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[O]

I think all other targets than faust are just shots in the dark that will likely make us lose. For faust there is at least decent indication/evidence.

Faust's actions are scummier than Galzria's and Galzria's actions are scummier than Faust's.

If me and Teproc get no support for the Galzria lynch though (as seems like it might be the case...) Faust was very much second on my list.

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

Playing it safe? I've been one of the few people bothering to push after and question literally everything in our situation.

You've equivocated on pretty much every statement of opinion possible.

Vote: Galzria

Weird. Almost like I have no concrete information.

Well I'm talking about opinions, right. And it's also highly plausible actions for someone whose sole primary objective is to not appear scummy themselves.

[Galzria]

Well. This is how this ends:

I'm town. There's 7 town, 3 scum. It takes 6 to lynch. If O and Teproc are town then their commitment to lynching me has just cost town the game. Even if I could convince all 4 other town to vote for DatSwan, or RR, or e, or Space, or whoever - it's not enough to lynch. We only number 5 without town!O and town!Teproc, and it takes 6 to lynch.

So, the only chance town has is if Tep and O are in fact scum. That still leaves the possibility that we can rally to win.

vote: Teproc as the only viable option.

If you do lynch me, the only saving hope we have is that I'm poisoned right now. I've confirmed with Robz that if we fail to lynch scum, or the poisoned player, and there are in fact no ways to stop scum tonight then he will, indeed, call the game immediately.

In the event that the game is still going on: Scum are likely e (Roleblocker/Joat), Swan (Poisoneer), Space (Watcher).

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

[O]

Well. This is how this ends:

I'm town. There's 7 town, 3 scum. It takes 6 to lynch. If O and Teproc are town then their commitment to lynching me has just cost town the game. Even if I could convince all 4 other town to vote for DatSwan, or RR, or e, or Space, or whoever - it's not enough to lynch. We only number 5 without town!O and town!Teproc, and it takes 6 to lynch.

So, the only chance town has is if Tep and O are in fact scum. That still leaves the possibility that we can rally to win.

vote: Teproc as the only viable option.

If you do lynch me, the only saving hope we have is that I'm poisoned right now. I've confirmed with Robz that if we fail to lynch scum, or the poisoned player, and there are in fact no ways to stop scum tonight then he will, indeed, call the game immediately.

In the event that the game is still going on: Scum are likely e (Roleblocker/Joat), Swan (Poisoneer), Space (Watcher).

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

This is literally all false.
1) Despite being in LYLO putting 2 votes on you does not give scum the chance to hammer you.
2) I literally said in the post above that if people are not willing to vote for you over Faust, Faust is my second choice.


I think this response is incredibly scummy though.

[Galzria]

Well. This is how this ends:

I'm town. There's 7 town, 3 scum. It takes 6 to lynch. If O and Teproc are town then their commitment to lynching me has just cost town the game. Even if I could convince all 4 other town to vote for DatSwan, or RR, or e, or Space, or whoever - it's not enough to lynch. We only number 5 without town!O and town!Teproc, and it takes 6 to lynch.

So, the only chance town has is if Tep and O are in fact scum. That still leaves the possibility that we can rally to win.

vote: Teproc as the only viable option.

If you do lynch me, the only saving hope we have is that I'm poisoned right now. I've confirmed with Robz that if we fail to lynch scum, or the poisoned player, and there are in fact no ways to stop scum tonight then he will, indeed, call the game immediately.

In the event that the game is still going on: Scum are likely e (Roleblocker/Joat), Swan (Poisoneer), Space (Watcher).

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

This is literally all false.
1) Despite being in LYLO putting 2 votes on you does not give scum the chance to hammer you.
2) I literally said in the post above that if people are not willing to vote for you over Faust, Faust is my second choice.


I think this response is incredibly scummy though.

1) Scum doesn't need to hammer me. Where did I say anything about that? Do you understand what LyLo means? It means if we don't lynch scum, we lose. If you two are town, and you're voting me, it's literally 100% impossible to lynch scum - and thus, we lose. With the caveat being that I could be poisoned, which I brought up.

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

[O]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

[O]

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

You're a good enough player to 1. Read/make PPE's and 2. Realize it wasn't a definitive death sentence without me clarifying that.


What if all the other 4 town players voted for scum!Faust in your mind? Are you claiming you REALLY thought me and Teproc would force shove a nolynch through and lose the game?

[Galzria]

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

You're a good enough player to 1. Read/make PPE's and 2. Realize it wasn't a definitive death sentence without me clarifying that.


What if all the other 4 town players voted for scum!Faust in your mind? Are you claiming you REALLY thought me and Teproc would force shove a nolynch through and lose the game?

I don't think Faust is scum.

[Galzria]

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

You're a good enough player to 1. Read/make PPE's and 2. Realize it wasn't a definitive death sentence without me clarifying that.


What if all the other 4 town players voted for scum!Faust in your mind? Are you claiming you REALLY thought me and Teproc would force shove a nolynch through and lose the game?

I don't think Faust is scum.

Regarding the PPE's, I read them less than 10% of the time. I almost always phone post and they're a hassle.

[O]

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

You're a good enough player to 1. Read/make PPE's and 2. Realize it wasn't a definitive death sentence without me clarifying that.


What if all the other 4 town players voted for scum!Faust in your mind? Are you claiming you REALLY thought me and Teproc would force shove a nolynch through and lose the game?

I don't think Faust is scum.

Faust can be replaced with any non-Galzria,non-Mason name there.

[Galzria]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

I absolutely do not think you'll be lynched. But with you voting me there's no other options. Scum wins.

[O]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

I absolutely do not think you'll be lynched. But with you voting me there's no other options. Scum wins.

I don't think town!Galz puts in this amount of fatalism to what is by no means a guaranteed loss.

[Galzria]

2) Was my post a response to your previous post? The one you posted 2 minutes before mine that I didn't quote?

Of course you do.

You're a good enough player to 1. Read/make PPE's and 2. Realize it wasn't a definitive death sentence without me clarifying that.


What if all the other 4 town players voted for scum!Faust in your mind? Are you claiming you REALLY thought me and Teproc would force shove a nolynch through and lose the game?

I don't think Faust is scum.

Faust can be replaced with any non-Galzria,non-Mason name there.

And I've made my lynch choices clear: Swan, e, and Space. I've put forth my best thoughts regarding each (except Space, who I just think took scum Watcher like last game). If the other town want to get on board with them, great. I'll be happy to switch. Still won't matter with you two voting me.

[Galzria]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

I absolutely do not think you'll be lynched. But with you voting me there's no other options. Scum wins.

I don't think town!Galz puts in this amount of fatalism to what is by no means a guaranteed loss.

Why are you trying to convince people we're not in LyLo? If you two are town, as you claim, and you vote any other townie (for which I only know that I am), town loses. End of story.

[Galzria]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

I absolutely do not think you'll be lynched. But with you voting me there's no other options. Scum wins.

I don't think town!Galz puts in this amount of fatalism to what is by no means a guaranteed loss.

Why are you trying to convince people we're not in LyLo? If you two are town, as you claim, and you vote any other townie (for which I only know that I am), town loses. End of story.

And if you try to argue that you're not saying that we're not in LyLo, then voting me (unless I'm poisoned) is in fact "a  guaranteed loss."

[Swowl]

Note that I DON'T think Teproc and O are scum. Simply that as town they've locked us into a probable loss by voting for me - and prevented us from actually lynching scum today.

In fact, this line right here is why Galzria should be lynched. If we're not scum in his mind, Town!Galzria would still be pushing for the Faust lynch since it's his only wincon by his guess right now. It wouldn't matter if Teproc is the easier lynch to push through, because the claimed difference in %chance of scum in Galzria's mind would still make Faust the better choice to push.

 Scum!Galzria is thinking that with me and Teproc voting for him, we're the likelier lynch to push through than Faust. And for Scum!Galzria, a Teproc lynch is every bit as good as a Faust lynch.

I absolutely do not think you'll be lynched. But with you voting me there's no other options. Scum wins.

I don't think town!Galz puts in this amount of fatalism to what is by no means a guaranteed loss.

Why are you trying to convince people we're not in LyLo? If you two are town, as you claim, and you vote any other townie (for which I only know that I am), town loses. End of story.

And if you try to argue that you're not saying that we're not in LyLo, then voting me (unless I'm poisoned) is in fact "a  guaranteed loss."

This brings up a good note.

TOWN!!! - unless you are absolutely sure you want the day to end, be careful with your votes. If what Galz says is true about the game snap ending, then if we put 3 town votes on a town player, they can just team hammer and end it.

[Galzria]

Here's where I'm at:

I know I'm town. I don't know about you two, or about anybody else. However I DO know that IF you're town and voting me then town has effectively lost. Therefore if I'm to believe town has any hope of winning, then I must believe that you're scum. That's probably wrong. You're probably town, and you're simply locking town into a loss. You can't know that, of course. So while I'm personally salty about it, it is what it is.

I've made my cases for my picks for scum. I think the team is:

DatSwan: Bid 4, Draft #1 - Poisoner. Taken based off his bid last time, Space claimed to have expected adjustments from the first draft. That would indicate a movement off bid #4.

Space: Bid 16, Draft #3 - Watcher. They would take it as town, and took it as scum last roll based on this meta. No reason to change it up. Got the opportunity and took it again.

Iguana: Bid 23, Draft #10 - VT. Could have bid anything, but probably went Jailkeeper, losing to LaLight. The claim for Swan going Barracks and failing here works because:

e: Bid 73, Draft #9 - Barracks, JoaT/RB. He knew e took it ahead of him. This claim has good middle ground coverage and tells scum where the separation between unique bids and doubles lTH. On the off chance his teammates got bounced above, his position would improve.

I would like to lynch Swan. I think he's the poisoner. But unless you two are willing to support me in this (or Space or e) it doesn't matter.

[Galzria]

unvote. You're not scum. My voting you doesn't actually help anyone other than me vent frustration. Instead, vote: Swan. I'll live, die or lose by my conviction.

Yes, O, I've taken every which way to Sunday today on my opinions. Look at 100 and tell me I do that as scum. I'm far more measured and in control as scum. I know what I want and I pursue it with purpose. As town I try to reason and rationalize everything. I try to understand. The best way I'm able to do that is to try and argue every side of every issue to find what makes sense to me.

[Swowl]

Here's where I'm at:

I know I'm town. I don't know about you two, or about anybody else. However I DO know that IF you're town and voting me then town has effectively lost. Therefore if I'm to believe town has any hope of winning, then I must believe that you're scum. That's probably wrong. You're probably town, and you're simply locking town into a loss. You can't know that, of course. So while I'm personally salty about it, it is what it is.

I've made my cases for my picks for scum. I think the team is:

DatSwan: Bid 4, Draft #1 - Poisoner. Taken based off his bid last time, Space claimed to have expected adjustments from the first draft. That would indicate a movement off bid #4.

Space: Bid 16, Draft #3 - Watcher. They would take it as town, and took it as scum last roll based on this meta. No reason to change it up. Got the opportunity and took it again.

Iguana: Bid 23, Draft #10 - VT. Could have bid anything, but probably went Jailkeeper, losing to LaLight. The claim for Swan going Barracks and failing here works because:

e: Bid 73, Draft #9 - Barracks, JoaT/RB. He knew e took it ahead of him. This claim has good middle ground coverage and tells scum where the separation between unique bids and doubles lTH. On the off chance his teammates got bounced above, his position would improve.

I would like to lynch Swan. I think he's the poisoner. But unless you two are willing to support me in this (or Space or e) it doesn't matter.

So you think that I would of moved off of a bid of 4... but that I also bid 4?

And also again I have to bring this up. With this situation where there is a skum team plan switch a roo thing.... If I am the poisoner... Why would I pick something suspicious like VT? Why wouldn't someone in that situation pick from a list of roles that gives them more credibility?

[Qvist]

I would like to really hear from the lurkers. I have the feeling the same people talk here. Eevee posted at least that he will re-read. RR hasn't posted since he claimed bids. Space, IIRC, hasn't posted in quite a while either. What are your thoughts? I have the feeling this might be town vs. town here and scum is leaning back and laughing.

[Galzria]

Here's where I'm at:

I know I'm town. I don't know about you two, or about anybody else. However I DO know that IF you're town and voting me then town has effectively lost. Therefore if I'm to believe town has any hope of winning, then I must believe that you're scum. That's probably wrong. You're probably town, and you're simply locking town into a loss. You can't know that, of course. So while I'm personally salty about it, it is what it is.

I've made my cases for my picks for scum. I think the team is:

DatSwan: Bid 4, Draft #1 - Poisoner. Taken based off his bid last time, Space claimed to have expected adjustments from the first draft. That would indicate a movement off bid #4.

Space: Bid 16, Draft #3 - Watcher. They would take it as town, and took it as scum last roll based on this meta. No reason to change it up. Got the opportunity and took it again.

Iguana: Bid 23, Draft #10 - VT. Could have bid anything, but probably went Jailkeeper, losing to LaLight. The claim for Swan going Barracks and failing here works because:

e: Bid 73, Draft #9 - Barracks, JoaT/RB. He knew e took it ahead of him. This claim has good middle ground coverage and tells scum where the separation between unique bids and doubles lTH. On the off chance his teammates got bounced above, his position would improve.

I would like to lynch Swan. I think he's the poisoner. But unless you two are willing to support me in this (or Space or e) it doesn't matter.

So you think that I would of moved off of a bid of 4... but that I also bid 4?

And also again I have to bring this up. With this situation where there is a skum team plan switch a roo thing.... If I am the poisoner... Why would I pick something suspicious like VT? Why wouldn't someone in that situation pick from a list of roles that gives them more credibility?

No, scum wouldn't surrender 4 to a potential town that stays on. But the majority of town that bid it before would exodus away to greener pastures - which is evidenced they did.

The problem with both your defenses is: "Scum wouldn't have stayed on 4, because 4 failed last time." - Except that's exactly what they did (or 8, but I'm inclined to believe 4).

And

"Scum would come up with a convoluted fakeclaim - except apparently they didn't. Do you think O/Tep are scum? Eevee? Qvist? Space? e? You've made no cases on anyone, but your defense is essentially that the PR's must be scum. And two probably are. But we fakeclaiming is dangerous, and admitting to being a VT makes you 1-in-4 where a mislynch means scum wins outright. Not a bad proposition.

[Galzria]

The biggest drawback to my beliefs is that it would put 3 scum in the Candidates thread. I'm not maths oriented enough to tell you the exact chances of that - but I would assume it's relatively small. That said, random is random and has no bias.

For the record, these were the (stated, not confirmed) votes cast by Candidates N1:

Iguana voted Swan
Teproc voted Swan
Eevee voted Swan
Swan voted Swan (we were supposed to not vote for oneself)
Galzria voted Teproc
e voted Teproc

Swan investigated me at night.

[Swowl]

1) Never said skum wouldn't stay on 4. Either getting me mixed up with someone else or mis understanding something, IDK which.

2) I am not saying that all PRs must be the skum. I am saying that specifically, in this exact situation I was 3rd from the bottom to bid. If I am skum, then I must assume that Teproc and O are telling the truth, or they are my skum buddies, either way 0 is 1/3 of the people behind me obviously anything I say he will not contradict in that scenario right?
Then there is Qivst, who IMO is clearly the role he has claimed to be.
Then there is E! Who either is skum in this situation or not. Either way, doesn't matter because IF I am skum, and E! is skum then O isn't skum, or if I am skum and O is skum (then since Teproc is skum), E! isn't skum.

All of that is to point out that if Skum!Swan is the poisoner in a situation where only one person behind me could out me if I lied about my claim... with all of the infinite amounts of information I have... Assuming VT looks more suspicious than claiming a PR at that point does (which obv it does).... Why the hell would I in that Skum!Swan scenario CHOOSE to put myself in the VT pile? I wouldn't... I never would, that is absurd.

That is horribly formatted, sorry... but hopefully the point gets across... fake claiming is dangerous in that situation... unless you know all of the damn information. As Town!Swan, I almost could puzzle out the chart just based on what I had to work with. Add in knowledge of 3 other Skum Players, and the person in that spot could make up whatever they freeking wanted!

I don't want to ramp the vote against you right now. And honestly I don't know where your read is coming from. I would invite you to go back and read me without the pregame logic, just because - same point as you made - unless I am poisoned, if I die, then we lose.

Last Point - I have not made any accusations, because I do not have any to make really. I think you are town. At this point I believe the Mason claims. I think Qivst is town. I am on the fence about Space, but leaning town. Faust seems skummy to me for the flaily-ness and the weird not wanting to vote. I think there must be a skum between RR and E!, if we somehow get it right today I think the flip will help guess who?

Did I miss someone?

At this point I need to re read and I would like to get in put from other non-vocal players. I think I answered all your questions though, lmk if not and I will get back.

[Swowl]

The biggest drawback to my beliefs is that it would put 3 scum in the Candidates thread. I'm not maths oriented enough to tell you the exact chances of that - but I would assume it's relatively small. That said, random is random and has no bias.

For the record, these were the (stated, not confirmed) votes cast by Candidates N1:

Iguana voted Swan
Teproc voted Swan
Eevee voted Swan
Swan voted Swan (we were supposed to not vote for oneself)
Galzria voted Teproc
e voted Teproc

Swan investigated me at night.

2 things:
1) you are aware of my reasoning, which I followed through with for voting for myself. that is why I checked you, to confirm you as non-SM and then said you should have the vote since we know you are not SM.
2) Same logic as the whole claiming thing. Why would I admit to voting for myself if I were skum?

[Swowl]

going home now. will re read stuff and get back tonight/tomorrow.

[Galzria]

For reference, pure vote history on the three. Will look at interactions (or lack thereof as I noticed pulling the below) in a bit.

Swan vote history:
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Gkrieg
- Unvote
- Roadrunner
- IDPTG
- LL

2.7 vote history:
- LL
- Gkrieg
- IDPTG
- iguana
- faust

Space vote history:
- Gkrieg
- LL
- LL
- Iguana