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[Robz888]

If we knew someone was a serial killer, I think we for sure would want to lynch him. We want the kills that happen to be controlled by town.

Robz, to be it's problematic that you decided that Voltaire (and to an extent myself) is scum, and are now using all the additional evidence to support that. Like, you are coming from the assumption he is scum, and when you deduce he likely isn't mafia, you just decide "well then he is a SK" instead of starting to question the original scum read. And the same with me, originally you suspected me of being Voltaire's scumbuddy, now you've abandoned thinking Voltaire is mafia, but still think I'm scum (even though the original suspicion was only by extension and that connection doesn't exist).

The thing is that the additional evidence supports you and Voltaire being scum more than the initial evidence. Eevee, if you had not claimed Survivor, I would not be looking at you as seriously. But I find that to be a really suspicious, unbelievable claim. I no longer have much evidence that you are aligned with Voltaire, so I have set that aside. I have really solid reasons to think Voltaire is a scum who killed shraeye though (and thus not mafia). Again, this read is based on three separate comments that Voltaire has made. I'm truly surprised no one else thinks it's as obvious s I do.

[EFHW]

If we knew someone was a serial killer, I think we for sure would want to lynch him. We want the kills that happen to be controlled by town.

Robz, to be it's problematic that you decided that Voltaire (and to an extent myself) is scum, and are now using all the additional evidence to support that. Like, you are coming from the assumption he is scum, and when you deduce he likely isn't mafia, you just decide "well then he is a SK" instead of starting to question the original scum read. And the same with me, originally you suspected me of being Voltaire's scumbuddy, now you've abandoned thinking Voltaire is mafia, but still think I'm scum (even though the original suspicion was only by extension and that connection doesn't exist).

I think Eevee does have a point.  That is what happened in Pirates. 

PPE: Robz can you remind us of the three posts, or point us to where you talk about them?

[Robz888]

Everyone else is just a wash, that's the problem for me. Chairs, Walrus, et al have made claims that tell us nothing about other people or about them. I mean they are kind of believable claims, so I'm not in a hurry to lynch these people. People think Dsell is suspicious, I don't understand why. EFHW wasn't scummy to me but had an almost slip, okay. Ahoppy seems to have a weird a connection to Voltaire--could be a scumbuddy or Sk junior, but eh, that relies on the Voltaire thing being right. TwisterArcher seems a lot quieter than usual, probably one of my higher non-Eevee non-Voltaire scumreads but meh, it's not really based on anything solid. Lio fell off my radar since becoming Jorbles, I don't even remember if he's claimed something. Mail-mi is mail-mi. Archetpye is Archetype. Voltgloss is town. Galz and bocah are probably town. Who else is there? I'm forgetting some people.

[Eevee]

Since everyone keeps repeating it: What is the meter you are using that determines me as a less useful player this far?

Well, unfortunately you not contributing at the end of Day 1 was the big thing. I know that's just one thing, but it was very, very major. Most people showed up. Some couldn't stay until the very end, but at least made comments like, "I have to go, last chance for me to move my vote!"

Really there are just a few people who weren't there, and you are one of them. Shraeye is another, and he is dead guilty scum.

Additionally, you just didn't say very much of consequence until recently, I think, when you really started taking heat.

It's very frustrating that having an IRL reason for not being there for the deadline is a basis for your wrong read. Like, okay, first of all, the deadline was around 4am in my time, I think it's unreasonable to expect me to be there. This time I was awake, I think I was on until DL-2 hours or so (and planning to stay up). What happened was a good friend called me crying and majorly upset. I obviously didn't know what it was about when answering the phone, and wound up comforting her so long that when I got back to my computer I had just missed the deadline (as you can see from my posting activity).

I think I've been reasonably active all game, and offering my thoughts on everything. Obviously especially so lately, but again, an unclaimed survivor doesn't really want to take the forefront, getting nightkilled would be an instant loss. Now I think I've actually given more opinions than most, having commented at least something on every single player. I started being more helpful after I claimed, not after I started taking heat.

PPPPPEEEE

[Robz888]

If we knew someone was a serial killer, I think we for sure would want to lynch him. We want the kills that happen to be controlled by town.

Robz, to be it's problematic that you decided that Voltaire (and to an extent myself) is scum, and are now using all the additional evidence to support that. Like, you are coming from the assumption he is scum, and when you deduce he likely isn't mafia, you just decide "well then he is a SK" instead of starting to question the original scum read. And the same with me, originally you suspected me of being Voltaire's scumbuddy, now you've abandoned thinking Voltaire is mafia, but still think I'm scum (even though the original suspicion was only by extension and that connection doesn't exist).

I think Eevee does have a point.  That is what happened in Pirates. 

PPE: Robz can you remind us of the three posts, or point us to where you talk about them?

I have laid at this case so many times that I actually feel it's a tad unfair to Voltaire. I've generated 20,000 words on him being scum when I really just have three sentences. But okay, I'll dig them up again.

[Eevee]

But Eevee:  Why did you claim?

I figured it would help me win more often. It really is the correct play for everyone to leave me alive, even if I do my best to help town any way (that doesn't include sacrificing myself) I can.

But how is it any different from claiming VT, then, in terms of us wanting to keep you around?

Well, for a VT it's a good thing if you get shot at night - it means someone more valuable didn't. I just lose if I get shot, so obviously I'm forced to avoid that. I know it's anti-town, but you know, it's the only anti-town thing I have to do. I got to play for the wincon I was given, but I plan on doing my best to win with town.

So you think your claim will reduce the chance of being nk'd?  Is that because scum might hope that if it came down to it you would still choose them?  You increase your chance of being nk'd by saying you are with us (though decrease your chance of being lynched).  You weren't close to being lynched at all, so you must think the mafia/SK if any would make you a low kill priority as a survivor.

Yes, I absolutely think that. I have no powers that could hurt them, every single player would be a better kill than me. Also having me alive is better for scum compared to a townie, in a 2-2-1 situation they could fullclaim and force me to vote with them.

[EFHW]

Robz - just a pointer or two would be fine.

[Eevee]

Also, have you often been an N1 nk?  I can't think of a time off-hand.

I think I've been night killed more than anyone else according to yuma's rankings, but, well, I've also played more games than almost anyone. Being the night kill out of a 20 player pool after not seeming super towny or hinting at any power roles didn't feel like a huge concern though.

[EFHW]

But Eevee:  Why did you claim?

I figured it would help me win more often. It really is the correct play for everyone to leave me alive, even if I do my best to help town any way (that doesn't include sacrificing myself) I can.

But how is it any different from claiming VT, then, in terms of us wanting to keep you around?

Well, for a VT it's a good thing if you get shot at night - it means someone more valuable didn't. I just lose if I get shot, so obviously I'm forced to avoid that. I know it's anti-town, but you know, it's the only anti-town thing I have to do. I got to play for the wincon I was given, but I plan on doing my best to win with town.

So you think your claim will reduce the chance of being nk'd?  Is that because scum might hope that if it came down to it you would still choose them?  You increase your chance of being nk'd by saying you are with us (though decrease your chance of being lynched).  You weren't close to being lynched at all, so you must think the mafia/SK if any would make you a low kill priority as a survivor.

Yes, I absolutely think that. I have no powers that could hurt them, every single player would be a better kill than me. Also having me alive is better for scum compared to a townie, in a 2-2-1 situation they could fullclaim and force me to vote with them.

OK, I am leaning towards believing you.

[Eevee]

If we knew someone was a serial killer, I think we for sure would want to lynch him. We want the kills that happen to be controlled by town.

Robz, to be it's problematic that you decided that Voltaire (and to an extent myself) is scum, and are now using all the additional evidence to support that. Like, you are coming from the assumption he is scum, and when you deduce he likely isn't mafia, you just decide "well then he is a SK" instead of starting to question the original scum read. And the same with me, originally you suspected me of being Voltaire's scumbuddy, now you've abandoned thinking Voltaire is mafia, but still think I'm scum (even though the original suspicion was only by extension and that connection doesn't exist).

The thing is that the additional evidence supports you and Voltaire being scum more than the initial evidence. Eevee, if you had not claimed Survivor, I would not be looking at you as seriously. But I find that to be a really suspicious, unbelievable claim. I no longer have much evidence that you are aligned with Voltaire, so I have set that aside. I have really solid reasons to think Voltaire is a scum who killed shraeye though (and thus not mafia). Again, this read is based on three separate comments that Voltaire has made. I'm truly surprised no one else thinks it's as obvious s I do.

I'm truly surprised you think you can pick the serial killer (we may or may not have!) from a 20 person pool day 2. To me, there definitely is some merit to your case. If we were playing "guess who the SK is", my guess would be Voltaire. We are not, however. Like Voltgloss said, we have evidence of there being a mafia team and the luxury of having a mafia flip already. I think we should aim to kill someone from shraeye's team. We know it exists, and we have like 4-5 targets there, instead of the single serial killer that may not even exist.

[EFHW]

TA - Why have you been so quiet?

[Eevee]

If we knew someone was a serial killer, I think we for sure would want to lynch him. We want the kills that happen to be controlled by town.

Robz, to be it's problematic that you decided that Voltaire (and to an extent myself) is scum, and are now using all the additional evidence to support that. Like, you are coming from the assumption he is scum, and when you deduce he likely isn't mafia, you just decide "well then he is a SK" instead of starting to question the original scum read. And the same with me, originally you suspected me of being Voltaire's scumbuddy, now you've abandoned thinking Voltaire is mafia, but still think I'm scum (even though the original suspicion was only by extension and that connection doesn't exist).

The thing is that the additional evidence supports you and Voltaire being scum more than the initial evidence. Eevee, if you had not claimed Survivor, I would not be looking at you as seriously. But I find that to be a really suspicious, unbelievable claim. I no longer have much evidence that you are aligned with Voltaire, so I have set that aside. I have really solid reasons to think Voltaire is a scum who killed shraeye though (and thus not mafia). Again, this read is based on three separate comments that Voltaire has made. I'm truly surprised no one else thinks it's as obvious s I do.

I'm surprised that me claiming survivor is why you suspect me so much. It doesn't seem logical to me! I (now) totally understand your point about how it's a good claim for mafia, yes. I'm not claiming to be obvtown by any means. But, you know, bayesian probability, if I drew survivor, wouldn't this be how I'd play it? My day 1 play matches it pretty well, and if I was mafia, I'd have 20 other fake claims I could think of, 20 other times I could think of making them.. sure, I could have picked this claim at this point, but.. is an unpressured "I'm not town"-claim really what you'd expect me to make as scum? I understand having concerns about me, but it's not like those can't be addressed later on as well. I make a pretty good target for town roleblockers or trackers if we have some, and my playstyle is such that I create interactions all the time. I'm convinced the suspects I've listed, Ahoppy, mail-mi, Archetype, sudgy and Dsell are all vastly preferable lynches for town.

[EFHW]

I still haven't said anything about the Galz-Robz neighbors thing.  I believe Galz is town, because I have to or I will go crazy, so I believe they are neighbors.  Right now I'm going to believe both of them.  Robz you left out sudgy and faust, maybe others idk. 

[Robz888]

The evidence against Voltaire, based on his own statements, given here for the final time, because I'm sick of saying it.

Here is where he has his moment of truth driven by his frustration toward me:

Voltgloss, nay. I will not move to EFHW, given my re-read of her and VOltaire's support of it.

Seriously dude, what if there's two scum teams? Stop tunneling me. I think she's scum. Even if you think I'm scum that doesn't mean you shouldn't vote for her.

Day 2 begins, and he immediately starts gloating about how sure he was that shraeye was scum. Also some town cheerleading that seems fake and premature:

Hey, I'm always right about shraeye! (because of confirmation bias, shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh) so that's cool. Unfortunately I was also right about mcmc. But that's fine.

Is Galz an IC now? Unless someone else claims Enabler, that's how I see it.

I'll need to re-read with our flips now. I actually feel really freaking good about town's chances right now.

Oh and also, whats this "I was right about shraeye!" nonsense?

Directed at Voltaire^

Wasn't I the first to be suspicious of him? And then I pointed out he scumlurked his way out of suspicion? And Galz said I was changing the subject? It feels nice to be right. Not like I was 100% sure obviously.

I agree TA feels off. Disappointed we're moving even closer to full flavor claiming again.

Here's where he assumes a 5-man scum team, something you can really only assume if you are yourself the Serial Killer. I agree, by the way, that a 5-man scum team is a fine guess even to make even from a non-Serial Killer, by the way. So this would not be an incriminating statement in and of itself. However it fits the other things.

I'm sorry, what case? All I see is me being PoE'd by Galz. Did I miss a case being made on me?

Note that I am also POEing you. That's the case on you.

I don't want to lynch you today because shraeye came after you. Could have been an attempt to give both of you cred. But in a 5-man scum team (my assumption until something proves otherwise), not everyone on the team will have bussed everyone.

These statements come amidst a general strategy of relentlessly sheeping the IC and being pro-active and pro-town. This is, I think, a good strategy for the Serial Killer--always stay on the IC's good side, and do legitimate scum hunting. And Voltaire is a good player, he can do these things well and appear townie.

And again, we know that one of these three things are true:

1. There is a non-mafia scum faction
2. There is a Vig who shot on Night 1
3. Something weird and unpredictable killed shraeye, like a latent ability like bocaj claims to have

Option 3 is of course possible, but should probably just be discounted, because we already know of someone who does this, and that person admitted it publicly, and shraeye probably wouldn't have targeted him then.

So, Option 2 or Option 1. For Option 2 to have happened, someone ignored my oft-repeated insistence never to shoot night 1 as Vig. I wouldn't be surprised if someone did that but I would be surprised if Voltaire did that, because he's a fairly competent player. And I think Voltaire very likely to have killed shraeye for the reasons he himself pointed out.

Therefore, Option 1 seems exceedingly likely.

It's not ironclad. It's pretty strong though, I'm surprised it's getting like zero support.

[sudgy]

Just so you guys know, I've been doing stuff, see five new pages, and manage to read two or so.  I WILL try to catch up, and I still have a .txt file in my computer of my big post so far.

[Eevee]

It's not ironclad. It's pretty strong though, I'm surprised it's getting like zero support.

It's because we want to hunt for mafia today! As I said, your theory makes sense, but lynching someone who actually seems very unlikely to be mafia at this stage is not appealing at all. It's a good theory as far as day 2 SK theories in huge games go, and we should keep it in mind, try to see how the situation develops. Lynching Voltaire is not the pro-town reaction to it though. It's nowhere near that good.

[Robz888]

It's not ironclad. It's pretty strong though, I'm surprised it's getting like zero support.

It's because we want to hunt for mafia today! As I said, your theory makes sense, but lynching someone who actually seems very unlikely to be mafia at this stage is not appealing at all. It's a good theory as far as day 2 SK theories in huge games go, and we should keep it in mind, try to see how the situation develops. Lynching Voltaire is not the pro-town reaction to it though. It's nowhere near that good.

Okay well, "Yes Voltaire is the SK but we don't want to kill him," is a fundamentally different counter-argument, and that's fine. I disagree with it. I think we want to limit the number of shots being taken at our multiple cops.

[Voltaire]

The evidence against Voltaire, based on his own statements, given here for the final time, because I'm sick of saying it.

And in case anyone needs my defense, given here for the final time, because I don't want to have to make Robz rebut it again. 

1. This "moment of truth" is me, as an incredibly frustrated townie, "certain" (in the under-pressure, deadline is in 30 minutes, it's time to make assumptions way) that of the three possible final wagons, EFHW is the one most likely to be on scum. Robz flat-out refuses to vote for EFHW (my scum choice), partially because I support it. I know "Robz, vote for EFHW!" clearly isn't cutting it. I don't have time to make an elegant case. I try to think of what other what I can move a stubborn townie (if that's what Robz is). This was the idea that came to me, and I don't think it's a bad idea! I think there's a >0% chance there's some third party in this game. As I have been saying virtually all day today though, we only know of one, so let's lynch shraeye's partner. That got rambly.

2. I was actually really happy that shraeye flipped mafia, because I thought it should semi-clear me. I really do! It was frustrating to come under the gun so much on D1, and to see someone I thought might be mafia flip mafia D2 made me really happy. I maintain that shraeye's flip should significantly decrease the odds I'm scum of any type. But it does not take them to 0, yes I know that.

3. Robz admits that the whole 5-man argument is a null thing. That's correct. 

4. Robz now admits in his case on me that I've been pro-town. Huzzah! This makes me feel good. And that's another part of my defense here - you can think I am pro-town scum, or that I am pro-town town. I think if you look at the entirety of my actions, it should be clear that I'm pro-town town (or at least that it's the more likely option).

So that's that!

[Eevee]

It's not ironclad. It's pretty strong though, I'm surprised it's getting like zero support.

It's because we want to hunt for mafia today! As I said, your theory makes sense, but lynching someone who actually seems very unlikely to be mafia at this stage is not appealing at all. It's a good theory as far as day 2 SK theories in huge games go, and we should keep it in mind, try to see how the situation develops. Lynching Voltaire is not the pro-town reaction to it though. It's nowhere near that good.

Okay well, "Yes Voltaire is the SK but we don't want to kill him," is a fundamentally different counter-argument, and that's fine. I disagree with it. I think we want to limit the number of shots being taken at our multiple cops.

No, as I already said, if we knew he was the SK, I would absolutely want to lynch him. I think you are grossly overestimating how likely that is, though. I think we'd need to be 50%+ sure. I don't think we can be more than 20-30%, and even that's quite impressive for a day 2 sk theory in a 20 player game.

[Voltaire]

Oh duh, also in my own defense, Walrus's result on me, if you believe him. For me to be mafia, I'd have to have taken the shot last night, and I think it's pretty clear I'd be the "most suspected" member of any alleged team to most people.

[Voltgloss]

I still don't get why chairs didn't choose someone whose show was known to investigate.  There were good candidates from each - liopoil from Modern Family, and others from Community that I won't name at the moment.

EFHW, please name these "good candidates" now.

walrus and sudgy had both revealed their show flavor as Community early on.

Yes, I agree.

Chairs, why didn't you investigate walrus or sudgy?

[Robz888]

I still don't get why chairs didn't choose someone whose show was known to investigate.  There were good candidates from each - liopoil from Modern Family, and others from Community that I won't name at the moment.

EFHW, please name these "good candidates" now.

walrus and sudgy had both revealed their show flavor as Community early on.

Yes, I agree.

Chairs, why didn't you investigate walrus or sudgy?

I missed this. That's terrible, and quite suspicious.

[Voltgloss]

Voltaire, please explain how you knew ahoppy's show.

It was in my PM. Do you want the full-claim?

I want you to make your own decision without knowing whether I approve of it or not.

[Voltaire]

As we wait for the chairs/showclaim situation to sort itself out, I want to move forward with our best plan of action: finding shraeye's partner(s).

So now that we've had quite a bit more D2 so far, how does this look? When we last left my lynch pool, it was

EFHW, Twistedarcher, WalrusMcFishSr, Dsell

I currently believe Walrus's claim. He leaves the pool. I do not want to lynch TA today at this point I do not think, but I agree with all of the comments that he has been "off," more quiet, and not the town leader he usually is. If he is town though, I think he'd be a big loss as a mislynch. Also, he is the one who called out shraeye for only mentioning nkirbit and not Robz when shraeye called out lurkers early on. I think I said this before: TA could be a partner with shraeye, but he is not the most likely. Since we may have as many as 4ish correct choices today, I don't want to chose TA.

I also want to put Robz back into the pool. He is tunneling me and hunting the SK. The only other person he's willing to lynch is the claimed Survivor. Again, I think this is more likely to be the scum stance (at least before myself or Eevee or Voltgloss or whoever it was first said that in-thread). Despite scum reads on Robz, I'd been leaving him out of the pool based on Galz's support of Robz. Now that I know why, I don't see any reason to removed him from the pool on principle. Scum neighborizer would be an amazing PR. Let's also not forget how the scum in Newbie 4 (if that was its number?) fooled all the vets in the speccy.

EFHW, Robz, Dsell

I also think it's worth remembering shraeye declaring chairs/mail-mi as town v town. I'm trying to remember why I removed mail-mi as a possible partner for shraeye, and I think it was only to do with Galz votes. chairs I think voted for mail-mi often enough, and his claims so far work(ish) that I'm still leaning town on him. I think mail-mi and TA make sense as less-likely-but-still-probably shraeye partners.

It's hard to hold all this together with so many moving pieces. EFHW, Robz, Dsell as shraeye's partner is where I land. I know other people made some big posts thinking about this. I want to go re-read them in case they made any points I missed/forgot.

[Robz888]

Voltaire, please explain how you knew ahoppy's show.

It was in my PM. Do you want the full-claim?

I want you to make your own decision without knowing whether I approve of it or not.

This is impossible task for him.