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[faust]

Scola’s role seems like the most powerful. So, if we have to choose between Scola and fang, I’d probably choose fang, but I haven’t thought through that much.

This is a terrible argument. We don't have the luxury to misexile. Who has claimed the stronger role should have absolutely zero bearing on our decision.

[faust]

I posit to you: The case why Didds and EFHW are scumpartners!

Consider, if you will, the following point in time during D1:

Apologies for the weekend. I am kind of sort of caught up. I like efoo best for now. Back in a few hours.

Plan should happen because we need an exile anyways, and why not do it just to be 100% sure. Like decide on a wagon, then have them follow Dylans plan. No reason NOT to do it that way.


Swowl Count as of this post:
Votes for EFHW: MiX, Joth, Swowl (3)
Votes for fang: EFHW, Scolapasta (2)
votes for MiX: Joseph2302 (1)
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief (4)

not voting: Dylan32, WestCoastDidds,
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Vote: EFHW

We have competing wagons for EFHW and Didds (note that Swowl's count here is actually wrong; there's only 3 votes on Didds). What are the reactions of the two of them?

Giving Didds a daypass for that post. It goes right to the heart of the matter re this mayor situation.

EFHW hands out a daypass for nonexistent reasons.

Vote: faust

The more I think about it the more I see him contributing to conversations that distract or derail, and generally doing very little to move us forward. I’m also not fond of the way he’s buddying up to MiX.

Didds tries to start a new wagon, despite previously having expressed a scumread on EFHW.

Both are very hesitant to join on each other's wagons. Why? Because they're scumpartners! Case closed.

[faust]

Here's another argument that isn't likely to convince anyone but myself.

The N1 kill choice was super weird. Like, at the end of D1 it was clear that one of Dylan/Joseph had been lying, and to scum it was clear that both are town. What a perfect situation! Why on earth would you go out and kill either of them? You might easily hit the one who's not a Mayor, thereby confirming the other's identity and robbing yourself of a perfectly good misexile.

This, first of all, makes it clear that I was not involved in this killing decision (part 1 that will convince noone because "WIFOM"). And now from what I can gather fang and me see pretty much eye to eye on many theory questions, so I would expect him to come to the same conclusion - which implies he's not scum either. With joth I'm less sure, but the people I clash most with on theory question are definitely the ones I can most see make that choice, and that's exactly EFHW, Didds, scolapasta.

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote: faust

The more I think about it the more I see him contributing to conversations that distract or derail, and generally doing very little to move us forward. I’m also not fond of the way he’s buddying up to MiX.

Didds tries to start a new wagon, despite previously having expressed a scumread on EFHW.

Ha! I wasn’t trying to start a new wagon. I was just annoyed that you were being bossy, and at that point an EFHW wagon wasn’t happening.

[faust]

Vote: faust

The more I think about it the more I see him contributing to conversations that distract or derail, and generally doing very little to move us forward. I’m also not fond of the way he’s buddying up to MiX.

Didds tries to start a new wagon, despite previously having expressed a scumread on EFHW.

Ha! I wasn’t trying to start a new wagon. I was just annoyed that you were being bossy, and at that point an EFHW wagon wasn’t happening.

EFHW was the biggest wagon at the point of your vote lol.

[faust]

Vote: faust

The more I think about it the more I see him contributing to conversations that distract or derail, and generally doing very little to move us forward. I’m also not fond of the way he’s buddying up to MiX.

Didds tries to start a new wagon, despite previously having expressed a scumread on EFHW.

Ha! I wasn’t trying to start a new wagon. I was just annoyed that you were being bossy, and at that point an EFHW wagon wasn’t happening.

EFHW was the biggest wagon at the point of your vote lol.

(ok tied with fang, but still)

[jotheonah]

alright, I'm coming around to trusting faust here. I still disagree a bit with him on fang vs scola, but I'm starting to see the wisdom of looking elsewhere.

[faust]

Let's play "how people react to Joseph's lie". Note that scum knows that Joseph is town.

So... isn't Joseph just scum? Not voting yet in case I mathed wrong. But I think we have an  IC mayor and an almost-definite scum.

Definitely Joseph warrants a vote.

Reaction from conf!town.

Vote: Joseph

Reaction from conf!town.

Hi hi hi!

The odds of there being two mayors seems absurdly low, right? The smart money seems like - mayor, one liar.

I’m wasn’t sure why Joseph would claim, but now realize that he successfully outed the mayor with no problem.

There could be two mayors and a drunk on the wagon.

There exists a non-zero probability that scum was betting on a Modified Bodyguard to exist and tried to kill scumpartner!Dylan, I suppose. Seems like quite a stretch though.

intent to hammer

Sorry, late night last night (went to see Hamilton musical - which was awesome).

Yeah, i agree with Faust, mixing up VT with mayor makes little sense.   But then again, neither does scum making this claim - having to know they'd be caught today. So 🤷‍♂️. I just don't get it either way.

For the record, I think (4) is most likely by a long chalk. With (2) being distant second. Joseph is saying it's (1).

PPE 1

Both (4) and (2) being referred to here are options where Joseph is scum.

Can you see a pattern?

[scolapasta]

So from my side of things the math is much easier - 100% fang is lying and given there's no good town reason for it, that's a much better place for my vote than trying to suss out who of the other 4 non Dylans are scum.

Vote: fang

I'd rather not say much more about my other reads, so scum has less info in trying to figure out who I'd block tonight.

[EFHW]

I haven't read everything yet, but you must know I would have a better fakeclaim than vig! There isn't even a tracker, which makes vig a good fakeclaim sometimes. The smart scum claim here is VT.

From my rereading (looking for someone to maybe vig), I settled on faust as town. And my strongest suspicion was on scola. I seriously considered Didds, but like someone said, she is pretty free in expressing her OMGUS etc., and scum!Didds would tend to be more careful. I think fang and scola could be partners.

[EFHW]

...
Both are very hesitant to join on each other's wagons. Why? Because they're scumpartners! Case closed.

I would never hand you such a good case! Give me some credit!

[EFHW]

Of the claims, EFHW is the most head-scratching to me. It has no utility and no verifiability. ... But EFHW over all of those.

If scum!Me gave a fakeclaim that had no verifiability and no utility, that would indeed be head-scratching. My doing it as town is not my choice - I am totally against lying as town.

It does seem a bit OP that we would have a vig and all these other roles, especially when scum doesn't have much.  We'll have to ask math about that later. We don't know yet which of the 10,000 roles that have been claimed are legit, but cop + vig + bodyguard + mayor + rolecop + roleblocker seems like 2 too many roles. From my perspective, the two unverified are the cop and roleblocker. fang and scola have been fighting tooth and nail. Could it be an act? fang's case on scola was super-flimsy and scola has been relying primarily on OMGUS for his case. I'll reread them.

[faust]

Eh, I don't see fang and scola as partners at all. What is the benefit? One gets exiled and then... the other one is going to have a hard time explaining why they didn't die the next night.

Plus if they wanted to turn it into a 1v1, fang would have just claimed a result on scola.

[jotheonah]

I dislike all this setup/mod second-guessing. Many times I've run a setup and been informed afterward that everyone but me thinks it's unbalanced. We don't know anything about what math considers balanced, about the affect he expects things like unknown cop sanity to have on balance, or about the exact breakdown of scum powers. I'm unlikely to be swayed by any case that starts with "math wouldn't".

[EFHW]

Eh, I don't see fang and scola as partners at all. What is the benefit? One gets exiled and then... the other one is going to have a hard time explaining why they didn't die the next night.

Plus if they wanted to turn it into a 1v1, fang would have just claimed a result on scola.

Their both relatively new to the game. I could see them wanting to try it out. Details like you are bringing up aren't conclusive at all. When I have a chance I'll see if I can find more evidence, or counter-evidence.

[EFHW]

*They're

[WestCoastDidds]

Scola’s role seems like the most powerful. So, if we have to choose between Scola and fang, I’d probably choose fang, but I haven’t thought through that much.

This is a terrible argument. We don't have the luxury to misexile. Who has claimed the stronger role should have absolutely zero bearing on our decision.

It's not an argument. It's a thought.

[EFHW]

Scola’s role seems like the most powerful. So, if we have to choose between Scola and fang, I’d probably choose fang, but I haven’t thought through that much.

This is a terrible argument. We don't have the luxury to misexile. Who has claimed the stronger role should have absolutely zero bearing on our decision.

It's not an argument. It's a thought.

Yeah, don't be mean to my partner!   

[Dylan32]

Bold take, scum team is fang, scola, faust, with faust masterminding the 1v1 between the other two and the plan to push to exile outside the 1v1 to get the last misexile.

Ok, that's probably not likely, but from my perspective (with worse PoE than other townies), I would rather exile from the 1v1 than the 50/50 from the other set of 4. For me it's the same odds, but it's actually higher given the possibility of two scum being in scola/fang. If we exile one of those two, worst case it's a 50/50, best case it's 100% scum. Exiling from the other set of 4, worst case it's 25% scum (33% if you are town in that set), best case 50% (66% if you are town in that set [I went to abbreviate this to "66% if " with the first letter of each word of the previous parenthesis, and almost died laughing when I typed it out lol]). Anyway, I suspect exiling from the 1v1 is probably at least as good statistically for us, if not straight up better. At the very least, it's close enough that I don't think we should choose to exile from the set of 4 based solely on odds.

[Dylan32]

I dislike all this setup/mod second-guessing. Many times I've run a setup and been informed afterward that everyone but me thinks it's unbalanced. We don't know anything about what math considers balanced, about the affect he expects things like unknown cop sanity to have on balance, or about the exact breakdown of scum powers. I'm unlikely to be swayed by any case that starts with "math wouldn't".

This is fair, and I've been consciously trying to be open-minded about possibilities of what might be in the game, with the exception of assuming not two mayors earlier, which wasn't primarily balance based in my mind and more just would any mod ever do that in a non-bastard game kind of thing.

That said, I do think cop+rolecop is just less likely than rolecop+roleblocker, no matter who the mod is, as long as the mod has played like any amount of mafia in a format like this before.

[Dylan32]

Here's another argument that isn't likely to convince anyone but myself.

The N1 kill choice was super weird. Like, at the end of D1 it was clear that one of Dylan/Joseph had been lying, and to scum it was clear that both are town. What a perfect situation! Why on earth would you go out and kill either of them? You might easily hit the one who's not a Mayor, thereby confirming the other's identity and robbing yourself of a perfectly good misexile.

This, first of all, makes it clear that I was not involved in this killing decision (part 1 that will convince noone because "WIFOM"). And now from what I can gather fang and me see pretty much eye to eye on many theory questions, so I would expect him to come to the same conclusion - which implies he's not scum either. With joth I'm less sure, but the people I clash most with on theory question are definitely the ones I can most see make that choice, and that's exactly EFHW, Didds, scolapasta.

You are correct regarding the WIFOM, but that point is something I had already considered before you brought it up and was a big part of why I had lessened my suspicion of you (moved you to null rather than scummy at least), but now that you point it out and demonstrate you are aware of this it reduces how much faith I can put into that somewhat...

[Dylan32]

Ugh, I want to talk myself into scumreading faust because I can totally see this being a scum!faust game with the way he's played, but no matter how I slice it I can't get myself to justify pushing for his exile today, and if we don't get it right now it doesn't matter.

I suspect faust has just fallen for townreading based on agreement rather than actual reads or game state, because for town every human everywhere regarding everything it's a lot easier to trust someone you agree with than someone with whom you disagree or are arguing with. The only legitimate reason I can see for going scola over fang in this 1v1 is that as far as I can tell, fang did play the cop exactly the way I would expect someone to play a cop of unknown sanity in the situation we had D1. Target someone who's alignment is very likely to be confirmed one way or the other the next day at the latest without saying anything about the result until after you know your sanity and hopefully have another result. The weird thing as far as targeting choices goes (besides why shoot me N1 given the apparent lie) is why scola would have blocked fang N1 instead of one of the two people seemingly guaranteed to have scum in it. So I guess there is a case to be made for scumola.

[faust]

I suspect faust has just fallen for townreading based on agreement rather than actual reads or game state

This is a bit insulting.

[faust]

well I guess either I'm wrong or we lose... I want to say I hope I'm wrong, but that would not be entirely accurate 

Vote: Didds

at least want to do this before we're through.

[faust]

That said, I do think cop+rolecop is just less likely than rolecop+roleblocker, no matter who the mod is, as long as the mod has played like any amount of mafia in a format like this before.

I disagree. Maybe my opinion as an experienced mod holds some weight in the matter.