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[Dsell]

Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.

I noticed this in a big way when I looked back on SFS' actions day 2. This is gonna be a big post with lots of quotes, fyi.

Here is where Robz first mentions being actually suspicious of/willing to lynch O. O lands right in the middle of his suspicion list, beneath two confirmed townies.

So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?

SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.

These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.

Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

In his very next post, seven minutes later, he's changed his tune a bit and is more confident that O and Galz are mafia, and they (and jo, and even Frisk to a lesser extent) are the ones he suggests could be mafia in the next couple pages. Note that O has zero votes at this point. A couple pages later, Tables comes along and votes for O, citing Robz' argument with O but noting that Robz had exaggerated. Skip ahead another couple pages (to 86), Robz comes back and again puts Galz then O atop his "want to lynch" list. Tables then makes a huge case against O, followed by this post by Robz, in which he votes for O.

@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.

Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.

VOTE: O

Robz had been suspicious of O before Tables voted but he did not specifically say he wanted to lynch O until 9 minutes before he actually voted and long after Tables made his case against O clear. Maybe this is semantics, but I would challenge Robz to quote the post where he "asked which the rest of the town would rather lynch" as he claims in the above post. He'd thrown suspicion on them and others but it wasn't until Tables had made a thorough case that he said, "Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick."

None of this seemed really wrong at the time, which is why nobody was immediately suspicious. But I believe the tale has been steadily getting taller and taller, and Robz has repeatedly cited this vote as why he unequivocally cannot be mafia. Tables is the one who made the strong case against O and Robz pretty clearly just went along with it. Now, who knows if he thought the wagon was going anywhere, but Ray Charles could have seen how scummy O was being and I would certainly not put it past a mafia Robz to bus his partner very early in this case. And yet, he has used this to say that he (oh and tables too sorta kinda I guess) was the champion against O, and Robz is now cleared for the game. Here's one post where he makes this claim:

I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.

Again, show me where you "put it to everybody else to say which." You can't. You throw suspicion around, but you never even suggest a lynch until Tables has meticulously laid out a case. The closest he comes is asking what Tables, Axxle, and I think of his suspicions of Galz, O, jo, and Frisk. Anyway, here's where he ADAMANTLY asserts that he is not mafia, and I believe this is where our tale is at its tallest:

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.

Frisk quickly pulls back all suspicion of Robz being mafia. But an interesting point is brought up here. Glooble. Who Robz accuses me of being in cahoots with. So what was Glooble doing when O came under fire? Well, after Robz had listed who he was suspicious of but before Tables made a case/voted, Glooble listed O as the most suspicious person, by a good margin actually:

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:

<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->

I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.

I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.

I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.

So while Robz is clearing himself for spearheading the O lynch, he is claiming that Glooble, who said O was the most suspicious even before he was under real fire, is mafia. At the risk of looking super duper chummy with Gloob, this accusation seems disingenuous. Glooble was the third vote on the O wagon.

Also interestingly, O listed Glooble as the most suspicious person before there was a vote or really even much of any suspicion on him. Maybe Glooble's suspicion was an OMGUS, but the fact that they both listed each other as most suspicious before there was a real bandwagon going suggests to me that they're not a team. If O had listed Gloob as most suspicious when it was looking like he would be lynched, well there's WIFOM there but I would be more suspicious of Glooble in that case.

So after looking back at SFS, I found some things to make me really concerned about Robz, and this is not even incorporating his actions the last two days. After looking back, Glooble and especially Tables are looking not very like mafia to me while I now must fully retract my position that Robz is very likely not mafia. I'm not saying it's the most likely thing, but the fact that Robz' recounting of the O bandwagon does not quite match up with the facts makes me worried that the town is being essentially led by a false leader.

[Robz888]

Dsell, you begin the tale too early.

Day 2: After a long day and several failed wagons Grujah foes to lynch-1. After Galzria takes the penultimate step toward lynch, I immediately cry "Stop, halt, desist" and Glooble unvotes. [#1982]

I deserve some credit for preventing the lynch of townie Grujah, don't I? I then go on to say how scummy the various people on the wagon are. You're right that my attention isn't initially on O. But O and Galzria's reactions to what I'm saying drives them to the front of my suspicions. Soon after, I make the following post. Here is where I asked the town to choose from my most likely suspects:

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

At this point I do list O and Galzria as my top suspects. It actually gets pretty nasty between me and O--I end up apologizing to him for being a little mean a couple posts later. That I am fighting with O and Galzria is not lost on Jo, who posts:

Take a step back from this O-Robz-Galz fight and tell me it looks like 3 townies squabbling.

It doesn't look that way to me. The longer the argument goes on, the worse O and Galzria look.

Now Dsell, you are right that Glooble does list O as a top "suspicion" person. But he didn't vote for him there. It's easy for mafia to "suspect" fellow mafia. Tables, right after this, does his post choosing and voting for O:

Okay, now read up to my last post. I hadn't even fully comprehended the bandwagon at the time of the last post.

I agree with Robz, but think he's exaggerated his numbers somewhat. I think there's almost certainly a mafia among the twice bandwagoners, but am not sure who it is. The whole debate with O has made O look even more terrible than he already was. Unfortunately I now don't have time for a full analysis, but my spreadsheet comments are: "Total failure of a defence w/ strawmanning (1942). Vote: Glooble (1955). Vote: Grujah (1974). Poor reasoning for defending vote (1989). More strawmanning a good argument (2005-6)"

In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.

It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.

Vote: O

Next, Frisk goes for Jo. Axxle goes for Galzria. And then I join Tables in voting for O:

@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.

Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.

VOTE: O

I am the second person on the O vote.

Basically, it looks to me like it happened pretty much the way I said it did: I stop the Grujah wagon (it was L-1!), accuse all the Grujah voters, Galzria and O react the strongest, I point my finger at them, Glooble says he suspects O, Tables votes O, I vote O, Glooble votes O, etc.

Now Dsell, you are right that Glooble does get some points here, now that I look at it again. However I don't ascribe much wait to the fact that he ranked O high on suspicion, but didn't actually vote him until Tables and I did. That's not to say it doesn't get any weight. It's worth something. It does complicate things.

Because the only living people who never got on the O wagon at all were you and Frisk.

[Glooble]

Wait, wouldn't only two mafia make more sense if they were both power roles (a thief and a chancellor)? It seems like it would balance things somewhat. Did Volt say anything in the opening posts to disallow this possibility?

[Tables]

No, but O flipping generic Goon does weaken the theory a little.

[Tables]

Interesting now how even history seems to be being questioned. Robz explanation of his supposed scumslip is making me go derp, although I still find it a little odd that Robz highlighted the lack of Godfather in particular.

I did some looking back and this is, as far as I can tell, the first time O comes under fire.

Joth's wagon now is interesting. Now the votes are down to 4, though, I think I need to look closely at when people unvoted. I suspect that, if Joth is town (which I still think there's a less than 50% chance of), then some of the mafia were probably on it, and probably jumped off vaguely when the wagon started to look unlikely to succeed - as then suspicion would fall on those still on the wagon if/when we knew Joth's loyalty. That would make Axxle and... I'm not sure who else potential suspects.

I've looked over my notes, and it seems to me the player whose contributed the least in terms of analysis I thought was notable, is O. Which is suprirsing. I think I mentioned this briefly at the end of day 1, that I found something odd about his posts, but now I'm beginning to think he may have been playing a long IIoA game. I've just reviewed his posts in the last 20 pages. There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis. The closest he really seemed to come to contributing anything particularly was when he linked to the Tarlihunder tells (or whatever).

I'm not going to vote for O, because I'm more suspicious of Joth and don't think we'd lynch him today unless a lot of other people are suspicious of him, but so everyone knows, FoS: O

Me and him have a little back-and-forth following this, and he slips up and is jumped on by a few people. Pops, Joth, me, Axxle all jump onto O and demand an explanation. At this point O is already in deep water. It's only after this that Robz starts to push the case more. Especially, Robz first reaction is:

Couple things.

O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.

Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.

The rest plays out with Robz stopping the Grujah lynch, which is definitely earning him townie points and is why he's survived pretty much unscathed until today. But now... townie points help but don't exonerate.

[Robz888]

As far as I am concerned, Tables is exonerated from being mafia, but not Serial Killer. I do think there is a difference in Tables's anti-O activity and Glooble's. Tables put the first vote on O at a time when I was pushing the town to select a new wagon. You just wouldn't do that to your partner.

I can see Glooble's vote as a calculated move to join the wagon of a cohort. Even though it was just the 3rd vote, I think it might have been clear to GLooble that O was going to be lynched. He had overreacted so crazily that everyone was wary of him.

But I don't know. Does this make Frisk and Dsell look even worse? They did not get on the wagon.

Really, I'd bet it all on Jo/Axxle, and that was wrong. So I will sort of follow what Tables thinks, if he has any strong notions about who we should lynch here. I'm just very alarmed about lynching Frisk when he seems to have no living friends, and thus no partner.

[Dsell]

Frisk's biggest friend in this game is Robz.

[Dsell]

With that long post I'm not trying to say that Robz is mafia and glooble is town, I'm really just trying to say that in terms of that bandwagon, they're on a fairly level playing field. Yet Robz has tried to use that to say that he can't be mafia while simultaneously accusing glooble of being mafia. I believe that either of their votes could have been calculated bus votes based on O's scummy reaction.

I think Robz does deserve some credit for stopping the grujah wagon. At the same time, that strikes me as the type of thing mafia Robz may do to appear consistent with town Robz. Ask yourself if you would have been suspicious of Robz if he had hammered the wagon instead.

[Robz888]

With that long post I'm not trying to say that Robz is mafia and glooble is town, I'm really just trying to say that in terms of that bandwagon, they're on a fairly level playing field. Yet Robz has tried to use that to say that he can't be mafia while simultaneously accusing glooble of being mafia. I believe that either of their votes could have been calculated bus votes based on O's scummy reaction.

I think Robz does deserve some credit for stopping the grujah wagon. At the same time, that strikes me as the type of thing mafia Robz may do to appear consistent with town Robz. Ask yourself if you would have been suspicious of Robz if he had hammered the wagon instead.

I think that in terms Day 2 voting, Glooble and I are in nowhere near the same position. My actions prevented innocent Grujah from dying and caused guilty O to die. Glooble was voting for Grujah when I objected. I think Tables is in a similarly innocent looking position as me coming out of Day 2, and I think a reasonable person would conclude that either of us could still be the Serial Killer.

[Dsell]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

[Robz888]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

[Voltgloss]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

[Dsell]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

While I'm not sure that is 100% factually correct, that is exactly the part of your post that I did not quote.

[Robz888]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

DId SFS unvote Frisk?

[Robz888]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I had an argument with O and Galz because I was accusing them. I was going along with my plan, which was to lynch either Galzria or O, depending upon who the town found scummier.

[Voltgloss]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

DId SFS unvote Frisk?

At #3123. 

[Captain_Frisk]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

Wouldn't Grujah have claimed, and then we would have let him live?  No more claiming single handed Grujah saving

I Saved Grujah by unvoting instead of using my masterful debating skills to press on for a lynch.

Hallelujah!

[Tables]

Okay, I know I was actually the one who bought this up, but the current argument is useless and pretty meaningless. Grujah was lined up for a lynch. He probably would have claimed. If I'd been there, I'd have likely done the same thing as Robz, but a lot less forcefully. Still, Robz was probably responsible for avoiding a Grujah mislynch on day 2. He was almost certainly responsible for not requiring Grujah to claim first. That's how I see it.

[Robz888]

Tables, while you're hear, who are you currently leaning toward as the best lynch? I am genuinely curious, and I only really trust you and SFS, and I know what SFS thinks.

My mind is very very un-made up. Frisk and Dsell are the two non-O voters, but Dsell and Glooble are going anti-Frisk right now, making me think they are the pair. And of course they are the claimants.

[Tables]

It WAS actually you, but with the obvexplanation of the scumslip you're definitely not my top one, probably not top two any more. I'm still about 80% certain DSell is scum, which is ridiculous odds, but lynching Killer is of course really bad right now, and I'd say he makes enough sense to be killer. I'm less sure on you, I know it's not me, I'm still pretty confident on SFS mostly based on his analysis, behavior and also, I really don't think the town has no investigative roles (and any other would surely have outed useful information by now?). That leaves Glooble and Frisk. And well I can believe Glooble's claim, but I can also disbelieve it. But I'm a little more inclined to believe it. Frisk... I'm really struggling to say. I've townread him days 4+5, but looking back, I can see I might have had a false negative on him. What he did certainly exonerated him less than what you did exonerated you, and I've shot at you quite a bit.

So... I'm leaning towards Frisk or DSell. I really think I need to look back at DSell's attitude towards various people during days 1-2, especially towards O. It's one thing my notes can't do; I can't record how every person has treated every other person, and especially can't do it in a way that'd make posthumous I-know-X's-loyalty-now analysis useful. But rereading can take a while, so I dunno.

[Tables]

That said, I can immediately point out that (missing votes excluded (only missing votes are likely to be RVS ones)) DSell has never voted for anyone currently alive, or for O - i.e. He's never voted for anyone but a townie. I don't think this is strong evidence however for a variety of factors so don't think this is something to jump on. It's actually barely worth noting, but IS worth noting.

[Dsell]

IIRC, I've only voted for jo, Galz, and Axxle2 in this game. So yeah, bad odds, but I really haven't been throwing my vote around, either.

[Robz888]

Tables, okay, thanks for that. That's fairly helpful. It probably is toughest to see Glooble as a liar, if we are looking at the three. He did go for O more strongly than I had remembered, and he was the third person to vote O. My notes had him as the fourth, so I think I got that wrong in a couple posts, possibly. It's like an exponential curve for me--being the 3rd person on that wagon makes him look a lot better than being 4th, I think.

If it's down to Dsell and Frisk... you're right that Dsell has to be scum of some sort. In my view, he has not argued on behalf of himself well at all. I don't think he's had convincing explanations for night things. I don't think he's been quite shocked enough in the mornings. But he just does look more like SK.

So that leaves Frisk. Do you understand that my big hangup with him is that he is so friendless right now? Yeah, I know, I'm his friend. But I know I'm not mafia, so that doesn't help me figure out who his scumbuddy could be.

[Dsell]

Robz, way back in the mafia 1 discussion quicktopic, I was shocked that people (especially O IIRC) weren't more shocked with the deaths in the morning. Someone said that was unproductive as town and not actually a scumtell. It made sense to me so now I just try to move forward and use the info we get in a productive way.

I'm glad to see you're back and posting Tables, it will be interesting to see what you come up with. I'm surprised that you're so convinced I'm scum but I don't see much I can do about it besides continuing to scumhunt. Honestly I've mostly made my decision and I rather doubt much will change for me the rest of the day.

[Tables]

I understand Robz, but I also think it doesn't matter. At this point he's suspicious, so town wants to lynch him, and it's near the endgame where the mafia want to make their mad dash to the finish, so they're probably willing to bus to avoid suspicion on themselves. If I were mafia and Frisk were my teammate, I wouldn't be overly fussed at this point for him to be lynched; or rather, I wouldn't want to stick my head out to defend him.