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Author Topic: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards  (Read 6398 times)

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Qvist

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The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« on: November 29, 2015, 02:05:11 pm »
+13

The Best Potion Cost Cards

98 votes on this list

#10 =0 Transmute (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 2.9% ▼0.9pp / Unweighted Average: 4.2% / Median: 0% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 8.7%

Transmute is still the worst card in this list. It has by far the lowest deviation. It was voted last 79 times, that's more than 3/4 of the votes. It was never voted above average.
#9 =0 Philosopher's Stone (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 14.3% ▲0.2pp / Unweighted Average: 16.5% / Median: 11.1% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 17.3%

Philosopher's Stone is still second last with basically the same average. It has the second lowest deviation. It was voted last 13 times, once first and 5 times above average.
#8 ▼1 Golem (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 40.7% ▼3.1pp / Unweighted Average: 43.9% / Median: 44.4% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 22.0%

We're making a huge jump of over 26pp. Golem is one rank lower and 3pp worse. It would be one rank higher in the unweighted list. It was voted 3 times last and 13 times above 70%.
#7 ▼1 University (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 44.7% ▼5.5pp / Unweighted Average: 46.7% / Median: 44.4% ▼11.2pp / Standard Deviation: 22.0%

University is one rank lower and over 5pp worse. It would be one rank higher in the unweighted list. It was voted last once, 5 times first and 14 times above 70%.
#6 ▲2 Possession (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 44.7% ▲6.4pp / Unweighted Average: 43.7% / Median: 37.5% ▲4.2pp / Standard Deviation: 24.5%

It was close. Possession is only 0.01pp better than University. It's 2 ranks higher and over 6pp better. It would be still 2 ranks lower in the unweighted ranking. It has the second highest deviation in this list. It was voted last 5 times, first twice and 16 times above 70%.
#5 ▼1 Alchemist (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 58.1% ▲3.6pp / Unweighted Average: 59.5% / Median: 55.6% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 21.9%

We're making the next big step of over 13pp. Alchemist is one rank lower, but over 3pp better. It would be one rank higher in the unweighted list. It was voted first 9 times and 6 times below 30%.
#4 ▲1 Apothecary (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 58.9% ▲5.7pp / Unweighted Average: 54.6% / Median: 55.6% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 22.3%

Apothecary has a small lead over Alchemist of less than 1pp. It's one rank higher and nearly 6pp better. It would be one rank lower in the unweighted ranking. It has the third highest deviation in this list. It was voted first twice and last twice. It was voted below 30% 14 times.
#3 =0 Vineyard (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 66.6% ▼4.7pp / Unweighted Average: 64.7% / Median: 71.4% ▼6.4pp / Standard Deviation: 26.2%

Vineyard is on the same rank, but nearly 5pp worse. It has the highest deviation in this list. It was voted first 11 times, last once and 14 times below 30%.
#2 =0 Familiar (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 78.0% ▼7.3pp / Unweighted Average: 79.1% / Median: 77.8% ▼11.1pp / Standard Deviation: 19.8%

Familiar is also on the same rank, but lost over 7pp. It was voted first 26 times and 7 times below average.
#1 =0 Scrying Pool (Alchemy) Weighted Average: 90.7% ▲5.0pp / Unweighted Average: 87.1% / Median: 88.9% =0pp / Standard Deviation: 18.0%

Scrying Pool stays on the first rank and even is 5pp better. The lead is now over 12pp big (in comparison to 0.4pp last year). It has the third lowest deviation in this list. It was voted first 48 times and 5 times below average.

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2015, 02:10:00 pm »
+12

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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2015, 05:51:54 pm »
0

No surprises here, except that I had the top three upside down, vineyard is just an objective in itself, and probably the fact that Curses stop Pool made me vote Pool in that match. Really, they're all very good cards all the way down to Golem.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2015, 06:08:05 pm »
+2

No surprises here, except that I had the top three upside down, vineyard is just an objective in itself, and probably the fact that Curses stop Pool made me vote Pool in that match. Really, they're all very good cards all the way down to Golem.

Curses don't really stop Pool. In fact, Pool makes your deck a lot more resistant to junking. Even if they did stop Pool, that would not make Familiar better; it would only be better head to head. Scrying Pool is a card that changes the majority of kingdoms it's in to Scrying Pool kingdoms. It can draw absurd amounts of cards while pestering the opponent; the card is practically an archetype in and of itself. It's one of the most centralizing cards in the entire game. Familiar is a lot simpler to work around. (and it can be brutal a lot of the time, so that is saying something for Pool) I also ranked Vineyard above Familiar, but I think that's a bit more debatable.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2015, 06:38:45 pm »
+2

I think people are finally realizing that the point of Possession is not the fact that it "attacks" - that's really more of a nuisance than anything - but the fact that it gives you an extra turn, the only restriction being, it's with someone else's deck.  In a mirror match, that makes it a lot better to have than Outpost.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2015, 10:24:09 pm »
0

don't like golem below uni or possession, and i think vineyard has a real argument for #1 (voted that way myself).  vineyard is hands down the strongest alt-VP card i would think...its peak point value is nuts, and it lends itself to quick 3-piles better than any other alt-VP.  it strikes me as basically equal to scrying pool, both in terms of its effect on the game and how often you can ignore it.

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2015, 07:11:08 am »
0

Personally I like Familiar down below apothecary(maybe alchemist) and uni above possession. I like vineyards at second. My problem with vineyard above scrying pool is sometimes the vineyards are quite slow whereas a scrying pool deck is not.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2015, 07:13:42 am by Limetime »
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2015, 08:05:52 am »
0

Vineyard's better than Familiar. It's incredible how well Vineyard has stood the test of time as alt-VP and remains one of the most competitive ways to obtain Victory points.

My list (which I didn't finish :/) was something like SP, Vineyard, Familiar, Apoth, Alchemist, Possession, Golem, Uni, PS, Transmute.

I think Golem is more often useful than University is, but there are some boards just loaded with engine components that you can really milk University for everything it's worth I guess.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2015, 08:12:37 am »
0

Yes, familliar is overrated here. Its one of most ignorable cursers, I would put it behind vineyard and apothecary.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2015, 11:35:16 am »
0

No surprises here, except that I had the top three upside down, vineyard is just an objective in itself, and probably the fact that Curses stop Pool made me vote Pool in that match. Really, they're all very good cards all the way down to Golem.

Curses don't really stop Pool. In fact, Pool makes your deck a lot more resistant to junking. Even if they did stop Pool, that would not make Familiar better; it would only be better head to head. Scrying Pool is a card that changes the majority of kingdoms it's in to Scrying Pool kingdoms. It can draw absurd amounts of cards while pestering the opponent; the card is practically an archetype in and of itself. It's one of the most centralizing cards in the entire game. Familiar is a lot simpler to work around. (and it can be brutal a lot of the time, so that is saying something for Pool) I also ranked Vineyard above Familiar, but I think that's a bit more debatable.

I think playing most of my Alchemy games multiplayer - and with mostly the same people - leads me to overestimate Familiar here. In my experience, Familiar (Cursers) and no or weak trashing lead to games where Scrying Pools definitely help a deck, but are far from amazing (like they usually are).
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2015, 01:04:08 pm »
0

I don't understand the hate for Familiar.  I think it's correct where it is (and all top 3 are, for that matter).  Just like any other junker, it's sometimes ignorable; but when it's not, it's basically a must-buy regardless of what else you're going for.  Even in a Scrying Pool game, I'm probably going to pick up a Familiar or 2 as soon as I can, similar to how I'll usually pick up a Monty before any Rebuilds in a Rebuild game.  But if you don't think Familiar is that powerful (when it shouldn't be ignored), then go right ahead and let me give you 10 Curses.

EDIT:
Familiar is the only non-terminal junker, right?
« Last Edit: November 30, 2015, 01:06:02 pm by Dingan »
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2015, 01:12:58 pm »
0

Familiar is the only non-terminal junker, right?

Cultist should count... and that's considered the strongest junker in the game.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2015, 01:13:06 pm »
0

I don't understand the hate for Familiar.  I think it's correct where it is (and all top 3 are, for that matter).  Just like any other junker, it's sometimes ignorable; but when it's not, it's basically a must-buy regardless of what else you're going for.  Even in a Scrying Pool game, I'm probably going to pick up a Familiar or 2 as soon as I can, similar to how I'll usually pick up a Monty before any Rebuilds in a Rebuild game.  But if you don't think Familiar is that powerful (when it shouldn't be ignored), then go right ahead and let me give you 10 Curses.

EDIT:
Familiar is the only non-terminal junker, right?

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow, but if you can't defend against it by the time it comes around, you definitely lose the game. Good trashing really isn't enough; it takes something like good trashing and great cheap quick draw, cheap because you need to be ready to be hit with two familiars per shuffle by shuffle four or so. That said, I also put Familiar below Vineyard, Vineyard is just crazy good.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2015, 01:21:52 pm »
0

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow

Please explain.  Unless I'm unlucky, I'll typically buy a Familiar on T3 or T4, and play it by T6.  This is no slower than, say, Witch.  The main disadvantages Familiar has over something like Witch is that it's a useless cantrip after the Curses are gone, and that the Potion in your deck is junk (before the Curses are gone).  But neither of these things make the card slow, so what do you mean?
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2015, 01:33:38 pm »
+2

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow

Please explain.  Unless I'm unlucky, I'll typically buy a Familiar on T3 or T4, and play it by T6.  This is no slower than, say, Witch.  The main disadvantages Familiar has over something like Witch is that it's a useless cantrip after the Curses are gone, and that the Potion in your deck is junk (before the Curses are gone).  But neither of these things make the card slow, so what do you mean?

On average you will play your Familiar later than any other junker because you can never open with it and hitting 3P is harder than hitting $5 on the reshuffle. I don't think this weakens it much, but it's true.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2015, 01:35:19 pm by Mic Qsenoch »
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2015, 01:51:14 pm »
+2

Also, when opening for a 5-cost junker, you can open with a good 4-cost accelerator like Ironmonger, Magpie, or Spice Merchant.  So even if you buy the junkers on the same turn, you might see the junker earlier if you don't have to open with Potion.  Finally, it's possible to buy a 5-cost junker on turns 3 and 4 (definitely a good idea with Cultist, possibly a good idea with Mountebank).  These factors aren't always in play, of course.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2015, 03:59:50 pm »
+1

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow

Please explain.  Unless I'm unlucky, I'll typically buy a Familiar on T3 or T4, and play it by T6.  This is no slower than, say, Witch.  The main disadvantages Familiar has over something like Witch is that it's a useless cantrip after the Curses are gone, and that the Potion in your deck is junk (before the Curses are gone).  But neither of these things make the card slow, so what do you mean?

Witch is also slow, although not as slow. To wit:

I'm not convinced that the odds of playing Familiar by Turn 6 are above 50%. You have roughly a 40% chance of failing to get one on the second shuffle, and then if you manage to get one on the second shuffle you have roughly a 30% chance of it not showing up in turns 5 or 6 (you draw two non-familiar cards on turn 5, and then of the remaining 12 cards in your deck you want familiar to be one of the top 8 cards), so my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that Familiar by Turn 6 is under 50. This is particularly bad for 2nd player where ideally you play it by Turn 5 (else your opponent gets 4 curse-free shuffles.)

Of course the above calculation ignores other kingdom cards, but most of the cards that change the variables in the above calculation are cards that let you play cards faster (trashing, cycling) which are either too expensive to buy when you have a potion in your deck or increase your odds of missing 3P. (Chancellor being an exception is one reason that Chancellor/Potion is a surprisingly not-awful opening on familiar boards).

For Witch, you are extremely likely to buy it in the second shuffle with a normal otherwise-deck-helping opening, not to mention the 16% chance you get it in the first shuffle. (This is why Sea Hag is unequivocably better than Familiar in a head-to-head. Witch is less clear, although opening anything other than Witch on a 5-2 would be insanity of course.)

tl;dr unreliable, computed probabilistically, yields "slow," but maybe i should've said "of unreliable speed"
« Last Edit: November 30, 2015, 04:01:33 pm by ehunt »
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2015, 09:07:25 am »
0

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow

Please explain.  Unless I'm unlucky, I'll typically buy a Familiar on T3 or T4, and play it by T6.  This is no slower than, say, Witch.  The main disadvantages Familiar has over something like Witch is that it's a useless cantrip after the Curses are gone, and that the Potion in your deck is junk (before the Curses are gone).  But neither of these things make the card slow, so what do you mean?

Witch is also slow, although not as slow. To wit:

I'm not convinced that the odds of playing Familiar by Turn 6 are above 50%. You have roughly a 40% chance of failing to get one on the second shuffle, and then if you manage to get one on the second shuffle you have roughly a 30% chance of it not showing up in turns 5 or 6 (you draw two non-familiar cards on turn 5, and then of the remaining 12 cards in your deck you want familiar to be one of the top 8 cards), so my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that Familiar by Turn 6 is under 50. This is particularly bad for 2nd player where ideally you play it by Turn 5 (else your opponent gets 4 curse-free shuffles.)

Of course the above calculation ignores other kingdom cards, but most of the cards that change the variables in the above calculation are cards that let you play cards faster (trashing, cycling) which are either too expensive to buy when you have a potion in your deck or increase your odds of missing 3P. (Chancellor being an exception is one reason that Chancellor/Potion is a surprisingly not-awful opening on familiar boards).

For Witch, you are extremely likely to buy it in the second shuffle with a normal otherwise-deck-helping opening, not to mention the 16% chance you get it in the first shuffle. (This is why Sea Hag is unequivocably better than Familiar in a head-to-head. Witch is less clear, although opening anything other than Witch on a 5-2 would be insanity of course.)

tl;dr unreliable, computed probabilistically, yields "slow," but maybe i should've said "of unreliable speed"
I would def. open count over witch on a 5/2. Count trashes ~4 cards per play which only gives opponents one junk. I would also open junk dealer, and upgrade. If there is a two cost trasher I would definitely consider not opening witch with strong 5ers like wharf.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2015, 10:02:24 am »
0

(I was considering a head-to-head where the only action cards are Witch and Familiar when I said that.)
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2015, 10:40:00 am »
+2

The thing about Familiar is that it's slow

Please explain.  Unless I'm unlucky, I'll typically buy a Familiar on T3 or T4, and play it by T6.  This is no slower than, say, Witch.  The main disadvantages Familiar has over something like Witch is that it's a useless cantrip after the Curses are gone, and that the Potion in your deck is junk (before the Curses are gone).  But neither of these things make the card slow, so what do you mean?

Witch is also slow, although not as slow. To wit:

I'm not convinced that the odds of playing Familiar by Turn 6 are above 50%. You have roughly a 40% chance of failing to get one on the second shuffle, and then if you manage to get one on the second shuffle you have roughly a 30% chance of it not showing up in turns 5 or 6 (you draw two non-familiar cards on turn 5, and then of the remaining 12 cards in your deck you want familiar to be one of the top 8 cards), so my back-of-the-envelope estimate is that Familiar by Turn 6 is under 50. This is particularly bad for 2nd player where ideally you play it by Turn 5 (else your opponent gets 4 curse-free shuffles.)

Of course the above calculation ignores other kingdom cards, but most of the cards that change the variables in the above calculation are cards that let you play cards faster (trashing, cycling) which are either too expensive to buy when you have a potion in your deck or increase your odds of missing 3P. (Chancellor being an exception is one reason that Chancellor/Potion is a surprisingly not-awful opening on familiar boards).

For Witch, you are extremely likely to buy it in the second shuffle with a normal otherwise-deck-helping opening, not to mention the 16% chance you get it in the first shuffle. (This is why Sea Hag is unequivocably better than Familiar in a head-to-head. Witch is less clear, although opening anything other than Witch on a 5-2 would be insanity of course.)

tl;dr unreliable, computed probabilistically, yields "slow," but maybe i should've said "of unreliable speed"
I would def. open count over witch on a 5/2. Count trashes ~4 cards per play which only gives opponents one junk. I would also open junk dealer, and upgrade. If there is a two cost trasher I would definitely consider not opening witch with strong 5ers like wharf.

Doesn't Count only trash 3 cards per play, unless it's combo'd with something else? And that's in the best-case scenario where 3 of the cards in your hand are junk.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2015, 10:56:16 am »
0

Doesn't Count only trash 3 cards per play, unless it's combo'd with something else? And that's in the best-case scenario where 3 of the cards in your hand are junk.

Yes, but you still want to open with it over Witch, because you might find yourself in that best-case scenario pretty often considering that you probably don't have more than 2 non-junk cards in your deck after the first reshuffle and might not even have more than one.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2015, 11:37:50 am »
0

Doesn't Count only trash 3 cards per play, unless it's combo'd with something else? And that's in the best-case scenario where 3 of the cards in your hand are junk.

In the best case it trashes 3 junk cards and replaces a fourth with a copper. Requires an exceptional draw though.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2015 Edition: Potion cost cards
« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2015, 12:35:33 pm »
0

Doesn't Count only trash 3 cards per play, unless it's combo'd with something else? And that's in the best-case scenario where 3 of the cards in your hand are junk.

In the best case it trashes 3 junk cards and replaces a fourth with a copper. Requires an exceptional draw though.

And an opponent opening IGG or something.
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