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Author Topic: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (Game over, Ice Mafia win!)  (Read 140870 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #650 on: November 10, 2013, 11:06:10 pm »

But wait! Jimmmmm was also a "newbie" when roles were assigned (NHS), and I don't see more than one newbie being put as mafia.  And Gveoniz has seemed towny to me.

I don't have any comment on your whole post but this.  Mods don't choose who is mafia, they do it randomly.  Of course, odds are more vets will be scum than newbies, but you get my point.
ok.  I wasn't really sure about this, and nothing I read really said too much one way or another (probably just didn't look hard enough).  I didn't place Jimmmmm with a lot of confidence, but to fill out the positions he seemed to fit there.  However, I do not think he would have been on the team to NK ashersky.  This sticks out too much:
Hi all! So I'm a little way towards being caught up, halfway or less.

My first impression is Vote: ashersky.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #651 on: November 10, 2013, 11:08:28 pm »

I'm pretty sure that at least two of Robz, 2.7, and yuma are scum and will lynch almost exclusively from that pool.
So you are narrowing our scumpool down to 3 for this round.  Ambitious.

I understand your putting yuma there (I have done the same).  I also understand putting me there since I have been very vocal about lynching you (even though no one paid any attention-you are still worried).  Robz I don't understand your certainty.  He didn't really do anything that I can see that would warrant a "I know at least two of these three are scum." 
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #652 on: November 10, 2013, 11:11:37 pm »

My life is kind of busy right now, so I'll try to give a better stand on things some point in the next few days.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #653 on: November 10, 2013, 11:18:09 pm »

long day of work followed by an epic soccer game (Go Real Salt Lake) means it is time for bed for me. So you get nothing from me until tomorrow after work. I am sure people have stuff for me to respond to if I am not dead... I guess I had better make sure I am not dead.

Ok. not dead. That is kinda unfortunate (not that I completely expected it to happen). So you'll hear from me tomorrow I am sure
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Gveoniz

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #654 on: November 11, 2013, 06:54:54 am »

You lynched while I was away, a lot quicker than I expected too. Currently catching up.

for the "who suspected NKs" :
yuma voted voltgloss:
And my plan worked perfectly.  Vote: faust

I don't get this... your plan worked perfectly, in baiting someone to find you scummy which then tells nothing about your alignment. I don't find sudgy scummy for this as some people have... but I certainly don't find faust scummy....

Maybe I find the people who are finding faust scummy to be scummy? Who is that? voltgloss, ashersky and sudgy, so actually not that many people. And volt and ash were more on my townread of things leading up to this, ash based more off meta, volt based off activity (which is really a null read for him in all honesty)...

So vote: voltgloss for voting faust for finding something scummy that there should be no reason to find scummy. Plus it means I am no longer voting for the claimed Doc!

It also looks like he is using this as a reason to continue to find him scummy after he had to abandon some reasons before. I dont' know if this in itself is scummy... but is something I noticed in my reread.

And as 2.71828 mentioned, Jimmmmm voted ashersky:
Hi all! So I'm a little way towards being caught up, halfway or less.

My first impression is Vote: ashersky.

They are actually the only votes for both of them, I felt they were quite towny too.

Yuma is moderately scummy now and a lot of you is already discussing.
Jimmmmm just replaced NHS when he posted, it is possible that he mis-read, but explanation from he is required.

But if they were the only one suspected the NKs, why would their partner agree to kill them? Apart from what Robz mentioned, what else is possible? and not that they also have to apply to both of the scums in the same team.
1) He was like razor focused on a scum Day 1 (we will need to check)
2) It's new people who didn't know not to kill him (the problem here is that would definitely single out Gveoniz and 2.7, but 2.7 seems acutely aware that killing ash does not make sense)
3) Scum team just really didn't want to duplicate kill with other scum team

(or perhaps I should looked beyond votes, but that will take more time.)

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)
« Reply #655 on: November 11, 2013, 09:42:43 am »

I'm leaving now. Let the record show that I currently lean towards thinking both sudgy and faust are town (agree with yuma). Make of that what you will.

wait I have something to run by you

I was musing about something.

So we have a confirmed doc and two mafia teams. I was wondering if we can figure out a way to use the scum team's night kills to our advantage.

My thought was this.

What if voltaire gives out a list of say 4-5 players that he is 100% not going to protect during the night. That means that if mafia targets that player they don't have to worry about a doctor protection. yes this means a kill goes through, but it would go through on a player(s) that we are suspicious of as a town and that would have a high chance of being lynched the next day? That way we can kinda use the mafia NK as a semi-town Vig. Or else mafia will have to risk killing a player that might be protected by the doc?
Not in favor of this. I've said it before, but scum will kill the Doctor. That's a player who's guaranteed to not be protected. Sure they could collide the opposite scumteam, but if I were scum I'd be willing to take the risk. And if the players were divided into Town to be protected/Town to not be protected I'd risk shooting into the "To be protected" (well, if the group is large enough) because there is likely a reason (read: strong player) that they'd be potentially protected.

I think we're being a little too optimistic about the scumteams helping us kill themselves.

Weird, weird post. Sounds like you are one of the scum teams trying to give the other team advice.

I am... Hey Ice Mafia shoot Robz or Voltgloss during Night1 ok?

Or... maybe I am trying to find a way to optimize this setup toward town.

Revisited this while reading, but don't quite understand this post, can anyone explain this to me? (note that voltgloss is killed but he is burnt to death by Fire Mafia instead of Ice Mafia)

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #656 on: November 11, 2013, 10:24:21 am »

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

What were they?
I went back to look now, and seems the thing I was recalling was nothing Voltgloss said himself - it was the fact yuma suspected him day 1, which isn't something I'd expect to happen. No idea what to make of that though.

Would scum want to keep the people they suspect alive so they'd have someone they could legitimately build a case against (and possible get town cred for being right), or would they want to kill their suspects to eliminate the other team?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)
« Reply #657 on: November 11, 2013, 10:28:39 am »

I am... Hey Ice Mafia shoot Robz or Voltgloss during Night1 ok?

Or... maybe I am trying to find a way to optimize this setup toward town.

Revisited this while reading, but don't quite understand this post, can anyone explain this to me? (note that voltgloss is killed but he is burnt to death by Fire Mafia instead of Ice Mafia)

...
...
...
...
?
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)
« Reply #658 on: November 11, 2013, 03:07:53 pm »

I'm wanting to at least stay caught up, and you guys are very lurky.  Three posts?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)
« Reply #659 on: November 11, 2013, 03:49:04 pm »

I'm wanting to at least stay caught up, and you guys are very lurky.  Three posts?
I agree.  Everyone has posted at least once except Jimmmm, and
FYI I'm quite sick at the moment so I don't really have the headspace for games. I'll keep you updated.
so that is excusable and we all hope he gets better
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #660 on: November 11, 2013, 03:55:38 pm »

So here are who I think should be our lynch candidates: the (living) faust voters + Jimmmmm.

sudgy, Robz888, Archetype, liopoil, yuma, (Jimmmmm)

Jimmmmm goes back in because he no longer gets a NHS pass.

Robz, you said you think we'll find more scum off of faust's wagon (that'd be Jimmmmm, e, Gveo, and Eevee). Why?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #661 on: November 11, 2013, 03:57:16 pm »

Town, you do have great odds today of lynching scum. 10 living players, 1 doc, yourselves, and 4 scum. 4/8 odds. I'm facing 4/9.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #662 on: November 11, 2013, 04:01:59 pm »

Everyone seems a little perturbed by the conclusion of D1/events of the night.  Here is a short list of strange (in my mind) things that happened.

1)  Faust was quicklynched against the explicit wish of our doctor.
2)  We realize that faust was a mislynch. 
3)  Two players who a) both had a decently strong town feeling get NK'ed, and b) they also combined for 140/484 (about 29%) of the posts on D1.

I have already posted in regard to point 1 to some extent. 
I still am not sure what to make about point 2.
As far as point 3, a) I still am not quite sure what to make of this, need some dialogue leading to b) we need more participation from people like liopoil, Eevee, and Archetype to help keep conversation going so this doesn't turn into a game of lurkville.  We can't just have Voltaire and Robz arguing with each other throughout D2.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #663 on: November 11, 2013, 04:04:03 pm »

e, why do you say that we felt Voltgloss and ash were considered more-or-less town reads on D1? Also, when do you mean that we realized faust was a mislynch?
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #664 on: November 11, 2013, 04:10:06 pm »

e, why do you say that we felt Voltgloss and ash were considered more-or-less town reads on D1? Also, when do you mean that we realized faust was a mislynch?

We realized it was a mislynch when it was revealed he was town, so right after the lynch (not before-I tended towards thinking he was scum as well). 

As far as Volt and Ash, there were posts such as

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

I always ask a lot of questions.  And I think they're important questions to consider.  I'm trying to work through them myself.

I think town!Voltgloss makes more statements of opinion, though.

I think town!Voltgloss asks a lot of questions.
and
I just read this D1 a little closer, and stumbled upon this:

Though, here's a caveat I just thought of:  if scum are trying to shoot opposing scum, the claimed doctor is the last person they want to target early on.  Because he is the LEAST likely to actually be opposing scum.

So I can see a claimed doctor surviving all the up until one scumteam is wiped out.  At that point, though, they are marked for death.

Great point that I missed.  Definitely helps narrow scum's kill pool at night if they are shooting for the other team.  (Hint: they should be.)

Interesting. If ash was scum, he would have certainly thought about the consequences of his plan for scum, and he says here that he hasn't done that. So is there a reason to withhold that thought for scum!ash? I don't think so. This gives me a town read on ash.

to make me think that the general idea was that they were town
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #665 on: November 11, 2013, 04:13:27 pm »

Interesting. I, for one, had a townread on ash and a null read on Voltgloss. I did not get the impression at all that they were consensus town reads. I am trying to figure out if you are scum rewriting history, or town trying to sort through things.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #666 on: November 11, 2013, 04:15:50 pm »

So here are who I think should be our lynch candidates: the (living) faust voters + Jimmmmm.

sudgy, Robz888, Archetype, liopoil, yuma, (Jimmmmm)

Jimmmmm goes back in because he no longer gets a NHS pass.
Not sure I like this. You're pretty much giving e, Gveo, and Eevee free passes just for staying off the wagon. While I think in general someone on wagon is more suspicious than one off wagon, that is not the only thing we have to go on, and it's different for different people. For instance, we absolutely cannot look at the way Yuma got on-wagon in the same way that sudgy got on the wagon.

E, gveoniz and Eevee get townpoints for not being off wagon, but it is by no means enough to give them a pass for today. It's something the scum often do, especially this game because maybe one of those three are scum and thought correctly that faust was town, so they preferred a different lynch. Also, I don't think any of those three were vocally against the lynch, but correct me if I'm wrong.

I think you may be reacting a bit strongly because you are mad at people for lynching faust, when a) you didn't want him lynched, and b) you didn't get a chance to try to stop it.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #667 on: November 11, 2013, 04:18:59 pm »

Scum do not know who is town in this setup any more than we do. My theory holds.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #668 on: November 11, 2013, 04:22:25 pm »

Scum do not know who is town in this setup any more than we do. My theory holds.
right, that's the point. Those three suspected faust less than the rest of us. This may be because they are town with a good read... or scum with a good read. Not indicative of which one it is.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #669 on: November 11, 2013, 04:29:39 pm »

I agree with Voltaire, and not only because I know myself to be town.

Scum wants nothing more than towncred for lynching scum of the opposite team. I think because of that, it's natural they would be more wagon-happy than townies.

Now that I think of it, I'm also developing suspicions of people who joined the lynched convinced by the scum slip. How many times does this need to happen before people learn? Applies especially to more veteran players - we are building a good pile of evidence to the theory that "only town scumslip, because scum is more careful in their posting".

I don't remember who else but Robz was vocal about the wording making no sense for anyone but scum, but scum points for that. I actually feel bad for not supporting yuma earlier for being the voice of reason yesterday, I was fighting to stay caught up all the time and never really developed a strong read on faust. Hindsight is 20/20 of course.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #670 on: November 11, 2013, 04:41:30 pm »

Scum do not know who is town in this setup any more than we do. My theory holds.
right, that's the point. Those three suspected faust less than the rest of us. This may be because they are town with a good read... or scum with a good read. Not indicative of which one it is.
I wouldn't say I was town with a good read (because I am definitely not scum with a good read) but rather that I was trusting in our previous pre-doctor claiming discussion.  The essence of the argument that I got was scum are hunting other scum so the doctor will remain relatively safe until one scum-team is eliminated.

Now, I was hoping that the scum would NK along that reasoning, and thus hoping to lynch someone who was lurking and just didn't quite feel right to me (read: archetype) and let the mafia teams target those people who were touted as "scum" D1 (sudgy, faust, and yuma being the three most talked about candidates from D1)

I clearly mis-read the mafia (whoever they are) because I wasn't getting those scummy feelings about Ash or Volt and we ended up losing them.  So basically I did have a scumish read on faust, but I wanted to let the mafia do the dirty work during the night. 
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #671 on: November 11, 2013, 04:56:37 pm »

Scum do not know who is town in this setup any more than we do. My theory holds.
right, that's the point. Those three suspected faust less than the rest of us. This may be because they are town with a good read... or scum with a good read. Not indicative of which one it is.
I wouldn't say I was town with a good read (because I am definitely not scum with a good read) but rather that I was trusting in our previous pre-doctor claiming discussion.  The essence of the argument that I got was scum are hunting other scum so the doctor will remain relatively safe until one scum-team is eliminated.

Now, I was hoping that the scum would NK along that reasoning, and thus hoping to lynch someone who was lurking and just didn't quite feel right to me (read: archetype) and let the mafia teams target those people who were touted as "scum" D1 (sudgy, faust, and yuma being the three most talked about candidates from D1)

I clearly mis-read the mafia (whoever they are) because I wasn't getting those scummy feelings about Ash or Volt and we ended up losing them.  So basically I did have a scumish read on faust, but I wanted to let the mafia do the dirty work during the night. 
So you aren't town who had a good read. Instead, you are either town-who-wanted-scum-to-kill-faust, or lying-scum-who-had-a-good-read, or scum-who-was-planning-to-kill-faust. The point is it doesn't say much about your alignment.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #672 on: November 11, 2013, 05:15:30 pm »

I agree with Voltaire, and not only because I know myself to be town.

Scum wants nothing more than towncred for lynching scum of the opposite team. I think because of that, it's natural they would be more wagon-happy than townies.

Now that I think of it, I'm also developing suspicions of people who joined the lynched convinced by the scum slip. How many times does this need to happen before people learn? Applies especially to more veteran players - we are building a good pile of evidence to the theory that "only town scumslip, because scum is more careful in their posting".

I don't remember who else but Robz was vocal about the wording making no sense for anyone but scum, but scum points for that. I actually feel bad for not supporting yuma earlier for being the voice of reason yesterday, I was fighting to stay caught up all the time and never really developed a strong read on faust. Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

Voltgloss was the first to point it out, but we know he's dead town. I don't think he took a strong stance on it, though. Robz I know I called out for it. I'll go back and re-read and see if it matches anyone but Robz.

Note to everyone else if I turn up dead: if lio is scum, his partner also voted for faust.*

*not that I find this more or less likely than anything else, but the way you win this game are these if/then statements. Let's not forget them.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #673 on: November 11, 2013, 06:47:04 pm »

Rage vote: yuma. The faust lynch was (almost) the dumbest fucking thing ever. I wanted to get everyone on the table to see who wanted to out themselves as willing to mislynch. Why do you think I was doing ABCD? I am only voting for someone on the faust wagon today.

Speaking of which, can we please get an official final votecount mail-mi? I don't see one.

Well you sure make me want to keep playing this game, but I am just going to ignore your first sentence and move on.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #674 on: November 11, 2013, 06:47:26 pm »

Why the derphammer, yuma?

It wasn't a derphammer.
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