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[ashersky]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

[yuma]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

yay! another Utahan.

[2.71828.....]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

What a way to welcome a new player.  Vote for him right away.  (although at this point your vote for NHS has about as much significance as ashersky's first post voting for yuma--none)

[yuma]

So ash, is having the doc claim right now, this second better than having a doctor wait until say ~5 days from now? I think waiting a bit is better. 1. we can flesh out if this is actually the best plan 2. we can use whatever knowledge we have from interactions players had with said doctor.

It is the same with IC variations. Mod confirmed from the start is the weakest form. Day2 IC are a bit stronger. The strongest are ones in which the player can claim whenever they want to do so. Which I think is what archetype was alluding to when he said doc shouldn't claim day1, but should wait til day2. But that carries the risk of the doc being killed by 1 mafia faction during the night.

We also need to remember than unless we have mafia hit the same player, mafia hitting each other or a doc save we are going to be dealing with 2 NKs a night for at least the first night and probably the second... we might be losing players very quickly leading to a shorter game.

[yuma]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

Why don't you want to vote a 0-poster with me?

[ashersky]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

What a way to welcome a new player.  Vote for him right away.  (although at this point your vote for NHS has about as much significance as ashersky's first post voting for yuma--none)

vote: 2.7

[ashersky]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

Why don't you want to vote a 0-poster with me?

Pick one.  I'll do it.

[ashersky]

(Also, for the new players, my voting pattern up to now has been a textbook example of "RVS.")

[ashersky]

vote: Voltaire

[ashersky]

vote: Voltaire

He hasn't posted yet, right?  Here's our pressure vote candidate.

[mail-mi]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

yay! another Utahan.

Oh how I wish I could edit this to say it correctly... Oh wait... I can.

Vote Count 1.2

Voltaire (1): ashersky
Not Voting (12): 1. Voltaire, Robz888, liopoil, Archetype, sudgy, yuma, Voltgloss, 2.71828....., faust, Gveoniz, Eevee, NHSederholm

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Day 1 ends Monday November 11 at 8ish FT.

[yuma]

vote: Voltaire

vote: voltaire

[2.71828.....]

vote: Voltaire

vote: yuma

I don't know, it took you all of 1 hour, 42 minutes, and 22 seconds to vote for four different people.  Seems like you know what you are doing. 

[yuma]

So, we're in a better spot than normal, given we're hunting a known 4 scum.  As town, we don't care if we hit fire or ice scum, so to me, I'm looking for 4 scummy players on D1.

In future days, if we get scum flips, we can think about who's possible partners, etc. but I really think scumhunting on D1 in this game means finding one of four bad guys, and we don't care about partners.  That's to say, I think seeing interactions between players isn't a way to catch the bad guys.

I would compare this D1 to Mean Girls D1, actually.  You had three scum there who were amazing and brilliant, but didn't even know who their partners were.  I would say scumhunt as you would there, with that knowledge.

another thing to remember is that scum is hunting for scum themselves. So just because someone is actively trying to find scum doesn't make them town. Scum isn't even trying for a mislynch here, they really want to hit mafia... They get some credit for it and eliminate the NK threat at the same time. I have been scum twice in multiball and that is the main goal scum have to find the other players. A mislynch is ok, but hitting other scum is far more superior.

[liopoil]

1)  It reduces the lynch pool.  Each town player is looking for 4/12 bad guys today.  Already nice odds.  Each town player that isn't the doctor gets to instead look at 4/11 players, which is better.  The doctor gains nothing and is still looking at 4/12, but the overall chances have gone up.
2)  If we have multiple doctor claims, we catch scum.
3)  There is WIFOM for the night kill, no matter what scum!liopoil says.  It is impossible for either team to know if the other will shoot the doc.  They cancel each others' kills.  I'd give good odds that the Doctor lives, and possibly saves someone else.
4)  The doctor is a weak PR here.  Doctors are weak anyway, and no difference here.  Let's go worst case: VT lynch today.  We go into N1 with 2 kills, each of which have 10 possible kill targets.  The doctor needs to choose 1/11 to protect.  He has two chances to protect, though.  I don't know how to include the odd possibility of both scum teams and doctor all targeting the same person and resulting in a death.  No matter what, the doctor can only stop one kill anyway.

1) no it doesn't. We can't lynch the doctor even if he doesn't claim. Worst that happens is that someone mistakenly suspects the doctor.
2) sure, but scum get to choose if they claim or not. If claiming is a bad choice for them, they won't do it.
3) oh sure, there's a bit of a guessing game (WIFOM is the wrong term here I think). And yes, good odds the doctor lives. However, they are worse odd than if he doesn't claim. There is absolutely no way that claiming increases the chance that the doctor lives.
4) doctor is weak, yes. I'd totally be willing to increase the chance that the doctor dies slightly if there was something for town to gain by doing that.

...So I think we agree that the doctor claiming only slightly increases the chance that a weak PR dies. Where we disagree is if town has something to gain by the doctor claiming. I don't think they do.

[Voltgloss]

I'm here.  I haven't read other than to confirm that we're not at some ridiculously fast L-1.  We're not?  Good.

Vote: Robz

He's an OK-to-good player as town, but a phenomenal player as scum.  Lacking any further information, that makes him my lynch choice.  Love ya, Robz.

Now to read what people are saying.

[Voltgloss]

Also, no plan.  Except someone needs to draw both NKs so that there are no NKs.  So, I do have a plan.

What town PR is most likely to get NKed?  Maybe they can claim, force wifom, and either not die from two kills or not die because both teams dodge them?

Oh, 8 freaking VTs?  Yeesh.

Doctor can claim, force both teams to decide who shoots him, either both or neither.  Lives forever?

Homework:  Is "ash who hasn't carefully reviewed the setup pregame" generally town!ash, or generally scum!ash?

[Voltaire]

Generally scum!ash, I think? He had plans in Clue (town), HP (town), and something else - a blitz? - as town. This is since my return. Unfortunately I don't think I've seen scum!ash since my return.

Also vote: e. e, I always cast my first vote of the game for someone I haven't played with before. See: RVS.

I think I like the doctor!claim plan, for yuma's reasons and belief in the power of ICs.

Also this is gonna be my only post tonight, you'll get more of me tomorrow morning.

[2.71828.....]

My take on a D1 doctor claim:

I don't have enough experience to say how this has played out in this or that game, but my gut reaction is that this hurts the doctor himself more than helping.  It might help him survive N1, but in a large game it seems to me that N2, 3, or 4 might be more important than N1, and giving that information away early seems to make you more vulnerable in future nights.  True, worst case scenario tells me that only about 77% (10/13) of us will survive N1.  However, if you claim doctor, Ice and fire both decide doctor or other.  This leaves you 50% chance of survival as doctor, only surviving in the case of doctor/doctor or other/other.

[Voltgloss]

I believe a doctor claim right away is awesome sauce, and is officially the D1 ashersky plan.

Why?  Glad you asked...

1)  It reduces the lynch pool.  Each town player is looking for 4/12 bad guys today.  Already nice odds.  Each town player that isn't the doctor gets to instead look at 4/11 players, which is better.  The doctor gains nothing and is still looking at 4/12, but the overall chances have gone up.
2)  If we have multiple doctor claims, we catch scum.
3)  There is WIFOM for the night kill, no matter what scum!liopoil says.  It is impossible for either team to know if the other will shoot the doc.  They cancel each others' kills.  I'd give good odds that the Doctor lives, and possibly saves someone else.
4)  The doctor is a weak PR here.  Doctors are weak anyway, and no difference here.  Let's go worst case: VT lynch today.  We go into N1 with 2 kills, each of which have 10 possible kill targets.  The doctor needs to choose 1/11 to protect.  He has two chances to protect, though.  I don't know how to include the odd possibility of both scum teams and doctor all targeting the same person and resulting in a death.  No matter what, the doctor can only stop one kill anyway.

So, I think the doctor claiming works well.

Hmm.

1)  If the Doctor is run up to L-1, he will claim.  He won't get lynched.  And we have the benefit of his almost-wagon to help us decide where the lynch SHOULD fall.

2)  Yes.  But that's not going to happen Day 1.  Scum won't counterclaim Doctor unless they can win the game by doing so.  I.e., in the late game where, if town mislynches, they lose.  Otherwise, they're just trading 1 scumplayer for the Doctor - and in a game where there are two small scumteams (like here), that's a losing proposition for scum.

3)  I agree with this point.  ash, do you think the Doctor has a better chance of living through the night if he claims?  Note, however, that this WIFOM falls apart mid-game once one scumteam is eradicated; the Doctor will die immediately after that happens. 

4)  Unless I am misreading the rules, the doctor's protection does NOT transmute a mafia crosskill into a death.  I.e., if the doctor and both mafia teams all target the same player, that player does NOT die at night.  Separate point: the doctor is more useful later in the game when he has a higher chance of successfully blocking a kill (because there are fewer targets for him to choose from).

So I am not convinced that the best plan is for the doctor to claim right away.

[Voltgloss]

Though, here's a caveat I just thought of:  if scum are trying to shoot opposing scum, the claimed doctor is the last person they want to target early on.  Because he is the LEAST likely to actually be opposing scum.

So I can see a claimed doctor surviving all the up until one scumteam is wiped out.  At that point, though, they are marked for death.

[Voltgloss]

(Also, for the new players, my voting pattern up to now has been a textbook example of "RVS.")

ash, why did you post this?

[ashersky]

(Also, for the new players, my voting pattern up to now has been a textbook example of "RVS.")

ash, why did you post this?

Because of these two posts, one of which was before my explanation, and one which was after:

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

Okay.  vote: NHS

What a way to welcome a new player.  Vote for him right away.  (although at this point your vote for NHS has about as much significance as ashersky's first post voting for yuma--none)

vote: Voltaire

vote: yuma

I don't know, it took you all of 1 hour, 42 minutes, and 22 seconds to vote for four different people.  Seems like you know what you are doing.

[ashersky]

Though, here's a caveat I just thought of:  if scum are trying to shoot opposing scum, the claimed doctor is the last person they want to target early on.  Because he is the LEAST likely to actually be opposing scum.

So I can see a claimed doctor surviving all the up until one scumteam is wiped out.  At that point, though, they are marked for death.

Great point that I missed.  Definitely helps narrow scum's kill pool at night if they are shooting for the other team.  (Hint: they should be.)

[ashersky]

Hey all! I hail from the Rocky Mountains - Utah, to be exact. I have little to no mafia experience, so go easy on me.

yay! another Utahan.

Oh how I wish I could edit this to say it correctly... Oh wait... I can.

It's not Utahese?