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[Qvist]

I would guess he is confident to around 96%

[IDontPlayThisGame]

I would guess he is confident to around 96%

Because 100 - 4 = 96?

[Qvist]

yes of course. If he said "there is 0% chance that he is town" he would be 100% certain right?

[faust]

There's always a chance that my assumptions are wrong. Effectively I'd give Space being town a maybe 25 % chance.

[faust]

Turns out I may not answer most of these questions.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

yes of course. If he said "there is 0% chance that he is town" he would be 100% certain right?

No. There's a difference between a result and confidence in that result.

[Witherweaver]

Why not? If he is that confident about space being not town...
Sorry this is only my third game, so please clarify why.

If Faust were scum and this were all some kind of stunt, what would the upside be?  To get one mislynch in?  Random lynching is more likely to mislynch than not, so it's the de facto default.

[Qvist]

Well that is how I would formulate it. Anyway, I probably shouldn't speak for other people.

Why not? If he is that confident about space being not town...
Sorry this is only my third game, so please clarify why.

If Faust were scum and this were all some kind of stunt, what would the upside be?  To get one mislynch in?  Random lynching is more likely to mislynch than not, so it's the de facto default.

Okay, makes sense. Thank you.

[Galzria]

Why not? If he is that confident about space being not town...
Sorry this is only my third game, so please clarify why.

If Faust were scum and this were all some kind of stunt, what would the upside be?  To get one mislynch in?  Random lynching is more likely to mislynch than not, so it's the de facto default.

It wouldn't be any random mislynch though - it would be on a player that he (now) knows (And may have before / could have guessed at) has a PR. That's potentially better than a random VT mislynch. And because he's never had to reveal anything (and can't/won't) going forward he could easily argue against his lynch tomorrow. He's not actually basing his read of Space on results after all - just on his own "speculation".

I'm not convinced he's scum mind you - and he's definitely not getting lynched D1. But I won't write the possibility off.

[Witherweaver]

Well that's a good point.  I guess scum would want to lynch players higher in the draft. 

[Eevee]

Just to pull back a little, are we know talking about either lynching the first or the second player from the draft order? The townside seems like a high chance of a town pr.

[LaLight]

Just to pull back a little, are we know talking about either lynching the first or the second player from the draft order? The townside seems like a high chance of a town pr.

I totally agree. We should lynch someone from the middle.

[ashersky]

Just to pull back a little, are we know talking about either lynching the first or the second player from the draft order? The townside seems like a high chance of a town pr.

I totally agree. We should lynch someone from the middle.

We should lynch who we think is scum.  We shouldn't base our decisions based on draft order.

I have a follow-up line I need to run by the mod.

[Witherweaver]

Just to pull back a little, are we know talking about either lynching the first or the second player from the draft order? The townside seems like a high chance of a town pr.

I totally agree. We should lynch someone from the middle.

We should lynch who we think is scum.  We shouldn't base our decisions based on draft order.

I have a follow-up line I need to run by the mod.

Agreed.

[ashersky]

Just to pull back a little, are we know talking about either lynching the first or the second player from the draft order? The townside seems like a high chance of a town pr.

I totally agree. We should lynch someone from the middle.

We should lynch who we think is scum.  We shouldn't base our decisions based on draft order.

I have a follow-up line I need to run by the mod.

Approved:

You can just as easy argue that we should lynch from those with the best draft order position because scum had time to discuss and bid optimally.

[gkrieg13]

That was my whole point in claiming.  I think scum are much more likely to have higher positions in the draft (meaning lower number, or better), because they were able to work with each other to not collide.

[Witherweaver]

That was my whole point in claiming.  I think scum are much more likely to have higher positions in the draft (meaning lower number, or better), because they were able to work with each other to not collide.

This could have been predicted (or designed), though.

[gkrieg13]

In that case, then the people proposing the order claim are more likely to be scum right?

[Robz888]

Here at Dharma, we are firmly committed to your satisfaction. The rules change regarding the numbers is proving more problematic than anticipated as we try to sort out what is and isn't okay for discussion.

Unfortunately, the only alternative is to drop the jughead down the shaft of the Swan station. This will restart the game--we will re-roll alignment, Candidates, everything. You will pick new numbers, receive new bid orders, and we will proceed as before, except the Smoke Monster's draft position will not be affected by how many Lost numbers were chosen. This will remove the need to place a posting restriction on this conversation.

I would like everyone to weigh in on this matter in their QTs. Mafia may do so in the mafia QT.

This thread will be locked until I've heard from everyone.

Thank you, and namaste.

[Robz888]

Enough people have signaled they think we should re-roll that that's what we were are going to do.

Having dropped the hydrogen bomb down the hatch, you all entered a flash sideways universe where you are patients at Santa Rosa Mental Health Hospital. You play connect four and mutter about the numbers all day.

Please re-confirm your participation in your individual QTs, which you will retain. As soon as everyone confirms, we will send out new alignment info and you can pick numbers. We are retaining all the rules from the previous version, except that number choices will not affect the Smoke Monster.

Starting over is no fun, but better now than later. Let's just consider this as a test run. As a fictitious island deity once said, "It only ends once, anything before that is just progress."

[mcmcsalot]

"It only ends once, anything before that is just progress."

Yes progress, we will have to try harder if we are going to keep him in check.

In a flash of light you are overcome by the thoughts and memories of your fellow islanders.

Numbers Chosen for Draft
1) Gkrieg: 9
2) Space: 8
3) Ashersky: 14
4) Witherweaver: 17
5) Archetype: 22
6) Jim: 15
7) TWM: 15
8) Galzria: 7
9) Teproc: 7
10) Faust: 23
11) Qvist: 23
12) 2.7: 23
13) IDP: 4
14) Lalight: 4
15) Datswan: 4
16) Eevee: 4
17) O: 4

Roles Bid On
The Hydra (Station One)
Jailkeeper
Godfather
 
The Arrow (Station Two)
Strongman (Others and SM only)
Gunsmith
 
The Swan (Station Three)
Masons (Town only) {IDontPlayThisGame #13}
Bomb {ashersky #3}
 
The Flame (Station Four)
Role Cop
1-Shot Day Vigilante {The_Wine_Merchant #7}
 
The Pearl (Station Five)
Watcher {SpaceAnemone #2}
Investigation Immune
 
The Orchid (Station Six)
2-Shot Redirector
Summon “Mother” (SM only) {gkrieg #1}
 
The Staff (Station Seven)
Doctor {Qvist #11}
1-Shot Kill Proof {Teproc #9} {Faust #10}
 
The Looking Glass (Station Eight)
Roleblocker {DatSwan #15}
Bodyguard

The Tempest (Station Nine)
Poisoner {Witherweaver #4}{Archetype #5} {Galzria #8}{2.71828..... #12}
Ninja (Others and SM only)
 
The Lamp Post (Station Ten)
Double Shot Candidate Cop
Tracker {Jimmmmm #6} {Lalight #14} {Eevee #16}
 
The Statue of Tawret
Protector of the Island
JOAT (1-shot Ninja, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Roleblocker)
 
The Bamboo Forest
Last Recruit {O #17}
Day 2 Innocent Child (Town only)

The Cabin
1-Shot Disabler
Night 3 Forensic Scientist
 
The Dharma Initiative Barracks
Random
Random
Random

I see you found your loophole. I'm going to break your game and cause you to look silly kill you. Someone will take my place, and another, and another...

The Candidates
17. O
3. ashersky
6. Jimmmmm
9. Teproc
8. Galzria
7. The_Wine_Merchant

[iguanaiguana]

/sub in

Missed this the first time around.

[Robz888]

Here is the new thread for this game: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=17587.0

[mcmcsalot]

All the secrets of that island will be revealed in time, until then you must have faith.

Here are the links to the candidates, other, and smokemonster/mother qt's as technically the players within them have more knowledge that the rest of you.

Candidates https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/cC96kuTCSqj9K
Others https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/fAzTPfEP5m2Bi
SM/Mother https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/Zi3kqGUysaEU