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[Voltaire]

Crazy lunch.

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

But Robz did have strong yuma suspicion today...but did he have any D2? I need to re-read.

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

This is the big thing too.

And we still don't have shraeye.

[Voltaire]

Okay, woah. I mean, what else do you think could have possibly happened here? The mod provided the scum team fake claims, remember!

I actually think I believe this. Re-reading.

[Robz888]

Okay. Okay, I can talk now.

So, here are my notes I took for myself on who I should block on Night 1:

I'm inclined to default to blocking mail-mi, because, well, I find him scummy (per usual), and he occupies the scummiest place on the wagon, which is something that at least the SK might consider doing, because it makes him less likely to be targeted by mafia.

On the other hand, ash. Who I really felt was suspect for his VT claim. However, could he be a town PR trying to hide under guise of VT? That almost seems possible. Though it totally contradicts his plan to out all the PRs. Perhaps he planned to stay hidden when only two claimed.

Actually, why am I worrying about this. Umbrage/chairs is Cop, I am RB, and the third is Vig. It's fine to block the vig.

You know what, neither of them are performing kill if mafia. I'm going to block a random townie-seeming person who is probably actually scum because I suck at this game."

And I blocked yuma.

I didn't really take any notes for Night 2. I was going to block Eevee but it seemed like such a stupid block the more I thought about it--scum!Eevee wouldn't lurk so hard. Nkirbit was my scumread most of the day, whatever. I'm so jaded about my own scumhunting that these decisions are made a little bit at random, I fully expect random blocking to work better.

As you can see, a massclaim was on my mind because if there was a vig still alive, and we could trust that person, we might be able to figure some stuff out. But the more I thought about that, the less likely that seemed.

Yuma went forward with the massclaim anyway, sort of at random, and when I came back to the thread and saw it was claiming time... eh, I thought I could lie until all the claims came. No one suspects me very much--I thought I had enough credibility to survive reversing my claim. Especially since it wasn't going to be like a lasting lie.

Of course I knew neither Volt or shraeye were likely to claim RB, since they wouldn't have any reason to think the RB were dead. But I thought there was a chance they forget that and screw up, or do it anyway, or think the other scumteam killed the RB and has decided not to claim it, and are feeling comfortable enough to go down that road. These things were all unlikely, but I thought I might as well.

I completely, completely, completely forgot that the power role flavor claims were publicly available. I wen through the physical effort of trying to find my role PM to remember what my name is--no easy task for me, I have so so so so so so so many PMs.

I am really sorry for the mistake, and of course now it appears like I should have told the truth in the first place. It was a snap decision that I thought might help, and wouldn't hurt. Of course, my flavor claim oversight made it so that it does hurt (because it just looks fishier than it should have), so I do apologize for that.

[Robz888]

So I wasn't suspicious of yuma on Day 2, because I blocked him and there were still two kills. I assumed (wrongly, it turns out) that the Vig probably wouldn't have shot anyone--since shooting is manifestly bad for town.

Now that I know I am wrong, thins makes yuma more suspicious.

Of course it's still possible that scum duplicated the cop kill.

However, okay, this is interesting. This is something I've been thinking about.

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Yuma is pushing back against the notion that both scum shot chairs, in an effort to make mail-mi look scummier.

Let me try to explain this: In Mafia XIX, I was scum (this was multiball). I came under suspicion for killing someone that I didn't actually kill, at one point. This was frustrating. I kept arguing, no I can't be scum, I wouldn't have killed this person. The latter part was true! I hadn't killed that person. Of course I was still scum. But, you know, I really wanted to argue against this case that was not true!

Look at what yuma is doing. He is doing the same thing. He is saying "No no no, an experience scum never would have duplicated the other team's kill!" This is because that experienced scum is yuma, and he didn't duplicate the other team's kill. He killed someone else, and was roleblocked by me. That's the true explanation. Above he's arguing against the explanation that is actually technically wrong, as scum whose nevertheless incriminated by it. I bet.

Admittedly,t hat's a bit of a stretch and totally confusing. Does anyone follow my logic?

[Voltaire]

Yeah, that's not a bad idea.

I think UoS should either full claim, or we possibly should consider actually doing the 3 PRs claim generic PR thing. Which I was against, but didn't think was so bad, and we are almost forced into it here.

Robz brings up the returning-to-3-PR-claims here. I think this is a point in his favor.

I really want to hear from shraeye. His claim could still shake things up.

[mail-mi]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

[Robz888]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

Well, yuma could be the mafia. But you're right, and I hadn't recalled that.

Man this setup is pro-scum.

[yuma]

So I wasn't suspicious of yuma on Day 2, because I blocked him and there were still two kills. I assumed (wrongly, it turns out) that the Vig probably wouldn't have shot anyone--since shooting is manifestly bad for town.

Now that I know I am wrong, thins makes yuma more suspicious.

Of course it's still possible that scum duplicated the cop kill.

However, okay, this is interesting. This is something I've been thinking about.

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Yuma is pushing back against the notion that both scum shot chairs, in an effort to make mail-mi look scummier.

Let me try to explain this: In Mafia XIX, I was scum (this was multiball). I came under suspicion for killing someone that I didn't actually kill, at one point. This was frustrating. I kept arguing, no I can't be scum, I wouldn't have killed this person. The latter part was true! I hadn't killed that person. Of course I was still scum. But, you know, I really wanted to argue against this case that was not true!

Look at what yuma is doing. He is doing the same thing. He is saying "No no no, an experience scum never would have duplicated the other team's kill!" This is because that experienced scum is yuma, and he didn't duplicate the other team's kill. He killed someone else, and was roleblocked by me. That's the true explanation. Above he's arguing against the explanation that is actually technically wrong, as scum whose nevertheless incriminated by it. I bet.

Admittedly,t hat's a bit of a stretch and totally confusing. Does anyone follow my logic?

I kinda get what you are saying. But for starters you aren't looking at the full post that you yourself just quoted. Immediately below the part that you bolded I say that mail-mi saying he killed ashersky actually explains that confusion that we all had before as to why a scum team would kill ashersky, thus believing him. If I am trying to cast suspicion that isn't the way to do it. Of course all of this assumes that you are in fact the roleblocker, something I am leaning toward believing.

As mail-mi pointed out already, this theory falls flat for me being SK.

And if your theory is me being mafia and having performed the nightkill wouldn't I know that I was roleblocked because the night1 kill didn't go through? If so, mass claiming is inherently bad for me. But I am the player that brought it up again out of the blue and pushed it to occur.

Basically I see why you might have started out the day more suspicious of me if you are the roleblocker. And it does explain your "read" on me earlier that I was frustrated with because it lacked any sort of substance. But I think when you actually view the evidence it doesn't really stack up.

[Robz888]

Fair enough.

[mail-mi]

Guys, I just had this thought: is it so out there to think that mafia killed SK eevee or jorbles on N1, then when it didn't work they did it again?

[yuma]

Fair enough.

The nice thing about this though is that if I accept both mail-mi and you as town. That makes my life a lot easier in finding mafia... 4 players left. (voltaire, shraeye, nkirbit, yuma). I doubt both Jorbles and Eevee were scum. Maybe one was scum of some sort, but possibly not. If they both were town then that means all 3 other players aside from me are scum. But likely at least 2 of those 3 are. I think shraeye is the most likely to be town out of them, putting my suspicion on voltaire and nkirbit.

Again this all depends on you being town here. I think you probably are given the circumstances. And maybe I just want it to be true to cast a more optimistic light on this game.

[yuma]

Guys, I just had this thought: is it so out there to think that mafia killed SK eevee or jorbles on N1, then when it didn't work they did it again?

Not so far out there, plausible even. But I wouldn't feel comfortable banking the game on it.

It certainly would be ideal. Especially if we were able to lynch the mafia who killed the SK and get that information.

[shraeye]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

[shraeye]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

But would a scum team really try to kill a claimed VT?

I think not.  ash was likely the vig kill.  I'm believing mail-mi's claim for now.  If he's scum, then I think VigEevee or VigJorbles killed ash night one, and then mail-mi managed to hit the vig night2.  I don't see Eevee taking a night1 shot, and I think Jorbles also is a "vigs shouldn't shoot N1" proponent.  Can anybody verify Eevee/Jorbles' stances on Vigs?

[shraeye]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Well, one scum team could also have been roleblocked.  We wouldn't have necessarily seen a successful roleblocked claimed, because the roleblocker can't have even be sure their roleblock worked.

If scum are going to both target the same player, it's going to be the claimed cop.

Yes I think I do agree with you. Although the SK is less worried about the cop than the mafia. But really I think it boils down to whether or not a scum team would want to kill ashersky. And I think the answer is probably no. So that makes mail-mi's claim more believable in the end. And I think I am going to accept it.

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

[yuma]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

[shraeye]

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

I don't see how closeness to the deadline makes Robz's play riskier.

[shraeye]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

But mafia have 2 people; an investigation lowers mafia's chances of winning, but it completely eliminates the SK.

[yuma]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

But mafia have 2 people; an investigation lowers mafia's chances of winning, but it completely eliminates the SK.

Yes, that is true.

But like I said before ultimately what I think sells me on mail-mi's claim as being true is that scum wouldn't be likely to nk ash, thus it appears that both mafia and SK targeted chairs. (yes there are other alternative theories out there... Mafia targeted SK Jorbles or Eevee, but I think that one is the most likely.)

[nkirbit]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

That's true... I was thinking the SK was 1-shot investigation proof, not 1-shot roleblock proof.  Which actually means it makes sense for the SK and Mafia to both kill chairs.. I was thinking that the SK wouldn't need to until their investigation proof wore off.

[nkirbit]

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

I don't see how closeness to the deadline makes Robz's play riskier.

I do think it's higher cost now.. we have what?  less than 24 hours until the deadline?  And we are talking about whether or not we believe Robz to be town or not.  If Robz is town, that's a little bit late to leave the discussion focused on a town member, especially when we could be in lylo.

[Voltaire]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

[nkirbit]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

I mean, Robz and Mail-Mi are still options, if you don't believe their claims.  I don't think they should be eliminated from consideration.

[Robz888]

I'm between Voltaire and yuma right now.

[Voltaire]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

I mean, Robz and Mail-Mi are still options, if you don't believe their claims.  I don't think they should be eliminated from consideration.

Yes, but I currently believe there claims. That's what I mean by "something compelling," because based on what's out there, I come down on the side of their claims being legit.