Okay, time to collect my thoughts on ash.
Wagon analysis! 7 on wagon, Jorbles was town.
We have six others on wagon. How many scum rode the known (to them) mislynch of a PR? 2? Hilariously, if the traitor isn't recruited, they don't know if they are on wagon together or not.
Off-wagon: Walrus, manda, Jimmmmm, faust, Morgrim
At least one scum was off-wagon, I'd say. Mathematically, easier to hit scum off-wagon today, I suppose,from an outsider's perspective, but from my own, up to 2 out of 4 on wagon with me were scum, so that's slightly higher chances there.
Anyone else with some wagon analysis?
This was the post that started everything. I disagreed with this at first because assuming scum will act in a certain way is always dangerous.
Then I remembered ash's plan in a recent scum QT to stick together on or off the D1 wagon:
"Another thing, I think it'd be great if we were all on or off lynch wagon on D1. Wagon analysis invariably turns to were they on or off, and usually falls on a split. If we are all together, it helps survive later in the game."
My point was not that this must be what ash is doing. My point is that if ash is Town, he must know better than to make assumptions how scum will act, given that he deliberately goes against these very assumptions as scum.
Immediately ash showed that he didn't like what I was saying about this:
Are you waiting for me to pull something straight from my Mean Girls performance, too?
Shall I go copy and paste things from LOTR1 and match them up with things you do here?
He seems to be assuming that scum didn't recruit. He said later that this is because people said they probably wouldn't Recruit if scum. I'm now thinking they probably would, but I wouldn't assume it in the way ash seems to be:
You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.
It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.
He makes his first point of saying he thinks I'm Town.
I think this makes you more likely to be town, though, since I don't think scum would make that mistake.
He then starts giving reasons why I could be scum:
My guess is that it is 2 on, 1 off, yes. I could be wrong, and the scum team is you, manda, and Walrus. Actually, that sounds very possible. AND you remember my note about how it would be pretty awesome for a scum team to be able to stay all on or all off wagon. So perhaps you planned it?
manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.
Vote: manda
Prodding your partner to post? Didn't select daychat, I see.
Then reminding me of his Townread on me:
Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.
And in the next post, arguing I could be scum:
manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.
Vote: manda
Prodding your partner to post? Didn't select daychat, I see.
This is also a valid point, in my opinion. A safe vote for someone for something you knew would be rectified, a vote you didn't really mean. Scum wants to do this. They want to put down votes on their partners but be able to take them off without drawing suspicion.
Look, that's what you did.
And then again reminding me of his Townread on me:
Again, for the third time, I most recently said that you seemed MORE LIKELY TOWN to me. You are OMGUSing my slight town read on you? That makes no sense.
And again:
And Jimmmmm, why in the world are you trying to scum your way out of a town read? I really do not understand you.
Does anyone read this as anything other than, "Please stop talking about me. If you don't, I'll have a scumread on you."?
And again:
I mean, you're going back and forth giving reasons why I'm scum and reminding me you have a Townread on me. Which is it?
Slight townread, which you are chiseling away via scummy actions and posting. Like I said, it feels like you are being intentionally obtuse and combative. You are either scum trying to drive me insane or town playing at some odd plan.
Unless I missed it, he didn't mention what my "scummy actions and posting" was, he simply stated that I had them.
So yeah. That's the main parts from Day 2. In summary:
-Assuming scum will do something he has deliberately not done as scum.
-Threatening me to stop what I'm saying about him by reminding me of his Townread on me.
-Going back and forth on me from Townread to scummy.
-Throwing out words like "scummy" and "obtuse" and "combative" without explaining what he means by them.
I also want to look at his Day 1 at some point. I do remember him being much more agreeable than I would have expected from him.