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[faust]

If we go with the second set and choose wrong it’s game over. If we go with the first set and choose wrong then we can at least draw the game if EFHW is an actual vig. (We’re at 3-2, exile makes it 2-2, nightkills make it 1-1).

This is not a draw. We end up with 1 town/1 scum, there is no exile, and then scum kills the remaining town.

[jotheonah]

If we go with the second set and choose wrong it’s game over. If we go with the first set and choose wrong then we can at least draw the game if EFHW is an actual vig. (We’re at 3-2, exile makes it 2-2, nightkills make it 1-1).

This is not a draw. We end up with 1 town/1 scum, there is no exile, and then scum kills the remaining town.

Oh yeah. Good point.

[jotheonah]

So EFHW isn’t really helpful to us in any scenario. Which answers Didds’ question.

[faust]

So EFHW isn’t really helpful to us in any scenario. Which answers Didds’ question.

Well she is helpful in the sense that if we end this day and we're not sure whether EFHW is town or not, she can try to shoot the last scum to prevent herself being exiled.

[EFHW]

I guess I need to reread this game.

Why do you need to reread? You said you had a cop result. And yeah, why investigate faust? He's hardly the scummiest person here. Why not Didds? Or me? or joth!

[EFHW]

If I had to pick now I’d say faust and EFHW are friends and fang and Didds are foes.

This is where I land as well. For peace of mind, though, I really do want to hear why you are town.

[infangthief]

Hey fang, why did you pick faust to investigate?

Yesterday people (EFHW and Dylan I think?) were talking about agreement bias, and it occurred to me that that was where my assumption that faust was town was coming from.

So it seemed good to get some reassurance there.
Like yes, yes, faust making lots of sense, agree with all of that, exile Didds, exile EFHW... Oh, we lost.

[EFHW]

It does seem a bit OP that we would have a vig and all these other roles, especially when scum doesn't have much.  We'll have to ask math about that later. We don't know yet which of the 10,000 roles that have been claimed are legit, but cop + vig + bodyguard + mayor + rolecop + roleblocker seems like 2 too many roles. From my perspective, the two unverified are the cop and roleblocker. fang and scola have been fighting tooth and nail. Could it be an act? fang's case on scola was super-flimsy and scola has been relying primarily on OMGUS for his case. I'll reread them.

Reposting this rather than retyping it.

[EFHW]

@fang, when you said scola's first post was scummy, what were you referring to?

[infangthief]

I guess I need to reread this game.

Why do you need to reread? You said you had a cop result. And yeah, why investigate faust? He's hardly the scummiest person here. Why not Didds? Or me? or joth!

Because I've been thinking faust is town pretty much the entire game. Things will probably look quite different knowing he's scum. I wonder what all I have got wrong.

As for investigating faust - see answer to joth. But also, why should I investigate the scummiest person? We've got to find two scum, not just one, and I probably don't get two chances to investigate and report back (am surprised to even get one). "Scummiest person is scum" doesn't help us much.

PPE 2

[infangthief]

@fang, when you said scola's first post was scummy, what were you referring to?

Um, see if I can remember. The one about why MiX was voting for him. I think it was a gut feel, like how he wasn't replying to MiX, he was explaining the situation to everyone else, just seemed a weird and overly defensive way of going about things.

[jotheonah]

If I had to pick now I’d say faust and EFHW are friends and fang and Didds are foes.

This is where I land as well. For peace of mind, though, I really do want to hear why you are town.

I guess “because I am” is probably not going to be helpful.

But I don’t have a lot more. Two you what, when I reread I’ll also look out for good reasons I’m town.

[jotheonah]

Getting on a plane in a bit. Gonna re-read when I’m up there if the Wi-Fi works.

[EFHW]

@fang, when you said scola's first post was scummy, what were you referring to?

Um, see if I can remember. The one about why MiX was voting for him. I think it was a gut feel, like how he wasn't replying to MiX, he was explaining the situation to everyone else, just seemed a weird and overly defensive way of going about things.

His first post was #58, about sports I think.

[EFHW]

I guess I need to reread this game.

Why do you need to reread? You said you had a cop result. And yeah, why investigate faust? He's hardly the scummiest person here. Why not Didds? Or me? or joth!

Because I've been thinking faust is town pretty much the entire game. Things will probably look quite different knowing he's scum. I wonder what all I have got wrong.

As for investigating faust - see answer to joth. But also, why should I investigate the scummiest person? We've got to find two scum, not just one, and I probably don't get two chances to investigate and report back (am surprised to even get one). "Scummiest person is scum" doesn't help us much.

PPE 2

If you feel good about faust, and there's only one more chance to find scum, it seems like you investigate someone you don't feel good about because a town result on someone you already think is town is not informative, but either result on a scummy person is helpful.

[infangthief]

@fang, when you said scola's first post was scummy, what were you referring to?

Um, see if I can remember. The one about why MiX was voting for him. I think it was a gut feel, like how he wasn't replying to MiX, he was explaining the situation to everyone else, just seemed a weird and overly defensive way of going about things.

His first post was #58, about sports I think.

Ok, yeah, #57. I didn't understand the sport thing. Golden balloon? Messi is football (er, soccer) right. All I picked up on was he was trying to give an explanation for why MiX was voting for him.

[infangthief]

I guess I need to reread this game.

Why do you need to reread? You said you had a cop result. And yeah, why investigate faust? He's hardly the scummiest person here. Why not Didds? Or me? or joth!

Because I've been thinking faust is town pretty much the entire game. Things will probably look quite different knowing he's scum. I wonder what all I have got wrong.

As for investigating faust - see answer to joth. But also, why should I investigate the scummiest person? We've got to find two scum, not just one, and I probably don't get two chances to investigate and report back (am surprised to even get one). "Scummiest person is scum" doesn't help us much.

PPE 2

If you feel good about faust, and there's only one more chance to find scum, it seems like you investigate someone you don't feel good about because a town result on someone you already think is town is not informative, but either result on a scummy person is helpful.

Did you read the other bit? I realised I had no actual idea about faust, if I was going to try and get past my agreement bias.
Didds scum, joth town, you in between, faust no idea.
And no point investigating you because I figured the only reason I'd be alive is if scum decided to kill you instead.

[infangthief]

Right, rereading, see how far I get, looking for significant things involving faust, EFHW, joth, scola. And it looks like I need to convince people of my own towniness too.

First significant thing is the early day 1 wagon on scola.

Mix votes for scola in first post of game, scola responds with #57 giving a reason why MiX would vote for him, faust votes for scola, and a bit later has this comment:

Oooh, literally.

So, does anyone else think scola's reaction to my vote is more scum indicative than not?

I mean, I voted for the guy, what else do you need to know?

I vote for scola also, and then suggest Joseph might want to as well (#118), seeing as Joseph wanted a wagon, then faust moves away from scola:

Actually, where are people? Dylan? gkrieg?

Yeah these are not the most reliable of posters.

Vote: Dylan

I have this issue where I always mix up scolapasta and Dylan, thus it would be very pro-town for one of them to get exiled early.

I challenge faust on this and we have this exchange:

faust, why did you move your vote away from scolapasta?

PPE: 2!

Because there were other people that I would rather vote for.

scola was under pressure at 3 votes and you moved away before he'd even responded.
To dylan. How is that helpful?

It is helpful for my vote to be on the person I most want to see exiled, in general. Sometimes, you have to compromise, but I don't think this was such a time. Early-game pressure isn't all that helpful.

So faust's bussing his partner, but he knows early game pressure doesn't mean much. But maybe got scared when there was a threat of a 4th vote turning up.
Or actually, @faust, can you tell us now why you voted for Dylan in #124?

Trying to sell wagons to people (like I was doing) is good for town, you get interesting responses sometimes.

While all that was happening, there was set-up talk happening and the mayor claiming plan, in which nearly everyone was involved, then Joseph claiming. So I'll look at some of that next, but it is late for me so it can wait for tomorrow.

[infangthief]

So Didds is almost certainly town. Faust and whoever his partner is just trying to get that exile for the win. I mean, even now that faust is caught, he still wants a Didds exile first.

So I am scum, and Didds is town. And why exactly did scum!me decide to exile Dylan tonight? Dylan who said that

All the arguments about Didds being partners with scola were convincing to me, so that should be an autoexile tomorrow

Ok, I will say I've been thinking about this. It is indeed a puzzle. I suppose there was the chance someone would reconsider overnight and maybe you thought the chance of Dylan reconsidering was higher than the chance that I'd cop you? You'd buddied me enough for that perhaps. Let me know if I'm right.

[jotheonah]

The day 1 scolapasta wagon is definitely interesting. fang starts a wagon on scola day 1 and pushes it pretty hard. faust jumps on but jumps off when it starts getting real and fang calls him out on it. If this is bussing by fang it is ballsy af.

It's not so much that faust's move is scummy, but fang's scola-wagon-pushing is really above and beyond what I'd expect from scumbuddies day 1.

and then scola becomes the topic of discussion later on, and again fang is voting for him and accusing him of scumslipping and faust is defending him. And then EFHW votes for fang for making a bad case.

and then a while later scola jumps on fang to make it a wagon.

faust also pushes the Didds wagon and tries to convince MiX to move from EFHW to Didds.

The total omission of EFHW from this list is sus:

As far as exiling WCD, meh. I mean if we want a lurker, I guess. But I've never been a fan of exiling lurkers D1, and WCD at least says she was on vacation and has a reasonable excuse for it. I'm more curious about gkrieg, joth, and swowl. Especially the last two, as they are usually more prolific.

Where you guys at?

Including this, just to give dead MiX a bit of a voice:

Reread scola, wow does he defend Didds a lot. Put them partnered if one flips scum. But otherwise townie. So, null, I guess.

Ok, after reading day 1, fang as town and faust as scum seems much more likely than the other way around based on interactions with scolapasta. EFHW/Didds is less clear cut. I actually disagree with MiX, I think EFHW's interactions with scola, fang, and faust are scummier than Didds'.

Gonna reread days 2 and 3 next.

PPE 2

[jotheonah]

Day 2 is kind of a bust because of the great Joseph distraction. Nothing particularly indicative, though faust did seem ready to end the day really quickly, before Joseph could even offer an explanation.

[jotheonah]

Bold take, scum team is fang, scola, faust, with faust masterminding the 1v1 between the other two and the plan to push to exile outside the 1v1 to get the last misexile.

Ok, that's probably not likely, but from my perspective (with worse PoE than other townies), I would rather exile from the 1v1 than the 50/50 from the other set of 4. For me it's the same odds, but it's actually higher given the possibility of two scum being in scola/fang. If we exile one of those two, worst case it's a 50/50, best case it's 100% scum. Exiling from the other set of 4, worst case it's 25% scum (33% if you are town in that set), best case 50% (66% if you are town in that set [I went to abbreviate this to "66% if " with the first letter of each word of the previous parenthesis, and almost died laughing when I typed it out lol]). Anyway, I suspect exiling from the 1v1 is probably at least as good statistically for us, if not straight up better. At the very least, it's close enough that I don't think we should choose to exile from the set of 4 based solely on odds.

Working on a whole day 3 post, but posting this separately. Isn't this... still possible? If fang and faust are both scum and they set up a SECOND scum v scum 1 v 1 knowing that whoever came out of it still standing would be an IC? I mean, it would explain why faust wants us to vote between EFHW and Didds.

[jotheonah]

Sorry! Dance of done is distracting!

I’m just a VT. Had I been something useful I’d have intimated that when I was gonna get exiled D1.

This is a little interesting. Didds wasn't ever that close to being exiled day 1. Scum tends to think they are closer to being exiled than they really are.

Sorry all for the delay - I had a friend last night ask me last night if I (and some other friends) could help his father pack up his house for moving - if any of you have ever helped a parent pack, you can understand it's an all day affair!

Back home now with weary arms and tired legs and can focus back on the game.

So, I am a Roleblocker. And while I did block fang, it was on N1. (on N2 I blocked faust)

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

I just don't see scum!scola using his claim to set up a 1v1 with his partner. I know that there's a big-brain play there, but it seems much more likely that he'd set up a 1v1 with the town cop, who I had already expressed distrust of. If you're going to take one person out before you go, the cop is a good one.

Here's what I see:

There is at most scum between scola and fang, probably - but not necessarily - exactly one.

There are 3 scum overall (I don't think with this many claimed PRs anyone assumes we're in a 2-scum setup), and 7 players alive. We know Dylan is town. That means we actually have better odds of hitting scum outside of scola/fang. And that way we leave one useful PR alive that might just be able to confirm themselves.

faust goes out of his way to point out that they could both be scum, because he doesn't want fang being an IC if we go with scola.

I promised to reveal my guess for the scum team. It's *drumroll*

EFHW, Didds, scola.

If you want to see a prefectly convenient fakeclaim, look no further than EFHW's vig claim.

I don't think that from a game-design POV, it makes sense to include a vig here. We start at odd parity, and there is very little chance of ever reaching even parity (only if scola is telling the truth and successfully blocks a nightkill). So arguably it's never good to use the vig. But including a vig that won't get used just doesn't make any sense.

Does scum!faust put both his partners on this list? Maybe.

I posit to you: The case why Didds and EFHW are scumpartners!

if this is scum!faust, he's trying to make sure that whichever of his partners gets exiled he'll be set up to go after a townie after their flip.

scola is clearly scum, since he's been sitting on fang's wagon and there hasn't been a hammer.

vote: scola

Two of faust, joth, Didds, fang are scum. I prefer to start rather than join a wagon.

Hard to square this vote with scum!EFHW, based on timing and context. Several other votes would have been defensible and any other vote would have been better.

[jotheonah]

Well, that was an enlightening re-read. I now think faust is definitely scum and should be today's exile.

I think there's a chance fang is his partner and this is honestly a really good ploy, so we have to keep that in mind for tomorrow.

If that's not the case, I'm really torn between Didds and EFHW. They both seem extremely towny on re-read.

But for today, I think it's faust and I'm ready to put a vote down. But I'll wait to hear people's thoughts on my case in deference to a quickhammer possibility.

[EFHW]

You don't really say what is scummy about faust except for the Didds/EFHW team prediction (I agree that was suspicious -- he rolled a drum but then never followed up). He disagreed with my suggestions that fang and scola were partners, so your argument doesn't really hold up re: his calling attention to that possibility. And there was no risk of fang being seen as IC if scola flipped scum.

faust has been my towncore. I'll want to see more if I'm going to consider voting for him. fang has been scummy and town having a sane cop on top of all the other roles is just too much!

Also, you have been making conspiracy theories about faust in recent games. The faust/fang partnership seems like that.