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[mcmcsalot]

alright whats the deadline on this day, I plan on claiming, it shouldn't hurt town for me to claim though should prove my town. It would still be better if I didnt have to claim, but its not the end of the world.

[Jimmmmm]

7am forum time on Thursday. I believe that's just over 32 hours away.

[mcmcsalot]

oh...um so I got clarification on my role, I do not want to be forced to claim.

[ashersky]

oh...um so I got clarification on my role, I do not want to be forced to claim.

Huh?  Like, you asked something just now or you got a random clarification?

[Jimmmmm]

Well, I re-read lio and nothing really jumped out at me. Slight Town I guess, based more on gut than anything else.

Not really sure what to make of this game right now, just really hoping we manage to hit scum today. I would like to see what comes of this mcmc thing, and would like more clarification from mcmc as to what he means.

[mcmcsalot]

oh...um so I got clarification on my role, I do not want to be forced to claim.

Huh?  Like, you asked something just now or you got a random clarification?

I assumed my role did something it doesn't, now I don't want to have to claim

[Robz888]

I do think, all things being equal, Mcmc is a significantly worse lynch than other options. Perhaps I don't rightly understand the case against him? can someone summarize it? I think the hammer thing is totally a bad case, now I know several people have said it's not the hammer thing, what else is it?

My vast preference is for shraeye, for several compelling reasons, including his ardent championing of Cuzz's mislynch, even in spite of Cuzz's claim. And I think the best evidence to lynch Cuzz came at the very end, when Cuzz poorly explained his Jimm read, and shraeye was already completely sold on Cuzz by then. Also, I maintain that shraeye, Munch, and raerae operated a de facto alliance, rarely questioning each other, never voting for each other, and each critically defending the Cuzz lynch. Since we know raerae is town, I think there's an extra impetus to find scum here.

I would also lynch liopoil, mostly for putting forth the particularly bad mcmc case, and sort of flying under the radar other than that. I've appreciated that his post seems substantial--at least at first glance--but they've been actually pretty rare, and I think he is the closest thing we have to a lurker (other than Dsell and Glooble, both of whom I think are town).

[Robz888]

oh...um so I got clarification on my role, I do not want to be forced to claim.

Huh?  Like, you asked something just now or you got a random clarification?

I assumed my role did something it doesn't, now I don't want to have to claim

Well, I really don't think we should lynch you... but I don't think your exempt from having to make a claim.

[Jimmmmm]

I would also lynch liopoil, mostly for putting forth the particularly bad mcmc case, and sort of flying under the radar other than that. I've appreciated that his post seems substantial--at least at first glance--but they've been actually pretty rare, and I think he is the closest thing we have to a lurker (other than Dsell and Glooble, both of whom I think are town).

I suppose the fact that I didn't really get anything from re-reading him could be an indication of this.

[Robz888]

Okay, I do think the Mcmc lynch is a mistake. I am a 1-shot Tracker. Last night, I tracked mcmcsalot. He took no action. I think this makes him significantly less likely to be scum, given what we know already.

FWIW, I have some (disastrous) experience as a Tracker (in M-XII, where I epic fail at it), but I still think my psychology for picking who to track was pretty much on in that game, so I stuck with it. I don't want to track the obvious people, because the obvious people aren't going to kill anyone (because they expect the tracker to be watching them). This is mafia 101, even in games without a tracker for some reason the less suspicious partner does the kill (Galz always did the kill in M-II; I was more suspicious, even though it didn't matter). So I was not going to track the people who came under heavy suspicion yesterday, which includes shraeye, Jimm, and Eevee basically. I was never going to track Galzria because he's just too obvious a person anyway, and there's always that likelihood he gets nightkilled just for being Galzria--which I bet is what happened here; I doubt a scum faction really thought they were shooting scum in Galz. So I wanted to pick someone who I thought could be scum, but who didn't know that I thought they could be scum. Like, Glooble and Dsell I really didn't think were scum, so I wasn't picking them. Also, just from what I know about my brother, he's like a really gung-ho guy (he posted his phone number in blitz whatever for goodness sake, so people could tell him when the lynch was happening), and it seemed reasonable if he was on a scumfaction he'd be likely to be the one taking the shot, just because he wanted to, in addition to everything else.

Well, he didn't do anything. I've thought about this a lot; this means he's probably not scum, right? If he were scum, and he were on Galzria's team, well, Galz is the rolecop, and it's pretty likely Galz can't take the shot AND rolecop someone, so unless it's a three person team, Mcmc takes the shot there. If Mcmc were SK, he has to take the shot. Of course there's a perfectly plausible scenario where Mcmc is on some other team, and for whatever reason was not the person who took the shot.

But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.

[Jimmmmm]

This is interesting. Unvote. Your reasoning seems sound, and if you're telling the truth, mcmc definitely gets some Town points. As in, almost certainly not SK, almost certainly not in a 2-person team with Galz.

[mcmcsalot]

i can confirm that I took no actions due to my role if that helps

[Robz888]

i can confirm that I took no actions due to my role if that helps

If you're going to keep just bringing up your role you might as well claim.

[ashersky]

unvote based on Robz's new info.

Back to vote: shraeye as our most likely candidate, our most informative flip, and my second highest scum read (after Eevee, who no one seems to want to lynch).

[jotheonah]

A Bajoran Vedek from a fringe faction starts preaching that the deaths are a judgment upon them from the Pah-Wraiths, who demand more human sacrifices to make things right.

Despite Major Kira's protestations, they start building a pyre in the Bajoran temple.

Vote Count 2.6

shraeye (4): Eevee, ashersky, Robz888, theorel {L-3}
mcmcsalot (3): The Munch, liopoil, yuma

Not voting (5): shraeye, Glooble, Dsell, mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[theorel]

Jimmmmm unvoted.

[liopoil]

Unvote until I can think about stuff later today. no time right now.

[Eevee]

i am sorry about being so useless.

Mcmc=strongest town read, the way he went about his role remainds me of myself when faked with a role I don't know how to handle (so basically anything but a VT). I was going to post this before Robz's claim which makes the read even stronger.

Robz is second strongest town read for me. he has made early claims as town earlier (jailkeeper in casino), and I don't think scum would want to tie themselves to a fake claim that early just to gain town cred. Would actually be sort of clever if you has a real strong town read on mcmc, but I find it VERY unlikely.

I cant fault the people suspecting me really. Now that I know the deadline is near, I'll try to keep up a little better.

[Jimmmmm]

Less than 24 hours until deadline. Do we have some sort of soft deadline in place? Given recent developments regarding Robz and mcmc, I think shraeye is by far the best lynch for today. So I will Vote: shraeye. If we're still going I'll have another look at things tomorrow after work (approximately 15 hours from now).

[yuma]

But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.

well I think people again... are jumping ship a little too fast. At least it seems like people are giving mcmc a complete pass based off information that may or may not pertain to it. But in reading through robz's post the above stood out to me the most. Because I for one am not PRETTY SURE mcmc is scum. I felt he was the most likely, but not PRETTY SURE. I think we need to continue to look at mcmc, because I did find much of his behavior scummy and we need to remember that, but like Robz said the math is starting to point in a different direction. So I am going to go back to my second scumread and vote: glooble. It appears that everyone is reverting back to shraeye, who I could see lynching, but not as much as I would prefer glooble. Also, and this is secondary to my scumread on glooble, but I am worried that with such a short deadline people are going to start jumping on shraeye because "he is the only viable lynch possible" and we will end up in a similar situation as we did yesterday with the Cuzz wagon...

Per the usual, I will likely not be on until early evening at the earliest and that is getting awfully close to deadline. 

[yuma]

sorry:

vote: glooble

[shraeye]

has some early theory talk regarding who killed galz/raerae, etc.

Depending on how they go about asking it, I've found discussing theory of nightkills to be slightly scummy.  Especially if they post in a "now WHY would that happen??" way.  It feels like they made a conscious choice trying to confuse town, and then were disappointed when town didn't discuss it.  So they're stirring the pot, so to speak.

This is the post that talked about it the most scummily, to me.

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Side note, why do we think these two people were killed, galz makes sense to me seeing as he's usually a very helpfull townie,(did anyone have suspicions of galz?) but raerae nk confuses me, I thought she was towny but it seems a lot of people felt she was scum, why would scum want to kill her, she's an easy mislynch to force.

Based on that, and my gut, I'm going to
Vote: mcmcsalot

I'll try to get time to do a reread tonight.

[shraeye]

oh, I see my timing is brilliantly terrible.

I hadn't read further than 1618 at the time of that post.

[shraeye]

Read Robz's claim.  Agree with his decision to track unsuspected people.  Unvote

[shraeye]

vote: ashersky

For this:

I will not put my name to a shraeye lynch. It feels too reactive and way too obvious. I really don't think scum shraeye would be so sure of himself as he pushed for a lynch. When you drive a wagon as hard as that, you're taking a huge risk that the heat is going to fall on you if you're wrong, and that's a risk town is much more likely to take than scum. It just doesn't add up for me.

This reasoning is good.  We should push for a separate lynch and see where we go.  Mcmc is the most likely candidate, with I think everyone but Robz supporting or okay with it.

vote: mcmcsalot

Agreeing with Glooble that I'm not being like scumshraeye.

Then immediately reverting to me, because I'm the most likely candidate.

unvote based on Robz's new info.

Back to vote: shraeye as our most likely candidate, our most informative flip, and my second highest scum read (after Eevee, who no one seems to want to lynch).