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[Voltaire]

So the general consensus was that scum chose one PR, and that was daychat?  Because if they chose any more than one, I see there being equal likelihood (according to what people chose) of them having JOAT, recruit, or role cop.  In that order with JOAT being most likely, but that it would not be out of the question for them to recruit

I thought we also agreed daychat wasn't likely? I'm just going to go find the summary post:

Voltaire - Daychat (+ X)
Walrus - JOAT
Robz - (Daychat)
Jimmmm - Role Cop (+ Recruit)
ashersky - None or Daychat, JOAT, Recruit
faust – Role Cop (+Daychat)
Jorbles - Daychat, JOAT
manda - Daychat
Teproc - Role Cop, JOAT
morgrim - ?
2.7 - Daychat, Recruit, Role Cop
mcmcsalot - (Daychat + Recruit)

So my memory was very wrong. You are right. 1 power (daychat) is "most likely", probably JOAT or rolecop after that if 2 power or if not daychat. But I'm not really sure how "useful" this is, honestly.

[faust]

I really think Jimm is scum, guys.

Are you breadcrumbing a PR here? Because if you are, and have an incriminating result on Jimmmmm, I'd prefer if you claimed right away. That way, we can safely lynch Jimmmmm, e can protect you for another night, and if he doesn't because he's scum, well, there we have found our second scum and are in quite good shape.

[2.71828.....]

So the general consensus was that scum chose one PR, and that was daychat?  Because if they chose any more than one, I see there being equal likelihood (according to what people chose) of them having JOAT, recruit, or role cop.  In that order with JOAT being most likely, but that it would not be out of the question for them to recruit

I thought we also agreed daychat wasn't likely? I'm just going to go find the summary post:

Voltaire - Daychat (+ X)
Walrus - JOAT
Robz - (Daychat)
Jimmmm - Role Cop (+ Recruit)
ashersky - None or Daychat, JOAT, Recruit
faust – Role Cop (+Daychat)
Jorbles - Daychat, JOAT
manda - Daychat
Teproc - Role Cop, JOAT
morgrim - ?
2.7 - Daychat, Recruit, Role Cop
mcmcsalot - (Daychat + Recruit)

So my memory was very wrong. You are right. 1 power (daychat) is "most likely", probably JOAT or rolecop after that if 2 power or if not daychat. But I'm not really sure how "useful" this is, honestly.

The only reason I brought it up is because Ashersky stated that he thought we were under the assumption that scum did not recruit the traitor.  Yet he put that recruiting would be an option that he chose.  So this seems to be a little contradictory to me.  It might be nothing, but I want a good response from Ash as to why we are "assuming" that there is a traitor out there when I do not see any conclusive evidence that it was a majority opinion.  Unless we took Fausts opinion as 100% true, which I am not willing to do.  (no offense Faust, but you know as much about scum as the rest of us.  ICs don't get special scum knowledge)  I never saw any more discussion about PRs after that, only about fakeclaiming.

[Teproc]

I really think Jimm is scum, guys.

Are you breadcrumbing a PR here? Because if you are, and have an incriminating result on Jimmmmm, I'd prefer if you claimed right away. That way, we can safely lynch Jimmmmm, e can protect you for another night, and if he doesn't because he's scum, well, there we have found our second scum and are in quite good shape.

This is incredibly dangerous if there's a JOAT in the scum team. I want to FoS you for rolefishing, but your're the IC, so...

The ash/Jimmmm fight was so... empty, taht I think it's town v town, if that makes sense. I was siding with Jimmmm in it, but I felt like both were taking it a little too far on purpose, and I didn't really get why ash was upset by it at all. It reminded me of (old reference but it happens to the game manda played in, so there's that) the early stages of the timchen/Galzria fight in MVII (although that one went muuuuuuch farther). So I agree that ash had a pretty scummy day 1 (the plan that was conveniently "stolen" by faust, the voting record), but his day 2 is making him a null read in my book.

And I now think Jimmmmm is probably town. I see the argument about the Morgrim stance, but I'm worried it's scum making it to make us look off-wagon (also because I still think Robz is scum).

[Voltaire]

(also because I still think Robz is scum).

Really? Is this new? Why?

[Teproc]

I was voting for him all day 1 (before I voted for Morgrim), so no, it's not new.. Unlike you, I got a scum read out of the "IC" exchange early on, he then disappeared for a while which convenienly got people to unvote. I did a reread on him here on day 1 and found a few other scummy things he's done, but mostly it's a gut feeling, which is why I'm not really pushing for it at this point (also the fact that I'm apparently alone in this). I might be tunneling a bit on him, but I just can't really shake it for some reason. I'll probably reread him again later today (game day).

[ashersky]

I wanted to wait for Morgrim, but he will be VLA today, and discussion should move on. So here's the (almost) final list:

Voltaire - Daychat (+ X)
Walrus - JOAT
Robz - (Daychat)
Jimmmm - Role Cop (+ Recruit)
ashersky - None or Daychat, JOAT, Recruit
faust – Role Cop (+Daychat)
Jorbles - Daychat, JOAT
manda - Daychat
Teproc - Role Cop, JOAT
morgrim - ?
2.7 - Daychat, Recruit, Role Cop
mcmcsalot - (Daychat + Recruit)

Up to now, everyone ignored one important factor in the PR decision: scum, and only scum, knows how many PRs are out there. So once all PRs are outed (claimed or killed), they can safely fakeclaim one of the remaining roles. This is the reason I think scum wouldn't choose three powers, because it would strip them of this possibility.

So what to choose? Daychat and Recruiting seems a good combo, because having another person to talk to strengthens the Daychat option. But of course this makes the Goon Cop super strong, so it's probably not the best option. A Role Cop is a great addition, I think, because it allows for earlier fake claims and helps taking out the town PRs. And this is it, all I would choose as mafia powers. Maybe, with a newbie scum, I might consider Daychat additionally.

Now to the second part of this – what do the answers reveal about the setup and about who scum is?

Many people seem to think that Daychat is a strong option, so chances are mafia thought that too. Please treat this game as though mafia had Daychat. That means: if there's an exchange between two players, and in the end of it both seem more townie to you, read again. Try to find out if the whole thing could be staged. Voting patterns also need to be analyzed with this in mind.

We can porbably write off the Bulletproof, as it is considered the weakest power by everyone. Recruiting doesn't have a lot of fans, so we probably deal with a Traitor. That makes it harder to scumhunt effectively. But if we're lucky, scum accidentally shoots the Traitor.

Generally, most of us think that one or two powers are probably the best choice. So we're looking at three, maybe four town PRs. At latest after the third claim, any further claims should be handled with a healthy dose of scepticism. In fact, I propose a claiming plan: After we have our first PR outed (which is actually the second, because I am already outed), if anyone wants to claim, they first state the intent to do so. Then everyone else gets a chance to claim PR. We determine a claiming order somehow, and then all PRs fullclaim. This should make it harder for scum to fakeclaim.

Finally, what to make of people's power picks? Get in the head of scum for a moment. It doesn't matter much if you say the truth or not, but can you actually use this to manipulate town? Yes, you can! Make them believe there are lots of PRs out there, so that later a fakeclaim will look less suspicious. Because of that, slight FoS to all who took the 3 powers option.

Here you go.  5th paragraph of analysis.  Probably didn't recruit, dealing with traitor, harder to scum hunt. 

This is the exact post I was thinking of, but on reread looking for it, it is easy to see that the traitor possibility was in people's minds D1.  There's an exchange between 2.7 and Jorbles, for example, around pages 18-20.  It comes up in discussions of Morgrim. 

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Yo guys, I know I've been super absent. I'm scheduling a complete reread and current impressions post for lunchtime.

[Teproc]

As far as the recruit thing goes, I was also under the impression that no recruit was more or less the consensus on day 1.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Still working on this I promise.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

OK, well I hate to do this, but I'm not going to get this done tonight. But I promised something, so let me throw down a vote at least:

Based on my preliminary reading, I am going to vote: mcmc. I felt like his presence was right in the lurk zone (where the scum in Game of Thrones eluded us, for example), along with a couple of questionable votes and unvotes--they seemed somehow safe yet arbitrary in a way that just felt scummy. So that's my #1 pick for now.

I don't mean to single you out mcmc--I hope to expand on this reasoning and provide reads for other players tomorrow. I also still have to reread the second half of the game.

[faust]

I really think Jimm is scum, guys.

Are you breadcrumbing a PR here? Because if you are, and have an incriminating result on Jimmmmm, I'd prefer if you claimed right away. That way, we can safely lynch Jimmmmm, e can protect you for another night, and if he doesn't because he's scum, well, there we have found our second scum and are in quite good shape.

This is incredibly dangerous if there's a JOAT in the scum team. I want to FoS you for rolefishing, but your're the IC, so...

I considered this. I still think a Goon Cop that has found a Goon should claim now. If there is a JOAT, well, that Cop won't be much use for us anyway.

[faust]

Where is everyone? Robz, manda and Walrus definitely need to get more active, but also the rest of you should post more.

[Jimmmmm]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

[faust]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

Fine, I'll endorse that question. Everyone answer please, and I will answer last.

[ashersky]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

Did you want my answer?

[Jimmmmm]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

Did you want my answer?

I don't see why not.

[ashersky]

A, then B.  C and D are invalid.

[faust]

Meanwhile, I'll be doing D1 rereads on all of you, and I need you to answer some questions about your play D1. Starting with Voltaire.

So Voltaire. I reviewed your stance on the Morgrim wagon specifically. Prior to Morgrim claiming, you say this:

Well obviously scum's not going to fake claim now, that would be pretty terrible for them.

we gain nothing from lynching morgrim. He has a 3/10 chance of flipping scum, just like almost everyone else. If we want to random lynch, he goes back in the pool. But we don't want to random lynch.

Directly after Morgrim's claim, you post this:

Well, if Morgrim is scum, he's not a Goon.

Halt. Cease. Desist.

The scum!morgrim narrative requires so many "what ifs". I have not seen anything more compelling than "this is how town!morgrim plays". This is the sort of insanity I expect, with a different flavor, sure, but still. Is this really the best way to deal with him?

I mean I do buy ash's narrative as plausible but 1. it's coming from ash 2. it almost never makes sense to lynch a claimed PR.

Until a little later, you suddenly changed your mind:

I was not thinking things through about Morgrim yesterday. I am quite fine with his lynch. If he flips town, it gives any other PRs out there more information to use in their night actions. And should he flip scum, which I now think is more likely, the same thing except we have one scum down on D1! I agree with what faust said - the wagon/interactions may matter more than his flip, which is darn useful in the first place.

You don't give reasons here why your earlier stances on Morgrim are no longer valid. Why weren't they? And the whole "if he flips town, it gives other PRs more info for their night action" is just not a valid reason to lynch anyone, as I already explained.

From there on, you seem really convinced that Morgrim is scum:

Faust, the plan was a very good attempt at finding an elegant solution to the problem, but I believe we just have to accept the (small) risk that Morgrim is the real Tracker and lynch him.

There's three scum, and a very small lynch pool. Town knows they are town, you're an IC, e in my mind has a very believable claim (and actions), so my lynch pool (ignoring my reads!) is only 9 players, 3 of which are scum. That's before factoring in anything else. I have confidence in lynching Morgrim.

What makes you so sure?

Then, short before the Day ends, you ask this:

faust, what do you want to have happen before a lynch? I'm willing to vote morgrim but that runs the risk he self-hammers. With the exception of manda, I'm fine with the day ending.

But yet you don't wait until any of the things I wanted to have happen happened and just go ahead and hammer. Why did you even ask?

[faust]

Next on my reread list is Walrus.

So first of all let me stress again that I need you to post more.

Walrus strongly opposed both the Jorbles and the Morgrim lynch, which is interesting. Makes me think that if he's scum, he's informed scum (i.e. no Traitor).

Walrus, in your first post, you say this:

HOWEVER, I would also like to recall something that yuma said in Game of Thrones, to the effect that it is natural to want to scumhunt the active posters Day 1, because they're the ones who have actually out out material to analyze. We definitely should have LALL'ed more in that game. So let's get a few more posts down and see who's still L'ing.

You never came back to this. Why not?

Recently, you said ashersky was "townish". This contradicts your D1 stance on him. What changed your mind?

[Teproc]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

As I said earlier, A>C>B>D

[faust]

Now to Robz.

As already stated that I think scum!Robz is unlikely to not try to NK the IC. This is somewhat mitigated by this post:

I would say IC is the strongest town PR there is available in this game.

which may mean that scum!Robz was trying to get me to think just that.

I never quite understood this post:

I think we should base our scumhunting on what's most likely the case here - that e is town. So let's consider the e wagon at peak.

2.7 (5): Walrus, mcmcsalot, Jorbles, Faust, ashersky (L-2)

When I voted for e, it was partly because I thought he acted scummy, but also partly because I was looking for reactions to a wagon with me on it. And what I take from this is: there are likely multiple scum off the e wagon. What I found odd is that after I voted e, no one jumped the wagon for quite some time, until ashersky's vote.

As scum, I would be wary to vote e as this stage: either he is scum (possibly the Traitor), then scum doesn't want to lynch one of their own D1. Or he's town. Well, every vote after mine would get heat D2 for jumping the easy mislynch once e flipped town. So scum would hold back. And given that there was a lot of holding back going on, there was probably scum among them.

I will do a reread of those off-wagon and post the results soon.

Good thinking. Well, Jorbles and mcmc look scummy there.

Can you tell me what you were trying to say here?

Lastly, this post:

I'm ready for a hammer as well.

I've been mentally backing off my insistence on lynching Morgrim a little bit as I remember all those times I said, "He's just crazy, never scum." But, okay, he expects me to say that by now, doesn't it? So ultimately I think there is still just too strong a chance this was scum play... and if it wasn't scum play, this is the not a terrible lynch (we weren't going to get much out of our Tracker, anyway), and I think a decently informational Day 1.

I don't think lynching a town PR D1 is ever "not terrible". This looks like scum!Robz preparing for Morgrim's town flip, justifying his support for the lynch before the flip.

I am also still awaiting an answer to my previous post. And an answer to Jimmmmm's question. Robz stated he was "confident-ish" in his ash reads, so this should be interesting.

One last point: Robz is tunneling Jimmmmm quite hard. I think that's something he would do as scum, he did it in M31.

[mcmcsalot]

OK, well I hate to do this, but I'm not going to get this done tonight. But I promised something, so let me throw down a vote at least:

Based on my preliminary reading, I am going to vote: mcmc. I felt like his presence was right in the lurk zone (where the scum in Game of Thrones eluded us, for example), along with a couple of questionable votes and unvotes--they seemed somehow safe yet arbitrary in a way that just felt scummy. So that's my #1 pick for now.

I don't mean to single you out mcmc--I hope to expand on this reasoning and provide reads for other players tomorrow. I also still have to reread the second half of the game.

Delayed omgus? Not really you gave a reason but yea im lurky it's finals, also I think your post was scummy. Weak reason for a vote on me when I have no other votes on me or anything semi lat into a day. Also reasoning that you can drop if you need to, so I think it's a safe scum vote. This
Could be me seeing it that way since I think your scum.

[mcmcsalot]

I have a question I'd like every player to answer.

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

faust, would you mind endorsing this question? You have a heck of a lot more pull than I do.

B A C D

[Voltaire]

Based on the Jimmmmm vs ash fight (and anything else), in which order would you place the following, from most likely to least likely?

A) Both Town
B) Jimmmmm scum
C) ash scum
D) Both scum

B > A > C > D

Answers to your questions coming up next, faust.