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[Robz888]

Okay, back for being gone this weekend.

It seems like we are mainly looking at Glooble and liopoil? These are both lynches I could support, though I too should do some re-reading.

Glooble's emotional response to me calling him out on Day 1 read very, very townie to me, which has always made me unwilling to lynch him. But I could have been wrong, and have been wrong about a number of people. Glooble's certainly posting his normal amount, which isn't very much, but I think Glooble tends to draw scum more than town. Which is not to say that he's scum here, just that his lurking behavior is almost more a scum thing than a town thing, just because he's scum so much. I particularly remember lurking Serial Killer Glooble in M-VI.

My issues with liopoil are the same as they have been; he's on the lighter side of posting, and doesn't really have a consistent voice. I seem him as sort of a joiner. But I should re-read.

The only people I'm NOT really looking at at all are ashersky--he's simply town, all this craziness is him being town--and mcmcsalot--due to my Night 1 tracking result.

[liopoil]

soft deadline means we try to lynch someone by a certain point before the deadline? If so then I agree with the 6th.

I thought we were mainly looking at asherky and glooble.

[Jimmmmm]

I've been mulling over the possibility of Robz and mcmc being scumbuddies. I think if Robz is Town then mcmc is almost certainly Town as well (equivalently if mcmc is scum Robz is almost certainly scum as well). Of course mcmc could be a Ninja, but otherwise he'd have to be scum without any targeting night actions with a team-mate also without any targeting night actions, which seems very unlikely.

So until I see a reason to believe otherwise, I'm going to assume that if Robz is Town then so is mcmc. This means that any votes on mcmc should be diverted to Robz.

Anyway, the obvious response to this is, why would Robz go to such effort to try to clear mcmc? Isn't that a really risky scum play? Well yes in theory. But in practice the fact that it being risky is the obvious response makes it significantly less risky. We've seen Robz try to give his partner (joth) obvTown status before:

To each of you:

Why is Munch-Joth impossible?

Because Jo isn't scum. I have like absolute faith in my read on him here. I think it's just as likely your episode with Ins yesterday was a scum gambit, Galz, than Joth being scum. Granted, I think there's a 99% chance you are town, and that whole thing was real. So too my town read on Joth. There's no way he plays like this as scum.

So Robz is clearly not above trying to clear his scumbuddy of suspicion. Based on this thought I gave Robz a re-read to look at his interactions with mcmc. He expresses a Town read on mcmc early in day 1, which lasts for most of day 1, and then gradually turns into a slight scum read. He then suddenly has a Town read again in day 2, which is consistent with him basing that off his night action, and is the thing that is most making me think the idea is unlikely. But I do think it's possible. Tracker is a pretty convenient way to clear someone without pretending to be a Cop, which wouldn't even work properly, and 1-shot is a pretty convenient way to avoid being nightkilled. And given that Robz has come under hardly any suspicion all game (which is actually a little suspicious in itself - this is Robz we're talking about), I can definitely see this as something Robz could cook up to save his buddy. Also, them being brothers makes it more likely that people will believe a Town read one has on the other. Is this particularly convincing? I don't think so. But I do think it's something to think about, and I'd like to know what other people think about it.

[Robz888]

@Jimm: My tracking result is genuine, and probably the best evidence I have for it is that the psychology of why I tracked mcmc isn't something that could be faked. I.e., there were actually very few correct tracking targets for me, and Mcmc was definitely the best one.

But that said, I totally see why you would raise this; you are correct that treating my scumbuddy as obvtown has been a recent scum tactic for me that was marvelously successful. I was really surprised that no one else raised this when I claimed, instead of just basically accepting it and moving on.

In fact, there is no one more skeptical of these sorts of claims than I am, and if it was anyone but me, I would have at least suggested lynching one to give certain info on the other (because scum/town is the least likely option here, it's more likely town/town or scum/scum from your perspective). However, I worry that we're at the stage of the game where it's too late to do a purely informational lynch.

[liopoil]

I would agree that the two are likely the same alignment. mcmc being town and robz scum seems like the only plausible way this might not be true. however, Robz would be less likely to claim and clear mcmc in this case. This leaves us with the question, "if we lynch one them, which one should we lynch?". I think it is robz. there are many scenarios:

lynch mcmc, flip town. Gives robz some towncred, but not that much.
lynch mcmc, flip MU. Robz could be the third one, and makes his tracker claim very suspicious
lynch mcmc, flip Maquis. Again, Robz under lots of pressure
lynch mcmc, flip SK. Virtually impossible. Robz must have lied about his role, but why would he?
lynch Robz, flip town. We know mcmc took no night action night one, giving him more town cred than dsell probably.
lynch Robz, flip MU. Why would he claim unless mcmc is his partner?
lynch Robz, flip Maquis. ^^see above.
lynch Robz, flip SK. Virtually impossible. Why would he claim? To save him from getting NKed?

So robz seems like a much more informative lynch, and I think he is a bit more likely to flip scum. However, we know that chances are that neither of them are the SK, which makes them more likely to be town. Robz is probably the most informative lynch we have right now, but right now I don't really have much of a reason to believe that he is scum. I do not think that we should lynch mcmc today unless he does something really scummy.

[liopoil]

also if robz is town it his lynch does not hurt us as much because he is just a VT at this point. Still, robz is right that he must have gotten pretty lucky to get a good tracker target as his partner. And our need to lynch scum is far greater than our need for info.

[TheMunch]

I've been mulling over the possibility of Robz and mcmc being scumbuddies. I think if Robz is Town then mcmc is almost certainly Town as well (equivalently if mcmc is scum Robz is almost certainly scum as well). Of course mcmc could be a Ninja, but otherwise he'd have to be scum without any targeting night actions with a team-mate also without any targeting night actions, which seems very unlikely.

So until I see a reason to believe otherwise, I'm going to assume that if Robz is Town then so is mcmc. This means that any votes on mcmc should be diverted to Robz.

Anyway, the obvious response to this is, why would Robz go to such effort to try to clear mcmc? Isn't that a really risky scum play? Well yes in theory. But in practice the fact that it being risky is the obvious response makes it significantly less risky. We've seen Robz try to give his partner (joth) obvTown status before:

To each of you:

Why is Munch-Joth impossible?

Because Jo isn't scum. I have like absolute faith in my read on him here. I think it's just as likely your episode with Ins yesterday was a scum gambit, Galz, than Joth being scum. Granted, I think there's a 99% chance you are town, and that whole thing was real. So too my town read on Joth. There's no way he plays like this as scum.

So Robz is clearly not above trying to clear his scumbuddy of suspicion. Based on this thought I gave Robz a re-read to look at his interactions with mcmc. He expresses a Town read on mcmc early in day 1, which lasts for most of day 1, and then gradually turns into a slight scum read. He then suddenly has a Town read again in day 2, which is consistent with him basing that off his night action, and is the thing that is most making me think the idea is unlikely. But I do think it's possible. Tracker is a pretty convenient way to clear someone without pretending to be a Cop, which wouldn't even work properly, and 1-shot is a pretty convenient way to avoid being nightkilled. And given that Robz has come under hardly any suspicion all game (which is actually a little suspicious in itself - this is Robz we're talking about), I can definitely see this as something Robz could cook up to save his buddy. Also, them being brothers makes it more likely that people will believe a Town read one has on the other. Is this particularly convincing? I don't think so. But I do think it's something to think about, and I'd like to know what other people think about it.

I really like this post.

[TheMunch]

To me, this just feels like m-xvi, where all my reads were wrong, day after day after day.

This is an interesting post.

Although I have my own reasons for being suspicious of Robz, I also like the validation of someone else coming to the same conclusion.  This doesn't preclude the possibility of Jimmm being scum of any kind manipulating Robz play in previous games to generate a scum read on him, but given that the line of reasoning that Jimmm is going down is similar enough to what my mind was already thinking that I'd be on board.

[Robz888]

To me, this just feels like m-xvi, where all my reads were wrong, day after day after day.

This is an interesting post.

Although I have my own reasons for being suspicious of Robz, I also like the validation of someone else coming to the same conclusion.  This doesn't preclude the possibility of Jimmm being scum of any kind manipulating Robz play in previous games to generate a scum read on him, but given that the line of reasoning that Jimmm is going down is similar enough to what my mind was already thinking that I'd be on board.

What are they?

[theorel]

I dunno....I'm dubious of Robz faking the tracking result to clear mcmcsalot.  I find it more likely that Robz would post a true tracking result in order to gain town credit.  I did post similar reasoning earlier today about Robz' buddying tactics, but regarding Robz+ashersky.  I find his behavior towards ashersky more suspicious then his tracking result on mcmcsalot.  I would say that if we lynched Robz and he flipped scum Tracker that I would be more suspicious of ashersky than mcmcsalot.  If he flipped scum not-tracker then I would find it highly unlikely that mcmcsalot is not his partner, because that would be a ridiculously bold fake-claim not knowing ahead-of-time whether or not mcmcsalot actually did something night1.

[Robz888]

The best case scenario for clearing us would have been for either me or Mcmc to die in the night, rather than wasting the lynch on one of us. But I assume the scum secretly agree with that, which is why they haven't.

[yuma]

I disagree with Jimmm and lio. I don't think mcmc and robz are linked. I actually find it more likely that Robz is a scum-tracker and reported a real investigation of mcmc. His rationale for why he tracked mcmc as town is the same justification a scum tracker would have--because they would want to find someone that used their powers night1, because a cop would use powers night1... So that is why I believe robz's claim to be true and makes mcmc less likely to be scum...

But I think robz as scum and mcmc as town is more likely than both scum. Despite that I think Robz isn't the best place to look today as we have better options, but he is a person to keep an eye on.

[liopoil]

but if robz is scum and mcmc town than why would robz tell us that  mcmc didn't take an action? sure he gains a little town-cred, but I don't think that is enough.

[yuma]

but if robz is scum and mcmc town than why would robz tell us that  mcmc didn't take an action? sure he gains a little town-cred, but I don't think that is enough.

well you are giving it to him right now... Look I don't know if Robz is scum or not. But just sitting here I can think of a handful of reason why Robz would day this:

1. he doesn't want to lynch mcmc. Because scum!robz wants to kill the cop for the scum faction that he is apart of. But he knows that mcmc isn't the cop because mcmc didn't use a night action like any good cop would. Therefore he wants the lynch to turn elsewhere with the hopes of forcing a cop to claim--and then be NK--or be lynched.

2. if mcmc is town then Robz gets some town cred for saving a townie from a lynch. (this you have already addressed isn't much)

3. Robz gets credit for just outing himself as a tracker. It is a bold move. Scum isn't often bold, so Robz could get credit that way.

4. It also makes him less likely to be nightkilled, something I am sure that scum!robz would be worried about as scum after seeing what happened to Galz--Robz has been a pretty popular nightkill choice in the past. Outing himself as tracker makes another faction less likely to kill him as that other faction would be gunning for the cop specific to that faction.

5. If mcmc is scum (remember that Robz wouldn't know mcmc's alignment) and is on the other scum faction then Robz, at least in my mind, is less likely to be mcmc's partner in crime making him more townie.

Again I don't know if Robz is scum, I am leaning toward less likely than likely. But the above are some really good reasons for why scum!robz would do what he did. There may be more, those are the ones I just thought of sitting here typing this up. If you only look at point #2, then yes it isn't much, but all together there are potentially compelling reasons.

[mcmcsalot]

I do agree with yuma, and it brings my town read on robz down some though I completely believe an informational lynch is not what we want to today, I think it provides a great out for liopoil, my top scum read, and takes the focus off of our other viable lynches based on scummy play.

[liopoil]

I did not say I want an informational lynch, nor do I support an informational lynch. We need to lynch scum.

[liopoil]

I guess to be fair you didn't say that I did, but you did suggest that it was "an out" for me.

[mcmcsalot]

So robz seems like a much more informative lynch, and I think he is a bit more likely to flip scum. However, we know that chances are that neither of them are the SK, which makes them more likely to be town. Robz is probably the most informative lynch we have right now, but right now I don't really have much of a reason to believe that he is scum. I do not think that we should lynch mcmc today unless he does something really scummy.

I suggested than an informational lynch would be an out for you, a way for mafia to lynch town without many repercussions, because if you lynch either me or robz and we flip town you can just say oh well now we know. You did not say you wanted an informational lynch but the above paragraph confused me a bit.

I may have just read this wrong, do you believe lynching either me or robz is a good idea? In this paragraph you mention twice Robz is the most informative lynch we have, but that you don't have a scum read on him. Then you state you don't want to lynch me unless I do something scummy. So it looks to me like you are putting out null reads and saying we could lynch me or robz for informational purposes.

[ashersky]

So robz seems like a much more informative lynch, and I think he is a bit more likely to flip scum. However, we know that chances are that neither of them are the SK, which makes them more likely to be town. Robz is probably the most informative lynch we have right now, but right now I don't really have much of a reason to believe that he is scum. I do not think that we should lynch mcmc today unless he does something really scummy.

I suggested than an informational lynch would be an out for you, a way for mafia to lynch town without many repercussions, because if you lynch either me or robz and we flip town you can just say oh well now we know. You did not say you wanted an informational lynch but the above paragraph confused me a bit.

I may have just read this wrong, do you believe lynching either me or robz is a good idea? In this paragraph you mention twice Robz is the most informative lynch we have, but that you don't have a scum read on him. Then you state you don't want to lynch me unless I do something scummy. So it looks to me like you are putting out null reads and saying we could lynch me or robz for informational purposes.

Okay, I need to get a bit caught up, but I wanted to mention, on informational lynches:

They can be a good idea D1, but not at this point.  That someone's flip will be more information than another person's flip can be a factor in lynching, I think, but shouldn't be the sole reasoning.  I don't think liopoil is making that argument, though, in the beginning of his quote, although "most informative lynch we have right now" is not a good statement to be making.  That's a bit scummy.

[ashersky]

Replacements for the deceased come on the morning transport. Luckily other people seem to have done all these jobs before: Li Nalas is taking over for Kira, Michael Eddington coming in for Odo, and as for the vacant chief medical officer spot, Starfleet is a little unsympathetic: "Just use the EMH" is the memo.

Vote Count 3.2

ashersky (3): TheMunch, mcmcsalot, Glooble
Glooble (2): ashersky, yuma
Dsell (1): liopoil
liopoil (1): theorel

Not Voting (3): Robz888, Dsell, Jimmmmm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

I am still somehow the leading lynch candidate, btw.

So I'm fairly convinced Robz is town, as even boldscumrobz doesn't "blow" his tracker result on clearing mcmc if he's a scum tracker.  I just really think he'd use it more wisely, to either clear a teammate in mylo-ish situations, or to frame a townie when it's useful for him.  It just didn't serve Robz's interest to claim the way he did.  It served town's interests.

I've found mcmc various levels of scummy all game, and that hasn't really gone away.  But, honestly, I think that's his meta.  Still, I think he's a good lynch today.

I'm also still good with Glooble, liopoil, and Dsell, based on other analysis.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: liopoil this is where my current scum read is strongest.

[liopoil]

Currently I do not want to lynch mcmc or robz, as both of them are townreads to me, and I think there are people who are more likely to flip scum. Jimmmm started talking about them so I added what I had to contribute. If we were going to lynch one of them I was saying it should be robz because we gather more info from his lynch, but that could change if mcmc did something to seem much scummier than robz.

[yuma]

I've found mcmc various levels of scummy all game, and that hasn't really gone away.  But, honestly, I think that's his meta.  Still, I think he's a good lynch today.

I too continue to have a scummier read on mcmc based off play, posts, voting, etc..., but Robz's analysis is compelling in that it is nearly impossible that mcmc is the SK and somewhat unlikely that he is partner's with Galz as a MU scum, this isn't as unlikely as him being SK, but still unlikely compared to our other lynch options. This makes him not as strong of a lynch candidate. If, however, down the road it is revealed that we don't have a SK--but instead have the other scumteam--I think mcmc would jump up in terms of being a good lynch. However, at this point we don't know if we have a SK or not. And until we know as such, I don't think mcmc is a good lynch, especially compared to better options.

If we do find a SK that is not mcmc I will find him to be even more likely town than others as that will eliminate the possibility of him being SK. Although I do suppose that if we have a SK then there are likely two partners of Galz out there... increasing the possibility that neither Galz nor Galzpartner!mcmc performed the night kill....

morale: mcmc probably isn't a good lynch option until we better understand the scum dynamics in this game.

One quick thought and potential question: If Robz's had been roleblocked would he have received a different result than a result if mcmc really hadn't targeted anyone? Or would have the two scenarios have resulted in the same result? This potentially opens up a scenario in which mcmc could be the SK and could be further analyzed if someone claims to have blocked Robz at some point down the road.

[Robz888]

One quick thought and potential question: If Robz's had been roleblocked would he have received a different result than a result if mcmc really hadn't targeted anyone? Or would have the two scenarios have resulted in the same result? This potentially opens up a scenario in which mcmc could be the SK and could be further analyzed if someone claims to have blocked Robz at some point down the road.

No, I asked Jo about that. My result makes it clearer that Mcmc didn't target anyone, not that I was roleblocked.

[Jimmmmm]

So I'm fairly convinced Robz is town, as even boldscumrobz doesn't "blow" his tracker result on clearing mcmc if he's a scum tracker.  I just really think he'd use it more wisely, to either clear a teammate in mylo-ish situations, or to frame a townie when it's useful for him.  It just didn't serve Robz's interest to claim the way he did.  It served town's interests.

I've found mcmc various levels of scummy all game, and that hasn't really gone away.  But, honestly, I think that's his meta.  Still, I think he's a good lynch today.

So do you think mcmc is a Ninja, or are there two Vanilla Goons on one team?