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[yuma]

deadline is march 4th. we have time... not that no lynch would be terrible.

I agree we have time and should absolutely make the best of it, but I do think we should be wary of entering into a MXXI situation where we spend too much time and lose some of our clarity.

[liopoil]

scum beloved princess isn't vengeful because there are two teams, and town PRs.

[liopoil]

Yuma, the testing if I'm scum thing only works if it's on robz, because robz is never going to agree to test it. If it was on you he would have to put you at L-1, which he won't do.

[Jimmmmm]

I agree with yuma that a Godfather seems bastardlyish in a closed setup if we don't know that there is one. But a Godfather+RB/JK? Come on.

[yuma]

I feel like I should have more to talk about in this game, especially since we are in such a pressure situation, but kinda feel like everything I need to say I have already said and would just be cluttering up the thread further.

So to summarize where I am at.

I think Robz is scum. It could be Jimmm, but I think Robz is more likely and am willing to bet the game on it. Yes, there is a chance that lio is the last scum, but it is such a small chance that I am not even seriously considering it.

It appears, however, that we are moving toward a no-lynch. I guess I am ok with that. But am not going to actually vote no lynch until lio is done with his analysis. This isn't to prevent scum from sending us into night before lio gets his thoughts down... I think that would be a pretty blatant and obvious scumplay so I am not worried about it happening. But rather just to make sure it isn't done on accident... Although if it happened we would have a new category for our mafia dictionary: "derp no-lynch."

I am still willing to respond to questions and posts that people bring up, but I guess I just don't see myself bringing up unique or new information.

[Jimmmmm]

I was thinking about the Neighbourhood. How beneficial/detrimental do we think it is to Maquis/MU? I'm not saying this would have been the right thing to do, but if shraeye had activated his IC status Day 1, and theorel and lio, raerae and Munch had claimed confirmed non-MU, suddenly we have 5 "confirmed" non-MU, before theorel's even investigated anyone. That's one third of the whole town. Had all this come out on a later Day, it would have made it a heck of a lot easier to narrow down the MUs than the Maquises (Maquii??). Also, Munch had two people who he knew the roles of, and who had reason to believe he was more likely Town than the average player. So Maquis are going to be less likely to be lynched since one of them may be protected by two Townies, and more likely to hit MU if they're scumhunting, or PRs if they're PR-hunting. Case in point, Maquis hit MU Night 1 (unless of course it was Eevee and MU aimed for theorel), while MU killed raerae, probably someone Maquis never even considered killing. Also, Rolecop's obviously quite powerful, but Bomb? What good could Bomb possibly do for a lone mcmc once Galz was gone. Bomb in a 2-man team has a 50% chance of being utterly useless in helping that teams win chances. Well okay, it gives him something to claim that will reduce his chance of being NKed. So that's something. But still, I don't think it's that wonderful.

So it seems to me that once you consider the effect of the Neighbourhood, a 3-person MU team and 2-person Maquis team isn't nearly as unbalanced as Robz says it is. And it also seems that the most likely reason that only one person died on Night 4 is because there was only one scumteam. And I don't think trying to guess how the mod would set up the game is nearly as convincing as actual real solid evidence, which we have. So yeah, I'm actually thinking there is one MU left. It could very well be yuma, but Robz' insistence that that's impossible is increasing my suspicion of him.

[liopoil]

nice catch, I forgot about that! (obviously because I'm not actually a neighbor, but a godfather-jailkeeper). We did consider claiming D1, but decided against it. not sure if that was the right choice. I had thought that there was a good chance that there was another neighborhood which was confirmed not-maquis. But that is a very good way to balance the setup. I don't think neighbor was that weak of a role for munch. There was a very small chance I was ever going to vote for him until near the end of the game. He also got to tell glooble everything we thought. So I agree now about there being 3 MU, 2 Maquis. Here's another reason:

if there's a third MU, then they killed ashersky N5 for some reason.
if there's a third Maquis, then they didn't kill anyone N4, and roleblocked/jailed Yuma. The roleblocker/jailer was likely 1-shot, and so would likely be all used up by N4.

The balance is even better if Yuma is the last scum, and is a one shot lightning rod, because that is almost always a negative utility for scum.

[liopoil]

I'm not going to quote as large a percentage of his posts now. A) to save time, and B) because galzria is dead at this point. I am going to pay more attention to his interactions with munch/glooble, because Yuma asked me to and not much will come from his interactions with mcmc once robz has claimed.

This is very frustrating, I did not announce intent post twice and go to bed. I announced intent, came back a few hours later expecting to find at most one page of new things, an answer to the question that had still been out there and I would hammer. I instead came back to 6 pages and a mini wagon on a second player, i believe cuzz was not even a L-1 anymore(will check this when im not on movile)So I decided wow maybe lynching cuzz isn't the right idea anymore, I couldn't put my vote down untill I read the 6 new pages which I was not planning on nor wanted to do 7 hours before waking up for class, so I went to bed. Again expecting to wake up to a few more posts, I would read everything and post my thoughts which would have included a vote for cuzz. Instead I once agai woke up to a surprise, thread was locked and cuzz had been hammered.
In summary please stop saying I posted and went to bed as though I didn't care about the cuzz lynch, the game exploded in the few hours I was gone, this is not a blitz game and we were not at deadline.

Does anyone dispute that this is a perfectly satisfactory answer? At least for Mcmc's hammer not coming... I mean, he's exactly right here the timeframe of it, because I was very active that day and I was around when he said he would hammer and I was still around late at night when he reappeared in the middle of shraeye's mini-wagon. He couldn't even hammer then, since Cuzz wasn't L-1. It was really late at night, I don't think he had a responsibility to stay on and wait it out or even contribute, we weren't at deadline.

He defended mcmc a fair bit D2 before he claimed, which I guess supports his claim being true. He said he had a reason to think shraeye was scum but wasn't going to say it yet. I can't find where he says it. He also talks about munch a fair bit.

Okay, I do think the Mcmc lynch is a mistake. I am a 1-shot Tracker. Last night, I tracked mcmcsalot. He took no action. I think this makes him significantly less likely to be scum, given what we know already.

FWIW, I have some (disastrous) experience as a Tracker (in M-XII, where I epic fail at it), but I still think my psychology for picking who to track was pretty much on in that game, so I stuck with it. I don't want to track the obvious people, because the obvious people aren't going to kill anyone (because they expect the tracker to be watching them). This is mafia 101, even in games without a tracker for some reason the less suspicious partner does the kill (Galz always did the kill in M-II; I was more suspicious, even though it didn't matter). So I was not going to track the people who came under heavy suspicion yesterday, which includes shraeye, Jimm, and Eevee basically. I was never going to track Galzria because he's just too obvious a person anyway, and there's always that likelihood he gets nightkilled just for being Galzria--which I bet is what happened here; I doubt a scum faction really thought they were shooting scum in Galz. So I wanted to pick someone who I thought could be scum, but who didn't know that I thought they could be scum. Like, Glooble and Dsell I really didn't think were scum, so I wasn't picking them. Also, just from what I know about my brother, he's like a really gung-ho guy (he posted his phone number in blitz whatever for goodness sake, so people could tell him when the lynch was happening), and it seemed reasonable if he was on a scumfaction he'd be likely to be the one taking the shot, just because he wanted to, in addition to everything else.

Well, he didn't do anything. I've thought about this a lot; this means he's probably not scum, right? If he were scum, and he were on Galzria's team, well, Galz is the rolecop, and it's pretty likely Galz can't take the shot AND rolecop someone, so unless it's a three person team, Mcmc takes the shot there. If Mcmc were SK, he has to take the shot. Of course there's a perfectly plausible scenario where Mcmc is on some other team, and for whatever reason was not the person who took the shot.

But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.

claim post! midway through D2. re-reading it, it sounds genuine to me, as have his most of his posts D6. I really can't find much more to analyze in this post, but you should all read it carefully to decide if you think it is a real claim.

vote: ashersky

For this:

I will not put my name to a shraeye lynch. It feels too reactive and way too obvious. I really don't think scum shraeye would be so sure of himself as he pushed for a lynch. When you drive a wagon as hard as that, you're taking a huge risk that the heat is going to fall on you if you're wrong, and that's a risk town is much more likely to take than scum. It just doesn't add up for me.

This reasoning is good.  We should push for a separate lynch and see where we go.  Mcmc is the most likely candidate, with I think everyone but Robz supporting or okay with it.

vote: mcmcsalot

Agreeing with Glooble that I'm not being like scumshraeye.

Then immediately reverting to me, because I'm the most likely candidate.

unvote based on Robz's new info.

Back to vote: shraeye as our most likely candidate, our most informative flip, and my second highest scum read (after Eevee, who no one seems to want to lynch).

Woah, this is a huge contradiction, Glooble.

I don't see the contradiction here, but still, either bussing, or not maquis. (duh)

Oops, nevermind. I read Glooble as saying he opposed shraeye lynch, and then later saying shraeye was his second choice... but the second statement was ash. Forget it!

could he have done that on purpose? Could be he decided to bus, then realized his bussing was wrong...

Yeah. It's just going to be Eevee or no one, now.

(Of course I can see it: "You've lynched Eevee, the Town-Doctor/Jailkeeper/Vigilante/Neighborizer.")

Well, there's nothing else to do, and he is a scumread.

Vote: Eevee

This feels weird, I guess I almost never actually cast hammer votes. Well anyway, here we go.

Hammers eevee. He had said he was willing to do this for quite some time. However, he was also not against a shraeye, liopoil, or munch lynch. If he's MU of course he's okay with those lynches. If he's maquis then he included munch to distance himself from him, since munch wasn't going to be lynched. Overall I think this is a scummy post.

His body is found stuffed into an ore processing shaft with a phaser wound in his back.  The autopsy finds he was also poisoned, strangely.

The good news, though, is no one else died last night. The bad news is that shraeye was killed. He was Jake Sisko, Station-aligned Innocent Child.

phasered and poisoned. I think he was almost certainly doublekilled, which means all five scum were okay with shraeye dying. robz on either team had a scumread of sorts on shraeye, so killing shraeye does make sense. Glooble might have blocked the MU kill I guess...

D3

Okay, obviously, if someone is  roleblocker, they should claim, because they found scum in all likelihood.

If the kill was doctored, jailed, etc.,.... then don't say anything.

I agree with this.  Also Robz, who did you track?  What did you find out? (unless you want to wait to share your information)

If robz was maquis, then he also isn't a tracker, and would munch really ask him this? it's possible they planned this.
Nobody. I was one-shot, man.

To me, this just feels like m-xvi, where all my reads were wrong, day after day after day.

A lot of people have read this as scummy, namely Yuma I think. But really, he has had bad reads. eevee, cuzz, shraeye, mcmc to name a few, and of course he was absolutely certain I was scum. these reads seem to be a little bit TOO blatantly wrong for him to be scum. Also I especially think he can't be maquis, because if he was maquis he knew I was town as soon as theorel claimed.

I feel like waving some of my reads. Munch specifically. With shraeye being town, I don't think it's fair to munch that I keep to the evidence that points to him next. I've just been very wrong.

Ashersky and Glooble, I may have gone too far toward saying they are definitely town. I still think they are town though.

Mcmc is a night evidence based read, so that would remains for now.

states not-suspicion on the three people who were alive then that we know are scum. But he has good reason for the mcmc read.

One quick thought and potential question: If Robz's had been roleblocked would he have received a different result than a result if mcmc really hadn't targeted anyone? Or would have the two scenarios have resulted in the same result? This potentially opens up a scenario in which mcmc could be the SK and could be further analyzed if someone claims to have blocked Robz at some point down the road.

No, I asked Jo about that. My result makes it clearer that Mcmc didn't target anyone, not that I was roleblocked.

good to know! so is there anyone that glooble might have blocked that could matter?

How exactly does a tracker work? if mcmc had made an action, does it tell robz what he did? who he targeted? both?

[Robz888]

Liopoil: Here's how tracking works. I pick someone. I learn the names of any person that the person I picked targeted. My result was "No one." Which means mcmcsalot targeted no one on the night I tracked him.

(For the sake of your education, a similar role is "Watcher." A watcher chooses someone. Then the watcher learns the name of any player who targeted the player he chose.)

[Robz888]

By the way, I think what Jimm says about three MUs does make sense, and it makes me more comfortable considering that option. Although the only result of that line of thinking from my perspective is that yuma is scum. I've said I don't think yuma is scum because it doesn't make sense for him to be partnered with Munch/Glooble, but it could be I was just making a huge oversight and I should look at his Galz/mcmc stuff. But why does MU yuma shoot ashersky last night, and not, uh, Jim? Actually, I guess my really good relationship with ashersky could explain it. Maybe he was too worried to face both me and ash today, since we are very much on the same page.

My one big caveat to jimm's post, though, is that it relies on information about the neighborhood that comes from liopoil. Which again, under my godfather liopoil scenario, is just fabrications based on Munch's participation in a neighborhood with raerae. And I guess I should expand on my thoughts about godfather liopoil. I doubt he's totally immune from investigation. Maybe it's something weird where like he investigates scum if the SK cop investigates him, but town if the other two do. That seems more likely to me than a totally immune to investigation godfather. As I've said, liopoil fits being munch and glooble's partner 1,000 times more neatly than anyone else.

But okay. I see what Jimm is saying.

[liopoil]

Jimmmmm, hurry up and vote for robz so we can make him start thinking about people who aren't IC's being scum! I mean, if you think I might be scum, then obviously don't...

thanks robz.  I was considering why you might claim one-shot tracker during D2 as jailkeeper/roleblocker scum...

[Robz888]

Jimmmmm, hurry up and vote for robz so we can make him start thinking about people who aren't IC's being scum! I mean, if you think I might be scum, then obviously don't...

thanks robz.  I was considering why you might claim one-shot tracker during D2 as jailkeeper/roleblocker scum...

I am thinking about people who aren't ICs being scum! I agree yuma for MU, definitely, if it's MU, and hey, jimm has a good theory on that.

[liopoil]

yes I know, but like you said it makes much more sense if you know that you can trust me, because of the neighborhood.

actually, even if I'm scum there still is a neighborhood, it's just smaller. And why would I make up the confirmed not-MU thing if theorel already cleared me of that, and nobody was actually ever suspected me of that?

[Robz888]

yes I know, but like you said it makes much more sense if you know that you can trust me, because of the neighborhood.

actually, even if I'm scum there still is a neighborhood, it's just smaller. And why would I make up the confirmed not-MU thing if theorel already cleared me of that, and nobody was actually ever suspected me of that?

The confirmed non-MU thing explains your actions re-raerae and munch throughout the game, so you owuld make it up to explain your friendship with munch and rae.

[liopoil]

hmmm, fair point.

[Jimmmmm]

Robz, do you really believe that someone would be both a Godfather AND a RB/JK?

[liopoil]

D3 continued.

Still would lynch Ashersky but Vote: Robz.  I have very particular people I'm interested in whether or not they will jump on this case.

Ridiculous. I have repeatedly asked you why you are suspicious of me--you keep alluding to evidence without actually presenting it, and I keep asking you to be explicit, and you keep ignoring me.

Other people are raising issues about me that I think have merit. I don't know what you're doing.

I'm confused as to what munch is doing as well. he's a neighbor!

So... ultimately, I am really torn between the two of them. They are neck and neck, though for totally different reasons. I guess I do ultimately lean Vote: Glooble. His contributions are less than liopoil's, and they lessen as time goes on.

Doesn't necessarily need to do this if he is glooble's partner. If he kept his vote on me I might have been lynched. Nothing has really fit with robz being maquis anyway.

--mcmc bomb claim--

Uh, I think you're logic there is off, and you claiming was not a good idea. Because scum are going to kill someone, and of all the people they could kill, it's best if they kill you. Imagine if both scum teams shot you: two dead scum! Now they'll just kill someone else instead.

I understand the instinct for survival, but that was probably a huge mistake.

Nevertheless, I believe your claim.

I agree that claiming was bad for town. It was good for scum!mcmc though, and I think I pointed this out at the time. I don't think mcmcpartner!robz points this out.

D4

The only conf. scum left is mcmc.

Did a breezy read-through of Galz to try and figure out who is his partner.

Galz defended Jimm early.

Said nobody was really lurking.

Said mcmc was slightly scummy.

Late in Day 1, said the four scummiest people were mcmc, jimm, shraeye, and cuzz. He ended up voting for Cuzz.

Says Theorel is town, and reiterates scum reads on jimm and mcmcsalot.

That's everything from him.

I also looked to see who voted for him, and not one person ever did (except me, jokingly, in RVS).

The part I bolded is I think maybe a big clue, because half those people are dead town. Now, does Galz put his scummate in this group? I'd think he might. Jimm or mcmc. He mentions that pair again, too. There's a case to be made that one of these people would be his partner. Since I don't think it's mcmc because of the tracking, that would make me think of Jimm as a top suspect to be Galz's partner.

Of course, it could just be that Galz exempted his partner from placement on his own suspicion list.

This sounds like a town post to me. He was right about the Jimmmmm-mcmc thing. We really should have seen this and lynched mcmc D4 instead of Dsell. I mean, I was probably a better lynch than Dsell...

We have <Robz, yuma, Jimm, mcmcsalot, Dsell> where exactly 1 or 2 of those people are scum.

We have <liopoil> where exactly 1 of liopoil is scum.

Liopoil is scum. I guarantee it, 99%.

silly robz. This again points to him not being maquis because he would know that I am town. That combined with the tracker result claim makes me fairly confident that if he is scum, he is MU.

D5

Vote: mcmcsalot

Hammers mcmc. this was the main reason I had for suspecting robz. I thought it was likely a last minute bus-hammer. I also think that day might have been too short. A ton of the stuff we are discussing today should have been discussed then. I thought this vote was a bit of a 180, but he had mentioned several times that he thinks at this point that he thinks his tracker result doesn't hold as much weight anymore. Really, I don't actually see any really strong reason for suspecting Robz.

Nothing significant has happened regarding Robz being scum D6, but his posts have read townier today then before, just on vibes.

So, after the mcmc flip I was actually fairly sure it was robz. Now I'm not really seeing it as much. I feel it's probably Yuma now, but I really never have given him a very close look. Hopefully will get to reading him soon.

[liopoil]

that took a long time. 400 posts is a lot of reading!

[liopoil]

thoughts?

[Jimmmmm]

Not really, other than I'm with you in thinking it's probably yuma, and he's MU. That would explain only one kill Night 4, and is a better explanation as to why ash died than Robz killing him (although he could have done it for this exact line of reasoning). Scum yuma must have known that today's kill would most likely come down to either him or Robz, and if he leaves ash alive, ash most likely makes me an IC and argues strongly for the yuma lynch.

[yuma]

Obviously I disagree about your conclusions on me, but more importantly I disagree about how you got there. It actually makes me question whether or not you read my posts earlier about Robz. I feel like I detailed pretty clearly how Robz chose glooble over you at a point where I believe it was obvious that glooble was going to be the lynch.

I will outline this again though...

For starters was Robz's abrupt change in read on Glooble starting from day1, caused by a reaction to votes that "felt genuine." I don't know what to make of that, except to say that to me it was not genuine and if people had actually applied pressure day1 we could have had a scum lynch and would probably be game over, town win at this point...

Before Robz put glooble to a vote, both lio and glooble were at L-2, this was the breakdown...
Glooble (4): ashersky, theorel, yuma. liopoil, {L-2}
Robz888 (1): TheMunch
liopoil (4): Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble, Robz {L-2}
TheMunch (1): Dsell

At this point the only players not voting glooble or lio were themunch and dsell. Let's go back and look at what they had to say before that point.

Themunch:

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

. Anyone remember this... Themunch was not voting for lio under any circumstances. Robz knew this and knew there would be one less player capable of voting for lio.

Dsell:

I am very torn on Liopoil and Glooble, to be honest. I feel like Glooble is very very very hard to read, even though I've played scum with him before. And Liopoil is hard to read because he's new and I've never seen him play.

Liopoil has seemed slightly scummier, but that is basically what I would expect from a newbie vs a known lurker.

I suppose I prefer a Liopoil lynch.

Dsell says that he is torn, ultimately decides that he prefers lio, but could go either way... as evidenced by him actually going toward glooble in the end.

So from robz's perspective he knows that at most he will be able to get 1 of the two players not voting onto his not-partner lio.

Let's look at the people voting for glooble and see if they would be willing to move that way:

ash:

I think Glooble is more likely to go through.  Liopoil is looking bad, but I think less scummy and more newbie.

although he does later say that he is willing to switch, but really only to end the day. He has been voting glooble since the beginning of the day and I think is very unlikely to switch

yuma:

My previous read on lio (from late day2) changed a gut scum read into a non-scum read. I still lean toward town on him.

I had basically been on glooble all day and was unlikely to change.

lio: obviously wasn't going to change toward himself.

theorel: theorel started out liking the lynch toward lio, but eventually settled pretty steadfastly on glooble... actually scratch that, theorel kinda of maintained a bit of an even willingness to lynch either glooble or lio all day.

As for the players voting for lio:

Jimmm: never really seemed like he would be voting for glooble
mcmc: had previously voted for glooble
glooble: wasn't going to change obviously.

so at this point Robz needed to find 2 more players to get onto lio. themunch/yuma/lio were certainly out. ash/theorel/dsell were a toss up either way with the first two leaning glooble and dsell leaning lio; mcmc might switch back the other way and then he would need 3 players! Not great odds of getting lio lynched if you ask me, what looked more likely was that glooble would get lynched w/o Robz on him.

[yuma]

But honestly I have expected myself to be the lynch today--as I also expected to be lynched yesterday. I said repeatedly that if I were in the opposite position... that is if someone had claimed LR and it didn't go off, I would probably be lynching that person.

That we were able to get mcmc yesterday was great! It gave town the chance to win. But I was very surprised--not necessarily by the result--but rather that he was lynches instead of me.

But here we are and I still think we have a chance to win... And I think lynching robz is the best chance for that. It could be Jimmmm, but I doubt it. It could be lio, but I highly doubt it.

[Jimmmmm]

You're arguing that Robz is Maquis correct? If so, why did he not kill anyone Night 4?

[yuma]

You're arguing that Robz is Maquis correct? If so, why did he not kill anyone Night 4?

I don't know! I really don't! I have ideas... but nothing solid. I mean, there is the idea that instead of killing he roleblocked me because he couldn't do both. But like I said before if he did that then why would he pretend to have tracked mcmc? Or did he also roleblock mcmc that night? But if he did that then did Galz perform the kill? Well if Galz performed the kill... and we can assume that he rolecoped, then how come Robz couldn't also nightkill and block? I mean I am just going in circles here.

And I am not sure Robz is marquis... sorry maquis. he could also be MU. I was just pointing out that I think the evidence points more toward Robz being maquis than it does toward me.

[Jimmmmm]

What evidence is there to suggest Robz is MU?