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[theorel]

Okay, so I thought some more about it.  I'm not so sure about the joth lynch.

I do think he's the most likely VT to be sparky's pratner.  BUT that's not good enough to lynch him.  I thought lynching VT was better when the day started, since it was better yesterday, and a lot of the heuristic arguments still applied.  What I failed to consider was the worst-case scenario.  I thought about that on my way home from work, and it's not pretty.  To clarify, worst-case scenario is that we have a SK.  Now, we're probably not in that scenario, it seems reasonably unlikely given that we have NO unexplained deaths.  HOWEVER, if we're not in that scenario, we're actually in pretty good shape, and we have lots of time, and we should talk about it.  So, I'll keep things concrete and talk about the worst-case scenario assuming we lynch joth, then I'll talk about some generalities, and then we should discuss what we're going to do.  Mostly this involves talking about the SK possibility...is it unlikely? sure.  But it's possible.  It's also BAD for town if we ignore it.  I'll end off with some general notes about why I don't like the joth lynch.

Okay, first: worst-case scenario assuming joth lynch.  joth flips town, and we have a SK.  It doesn't really matter who's who, but for concreteness I'll say Insomniac is SK, and Robz-Cuzz are mafia.
Now, worst-case scenario for town is: Insomniac kills Grujah, Robz kills Insomniac.  And, oh look we just lost. (2v2)
Or maybe we get Robz kills O Insom kills Grujah.  Now it's 2v1v1.  And, I'm not exactly sure what happens if everyone dies...town and SK can nolynch, if mafia kills SK they win, otherwise we all die (which probably shouldn't qualify as a town win).
Then we have Robz kills Grujah, Insom kills Robz.  Now it's 1v2v1, and town still needs to nolynch.  scum wants to kill each other while someone targets town.  It's a weird no-win situation for scum, so they should probably try to avoid it...though they might hit it accidentally.  There is a possible SK-win here if mafia don't kill him, and he does kill them.
Finally Robz kills Insom, Insom kills Robz.  Now it goes to 1v3 and town can win if we don't mislynch.  (50/50 shot at random).

So, a lot here depends on night-kills...I could game-theory optimal choices (like I did in MIV spectator), but a lot depends on if the scum choose accurately.

Second analysis, let's suppose we lynch mafia today (still in the having a SK case).  So, joth is mafia with partner O and Insomniac is SK.  (again for concreteness, all of these are interchangeable with appropriate numbers of PR-claims etc.)
Okay, so we lynch scum, this should be good for us.  Now, SK and mafia know who each other are with 50/50 probability.  But, they can convince town to lynch the other faction, and not convince them to lynch town, so their optimal play is to NK town, specifically the PRs (which are all true in this case).
Suppose they kill 2 town PRs.
then we have 2 town v. 1 mafia, and 1 SK.
town should no-lynch.  mafia/SK try to kill each other and hope the other misses.  Assuming targeting at random that's a 1/3 chance for each side to win.
Note: If they only hit one PR, they can convince town to lynch another PR, and be in the same situation.  Probably town would do it naturally anyways.

Third analysis.  Let's suppose we lynch the SK today.  then going into tonight we have 2 mafia, and 4 town.  mafia kills 1 town, and we go to lylo, with the choice to lynch VT-claims or PR-claims.  KNOWING that it's either 2 PRs or 2 VTs.  I think we could probably figure it out, and stand a decent chance of winning...although there's some chance scum pull it out.

Fourth analysis.  okay, so you're sick of all of the "what if there's a SK" stuff.  So, what if there ISN'T a SK?
Suppose we lynch a townie today.  Then we go into lylo tomorrow, knowing that it's 1 VT and 1 PR.  I think we would stand a decent shot of winning
Suppose we lynch mafia...then if we lynch a VT, we get a 1/3 chance of the right lynch tomorrow.  Note: this means if we lynch scum, the PRs should probably factor in a decent probability of protecting the VT-claims, since mafia would be giving us a 50/50 shot if they shoot another PR-claim.

Okay, so what about joth?
Well, Robz and Cuzz want to lynch him.  Grujah wanted to lynch sparky.  That doesn't seem right to me.  Something's wrong here, and suggests we're looking in the wrong place.  This led me to think about the SK-possibility, and realize that things are actually potentially very dangerous if the SK exists.  Of course defending joth if he flips scum will look really bad...so maybe Cuzz is just hoping to fly under the radar?  I dunno...it seems more likely that Cuzz would push a town-player (or Robz would push a town player) because they know they NEED a mislynch at this point to stand a chance.  Grujah is pushing Robz alongside joth.

tl;dr: What should we do about the SK-possibility?  (I don't think ignoring it completely is a good idea, but it certainly hurts our win-chance to try to lynch a SK if it doesn't exist).  If (and only if) we go after the SK I think we should consider PR targets, otherwise we should stick to VT-claims.  I think joth is a weak target given Robz/Cuzz' willingness to lynch and general anti-sparkyness of Grujah.  NOTE: If you think I'm joth's mafia-partner, then you should consider that you're implicitly accepting the existence of a SK.  If you think there's a SK, you need to consider the above.  (of course, in this scenario you've deluded yourself into thinking I'm scum, so you should work it out yourself to make sure I'm honest)

[Robz888]

Unvote

Have to think some things over.

[Cuzz]

@theorel:

I have a little trouble following some of these large arguments with lots of cases because my eyes glaze over when I get to the parts in which I might be scum. But mostly I have a problem with the structure of your argument. You seem to be describing a hypothetical world in which we know whether or not there is a serial killer, but we don't know important things like who the serial killer is, who are sparky's partners, which PRs are lying if any, etc. So how does this help us make a decision? Isn't good old fashioned scumhunting a better bet?

You claim at the beginning that joth is most likely to be sparky's partner among VT claims. But this does not lead you to think he's a good lynch? The only scenario in which these beliefs are compatible is the one in which the two remaining scum are claimed PRs. Do you really think that's all that likely? If not, let's lynch joth.

And on a slightly unrelated note, are people gonna keep accusing me of flying under the radar no matter what I do?

[Insomniac]

Theorel, you are failing to note that IF there is an SK ALL of the claims are true, OR 2 are false.

[Robz888]

Regarding the Serial Killer, if we have one, I don't think he has strong/ninja shots. Even though strong/ninja shots are probably better for our game than bulletproof, I can still see an SK picking bulletproof. I mean, he didn't know there were going to be two or three protection roles and a tracker, and default choice is the bulletproof.

I just can't believe we have an SK with strong/ninja shots that didn't produce a second scum kill either night.

[Insomniac]

Expanding upon this.

Theorel if there is an SK then you know that EITHER
1) Jo/Insom/O are ALL scum
--or--
2) 2 of Robz/Cuzz/Grujah, and 1 of Jo/Insom/O are scum.

BUT if there ISNT an SK then you know that
1) EXACTLY ONE of Robz/Grujah/Cuzz is lying AND ONE of Jo/Insom/O are lying


So from your point of view you should absolutely want to lynch one of Jo/O and Myself if there is an SK as it is at best a 100% chance of hitting scum (assuming you have a town PM) and at worst 33% chance. Where as lynching a PR gives you a at best 66% chance and at worst a 0% chance.

In the LATTER scenario you have a 33% chance regardless of where you choose to lynch.

THUS assuming you have a town PM as a vanilla townie it is better to lynch one of the vanilla townies that you find scummy.

Now lets have a look at what your suggestion of lynching a PR today suggests.

Giving the SK a 50% chance (which is high based on the lack of outside nightkills) the PR group has a 33% (66/2=33) chance of hitting scum. AND if we are wrong which will happen 67% of the time we lose EITHER a protective role which could shield us from mafia/sk or lynching the tracker which might be able to find scum.

Again giving the SK a 50% chance lynching a VT has a (50+33/2=41.5) 41.5% chance of hitting scum AND doesn't risk screwing us out of our PR's night actions.

FoS: Theorel for not thinking about the math before suggesting lynching a PR. AND for assuming the SK has a probability of 50%+ of being here which based on the evidence presented is strictly not the case.

[Robz888]

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Two PR liars is impossible, because at least 1 Doctor has to be real for the Jailkeeper to exist, and we know the JK exists. So from my perspective this is impossible.

[Robz888]

Okay, so henceforth I consider Grujah completely acquitted. Does everyone understand why I reached that conclusion? Him and Cuzz can't both be lying, and if they are both telling the truth obviously neither of them could be the SK, and if one is lying and the other telling the truth, there is no SK. So Grujah can't be SK. And for reasons I elaborated on earlier, Grujah certainly looks like the least likely person to be sparky's scummate.

[Robz888]

If we really don't think there's a Serial Killer, we have to lynch Cuzz. But there could be a bulletproof SK, I think.

If there IS a SK, then I'm back to it being Insomniac, with Jo and Theorel being mafia.

Gar. Not ready to end the day, obviously.

[Insomniac]

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Two PR liars is impossible, because at least 1 Doctor has to be real for the Jailkeeper to exist, and we know the JK exists. So from my perspective this is impossible.

This ALSO isn't true, If we roll ONE protective role there is a 50/50 chance that its jailkeeper or doctor. Therefore both doctors COULD be lying.

[Insomniac]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

[Robz888]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

Expletive, expletive, expletive. Yeah, you're right. Sorry about that. Ugh. That they are both lying is the most mathematically plausible explanation, I suppose.

[Robz888]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

Expletive, expletive, expletive. Yeah, you're right. Sorry about that. Ugh. That they are both lying is the most mathematically plausible explanation, I suppose.

I mean in terms of odds of how many town PRs, etc. That would also mean yes to the Serial Killer, right? God I have to check aGAIN.

[Robz888]

When we lose this, we can blame ashersky for taking a shot on Night 1, and Eevee for being obvhider to scum.

[Robz888]

When we lose this, we can blame ashersky for taking a shot on Night 1, and Eevee for being obvhider to scum.

Sorry, I'm just proactively abdicating responsibility now.

[Robz888]

There is no SK, because we've had no unexplained deaths, therefore exactly 1 town PR is lying, therefore it must be Cuzz. Vote: Cuzz

Is this really what I'm going with now? I guess it is.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-5

Robz888 (2): Grujah, jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not voting {2}: Insomniac, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

Expanding upon this.

Theorel if there is an SK then you know that EITHER
1) Jo/Insom/O are ALL scum
--or--
2) 2 of Robz/Cuzz/Grujah, and 1 of Jo/Insom/O are scum.

BUT if there ISNT an SK then you know that
1) EXACTLY ONE of Robz/Grujah/Cuzz is lying AND ONE of Jo/Insom/O are lying


So from your point of view you should absolutely want to lynch one of Jo/O and Myself if there is an SK as it is at best a 100% chance of hitting scum (assuming you have a town PM) and at worst 33% chance. Where as lynching a PR gives you a at best 66% chance and at worst a 0% chance.

In the LATTER scenario you have a 33% chance regardless of where you choose to lynch.

THUS assuming you have a town PM as a vanilla townie it is better to lynch one of the vanilla townies that you find scummy.

Now lets have a look at what your suggestion of lynching a PR today suggests.

Giving the SK a 50% chance (which is high based on the lack of outside nightkills) the PR group has a 33% (66/2=33) chance of hitting scum. AND if we are wrong which will happen 67% of the time we lose EITHER a protective role which could shield us from mafia/sk or lynching the tracker which might be able to find scum.

Again giving the SK a 50% chance lynching a VT has a (50+33/2=41.5) 41.5% chance of hitting scum AND doesn't risk screwing us out of our PR's night actions.

FoS: Theorel for not thinking about the math before suggesting lynching a PR. AND for assuming the SK has a probability of 50%+ of being here which based on the evidence presented is strictly not the case.

Obviously I was not clear...
1. I do NOT think there is a 50%+ chance of a SK.  I think there is A chance of a SK, and ignoring it would be bad.
2. I do not think we should necessarily lynch a PR if we decide to hunt a SK.  I think we should consider it.  What I actually meant was: If we're going SK-hunting then we need to consider PRs just as much as VTs.  When I was initially thinking things through, I wasn't sure how much it benefited town to lynch SK vs. mafia.  I'm still not exactly sure, because a lot depends on whether the SK and mafia can determine each other after we lynch mafia.  I HYPOTHESIZE that it's actually worse for town to lynch mafia in this case.  However, it's better to lynch mafia than VT.  So, we might be best going after the most likely SK among the VTs?  All of this is moot if we don't think it's worth it to hunt the SK.  I feel like it's an open question.

Theorel, you are failing to note that IF there is an SK ALL of the claims are true, OR 2 are false.

Read case 1 again (all claims true with SK), now read case2 (2 claims false with SK).  I'm pretty sure I covered both of these cases...you could object to my choices of examples, but I pretty clearly stated that these were examples, and the individuals were interchangeable.

Anyways, the first line of my post is slightly off, it should say: I consider joth to be most likely to be scum ALONE.  But I don't like his partnering options among the PRs.  Additionally, I don't think we should just be sweeping SK-possibilities under the rug.  Is the chance slim? yes.  But that doesn't mean it's not important.

[theorel]

Let me try to state explicitly and succinctly what I mean, since I'm failing at doing so.  This will be a short stand alone post to help people not skim it.

1. If there is a SK, AND it's better to lynch the SK than mafia, THEN we should be looking for SK-tells which will have VERY LITTLE to do with Sparky.

2. If there is not a SK, then it doesn't matter and we should be looking for mafia, which means we're looking for a person who could be sparky's partner and have a partner on the other side of the claim-fence.

We do NOT know which of the above is true, based on events so far (no extra NK) 1 seems unlikely.  However, an unlikely event doesn't mean we should ignore it.  Consider, if ignoring it led to loss 100% of the time, while addressing it led to victory 100% of the time, then even if it had a 20% chance of being true, it would be really important.  The numbers here are more complicated (even if we assume full random decisions), but I was initially concerned that ignoring it could be about that bad.  If you want to look at the analysis appropriately, here are how the cases break down: Cases 1 and 2 are essentially "what if we ignore the SK-possibility".  Case 3 is "what if we pay attention, and are right".  Case 4 is "what if we pay attention, and are wrong".

So, there are 5 variables (from my POV) that essentially determine whether SK-hunting is actually worth it in this case.  Note: This is assuming we're successful, since if it isn't worth it when we're successful it certainly isn't worth it if we might fail.:
A. What's the probability we win if we don't hunt the SK (and it exists)?  (i.e. prob(lose) in case1 and 2)
B. What's the probability we win if we don't hunt the SK (and it doesn't exist)? (i.e. prob(win) in case 4b)
C. What's the probability we win if we do hunt the SK (and it exists)?  (i.e. prob(win) in case 3)
D. What's the probability we win if we do hunt the SK (and it doesn't exist)? (i.e. prob(win) in case 4a)
E. What's the probability the SK exists.

Then, if you take the letters above as variables, I think the question is, what's the comparison between:
A*E + B*(1-E)  (this is win-chance if we don't hunt SK) and
C*E + D*(1-E)  (win-chance if we do hunt the SK).

I would argue that a pure-random model is a bad model here (although I used those numbers in my case analysis), because it feels like lynching mafia will lead to lynching mafia again.  I would argue that E is difficult to estimate, and largely going to be subjective.
So, considering all of that I would heuristically say:
A is small.  B is large.  C is around 50%, D is around 50%.  E is small.
I think any over-estimation on C and D are made up for by overestimation of B.
So, I guess my final conclusion is that we're probably better off not hunting the SK.  I'd appreciate if another townie was willing to weigh in on that, using strong logic rather than saying "SK probably doesn't exist, just ignore it".

[Grujah]

@Theo

Dude, you cannot "solve" mafia with math. It's not a math probability problem, it's who you think is scum problem.

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Somethnig like this goes in my head:

1) if we have an SK, either:

a) nobody is lying and a kill is missing both N1 and N2 (not impossible, but kinda a strech, though with 2 docs and JK, bulletproofness and busdriving and hiding, this could have happen)

b) Both you and Cuzz are scum and are lying. Which would mean that you most likely shot cayvie and blamed ashersky, but don't know why you didn't blame jo with anything, probably as you might be next on the block in that case? Not sure.

2) If there is no SK, either:

a) you are lying, didn't blame jo cuz you know there is no SK and would get into trouble otherwise.

b) Cuzz is lying, you are an incompetent Tracker
 
(I also see a very slim possibility of VT lying to get lynched cuz he is Vengeful, but I find this very unlikely cuz it's wasting towns resources a lot, and only one I can imagine doing so is O, but I am willing to disregard these)


Occam's Razor says I should take one hypothesis that makes least assumptions. That's 2. Between a) and b), I find you more scummy. But while writing this I saw that I kinda started tunneling you and didn't focus nearly enough on Cuzz.. argh, I should go over his posts later today.

In all cases except 1-a), at least one of you (Cuzz/Robz) are lying. In all cases, there is also a VT scum too. It might be smarter to chase him and not risk a PR death, but with 2) being so damn obvious and it's 50/50 in catching a scum, I'm willing to go that way.

(I understand that for other people have to consider me being scum too, so it's not "50/50" for them, but I got luxury of not having too)

[theorel]

Don't be silly, you can solve anything with math.

[Cuzz]

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

I agree that Grujah is unlikely to be sparky's partner based on their interactions. Thus from my perspective he can't be a serial killer unless both he and you are lying, which I highly doubt. Thus I find the above scenario (all PR claims true, 3 scum in theorel, joth, O, insom) to be the most likely. If I were to guess, I'd say theorel is the most likely town in that bunch.

I see you've voted for me, but I wish you'd seriously consider this possibility. I've somewhat been leaning toward the notion that there are lot's of scum among the VT claims for a while. See this post:

This is actually pretty damn good for town, because it means we're unlikely to mislynch (75% scumlynch possibility? I'll take it).

Now, I do see that your reasoning that led to a vote on me is quite solid. But it's wrong and the situation will suck for town tomorrow if we mislynch me today, especially with 3 scum still alive in all likelihood. So even though I only have one vote on me for now, I can see how others could easily choose to jump on the wagon, since a lot of those left are scum.

Hence I'll begin to defend myself a bit. I'd just ask you to go back to my claim, and remember how genuine it looked to you and everyone else at the time. I'd also ask you to reread as much of me in this game as you can in the context of my claim and look for slips. There are none because my claim is true. Honestly, I hope that if I ever have to fakeclaim as scum that I can survive half as long as I have in this game with my real claim. I'm a terrible, terrible liar, and based on BMV I think I kinda suck at playing scum.

I realize this sounds super defensive (only one vote after all), but having a strong townread of mine on my wagon makes me really nervous at this stage in the game. Thankfully the scum remaining aren't all the same faction or they could quicklynch a doctor right now. (again assuming a SK, detailsdetailsdetails, etc)

[Insomniac]

You guys and your SK theories. IT IS HIGHLY INPROBABLE THAT WE HAVE A SK.

Theorel, SK hunting as opposed to mafia hunting is bad because SK hunting is MUCH more likely than mafia hunting to cause a mislynch, additionally if there IS no SK it causes a scenario tomorrow where you lynch town and town gets shot overnight there are 7 people alive currently, so it brings it down to a 3-2 LYLO scenario which is pretty bad considering we hit scum on Day 2.

[jotheonah]

Robz, do you still think Insomniac is obvSK? Wasn't that a thing yesterday?

[Robz888]

Robz, do you still think Insomniac is obvSK? Wasn't that a thing yesterday?

I just don't know. If there is a SK, yeah. But that was before we had another night with no extra kills.