Okay, I do think the Mcmc lynch is a mistake. I am a 1-shot Tracker. Last night, I tracked mcmcsalot. He took no action. I think this makes him significantly less likely to be scum, given what we know already.
FWIW, I have some (disastrous) experience as a Tracker (in M-XII, where I epic fail at it), but I still think my psychology for picking who to track was pretty much on in that game, so I stuck with it. I don't want to track the obvious people, because the obvious people aren't going to kill anyone (because they expect the tracker to be watching them). This is mafia 101, even in games without a tracker for some reason the less suspicious partner does the kill (Galz always did the kill in M-II; I was more suspicious, even though it didn't matter). So I was not going to track the people who came under heavy suspicion yesterday, which includes shraeye, Jimm, and Eevee basically. I was never going to track Galzria because he's just too obvious a person anyway, and there's always that likelihood he gets nightkilled just for being Galzria--which I bet is what happened here; I doubt a scum faction really thought they were shooting scum in Galz. So I wanted to pick someone who I thought could be scum, but who didn't know that I thought they could be scum. Like, Glooble and Dsell I really didn't think were scum, so I wasn't picking them. Also, just from what I know about my brother, he's like a really gung-ho guy (he posted his phone number in blitz whatever for goodness sake, so people could tell him when the lynch was happening), and it seemed reasonable if he was on a scumfaction he'd be likely to be the one taking the shot, just because he wanted to, in addition to everything else.
Well, he didn't do anything. I've thought about this a lot; this means he's probably not scum, right? If he were scum, and he were on Galzria's team, well, Galz is the rolecop, and it's pretty likely Galz can't take the shot AND rolecop someone, so unless it's a three person team, Mcmc takes the shot there. If Mcmc were SK, he has to take the shot. Of course there's a perfectly plausible scenario where Mcmc is on some other team, and for whatever reason was not the person who took the shot.
But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.