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[shraeye]

So right now my reads are
scummy: (scummiest to towniest)
mcmcsalot
liopoil
Glooble
yuma
Dsell (slightly)

neutralish: (scummiest to towniest)
Eevee
Jimmm
Munch
theorel

Towny:
Robz
ashersky

[shraeye]

For the top scumreads, I have some rereading to do;  I've noted here and there posts that stuck out to me, but by the end of this week I should have more time to actually go through day1.

[Jimmmmm]

Sorry if you've already mentioned this shraeye, but what made you change your mind about me?

[Robz888]

Oh! So, I can talk about my extra piece of evidence against shraeye now. I hope you guys weren't expecting something super concrete. Anyway, maybe the better way would be for shraeye to address this first.

Shraeye: Why did you continue to post in this game while failing to put an end to Mafia XVIII for like two weeks?

[yuma]

let's start with mcmc:

mcmc is active in the Jimmm/eevee situation early on. He started off thinking eevee was scummy... but then turned Jimmm into his top scumread, (not voting for either)... I pointed this out and still find it to be a contradiction in that mcmc followed Jimmm's case on eevee and read eevee as scum because of it... but then ended up with a scum read on Jimmm because he "pushed the case on eevee too hard" but he still had a scum read on eevee??

Mcmc then votes ashersky. He does this when he decides to go through person by person, the first person is ash, who he votes primarily for ash's push on raerae. He maintains it for a while, while he analyzes other players such as Robz, me and eevee... but eventually he abandons it because it was an ancient read from a long time ago.

In two posts pretty close together he offers that glooble has done nothing that he found scummy, but then expresses that he would be ok with it, but would want to hear more.

Finally, after posts and posts about how he found Jimmm scummy there is finally a vote: largely due to shraeye's case on him. In the same post he expresses a slight scum read on Cuzz... but doesn't say anythign else about him until Cuzz is at L-1 (where he unvotes Jimmmm) and thinks Cuzz should claim, but says that he would be willing to lynch Cuzz. Another weird thing is that he says he has been "tunneling" Jimmmm.... but he had only been voting for him for 2 posts.... hmmm

Mcmc detaches himself from "the cases" made on Cuzz, but instead says that he finds him scummy because of his reaction. Announces intent to hammer, then 2 posts to raerae and then goes to bed...


Day 2:

So I just glossed through most of day 2 and there were posts, but I struggled to find anything to comment on... this is suspicious to me, a change in posting behavior from the previous day. At least I think it is a change in posting behavior. Let me go through them all to see if they lack the substance as much as I think...

- theory talk
- talking with ash about raerae's death
- answering themunch about the intent to hammer
- theory talk with theorel
- calls out Jimmmm
- comment on shraeye/munch/ash, has a town read on theorel
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- explains scummy read on ash
- theory talk
- questioning Jimmmm
- votes ash for his "constant responses"
- would not have been supportive of the shraeye quick wagon
- disagrees with munch's case on him
- explains "constant responses" to me...

So there was more substance there once I went through it fully. I guess my major beef with mcmc are as follows:

1. his contradiction in finding jimmmm's case on eevee scummy but still finding eevee scummy
2. his no read on Glooble, shortly followed by his willingness to lynch glooble
3. his self proclaiming that he was "tunneling" Jimmmm when in fact it was only a vote for two posts...
4. a slight change in posting behavior from the day prior... at least I think it was a slight change. The just seems like less content. I have had this theory before that it is easier to be scum day1, but as the days progress it becomes harder and harder to find things to talk about... see ftl in Robz's giant game for an example--and that was before ftl lost interest--I am talking about day2 and 3, where I called him out on it and he ended up being scum. This is similar to me.
5. his read on ash and his vote on ash. Perhaps part of that is that he hasn't played with ash as much, but... in conversation's about other players he hasn't played as much before mcmc has made a point of "deferring to the elders" about their playstyle... He did so on Glooble, Dsell and someone else... I am kinda curious that he didn't do so in this situation, especially when some of us are offering up opinions on ash.
6. there is very little to no talking about Galzria in his posts... at least nothing stood out. I need to go back and check my analysis of Galz to say what he said about mcmc... (yes, I know mcmc could be scum not aligned with Galz, but I think it is stupid to not try and find galz's partners) and galz expressed a full out town read on mcmc...! If mcmc is scum partners with Galz this would fly in direct contradiction to what I would expect from Galz to do. Hmmmm.

[shraeye]

Sorry if you've already mentioned this shraeye, but what made you change your mind about me?

Cuzz's flip.  I was very wrong about him, and things like that make me reevaluate reads.  Your day1 I haven't gone through very deeply yet, but day2 you have been helpful in facilitating and contributing in what feel like useful conversations to me.  So I'm left feeling somewhat neutral.

[Robz888]

I had a question for you as well, shraeye.

[shraeye]

Shraeye: Why did you continue to post in this game while failing to put an end to Mafia XVIII for like two weeks?

I'm almost at my mafia breaking point right now, I was taking on too many commitments at the start of the semester, and all the mafia games here were feeling like a chore for me to get to.  Instead of reducing activity in all of them uniformly, I chose where to put my focus. 

This game was moving at such a fast pace, that if I took a break and had to catch up on 10+ pages, I wouldn't be working at my best at all...and really would be just creating more future-work for myself.  I really hate trying to play catchup; it's hard.

The MXVIII game was not very interesting to me, as the whole setup had been mostly solved.  I knew that Axxle was SK, and I knew that me/Grujah were town there.  The ONE thing I had to try to discover was "is ashersky a WW". 

I knew that by mentally checking out of that game with so few people in it, I wouldn't hold up discussion, I wouldn't have tons of pages to come back to, I wouldn't miss out on activity.  It was reassuring that I had literally the only decision to make.  I knew I had plenty of time to do that, and that I'd get there eventually.  Then Ozle's game is starting up soon, and I had to make sure to clear my plate before that starts (because I hear they're super fun).  So I was excited to see that it was waiting for MXVIII to finish, as I saw opportunity to make my life much better; by waiting until I was more free to end that game.



IF THIS IS YOUR NEW PIECE OF INFO, and you are seriously going to pursue this, I WILL become quite cross.  Words will be said.  I don't mean to make this a "WIFOM-is he really angry, or does he just think that sounding angry will help" type defense to a "shraeye was playing in here but not in MXVIII argument".  If that's the argument you're about to make, I literally won't have it.

raerae can confirm that I'm upset at what I suspect you're about to do.  I could go out of my bedroom to yell at Munch and he'd hear that I'm upset.  I've told Insomniac via PM when he wanted me to sub for blitz that I'm at my breaking point in mafia.  I've held up the start of Pandemic for at least a week because I've been too busy to focus on it.  I don't know what else to say.  I'm not going to debate my business at you.  I've been effing busy, and I've been choosing to let my business affect the smallest subsets of people possible.

Leave that argument out of any case, and everything will be fine.  If you insist on making that argument anyway, I will be done interacting with you in this game.

[shraeye]

I had a question for you as well, shraeye.

Answered.  My last post is the last I will stomach of that talk.  Seriously.

[Robz888]

I had a question for you as well, shraeye.

Answered.  My last post is the last I will stomach of that talk.  Seriously.

Okay, well I guess it's not worth making you really mad. Dropped, I guess? Hm.

[Robz888]

I'm not even sure we're talking about the same thing, really, but my thing is not even like a definite thing, it was just a line of thinking I wanted to pursue. Well, like I said, not worth making you mad...

[yuma]

Now Glooble:

finds Jimmm scummy and as a result the eevee case not very compelling.... and then votes Jimmm for both the eevee case and the PR claim thing.... votes ashersky, because ash asked why he didn't vote him when glooble called out a defense by ash...

I will note that glooble has a lot of posts, or part of posts that reference his availability or lack thereof... I know scum can become paranoid about how town views their availability in regard to their posting... or it could just be that glooble knows that he is a lurker and is a nice guy and wants to acknowledge that and let us know why...

under a bit of pressure for lurking reveals that he was going to /out of the game... Now as I said before this irked me... well not glooble's response, because I am not one to purposefully question someones IRL obligations and responsibilities... but I was irked that this resonated so quickly with nearly everyone on his wagon. I mentioned before the glooble wagon started that I was interested in reactions and in analyzing reactions... I was particularily interested in glooble's reaction to a wagon on him, but I was more interested in it in the long term... With both the day1 scum/lurker lynches we had in the past the thing that set them up wasn't really their lurking, it was that they both subsequently started to increase the amount of posts after the pressure. I was hoping to see if Glooble would do that, but the immediate let off on pressure didn't really give me a chance. I guess I can analyze it a bit... in that since then glooble has not increased the amounts of posting (sorry for the long tangent there, but I was really hoping that line of thought would pay off and you would all think me a genius and crown me mafia champion...)

similar to mcmc, glooble unvotes ash because it was an ancient read...  Glooble starts the investigation into cuzz for his "redirect to glooble" actually shraeye brings it up, but Glooble agrees with and a lot of the rest of the case, and eventually votes for Cuzz... defends some of the points from shraeye's case against theorel's analysis...

Again the post I mentioned before where glooble has a strong town read on Galz and shraeye if Cuzz flips scum, but reverse that if Cuzz flips town... (this still is really scummy to me, especially in light of Galz's alignment

and then is absent for the rest of day 1.

Day 2;

still has a townread on shraeye... But Cuzz flipped town!!! in contradiction to that posted above and wanted to analyze the fast wagon on shraeye... gives some merit to munch's case on ash... is undecided/leaning no in answer to scum between munch/shraeye

well my beef with glooble is as such:

1. lurking, but didn't change lurking habits after receiving pressure, but pressure wasnt' there very long
2. has a lot of availability posts, but like I said... could be paranoid scum or just a nice guy... has glooble done this in the past, tell us his availability a lot, I haven't played much with him.
3. was on the Cuzz wagon, and heavily agreed with shraeye and defended some of shraeye's points (this isn't necessarily scummy, but I disagreed with the case and the defenses)
4. his post about Galz/shraeye in light of the cuzz flip and the fact that he still has a town read on shraeye despite that.

And I can't remember again what Galz had to say about him... Galz said he would be willing to lynch him, but didn't really have a scum read.

So at this point I have a scummier read on mcmc than on Glooble. All of my thoughts on Glooble seem to have a this was scummy, but.... attached onto it.

[yuma]

I will vote: mcmc

[Jimmmmm]

shraeye is reading marginally Townier than he has (still a scum-read overall though). So while I still have my eye on shraeye, let's Vote: mcmc, my other scum-read, to see what comes of that.

[shraeye]

I'm not even sure we're talking about the same thing, really, but my thing is not even like a definite thing, it was just a line of thinking I wanted to pursue. Well, like I said, not worth making you mad...

Perhaps you have more to say.  I felt the build-up of a "because shraeye was active here, but not active there where he was a Mason, I find him scummy."  If you're going to say something else, then I apologize for pre-"going off the rails." 

I didn't mean to stifle a good point if you have one.  If you do, please say it.  I am eager to hear good points.

[jotheonah]

With Odo and Quark both out of the picture, the petty crime rate in the promenade stays remarkably the same.



Vote Count 2.5

ashersky (1): mcmcsalot
shraeye (4): Eevee, ashersky, Robz888, theorel {L-3}
mcmcsalot (4): The Munch, liopoil, Jimmmmm, yuma {L-3}

Not voting (3): shraeye, Glooble, Dsell

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[mcmcsalot]

Quote from Yuma sorry phone posting and messed up the quote.

1. his contradiction in finding jimmmm's case on eevee scummy but still finding eevee scummy
2. his no read on Glooble, shortly followed by his willingness to lynch glooble
3. his self proclaiming that he was "tunneling" Jimmmm when in fact it was only a vote for two posts...
4. a slight change in posting behavior from the day prior... at least I think it was a slight change. The just seems like less content. I have had this theory before that it is easier to be scum day1, but as the days progress it becomes harder and harder to find things to talk about... see ftl in Robz's giant game for an example--and that was before ftl lost interest--I am talking about day2 and 3, where I called him out on it and he ended up being scum. This is similar to me.
5. his read on ash and his vote on ash. Perhaps part of that is that he hasn't played with ash as much, but... in conversation's about other players he hasn't played as much before mcmc has made a point of "deferring to the elders" about their playstyle... He did so on Glooble, Dsell and someone else... I am kinda curious that he didn't do so in this situation, especially when some of us are offering up opinions on ash.
6. there is very little to no talking about Galzria in his posts... at least nothing stood out. I need to go back and check my analysis of Galz to say what he said about mcmc... (yes, I know mcmc could be scum not aligned with Galz, but I think it is stupid to not try and find galz's partners) and galz expressed a full out town read on mcmc...! If mcmc is scum partners with Galz this would fly in direct contradiction to what I would expect from Galz to do. Hmmmm.
[/quote]

1. I have explained this ad nauseum, I found the way Jimm pushed the case on eevee and made it out to be bigger than it was scummy. This should answer 3. As well seeing as this was the beginning of the game and I continued to find Jimm scummy for most of D1, up to the point I mention I felt I was tunneling him. I was unaware tunneling meant voting for a long time...
2. I don't see how this is a problem at the time I simply had a null read, I guess a crappy way of explaining, I didn't find him scummy but I didn't find him town either, I had no case to make on him but would have been open to hearing one.
4. I have posted less content, along with almost every other player, not only is this game 3 times as large as the two blitz games I played in, this is the first D2 I have ever played as town. RMM (D2 has just started)
5.  unvote I agree I voted him because he read scummy to me, many people disagreed and I will unvote for that. Though I am wary of listening to my elders, it along with being to rash lost me ZMX
6. What would you like me to say about him, I agree with much of what has been said about him, I agree with what has been said.

[mcmcsalot]

Mcmc detaches himself from "the cases" made on Cuzz, but instead says that he finds him scummy because of his reaction. Announces intent to hammer, then 2 posts to raerae and then goes to bed...

This is very frustrating, I did not announce intent post twice and go to bed. I announced intent, came back a few hours later expecting to find at most one page of new things, an answer to the question that had still been out there and I would hammer. I instead came back to 6 pages and a mini wagon on a second player, i believe cuzz was not even a L-1 anymore(will check this when im not on movile)So I decided wow maybe lynching cuzz isn't the right idea anymore, I couldn't put my vote down untill I read the 6 new pages which I was not planning on nor wanted to do 7 hours before waking up for class, so I went to bed. Again expecting to wake up to a few more posts, I would read everything and post my thoughts which would have included a vote for cuzz. Instead I once agai woke up to a surprise, thread was locked and cuzz had been hammered.
In summary please stop saying I posted and went to bed as though I didn't care about the cuzz lynch, the game exploded in the few hours I was gone, this is not a blitz game and we were not at deadline.

[Robz888]

Mcmc detaches himself from "the cases" made on Cuzz, but instead says that he finds him scummy because of his reaction. Announces intent to hammer, then 2 posts to raerae and then goes to bed...

This is very frustrating, I did not announce intent post twice and go to bed. I announced intent, came back a few hours later expecting to find at most one page of new things, an answer to the question that had still been out there and I would hammer. I instead came back to 6 pages and a mini wagon on a second player, i believe cuzz was not even a L-1 anymore(will check this when im not on movile)So I decided wow maybe lynching cuzz isn't the right idea anymore, I couldn't put my vote down untill I read the 6 new pages which I was not planning on nor wanted to do 7 hours before waking up for class, so I went to bed. Again expecting to wake up to a few more posts, I would read everything and post my thoughts which would have included a vote for cuzz. Instead I once agai woke up to a surprise, thread was locked and cuzz had been hammered.
In summary please stop saying I posted and went to bed as though I didn't care about the cuzz lynch, the game exploded in the few hours I was gone, this is not a blitz game and we were not at deadline.

Does anyone dispute that this is a perfectly satisfactory answer? At least for Mcmc's hammer not coming... I mean, he's exactly right here the timeframe of it, because I was very active that day and I was around when he said he would hammer and I was still around late at night when he reappeared in the middle of shraeye's mini-wagon. He couldn't even hammer then, since Cuzz wasn't L-1. It was really late at night, I don't think he had a responsibility to stay on and wait it out or even contribute, we weren't at deadline.

I understand that there is more to the case on mcmc than this, but I know liopoil at least cited this as the major reason for voting mcmc, so big FOS: liopoil.

[Robz888]

I'll take the deafening silence as an admittance that I am completely right.

[Dsell]

I can't believe how quickly this deadline is coming up. I see some merit on each of the wagons though I really wish others were interested in lynching Munch. I will review and get in some more content soon...ish.

[TheMunch]

I'll take the deafening silence as an admittance that I am completely right.

I would take it as me not reading the thread.  I will admit that I am biased because I've read what I've read and I have a narrative in my mind of how mcmc saw things going down so I'm more liable to be swayed by confirmation bias.  But that being said, responses like mcmc's (which are perfectly rational explanations for why things went down the way he went down) fit nicely into my narrative of Cuzz.  Although it didn't happen, if Cuzz flipped scum, I would have expected mcmc to make some excuse like "But I was going to hammer!  I even said I would, I just had to wait."  Its an easy position for scum to put themselves into and I dont think mcmc's response gives any points towards him being town.

He can state that he is as frustrated as he likes about my case.  He did announce intent, then post twice, then went to bed.  If his going-to-sleep post had instead said "hey guys, just a reminder, I am still willing to hammer but i still really want Cuzz's questions to get answered before he gets lynched; make sure that happens before we lynch Cuzz.  I'm going to bed."  That would come off better to me than what he did post which was "I missed a bunch, haven't read but Cuzz isn't dead.  I'm going to bed."  This points much stronger to the scenario where he wanted to say he was going to hammer but never actually have to be the one to do it.

[Robz888]

I'll take the deafening silence as an admittance that I am completely right.

He can state that he is as frustrated as he likes about my case.  He did announce intent, then post twice, then went to bed.  If his going-to-sleep post had instead said "hey guys, just a reminder, I am still willing to hammer but i still really want Cuzz's questions to get answered before he gets lynched; make sure that happens before we lynch Cuzz.  I'm going to bed."  That would come off better to me than what he did post which was "I missed a bunch, haven't read but Cuzz isn't dead.  I'm going to bed."  This points much stronger to the scenario where he wanted to say he was going to hammer but never actually have to be the one to do it.

Just the opposite. That overly calculated response would have been much scummier. What he did was perfectly genuine. "Oh crap, people are not ready for the hammer! I'm off to bed."

[Robz888]

I can't believe how quickly this deadline is coming up. I see some merit on each of the wagons though I really wish others were interested in lynching Munch. I will review and get in some more content soon...ish.

I'm not UN-interested in lynching Munch. Just more interested in shraeye.

[Glooble]

I will note that glooble has a lot of posts, or part of posts that reference his availability or lack thereof... I know scum can become paranoid about how town views their availability in regard to their posting... or it could just be that glooble knows that he is a lurker and is a nice guy and wants to acknowledge that and let us know why...

Basically. In previous games I've found if I don't keep people apprised of my availability lots of people will be like "where's Glooble? I haven't seen him in like two days." So I try to mention if I've going to be gone for more than 12 hours just so the information is out there.

Note that I did not say "If Cuzz flips town, shraeye is scum." I said if Cuzz flipped town, shreaye would look scummier to me. And he does. But that just means he's gone from someone I was reasonably certain was town to someone I don't have much of a read on.