Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Galzria]

1) Never said skum wouldn't stay on 4. Either getting me mixed up with someone else or mis understanding something, IDK which.

2) I am not saying that all PRs must be the skum. I am saying that specifically, in this exact situation I was 3rd from the bottom to bid. If I am skum, then I must assume that Teproc and O are telling the truth, or they are my skum buddies, either way 0 is 1/3 of the people behind me obviously anything I say he will not contradict in that scenario right?
Then there is Qivst, who IMO is clearly the role he has claimed to be.
Then there is E! Who either is skum in this situation or not. Either way, doesn't matter because IF I am skum, and E! is skum then O isn't skum, or if I am skum and O is skum (then since Teproc is skum), E! isn't skum.

All of that is to point out that if Skum!Swan is the poisoner in a situation where only one person behind me could out me if I lied about my claim... with all of the infinite amounts of information I have... Assuming VT looks more suspicious than claiming a PR at that point does (which obv it does).... Why the hell would I in that Skum!Swan scenario CHOOSE to put myself in the VT pile? I wouldn't... I never would, that is absurd.

That is horribly formatted, sorry... but hopefully the point gets across... fake claiming is dangerous in that situation... unless you know all of the damn information. As Town!Swan, I almost could puzzle out the chart just based on what I had to work with. Add in knowledge of 3 other Skum Players, and the person in that spot could make up whatever they freeking wanted!

I don't want to ramp the vote against you right now. And honestly I don't know where your read is coming from. I would invite you to go back and read me without the pregame logic, just because - same point as you made - unless I am poisoned, if I die, then we lose.

Last Point - I have not made any accusations, because I do not have any to make really. I think you are town. At this point I believe the Mason claims. I think Qivst is town. I am on the fence about Space, but leaning town. Faust seems skummy to me for the flaily-ness and the weird not wanting to vote. I think there must be a skum between RR and E!, if we somehow get it right today I think the flip will help guess who?

Did I miss someone?

At this point I need to re read and I would like to get in put from other non-vocal players. I think I answered all your questions though, lmk if not and I will get back.

1) You're saying that YOU wouldn't have stayed on 4 if you're scum. I'm saying that scum obviously stayed on 4, so if I think you're scum it's a perfectly valid place for you to be. As you bid it last time and there was likely to be an exodus from it after the last roll, it's also a reasonable place for you to be.

2) Yes, you would have all the information by this point. But as I mentioned, placing yourself amongst the VT's isn't neccesarily the worst thing ever. If scum get the mislynch today, they win. That's 1-in-4 odds. The remaining scum would be 2-in-6. Scum wouldn't WANT to place all 3 in the same pool. There's no real way to predict which pool we would want to lynch from, and this spreads things out. It's also by FAR the easiest, because it's likely accurate. The closer scum can stick to the truth, the easier they'll have it. Additionally, look at the stations not taken: The Arrow (Station Two), The Flame (Station Four), The Staff (Station Seven), and The Looking Glass (Station Eight). Claiming The Flame is straight up out, because you would be the Day Vig, and you're not. Claiming The Arrow would mean you need to produce cop results - dangerous at the best of times for scum. The Looking Glass doesn't really have anything town could reasonably go for. You could claim The Staff and Doctor, and that might buy you a no-lynch today - but that is really about it. I think claiming VT as scum in your spot is absolutely the right play here. There's enough other VT's around - and especially ones back like you - to make it good enough cover that you'll likely not be the lynch.

The biggest drawback to my beliefs is that it would put 3 scum in the Candidates thread. I'm not maths oriented enough to tell you the exact chances of that - but I would assume it's relatively small. That said, random is random and has no bias.

For the record, these were the (stated, not confirmed) votes cast by Candidates N1:

Iguana voted Swan
Teproc voted Swan
Eevee voted Swan
Swan voted Swan (we were supposed to not vote for oneself)
Galzria voted Teproc
e voted Teproc

Swan investigated me at night.

2 things:
1) you are aware of my reasoning, which I followed through with for voting for myself. that is why I checked you, to confirm you as non-SM and then said you should have the vote since we know you are not SM.
2) Same logic as the whole claiming thing. Why would I admit to voting for myself if I were skum?

I will reread. I never saw reasoning. And it's hardly as damning to vote for yourself to secure the vote if there's 3 scum in the thread.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm definitely feeling swan over galz here, but I think
Faust is my favorite

[O]

@Space I almost want to risk the game on policy lynching you at this point, since it's far more frustrating losing to a lurker than a scum!Galz or scum!Faust here.

[Qvist]

I'm definitely feeling swan over galz here, but I think
Faust is my favorite

I would have loved more info. Would you mind explaining why you think so?

[2.71828.....]

@Space I almost want to risk the game on policy lynching you at this point, since it's far more frustrating losing to a lurker than a scum!Galz or scum!Faust here.

The first game I played on the forum I learned that policy lynching lurkers is not really a winning strategy

[O]

@Space I almost want to risk the game on policy lynching you at this point, since it's far more frustrating losing to a lurker than a scum!Galz or scum!Faust here.

The first game I played on the forum I learned that policy lynching lurkers is not really a winning strategy

it is some of the time though.

[2.71828.....]

Right now I am feeling pretty confident in a faust/space/datswan remaining scum team

[2.71828.....]

@Space I almost want to risk the game on policy lynching you at this point, since it's far more frustrating losing to a lurker than a scum!Galz or scum!Faust here.

The first game I played on the forum I learned that policy lynching lurkers is not really a winning strategy

it is some of the time though.

True. I would be down to lynch space, don't get me wrong. But not because they are lurking.

[Swowl]

OK I have done some reading and it is extremely late so reasoning will have to follow if needed... But I am not seeing the Space case here. I get that yeah it is probably what he would do if X and Y happened and he is Skum!Space but, it just seems too perfect.
I re read as Skum!Space and I re  read as Town!Space... I can see arguments fo finding links to Skum!Space, but they all can be inferred as how a Town Tracker would play. I just don't see them being the lynch. Even if I am wrong and they are skum then we still miss the poisoner I think? There is no way for skum to talk during the day so if they were skum, and pulling a poisoner-watcher switch - why would they pick to claim tracking a high profile target like Galz last night? They could not of known it was true.

Obviously I also am against lynching myself. But I am kind of over defending that at this point. If anyone wants to pursue it I will be happy to elaborate further.

Faust is quite clearly skum.
I get that we are trying to find the poisoner, and that because of this he isn't the one who is poisoned.... but if our lynch pool consists of the 1) the AFK dude that pops in with numbers every once and a while, 2) skum!Faust, and 3) Me...
Then we have a problem because only one of us is for sure flipping skum in that group and I cannot believe he is the poisoner as played.

I think we need to consider the outlier idea, that the poisoner would be deliberately quiet to just stay out of action. I said it day 1 and I will say it again. RR.

[Roadrunner7671]

Right now I am feeling pretty confident in a faust/space/datswan remaining scum team

If you believe my claim (and you must since you think I'm town) why do you think Space is scum?

[2.71828.....]

Right now I am feeling pretty confident in a faust/space/datswan remaining scum team

If you believe my claim (and you must since you think I'm town) why do you think Space is scum?

I don't understand the contradiction here.  You went for watcher and failed.  Space went for Watcher and got it.  Role is independent of alignment.

[2.71828.....]

I don't think we should lynch space today.  I think faust/DatSwan is the lynch for today in my opinion.  I still have time to develop my read on Space.  They are the most gut/hunch read of the group.

[Roadrunner7671]

Right now I am feeling pretty confident in a faust/space/datswan remaining scum team

If you believe my claim (and you must since you think I'm town) why do you think Space is scum?

I don't understand the contradiction here.  You went for watcher and failed.  Space went for Watcher and got it.  Role is independent of alignment.

So you really think space went for watcher as scum again?

[2.71828.....]

For reference, pure vote history on the three. Will look at interactions (or lack thereof as I noticed pulling the below) in a bit.

Swan vote history:
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Roadrunner
- IDPTG
- LL

2.7 vote history:
- LL
- Gkrieg
- IDPTG
- iguana
- faust

Space vote history:
- Gkrieg
- LL
- LL
- Iguana

Were you going anywhere with this or mostly just collected the data and posted it for posterity?

[Qvist]

So anyone find it curious that RR doesn't answer my question?

[2.71828.....]

Right now I am feeling pretty confident in a faust/space/datswan remaining scum team

If you believe my claim (and you must since you think I'm town) why do you think Space is scum?

I don't understand the contradiction here.  You went for watcher and failed.  Space went for Watcher and got it.  Role is independent of alignment.

So you really think space went for watcher as scum again?

I think it is entirely possible.  I also think we need to be careful about the "again" part of your statement.  While data can be looked at from the reroll, and choices were probably different (somewhat) than the reroll, this game is independent of that one, and a decision by scum to take a townie role is not a bad one.

[Galzria]

For reference, pure vote history on the three. Will look at interactions (or lack thereof as I noticed pulling the below) in a bit.

Swan vote history:
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Roadrunner
- IDPTG
- LL

2.7 vote history:
- LL
- Gkrieg
- IDPTG
- iguana
- faust

Space vote history:
- Gkrieg
- LL
- LL
- Iguana

Were you going anywhere with this or mostly just collected the data and posted it for posterity?

Posterity. Mainly, though it isn't yet at the forefront of my cases on each of the above, it's to note the similarities between each, and the lack of interaction they've had with each other.

I'm trying to figure out a way to parse individual players for key words to see if/when one player talks to (quote) or about (reference) another individual without having to slog through a full reread of each player. Swan and Space aren't horrible, but you've got almost as many posts as I do, and it's a plain to parse.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Space I almost want to risk the game on policy lynching you at this point, since it's far more frustrating losing to a lurker than a scum!Galz or scum!Faust here.

Urgh.. really sorry for my lack of posts. I have half-written notes in a text buffer, but genuinely haven't had time lately to be on my computer away from work :-(

Catching up tonight for sure! (Haven't read any post below this one yet, though!)

[SpaceAnemone]

These are the claim notes I started the other day and didn't have time to post/follow through with. More stuff incoming once I've finished putting my thoughts together.

Teproc & O -- on the same faction because of their claim, so that helps. Claim is #1268&#1270, bids and draft orders not claimed.

I claimed at #1350, gave all my results. (Bid 16 and came in at #3).

Eevee -- Claims tracker at #1353. Neatly takes e out of today's lynch pool by saying he didn't target N1, so can't be poisoner. Outs Qvist as protector of the island.

Qvist -- confirms PotI at #1363. The only way that could be false is if Eevee lied and also something else explained the missing NK death. That would be a really clever trick to pull off, but seems unlikely, especially because I saw him targetting Galz.

Galz -- Claims VT at #1377, having bid on poisoner. Says he bid #42, which I missed on first reading. Nice logicing there if it's true. Could just be that he has more info via the scum QT during bidding, though.

Wow, all the bickering about claim order is tedious to wade through again.

Faust -- claims VT at #1493, having bid 3, got position 15 and bid for Redirector. Seems really scummy for his resistance to the claiming exercise and his antagonising of Teproc et al. But I do think he's probably unlikely to be the poisoner, firstly because he's too obviously being scummy at this point, and secondly because I agree with the people saying that the smart thing for a scum team to do would be to hide the poisoner as another clained PR, especially since e started pushing quite a while ago to lynch amongst the VTs to catch the real poisoner after Iguana flipped goon.

RR -- claims VT who bid on Watcher at #1619. Claims to have bid 35 and got position 7. He's almost as clammed-up as I am, but I don't get the impression that lack of time is what's holding him back. I think him starting to look scummy at this point is sort of how he plays, though -- his mislynch was a bit of a black mark against me in M100.

DatSwan -- Claims VT at #1630. Says he bid 23 and got position 10. While I follow Galz's reasoning on him being the poisoner based on numbers, I think it's kind of flawed since I updated my reasoning for numbers based on the knowledge that everyone now knows how the bids went down the first time and the assumption that everyone would be trying to second-guess the new distribution.

e -- claims to be 1-shot RB (JOAT) at #1632. He says he bid 73 and got position 9. Galz earlier pointed out at #1314 about scum probably have an RB because of the way they treated LL. Though he's also pushing heavily on the lynch-a-VT part of things. This would be the perfect place for a poisoner to sit. Not sure why Eevee is so convinced he's townie rather than just non-poisoner though.. I don't see enough evidence. Oh, e has been buddying Eevee a bit too, like at #1561.

[faust]

HI, I'll be here tomorrow and have a lot of time to contribute Monday.

[Galzria]

Space, the missing NK -could- also be explained by Gkrieg targeting me. He could've redirected an attempted kill to a dead player.

[SpaceAnemone]

Lynching and wagon thoughts...

Let's take Teproc and O out of the pool for now. That leaves three PRs and four VTs to pick bewteen.

Qvist could in theory be scum if he is PotI, but it's unlikely because it looks like the Others' kill was blocked that night, and it seems a silly way to play it. Alternatively, he could be some other role, and Eevee could be lying, but that only works if he targeted Galz in his other-role capacity, and there aren't that many things for him secretly to be. Notably, if there's an RB then it could be him in this scenario, but the likelihood is really low. Anyway, I'm happy considering him a not-today lynch, so that leaves two claimed PRs and four claimed VTs.

Eevee could entirely be scum, and seems to have posted a bunch of stuff that could be seen as trying to frame me, from the ominous-sounding "I have a result on Space" coming into D4 to the fact that he then pushed me to full-claim before he gave his evidence, and conveniently then just claimed to have tracked me targetting the person I actually watched.

e holds a scummy PR and claims town. He has Eevee's trust as non-poisoner, so if Eevee is town, e is not the poisoner, but could still very well be scum, so no taking him out of today's pool.

Then there's Galz, faust, RR and Datswan, all of whom claim VT. I feel like with the bid coordination, scum almost certainly has more than one PR (i.e. not just poisoner), but it's also entirely possible that one of the PRs (say a RB or something?) is actually hiding out in the VTs.

D1 wagon stuff: RR, faust, e, DatSwan and Eevee were all on-wagon for the IDP mislynch d1. Galz and I were off-wagon, sitting on LL.

D2 wagon stuff: DatSwan, Galz, Eevee, RR and I were all on-wagon for the correct LL lynch (though he's third-faction, and we don't know whether scum knew that). faust was voting gkrieg (known town), and e didn't vote all day.

D3 wagon stuff: DatSwan and faust were not voting; most people were correctly on-wagon.

Galz -- Always right.
e -- Right 1/3.
DatSwan -- Right 1/3.
Eevee -- Right 2/3.
RR -- Right 2/3.
faust -- Never right.
Space -- Always right.

Someone in M100 called my wagon history there "too perfect", since scum are the ones who know wither a lynch is good or bad. Note that Galz has the same perfect record this time, and also that it's unlikely that scum knew LL was also scum, so they probably didn't have as much incentive as we did to push his lynch through.

I think faust is just too scummy to be the poisoner, but I'd quite like a recap of why it's not a terrible idea just to lynch obv!scum now and work on finding the poisoner from a reduced pool tomorrow.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, the missing NK -could- also be explained by Gkrieg targeting me. He could've redirected an attempted kill to a dead player.

Does that mean that the attempted kill had to be from Qvist, or performed by a ninja, though? Otherwise I think I'd have seen a third player targeting you.

[Galzria]

Space, the missing NK -could- also be explained by Gkrieg targeting me. He could've redirected an attempted kill to a dead player.

Does that mean that the attempted kill had to be from Qvist, or performed by a ninja, though? Otherwise I think I'd have seen a third player targeting you.

I don't think it's likely, but don't think it should be overlooked either.

[Galzria]

Had 2 minutes to catch up on Space's posts. Space, while calling scum teams is almost always frowned upon it's definitely something that's been on my mind because somewhere the bids just... have to make sense. I believe what I've proposed for You/Swan/e/iguana does that.

I'm not against reconsidering my position on Faust. The point that you've made regarding vote history is valid. I was 100% wrong on votes in M100 while you were 100% correct - and (I, as scum) argued you were too perfect to be town.

Here, Faust is in that situation of being 100% wrong. That said, his sample size is far smaller (3 lynches), and Iguana was lynched primarily by those who logged on - so it's not quite fair to hold that one against him (I'm assuming he didn't post D3, but could be wrong).

But if Faust is scum, he could either be the Poisoner (most agree that's unlikely), or something else. If he's not the Poisoner, he wasn't bid 4/8. So what's the scum team that reasonably gets them Poisoner?

That's my primary reason for being on Swan right now. I think he and RR had the best chance based on history (or lack thereof) of bidding 4/8. Yes, this game is completely independent of the first game, but the knowledge of the first game absolutely impacted choices in the bidding process of this game. Who reasonably gets draft #1?