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[chairs]

Could somebody who has a moment sort a vote count?

[xeiron]

People still alive:

Eevee / Xeiron / TwistedArcher / chairs / shraeye / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

I know I'm town, right now I strongly suspect shraeye, Xeiron, and TwistedArcher are town, so that leaves me with

Eevee / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

Out of this group, I think one of Eevee or nkirbit is the townie, which means that both Ahoppy and theorel are scum.

Two questions:
1. I have claimed a innocent cop-result on eevee. How come you find Eevee more scummy than me?
2. Can you explain your townread on Twistedarcher? I do not see it, and think he might be the third scum besides Theorel and Ahoppy.

[Twistedarcher]

So if Nkirbit is town, my first thought was that the telephone sender (lets call him Bell, as I seem to recall Alexander Graham Bell invented the phone) was town as well. But after some investigation (asking Eevee) there seems to be difficult to find any townmembers that could possibly be Bell.

Xeiron, I think your analysis is pretty good, but here's my main problem with it.

You think that Bell exists, and if he does, he's scum. But your reason for this isn't that the role itself is scummy -- it's that the role can't be attributed to someone you already think is towny (Eevee, Nkirbit, Chairs, Shraeye), but to someone you find scummy (TA, Ahoppy, Theorel). This isn't proof that Bell (if in the game) has to be a scum role -- it's proof that would simply just confirm your reads.

What reason do you have for Bell being scum? Your initial reaction is that Bell was town, but you don't think that, since there's not someone you feel is towny who can fit in the role. That's saying everything about your existing reads, and nothing about Bell himself.

You are asking a possible Bell to claim into a scumread and possibly a vote. Town shouldn't do that -- they don't want someone to generate a scum read on them for -- and scum shouldn't do that, either! If Bell exists, you haven't given them any incentive to want to claim. Saying, "Hey, someone claim, so I can find you scummy and maybe vote you!" isn't a good way to get people to claim.

[Twistedarcher]

Could somebody who has a moment sort a vote count?

I believe the last official vote count is still good

[Twistedarcher]

Shraeye, you conclude that if Theorel = Scum, then Ahoppy = scum. Do you believe the reasoning goes the other way, as well?

[chairs]

People still alive:

Eevee / Xeiron / TwistedArcher / chairs / shraeye / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

I know I'm town, right now I strongly suspect shraeye, Xeiron, and TwistedArcher are town, so that leaves me with

Eevee / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

Out of this group, I think one of Eevee or nkirbit is the townie, which means that both Ahoppy and theorel are scum.

Two questions:
1. I have claimed a innocent cop-result on eevee. How come you find Eevee more scummy than me?
2. Can you explain your townread on Twistedarcher? I do not see it, and think he might be the third scum besides Theorel and Ahoppy.

To answer 1) With the amount of role madness we have, I'm not opposed to believing it's possible there's a Godfather.

and no, I can't really answer 2.  I'm just not feeling the scum from him.  Let's (for theory's sake) throw him in the list and take eevee out (to assume no godfather role and that eevee is therefore IC) and then my situation doesn't really change much - I think we should lynch Ahoppy or theorel.

As I've confirmed that the last vote count is, in fact, accurate, I'll go ahead and Vote: Ahoppy.

That puts him at L-2.

[AHoppy]

I'm busy right now, but can you invite until I have a chance to catch up and post thoughts in case of doublevoter? I've been skimming to keep up but I need to devote time to this.

[chairs]

I'm busy right now, but can you invite until I have a chance to catch up and post thoughts in case of doublevoter? I've been skimming to keep up but I need to devote time to this.

Fair enough, though it's my thought that you are probably not in danger from a doublevote.

Unvote but intent remains.

[shraeye]

chairs:

(0+) I tagged this post (here) as the first of note from chairs.  I find they way he examines both sides of the no-lynch idea towny, instead of just sticking to an extreme.

(++) Then there came his paper-claim (which was also hinted at in the last post I linked to) and I'm ascribing many townpoints for this.  Now that I know what paper does, I find it hard to believe that scum would start with such an item.

(+) chairs unvotes me (link) when he feels like the case on me got serious, yet stayed undecided with his opinion on me.  This is the towny sort of "undecided state" where he simply says that he hasn't processed it yet, instead of presenting both sides of the case and seeing which people agree with (the scum-style hedging). 

(0) after a longish absence, chairs comes back from Chicago with a set of rereads (link).  This is hard for me to read anything into, none of the opinions seem conspicuous, nor are they groundbreaking/new. He just tends to pick one side or another of existing arguments.

(0-) There are some waffling posts here (link), but contrasted with theorel's, this appears to be more genuine pondering, and less hedging and position-avoiding.

(-)

Chairs, you should really get your vote down.

It's honestly been pretty hard for me to decide, but deadlines wait for no man, and I suppose I should pick one of the three viable lynches, so...

Vote: Eevee

When prompted to put his vote down, chairs picks Eevee out of the three lynches that seemed possible at that time.  The way he does this really does look like one of the scummier "rush" votes as we were aiming to end the day.

Chairs then picks up his activity quite a bit when it comes to day2 stuff.
(+) his method of scumhunting here is good

2) As far as naming teams, I'm getting a lot of benefit from understanding your opinion on why each team would or would not work.  Perhaps not so useful for this game, but long-term I'm learning quite a bit about the current f.ds meta from the responses and it's helping me work towards better opinions.  I don't have any major gut-check in this game saying "this guy is definitely scum" and that's what I rely on, so this is basically how I scumhunt - by throwing something out there and reading the reflections on my statement from others, until somebody says something that clicks in my head.

3) I think that because f.ds meta currently says you should try 1 on, 2 off or 2 on, 1 off, that it's more likely than not that a very well-played scum team was either all-on or all-off.  We've done quite a bit of team theory today over the idea that scum wasn't all on any given wagon, so if I were scum I'd be whole hog on the wagons up until today.

throwing out possible teams and seeing reactions is a useful method to scumhunting.  This feels much better than just enumerating all possible teams, as it gives people a central idea to focus on and react to.  Chairs also brings up the point of a clever scumteam being all-on.  I agree with that position.

(+) posts like this show analysis of interactions between players.  I like the way chairs is clearly thinking about Day3, and not just Day2.

I will say that if we lynched Ahoppy and he flipped scum, it would increase my suspicion of theorel.  And (if I'm on the same page as everybody else) if he flipped town we lose, right?

[shraeye]

nkirbit:

(0-)

It does seem odd that for someone who professes to be correct 100% of the time that claiming is good, you don't seem to want to claim here.

This is the "seems odd" scumtell that Axxle likes to use.  Nkirbit points something out, but doesn't pursue it, or appear to have a scumread on ash because of it in any of his subsequent posts.

(0+) These two posts combined (links here and here) show flexible opinion on nolynch when arguments are made one way or another.  This seems townier than just locking into whatever side seems best regarless of what comes up.

(0+) In this post (link), nkirbit breaks down the reactions to ash/raerae and this looks like a very probing, towny post.  Yet it's hard to tell exactly what nkirbit's views on ash and raerae are.  The first paragraph of analysis shows that he reads them as towny, i think.

(0-) I think this is the first of the “sheep Eevee” posts that I remember from nkirbit; yet on review I can’t really find that many of them. 

Okay this has all the makings of a mislynch!

TA, you found sort of a contradiction in spirit's position. Before diving further to the rabbit hole, do you think it's more likely he just got stubborn with a read and carried away when it got questioned or that he is scum and playing in a very obvious way?

The reason I think this case on spirit is indeed weaksauce is that he has no reason to act like that as mafia. This feels a lot like you got so excited you found something that you aren't seeing what it is you found.

Definitely comfortable sheeping onto this view.  I still don't know exactly why SB has a town read on EFHW, and would like to hear the reason why, and I'm seeing what TA is saying, but I just think SB being town fits my picture better.

He also defended Eevee from ash in this post (link here)

(0-) In this post (link) nkirbit is quick to defuse suspicion on theorel’s calculations coming from xeiron.  I think if we find nkirbit scum, then theorel is more likely to be scum.  Given nkirbit’s style though, I don’t think that theorel flipping scum raises the scumminess of nkirbit

(?) In this post, and the nkirbit's post before this in the thread, he says that he wants to be able to talk aobut B2B Mafia.

I was quite lurky early in this game because I was up against the wall for most of B2B while this game was going on, and the game here had devolved into theory discussion that was mostly uninteresting to me.  Now I'm done with that game, and this game has moved onto case-making, so I'm more active!

And boy I wish I could talk about B2B!

Now that you can talk about this, what did you want to say?

(--) In this post (link) nkirbit waffles on teh AHoppy case; his conclusion is that AHoppy is not hte same scumread that nkiribt had before, but isn't a townread either.  Yet this all came after AHoppy's post in which nkirbit misinterpreted something and later on in the day said it was the reason for his staunch townread on AHoppy.

(0-) In this post (here) his earlier scumread on mail-mi has cooled down, and I'm not sure what new info had occurred to bring him to this conclusion.  Now his preferred background lynch is xeiron.

(0+) Starting sometime after this post

Vote: Xeiron

I do agree that we should lynch someone in the background.  Out of those people, Xeiron is my preferred lynch.

nkirbit starts really going after xeiron.  When I think about this in retrospect it feels a bit like me/Twisted in the Pirates game where we were blindly tunnelling in on eachother and really pushing those lynches.  So I’m not sold that this is scummy tunnelling, but it certainly is strong tunnelling (at teh end of day1, I recall being very suspicois of nkirbit for this).

(0+) After xeiron announces his no-lynch plan, nkirbit is immediately suspicious (this post).  The most succinct description of nkiribt's reasoning comes in this post (link).  This seems like sound reasoning, and is something that has been eating at me for a bit.  He continues to inquire about xeiron's details and says that it has inconsistencies.

(--) In this post (here), nkirbit wants to lynch xeiron, and would lynch AHoppy.  EFHW doesn't show on this list at all, but in this post (link) he questions EFHW on changing her AHoppy read, and in this post (link) he eventually votes EFHW instead of AHoppy.  So nkirbit's reads on AHoppy can change like this, but EFHW's can't?

(-) AHoppy's wagon gets up to 5 people in votecount 1.19 after nkirbit votes for AHoppy.  Immediately AHoppy votes for mail-mi and nkirbit follows his scumread to that wagon.  That's where his vote ends for the day.
Right out of the gates on day2, nkirbit is fighting hard, votes for xeiron and gives reasons.  And nkirbit also says that he has a bad feeling from chairs' hammer (posts here and here).  This is even more suspicious now that I see how his vote on mail-mi was pretty scummy.

[xeiron]

I am comfortable with lynching Ahoppy by now.
Consider this an intenet to vote.
That makes it a potential L-1

[nkirbit]

Shraeye:  The things I had to say were related to my argument with SB, and the points he was making.  I don't think it's worth getting into at this point.

[nkirbit]

I am comfortable with lynching Ahoppy by now.
Consider this an intenet to vote.
That makes it a potential L-1

Unvote.

Much less comfortable with my vote now.

[Twistedarcher]

I am comfortable with lynching Ahoppy by now.
Consider this an intenet to vote.
That makes it a potential L-1

Unvote.

Much less comfortable with my vote now.

Are you that sold on xeiron being scum that you wouldn't consider voting someone he's voting for?

[nkirbit]

I am comfortable with lynching Ahoppy by now.
Consider this an intenet to vote.
That makes it a potential L-1

Unvote.

Much less comfortable with my vote now.

Are you that sold on xeiron being scum that you wouldn't consider voting someone he's voting for?

I wasn't day1, and perhaps I should've been.

Another thing for me to think about is that it's possible that Xeiron is bussing his teammate here because it looks like the lynch is going through anyway.  There's also the chance that Xeiron is town.

I just want time to think about it.  I may go back to it.

[Twistedarcher]

That's a silly question I guess you've made it clear that you are.

But I think that, if ahoppy is scum, you bet that scum are seeing how many people are finding him scummy, and don't want to get caught off wagon when the votes are clearly there (and the votes are there, I think.)

Of course the other side of that coin is that he's town and no one had an interest in protecting him.

[Twistedarcher]

Well I'm glad we are on the same page. :p

[Twistedarcher]

Why has no one said anything about xeirons new theory?

He's clearly working hard, either to help town or to misguide us. Everything he brings up is worth analyzing, and I don't know why people have been ignoring what he's saying.

Even if you disagree how he's played this game he is bringing up excellent points and really digging, and we should try to figure out what he's been saying and if it's genuine or not.

[nkirbit]

Well, I guess I find it a little bit weird that the item that would be most incriminating to Xeiron was sent to the player most suspicious of Xeiron.  That should make me suspicious of the player who sent it, right?

[shraeye]

AHoppy:

(0-) His first 4 posts all fluff, then asks ash for more info regarding his raerea vote; this is possibly the first. (6/24 3.51pm).  raerae gives him flak for this and he explains himself later.

(0+) I think the first post of any real substance from AHoppy is this (6.25 12.43am) asking about no-lynch possibilities.  My notes from before say that he was the first player to bring this up, which gives townpoints.

(-) Votes Eevee for lurking, then shows up discussing item-theory (6/25 9.54am).  Between items and no-lynching, this accounts for his next 7 posts.  Which of course he follows up with “hey, why aren’t we scumhunting more?” (6/25 1.21pm)

(-) Then come 3 posts about items, and a post about lurkers needing to show up (6/25 5.04pm)

(0) He finally catches up with a reread and actual thoughts in this post (6/27 10.44pm).  Really his first suspicion he casts at anyone is xeiron, in this post.  I think that a newbie scum is unlikely to pull the “throw suspicion at partner” before trying the classic “wait for town to look odd, point it out” technique.  So if AHoppy flips scum, then I think this is more townpoints for xeiron.

(-) In a catch-up post on 7/1 10.33pm he looks legitimately behind.  I’ve been there before, and feel for him.  It’s really not fun to slog through all these things.  But his scumread on Eevee here doesn’t look very solid at all, yet he says Eevee is looking pretty scummy.  Eevee’s fight with ashersky seems natural to me, and during any sort of discussion/fight, I am always trying to see if the other person is coming at me with scumfrustration or townfrustration.  I don’t like that AHoppy finds Eevee scummy for ending the argument with a townread on ashersky.  If this was town v. town between Eevee/ash (I think that’s likely) then from scum AHoppy’s perspective, either Eevee is scummy for having the right read on ash, or he can side with Eevee and hunt ash if Eevee has the wrong read on townash.
This post above also calls 6 different people scummy on day1.  That’s half the people, from any one player’s perspective, and it doesn’t look like AHoppy is doing much to differentiate between the reads.  This leaves AHoppy open to jump on whatever one of those 6 take off (or reconsider, if any of those are his partners).

(0-) In his next meaty post (7/2 12.20am) he spots an ash/Eevee team (that’s now 7 people he’s called scummy).

(0+) During day2 he’s unsold on claiming; this gains townpoints in my mind, he starts out against mass claims (7/9 8.14am) but then rethinks and (7/14 1.09pm) says it might have use.  I think scum would be worried about their positions regarding delicate issues like that, and once they picked a position that seemed to go with the majority they would be loath to change it.  Then again, AHoppy returns to no-claims when he hears the arguments against claiming that I made.

[nkirbit]

It’s [redacted]. I’m a mailman, write 1 player nightly. Wrote mail-mi N0. Now, have a [redacted] (NO idea what it’s for). My items a telephone. Sending you 1 tonight. It doesn’t work alone though, you must combine it with something else (no idea what…)

Like, the player doesn't at all indicate that this is evidence against Xeiron, despite me clearly saying before that I would find that to be the case:

If someone had evidence that there was another way to send messages other than pen and paper, it would be a pretty good reason for them to find Xeiron scummy.

So, I think it's pretty clear that I'm going to find Xeiron scummy upon receiving the message.

Now, to think about who would send me the message:

If it's a town player, why are they sending it to me?  If they really think Xeiron is scum, I'm already convinced!  They should be sending that evidence to another town player so we can lynch scum Xeiron!

If it's a scum player, and Xeiron is town, it keeps me driving the mislynch.  This seems to be a pretty good reason to send it.

If it's a scum player, and Xeiron is scum, it seems odd.  It keeps me on the Xeiron lynch, which I may have already been on anyway, but it seems like kind of a waste of a message. 

So yeah, I guess I am suspicious of the player who sent that message (who is still alive, btw.  Not someone who got killed overnight.  Or at the very least, claimed to be someone who is alive.)

[shraeye]

Xeiron:

(0) States townread on spirit, theorel, ash; no explanations. (6/27 11.49am)

(-) Jumps at theorel over calculations (6/27 7.16pm), but then strangely decides that theorel’s answer (which confirmed xeiron’s original suspicions) has satisfied xeiron and now he’s back to townread.  That is a really odd connection.  If xeiron is scum, I would definitely suspect theorel as his partner, considering this and that theorel kept saying he preferred xeiron lynch as we mislynched mail-mi yesterday.

(0) Votes no-lynch and asks for pen/paper.  His ‘plan’ which has produced nothing, and which has never been explained.  Surely you can now explain what was on your mind then?  I assume it’s obsolete given the crazy night1, and seeing what you had planned will help me read you better.  If it’s not obsolete, you can just ignore this, I suppose.

(+) He gives a list of town/scum (7.2 11.22pm) and says that the scumteam is mail-mi, myself, and TA.  He also says that EFHW looks scummy.  He starts the mail-mi wagon when AHoppy was available, as was EFHW.  These are townpoints towards xeiron, as he could have supported the EFHW wagon and likely pushed that through if he was looking for a mislynch. (7/3 2.23pm)

(++) He then claims cop with town-result on Eevee.  He waited very late to come out with this, right as we were pushing up against our soft-deadline.  But he really seemed like he was very reluctant to claim, and it would make sense given his no-lynch position to do this to avoid the one mislynch he knew was a mislynch.

(0-) In this post (link), xeiron still thinks TA/shraeye is scum, even though his other reads were shown to be wrong.

(0-)

I will not claim stuff now outside of a massclaim.

says he won’t claim stuff outside of massclaim, but still exposes the paper stuff later on.  As I said before, exposing this power really hurts our ability to surprise scum.  Now it's factored in to all the wagons that we see.

(+) In this post (link) xeiron gives reasons for a massclaim.  I side with eevee on this that this doesn’t look like something xeiron would go to lengths to do if he were already doing well as scum.

[Twistedarcher]

It’s [redacted]. I’m a mailman, write 1 player nightly. Wrote mail-mi N0. Now, have a [redacted] (NO idea what it’s for). My items a telephone. Sending you 1 tonight. It doesn’t work alone though, you must combine it with something else (no idea what…)

Like, the player doesn't at all indicate that this is evidence against Xeiron, despite me clearly saying before that I would find that to be the case:

If someone had evidence that there was another way to send messages other than pen and paper, it would be a pretty good reason for them to find Xeiron scummy.

So, I think it's pretty clear that I'm going to find Xeiron scummy upon receiving the message.

Now, to think about who would send me the message:

If it's a town player, why are they sending it to me?  If they really think Xeiron is scum, I'm already convinced!  They should be sending that evidence to another town player so we can lynch scum Xeiron!

If it's a scum player, and Xeiron is town, it keeps me driving the mislynch.  This seems to be a pretty good reason to send it.

If it's a scum player, and Xeiron is scum, it seems odd.  It keeps me on the Xeiron lynch, which I may have already been on anyway, but it seems like kind of a waste of a message. 

So yeah, I guess I am suspicious of the player who sent that message (who is still alive, btw.  Not someone who got killed overnight.  Or at the very least, claimed to be someone who is alive.)

I disagreed before, and I disagree now, that I think the existence of a telephone implicates Xeiron.

Xeiron's hypothesis about pen + paper was a fair one -- I know I'd guess that those two = a writing implement before guessing that paper is a doublevote. Xeiron was looking for a writing implement -- without knowledge of any, and with knowledge of paper in the game, the simplest explanation is that pen + paper exist.

Your quote didn't strike me as a particularly memorable one, and it's never something I would have remembered if you hadn't brought it up. To me, the issue of the pen is a non-starter, and I don't think there's really anyone else who thought it was that big of an issue, either?

Do you think it's a possible explanation that the mailman could have simply been sharing the information that they have?

You have very suddenly flipped on this, directly after Xeiron voted Ahoppy. Why would this vote cause you to change your opinion on something that you brought up at the beginning of D2?

[nkirbit]

You're the one who encouraged me to go back and re-read Xeiron's posts.  Are you unhappy that I did so?

[Twistedarcher]

You're the one who encouraged me to go back and re-read Xeiron's posts.  Are you unhappy that I did so?

No, if you are coming around to the idea that Xeiron is probably town, I'm happy, because it's what I believe.

Are you coming around to the idea that Xeiron is probably town, or do you think he's scum still?