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[Witherweaver]

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?

Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.

Unless they're brazen.. or they plan to use this as a defense in case they ever have to.

I feel like you've maybe never rolled scum before.  This is probably a townslip.

I don't follow.  I'm saying that adamantly pushing a mislynch is something a scum would want to do because then they can go "why would I want to do that if I was scum?  It would be crazy to be in the center of attention!", and convince everyone that scum wouldn't do that.  Plus they get the mislynch.   

[Twistedarcher]

Pre-reread, I'm most suspicious of Xeiron. He doesn't seem like his usual town self (no plans yet), and seems much more cautious and afraid to put himself out there. He's normally pretty out there as town, in the sense that he's not afraid to make his opinion known, and usually pushes what he thinks is correct pretty loudly, even though he doesn't have many posts. I haven't seen much of that pushing so far this game.

I also think the way he avoided the Sudgy wagon was potentially a position scum wanted -- he avoided it at all costs, saying that Sudgy was definitely town, but I remember that I didn't see an actual defense, just "Sudgy is obviously town to me". I need to see if this is true or it was me having blinders on, but it was suspicious to me when it happened, and it still is in light of Sudgy's flip.

[ashersky]

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?

Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.

Unless they're brazen.. or they plan to use this as a defense in case they ever have to.

I feel like you've maybe never rolled scum before.  This is probably a townslip.

I don't follow.  I'm saying that adamantly pushing a mislynch is something a scum would want to do because then they can go "why would I want to do that if I was scum?  It would be crazy to be in the center of attention!", and convince everyone that scum wouldn't do that.  Plus they get the mislynch.   

I'm saying you are probably town.  You don't have to argue against it.

[Twistedarcher]

Yuma I think you should shoot earlier today.

If you misfire, that's 9 alive, with lynch And 2 potential night kills we are at 6, with likely 3 scum alive if everything goes bad. That means that if you shoot earlier we have the potential to no-lynch to maintain parity.

If you don't shoot today you are left shooting in a potential lylo situation which is not a good thing.

Do you think you are planning on shooting today? I think you should, plus I'd love to have your claim verified.

[xeiron]

I support yuma shooting today.

[XerxesPraelor]

Vote Count 1.FINAL:

sudgy (7): Twistedarcher, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, AndrewisFTTW, yuma, ashersky, Jimmmmm
AndrewisFTTW (6): XerxesPraelor, sudgy, Witherweaver, xeiron
ashersky (1): shraeye
Twistedarcher (1): faust

Quick wagon check:

On-wagon: Twistedarcher, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, AndrewisFTTW, yuma, ashersky, Jimmmmm
Off-wagon: XerxesPraelor, sudgy, Witherweaver, xeiron, shraeye, faust

Leaves Xerxes, WW, and xeiron off wagon, everyone else alive on.

ADK was the first to suggest lynching on wagon today.  I don't think it's right to give off-wagon a pass.

Look at the flips: every single person who was killed was off-wagon and town; I think it's pretty obvious that there's a trend there.

Okay, I'm a mailman. I sent a message to shraeye last night. I think my role is pretty much exactly average and so doesn't help scum much in deciding who to kill, but does narrow down who the SK could be for them, which is good for us.

So you early claim a "useless" role and say you targeted a dead guy who can't confirm it?

Sounds like trying to get around and ahead of any trackers/watchers, etc. to me.

vote: xerxespraelor

I gave the reason I claimed: to help scum get the SK (if one exists). I don't believe it's useless either and think it's possible I'll be night-killed. There's also an extra nice little twist that makes it more useful.

Anyway, if I message someone, will they then know I'm town? That is, does mailman often show up in scum?

P.S. Actual case on ash upcoming.

[XerxesPraelor]

I also support yuma shooting.

[XerxesPraelor]

Alright, caught up.

Honestly, not a lot there.  TA and yuma are town reads out of all of this.

I feel like there are a number of players just skating by, and it's an easy place for scum to hide.  I'd say faust, both Xs, ADK, shraeye and maybe Jimmmmm fit into that description?  Obviously can't all be scum, but seems like a good place to hide.

We've got 50 hours to deadline, basically.  I don't think we should limit this to sudgy vs. Andrew (the only two wagons currently), but need to look around.

The good thing about a lynch of either large wagon is plenty of interactions to review.  Andrew has done nothing to convince me of his innocence up to this point, and nothing going on around him has cleared him either.  sudgy is always scummy, and he's not seemingly like caught!sudgy, which he's (unfortunately for him) unable to hide very well.

I'm going to do some targeted re-reads.

I think at this point Andrew needs to seriously think about claiming, and we need to know from yuma whether or not he needs/intends to use his power Today.

I am thinking about using my power today if I am not compulsive, if I am obviously I am thinking about who to use it on. We still have time right? What is the rush?

I guess if everyone is dead set of lynching Andrew he should probably claim, but that is more up to him than to us.

You could take out a lurker, if you are compulsive and don't have strong reads.  shraeye, either X, etc.

I'll ask...

ash... if I am not going to shoot Andrew who would you suggest I shoot instead?

I think at this point i am interested in hearing opinions from everyone--well everyone that has a solid opinion on this. Don't just create an opinion for me. I only want solid opinions and I am not demanding everyone give one just for the sake of giving one.

I think the thought process if I was a dayvig who had to shoot today...

1)  Do I have a scum read I'm confident enough in to shoot them as a N1 vig?  If yes, shoot them D1.  If no...
2)  Is there consensus on a target from the majority of players?  How do I feel about those who agree?  Then...
3)  Is there a lurker or two who seem suspiciously absent from important conversations, or just laid down a vote and disappeared?

I think the answers to 2/3 would lead me to a good target.  For me, that's probably shraeye right now.  Even though he's agreed with me, and I like that, the way he agreed and left is odd to me.  Maybe he has a good excuse, and he'll be back and contributing, and I'd change my mind (which is why it's good to take time on this).  He's such a strong town player that we don't want to lose him, but man he's hard to catch as scum, too.

I'd say sudgy and the two Xs are on the scummy end of the Andrew wagon, and are probably in the "fine to lynch, so fine for yuma to shoot" category, so if I was looking for a suspicious bus (or scum helping along a mislynch), it'd be those two.

I don't have a lot of firm town reads.  Just a few scummy and a lot of null.

I don't envy your position, yuma.  It's a hard decision, and sucks if you get it wrong.

Here are all the times ash refers to me before his case. Most of them cast general suspicion on me without giving enough reason or a vote, and that's scummy. Notice that ash never voted for me until just very recently.

[ashersky]

I refer to you as part of the two Xs.  Not exactly a concerted effort to talk about you.

[XerxesPraelor]

I know it's not about me in particular (that's a very small fraction of your posts). Why does that matter? You're still spreading suspicion. (this does make me have a townier read on xeiron, though)

[Twistedarcher]

Xerxes, you do realize that for town members to win the game, they have to lynch scum right? And to lynch scum, they have to get them lynched? And to get them lynched, they have to cast suspicion on them?

There are many many people lurking by without building a case anywhere. It's so easy to not build a case at all, and then point the finger at the people who are wrong when they *do* build a case.

I do have a scummier read on Ash than I did at D1 at this point, but honestly, I am afraid that if we lynch him (or Yuma) if he's town we are in trouble D3. There are not enough active town members left who are willing to push cases, and that's what we need to get scum lynched. If Ash is town and we lynch him it's going to be very hard to push cases D2. I hate giving an activity pass D2 but there aren't enough active players pushing cases for me to want to lynch an active player D2. Too many people playing "safe" games IMO.

Vote: Xeiron He's towards the top of my list and hasn't been doing much to push cases thus far

[Jimmmmm]

You're still spreading suspicion.

What does that even mean? In a game centred around there being players who actively want to "kill" everyone else, you're suggesting that we not be suspicious of people?

[AndrewisFTTW]

TA I don't think that's a good reason not to vote ash. I agree Xeiron is scummy but he hasn't been crazy lurking. Besides, we have people in different time zones and such and I don't think we're headed for a no-lynch if that's what you're thinking.

On another note, hey ash look! Some on actually did what accused me of doing. TA just said he finds you scummy but then went ahead and voted Xeiron. I'm looking forward to you encouraging TA to vote for you instead.

TA I don't see the point of not lynching someone for fear that they might flip town. There's always that fear, barring an investigator of some sort. If Xeiron flips town we're still going to have a hard time, but I'm not going yo sit here and fret about a no-lynch on D3. We have D2 to worry about and I'm concerned with lynching scum.

[Witherweaver]

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?

Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.

Unless they're brazen.. or they plan to use this as a defense in case they ever have to.

I feel like you've maybe never rolled scum before.  This is probably a townslip.

I don't follow.  I'm saying that adamantly pushing a mislynch is something a scum would want to do because then they can go "why would I want to do that if I was scum?  It would be crazy to be in the center of attention!", and convince everyone that scum wouldn't do that.  Plus they get the mislynch.   

I'm saying you are probably town.  You don't have to argue against it.

I'm not arguing against being town.  The point is you're being dismissive of the argument I'm making without addressing it.

[yuma]

I am not interested in arguments about when I will shoot (if I have a choice in the matter, that is one that I will be making completely on my own).

[XerxesPraelor]

Xerxes, you do realize that for town members to win the game, they have to lynch scum right? And to lynch scum, they have to get them lynched? And to get them lynched, they have to cast suspicion on them?

There are many many people lurking by without building a case anywhere. It's so easy to not build a case at all, and then point the finger at the people who are wrong when they *do* build a case.

I do have a scummier read on Ash than I did at D1 at this point, but honestly, I am afraid that if we lynch him (or Yuma) if he's town we are in trouble D3. There are not enough active town members left who are willing to push cases, and that's what we need to get scum lynched. If Ash is town and we lynch him it's going to be very hard to push cases D2. I hate giving an activity pass D2 but there aren't enough active players pushing cases for me to want to lynch an active player D2. Too many people playing "safe" games IMO.

Vote: Xeiron He's towards the top of my list and hasn't been doing much to push cases thus far

They should do it more directly though, with votes and cases. That is a good point about the activity, but he's still by far my strongest scum read. Which of the people who post less seems scummiest to you? I can spend time to re-read, but looking at everyone is just a pain.

Yuma: why? you have reads that strong?

[yuma]

Yuma: why? you have reads that strong?

no that is the whole point

[XerxesPraelor]

Yuma: why? you have reads that strong?

no that is the whole point

Then why not listen to arguments? It's simply irrational to just throw away reasons.

Some things that should be influencing how you shoot:
You're more likely to be (mis)lynched if you don't;
Number-based reasons;
Information sooner;
Other peoples' reads
...

If you don't take those into account (or figure out that the amount that they could be controlled by scum is too much and that they'll probably be corrupted), we'll for sure have a worse chance of winning.

[XerxesPraelor]

You're still spreading suspicion.

What does that even mean? In a game centred around there being players who actively want to "kill" everyone else, you're suggesting that we not be suspicious of people?

The important thing is that the way he was casting suspicion made it more likely that people would think we were scum without realizing that the idea originated from him. Characteristics of what he did that do that include:
Not voting (even after a big case on me!);
Keeping the reasons minor and small;
Doing it repeatedly almost the same way each time.

That's why I'm voting for him.

[yuma]

Then why not listen to arguments? It's simply irrational to just throw away reasons.

Some things that should be influencing how you shoot:
You're more likely to be (mis)lynched if you don't;
Number-based reasons;
Information sooner;
Other peoples' reads
...

If you don't take those into account (or figure out that the amount that they could be controlled by scum is too much and that they'll probably be corrupted), we'll for sure have a worse chance of winning.

I am willing to listen to people telling me who I should potentially shoot. But I will not be told when to shoot--even under threat of lynching. You are assuming that I am not taking into consideration the numbers part--which I am thank you very much and I agree information is good, but information is never a reason to kill someone in my opinion.

So if you want me to shoot, present a good case on why I should shoot them over lynching them and I'll consider it based on my read of you, my read of that specific player and the context of the game.

[AndrewisFTTW]

So I decided to reread TA and specifically TA and ash interactions. At the beginning of my wagon, TA and ash have a brief argument about assuming the number of scum in games. TA disagrees with ash but decides to vote me anyway. Here's my original argument about TA's vote:

3)

I don't find the scum slip that compelling -- we did this same thing in innovation and it came from town, not scum -- but I DO find this response from Andrew scummy. It's too...calm?

vote:Andrew [/]

TA votes me for defending myself. I'm curious as to what about my defense is scummy and his response is this:

It just reads scummy to me. Sorry, I can't give you better than that right now, and I'm not saying you are super duper 100% scum or anything, but I get a scummy vibe from it.

Leaving me absolutely nothing to dispute. How convenient. Someone thinks my posts are scummy but can't quite articulate it besides saying they're "calm" in the original post. My "calm" posts that TA are referring to are a total of two posts. Here they are:

Scumslip? Really? I thought in big games there are three and in small games there are two. Is this incorrect?

Did I accidentally join a drunk mafia game?

I found this, casting suspicion and brushing it off in the same post:

Just re-read TA.  He started off very odd, not at all like his IC self in ZM17, for example.  He's adjusted back to the norm in the more recent stuff though.  Not sure why.

There's a little discussion between them about it, and TA re-reads himself (?) And ash responds by reminding him and everyone that TA was a mislynch. The discussion dies after this. Nobody else notices and ash doesn't ask for anyone else's opinion.

I just checked early posts and I see what you mean if you're referring to posts such as #189 and #223. Theyre definitely more analytical than my usual posts lately  which I think tend to a more conversational tone. Is this it? I guess an explanation could be that I've been phone posting a lot lately and I actually managed to get down and write out my thoughts coherently. But really idk

That makes sense.  I've had a lot of TA lately, so I guess it's just fresh on my mind.  I'm specifically referring to when we mislynched you on D1 of Hangman and then your D1 of ZM17 as IC as the games to which I'm comparing you.

You'll recall I had a mistaken scum read on you in Hangman based on one post, but was able to pivot from that to Teproc.  Did you mostly phone post in ZM17?

Here's TA's sudgy vote, which I don't think there's much substance to:

I have a town read on ash.  I'm starting to realize his tactics (which are basically mine on overload), and all that he has done has seemed like what I would expect from town.  I've seen scum ash, and he's usually blatantly obvious about it, argues his way into the center of attention and out of being lynched, gets lynched on D3 or D4, then nobody has anything to go off of because everybody's been talking about him so they lose to his partners.  I'm not seeing that here.

This was also a scummy post from Sudgy that I found extremely faked. He also has basically no content except for outside of Andrew. Humm...

Vote: Sudgy

Ash town read on TA:

Alright, caught up.

Honestly, not a lot there.  TA and yuma are town reads out of all of this.

There's this brief yuma/TA moment near the end of the day. Why does TA specifically point out him and ash? There are other people who didn't look elsewhere. I think Xeiron, WW, sudgy, Jimm (maybe?), shraeye, XP, are all people who didn't move their vote from me or sudgy.

Well then should I just day-vig one of the players not currently around and hasn't been around?

I mean... we have had time to get a lynch... 10 days if I remember right. I have been trying to get people to look elsewhere the entire game it feels like, so maybe we need to go back and see who has tried to stop looking elsewhere?

I am probably the first person you will find if you look at that...Ash too...but I do agree with the sentiment that the stalled wagons are more likely to be scum.

Part two coming soon but I'm hungry.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Here's a shraeye response to part of a case faust made on TA. I didn't want to quote the whole thing because it's long and I'm typing my own updated report. When faust says "he tries to discredit yuma" he means TA. Again this comes back to shraeye being NKed while tunneling ash.

That should read "he tries to discredit yuma"

Isn't ash also discrediting yuma?  but nonetheless you only have great things to say about ash.  suspicious.

Here is ash's sudgy vote, immediately after and in response to my claim. Notice there's no mention of the possibility of a fakeclaim. Ash's main priority right now is to get off my wagon ASAP instead of questioning anything, like he's doing now.

I can either doctor or roleblock. If someone targets me, I both doctor and roleblock my target.

vote: sudgy

Again, mentioning him and ash:

I guess a decent place to start looking is people who didn't want to move away from Andrew/Sudgy (assuming Andrew is town, which I believe). I know I was guilty of this, I think Ash may have been too? People who didn't want to lynch either get some town points I guess, although it's an easy stance for scum to take since I didn't feel anyone was really pushing any other wagons besides Sudgy/Andrew.

And again...

Something that I think is worth analyzing moreso in RMM than normal games is who the night kills are. Since everyone is a PR scum isn't doing much PR-hunting with their kills but rather looking at who they find threatening / who they think they can't get lynched. So once again that incriminates me and Ash...man I am looking scummy.

TA's posts leading up to sudgy's lynch are all about focusing on getting a lynch D1, which doesn't really mean much. But it seemed like he really, really wanted a lynch. There's was also a brief argument between ash and shraeye about a no-lynch. Yuma agreed with shraeye that a no-lynch wouldn't be a bad idea, and TA and ash were on the complete opposite side of the coin. Also neither of them seemed to care whether it was me or sudgy that was lynched, which conflicts with ash's unrelenting tunneling of me most of D1 and into D2.

So that's what I found. Let me know what you guys think or if I missed anything.

[AndrewisFTTW]

I don't know where that smiley face came from... creepy!

[AndrewisFTTW]

Concerning ash's town reads on yuma and TA, of course yuma is a town read because of his claim. But TA? And nobody else?

[Jorbles]

Vote Count 2.1:

ashersky (3): Archetype, XerxesPraelor, AndrewisFTTW
Jimmmmmm (1): xeiron
XerxesPraelor (1): ashersky
xeiron (1): Twistedarcher

Not Voting (4): yuma, Witherweaver, A Drowned Kernel, AndrewisFTTW, Jimmmmm

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.