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[gkrieg13]

And here are the rest of them.  I will comment on all of this later.  But really if you just read her posts, it is pretty obvious that RR and she were partners.

Classifying RR as "lurker lynch" is extremely misleading.

I'll take a look at him. The rationale I'm hearing right now is we should lynch him because he is not contributing.  Isn't that a lurker lynch?  No other points are being made.

But Jake is more damaging to town than RR because he posts reads and votes with very little behind them, and unless you are scrupulous about noticing his posts, it's possible to be influenced by those posts inadvertently.

Well, he is currently lurking. He was already scummy before this started. Also he made a big post about how he will try to play better when he was under pressure and then didn't follow up. So it's pretty likely that that post was just AtE and manipulation. Town!RR would feel compelled to actually do something about this. So even his absence now, is not mere "lurking", but alignment-indicative.

Saying "he was already scummy before this started" is meaningless to me.  People do that hand-waving all the time, and it's scummy. Give me some examples. 

I think his AtE was genuine and I'm not surprised he feels hesitant about posting since then, since he really raised the bar of our expectations and doesn't know if he will be able to live up to it.

vote: EFHW

I really don't remember her tunneling this much as town.

It's unusual that I would have so many arguments about one person. OMGUS me if you want.  If I'm lynched, then people will know I was sincere and can take another look at what I had to say.

Now you are saying that my vote is OMGUS?  I think I voted for you first?

I don't know who voted first.  I know your reread followed my beginning to put pressure on you.

I'm a better lynch than RR.

I have reread RR. A few scummy posts I noticed:

 at 52 he comments on the short length of N0.
 at 455 He gives intent to hammer Robz but then says "remember I have no spine".
 at 543 He refuses to name his top three lynch choices.
 at 924 he claims not to notice deadlines
 
He had 109 posts.  He does a lot of policing of Jake.  Maybe that is even helpful to town, I don't know if Jake listens to him or not. He defends Joseph. He doesn't seem fearful at all.  He stands up to mcmc, faust, Awaclus and me when suspected. He gives Jake 4 different reasons why his plan was bad for town. There's the long chat with Jake that I assume provoked the apology.  A bit later the apology, and then nothing until Sat evening.

Things that are questionable:
 Why he only voted once in 2 game days.
 Why he didn't post again until almost 2 days after his apology.

I'm not going to vote RR.

I'm not going to vote RR.

Why not?

Read the thread.

Something can be equal for different reasons. I am not saying they are identical. Two bags can be equally heavy full of rocks or coins.

vote: RR, if we get more Jake votes I'll go back there.

A better vote I think.
RR is being deliberately unhelpful this game, Jake has actually done some reads and that.

RR has been super more helpful than Jake.

Can you point me to a single helpful RR post?
Really going now.

He pointed out 4 different ways that Jake's 3 person plan was a problem. His interventions with Jake have been to illogical and contradictory things Jake has said.  RoadRunner is being RailRoaded.

I hope we hear a lot more from ash and RR today. And lots from everyone else too, but they have been particularly inactive.

I'm going to back off the gkrieg thing for now.  Knowing Jake was town is helpful.  The town narratives fit gkrieg's posts well enough for doubt to creep in.  I found his second post on me really distorted, but I guess that's understandable given the pressure I was putting him under.

This means mcmc, ashersky and RR are the current question marks for me. I have a town read on TWM and Awaclus's claim would be unlikely from scum.  I keep toying with the idea that the town roleblocker should claim, but we couldn't really trust that anyway, so Awaclus isn't IC but also not a scumread at the moment.

@RR: Did you think Jake was scum?

It's impossible to tell with Jake. I did, however, think that the more he posted the more possible it would be to tell. While we were having our back and forth, he seemed to relaxed to be scum. But later in the day I think he started acting scummy.

Several people have noted that most of your interactions Day 1 and Day 2 were with Jake.  Can you say why?

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I've been wanting the roleblocker to claim because then I think I will know the three person scumteam.  But I guess it's not necessary, yet.  We could do one more lynch and they can roleblock a likely suspect. But we're risking Awaclus's claim not being true by continuing despite a claim.

vote: RR

@EFHW, what changed from yesterday?

POE.

Also you had a really scummy response to TWM's claim.

Is there an advantage to lynching someone else on the scum team besides RR? His partners will throw him under the bus so we won't learn anything from the wagon. I also think mcmc is a more dangerous player.

He probably would have. unvote Sorry, but I need to hear the roleblocker claim.

RR WOULD have claimed roleblocker, though.  He loves claiming stuff.  And then they would know who the roleblocker was when he was counterclaimed.

And I'm starting to feel like TWM is the best Lynch today...

The only scummy thing I see against TWM is that his accusations against RR of lying and manipulating kind of didn't make sense.  First he said it was on purpose, then he said it wasn't RR's initial intention, but by not posting he reneged on his promise which is lying, and makes the promise manipulative.  But people make promises and then find out it's harder than they expected without it being lying. And if it wasn't his initial intention then he wasn't lying, he was being unrealistic.  Maybe he was scum and posting was too hard for that reason, but the lying/manipulation thing doesn't work for me. It's possible scum!TWM was playing up his disgust with RR

I'd like to lynch mcmc or gkrieg today.

I'm sorry to back out of the RR lynch, but I believe that he would have fakeclaimed roleblocker as scum.

I'd like to lynch gkrieg today.

I don't normally use emojis, but I think this qualifies: 

Awaclus, ashersky and gkrieg can't all be town. I think you are town, and feel that ashersky and Awaclus probably are as well, so gkrieg must be godfather. This probably only works from my perspective, but that's what I have to work with!

You omitted that I also wanted to lynch mcmc.

EFHW can't be scum. The way she got off my wagon today is something scum wouldn't do. Cause I was at L-1 with intent to hammer. Scum EFHW should not have unvoted.

I don't know. That seems really spontaneous. Why would you do that out of the blue EFHW? And why would you follow Awaclus?

It's not really out of the blue.  I've already mentioned him more than once as a likely scum.

Vote Count 2.11

faust (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
JaketheBaseballGod22 (4): Awaclus, Roadrunner7671, EFHW, The_Wine_Merchant
EFHW (1): gkrieg13
Roadrunner7671 (3): faust, JaketheBaseballGod22, Joseph2302


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends Jan. 16th at 12pm forum time, which is in a half-hour

This vote count is one of the biggest points on the scum!RR case.  People on the Jake wagon didn't want to budge, and with 6 needed to lynch, only 4 could be off-wagon, so with me not around, it means that either scum needed to bus, or that ALL remaining town people needed to be on a scum lynch.  The RR wagon is already 3 town at this point, and people kept saying that they were fine with either wagon, but kept on the Jake wagon.  At this point, it might even be the entire scum team on the Jake wagon tbh.  Unless ash or mcmcsalot is scum.

From my perspective, Jake got lynched because he was ruining the game. People who felt like they could do either would pick him.  And it's not like there was anything convincing in the RR cases.

Also, we had 7 town and 3 scum.  You and ash didn't come by, so who knows what combination of scum and town we had.  Saying the entire scumteam was on Jake's wagon is fanciful and not based on facts because we don't know enough.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

You were.

Woah!  Deadline snuck up fast!

Look guys, RR would've been hammered if he weren't scum!

I tend to agree with this. Looks a better lynch than mcmc. And I can't work out which of gkrieg and EFHW is the bad one

PPE:1

RR's been at L-2 all this time.  I don't know how many scum teams would feel confident they could coordinate a quicklynch.  I tried it once, and it only barely worked out and was probably foolhardy of me.

If we mislynch here the game rides on the RB (assuming he exists!) successfully blocking the nk, which will be very difficult.

We always lynch RR, because he is scummy as town, and ~90% of the time he is town.

PPE: 2

You know what, for RR to definitely be scum for me, ashersky, Awaclus and TWM need to be town. And I do have townreads on each of them.  I didn't at the start of the day, but things have evolved. Hearing from the roleblocker would have made this much easier.  But I'll take the chance and hammer if needed. at 12.

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

You were.

Also these are contradictory. 

[gkrieg13]

I'm fine with a no lynch, but I'm so incredibly confident that EFHW is scum, that I think it is worth it to lynch today.

The two cases are:

EFHW is the roleblocker - This means ash can just block mcmcsalot and we can lynch him if the kill is blocked.  Even if scum decides to no kill (would really have to be TWM at that point, seeing as Awaclus claiming 1-shot RB and getting lucky is just so incredibly unlikely) and mcmcsalot really isn't scum, ash can just block TWM, and we still win.

EFHW is the Godfather - This clears me, so we have enough ICs to once again know that it is either mcmcsalot or TWM (once again, leaning towards the fact that TWM is town)

I realize that this logic hinges on the fact that I'm town, but I think EFHW flipping scum proves I'm town anyway.  If you reread her, like a third of her posts are trying to get people to lynch me.

[EFHW]

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

different days

You were.

Also these are contradictory.

[EFHW]

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

You were.

Also these are contradictory.

different days

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

You were.

Also these are contradictory.

different days

Well, maybe IRL, but they were both D3, and both in response to TWM's claim.

[ashersky]

I blocked Calamitas N1 and gkrieg N2.

[EFHW]

great, so we all post that three people other than ourselves, ash or Awaclus have to be scum.

I don't really have a response to gkrieg.  I did say those things.  Make of them what you will. I'm not going to do another exhaustive case on him; that doesn't seem to get me anywhere.  TWM is really backing gkrieg up, so maybe they are partners. I'm just kind of overwhelmed by scumreads at the moment.

[ashersky]

If any other player is claiming PR, how's the time.  At this point, I'm assuming EFHW, gkrieg, and mcmc all claim VT.

Also, Awaclus, I think it's time to claim your block.

[ashersky]

Gkrieg, did you prepare those quotes during night?

[EFHW]

gkrieg wasn't under fire today.

I'm also surprised people are putting me and TWM on a scum team together!  Like why would we claim like that, when it seemed like neither of us were under much scrutiny.

You were.

Also these are contradictory.

different days

Well, maybe IRL, but they were both D3, and both in response to TWM's claim.

No, the first comment was a response to RR Day 3.  The second one was describing Day 2. 

[EFHW]

great, so we all post that three two people other than ourselves, ash or Awaclus have to be scum.

I don't really have a response to gkrieg.  I did say those things.  Make of them what you will. I'm not going to do another exhaustive case on him; that doesn't seem to get me anywhere.  TWM is really backing gkrieg up, so maybe they are partners. I'm just kind of overwhelmed by scumreads at the moment.

FTFM

[gkrieg13]

Gkrieg, did you prepare those quotes during night?

No.  I did them just now by rereading and opening a bunch of tabs.

[ashersky]

No lynch means LYLO without me or Awaclus.  Scum team kills based on reads, activity, likelihood of being swayed, etc.

All this hinges on Awaclus not having played us all game, but at this point, if he's lying scum, gg and enjoy the MVP.

We need to find two from {EFHW, gkrieg, mcmc, TWM}.  For the two town there, it's 2 out of three.  You have better odds than me or Awa.

I say we take this day and complete rereads with known info -- RR was scum, etc.  No need to rush.

[EFHW]

I think EFHW flipping scum proves I'm town anyway.  If you reread her, like a third of her posts are trying to get people to lynch me.

That's why I tried to get myself lynched Day 2, so people would know I really meant what I was saying.

[ashersky]

The most likely pairs seem to be EFHW/mcmc or gkrieg/TWM.

I mean, if simple is simple, TWM didn't lie and gkrieg isn't Godfather.  Or TWD did lie no they are partners.

Third place is TWD/X.

Gkrieg/EFHW is unlikely enough that it could have been planned.

[EFHW]

I don't know who voted first.  I know your reread followed my beginning to put pressure on you.

I'm a better lynch than RR.

I do want to mention that if I was RR's partner, I would not think I was a better lynch than him, and pretending I did think that wouldn't be much help to scum!me.

[EFHW]

And here are the rest of them.  I will comment on all of this later.  But really if you just read her posts, it is pretty obvious that RR and she were partners.

If RR was my scumpartner, I'd buss him like crazy, like at least one of his partners did do. I wouldn't stick out my neck to save him, because after the flip being associated with him would be more damaging than losing the team member.

[gkrieg13]

EFHW, you are literally saying that any reason you are scummy, is not really scummy because you would've done the opposite as scum.

[EFHW]

EFHW, you are literally saying that any reason you are scummy, is not really scummy because you would've done the opposite as scum.

These two instances, yes.  Don't know about "any". I probably would do a number of the same things I did in this game as scum.  That's the problem for me here, right?

[EFHW]

I thought TWM seemed pretty angry and upset with RR (and Jake), but when I asked he said he was just frustrated.  The apology betrayal seemed kind of over the top, too (sorry if I'm wrong!).  I'll look for quotes later to get details, but I'm thinking maybe he was overplaying the bussing thing.

[Awaclus]

If any other player is claiming PR, how's the time.  At this point, I'm assuming EFHW, gkrieg, and mcmc all claim VT.

Also, Awaclus, I think it's time to claim your block.

I blocked mcmc N3.

[gkrieg13]

If any other player is claiming PR, how's the time.  At this point, I'm assuming EFHW, gkrieg, and mcmc all claim VT.

Also, Awaclus, I think it's time to claim your block.

I blocked mcmc N3.

But scum!RB knew that ash was probably RB, so I don't think this really clears a mcmc/EFHW team. 

But that does mean that they got lucky that you guys didn't block the opposite people.

[ashersky]

If any other player is claiming PR, how's the time.  At this point, I'm assuming EFHW, gkrieg, and mcmc all claim VT.

Also, Awaclus, I think it's time to claim your block.

I blocked mcmc N3.

But scum!RB knew that ash was probably RB, so I don't think this really clears a mcmc/EFHW team. 

But that does mean that they got lucky that you guys didn't block the opposite people.

I don't know man.  We have EFHW and mcmc blocked on N3 and a kill went through.  I think it is safe to assume that I was blocked N3 and they would have guessed Awaclus had used his shot.

If EFHW blocked and killed, sure.  But for mcmc to have done the kill last night, they had to have decided to block Awa instead of me.

I think this helps mcmc.

[ashersky]

There may be some confirmation bias, as I've strangely townread mcmc from the moment I entered the game.