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[jotheonah]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

[Robz888]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

[Insomniac]

I don't think your right at all Jo, the problem with tracker is its not a cop, a null result doesn't mean much while a result is damning.

And if we didn't lynch sparky then who knows if we would have lynched scum, and we would be soo much worse off today, not to mention we have sparky's interactions to go on which make you look really bad.

[jotheonah]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

The current game state begs to differ. In a given night, of course it's better to lynch scum. But the town is playing to win the whole game. We're very close to losing the whole game, because we lynched a scummy loner instead of pursuing a scum narrative.

[Cuzz]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

I'm gonna stop addressing my comments to you, jo, because there's no point in arguing directly with someone I think is scum.

But to the undecided townies remaining, please read those above comments and try to tell me why a townie would argue that sparky was a bad lynch after sparky flipped scum.

This is utterly insane. Town does not have perfect information. It is hard enough to lynch scum, period. But we should have backed down from the sparky wagon to go for someone more informational, who may or may not have even been scum?

[jotheonah]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

[Robz888]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

The current game state begs to differ. In a given night, of course it's better to lynch scum. But the town is playing to win the whole game. We're very close to losing the whole game, because we lynched a scummy loner instead of pursuing a scum narrative.

... who was scum.

[Robz888]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

[jotheonah]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

Well I'm not saying we should have lynched town! I'm saying we should have lynched a scum who interacted more.

If we had lynched town though, you for example, if you're town, which I still don't really believe, I still think we would have known a lot more about O, Grujah, and myself. 

This is sort of a pointless discussion. The point I was originally making was this: do you really want to lynch me today? Do you think that if you lynch me today and I flip town (the outcome that will happen) you can win the game? Do you think that if you lynch me and I flip scum (the outcome that won't happen) you can win the game?

[Robz888]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

Well I'm not saying we should have lynched town! I'm saying we should have lynched a scum who interacted more.

If we had lynched town though, you for example, if you're town, which I still don't really believe, I still think we would have known a lot more about O, Grujah, and myself. 

This is sort of a pointless discussion. The point I was originally making was this: do you really want to lynch me today? Do you think that if you lynch me today and I flip town (the outcome that will happen) you can win the game? Do you think that if you lynch me and I flip scum (the outcome that won't happen) you can win the game?

If you flip town, it will be terrible, but not because I will suddenly feel lost on all my reads, but because you will have flipped town. You're over thinking this. We have tons of info. It doesn't just dry up because we lynch the wrong person. That can happen, but it's not happening in our game in its current state.

[jotheonah]

Well, I'm going to Vote: Cuzz. Robz, I hope you'll vote with me. Maybe we can get O too, I know he doesn't like my lynch.

[jotheonah]

And now I'm going to go get some work done.

[Robz888]

Blaaaaargh.

[Cuzz]

And now I'm going to go get some work done.

I've been telling myself this for hours. This game is just way more fun than the mountain of exams I have to grade...

[Robz888]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

[Robz888]

The only person I can trust is Grujah, who is useless and thinks I'm scum. I like O, Theorle and Insomniac, but as many as all 3 of them could be scum. Yuck.

[Cuzz]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

This is why I feel like there's probably an SK. Do me a favor and reread the end of D2 and see if I look like sparky's scumpartner there.

[Cuzz]

Actually I just checked and I wasn't as active then as I remembered. I was busy. But I was on the wagon at least, when I could have just ducked out for a few hours had I been his partner.

[Insomniac]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

This is why I feel like there's probably an SK. Do me a favor and reread the end of D2 and see if I look like sparky's scumpartner there.

Occum's Razor, there have been no unexplained nightkills, there is no SK.

The SK would have NEVER shot Frisk last night mafia would do it, I don't know whether he would aim for scum or town but I think scum.
Because the SK should never shoot Frisk and Frisk died it is a given that Frisk is the mafia kill.

Now you and Grujah claim to have both doctored Frisk. Therefore the SK kill as bulletproof or ninja would have gone through.

Thus you can conclude that there is no SK because the circumstance fro the previous night makes it impossible QED.

[Robz888]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

[theorel]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Actually, I was taking a long-winded mathematical approach to saying "It's really bad if there's a SK and we don't kill him today".  But it was long-winded and mathematical because I was trying to determine if it really is bad, rather than just declaring it because I felt like it would be.  I think it isn't as bad as I thought it was (unless jo really is town, and even then the SK and mafia might explode on top of each other making town still winnable). 

I'm still concerned about O pairings, I'm concerned about Robz and Cuzz' willingness to lynch jo.

If Cuzz is scum with jo, he's basically just sacrificing the game.  (I mean really, if we get 2 chances to kill the PR-claiming scum, we've basically won.)
If one of them is scum, this is a ZM2-bus, not a MVIII-bus.  (i.e. a bus which ultimately loses the game even if it convinces people you're probably town)

So, the only possibility I can see is for a Grujah-jo scumteam.  Which I agree with Robz on, it seems unlikely.

@Robz: if Cuzz is scum, jo isn't.

So, here are the teams that make sense to me:  (in no particular order)
1. jo, O and Insomniac are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac because they're more likely to be the SK and lynching SK is better than lynching mafia (I think).
2. Robz-O are scum-mates.  NOT because O quick-hammered to save Robz...If I'm dipping into second-rung likelihood well, this is at least plausible.  Early bussing, now full-on town reads without any strong reasons.  I hate the "he just seems town" argument...O has done nothing pro-town this game at all.
3. Cuzz-O are scum-mates.  I don't see any reason this needs to be false.  It gives O double-reason to quick-hammer day1.
4. jo-Grujah are scum-mates.  But this means Grujah hard-bussed Sparky, AND jo hard-defended him.
5. Robz-Cuzz-(Insomniac OR O) are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac as in 1 (I think).

Although, all that said, I agree with Cuzz' latest comment.  The "even if I flip scum" thing is silly.  @jo: if you flip scum, we have (at least) 2 shots at lynching your PR-claiming buddy.  I think we basically win the game in that case.

I still don't like that Grujah is his only reasonable scum-buddy, though.  I'm certainly divided in my mind...but I don't think I'll hammer jo at this time. 

PPE: wow, I had this window up for a while doing other things.  Um...here's to hoping it's relevant.

[Insomniac]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

[Robz888]

It could easily be Jo or Cuzz. There's a right answer, but I don't know what it is, and I don't fault anyone else for not knowing. Jo is a better fit to be sparky's partner, and he has squirmed and offered ridiculous reasons to be counter this (sparky not being informational and such).

So I guess I'm going to stick with Jo. I guess. Vote: Jotheonah

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-7

Robz888 (1): Grujah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (3): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888
Cuzz (1): jotheonah

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

You're ignoring the Jailkeeper