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[schadd]

Vote Count 4.1

Not voting (6): The_Wine_Merchant, ashersky, Awaclus, EFHW, mcmcsalot, gkrieg13


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 ends Feb. 3rd.

[gkrieg13]

I haven't defended mcmc in a long time. I misread RR, twice. It's true. I feel bad about it. But he was going to get lynched. Sticking my neck out for him would not be good scum play.

Well he hasn't really been scumread by town!people in a long time.

Oh and at MYLO, it is always good scum play to defend your partners.  RR was not going to get lynched until I put my case out on him.  Ash even started the day out going for TWM.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

All right. First up is a specific reread of RR.

People he voted for: Day1: (Jake, EFHW as early votes), Jake again. Day2: Jake. Day3: Note vote

People voting for him (people dead in parenthesis): Day1- RSV votes, TWM, (Robz, faust) Day2 -  (faust) TWM, (faust, Jake, Joseph), TWM, (faust), gkrieg, (Jake), TWM, (Joseph) TWM (Jake) Day3 - gkrieg, EFHW, ashersky, TWM, (Joseph), Awaclus

Final vote: gkrieg13, ashersky, The_Wine_Merchant, Joseph2302, Awaclus

Interesting posts: #454 (says one of EFHW, Robz and Awaclus is scum) but then on #542 talks about Jake's "big three" (Robz, gkrieg and EFHW) saying that the first two are ok, but that EFHW is just randomly thrown in. Makes it look like he forgot that he had included EFHW earlier (although 454 wasn't his "big three" the previous post was just about largerish wagons). #539 sides with mcmc on the not giving a big three. Then wasn't awake for the deadline vote. Skipping all the back and forth. Day2 there wasn't a whole lot there from RR himself. Didn't do much except not post and then come and defend himself and talk with Jake. #1669 calls scum team as gkrieg/TWM/x. #1815 says EFHW can't be scum.

More about RR: Was almost a wagon late Day1 - faust votes, gkrieg shot it down pretty quickly, then Robz. But actually the real tide was just the time on the clock and calamatis voting for Robz. Was obviously the alternate Day2 lynch. I think I posted this before, but EFHW and awaclus were the two who kept the RR wagon from getting any bigger than faust, Jake, Joseph and me. mcmcsalot to an extent as well. And gkrieg and ash were just not around.

So from this I would say EFHW comes out the most likely to be mafia. But post #1815 and EFHW's not voting for RR and then voting for RR and then not voting for RR again looks maybe a little too obvious?

[EFHW]

TWM, you keep allying yourself with gkrieg as if he is confirmed town.  He isn't, and the odds of his being godfather are too big to just wave away as insignficant.

If we assume ashersky is town, there is a 20% chance gkrieg is the godfather.  If we assume Awaclus as well, then 25%.  If you are town, take yourself out and it's 33%.

[gkrieg13]

TWM, you keep allying yourself with gkrieg as if he is confirmed town.  He isn't, and the odds of his being godfather are too big to just wave away as insignficant.

If we assume ashersky is town, there is a 20% chance gkrieg is the godfather.  If we assume Awaclus as well, then 25%.  If you are town, take yourself out and it's 33%.

But the chances that he picked The Godfather to investigate when he did is much smaller

[gkrieg13]

And my relation to RR wasn't scummy like yours was.

[EFHW]

1.

If RR was my scumpartner, I'd buss him like crazy, like at least one of his partners did do. I wouldn't stick out my neck to save him, because after the flip being associated with him would be more damaging than losing the team member.

2.

Oh and at MYLO, it is always good scum play to defend your partners.  RR was not going to get lynched until I put my case out on him.  Ash even started the day out going for TWM.

3.

EFHW and mcmc were the only players off-scum-wagon.
Does scum really not bus RR here?  He did sit at L-2 forEVER.  Bussing is the correct play, but not the guaranteed play.  Still, it's something to think about.

4.

And my relation to RR wasn't scummy like yours was.

1. I say I would bus RR to avoid being associated with him later.
2. You say good play is to defend your partner.
3. ashersky (on an earlier irl day) says correct play is to bus your partner.
4. You find me scummy because I am associated with RR.

So how is it good scum play to defend RR in this situation?

[EFHW]

TWM, you keep allying yourself with gkrieg as if he is confirmed town.  He isn't, and the odds of his being godfather are too big to just wave away as insignficant.

If we assume ashersky is town, there is a 20% chance gkrieg is the godfather.  If we assume Awaclus as well, then 25%.  If you are town, take yourself out and it's 33%.

But the chances that he picked The Godfather to investigate when he did is much smaller

But now it's 33% regardless of what happened before.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

TWM, you keep allying yourself with gkrieg as if he is confirmed town.  He isn't, and the odds of his being godfather are too big to just wave away as insignficant.

If we assume ashersky is town, there is a 20% chance gkrieg is the godfather.  If we assume Awaclus as well, then 25%.  If you are town, take yourself out and it's 33%.

This is a really weird statement to make especially after that last post of mine. I specifically tried to reread without any bias in regard to anyone, except for ash at this point as we are treating him as confirmed town with the setup being the way it is. What I put out was what I saw from RR and how people responded to him. Even putting aside the result of my investigation you come out as scummier compared to gkrieg.

I am very aware that there is a godfather out there and will certainly take it into consideration after I look at everything from a neutral point of view. I haven't been able to do a reread on other individuals yet, but will be doing so soon.

[gkrieg13]

It would be nice to hear from ash/Awa soon.

[Awaclus]

It would be nice to hear from ash/Awa soon.

I still haven't done that reread but I'll get to it.

[mcmcsalot]

It would be nice to hear from ash/Awa soon.

I still haven't done that reread but I'll get to it.

Same, had a busy weekend.

[ashersky]

It would be nice to hear from ash/Awa soon.

I'm reading along.  I am trying to digest all the re-reads and stuff.  I have given lots of reads and opinions before, and am holding back the rest for now.  We have time to figure this out.

[ashersky]

A TWM reread is key.

[EFHW]

First let's clear up this idea that I am protecting mcmc.

I don't want to lynch mcmc at this point.  The contributions he did make were towny, and I didn't get the feeling he had any particular agenda.

That was Day 1.

I'd like to lynch mcmc or gkrieg today.

Let's try vote: mcmc

Day 3

I did nothing last night, so we can't know if ash was blocked.

I feel very certain the two remaining scum are gkrieg and mcmc.

Also, definitely no lynch, right?  Force them to kill me or Awa, whichever they think is townier.

I want to lynch gkrieg or mcmc. I don't see a reason not to lynch scum if we can. If we can't agree on both, perhaps enough people agree about one.

So you feel certain that I'm the Godfather then?

I feel certain you are scum, so yes, because I also have a very strong scumread on mcmc and a strong townread on TWM.

Day 4

Now I'd like to discuss gkrieg's reluctance to lynch mcmc.

And Awaclus is town, just because making the claim he did at the time he did and having it work out is just insane.

So really I just need to find the townie in EFHW/TWM/mcmcsalot.

See, you say things like this and I can only conclude you must be scum, having ruled out TWM and knowing myself to be town. But it's "he says/she says" here.  We seem to agree about mcmc.  Lynch there?

Well I'm more sure about you being scum than I am about mcmcsalot being scum.

Also just looking back at how RR responded to TWM's claim, it just doesn't seem like they could be partners. 

By your own POE, mcmc would have to be scum, then.

By your own POE, mcmc would have to be scum, then.

Yes, that is what I'm saying.

Earlier in the game, I asked if we should lynch a different scum because RR's flip wouldn't tell us much. gkrieg said:

Considering we are at MYLO, and possibly have a roleblocker, there is no advantage.  You definitely want to lynch the almost-known scum first.

I'm willing to lynch mcmc, why would town!gkrieg pass up that opportunity?

vote: mcmc

[EFHW]

I am very aware that there is a godfather out there and will certainly take it into consideration after I look at everything from a neutral point of view. I haven't been able to do a reread on other individuals yet, but will be doing so soon.

Sorry, TWM.  I remembered wrong.  It was gkrieg who said the chances were so small as to be insignificant.

I think the odds are a little different than that (where is Calamitas or SA when you need them!).  But either way, it shows that the chance that he copped the Godfather are small enough that people should consider me an IC if you believe TWM.

Which is nice because with Joseph, TWM, and me, that means that to any other townie, they just need to find the town left in the other 4 people.

mcmc also implied it:

and then when it seemed like we agreed not to claim and not to no lynch twm comes out clearing gkrieg and dropping our lynch pool dramatically.

[EFHW]

1. I say I would bus RR to avoid being associated with him later.
2. You say good play is to defend your partner.
3. ashersky (on an earlier irl day) says correct play is to bus your partner.
4. You find me scummy because I am associated with RR.

So how is it good scum play to defend RR in this situation?

Still hoping for an answer to this.

[gkrieg13]

I haven't defended mcmc in a long time. I misread RR, twice. It's true. I feel bad about it. But he was going to get lynched. Sticking my neck out for him would not be good scum play.

Well he hasn't really been scumread by town!people in a long time.

Oh and at MYLO, it is always good scum play to defend your partners.  RR was not going to get lynched until I put my case out on him.  Ash even started the day out going for TWM.

[EFHW]

I haven't defended mcmc in a long time. I misread RR, twice. It's true. I feel bad about it. But he was going to get lynched. Sticking my neck out for him would not be good scum play.

Well he hasn't really been scumread by town!people in a long time.

Oh and at MYLO, it is always good scum play to defend your partners.  RR was not going to get lynched until I put my case out on him.  Ash even started the day out going for TWM.

How is it good play?  It sounds like you are saying you are not scum because you didn't defend him? But bussing your partner in that situation is often the best move.

[EFHW]

Where the situation is that you have a partner who always gets lynched whether he is scum or not.

[gkrieg13]

Where the situation is that you have a partner who always gets lynched whether he is scum or not.

It's all WIFOM at this point. My personal belief is you did it so you could distance yourself from mcmc

[schadd]

Vote Count 4.2

mcmcsalot (1): EFHW

Not voting (5): The_Wine_Merchant, ashersky, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, gkrieg13

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 ends Feb. 3rd.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Work has been ridiculously busy. Wasn't able to take my break to spend some time on this. Will do at least a short reread tonight.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Ok quickish reread of these individuals.:

EFHW: main things I am seeing:

* a lot of scumreading on gkrieg. Initially voting for "not paying attention" and then on Day2 basis, at least partially a scum read for "knowing" that Awaclus was town, when it was obvious that wasn't what was meant. These two things jump out to me as they just seem really weak. Now certainly there were other things that EFHW presented, but as I reread these felt like they were attempts to force a read on someone.

* Was on the Robz and Jake wagons. Not in of itself is scummy, but was certainly a driving force for both of them.

* already mentioned the RR interactions. I will add in the comments after my RR reread felt scummy as they automatically assumed I was rereading with a bias toward gkrieg, which I was trying in particular to not do and there wasn't anything evident there to show otherwise.

* pushed for mcmcsalot late yesterday.

mcmcsalot: main things I am seeing:

* was hesitant to get on RR both Day2 and Day3. Well not so hesitant as wanting to look at other options, namely faust Day2 and me Day3.

* seems to have expressed some hesitation to vote EFHW.

* was alternate lynch to RR yesterday late.

* just noticed that he was pretty towny on me prior to my claim and then switched pretty hard after my claim.

gkrieg: main things I am seeing:

* obviously my results on him gives town credit. That RR didn't flip Godfather lessens that a bit. But I do continue to town read him. I mean, I townread him Day1, and then started to doubt that read of him after the end of day1. But much of everything else he has done has shown to be townie. If we lynch correctly today we will get a much clearer picture of gkrieg as he will either be confirmed town to me or my result on him will be meaningless. I would have to have a really strong scum read despite my result to want to lynch here. And I don't

* Was main driver of the RR lynch yesterday, even before my result on him. But few people listened until after I gave my result. If he is mafia, he could have felt confident in pushing for a mislynch yesterday elsewhere (ashersky? myself? mcmc if town? EFHW if town?) from RR likely for the win.

Awaclus: main things I am seeing

* I just really don't have a clue on a lot of his posts. That looks intentional, which really makes me want to find scummy, which ends up making me think the opposite of that.

* Was one of the main detractors of the RR lynch Day2, pushing solely for Jake instead of RR. Offset by the next point

* obviously had the hammer on RR. But was trying to push for mcmc lynch instead of RR Would lynch have happened without his vote? I don't know. Probably would have ended up no-lynching there. And could have gotten away with it without much complaint from anyone.

* Then there is the claim that he had, which if false was made with very little setup knowledge early on and was a major ploy when there may have been better long term options to claim. So that just automatically leans toward being town. As such, I think he just becomes less likely to become mafia from that alone.


Ok. I have to stop there. It wasn't as detailed as I would have liked. I am going to go through what others put down and maybe go back and try and do a bit more.

So EFHW is still the scummiest for me. Followed by mcmc. Then gkrieg and Awaclus.

Certainly if we lynch correctly today and that person isn't Godfather then gkrieg moves up. But that is a big if and I think we are better focused on trying to find that person first. I understand that we need to get the lynch correct today, but we also have to get it right tomorrow and it just doesn't make sense to lynch gkrieg first today when we could have more information about him tomorrow. And he has just felt like a town player all game anyways.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Oh. I forgot to take the roleblocking night actions into account. What were they again? ash roleblocked EFHW and Awaclus (if roleblocker) roleblocked mcmc?

I guess that adds slight town points to those two, but probably not enough to change anything.