Oh man, that was tense. Pretty much right after my first theory went down, I was playing a "go big or go home" strategy with my theories. I didn't know if even a single one was necessarily correct. But here's basically what happened early game:
Someone (sorry, can't remember who) placed a seal on an ingredient I knew about (I had three ingredients contingent on each other, with two possibilities). I looked at the data and figured, hey, they have to know the correct version of the one colour I have to hedge on. So it's very likely set 2. I ran with that, assuming those three were correct, placed a little faith in other theories that were published and became fairly confident - but not certain - that all of the 6 published around round 5 were correct. From there I made a bold play going into round 5 of publishing a 7th theory completely blind, but fortunately whoever went before me published the other theory.
This could have easily gone horribly wrong for me. I won through a bit of skill, and a lot of luck in when others published their own theories.