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[Robz888]

A few posts later, theorel ranks sparky as the least likely scum, which is not something I would expect scum-theorel to do...

[Cuzz]

Let's get some discussion going again!

Vote: jotheonah.

This is of course mostly based on jo's adamant anti-sparkylynch position at the end of D2.

Robz's investigation result also does absolutely nothing to reduce my suspicion. Only one scum member has to perform the kill after all.

There was talk of a soft deadline. I support that. Thursday maybe?

[Robz888]

I am still reviewing, but I must say, O thinking I was busing PPS, making us both scum, and him hammering PPS based on that... now strikes me as a completely plausible insane thing that town O might think I was doing. So I continue to read O as quite townish.

[Robz888]

I still don't get why you hammered. I still can't believe that you really believed it was a bus.

If I can't believe the things you say, it means I think you're lying.

Of course, the only reason scum O ... have we considered that Robz and O are scumbuddies, and O hammered PPS to save Robz? And the epic bus is happening TODAY?

I've traced the origins of the patently absurd "O quicklynched PPS to save Robz" theory, and it turns out it was sort of a joint-effort between Jo and Insomniac who proposed it, and theorel who expounded upon it with a long-winded explanation of how O might have been trying to save me. The theory is nutso, because I was never in any danger of dying. You think I had to worry about getting lynched over PPS? I certainly didn't, and neither would O worry about that, if we were scum together.

Again, it's absurd theory, and theorel made the intellectual case for it, and Jo seized upon it.

[Robz888]

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

There are a couple exchanges between Grujah and sparky (like this one) that I think make them quite unlikely as scum buddies.

I must say, sparky played scum much, much better than in MIX. His posts are completely devoid of useful content, but they didn't appear like that at the time. Points for him. Very hard to get anything out of what he's said, and almost nobody else said much about him, either. A very good under-the-radar scum.

[Robz888]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

Real posts to come this evening - but I agree with this approach.

Once I find scum, I stop looking.

But man, Jo really just locks onto me. He comes on a little strong to be mafia. Although I realize I've never seen Jo as scum in a regular game. Right?

[Robz888]

Insomniac:

Still slightly scummy to me. Has been vaguely pushing a Robz wagon since D1. Has defended both pps and O for crazy anti-town behavior. In terms of post content/volume I really think Insomniac is doing everything that people keep accusing me of. Has posted just slightly more than I have, but doesn't seem to have tons of conviction in his posts.

That is a bold accusation, I have been arguing with people and making cases for lynching people you just come in and regurgitate what other people have said and change in the fact that you think I'm scummy. I have defended neither PPS nor O for anti-town behaviour. I don't support lynching anti-town behaviour I support lynching mafia. The old mafia saying that is constantly repeated is "Lynch mafia not scum" and it seems like some of the people in this game have completely forgotten about that saying.

Insomniac's reaction here is so genuine, it says to me, Cuzz and Insomniac could not possibly both be on the same scum team. I mean, I didn't think they were before, but if we killed Cuzz and he was mafia, I would explicitly deny the possbility that Insomniac was also mafia. Someone remind me I said this later...

[Robz888]

Not a "middle finger" dude, just busy. Between classes now so no time for long post. But I wanted to see if there was any chance someone might invite before I claim doc.

You know, sort of suspicious phrasing on Cuzz's claim, now that I look at it. "I claim doc" is not exactly the most convincing way to say it. "I am the doc," is much better. Although I remember being impressed with the evidence for the claim.

[Robz888]

I have to admit, I'm even starting to think Cuzz looks like a caught scum. Which means I have to eat a lot of crow, possibly.

Of course scum Jo would say this. Of course he wants the Doctor lynched. If Cuzz is the Doctor. And Jo is scum.

[Robz888]

And now we wait.

That's L-1 Correct?

Yep. Claim time.

Ugh, I've just seen this.
I've already said that I HATE forced claims.
I was about to write another '"I won't claim" post like I've done in another game, but that doesn't seem to work here, so, hell, and I know that I've called this stupid, but

I claim a Doctor.

I've breadcrumbed this. In my first in-game post, first sentence references "stupid claim" - by which I meant ehunt's Doctor claim in MIX (I've called it stupid claim repediately). Next sentence talks about PPS's oppening post in MVI - that is a post where he crumbed Doctor in MVI (he confirmed this in aftergame chat).

N1 I protected Insomniac as he wasn't scummy and is prone to dying N1.

Slightly intoxicated.

Oh, Grujah uses the "I claim" phraseology too. Maybe it's not so suspicious.

[Robz888]

Sparky reappears from a long VLA, says he disbelieves Grujah's claim over Cuzz's, votes for Grujah.

Grujah is NOT mafia. Sparky wouldn't have done that if they were together.

[Robz888]

Well, he doesn't vote for Grujah. Still. He did previously.

[Robz888]

An intriguing series of posts.

I FIGURED IT OUT.

Jotheonah and sparky are both mafia.

How do I know? Just now, Jotheonah tried to redirect the lynch to me, rather than sparky. He never voted for sparky. He's voted for, like, everybody. But not sparky (it's mutual, fyi).

I think we got them. Who does everybody prefer?

Vote Count 2-18

O (2): theorel, sparky5856
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Insomniac
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Grujah
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: O, Robz888

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

RObz, please tell me what we learn from a sparky flip.

I will tell you why I've never voted sparky (btw, I've also never voted Insomniac. he must be the third teammate!)

It's because I don't vote for lurkers, in general. I vote for people who engage in behavior that makes me think they're scum. Not just mildly suspect, like, I have to be able to put together a narrative.

And I haven't had that read on sparky all game. I've had no read on him, basically.

Vote: Jotheonah

I think.

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Now I see why everyone is annoyed when I'm not here. The heart of mafia is engaging, and waiting for the others to give unique feedback sucks.

I bolded that sparky post for emphasis, because if I am correct, this is the post that doomed his team. Look how Jo opposes a sparky lynch because he doesn't have enough info, or the flip won't be informational enough (BS reasons at this point), and then look at sparky defend Jo. Why would sparky defend Jo? Sparky should have no interest in defending Jo. I will tell you what this reaction is: this is scum saying, "Hey! Don't suspect my partner because of that! I'm incredulous that you would suspect my partner for something he doesn't deserve to be suspected for!" I've known that reaction before. It's a very natural thing, to want to defend a partner, when you don't like the case against them from an objective standpoint, or think you were ultra devious and resent being called out. We know sparky was scum, and I really think he was trying a bit desperately to shoot down any chance of a sparky-Jo scum team getting discussed.

[Robz888]

And I'm caught up. My apologies for posting 10 times in a row. Here's a person-by-person analysis:

Grujah: Unless Grujah is the Serial Killer, Grujah is town. I don't think he could possibly be on the same scum team as sparky, based on how much sparky came after him. Much of it was non-trivial attack; sparky was anti-grujah at key times. Unless he set out to play a much riskier, and advanced scum game, (his scum game has improved, but it became more subtle, not more risky), Grujah is ruled out as a scum partner.

Cuzz: Cuzz's likelihood of being town fell drastically, but is rebounding a bit. His posts don't seem quite so scummy this time through, they seem genuine. I'm actually back closer to the camp that both Doctors are telling the truth, and we have no Serial Killer. Wouldn't that be nice! Needless to say, I don't think we should lynch either of them today.

Insomniac: Insomniac, along with Grujah, is my main SK contender, but I don't know that there actually is an SK. I currently think he has a very low chance of being scum, mainly because other people I think are scum have put a lot of trust in him, and he's had a couple reactions that read very town-Insomniac to me. But man, he sure did sound like a Serial Killer at the end of yesterday. NNot in favor of lynching him now.

O and Theorel: O has been extremely anti-theorel (and anti-me). Theorel has been extremely anti-O. Otherwise, O is typical O and Theorel is typical theorel. I have had a feeling the whole time that O is town. He seems more like town O. I think if O is mafia, there's a good chance that one of the very vlocally anti-O people (Theorel, possibly Jo) is scum with him. That's the kind of stuff O does, possibly. But right now I have a hard time lumping O in with sparky. They have so little overlap, and O isn't one to ignore his scumbuddies. He has to snipe at them a bit. So I am still discounting O just for now, but will revisit him tomorrow. O should in no way be ruled out. Theorel has been very town-ish in his analysis, but we all know that scum can fake being town, and the kind of info theorel gives is fairly easy for a competent mafia to fake. Now, theorel drove the lynch against sparky at all the right times. However, this is something a shrewd person like theorel would do as scum. I am sure he could have guessed that sparky was going down and it would be wise to be on that wagon. I strongly suspect theorel is scum.

Jotheonah: However, Jo takes the prize over theorel (though I still expect they are both scum). Why? Jo wanted to lynch O. He wanted to lynch me. He supported lynching Grujah. He supported JK claiming and mass-claiming. He supported all these things strongly. The only thing that gave him pause was lynching sparky. If he's not mafia, it's quite a mistake. But it sure looks scummy. There are so many little things, too. Cuzz claims doctor and Jo immediately makes a comment about not believing it and liking my case against him. Add in that I don't like the cases he made against me and O being scumbuddies, and I'm fairly convinced. However, we know he didn't take any action last night, unless a Bus Driver switched him with someone else, or he was the Bus Driver and just chose to do nothing. I think either of these things are so very possible, they ultimately don't give me much pause.

Vote: Jotheonah

If the rest of the town prefers theorel, I may switch to theorel.

[Insomniac]

Nice analysis Robz, I think I'd be willing to vote Jo as well today but I don't want to do it yet as we have tons of time and obviously Jo is gonna have something to say about being called scum. Plus he already has 2 votes on him I'd like to see a bit more discussion before he gets to 3 so for obvious reasons I will not be voting just yet.

[theorel]

Reading through Robz' posts, 2 things.
1. If both doctors are telling the truth, AND Robz is telling the truth, there IS a SK.  I'd accuse this as a scum-slip, but since Frisk, Robz, and myself all got it wrong yesterday it's just notable that it's wrong.  So, @Robz: if Cuzz and Grujah and you are all telling the truth, SK exists.  If Cuzz, Grujah, or you are lying, (and only one of you), then there is NO SK.

2. I don't *think* I've ever given a reason why Robz and O could be scumbuddies with O quick-hammering to protect Robz.  I personally thought it was a pretty weak theory from the beginning, though I don't think I ever said so.  I said O could have been protecting either Cuzz or Sparky by quick-hammering, as that makes a whole lot more sense.  I said that O flipping scum would implicate sparky, and have stated today that sparky flipping town implicates O by the same argument.  Anyways, I assume I'm being misunderstood somewhere, maybe when I was arguing for how weak O's case for a Robz-PPS pair was?  (I pointed out the illogic of saying Robz was scum for pushing PPS-wagon, and then switching to Robz' too obvious to be pushing the PPS-wagon if PPS is town, and then concluding that PPS must be scum rather than the simpler Robz is town explanation)

Anyways, to clarify I still don't think Robz-O are scumbuddies.  From my POV, these two are most likely:
1. Cuzz-joth mafia.  This is probably the most likely case from my perspective.

2. Cuzz-O mafia.  This one's a little weaker than 2, but still likely enough.

After this, the rest of the possibilities either require a SK (and seem weak because of unlikelihood of SK), OR just seem weak based on player behavior.
In particular:
Insomniac/Grujah, don't seem likely as mafia.  That's some strong bussing through the day.  OTOH, maybe Grujah thought he'd die and sparky would live through WIFOM?  At this point, I don't really think Grujah is lying, but it is possible.
Insomniac doesn't seem likely as SK, based on 1. above, besides the fact that SK-itself seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

Robz doesn't pair well with O or joth IMO.  That leaves Robz-Cuzz, which requires a SK.

And then there's the possibility where all PRs are honest, and we have a SK.  I dunno, pairing two of the three and leaving the last as SK doesn't make good sense.
O thinks Insom is scum, joth town.  (thinks theo=scum)
joth things O is scum, Insom town.  (thinks theo=town I think)
Insom thinks joth is scum, O is town. (thinks theo=town? not exactly sure here)

theo thinks O and joth are scum, thinks Insom is town.  (well, I only think ONE of joth/O are scum.  Which unfortunately may mean that O is town.  Which is ridiculous, because he's the WORST TOWN PLAYER EVER.)

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-3

Robz888 (1): Grujah
O (1): jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (2): Cuzz, Robz888

Not voting {2}: Insomniac, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

I'm still not convinced that Grujah is telling the truth, but I don't see any downside to the following proposal:

Grujah, if (big if) we are fortunate enough to lynch the mafia busdriver today, will you agree to protect me tonight, and I'll do the same for you? That would leave only the mafia JOAT left, and he can't kill and roleblock in the same night.

Of course, if the busdriver is still alive tonight, we shouldn't give any indication of whom we plan to protect.

[theorel]

@Cuzz, I think that only really works well if Robz is lying.

The issue is that if either of you is lying it fails to verify you, and wastes doctor protection.  (unless the one of you that is mafia outs yourself)

Suppose for instance that Grujah is the mafia JOAT.  Then he agrees, and you protect him, meanwhile he kills Robz.  He can do so, and be guaranteed of success because you said you would protect him 100% of the time.

I think a mixed strategy is still best, weighted according to whichever PR you trust the most, but randomized among the other two claimants.  Weighting should be kept secret so that mafia don't know who to target.

Note also, if all three of you are telling the truth (unlikely though it seems to me), then the mafia could still kill Robz under your strategy, and we would still know nothing.  Better to give the mafia at least a chance of failing to get their NK.  Especially if the only one left might actually fail to get it.

[Cuzz]

@Cuzz, I think that only really works well if Robz is lying.

The issue is that if either of you is lying it fails to verify you, and wastes doctor protection.  (unless the one of you that is mafia outs yourself)

Suppose for instance that Grujah is the mafia JOAT.  Then he agrees, and you protect him, meanwhile he kills Robz.  He can do so, and be guaranteed of success because you said you would protect him 100% of the time.

I think a mixed strategy is still best, weighted according to whichever PR you trust the most, but randomized among the other two claimants.  Weighting should be kept secret so that mafia don't know who to target.

Note also, if all three of you are telling the truth (unlikely though it seems to me), then the mafia could still kill Robz under your strategy, and we would still know nothing.  Better to give the mafia at least a chance of failing to get their NK.  Especially if the only one left might actually fail to get it.

This is a good point actually. Not sure why I missed that. Town points for you, theorel.

[jotheonah]

I'll admit that I haven't played this game very well. I've latched on to anti-town behaviors that in retrospect are either proven town (PPS's insta-VT claim) or are now looking townier (O's quicklynch). And I've locked onto suspicious claims, which are also usually a good way to catch scum. For one reason or another the stuff that usually works hasn't worked this game.

Maybe it has, maybe Robz and O really are scum and Robz "investigating" me as no action was a brilliant move to finally get me off his case, since I think I made it pretty clear that I wouldn't budge from it any other way.  But to go through the trouble of gaining my trust just to launch a mega-case on ... me. Odd but not impossible.

I locked onto Robz because of my experience with Robz, which is that he's better than anyone else at convincing me he's town when he's scum.  The only counter I know of for this is for me to really dig in when I suspect him. I'm sorry that it's made me look scummy, but if I get lynched, I hope the rest of you will really scrutinize him closely. I still don't trust him or the way he's been running the day (granted, a lot of that is the rest of us are so lost we're not posting.)

Case against Robz:
Both his claims are easy and obvious
 - He claimed Tracker when he knew it was a remaining possible role, and he claimed to have tracked someone whose results could be deduced from the lynch flip. He had plenty of time to craft a fake claim, something I know from experience scumRobz does ahead of time.
 - Today he claimed to have tracked me, but if he's mafia he knows I'm vanilla town (remember the   mafia have enough info to know if there's a SK at this point, so he can confidently say I did nothing and get some extra cred. This convinced me at the start of the day, but now I see it as a safe option. I think if you lynch me today, you should make Robz track one of the doctors and see if he can correctly name your target tomorrow.
 - His push on the PPS lynch day one as hard and scummy, I know you all thought so at the time.
 - O behaved strangely (quicklynched) when he (Robz) was on the chopping block, and though Robz asserts that this is absurd, I totally believe they could have trusted their collective abilities to talk their way out of it Day 2, as they, in fact, did.

Vote: Robz

I don't think I'll convince you guys. But I hope I can set you up to win tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

Additionally, the fact that he
(A) argued yesterday to keep himself alive because his power is valuable
(B) used that power on me and cleared me
and
(C) now wants to lynch me
should raise red flags. Either his power isn't really valuable and he was using a specious argument to save himself yesterday, or his power should be enough to focus the lynch elsewhere.

[Robz888]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence, they change based on how dangerous the person is to him. For instance, when I began today by saying that I tracked Jo and he didn't do anything, he thought this meant I wasn't coming after him, and he said it made him more likely to believe my claim. But now that I am coming after him anyway, he's voting for me. He has a survivalist mentality that makes it him vs. me, even though just because I am pushing for him doesn't mean, and shouldn't make it so in his mind, that I am scum.

We need 4 to lynch. Cuzz, Insomniac, and I will all vote for Joth. I take it from theorel's comments that he prefers to lynch Cuzz, but is okay with a Joth lynch (which is exactly what I would expect from theorel, if he is indeed Joth's scummate). Can everybody else weigh in on whether they are okay with a Jo lynch? Or, express support for his preference, a lynch of the town Tracker?

Please, you know, weigh in soon. It was a littl mystifying to me that the whole town halted and waited for me to review. Of course that happens in other games, too, but we have a time limit here, people.

@Theorel, thanks for correcting my mistake and pointing out that 6 Prs = SK. If I have to disbelieve one of the PRs, I don't know what to do. Cuzz is of course more likely mafia, because Grujah ISN'T mafia, but Grujah could be SK, I think.

[jotheonah]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence,

says the guy who cleared me with his power role and is now voting for me.

[Robz888]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence,

says the guy who cleared me with his power role and is now voting for me.

I didn't "Clear" you with my power role. I reported what you did, which was nothing. But there are two easy ways to get around i: your mafia cohort Bus Drove you, or you are the Bus Driver and just did nothing.

Of course I found myself thinking you were less likely to be scum. But after reviewing the thread, it remains that your record is the most scummy, both separately and in conjunction with sparky.