell lying being the cause of no deaths at night.
I'm honestly surprised to see this reaction, but if people really want to bar non-Town players from being able to talk with anybody about the game for the rest of the entire game after they are killed, including people who knew their alignments from the beginning of that game, then I'll impose that rule going forward.
I'm honestly surprised to see this reaction, but if people really want to bar non-Town players from being able to talk with anybody about the game for the rest of the entire game after they are killed, including people who knew their alignments from the beginning of that game, then I'll impose that rule going forward.
Voltgloss, the thing is that dead mafia who can still talk to mafia can offer strategic advice to their fellow mafia that impact the game. However, I don't have a problem with that.
So will you all want to require that the remaining Mafia players receive a new quicktopic every time one of them is killed? To prevent deceased Mafia players from reading the QT and then PM'ing their living teammates?
You don't need to give a new link - because if the dead mafia would cheat and PM - they would just do it anyway.
I haven't caught up on the thread. But I'm still ticked at everyone for the Jo mislynch. It was totally stupid.
I haven't caught up on the thread. But I'm still ticked at everyone for the Jo mislynch. It was totally stupid.
Based on strength of twin claim?
1-1-1 is an obvious no-lynch situation for the real town Tables, thus presenting the SK with a POSSIBLE win.
Also after reading the quick topic, man, Galz, you need to work on your reads :(.
@CF I don't understand the question
Yes. And that was my undoing- Galz sensed it immediately. There's something about being a one-man team, knowing that if you get lynched, that's it, that makes you way too cautious.
Doesn't change the fact that Galz pegged me.
I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.
I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.
So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?
I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.
So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?
I believe he said in the QT he would've shot again.
I'm super sad that everyone in the QT knew that I had to be mafia from my roleclaim. :(
But I'm super happy that everyone still in the game bought it for just long enough. ;D
I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.
So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?
So to continue the question I raised to frisk:
you know axxle is not SK. So the reason you shoot him can only be that you think he is mafia. But dsell is shooting him. So you are playing for the mafia roleblocking dsell, in the case that dsell is really a town vig.
I was wondering why you didn't shoot Dsell. The worst thing can happen (barring that you are blocked) is that axxle survived and dsell flipped town. But if that is the case axxle is probably going to be lynched immediately and confirmed mafia. When you shoot axxle, if he flipped town you then lose a shot, unless you expect dsell shoots elsewhere. But I don't really see a reason for that: either way there will be one kill missing and in the case when mafia dsell shoot axxle he can always claim that the mafia just stop killing to make him suspicious. (Indeed, if he's a vig mafia can do this to buy an extra dsell lynch, not dissimilar to the actual axxle lynch.)
Preedit: I was specifically talking about the analysis you put out when you had a list at some point where you listed different people as probable SKs. Yes it serves very well as a camouflage, but I just can't quite imagine an SK will do so, because he knew already that all this analysis are futile. It's a bit unlike the mafia play where there is a direction they are trying to lead to.
I'm not gonna lie on the last day I was hoping CF was a VT and claimed SK to get people to not mislynch, and well after that HE DID claim SK so that made me happy
Is Axxle around? I got a bone to pick with Axxle. Twice he didn't do too much to argue against us killing him. Twice! Or did he defend himself ably and I was just blind to it? When he wasn't mafia, after Jo wasn't, I was just so lost at that point.
Is Axxle around? I got a bone to pick with Axxle. Twice he didn't do too much to argue against us killing him. Twice! Or did he defend himself ably and I was just blind to it? When he wasn't mafia, after Jo wasn't, I was just so lost at that point.I'm not here, please leave a message.
I don't care about your loss. I want you to take responsibility for MY LOSS.
:)
Robz, why did you insist on vigs rather than SKs? That was pretty bad for the town in several ways.
Robz, why did you insist on vigs rather than SKs? That was pretty bad for the town in several ways.
Seriously! I was getting ready for a big mega post on how RobZ was the serial killer because of his crazy theories on this + Galz's read.
Your stupid twin brother messed it all up when he claimed and convinced everyone I was mafia.