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[Eevee]

Can I post coloured-in vote counts from D1/D2 in-thread now for illustrative purposes?

I've been looking more at early wagons in the light of other suspicions, the intervening flips, and the fact that everyone except maybe faust is willing to assume the Masons are on our side.

You can

Thanks!

I have ~2 more hours in my work day, then it's the evening routine of home, shopping, cook-for-household, eat... then it's game time again :-)

We have 4 hours and 40 minutes to the deadline, just a heads up.

[Galzria]

 I'm here until deadline.

Will lynch:

Faust: Possible teams include Eevee/{RR, DatSwan, e}, Space/{RR, Datswan}, or Teproc/O

Space: Possible teams include RR/DatSwan, RR/Faust, Faust/DatSwan

Datswan: Possible teams include Eevee/{e, RR, Faust}, Space/{RR, Faust}, or RR/Faust

RR: Possible teams include Eevee/{e, DatSwan, Faust}, Space/{DatSwan, Faust}

Eevee: Potential teams include: e/{DatSwan, RR, Faust}, Datswan/{RR, Faust}, RR/Faust

I will not lynch:

O/Teproc - If they're scum, they have a partner. This is LIKELY Faust, making him the better lynch. In the off chance they're scum and Faust is NOT their partner, the lack of a quick hammer can be attributed to Faust potentially being poisoned. Still, Faust is the better lynch.

Qvist - The only player I'm willing to throw the game for being town.

e - There are a lot of teams he could be on, notably all with Eevee. If he's town, he's worth keeping alive today as he still has his RB shot and could modify the game state at night.

I'm less inclined to lynch either of Space or Eevee here though unless needed though - between the potential for NK's confirming players and results, and them acquiring more results, I'm more inclined to let them live for now and try to find scum {Faust, DatSwan, RR}.

For now, my vote stands.

[Eevee]

I'll also be here until the deadline.

[Swowl]

Hey. I was off by 2 hours on EOD, good news there. I’ll be here for the rest. Except for coffee. Must find coffee.

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm excited to see another out-of-date analysis which ignores that me and Teproc spent plenty of time online together with Faust at L-2.

Huh? My point is that my analysis colours you two green because most of us think you're likely enough to be town at this point.

Can I post coloured-in vote counts from D1/D2 in-thread now for illustrative purposes?

I've been looking more at early wagons in the light of other suspicions, the intervening flips, and the fact that everyone except maybe faust is willing to assume the Masons are on our side.

You can

You may want to clarify further in your question. I believe that's a no. You can only color mod provided information.

Huh.. I didn't specify Robz-generated vote counts, and he said yes. I think he's very likely to have understood that I intended to include self-counted vote counts.

Robz, are you still cool with that?

[Robz888]

You are good, Space

[SpaceAnemone]

Can I post coloured-in vote counts from D1/D2 in-thread now for illustrative purposes?

I've been looking more at early wagons in the light of other suspicions, the intervening flips, and the fact that everyone except maybe faust is willing to assume the Masons are on our side.

You can

Thanks!

I have ~2 more hours in my work day, then it's the evening routine of home, shopping, cook-for-household, eat... then it's game time again :-)

We have 4 hours and 40 minutes to the deadline, just a heads up.

Understood. I can't exactly get rid of my real-life commitments, though :-( I have arranged with the person I'm snuggling up on a sofa with later to watch Netflix with that we start at 9pm rather than 8pm (which would be 3pm forum time)... I thought that was a pretty high level of dedication to the game ;-)

[SpaceAnemone]

You are good, Space

Yup, that's what I'm looking to prove :-)

(Thank you!)

[SpaceAnemone]

These first two vote counts are non-consecutive snapshots of the D1 voting in the runup to the IDP mislynch, and of the lynch itself.

#737
LaLight (8): Jimmmmm, gkrieg13, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, IDontPlayThisGame, Galzria, iguanaiguana, Witherweaver
Roadrunner7671 (2): Qvist, Chairs
IDontPlayThisGame (7): Roadrunner7671, faust, 2.71828....., O, LaLight, DatSwan, Teproc

#784
LaLight (6): Jimmmmm, gkrieg13, SpaceAnemone, IDontPlayThisGame, Galzria, iguanaiguana
Roadrunner7671 (2): Qvist, Chairs
IDontPlayThisGame (9): Roadrunner7671, faust, 2.71828....., LaLight, DatSwan, Teproc, Witherweaver, O, Eevee

Looking first at the LL wagon above, I really don't think he's got only one scum on his tail, and nor should the rest of you. This means there ought to be one scum between Eevee and Galz (and is more obvious in my personal version where I'm coloured green too, but I know I'm not winning friends by posting that here). Looking at the IDP wagon, it's clear in retrospect that they're both "good" wagons for scum, in terms of none of the Others being on anyone's radar yet. The fact that Eevee was trying to look so townie by being around to push something through at the very end is a bit suspicious if you look at it in terms of him knowing where his scum buddies were at, especially if we're happy to accept that none of the previous three IDP votes came from anyone on the scum team.


Next is the actual LL lynch, at the end of D2. He was being scummy, at least for those of us who know him well, and I'd count myself in that pool.. not necessarily all of the people on that wagon. The iffy ones would be DatSwan and Galz, since they can't have played with LL that much, and yet are right at the head of his wagon.

#1125
LaLight (8): DatSwan, O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, iguanaiguana
gkrieg13 (2): LaLight, faust
Galzria (1): Teproc
Not Voting (4): 2.71828....., Chairs, Qvist, Jimmmmm


Lastly, here's the count that was current when I started posting:

#1944
faust (4): 2.71828....., Qvist, SpaceAnemone, Galzria
Galzria (1): DatSwan
SpaceAnemone (3): O, Eevee, Teproc
DatSwan (2): faust, Roadrunner7671

Of the people joining me on faust, I think the most obvious thing I might calls as a straight bus is e, and I feel the need to reiterate that e is only cleared by Eevee (if we can trust Eevee!) as non-poisoner, not non-scum. The odd thing with this is Galz's vote, though. He shifted to faust on the basis of my numbers argument, which I admit was not intended as a strong case. And yet he bought it enough to vote faust, but not enough to vote e, who was the poisoner in that particular proposed scumteam I presented, in spite of various people arguing that we have to lynch the poisoner now and not just someone who's likely to be actual scum. The other obvious candidate for Galz, if he really agreed with my scenario, ought to be Eevee. Not only would an Eevee scum flip point really strongly to poisoner!e, but from Galz's point of view, Eevee and I should be pretty strong candidates, looking back at the things like the interactions above.

I appear to have found myself at a point where the townread I had on Galz is less relevant.
A vote: Galz can stay there till I'm done with dinner at least. Back in about an hour and totally willing to move back to faust.

[Galzria]

The problem with voting e, Space, is that it's simply a terrible move right now. Yes, he could be scum. Yes, he could be the Poisoner. But if he's town he's the only person alive that can stop a scum kill. There is no world in which lynching him today is EVER the right move.

Regarding Eevee: He's scum before e. That is, e can be town or scum, and Eevee can be anything. But if e is scum, so is Eevee. So lynching Eevee would always take precedent. But much like you, there's a reasonableness to not lynching him today in that either: he's NOT scum and dies tonight, he's NOT scum and gets results for a potential tomorrow, or he IS scum and is forced to create more results for tomorrow.

Additionally, as I noted in the post where I voted Faust, a large part of my vote was on viability. Nobody wanted to or was interested in an e/Eevee vote. Why would I waste my time voting there?

[Galzria]

"Next is the actual LL lynch, at the end of D2. He was being scummy, at least for those of us who know him well, and I'd count myself in that pool.. not necessarily all of the people on that wagon. The iffy ones would be DatSwan and Galz, since they can't have played with LL that much, and yet are right at the head of his wagon."

And this.... what? LaLight lied, intentionally or not, about his bid. I will lynch based on this every time. Further, an argument that "Galz doesn't know him well enough to know he was being scummy" is kinda ridiculous. Scummy is scummy. LaLight was scummy D1. LaLight lied D1. I called this out D1. LaLight continued to be scummy D2, and I continued to vote LaLight D2. LaLight wasn't Mafia. From that perspective it was as good as a Town Lynch for Mafia (better, actually) - but town!Galz wouldn't know that. All I knew was that LaLight had lied to get himself off a lynch block, and then tried to back track when called out on it. I won't apologize for that vote or lynch.

[Eevee]

Why can't e be scum if I'm town? He can't be the poisoner, but he could have ninja killed the night I tracked him, for example. (Other than that, I agree with your post though.)

[Teproc]

Space's analysis is a whole bunch of nothing to me. It's pretty baseless... why is the IDPTG wagon more likely to have scum ? Why is the LL wagon likely to have however many scum on it Space thinks there was ?

Really it seems to me like nothing Space says in this post has anything to do with wagons, it's just normal reads given the illusion of authority by wrapping them up within voting analysis. I don't think this is particularly indicative of Space being scum in and of itself, but it sure isn't indicative of them being town either.

[Teproc]

Like, look at that LaLight wagon. The only non-conf!town (YMV on me and to a lesser degree Qvist, but still) on it  is e... so yeah, there's scum on it. He was a SK, so... there's nothing there. If Space was saying "this argument X was making in favor of Y's lynch doesn't seem genuine because Z", I'd follow, but I don't see anything resembling a reasoning here.

[Galzria]

Why can't e be scum if I'm town? He can't be the poisoner, but he could have ninja killed the night I tracked him, for example. (Other than that, I agree with your post though.)

I believe e is what he's claimed to be. If that's accurate, I think he would've RB'd LL N1. But you claim he didn't go anywhere. So. Scum!e = Scum!Eevee.

Teproc and O don't think this is true because e risks being tracked. But you're the Tracker. What did he have to be scared of? Maybe that somebody Watched LL, sure. But he didn't kill him. He just Roleblocked him. That's easy enough to argue out of - especially when evidence later would suggest that e didn't visit LL to poison him.

[Teproc]

ANd yes, e can be scum with Eevee being town, especially given the JOAT claim. I don't think Eevee and e should be considered as a pair in the way Galz is suggesting.

PPE: If e is scum, one of his partners can be an actual full Roleblocker. I don't know think scum uses their shot on presumedJK!LaLight if they're not also killing him.

[Teproc]

WHo's putting words in whose mouth now ? I don't think JOAT!e roleblocking LL on N1 is unlikely because of fear of a Tracker (what are scum supposed to do, never use any role ?), I think it's unlikely because I think e is town.

[Eevee]

Teproc is looking real towny now, I've stopped being (so) worried about the masons.

[Galzria]

vote: Space

More viable than Faust it seems. And if they're town then we're not lynching scum without Tep/O, so...

[Eevee]

I think I may vote for Galzria.

[Eevee]

PPE.

Vote: Galzria

[Qvist]

I agree that we shouldn't vote for masons.

[Galzria]

WHo's putting words in whose mouth now ? I don't think JOAT!e roleblocking LL on N1 is unlikely because of fear of a Tracker (what are scum supposed to do, never use any role ?), I think it's unlikely because I think e is town.

I think O said it, not you. But yes, I'm pairing you two together.

[Galzria]

Galzria, suppose faust flips scum, does that change your read on me? Or you just assume I came into the day ready and willing to bus?

I think scum came into today with a commanding position, looking for the kill but willing to have a completely open book.

It's possible you're not scum. It's actually a good reason to not lynch you today regardless. As you've claimed not to have used your RB, you're potentially the only player that can still prevent a death and change the game state.

Tomorrow brings more information. If Eevee is town and poisoned right now, for example, that would clear you. In fact, the point that scum didn't know who to safely poison last night is quite beneficial to us because there's a potential windfall of results between Eevee and Space, as well as Teproc/O.

I don't know, e. I've struggled this game to get solid reads. I've posted gut reads on every player still alive in my QT and I read absolutely 0 of you as town. And yet 6 of you are. It's why I'm more focused on the numbers than strictly reads. Reads this game, for me, have just been really hard. I think I've said at multiples points earlier in the game something along the lines of "I can't tell you why, but I believe 'X' is scum". That's terrible town play. I should be better able to form concrete reads, but I simply have not been able to do so.

End of story: If we're still playing tomorrow, and I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll reevaluate my reads tomorrow.

I -do- think LL was RB'd, and the only players that aren't you that could be hiding that PR are the VT's and the Masons. So if you're not scum then you should be convinced that either there is 2 scum amongst: RR/Datswan/Faust/Galz, or that the Masons are hoodwinking us.

I think it's just incredibly likely that LL didn't perform a night kill the night after almost being lynched in a game with a tracker slot, and only JK'd someone

[Qvist]

How many hours left and vote count?