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[SpaceAnemone]

The other role in the watcher - slot is investigation immune, how likely would mafia take watcher over that? Is there any way scum could know about Qvist using his role the night he did unless they had a watcher?

Just reading back through people's claims to answer Teproc's question in more detail (though I did at least already give opinions on claims back at #1463), and noticed this.

Eevee, are you suggesting that scum knew about the Protector of the Island thing already, and that somehow means that I fed them info? In addition to not being scum, I had nowhere near enough information to put it together, because all I had to go on at the time was that two people had targeted Galz and there'd been no NK. So your comment here confuses me a lot in retrospect.

[SpaceAnemone]

The other role in the watcher - slot is investigation immune, how likely would mafia take watcher over that?

Also, this part of the quote is nice defending of me on your part, after you sounded like you were accusing me before.. however, it's provably wrong since I took watcher as scum the first time round.

[Teproc]

The other role in the watcher - slot is investigation immune, how likely would mafia take watcher over that?

Also, this part of the quote is nice defending of me on your part, after you sounded like you were accusing me before.. however, it's provably wrong since I took watcher as scum the first time round.

About that: did you factor that in to your decision to go for Watcher again, in a very similar spot ?

Also, I'm curious what people think about bidding strategies for scum. I'm rethinking my "lynch among VTs" stance for a "lynch among Lost numbers bid" currently, as I think it's very likely that two of the people claiming t have bid Lost numbers are scum. This is true if we assume the scumteam as a whole bid on 3 Lost numbers, and those would be {DatSwan, Galz, Space}.

[Galzria]

Also note that we now know that we MUST either A) Lynch Scum, or B) Lynch the Poisoned Player. If we do neither we lose as there is no more potential protection.

e is potentially a 1-Shot Roleblocker and there is not Strongman, so not quite. Not that it matters.

You agree we should lynch within the VTs, but who do you think it should be ?

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

DatSwan bid and won Roleblocker last game with a much worse bid as scum. I could absolutely see him going for it again. I'll need to reread from a "He's scum, what supports it" perspective, but he would make a good RB candidate. I doubt very much that he beat everybody to bid #1, although DO note that he bid 4 last time. So he COULD easily be the Poisoner.

RR... man. I apparently broke him D2, when he wrote a book self arguing. At this point I'm just completely lost on what to think of him. But... I guess end of the day, like Faust, he doesn't read his normal townie self to me. So.

That probably wasn't helpful?

Let's look at who amongst us could reasonably be #1:

I don't think there's a strong argument for me being #1: Unless scum is running a triple switch, then me flipping with Iguana doesn't make sense. What would Iguana have bid on from 4 that he got VT if he knew I bid 1 and got Poisoner?

DatSwan could be with a bid of #4, his bid from last game.

RR could - He wasn't in last game so could've bid anywhere.

Faust bid 23. He would've needed to see the draft results from last game and guess that he could reasonably improve by going 4/8. Note that his claimed bid choice of 3 makes far more sense - he would've been draft #2 in the previous reroll (prior to SM mechanics). So I doubt he's #1.

On that note, I want to believe Space poisoned me last night - but I think that's paranoia. Space also doesn't make sense for bid #1 unless scum is running a triple switch.

Let's look at how bids changed from one game to the other:

Lost Numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

DatSwan: 4 (15th) -> 23 (10). Had bids been exactly the same as the first game, this offers no potential bid improvement.

Faust: 23 (10th) -> 3 (15th). Had this been exactly the same as the first game, he would've imported to #2. This is logical from Faust.

Galz: 7 (8th) -> 42 (4th). Yadda yadda... I would've improved to #2.

RR: No info.

All this adds up to, prior to reads, I think the best lynch is probably:

Swan

With RR being the most random, and Faust (from a numbers perspective) being the worst (behind me, who I think is least likely to be Poisoner (although you could argue that I'm a good candidate for RB))

[SpaceAnemone]

I took watcher as scum the first time round.

About that: did you factor that in to your decision to go for Watcher again, in a very similar spot ?

Not overly much. I know it's the best role for me to play as town (information gathering, without the need to have spot-on reads), and I knew that when I was scum too.

[Eevee]

The other role in the watcher - slot is investigation immune, how likely would mafia take watcher over that? Is there any way scum could know about Qvist using his role the night he did unless they had a watcher?

Just reading back through people's claims to answer Teproc's question in more detail (though I did at least already give opinions on claims back at #1463), and noticed this.

Eevee, are you suggesting that scum knew about the Protector of the Island thing already, and that somehow means that I fed them info? In addition to not being scum, I had nowhere near enough information to put it together, because all I had to go on at the time was that two people had targeted Galz and there'd been no NK. So your comment here confuses me a lot in retrospect.

I was just wondering out loud (via text) hot towny your claim was, what the different possibilities were.

[SpaceAnemone]

On that note, I want to believe Space poisoned me last night - but I think that's paranoia. Space also doesn't make sense for bid #1 unless scum is running a triple switch.

If I'd been a poisoner, I couldn't know you'd been targeted by Qvist before Eevee announced him as the PotI, so you're safe there :-)

Let's look at how bids changed from one game to the other:

I moved my bid to a higher number specifically because I assumed everyone would analyse the first game's bidding patterns and skew toward bidding lower Lost numbers, since I did really well with #8 the first time round. I think we'd have to play a lot of times before it's safe to assume that the bid distribution will be more or less fixed.

Argh.. it's almost 1am already and I need to get to bed. More posting tomorrow I hope.

[Swowl]

Also note that we now know that we MUST either A) Lynch Scum, or B) Lynch the Poisoned Player. If we do neither we lose as there is no more potential protection.

e is potentially a 1-Shot Roleblocker and there is not Strongman, so not quite. Not that it matters.

You agree we should lynch within the VTs, but who do you think it should be ?

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

DatSwan bid and won Roleblocker last game with a much worse bid as scum. I could absolutely see him going for it again. I'll need to reread from a "He's scum, what supports it" perspective, but he would make a good RB candidate. I doubt very much that he beat everybody to bid #1, although DO note that he bid 4 last time. So he COULD easily be the Poisoner.

RR... man. I apparently broke him D2, when he wrote a book self arguing. At this point I'm just completely lost on what to think of him. But... I guess end of the day, like Faust, he doesn't read his normal townie self to me. So.

That probably wasn't helpful?

Let's look at who amongst us could reasonably be #1:

I don't think there's a strong argument for me being #1: Unless scum is running a triple switch, then me flipping with Iguana doesn't make sense. What would Iguana have bid on from 4 that he got VT if he knew I bid 1 and got Poisoner?

DatSwan could be with a bid of #4, his bid from last game.

RR could - He wasn't in last game so could've bid anywhere.

Faust bid 23. He would've needed to see the draft results from last game and guess that he could reasonably improve by going 4/8. Note that his claimed bid choice of 3 makes far more sense - he would've been draft #2 in the previous reroll (prior to SM mechanics). So I doubt he's #1.

On that note, I want to believe Space poisoned me last night - but I think that's paranoia. Space also doesn't make sense for bid #1 unless scum is running a triple switch.

Let's look at how bids changed from one game to the other:

Lost Numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

DatSwan: 4 (15th) -> 23 (10). Had bids been exactly the same as the first game, this offers no potential bid improvement.

Faust: 23 (10th) -> 3 (15th). Had this been exactly the same as the first game, he would've imported to #2. This is logical from Faust.

Galz: 7 (8th) -> 42 (4th). Yadda yadda... I would've improved to #2.

RR: No info.

All this adds up to, prior to reads, I think the best lynch is probably:

Swan

With RR being the most random, and Faust (from a numbers perspective) being the worst (behind me, who I think is least likely to be Poisoner (although you could argue that I'm a good candidate for RB))

I don't get it. The skum thread is released from the re roll. I am in there stating I thought 4 and 8 should be bid over based on the ideal that we need to blanket the top numbers as a team. I also have never done this with any of the people before here. I got Draft 15... so that didn't work. In a world where I make the same decisions in a different game for some reason, even if I were skum... why would I suggest another losing strategy this time around?

Furthermore, my thought process on 23 was based EXACTLY on the opposite of your inference. I bid 4 last time and got really really bad placement. This time around I did not have team mates to help me with choices either, so I picked what I thought to be safe - 23. I figured that the way it was picked in the last game was pretty much the most it could be and even then it was 2 spots better then where I had ended up before.

There needs to be a better argument here. I have played this pretty straight forward the entire game. If I had been first in the claim order would it of made a difference in my bid? Should of I lied about my claim to create a smaller lynch pool or whatever? Logic seems like it was drawn up prior to the claims at all with the idea in mind that "player x bid number y so this happens to them". Which kind of sounds too pre meditated to be true.

[Swowl]

Also note that we now know that we MUST either A) Lynch Scum, or B) Lynch the Poisoned Player. If we do neither we lose as there is no more potential protection.

e is potentially a 1-Shot Roleblocker and there is not Strongman, so not quite. Not that it matters.

You agree we should lynch within the VTs, but who do you think it should be ?

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

DatSwan bid and won Roleblocker last game with a much worse bid as scum. I could absolutely see him going for it again. I'll need to reread from a "He's scum, what supports it" perspective, but he would make a good RB candidate. I doubt very much that he beat everybody to bid #1, although DO note that he bid 4 last time. So he COULD easily be the Poisoner.

RR... man. I apparently broke him D2, when he wrote a book self arguing. At this point I'm just completely lost on what to think of him. But... I guess end of the day, like Faust, he doesn't read his normal townie self to me. So.

That probably wasn't helpful?

Let's look at who amongst us could reasonably be #1:

I don't think there's a strong argument for me being #1: Unless scum is running a triple switch, then me flipping with Iguana doesn't make sense. What would Iguana have bid on from 4 that he got VT if he knew I bid 1 and got Poisoner?

DatSwan could be with a bid of #4, his bid from last game.

RR could - He wasn't in last game so could've bid anywhere.

Faust bid 23. He would've needed to see the draft results from last game and guess that he could reasonably improve by going 4/8. Note that his claimed bid choice of 3 makes far more sense - he would've been draft #2 in the previous reroll (prior to SM mechanics). So I doubt he's #1.

On that note, I want to believe Space poisoned me last night - but I think that's paranoia. Space also doesn't make sense for bid #1 unless scum is running a triple switch.

Let's look at how bids changed from one game to the other:

Lost Numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

DatSwan: 4 (15th) -> 23 (10). Had bids been exactly the same as the first game, this offers no potential bid improvement.

Faust: 23 (10th) -> 3 (15th). Had this been exactly the same as the first game, he would've imported to #2. This is logical from Faust.

Galz: 7 (8th) -> 42 (4th). Yadda yadda... I would've improved to #2.

RR: No info.

All this adds up to, prior to reads, I think the best lynch is probably:

Swan

With RR being the most random, and Faust (from a numbers perspective) being the worst (behind me, who I think is least likely to be Poisoner (although you could argue that I'm a good candidate for RB))

I don't get it. The skum thread is released from the re roll. I am in there stating I thought 4 and 8 should be bid over based on the ideal that we need to blanket the top numbers as a team. I also have never done this with any of the people before here. I got Draft 15... so that didn't work. In a world where I make the same decisions in a different game for some reason, even if I were skum... why would I suggest another losing strategy this time around?

Furthermore, my thought process on 23 was based EXACTLY on the opposite of your inference. I bid 4 last time and got really really bad placement. This time around I did not have team mates to help me with choices either, so I picked what I thought to be safe - 23. I figured that the way it was picked in the last game was pretty much the most it could be and even then it was 2 spots better then where I had ended up before.

There needs to be a better argument here. I have played this pretty straight forward the entire game. If I had been first in the claim order would it of made a difference in my bid? Should of I lied about my claim to create a smaller lynch pool or whatever? Logic seems like it was drawn up prior to the claims at all with the idea in mind that "player x bid number y so this happens to them". Which kind of sounds too pre meditated to be true.

Want to re-itterate on the last line here - when I say "too pre mediated to be true", I don't mean that I think Galz is skummy for it, or at least I don't think he is Skum should we say. I just the approach is silly. Obviously, everyone would say that in my situation whether skum or town yeah yeah I get it. But for real... based on this logic the skummiest person here IMO that is in the lynch pool is removed from play simply because he wasn't in before the re roll...

I don't know how to help in this situation. I don't want to fight back with an alternative suggested lynch because I feel like it will fuel the fire. Normally as VT I would give zero shits, but if I lynch, then I will flip VT. And when I flip VT, it is gonna put us in a awkward spot because there is really nothing to be learned from me so far. I am an open book... the problem is my book contains like 3 pieces of information and that is that I am a VT that bid 23, got 10, tried for barracks and failed.

[Galzria]

So your thought to improve was to go from the most popular choice to the second most popular choice?

Whether or not taking 4 or 8 worked out for scum last game, they DID bid those again this game and they DID work out. As Space noted, they were fine with going 8 last game even though the risk of being bumped was there. Still a decent chance to get a PR (as you did with 4). Further, it's not unreasonable to expect people to bail off 4 after seeing the results from last game.

[Swowl]

So your thought to improve was to go from the most popular choice to the second most popular choice?

Whether or not taking 4 or 8 worked out for scum last game, they DID bid those again this game and they DID work out. As Space noted, they were fine with going 8 last game even though the risk of being bumped was there. Still a decent chance to get a PR (as you did with 4). Further, it's not unreasonable to expect people to bail off 4 after seeing the results from last game.

I addressed fairly clearly... "I bid 23 because I have not played a lot with you lot and I did not have a team to help me like I did when I was skum prior to the re roll". "I thought 23 was a safe middle ground play etc..".

[Swowl]

Also - I am trying to imagine how I, or anyone, would play my spot here as skum...

If I were skum I would know the draft/bids/roles or whatever of all my little skum bretheren, I would know what was in the Barracks, I would know the general flip info that everyone else knows from deaths so far, and whatever the hell else might be possible in the situation. I also would of gotten to know info on everyone that claimed before me, as well as knowing that Qivst is sitting as one of the 3 people behind me as PotI.

The obvious point of claim is to narrow the lynch pool. With all of that info, why in the world wouldn't I of used all the information I had to claim out some nonsense I knew no one could prove wrong? Why would I choose to put myself in the mix of people to get lynched when I did not need to?
I wouldn't. No one would because there is no upside to not taking that advantage.

[Qvist]

10. DatSwan (23)
11. ? (23)
12. ? (5)
13. Eevee (5)

Not sure about you, but that does not work out, does it?

[Qvist]

Anyway, I bid 5 and got position #12.
I didn't want to be VT and as most good roles are probably gone I went for Protector of the Island and it worked out.
And yes I used it after LL was dead as I figured that I wouldn't accidently save the Smoke Monster or one of the Others now, and also saving the power isn't worth it as it isn't a losing proposition anymore.

[Galzria]

10. DatSwan (23)
11. ???? (23)
12. ???? (5)
13. Eevee (5)

Not sure about you, but that does not work out, does it?

Why wouldn't it? Am I missing something? A Lost Double (23) is before a non-lost Double (5)

[Qvist]

Oh okay, sorry, yeah. Forgot about that detail.

[Galzria]

So... I trust Qvist to be smart enough to figure all this out anyway, but we have (purely bids here)

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or : Poisioner
2. ?????? (8 or 15)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. ???? (52 to 72)
9. e (73): JoaT
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. ???? (23)
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. ??? (3)
17. ??? (3)

Unclaimed bids:
Qvist
gkrieg
chairs
WW
IDPTG
Jimmm

[Galzria]

So... I trust Qvist to be smart enough to figure all this out anyway, but we have (purely bids here)

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or 8): Poisioner
2. ?????? (8 or 15)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. ???? (52 to 72)
9. e (73): JoaT
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. ???? (23)
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. ??? (3)
17. ??? (3)

Unclaimed bids:
gkrieg - Draft #11 or #8: Redirector
chairs - ????: VT
WW - ????: VT
IDPTG - ????: VT
Jimmm - Probably Draft #2: 2nd Day IC

[Galzria]

Obv I'm guessing on Gkrieg and Jimmm, but I suspect I'm correct for both.

[Qvist]

What are your thoughts on DatSwan going for Barracks and claiming to fail?
I have my doubts anyone with a single digit position would go for it.

[Qvist]

Especially as only #2 and #8 are left. #2 seems like impossible, leaving only #8

[Galzria]

What are your thoughts on DatSwan going for Barracks and claiming to fail?
I have my doubts anyone with a single digit position would go for it.

Sorry, my thing above wasn't clear:

e took Barracks ahead of DatSwan, picking JoaT

[Qvist]

Oh, I overread that part in e's claim.

[Qvist]

I think faust is still the best target.
faust was very evasive and his claim to have chosen Redirector in very late position seems very scummy.

[Swowl]

So... I trust Qvist to be smart enough to figure all this out anyway, but we have (purely bids here)

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or 8): Poisioner
2. ?????? (8 or 15)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. ???? (52 to 72)
9. e (73): JoaT
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. ???? (23)
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. ??? (3)
17. ??? (3)

Unclaimed bids:
gkrieg - Draft #11 or #8: Redirector
chairs - ????: VT
WW - ????: VT
IDPTG - ????: VT
Jimmm - Probably Draft #2: 2nd Day IC

Error here. Chairs is not VT. He flipped N3 Forensic. Not a huge deal but it should be noted in case it helps us isolate a lie later.