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[Teproc]

I don't think Jimmmm would have gone for Day 2 IC at #2. I'd bet on that slot being taken by one of the VTs (WW would be my guess) who went for Poisoner.

Either that or Arch/chairs going for N3 Forensic Scientist there, because if you think about it, it would have broken the game open here. Well, maybe that's an overstatement, but had chairs not been killed, we'd be lynching the Poisoner right now.

I guess that's more likely because we know Jimm is higher than O and we "know" gkrieg is higher than faust.

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

The logic here is that I think it's very likely scum bid on at least 3 Lost numbers. If that is true, that means this group has 2 scum in it, which is pretty nice odds.

[Galzria]

Actually, upon further thought, I think you're correct regarding Jimmm. He bid Masons from draft #3 in M100. He conceivably would've done similar here. I thought he had argued that IC was better than Vig there, but that was somebody else.

[Galzria]

Wow. So....


*crickets*

Anybody care to find the remaining scum as we lose here if we don't...?

[Swowl]

I don't think Jimmmm would have gone for Day 2 IC at #2. I'd bet on that slot being taken by one of the VTs (WW would be my guess) who went for Poisoner.

Either that or Arch/chairs going for N3 Forensic Scientist there, because if you think about it, it would have broken the game open here. Well, maybe that's an overstatement, but had chairs not been killed, we'd be lynching the Poisoner right now.

I guess that's more likely because we know Jimm is higher than O and we "know" gkrieg is higher than faust.

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

The logic here is that I think it's very likely scum bid on at least 3 Lost numbers. If that is true, that means this group has 2 scum in it, which is pretty nice odds.

I mean the logic makes sense I guess, but why 3 lost numbers? Wouldn't the play be to cover 2 best of 2 best sections to hold down the top rank when moving from singles to doubles and doubles to triples, and etc?
And if not, then why would they plan to go for 3 only instead of all 4 on Lost Numbers? Wouldn't that increase their chances the most for role selection. Additionally, the more LN's they cover the easier it will be for them to determine the potential roles that are taken. The only exception to this I suppose would be to go 3 lost numbers and then one crazy outlier to determine where the crazy outlier falls on the "scoring system".

Using the info from Lost number rank plus something that is like -5 off of a number or whatever could actually of been a plan I can see being drafted up.

[Qvist]

As I don't have a better pick.

Vote: faust

Maybe he is not the Poisoner, but still better pick than potentially lynching a townie.

[Swowl]

I don't think Jimmmm would have gone for Day 2 IC at #2. I'd bet on that slot being taken by one of the VTs (WW would be my guess) who went for Poisoner.

Either that or Arch/chairs going for N3 Forensic Scientist there, because if you think about it, it would have broken the game open here. Well, maybe that's an overstatement, but had chairs not been killed, we'd be lynching the Poisoner right now.

I guess that's more likely because we know Jimm is higher than O and we "know" gkrieg is higher than faust.

I don't think we should lynch Faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

The logic here is that I think it's very likely scum bid on at least 3 Lost numbers. If that is true, that means this group has 2 scum in it, which is pretty nice odds.

In regards to having the lynch pool dictated by lost numbers - I think the ideal of creating a lynch pool based upon "x amount of lost numbers bid for by skum" is actually a decent idea... but the likelihood that the poisoner is claimed under a lost number at this point is really quite low. We are currently acting under the assumption that the Skum plan was to do the whole switcharoo thing... Why would the poisoner switch to a suspicious number?

[O]

Me and Teproc both probably don't want to lynch Faust.

[O]

I don't think Jimmmm would have gone for Day 2 IC at #2. I'd bet on that slot being taken by one of the VTs (WW would be my guess) who went for Poisoner.

Either that or Arch/chairs going for N3 Forensic Scientist there, because if you think about it, it would have broken the game open here. Well, maybe that's an overstatement, but had chairs not been killed, we'd be lynching the Poisoner right now.

I guess that's more likely because we know Jimm is higher than O and we "know" gkrieg is higher than faust.

I don't think we should lynch Faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

The logic here is that I think it's very likely scum bid on at least 3 Lost numbers. If that is true, that means this group has 2 scum in it, which is pretty nice odds.

In regards to having the lynch pool dictated by lost numbers - I think the ideal of creating a lynch pool based upon "x amount of lost numbers bid for by skum" is actually a decent idea... but the likelihood that the poisoner is claimed under a lost number at this point is really quite low. We are currently acting under the assumption that the Skum plan was to do the whole switcharoo thing... Why would the poisoner switch to a suspicious number?

My running theory is that it's a reasonable strategy for scum to fan out all 4 to different lost numbers, to give the highest chance at Poisoner, the most broken role by a mile.

Of course I personally didn't read enough or realize how broken poisoner was at game start, so i'm assuming scum collectively were smarter than I.

[2.71828.....]

Me and Teproc both probably don't want to lynch Faust.

why?

[Galzria]

I actually think Swan is probably right about scum going for a big outlier (like e), to get a handle on where the break between unique numbers and non -unique numbers lie. It's got a good shot at being middle+ on the pack, and does better the more duplicates there are. Take 3 Lost bids with it, and either you're getting good drafts with the Lost Numbers, or you're improving the value of the outlier.

Add in that e (as claimed) could be the person that RB'd LL night 2, I think he's highest chance of flipping scum.

However, I do believe that Teproc is correct in that - at least - one of the remaining scum took a Lost Number (if not 2), and since I'm not scum...

The question is, while we remain in LyLo until the Poisoner is lynched, the longer we survive the narrower the field gets. Is it worth the gamble to try and snag the Poisoner now, or do we go for our best guess at scum?

If it's the former, I'm voting RR/Swan (Probably Swan). If it's the latter I'm voting e.

[2.71828.....]

Me and Teproc both probably don't want to lynch Faust.

why?

because you want to lynch a lost number person?

[O]

Me and Teproc both probably don't want to lynch Faust.

why?

because you want to lynch a lost number person?

Yea. We have someone in mind but I'll wait for Teproc to come to confirm that we both want to start pushing them right now.

[Teproc]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

[Robz888]

I saw Walt. Then I saw him over there. Then I saw him over there. Much Walt! Wow.

Vote Count 4.2

faust (2): 2.71828, Qvist
Galzria (1): Teproc

Not Voting (7): Eevee, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, O, DatSwan, faust

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on October 10 at 4:00 PM.

[Galzria]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

Playing it safe? I've been one of the few people bothering to push after and question literally everything in our situation.

[Galzria]

Anyway, you won't lynch me today, so that's a wasted vote. Try harder.

[2.71828.....]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

Playing it safe? I've been one of the few people bothering to push after and question literally everything in our situation.

yeah, and this is why i think Galzria is town.  I think his theories are a little too crazy for scum. 

[2.71828.....]

So, people think faust is town because he is too scummy to be scum, and you don't see scum!faust playing like this?

[Galzria]

So, people think faust is town because he is too scummy to be scum, and you don't see scum!faust playing like this?

I've said this yes - however I've also noted that I've never seen scum!Faust from a town perspective before. That is, the only time I've seen him as scum I was the Traitor and knew he was scum - so my read on him was biased.

[2.71828.....]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

The logic here is that I think it's very likely scum bid on at least 3 Lost numbers. If that is true, that means this group has 2 scum in it, which is pretty nice odds.

I think that {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} makes sense to find scum, but I don't think it is Galzria.  I am much more suspicious of Space or DatSwan, more Space because of my gut.  Basically, I think scum!Space would totally take watcher.  I would need to reread Space for a better idea.  That being said, gut points me to Space in that group.

[2.71828.....]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

So, the thought that Galzria is scum who failed at getting poisoner is valid I think.  It goes back to the whole long con that scum is pulling regarding poisoner.  Basically, the scum team wins with 3 (or even 2) "mislynches" (say had the SK actually killed someone).  We actually have done extremely well given the strategy taken by scum.  (ok, yeah, the complaining about the setup disadvantage is valid...I am doing it now).

But, I just don't think that is where we are going to find the poisoner, even if Galz is scum.

[O]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

Playing it safe? I've been one of the few people bothering to push after and question literally everything in our situation.

You've equivocated on pretty much every statement of opinion possible.

Vote: Galzria

[Eevee]

I'm very limited availability all day tomorrow (and was today). I'll do some rereads on sunday to see who I'd like to lynch.

[Galzria]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

Playing it safe? I've been one of the few people bothering to push after and question literally everything in our situation.

You've equivocated on pretty much every statement of opinion possible.

Vote: Galzria

Weird. Almost like I have no concrete information.

[Qvist]

I think all other targets than faust are just shots in the dark that will likely make us lose. For faust there is at least decent indication/evidence.