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[shraeye]

Vote Count 1.12
{L-2} Robz (5): mail-mi, spiritbears, nkirbit, ashersky, yuma
liopoil (1): mcmcsalot
sudgy (1): liopoil
AHoppy (1): Robz888
mail-mi (2): Eevee, AHoppy, sudgy

Not voting: xeiron

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is 8pm forum time on Friday, May 24th.

[shraeye]

Mods, can we get more frequent vote counts as we near the deadline?  Thanks.

The last vote count was an HOUR ago.  The one before that only 6 hours ago.  I'll make vote counts as necessary, but we're doin' just fine right now.

[nkirbit]

So, we missed the soft deadline.  We're somewhat close, but we've still got a way to go before either lynch goes through.  However, the soft deadline nearly got us a lynch, and its presence certainly moved forward the discussion.

What's our plan at this point?  So we want to attempt to set another soft deadline for this time tomorrow?  I think about 8 out of the 12 of us have made an appearance within the past couple of hours, so it seems to be a workable time.  Or does anyone else have any other ideas?

[AHoppy]

I'll be quite busy tomorrow at this time.  Actually, I don't think I'll be able to post at all tomorrow. 

[nkirbit]

I'll be quite busy tomorrow at this time.  Actually, I don't think I'll be able to post at all tomorrow.

I still don't get why you're willing to vote Mail-Mi, but not Robz.  In a lot of ways, they're similar cases.  They are different people, and that's important.  I get why Eevee isn't voting for Robz.. he's played with him many times, and just feel that this isn't scum!Robz.  And I completely understand that.

But I'm having a little more difficultly figuring out why you share this feeling with Eevee.  You've never played with Robz before.  Neither have I.  I've looked briefly at other games, sure, but you just don't have the same level of investment in those games as you do in a game you're playing.  Why are you choosing to trust Eevee's opinion so much more so than that of say, Yuma, who has also played with Robz many times.

Because I don't have a background playing with these people, I'm trying to mostly look within this game for context, and that's why I'm voting for Robz.  He's simply been the scummiest in this game, to me.  I know I'm not equipped to make some sort of meta-judgement of Robz's scum play across games, and I don't think you are either.  So I don't get why you're trying to.

[Eevee]

That's a very fair point, nkirbit, and also the reason why I've been pointing my pleas of Robz's innosence towards ashersky and yuma and not you and aHoppy.

[liopoil]

gah, sudgy lynch isn't gonna happen. I'd really rather not lynch robz or mail-mi, so I'm not sure what to do...

[AHoppy]

That is a very fair point.  All I know is that robz is much more experienced than mail-mi.  m-m doesn't really even want to play in this game anymore, and if he's town, that's not really good for us, and if he's scum, all the better.  There isn't enough information on anyone to determine if they are scum or town.  Someone needs to by lynched, and I like the mail-mi case best.  I could see the sudgy case, and may even be willing to vote sudgy, but I can also excuse his lack of presence due to being busy.

[nkirbit]

Regarding AHoppy, I have two thoughts.

1.  Had he come online tonight and voted for Robz, the Robz lynch would have likely gone through (or be sitting at L-1 with an intent to hammer).

2. Had he come online and voted for Robz, AHoppy would not have received that much suspicion.  He hasn't been the most active, but most of the times he has come back, he has immediately expressed an opinion and voted for someone.  I don't think voting for Robz would have raised my eyebrows.

Any thoughts on this?

[Eevee]

None really, as if someone doesn't come online, we can't know what they would have done if they did?

[nkirbit]

None really, as if someone doesn't come online, we can't know what they would have done if they did?

He DID come online though, but didn't vote for Robz.

[Eevee]

None really, as if someone doesn't come online, we can't know what they would have done if they did?

He DID come online though, but didn't vote for Robz.

Well, we'd need flips from the lynch alternatives to glean anything from that, but makes it likely he isn't scum if Robz is town and the alternative wagon at the time (mail-mi?) is scum? Cant think of what else.. Some town points from me though, as I strongly believe Robz is town.

I'm leaning more and more town on nkirby as well, really helpful participation around the soft deadline.

[nkirbit]

None really, as if someone doesn't come online, we can't know what they would have done if they did?

He DID come online though, but didn't vote for Robz.

Well, we'd need flips from the lynch alternatives to glean anything from that, but makes it likely he isn't scum if Robz is town and the alternative wagon at the time (mail-mi?) is scum? Cant think of what else.. Some town points from me though, as I strongly believe Robz is town.

I'm leaning more and more town on nkirby as well, really helpful participation around the soft deadline.

What I was getting at is really your first conclusion:  If Robz is lynched, and flips town, we'll get a very strong townread on Ahoppy.  A mail-mi or sudgy flip may tell us something, too, but not as much as a Robz flip.

If Robz is lynched and flips town, it's unfortunate, obviously, but it does come with a strong townread on AHoppy.  That's obviously not a reason to lynch Robz, but if someone is very close between Robz and someone else, it is worth considering.

The unfortunate side to this is that Ahoppy would become a prime target for a NK.  But, we don't know what PRs are in effect (and I'm assuming mafia don't either), so I'm not sure the mafia would risk NKing Ahoppy, since there very well could be a doctor or watcher in play, and this chance would disincentive them from doing so.

[mcmcsalot]

Really guys, robz is town, eevee is right 100% about him. I have heard him talk about ds9 and samurai's in which he was NOT happy with his partners D1 play, also I don't even think he's being crazy scummy, crazy but not scummy. Lastly so he's not helpful at scum hunting D1, very few are, most of the newbie blame it on not being used to bigger games early on, I use the I'm terrible as town excuse, many of us are terrible unhelpful scum hunters d1. Some games were great. Robz just doesn't care to make an excuse because excuses get you lynched(bad for town) being outlandish and creating reaction(good for town) so ugh, don't lynch him.

Next OMG liopoil is scum...

Eevee, if you don't like the robz lynch, join the sudgy one! I think it has a better chance of going through than the mail-mi one. Also, I will hammer robz if it gets to the point where if I don't you will lynch mail-mi instead.

gah, sudgy lynch isn't gonna happen. I'd really rather not lynch robz or mail-mi, so I'm not sure what to do...

So he says I'm his top scum read, say he put robz too high, then votes for robz, says I'm not his top scum read, then votes for sudgy says he will only vote for robz if mail-is the other lynch, now doesn't want to lynch either. All of this as we get closer to deadline. You know what scum likes to do D1 make sure there no good information, you know what he's doing dragging the day on pushing different wagons when one gets close(robz wagon got close he swapped, mail-mi is close he will vote robz to stop it, they are both close he will vote neither) watch him make a case on me as soon as sudgy gets close.

[mcmcsalot]

Mcm--
No one is buying your Lio case. Will you help us and get on either wagon or not?

No I won't, I think robz is town, mail-mi probably because liopoil is smart if liopoil flips scum(I think he will) he wants it to look like he for some reason wouldn't lynch mail-mi if it really came down to it(Tying to a townie)

[liopoil]

mcmc, both of us now think that mail-mi and robz are bad lynches, and are voting all alone. Why am I scummy for it when you are doing the same thing? was it that I changed my mind?

[Eevee]

There was something rubbing me the wrong way about liopoil and now I see it: that level of confidence on mail-mi being town just seems scummy to me, as I really really don't see any base for it. Could be scum "stuck" in a read they had to fake for future wagon analysis reasons?

Maybe too late for that today, but if I don't wake up tomorrow, please remember this!

[Eevee]

mcmc you should definitely help us with your vote though.

[liopoil]

I think mail-mi is town for similar reasons that you think robz is town. This is really just ordinary mail-mi play, which he has been misslynched for before.

is it possible that anyone besides robz or mail-mi mightbe lynched today?

[Eevee]

I think mail-mi is town for similar reasons that you think robz is town. This is really just ordinary mail-mi play, which he has been misslynched for before.

is it possible that anyone besides robz or mail-mi mightbe lynched today?

I would nominate you (as I disagree with that notion), but no, it's starting to be pretty late for that. Sliding into a nolynch would just suck so bad.

[ashersky]

Anyone for an Eevee lynch?  Crazy defense of Robz, odd case on mail-mi, overuse of AtE...

If we're trying to get a lynch through tonight, is that even an option?  I seriously doubt that we could find 6 players to vote for Eevee.

I wasn't really serious, as there's no way we can get an Eevee lynch through.  Actually, when's the last time Eevee was lynched, ever?  I think it ws MXVII (MAII).  That's a long time.

[nkirbit]

No one had really answered this before, so I'll ask it again:

What's the plan now?  Do we want to set another soft deadline for Thursday night?

[Eevee]

No one had really answered this before, so I'll ask it again:

What's the plan now?  Do we want to set another soft deadline for Thursday night?

I think we should work towards a (good) lynch asap. It's pretty clear where everyone stands, and it shouldn't be very hard to find a lynch if everyone moves their vote to their most preferred viable target.

[liopoil]

Robz, we still need your reads.

I'm really close to giving up hope on an alternative lynch and voting for robz, especially since he has been very unhelpful and hasn't given much of anything in the way of reads

[ashersky]

Why am I scummy for crazy defending Robz? Once again I think we area heading to a mislynch, I'm doing my best to not have that happen. Ashersky you really should know this isn't how Robz acts as scum!

Why is "my" case on mail-mi odd? Should I repeat it? How about the 5 other voters, all scummy or just me?

Overuse of AtE? Hmm, I don't know, I'm starting to be pretty emotionally invested in getting people to trust me about Robz.

It's scummy in a few ways.  You know you just ripped liopoil for his confidence that mail-mi is scum?  Yeah, that's you and Robz.  SAME THING.

It's scummy if you know he's town and you're doing this for town!cred as scum.

It's scummy if you derail the viable lynch and we hit deadline without a lynch.

Your case on mail-mi is odd because IT IS THE SAME AS THE CASE ON ROBZ and you are saying the two exact cases have different outcomes, when I'm saying it's just as likely they are both scum as it is that they aren't.  You've turned this into a Morgrim defense: basically, if Morgrim derphammered, he'd just get a "oh well, that's Morgrim!" but others would get grilled.  Now it's Robz being super scummy and you've giving him the "oh well, that's Robz!" instead of looking at it clearly.

You keep saying "man ash you should KNOW that Robz is town because COME ON you've played a million games with him too and should KNOW."  That's an AtE for sure.