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[chairs]

I think I'd rather move to Robz over ash, but I still feel most comfortable with Teproc of the 3 wagons currently out.

I have my reasons to believe ash is probably town.

[Robz888]

I think I'd rather move to Robz over ash, but I still feel most comfortable with Teproc of the 3 wagons currently out.

I have my reasons to believe ash is probably town.

What are they?

[mail-mi]

Im here, and will be on and off before deadline. Anyway, yeah teproc is the best of those lynches  but I would be willing to switch to aash becase after sleeping on it, my opinion has changed slightly and he's a null read now.

[Robz888]

Now, yuma has a decent point about getting more wagons going, so I'll Vote: Robz888 to see if there's more support for it that ashersky.

I see that you've said a couple times that you like my lynch. Have you ever said why? I know why ash wants to lynch me; he wants to lynch everyone who calls him out.

Well, there's this, which was my initial reason for suspecting you:

Ashersky: Still my preference, I've said repeatedly that I think having a ridiculous read on faust was his scum strategy that backfired after faust committed game suicide on Day 1. The fact that practically no one else likes this case as much as I do makes me especially confident in it. But, you know, this is the sort of thing town ash COULD have done, unfortunately.

Liopoil: I know what the case is now. Basically, it's that he's pretty much a lurker until called out, and then he actually does work sort of hard to not be a lurkers (harder than, say, Eevee in this game for example). I guess that's fairly scummy. Like ash, it could just be the case that this is how lio just is.

I find both of these suspicious. Both are disclaimed at the end saying that it might be town!ash or town!lio. ash first:

I agree with the case on ashersky, and I don't think I'm voting for him. I should be. Vote: Ashersky. anyway, the bit that makes me suspicious of robz is that he says it could be town!ash. town!robz is always fairly sure that this is town ash when he does the town ash thing. I can pull quotes from multiple games if necessary. Should ash flip town, I think it really makes robz suspicious.

I really find it weird that robz isn't totally sold on the reason for suspecting me like he was before. Reads to me like it was an attempt to get me mislynched yesterday, but today there's more viable mislynches like ashersky. I remember he sort of did that in the B2B game that got reset, so when robz was scum and I was still town.

So I'm thinking that most likely one of robz and ashersky is scum, but ashersky is still more likely.

and then e added this, some of which I agree with:
 

In fact, Robz? Here is some stuff on him- Opens up the liopoil case that "scum!lio struggles early but plays better late."  Gets a bunch of sheep.  He originally gives slight credence to my Faust case, but then is turned off the case by Ashersky.  He throws out his vote for sale here saying he is concerned about a bad D1.  Jumps to Lekkit for a lurker lynch temporarily before realizing Lekkit wasn't really lurking just posting less frequently but still with content, then moves to Eevee as his lurker lynch after I point out that Eevee is more of a lurker.  Throws his vote out for sale again.  Has the whole episode of "wait no one post info about the setup because it might help scum!faust with a fakeclaim." (starting here)  He then jumps onto the little wagon against me for a bit here before Faust reveals that he was lying about his fakeclaim.  Robz then ends the day with his vote on me, after unvoting Faust to avoid ending the day before some people could comment.  I recognize his "D1s are famously lacksadaisical" (to quote Ash from BM14 since he put it so nicely in the role PM) but putting his vote up for sale? twice?  His D2 has not been great but no one has really stood out too much as being amazing, and I think he can probably (safely) trust that his meta will carry him through and avoid a lynch.

So this has been long and winding and a bunch of people posted while I was typing this, but I think it lands me at vote: Robz.  I am not comfortable with the way he went through D1, and he has not done anything today to shake that feeling.

I see lekkit voted for ash, and with my vote, that would be 4 people... are there two more who would vote for ash? at this point I really prefer that over robz.

oh, and CHAIRS! how did that get forgotten. We should lynch chairs if we can't get ashersky. maybe over robz even.

teproc is behind all three of those above. I'll vote there to get a lynch, but I think we can get a better one.

All the reasons in here are really, really bad though. 2.7's reasons are just a summary of things I've done. And your thing... aren't you falling for the "hedging is scummy" argument, which has always and only been pushed by people who are themselves scum?

[2.71828.....]

I think I'd rather move to Robz over ash, but I still feel most comfortable with Teproc of the 3 wagons currently out.

I have my reasons to believe ash is probably town.

What are they?

Chairs, at this point, I completely agree with Robz that you need to share with us those reasons.  In my mind, you are 100% PR or scum, and I am about 70% scum on you right now.  If you have extra information, I think it is time for you to share that with us.  You don't have to full claim or anything, but we need you to share your reasoning, at least in regards to this since Ash is a viable lynch

[2.71828.....]

4 hours to deadline.

lynches that I think could possibly happen in order of likelihood:  Ash, Robz, Chairs, Teproc

Even though Teproc is at 4 votes, I really don't see more people joining that wagon.  Ash is the easy lynch, but I am not a fan as of right now (will vote for a lynch though).  I think Robz is more likely than Chairs because he has a couple votes on him right now.  I put chairs down as viable at all because I really think we could get the support for the lynch before deadline.

I know I am not an IC or anything to demand posts from people, but I think it would help if everyone listed these four players in order of lynch preference.  For me:  Robz>Chairs>Ash>Teproc

[Voltaire]

Ash is the easy lynch, but I am not a fan as of right now (will vote for a lynch though).

Ash is not an easy lynch! He drew 2ish votes at the start of the day and then just sat there. Now some people are finally coming around on him.

ash > Teproc > chairs/Robz

[Robz888]

Ash>>>>chairs>Teproc>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Robz

[Lekkit]

ash, chairs, Robz, Teproc.

[chairs]

I am a Tracker.  Ashersky did not target anybody last night.

What's done is done, I guess.  This isn't like being a cop, where it clears him, but to me this feels like town!ash anyway.

[Teproc]

Still phoneposting but I'll have more thoughts in a few hours. I don't like any of our current wagons except the chairs one (for reasons explained before, I don't have strong scum reads so he's the most likely to be scum ).

vote : chairs

If I had to order the current wagons : chairs >>>>>>>>> Robz > ash

[Teproc]

Well then. unvote

[liopoil]

Chairs, why did you target ash? ash, don't neccessarily counter if you did target someone, there could be a bus driver.

[2.71828.....]

I am a Tracker.  Ashersky did not target anybody last night.

What's done is done, I guess.  This isn't like being a cop, where it clears him, but to me this feels like town!ash anyway.

Ash hasn't claimed anything has he?  Other than flavor.  This new info makes me think Ash could very well be a VT.  If we believe chairs.  I tend to believe chairs, I just wish he had come out the gate and claimed to start D2

[Robz888]

For your consideration: The following is my fake claim on Day 2 of Mafia XIX. My partner, mcmc, was in trouble, and here's what I did to save him:

Okay, I do think the Mcmc lynch is a mistake. I am a 1-shot Tracker. Last night, I tracked mcmcsalot. He took no action. I think this makes him significantly less likely to be scum, given what we know already.

FWIW, I have some (disastrous) experience as a Tracker (in M-XII, where I epic fail at it), but I still think my psychology for picking who to track was pretty much on in that game, so I stuck with it. I don't want to track the obvious people, because the obvious people aren't going to kill anyone (because they expect the tracker to be watching them). This is mafia 101, even in games without a tracker for some reason the less suspicious partner does the kill (Galz always did the kill in M-II; I was more suspicious, even though it didn't matter). So I was not going to track the people who came under heavy suspicion yesterday, which includes shraeye, Jimm, and Eevee basically. I was never going to track Galzria because he's just too obvious a person anyway, and there's always that likelihood he gets nightkilled just for being Galzria--which I bet is what happened here; I doubt a scum faction really thought they were shooting scum in Galz. So I wanted to pick someone who I thought could be scum, but who didn't know that I thought they could be scum. Like, Glooble and Dsell I really didn't think were scum, so I wasn't picking them. Also, just from what I know about my brother, he's like a really gung-ho guy (he posted his phone number in blitz whatever for goodness sake, so people could tell him when the lynch was happening), and it seemed reasonable if he was on a scumfaction he'd be likely to be the one taking the shot, just because he wanted to, in addition to everything else.

Well, he didn't do anything. I've thought about this a lot; this means he's probably not scum, right? If he were scum, and he were on Galzria's team, well, Galz is the rolecop, and it's pretty likely Galz can't take the shot AND rolecop someone, so unless it's a three person team, Mcmc takes the shot there. If Mcmc were SK, he has to take the shot. Of course there's a perfectly plausible scenario where Mcmc is on some other team, and for whatever reason was not the person who took the shot.

But anyway, I think we'd have to be PRETTY SURE to lynch him, since mathematically it seems to me like his odds of scum are much, much lower, right? I wouldn't bring this up if I thought it was a slamdunk case, but it's not a slamdunk case and from where I am standing it is the least likely lynch to hit scum.

[Voltaire]

I am a Tracker.  Ashersky did not target anybody last night.

What's done is done, I guess.  This isn't like being a cop, where it clears him, but to me this feels like town!ash anyway.

Ash who got heat wouldn't do the kill.

Scum have a decent chance of having a busdriver.

I'm still willing to lynch ash, is what I am saying. Not as willing as before, but still very very very willing.

[Robz888]

Not saying that chairs' result is necessarily fake, just that I didn't something eerily similar to save my partner from lynch on Day 2 of another game. I worked, by the way--mcmc was spared and my scum team won that game.

If chairs isn't lying, which may of course be the case, I totally see why he would come forward with this, but it proves very little. Scum!ash has partners, possibly a bus driver, possibly ninja-shot.

[liopoil]

Yeah, I still want to lynch ash

[Voltaire]

For the record, I am currently believing of the claim.

[Voltaire]

So, I'll lynch ash or Teproc. But I vastly prefer ash. That said, I do like both lynches so I am strangely serenely happy here at deadline.

[2.71828.....]

The nice thing that lynching Ash would do is if he were scum we have basically caught scum!chairs a la Robz being scum in the game he quoted

[Voltaire]

The nice thing that lynching Ash would do is if he were scum we have basically caught scum!chairs a la Robz being scum in the game he quoted

No...that's not true at all. Chairs could be town, ash could be scum who didn't do the kill, and X could be ash's partner who did do the kill.

[2.71828.....]

The nice thing that lynching Ash would do is if he were scum we have basically caught scum!chairs a la Robz being scum in the game he quoted

No...that's not true at all. Chairs could be town, ash could be scum who didn't do the kill, and X could be ash's partner who did do the kill.

Well it would at least make us seriously consider chairs as our next lynch

[Voltaire]

The nice thing that lynching Ash would do is if he were scum we have basically caught scum!chairs a la Robz being scum in the game he quoted

No...that's not true at all. Chairs could be town, ash could be scum who didn't do the kill, and X could be ash's partner who did do the kill.

Well it would at least make us seriously consider chairs as our next lynch

Ok, well, yeah, we probably would. If we're right today. You should vote for ash.

[2.71828.....]

The nice thing that lynching Ash would do is if he were scum we have basically caught scum!chairs a la Robz being scum in the game he quoted

No...that's not true at all. Chairs could be town, ash could be scum who didn't do the kill, and X could be ash's partner who did do the kill.

Well it would at least make us seriously consider chairs as our next lynch

Ok, well, yeah, we probably would. If we're right today. You should vote for ash.

vote: Ash

I don't want to lynch chairs because of the claim.  I don't think Robz is gaining any traction.  And it is 2 hours before the deadline