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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 161135 times)

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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1375 on: November 30, 2012, 12:31:24 pm »

QVist, I know that english isn't your language, so you're at a disadvantage to Volt "The Situation" Gloss here, but I'd really appreciate it if you can try to respond to Volt's case, and explain why you feel that his claim is false, and why it took you 45 minutes to decide to come forward with your claim.

/facepalm

+1

I think I try to respond to him, exactly now.

TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1376 on: November 30, 2012, 12:31:48 pm »

Is axxle as categorically in disagreement to claims as I am?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1377 on: November 30, 2012, 12:33:46 pm »

Here's my perspective coming into Day 3:

I'm the Cop.  Against all expectations, I have an investigation result.  I know Frisk is town.

Do I (1) reveal my role and confirm Frisk as town today, or (2) lay low?

If I lay low, and scum nightkills me, I take my knowledge of Frisk's towniness to the grave.  That is bad.

What is the likelihood of scum targeting me? 

They didn't target me or Munch (the obvious targets) Night 2.  They targeted Eevee.  Why?  (reread)  Ah, they thought he was breadcrumbing Cop.

So they are trying to kill the Cop.  They'll try again tonight.  If they think Munch is Doctor (a reasonable conclusion whether correct or not), they won't kill him.  And I don't see any other breadcrumbs they might seize on to think someone else is the Cop.

So they will probably try to kill me tonight.  That means I need to claim at some point today.  But I don't know who the scum are. 

What sequence of events can I set up that could bait the scum into revealing themselves?

...and that is exactly what I did.

I'm playing the long game here for town.  I was well aware that I'd likely be fakecounterclaimed and we'd be in this one-or-the-other situation.  And I was well aware that there's a fair chance I'd lose that battle.  But if so, I wanted it to be under circumstances that the town is best equipped to nail BOTH of the remaining scums on the last two days.

And that's the situation. 
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1378 on: November 30, 2012, 12:36:17 pm »


My point isn't that you should have "agreed blindly."  My point is that, if you were the Cop, as a new player your response should have been much more AGAINST massclaim.

Really, I was expecting the person most likely to fakeclaim me would be Axxle, because of how strongly against massclaim he was.  As someone pointed out, Axxle's reaction to massclaim read as either (1) cop not wanting to be outed or (2) scum scared of massclaim.

Then what about my reaction to massclaim?

Frisk, do you want me to answer this?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1379 on: November 30, 2012, 12:36:34 pm »

Is axxle as categorically in disagreement to claims as I am?
No, but in this situation I think it was a bad idea.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1380 on: November 30, 2012, 12:37:50 pm »

Is axxle as categorically in disagreement to claims as I am?

He's led massclaims in several games.
In M-III, he claimed as Rolecop immediately upon getting an incriminating result.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1381 on: November 30, 2012, 12:38:26 pm »

Volt / Qvist

Why do you think that scum allowed an investigation to go through?

I mean, they had to decide between let the Doctor through or the Cop, right? So the real question is: Why Cop and not Doctor?
WIFOM? Or to get a kill for sure? Actually, I don't understand why killing Eevee and switch the Doc? I think Eevee wasn't someone who was a likely target for the Doctor. Either switching cop and then kill Eevee or switching Doctor and kill someone obvtown at that time. I'm still trying to figure that out.

TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1382 on: November 30, 2012, 12:39:07 pm »

Is axxle as categorically in disagreement to claims as I am?

He's led massclaims in several games.
In M-III, he claimed as Rolecop immediately upon getting an incriminating result.

I just find it hard to believe that he is pushign this hard to keep qvist alive if they are scum buddies if this immediately outs them as scumbuddies.

PPE you dont have to answer my qustion Volt.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1383 on: November 30, 2012, 12:40:17 pm »

Volt / Qvist

Why do you think that scum allowed an investigation to go through?

I think they thought Eevee was the Cop, based on his apparent breadcrumb.  And I think they thought the Doctor caught that same "breadcrumb" as well.  So they expected the Doctor to protect Eevee.  So they shut off the Doctor and killed Eevee, hoping they were hitting the Cop.

Which breadcrumb? To what are you referring to?

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1384 on: November 30, 2012, 12:41:02 pm »


I just find it hard to believe that he is pushign this hard to keep qvist alive if they are scum buddies if this immediately outs them as scumbuddies.

PPE you dont have to answer my qustion Volt.

Ask yourself this:  if Axxle is town, why is he so sure that Qvist is the Cop and I am the fake?
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1385 on: November 30, 2012, 12:41:55 pm »


And your argumentation is wrong. If you're getting killed, you haven't lost the game. Let's say you're lucky, and your partner kills the doctor. Then there are 5 left, 3 VT, 1 scum and 1 cop. It looks bad yeah, but it is far from over as the cop only got one more read which might be VT.

Wrong.  You forget that I've already confirmed a VT today.  So tomorrow we would have:  1 cop, 1 scum, 2 confirmed VT, 1 unconfirmed VT.  We lynch either the scum or the unconfirmed VT.  If we lynch the unconfirmed VT, we just lynch scum on the last day. 

The only way this could fail is if the person I confirmed today (Frisk) happened to be the Doctor.  But he's not, because if he were, he'd have counterclaimed joth on Day 2.  Remember back when I said that part of the reason I investigated Frisk was that he couldn't be the Doctor?  This is why that was so important.

Ok, that might actually be true. It seems that I haven't worked that out in detail as you apparently have.  ::)

TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1386 on: November 30, 2012, 12:43:05 pm »


I just find it hard to believe that he is pushign this hard to keep qvist alive if they are scum buddies if this immediately outs them as scumbuddies.

PPE you dont have to answer my qustion Volt.

Ask yourself this:  if Axxle is town, why is he so sure that Qvist is the Cop and I am the fake?

I have been equally sure and equally wrong in the past?  Confirmation bias?  Take your pick.  But like I said if he is so sure because he is his scum buddy, this would literally lose them the game regardless of whether Qvist is lynched today.  Qvist might be new but Axxle isnt.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1387 on: November 30, 2012, 12:43:34 pm »


And why did you try to start a bandwagon on yuma the night before if you didn't get a result until then? I really like to hear that too.

Why did you try to start a bandwagon on Frisk on Day 2 if you didn't get a result until Day 3?

When did I tried to start a bandwagon? Can you quote me? I just said that CF was the scummiest of all and brought up arguments for that.
You OTOH came into the game with an already well devised case.

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1388 on: November 30, 2012, 12:45:41 pm »

Munch:  I think I asked this before.  If I did and you responded and I missed it, my apologies.

Say you lynch me today.
When I flip Town Cop, who do you think is Qvist's scumpartner?
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1389 on: November 30, 2012, 12:47:38 pm »

Qvist - who do you think is volts partner?

I'm not totally sure. I'm pretty sure it's not yuma (because of the yuma bandwagon) and definitely not Axxle (I think this is obvious). You're cleared.
Who's left? TheMunch or ashersky. TheMunch made the quickhammer and I don't know what to think about this, but I think that he might actually be town. So probably ashersky.


I would prefer to lynch Voltgloss, because I know 100% sure he is scum.
I have 95% certainty that ashersky is town.

Frisk, what's the f:DS history on scum mixing up "town" and "scum" when talking about how people will flip?

Oh man, I did CTRL+F for Qvist and replaced it with Voltgloss, replaced  Axxle with ashersky and replaced scum with town and vice versa. I did a quick reread and noticed that it didn't make sense because I double reversed it. Then I manually changed town and scum and had one left over.
Don't distract from what I was trying to say.

TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1390 on: November 30, 2012, 12:50:35 pm »

Alive:
CF, Qvist, Volt, Axxle, Ash, Yuma, Munch, Right?

I think one of Yuma/Ash is more likely to be scum than Axxle if Qvist is scum, and my brain is telling me Yuma.  He is being the appropriate level of non-participant in a conversation thats blowing up that I could think he is Qvist's or Your Scumbuddy (I know I said Ash before but I'm doubting myself).  I mean thats how I acted during Hydras; After the claim went down it was easier to let shit explode and sit on the sidelines going "Doduo called us scum so Doduo is lying" but not push it so hard that town actually made the right choice.  I could see Yuma doing precisely this.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1391 on: November 30, 2012, 12:50:40 pm »


When did I tried to start a bandwagon? Can you quote me?

@Qvist:  It doesn't strike you as the least bit odd that EVERYONE thinks CF is scummy?  If Everyone thinks CF is scummy that includes scum.  This could be seen as scum pushing a towny for a mislynch or fingering their scum buddy for some cred.  I would agree that CF looks fishy but I think I want to see a flip before I lynch him as the "everyone thinks CF is scummy" can be seen in more than one way.

Huh? If everyone would think that CF is scummy than we wouldn't be in that position. Eevee and Voltgloss has him at #5 and jotheonah at #6. What I meant was directed at you and ashersky. So I make it more direct as it seemed not understandable.
@TheMunch and ashersky? Why don't you vote for Captain_Frisk? But I don't expect that Captain_Frisk gets killed tonight because beside of us 3 there seem no-one willing to vote for him.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1392 on: November 30, 2012, 12:53:43 pm »


Being the first one doesn't give you any credibility. Why not waiting until everyone agrees with the claim? This could have been way better for you. You couldn't await to execute your devised plan, huh?

If I were scum, and if that were my plan, I would absolutely have waited for everyone to agree with massclaim - or not fakeclaimed at all if people didn't respond.

I didn't wait.  Because I'm not scum.  I'm town.  And my plan was not what you claim it was. 

My plan was to discuss massclaim as a possibility to gauge peoples' reactions.  Axxle's, in particular, was very telling.  And yours is telling in retrospect - because it belies your fakeclaim.

And you're doing the same thing again. You assume things and try to deduce conclusions from it. But what if your assumptions are wrong?
If I were scum, and if that were my plan, I would absolutely have waited for everyone to agree with massclaim

But you didn't and this makes you scummy. Because as town you would have waited too. You failed in adapting to town. I can see no valid reason not to wait as town until all (or most) of us agree.

Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1393 on: November 30, 2012, 12:58:12 pm »


I'm not actually sure what you mean with lukewarm no-response response, but I didn't post because I wasn't sure about the odds. You criticized me for that and then I clarified. Now you're critizing me for responding. !?

I'm pointing out that your response is not consistent with your (fake)claimed role.

Why? I wasn't sure. Period. It would be pretty bad for town if I agreed blindly with claiming and then realized later how bad it actually was.

My point isn't that you should have "agreed blindly."  My point is that, if you were the Cop, as a new player your response should have been much more AGAINST massclaim.

Really, I was expecting the person most likely to fakeclaim me would be Axxle, because of how strongly against massclaim he was.  As someone pointed out, Axxle's reaction to massclaim read as either (1) cop not wanting to be outed or (2) scum scared of massclaim.

Why? If I say something like "Please don't massclaim, honestly please don't." it's way too obvious that I'm cop and then I get NK'd and can't get any more info. And your math may actually be valid and ... again I repeat ... I wasn't sure if it actually might be a good idea. Why should I say that I'm against it when I'm actually not sure?

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1394 on: November 30, 2012, 01:00:49 pm »

If I were scum, and if that were my plan, I would absolutely have waited for everyone to agree with massclaim

But you didn't and this makes you scummy. Because as town you would have waited too. You failed in adapting to town. I can see no valid reason not to wait as town until all (or most) of us agree.

I've already explained in detail why I needed to claim today. 
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1395 on: November 30, 2012, 01:02:18 pm »

RL just blew up.  My wife was in a car accident.  Sounds like no one is hurt but I have to go.  I'll respond to collected questions/issues when I am back.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1396 on: November 30, 2012, 01:02:52 pm »

Here's my perspective coming into Day 3:

I'm the Cop.  Against all expectations, I have an investigation result.  I know Frisk is town.

Do I (1) reveal my role and confirm Frisk as town today, or (2) lay low?

If I lay low, and scum nightkills me, I take my knowledge of Frisk's towniness to the grave.  That is bad.

What is the likelihood of scum targeting me? 

They didn't target me or Munch (the obvious targets) Night 2.  They targeted Eevee.  Why?  (reread)  Ah, they thought he was breadcrumbing Cop.

So they are trying to kill the Cop.  They'll try again tonight.  If they think Munch is Doctor (a reasonable conclusion whether correct or not), they won't kill him.  And I don't see any other breadcrumbs they might seize on to think someone else is the Cop.

So they will probably try to kill me tonight.  That means I need to claim at some point today.  But I don't know who the scum are. 

What sequence of events can I set up that could bait the scum into revealing themselves?

...and that is exactly what I did.

I'm playing the long game here for town.  I was well aware that I'd likely be fakecounterclaimed and we'd be in this one-or-the-other situation.  And I was well aware that there's a fair chance I'd lose that battle.  But if so, I wanted it to be under circumstances that the town is best equipped to nail BOTH of the remaining scums on the last two days.

And that's the situation.

The emphasis is on "some point today", not a few hours after day start. I don't know if I understood the role of Cop right, but "setting up a sequence of events" isn't something a Cop is doing, it's something scum is doing.

So, you just outed TheMunch as Doctor, great pro-town play! So you expect to get killed already laying breadcrumbs for your scumpartner.

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1397 on: November 30, 2012, 01:04:13 pm »

FYI I will be VLA for most of today, I have asked the spectators to lock the thread should a lynch occur however.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1398 on: November 30, 2012, 01:05:19 pm »

Last thing


So, you just outed TheMunch as Doctor, great pro-town play!

The possibility of Munch being Doctor was already discussed at the very beginning of the thread

So I'm alive... thats fun.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

Sigh....

First I was going to be shocked that you were actually still alive.  I figured you must be the doctor if you hammered without waiting for counter claim, and thus you must be town.

There are however 2 other options:

1. Mafia thought you must be a crazy townie, and then the real doctor will protect you.
2. You are mafia.

You voting for me points toward #1.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1399 on: November 30, 2012, 01:07:54 pm »

FYI I will be VLA for most of today, I have asked the spectators to lock the thread should a lynch occur however.

There will be no lynch today if I can help it.
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