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[spiritbears]

Ok. I just can't see mc playing this way as scum. It's just way too risky. I'm going to have a little faith that he will give us better reads on Mai and xerion. And
unvote

[liopoil]

It is indeed difficult, almost imossible, to have good scumreads early day one. I think you refrain making reads because you did not want to atract attention with a bad case. Probably because you are scum.

Oh... You pushed the Sudgy lynch very hard. I must have missed that. Could you please point out those posts?
To me it seems like on solid post with a vote, and then a buch of asking/answering question, general statements and theory talk.

I totally believe that anyone of any alignment would say something about their second choice for a lynch. This point is not about saying scum and town always act differently, they would do the same in a lot of situations.
My point is that your phrase "Anyone of any alignment would say that about their second choice for a lynch" gives me an instant flashback to how I was thinking and arguing as scum. It therfore contribiute to my scumread on you.

"It is indeed difficult, almost imossible, to have good scumreads early day one. I think you refrain making reads because you did not want to atract attention with a bad case. Probably because you are scum."

What? no. Maybe I refrained from saying reads early day 1 because I hadn't read, didn't have reads, and had theory stuff to talk about? you say yourself that it is difficult and almost impossible to have good scumreads early day one. And I DID start contributing reads somewhat early in day one.

"Oh... You pushed the Sudgy lynch very hard. I must have missed that. Could you please point out those posts?"

really? A sampling:

Vote:sudgy. you know who is in a scummy position though? sudgy. he went back and forth between robz and mail-mi trying to see which lynch would go through. although, granted, robz888 was TRYING to get a wagon on himself, so lots of townies probably voted for him. anyway, I was pushing the sudgy lynch before, I'm pushing it now.

Yuma and Nkirbit, come join me!

I don't think robz lynch is going to happen guys. Let's lynch sudgy instead!

I do however prefer a robz lynch over a mail-mi lynch, if it comes to it. I think we have the votes to lynch sudgy.

Ahoppy, xeiron, mcmc, robz, wanna vote? I know mcmc and robz are already voting, but ahoppy isn't getting lynched and mcmc, your vote has been on me for ages and nobody has joined you.

"I totally believe that anyone of any alignment would say something about their second choice for a lynch. This point is not about saying scum and town always act differently, they would do the same in a lot of situations.
My point is that your phrase "Anyone of any alignment would say that about their second choice for a lynch" gives me an instant flashback to how I was thinking and arguing as scum."

you're missing my point. You are essentially saying: "saying that doing something makes sense as town or scum is a valid defense, however, using said arguement is something that makes sense as scum". Contradictory, yes?



Xeiron's case just doesn't make sense. This is why I am voting for him. I can see the reasoning behind mcmc's case, even if I disagree with the reasoning.

[liopoil]

So I see two options
Liopoil is scum, xieron agrees with me(bussing or town doesn't matter), you agree liopoil is scum(incorrectly guessing my alignment)
or
Liopoil is town, Xeiron is scum who sees an opportunity to push a mislynch through, you are scum trying to get two townies lynched because you see the opportunity.

Are you implying that if I'm town Xeiron is probably scum, and that if I'm scum xeiron may or may not be scum? If my being town incriminates xeiron, that should be really solid evidence, not just for me, but for people who aren't convinced I'm scum.

[mcmcsalot]

So I see two options
Liopoil is scum, xieron agrees with me(bussing or town doesn't matter), you agree liopoil is scum(incorrectly guessing my alignment)
or
Liopoil is town, Xeiron is scum who sees an opportunity to push a mislynch through, you are scum trying to get two townies lynched because you see the opportunity.

Are you implying that if I'm town Xeiron is probably scum, and that if I'm scum xeiron may or may not be scum? If my being town incriminates xeiron, that should be really solid evidence, not just for me, but for people who aren't convinced I'm scum.

No way was that what I was saying. He could be town agreeing with me(we could both be wrong) or scum taking advantage of the situation(he could also be bussing) so no it does not say if you are x he is y.

I said what I did about xeiron and ash because xeiron a case came out of nowhere and seemed off, so I find potential for him to be scum taking advantage of the situation. If you did flip town I would find him scummier and if you flipped scum I woul find him townier(to a degree) but that's what almost always happens when someone makes a case on someone else.

Ash is a bit different his playing dumb reads scummy to me as does his opportunistic view of trying to say me and liopoil are scum. I think that does make ash scummy regardless if liopoil's flip. Because I know that scum!ash gets 2 mislynches, or a 1 for 1 bus out of lynching me and liopoil. I now need to reread ash.

[mcmcsalot]

Ok. I just can't see mc playing this way as scum. It's just way too risky. I'm going to have a little faith that he will give us better reads on Mai and xerion. And
unvote

Yeash, ill go back and read mail, what more do you want me to say on Xeiron. I find his case off from what I would expect a townie to do but his case has valid points an has the same stance as me so I ultimately find him more likely to be town.

[mcmcsalot]

Also HEY ROBZ! So what you were wrong in the last game, you actually weren't, you caught galz through a fake claim that looked great. So your not the best at reading newbies. There are some very talented vets here that you have played with for quite some time. Give us your reads on eevee/Yuma/ash at least.

[ashersky]

Ash is a bit different his playing dumb reads scummy to me as does his opportunistic view of trying to say me and liopoil are scum. I think that does make ash scummy regardless if liopoil's flip. Because I know that scum!ash gets 2 mislynches, or a 1 for 1 bus out of lynching me and liopoil. I now need to reread ash.

Misrepresent much?  This is so classic scum!mcmc it's silly.  Mcmc is scum, bank on it.

[yuma]

Alright, finally a bit of free time. I think the easiest way for me to figure out what my thoughts are at this point in the game is to specifically look at the main lynch candidates at this point (mail-mi, mcmc, lio and xeiron)

mail-mi: I have already said that I wonder if as town we had 3 different wagons day1 only on town. Like I said before it is possible, but hopefully we as a collective whole weren't that off track... Eevee went back and tried to discover if mail-mi's wagon was sidetracked in a scummy way... I don't think he found anything super significant.. but still eevee is currently voting for mail-mi. My view of mail-mi has changed a bit with this in mind and with the information that he was scum in Pirates.

PS: As I discovered while rereading more about lio below I noticed that he said he liked the case on lio by xeiron. That raised my eyebrows a bit.

mcmc: It seems people are really divided about mcmc with part of the town reading him as super town because his play style is "too risky for scum" or reading him as definitely scum. I don't think I am in either camp at this point. I do think he has a bit of a tunnel vision--although he has come out of it a bit--although perhaps not tunnel vision that is incorrect. Really, out of everyone on this list I think mcmc is the most null. And probably the one where we will be able to analyze best with further flip information. Because I don't think his case on lio is bad, it isn't perfect, but it actually takes me back to a conversation we had earlier in either this game or the last one where we talked about exaggerating cases. mcmc said that everyone, including him, exaggerates cases (either intentionally or not) as town. I think this may be something that is going on here... but it is also something that I can easily see mcmc trying to replicate as scum and really isn't a "risky" strategy as scum at all...

<totally got interrupted in the middle of rereading mcmc to watch 2 episodes of the new arrested development season. Episodes 6 & 7 are great by the way. I haven't laughed that hard since season 3 of community!>

lio: Like I said above I liked a little of the case on lio presented by mcmc (what I guess I dont' like is the tie in between eevee/spirit/lio... I mean we aren't at that point, and I think mcmc either as town or scum is doing what he admitted to doing in pirates... trying to build a case against all the scum at once and at this point in the game that just isn't feasible. In pirates is was necessary because we were at mylo. Everything with eevee/lio/spirit at this point is just speculation and is actually distracting of the real point in the case that I think has significance...) The point is namely what mcmc says here:

So he says I'm his top scum read, say he put robz too high, then votes for robz, says I'm not his top scum read, then votes for sudgy says he will only vote for robz if mail-is the other lynch, now doesn't want to lynch either. All of this as we get closer to deadline. You know what scum likes to do D1 make sure there no good information, you know what he's doing dragging the day on pushing different wagons when one gets close(robz wagon got close he swapped, mail-mi is close he will vote robz to stop it, they are both close he will vote neither) watch him make a case on me as soon as sudgy gets close.

and knowing that both robz and sudgy are/were town. His behavior is what I imagine scum would be doing toward the end of day. But that is really the whole of the case when you take away the parts about eevee/spiritbears... Aside from that case I don't think the three points xeiron makes are credible at all--note that I find mail-mi weird for agreeing with them... what?...

xeiron: speaking of him... I initially voted for him because of his suggestion to vote for eevee just because eevee was high on the "would have chosen partner" list. I thought and still think it was ridiculous. I don't buy into his explanation for why he did it either... He said

Ok, so I am not serious in wanting to lynch blindly from the total mentions list.

but when he voted for eevee he said:

An eevee lynch looks quite good.

Quite good? Just because he was at the top of the list? You dont' say anything else about him... so that must be your reasoning... And if it is "quite good" how can you say that you aren't serious about it? I think this is scum realizing that he made a mistake and is trying to crowd control and spin it... but not very well... Add in his case on lio that I mentioned above which just isn't very good at all and looks to be an attempt to get on lio early behind the support of mcmc. We do need to remember that xeiron subbed into the game and as such we should at least look at mpg... I don't think there was anything from MPG's play that made her obvious town... there were a handful of slightly scummy things... the jump on spiritbears, not having any even semi-solid reads as we approached the end of day and a handful of other small things... I think it is worth noting that mpg was voted a handful of times day1 by myself, nkiribt, ash and spiritbears... but that a wagon never formed on her... as I said before I don't expect xeiron to be held accountable for these things, but rather that we need to take them into account to get a full picture.

PS: xeiron only has 14 posts all game. I know he subbed in, but 14? Does anyone else think that is pretty low....? As such there isn't a whole lot to analyze from him, but enough that I find him scummy and still prefer to vote here.

So right now out of the four above I would still put xeiron at the top of my list. I think I would follow that up with mail-mi and then lio and mcmc... those last two are about even... But I put lio in front because I think we learn more about mcmc from a lio flip than we learn about lio from a mcmc flip... I actually think I might be leaning toward the other of what ash is proposing in regard to them... that it might be a town v town rather than scum v scum... but I have been fooled by such shenanigans in the past. I was one who totally bought the eevee v insomniac scum/scum fight in the Ozle2 game.

[liopoil]

My eyebrows raised really high when mail-mi agreed with xeiron too. The points he makes are just crazy. Of the four you mention, my ranking for scummy to not scummy is xeiron, mail-mi, mcmc, liopoil, with a good amount of space between each.

In regard to the mcmc-lio thing, I agree that scum v. scum or town v. town make the most sense, and obviously I think it's town v. town. I'll add that it's automatically more likely to be town v. town because there's more town than scum.

[mcmcsalot]

My eyebrows raised really high when mail-mi agreed with xeiron too. The points he makes are just crazy. Of the four you mention, my ranking for scummy to not scummy is xeiron, mail-mi, mcmc, liopoil, with a good amount of space between each.

In regard to the mcmc-lio thing, I agree that scum v. scum or town v. town make the most sense, and obviously I think it's town v. town. I'll add that it's automatically more likely to be town v. town because there's more town than scum.

Scum read confirmed, he knows I'm town and want to be viewed as town when I flip. If he gets lynched first he want me to look like scum.

vote: liopoil

[spiritbears]

I really can't find anything to disagree with your analysis Yuma. I would be ok with either a xerion or Mai lynch for today. (Mc--I don't think the votes are going to be there for your preferred liolynch...at least not today).  So the question for mc, robz, lio etc, can you get on board with either of those two?  And the real question...which is the better lynch for today?  I think xerion (based on yumas case, the weird Lio case and mgp's scummy behavior earlier. Plus I think we get more info from an x flip.

[liopoil]

as I've said before, I prefer xeiron lynch over mail-mi, mail-mi over mcmc, and mcmc over liopoil. But really, I prefer a xeiron lynch.

[liopoil]

I re-read ahoppy, because he's one of two players I haven't read yet, and he has fewer posts

24 posts, in fact. not much.

First off, it's worth note that this is Ahoppy's first game I believe. It also so happens that scum chose their partners this game. he is in the same boat as nkirbit in that they are unlikely choices. However, scum did know a little bit about Ahoppy pre-game. He has played in many non-mafia forum games and has 89 posts in the main forum, you know, the part about dominion? So while I think he is less likely to be chosen than others, he could still very well be chosen because whoever the scum was might have known a little bit about him. compare to nkirbit (who is town) who all that scum knew about him was that he was TwistedArcher's brother.

This is Ahoppy's case on mail-mi early D1. The bulk of the case is that mail-mi's posts are short and could be inflating his post count. I don't really agree, but nevertheless, this is a good post.

Another big post, this one in D2. Doesn't say a whole lot in terms of reads, but makes constructive comments.

the rest of his posts are fairly short, some talking about his availability. Seems like he's actually busy with finals and whatnot, and when he's had time, contributed.

Also, ahoppy, you've been a bit off about things because you don't know our meta's, which is fine. for example: mail-mi's posts are short in every game he's played. eevee buddies people all the time.

So not much to read him off of. No meta, not many posts. I guess I lean town because of the two big posts I quoted.

[spiritbears]

Yes I noticed we all have hop immense towncred for the two big posts. Each of Them coming at a point when he had been called out for lurking/not being helpful. I know he mentioned something about irl stuff getting in his way, which I almost always take to be true.
But....realllllllly. invoklment has been beyond minimal. We are also giving him a ton of "newb room", which I wonder about. The posts he makes show that he understands the game, the lingo, etc at a pretty sophisticated level. Ate we sure this is not someone we know with an alterego screename? 
Howeever even with my concerns, I don't think it makes much sense to lynch ahop today.  There just isn't very much info we would get from it...which we badly need for today. Starting at -4.
 Town may be dsmn near impossible to correct and win.
So I say watch ahop for today anyway....

[xeiron]

Yes I noticed we all have hop immense towncred for the two big posts. Each of Them coming at a point when he had been called out for lurking/not being helpful. I know he mentioned something about irl stuff getting in his way, which I almost always take to be true.
But....realllllllly. invoklment has been beyond minimal. We are also giving him a ton of "newb room", which I wonder about. The posts he makes show that he understands the game, the lingo, etc at a pretty sophisticated level. Ate we sure this is not someone we know with an alterego screename? 
Howeever even with my concerns, I don't think it makes much sense to lynch ahop today.  There just isn't very much info we would get from it...which we badly need for today. Starting at -4.
 Town may be dsmn near impossible to correct and win.
So I say watch ahop for today anyway....

I agree that an Ahoppy-lynch does not make much sense today.
A liopoil lynch do, though.

[Robz888]

I'll try to post some thoughts soon.

[liopoil]

deadline is next saturday at 8. Robz, wanna make us a soft deadline?

[mcmcsalot]

deadline is next saturday at 8. Robz, wanna make us a soft deadline?

I think we can make a soft deadline ourselves. Thursday at 8 pm okay?

[liopoil]

I'm fine with that, but I think robz should make it nevertheless.

[liopoil]

I feel like there's gotta be a scum veteran here. It isn't robz, and I don't think it's mcmc. That leaves me with Yuma, ashersky, and Eevee. I think at least one of those is scum, but I have no clue which.

[yuma]

I feel like there's gotta be a scum veteran here. It isn't robz, and I don't think it's mcmc. That leaves me with Yuma, ashersky, and Eevee. I think at least one of those is scum, but I have no clue which.

Don't forget to include yourself!!! (yes I consider you a veteran!)

But this is something worth considering in this game where a statement like this would be worthless in another game. Obviously I am not going to consider myself, but regardless of what people said about who they woud choose as scum--there is just a lot of WIFOM in those statements--both eevee and ash would make for good partners as scum and likely choices.

I've reread ash previously and found him on the slightly town side. Since then he has been very focused on mcmc, even going so far as calling them out as a pair... I dont' know about that and as I said before mcmc/lio aren't as high on my reads as other players and I lean more that they are town v town or scum v town than scum v scum at this point... but my disagreeing doesn't make ash scum. But what I have noticed is that he isn't arguing as much today as yesterday or in other games in general. He seems to be a bit more calm and calculated? Although he does call out a ridiculous scum slip again on mcmc... and his last post is a bit more on the angry!ash side. So I could see ash here being scum trying to maintain some of his "persona" that we have come to expect from him, but only doing just enough to not make any huge waves and attract attention. I still think he is a bit scummy for being the lone player to support all 3 day1 wagons at the end...

Eevee on the other hand has kinda stayed away from the mcmc/lio argument for whatever reason and has pushed toward mail-mi. I don't mind that push... but given that mail-mi is VLA starting tomorrow? for a week? I hate to say it because I hate it when VLA impacts games and especially when it might prevent us from lynching scum... but hey, this is a game and we have to role with those sort of setbacks... given that mail-mi is VLA he might not be the best lynch candidate for today. Eevee has also been a bit gone today with VLA stuff. There were still a handful of things that I found eevee scummy for day1.

So I guess both are on the scummier side... probably both a bit scummier than say mcmc/lio at this point, but not scummier than where I am voting on xeiron. Guys we have seen.... well at least some of us have seen scum xeiron before. In the sad broken game he was partners with mcmc.

Mcmc is maybe the best person to ask: do you think that his play here is similar to his play there. And spiritbears was able to pinpoint both of them pretty well--aside from being distracted by me--from what you remember sb, do you think xeiron compares in these games? I think he does.

[liopoil]

I'm no vet! I've finished 4 normal games and 1 bastard, that's all.

I helped jorbles mod that game and I think xeiron's play there is similar to his play here. I'll take a look.

[yuma]

and post count time!

1. Yuma - 114
2. Ashersky - 185
3. mail-mi - 53
4. Eevee - 99
5. liopoil - 160
6. Robz888 - 69
8. AHoppy - 28
9. modestguineapig xeiron 25+15=40
10. mcmcsalot - 75
11. spiritbears - 97

Compare to the start of
day 2 post count

[liopoil]

hmmm, I thought mail-mi had more than that. interesting. He usually has more towards the middle of the pack.

[spiritbears]

Yuma-  I think there are some similarities with the unmentionable game. And probably Xerion is our best bet for s lynx today. However I m not sure I had him pegged as well as you did that game. Mc for sure though
Whst about Mai. Do you  consider him a vet??