yuma, if shraeye had replaced manda in Chocolate Factory town would have won, but it wouldn't have been unfair at all, assuming manda had outed or been prodded 3 times. Replacing with someone not in the speccy seems like the best option to me, as there is no particular reason for their reads to be good. It gets dicey if your only options are from the speccy, but in both cases those would have been good solutions I think.
I feel like you guys feel iffy about the xeiron replacement because you feel like you lost despite playing well. Which is true, but that's not the fault of the replacement, it's because of Lekkit's Hider play and not much else. It sucks, but there's not much to be done about it. I don't think the 2.7/ashersky mod error mattered at all, I'm still surprised Voltaire was giving liopoil town cred for that. It would have been caught at some point by someone, I don't see any reason for scum!liopoil not to do it.
Oh, and I have no idea why you think liopoil's day 3 was scummy. I found it incredibly townie...
I think it would have been incredibly unfair to scum to replace manda.
We are iffy about the xeiron replacement because it decreased our odds of winning, and it seems wrong to me that a town-created issue should be able to put scum in a worse position.
I mean, you have to understand this at least on an intuitive level. We played 3 game days with Lekkit, not with xeiron. Then we come to the end of a fourth day and suddenly we are no longer playing with Lekkit, but we are playing with xeiron, someone who comes in with an unshakable scum read on me. Yes, I was obviously scum to him and everyone in the spec thread, do you want me to just give up? I wa splaying my hardest to "muddy the waters," to confuse and disorient the townies playing the game. Swapping someone else in at the last minute nullified this entire strategy.
I mean I realize I'm coming off bitter here. I'm not meaning to be bitter, I think town played a terrible game, had the benefit of an extremely fortuitous night action, and then played amazing. I'm blown away by the fact that no one, not once, even considered that Lekkit's claim could have been a lie, which was completely the right thing to do, as it turned out, and was just a sort of very good, town reading the situation.
But town
still mislynched at that point, and we only needed one more to win. I think odds were always against us getting it at that point, as we admitted in our scum QT. I think the odds declined even further because of the substitution (I mean, they declined to about 1% because it turned out xeiron's reads were disastrous for scum, but I believe any substitution at that point was going to work against scum by voiding my strategy).
I will say again,
I don't think this is a case of the mod having done "the wrong thing." The game was modded perfectly fine. It's at least semi-consistent with what has happened previously--we've had I believe one equally late-game substitution, in Chocolate Factory, and a Day 3 substitution in Pirates 2. I've never before considered the effect substitutions have on the opposing faction's strategy, because I have never been in a position where the disadvantage was immediately obvious to me.
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Topic: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs(Town wins!) (Read 201526 times)