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[O]

to be fair, if you guys were scum and knew mason was a safe claim, it's pretty great for you because you'd surely not expect to get lynched. but with at least a tracker and possibly also a watcher in the game, could scum have been sure enough that they weren't seen somewhere to go for this and risk their excellent position?

I don't really see why me or Teproc would expect to get lynched even if we didn't claim mason.

[Teproc]

Re: faust's concers.

You still have not demonstrated why the poisoner thing is more likely to come from scum. You keep saying it as if it were some obvious truth, but it simply is not. The result of poisoner claiming is that we got a free scum lynch.

We did consider breadcrumbing in various ways, but ended up figuring that Masons was a strong claim that we didn't really need it. We also considerered the possibility of my untimely death, and O said he was fine with claiming immediately and taking the 1v1. We did not foresee being at lylo so early, obviously. I will note that O has a couple "this is a bad vote" comments on people voting for me that kinda qualify as breadcrumbs.

Eevee's reasoning for his Tracker choices are good. I don't agree with e that a scum!Eevee would want to claim to have tracked iguana N1 though. It doesn't stop us from lynching the claimed Poisoner when someone dies of Poison. Maybe we lynch the Tracker checking him instead, but more importantly they now both look like liars, and if we decide to lynch Eevee first it's horrible for scum.

[Eevee]

to be fair, if you guys were scum and knew mason was a safe claim, it's pretty great for you because you'd surely not expect to get lynched. but with at least a tracker and possibly also a watcher in the game, could scum have been sure enough that they weren't seen somewhere to go for this and risk their excellent position?

I don't really see why me or Teproc would expect to get lynched even if we didn't claim mason.

Someone's got to. And in the scenario of you two being scum, you'd have to lie in your claims.

[2.71828.....]

Eevee's reasoning for his Tracker choices are good. I don't agree with e that a scum!Eevee would want to claim to have tracked iguana N1 though. It doesn't stop us from lynching the claimed Poisoner when someone dies of Poison. Maybe we lynch the Tracker checking him instead, but more importantly they now both look like liars, and if we decide to lynch Eevee first it's horrible for scum.

I wasn't trying to say scum!tracker!eevee tracks iguana, but that (the way things worked out) town!eevee's decision to not track iguana was very good

[Swowl]

I guess there is no use in talking to e. What are the thoughts of the rest of you? We've heard plenty from e.

My thoughts are pretty open right now. Question everyone and everything.

I want quite badly to believe O and Teproc are scum. There are a number of things that put them in that column. There's also a number of things that make them likely town. First and foremost: They claimed unprovoked today prior to a Tracker and Watcher claim. They can't all 4 be scum, so that's incredibly dangerous if scum.

I could see an Eevee/Space/Qvist team. But then we have a lost Mafia Kill N2.

You're more combative than I'm used to. Don't know what to make of a Faust that goes against the grain. Half of me wants you to be town. The other half can't stop going "Damn, that shit's scummy".

RR and DatSwan and e... I don't know. Probably scum there... But I wouldn't know where to begin to pick.

What is the Nash Equilibrium of risking 2 scum when you're at LYLO with a 7-3 split?

What is the % modifier on that for the choice to either do it with trackers/watchers out, or for neither of us to have taken an action thus far?

Yea it's a play that can be made and should be sometimes by some theoretical model that I'm definitely not going to bother figuring out. Like 5-10% of the time. This is not one of those times.

Just to be fair - Nash only applies when all parties involved are 100% aware of each parties optimum win strategy. As town - we do not actually know the optimum win strategy of skum. We can only apply Nash on our side hoping that outliers stand out.
Just an example - but if skum had enough info to pull off a mason fake claim, getting all of us to claim and cough up their info while skum acts last... that would kind of be an optimal win condition for skum.

[Eevee]

I don't think it's unbelievable O and Teproc wouldn't breadcrumbs more.

[Swowl]

Re: faust's concers.

You still have not demonstrated why the poisoner thing is more likely to come from scum. You keep saying it as if it were some obvious truth, but it simply is not. The result of poisoner claiming is that we got a free scum lynch.

We did consider breadcrumbing in various ways, but ended up figuring that Masons was a strong claim that we didn't really need it. We also considerered the possibility of my untimely death, and O said he was fine with claiming immediately and taking the 1v1. We did not foresee being at lylo so early, obviously. I will note that O has a couple "this is a bad vote" comments on people voting for me that kinda qualify as breadcrumbs.

Eevee's reasoning for his Tracker choices are good. I don't agree with e that a scum!Eevee would want to claim to have tracked iguana N1 though. It doesn't stop us from lynching the claimed Poisoner when someone dies of Poison. Maybe we lynch the Tracker checking him instead, but more importantly they now both look like liars, and if we decide to lynch Eevee first it's horrible for scum.

Also.... pretty sure breadcrumming is very specifically stated as not allowed in the rules.as vets I would hope neither of you actually considered it...

[Teproc]

Breadcrumbing through cryptography is not allowed, but there are other ways that are well within the rules. The problem is that they can be somewhat obvious and scum can get them too.

[Eevee]

Breascrumbing is fine, it's just actual cryptography that's forbidden. It's a bit of an arbitrary cutoff, but we've never had any issues that I can recall yet.

[Teproc]

For example, I considered voting for literally everyone except O during the course of da

[Teproc]

...

of day 1, but decided against it because it woud just lead to unnatural votes and get me suspicion. O calling votes on me "bad votes" with no other explanation kind of qualifies as breadcruming too for example.

[O]

I guess there is no use in talking to e. What are the thoughts of the rest of you? We've heard plenty from e.

My thoughts are pretty open right now. Question everyone and everything.

I want quite badly to believe O and Teproc are scum. There are a number of things that put them in that column. There's also a number of things that make them likely town. First and foremost: They claimed unprovoked today prior to a Tracker and Watcher claim. They can't all 4 be scum, so that's incredibly dangerous if scum.

I could see an Eevee/Space/Qvist team. But then we have a lost Mafia Kill N2.

You're more combative than I'm used to. Don't know what to make of a Faust that goes against the grain. Half of me wants you to be town. The other half can't stop going "Damn, that shit's scummy".

RR and DatSwan and e... I don't know. Probably scum there... But I wouldn't know where to begin to pick.

What is the Nash Equilibrium of risking 2 scum when you're at LYLO with a 7-3 split?

What is the % modifier on that for the choice to either do it with trackers/watchers out, or for neither of us to have taken an action thus far?

Yea it's a play that can be made and should be sometimes by some theoretical model that I'm definitely not going to bother figuring out. Like 5-10% of the time. This is not one of those times.

Just to be fair - Nash only applies when all parties involved are 100% aware of each parties optimum win strategy. As town - we do not actually know the optimum win strategy of skum. We can only apply Nash on our side hoping that outliers stand out.
Just an example - but if skum had enough info to pull off a mason fake claim, getting all of us to claim and cough up their info while skum acts last... that would kind of be an optimal win condition for skum.

I think you're misunderstanding here. I'm talking a generic 7 town 3 scum composition with some possible fakeclaims. For this there is a Nash equilibrium, even if town don't know who scum are. Obviously what roles scum actually have do affect this but given that i was throwing out a generic hypothetical that seems rather pedantic.

[Swowl]

...

of day 1, but decided against it because it woud just lead to unnatural votes and get me suspicion. O calling votes on me "bad votes" with no other explanation kind of qualifies as breadcruming too for example.

Apologies, diffemeremt definitions of the term. Disregard my previous post please.

[Swowl]

I guess there is no use in talking to e. What are the thoughts of the rest of you? We've heard plenty from e.

My thoughts are pretty open right now. Question everyone and everything.

I want quite badly to believe O and Teproc are scum. There are a number of things that put them in that column. There's also a number of things that make them likely town. First and foremost: They claimed unprovoked today prior to a Tracker and Watcher claim. They can't all 4 be scum, so that's incredibly dangerous if scum.

I could see an Eevee/Space/Qvist team. But then we have a lost Mafia Kill N2.

You're more combative than I'm used to. Don't know what to make of a Faust that goes against the grain. Half of me wants you to be town. The other half can't stop going "Damn, that shit's scummy".

RR and DatSwan and e... I don't know. Probably scum there... But I wouldn't know where to begin to pick.

What is the Nash Equilibrium of risking 2 scum when you're at LYLO with a 7-3 split?

What is the % modifier on that for the choice to either do it with trackers/watchers out, or for neither of us to have taken an action thus far?

Yea it's a play that can be made and should be sometimes by some theoretical model that I'm definitely not going to bother figuring out. Like 5-10% of the time. This is not one of those times.

Just to be fair - Nash only applies when all parties involved are 100% aware of each parties optimum win strategy. As town - we do not actually know the optimum win strategy of skum. We can only apply Nash on our side hoping that outliers stand out.
Just an example - but if skum had enough info to pull off a mason fake claim, getting all of us to claim and cough up their info while skum acts last... that would kind of be an optimal win condition for skum.

I think you're misunderstanding here. I'm talking a generic 7 town 3 scum composition with some possible fakeclaims. For this there is a Nash equilibrium, even if town don't know who scum are. Obviously what roles scum actually have do affect this but given that i was throwing out a generic hypothetical that seems rather pedantic.

Agreed on pedantic. Just wanted to make sure no one took any improper inferences from it. Kind of can’t afford mis understandings at this point.

[O]

Breascrumbing is fine, it's just actual cryptography that's forbidden. It's a bit of an arbitrary cutoff, but we've never had any issues that I can recall yet.

Robz is quite strict on this.

This
Example
Post
Really doesn't
Observe the
Conditions placed by Robz.


As a cheeky example.

[Swowl]

Breascrumbing is fine, it's just actual cryptography that's forbidden. It's a bit of an arbitrary cutoff, but we've never had any issues that I can recall yet.

Robz is quite strict on this.

This
Example
Post
Really doesn't
Observe the
Conditions placed by Robz.


As a cheeky example.

I don’t normally say lol.. but lol. Point taken.

[O]

Also... somewhat off topic but somewhat interesting regardless:


The presence of named VTs would have allowed us to softclaim all of our bids, which would only be revealed on flip. I could post, for example [the following example is specifically designed to not even suggest a hidden claim]:


Theory, Bid #9001, Draft #3
Donald X, Bid #5643, Draft #42
Ozle, Bid #2000, Draft #24

and then when I died and flipped Ozle, my true bid/draft number would be revealed.

For some reason Robz slapped my hand away when I asked if that would be OK in the personal QT though...

[faust]

Re: faust's concers.

You still have not demonstrated why the poisoner thing is more likely to come from scum. You keep saying it as if it were some obvious truth, but it simply is not. The result of poisoner claiming is that we got a free scum lynch.

It can be assumed that scum discussed the possibility of a Poisoner claim, as they were well prepared. Since they discussed this, it is likely that they were fine with a claim. If they were fine with a claim, it stands to reason that they would push it themselves for the towncred.

I don't know why scum thought the Poisoner claim was okay, but I imagine that we would have lynched the Poisoner pretty soon anyway if we found out they used their power to kill a townie on N1.

[Robz888]

Find scum! Yes!


Vote Count 4.1

faust (1): 2.71828
Teproc (1): faust

Not Voting (8): Eevee, Galzria, Teproc, SpaceAnemone, Qvist, RoadRunner7671, O, DatSwan

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on October 10 at 4:00 PM.

[Teproc]

Re: faust's concers.

You still have not demonstrated why the poisoner thing is more likely to come from scum. You keep saying it as if it were some obvious truth, but it simply is not. The result of poisoner claiming is that we got a free scum lynch.

It can be assumed that scum discussed the possibility of a Poisoner claim, as they were well prepared. Since they discussed this, it is likely that they were fine with a claim. If they were fine with a claim, it stands to reason that they would push it themselves for the towncred.

I don't know why scum thought the Poisoner claim was okay, but I imagine that we would have lynched the Poisoner pretty soon anyway if we found out they used their power to kill a townie on N1.

This doesn't make any sense. How would we have known who the Poisoner was without the claiming ?

If you don't know why scum would want the claiming, why do you think I'm scummy for proposing it, ie why do you assume scum wanted it ? All we know is they had a plan (or possibly iguana improvised) of switching claims between themselves... which is really pretty standard in this setup.

And what was the towncred worth for them, given that we wer eunlikely to lynch a candidate in the first few days anyway ?

[Eevee]

faust, do you think Teproc is the best lynch?

[Teproc]

To whoever doubted faust was stalling: this is the result of that stalling right here. And for what ? faust's claim is in no way something that would potentially harm scum to know. His draft order and bidding are completely inconsequential to the claiming process. Why did he not wa

[Teproc]

...

nt to claim again ? Like, seriously, why ? I know why I didn't want to: I'm at an actually strategically important place in the draft order, one that scum might be worried about for fakeclaims. But faust wasn't.

The only reason is that he wanted to stall, so that we'd have to lynch quickly. The claiming process is going to take another day, and then it's just one day before the WE. Which gives us the least possible time to process the claims and assertain what our best chance of lynching scum is, and preferably poisoner!scum.

[Qvist]

So, I'm back. RR is next to voting.

Not sure about those claims yet. Whoever said that, Redirector at late bid is a bit strange indeed.

[Qvist]

Claiming not voting, duh