Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Galzria]

My list, from suspicious to not: Galzria, Z, Frisk, O, yuma.

Galzria, mostly because he looks like he is picking a fight, and he didn't follow the orders. Yuma I have no specific suspicions of. Everybody else sort of runs together.

Btw, you get terrible reads on me.

I wasn't picking a fight, just correcting some wording choices that felt backhanded to me. Nothing serious (nor did I intend my response to come off as angry - hence the Airplane! Reference).

Eh, I'm sure now I'm just backpeddling, but what can one do?

[Galzria]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

[O]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

Well, it's not really a scumtell in of itself IMO but if one of Yuma/Galz flipped scum (which I don't think is too amazingly likely) I would start looking into this connection.

[Galzria]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

Well, it's not really a scumtell in of itself IMO but if one of Yuma/Galz flipped scum (which I don't think is too amazingly likely) I would start looking into this connection.

Eh, like I said, Yuma is hands down my strongest town read. Given he can only be scum if TINAS protected C.F. In death (nobody could have jailed Yuma, and only TINAS targeted* C.F. With Yuma) it just seems unlikely and jives with Yuma not voting.

*TINAS's target is unconfirmed, making the above even more likely.

[zxcvbn2]

I think yuma and Robz are most likely doctors, b/c of a combination of what they've written and that they both abstained from voting last time.

I think if I made a list, it would look like:
Frisk
Galzria
O
yuma/ Robz
me

I think with Frisk pointing out O makes Frisk look suspicious. Which basically leaves Galzria. I doubt Frisk would be pointing at O as potentially suspicious if they were both mafia,  which looks even worse for Galzria, through my eyes.

Just take that however you like.

[Captain_Frisk]

My list:

Galz: For not following instructions on who to target - and for reasons below.
O: Not because of the scenario I dreamed up - but because he declared target last.
zxc: for muddying the waters by changing vote targets
Yuma / Robz: No read
Me: Double checked my PM

The biggest reason I'm FOS-ing Galz is this:

WE SHOULD NOT BE LYNCHING TODAY

O alluded to this yesterday - but with 6 people, 2 mafia, 4 required to lynch we need all 4 townies to get together on a lynch.  If we fail - then all we need is 1 townkill @ night and the game is over.  We basically put ourselves in a position where we are relying on random powers to save our bacon.

If we no-lynch - then we have a little buffer for our power explosions tonight - and (hopefully) on day 3 we will have enough information to make informed decisions.

We could no-lynch - and no-power - and we'll be in the same situation here tomorrow, but at least then we only need 3 townies to agree on who to lynch... which is a much stronger position.

Galz knows this - he's used the very same math in M3... and yet he hasn't said anything about it here.

[Captain_Frisk]

Edit - O didn't declare his target last among all of us... last among active players.  He was logged in, Rob, Galz and I all declared quickly, and then he declared later. 

[Galzria]

F***

Had my whole essay typed out and closed the window. Here's the abbreviated version:

Least to most suspicious:

Galzria: Hi. Pushed for lynch yesterday, but have analysis on respective flips at the possible detriment to myself if ftl flipped town. WIFOM argument for you guys. Not a Familiar.

Yuma: Least likely via the charts (only if TINAS targeted Frisk). Didn't vote ftl. Likely not scum.

Robz: Also didn't  vote ftl, but was quiet D1, which was a spy tell in Resistance. Not getting that vibe overall here though, and has been helpful D2.

CF: This was his positioning in the first list too, but only because he hadn't said much. His last post however is just silly. He wants us to No-Lynch, so our random powers don't end the game. But basically, you're trading a controlled kill for a roll of the dice. I understand getting all 4 is harder than getting 3, but as I don't know what will happen at night I would rather have control over who I try and kill.

O: His "buying hammer, will provide nails" was very  anti-town cnn play. Yes, I wanted ftl's lynch too, but I have analysis on what his flip would tell us. O just wanted him dead. Also, my chart would be helped the most by his lynch. Still, I'm not sure, and honestly I could care less what our roles are, I just want to find scum. So he's not an ideal lynch.

Zxcvbn2: Aside from the documented scumslip, Z's odds of being scum on the chart are better than anybody else by a good Margin. Even if I don't trust the chart fully though, I looked back at the proposed lists (of which he made the second), and the only pair that was the same on both were Him/Insomniac. As scum, this provided a way for him to assure his kill went through since regardless of which list people followed, Insomniac couldn't be protected. This plays to the Mafia wincon ideal in a random power setup. Put everything together, and the odds of finding scum here are pretty decent. Better than anywhere else anyway.

---
More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

[Captain_Frisk]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

[zxcvbn2]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

[Captain_Frisk]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

Mafia can only kill 1 town.

[zxcvbn2]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

Mafia can only kill 1 town.

Okay, misunderstood. Sorry.

[yuma]

I am really conflicted about my list, because no one to me is solid town, or really solid familiar. It is all too up in the air.

zxcvbn is suspicious but do I believe his naivety and subsequent defense? Not really.

He is at the top, everyone else is rather muddled.

I am really torn about Robz. I have a hard time believing that the ftl lynch had both mafia members on it--well I could believe that both were on it if zxcvbn turns up familiar--but if only one was on the lynch then Robz has to be familiar right, as I am not.

I don't think Robz has addressed this potential with me--possibly because if he is familiar he didn't want to bring suspicion down on himself by casting doubt at the two (Robz and me) who didn't vote for ftl.

Using this logic I would bet that either zxcvbn or Robz is mafia, and the other mafia is within the group of the next three. But this takes the assumption that both zxcvbn and Robz aren't mafia together, which I highly doubt.

Frisk, O and Galz all float together. I don't buy Frisk's suspicion of either Galz or O for not following instructions or for declaring last. Those seem to be too unsubstantial and if the only reasons certainly aren't enough for me.

So if you want a list:

zxcvbn
robz - again this suspicion is more if zxcvbn is town
galz, O, Frisk (If I really had to separate these three it would be Frisk, O, Galz) but they are all really close
yuma

If we do lynch someone I think lynching zxcvbn is a better bet than the rest, and we can get some useful information out of it. But again the question do we want to lynch?

(Also, I bet people have noticed, but haven't commented that Robz and I were the only ones not targeted during the night, does that have any significance?)

[O]

WE SHOULD NOT BE LYNCHING TODAY

M1 had the stalemate breaking provision that Mafia win if nolynch-NK for 3 days, not sure what MV's is

either way saying "we're at MYLO" here is ambiguous for multiple reasons: protective roles (we wouldn't have won if we didn't misslynch at MYLO in M3..) and killing-doctor roles.

I'm not convinced either way, really.

[O]

we need some progress guys

[Galzria]

we need some progress guys

I agree. I think I've pulled everything I can out of the night actions. I disagree with C.F. On not lynching, but I don't think his argument was really a scum tell.

Best thing I have is Zxcvbn2 setting his list to only include the same pair in one spot: Him/Insomniac. No matter who followed what list, he would have Insomniac all alone. This guaranteed that Insomniac could not be protected. I cannot see any protown reason for this, when he mixed pairs on everybody else.

Vote: Zxcvbn2

That's the strongest tell I think we're likely to see.

[O]

I'd like to vote for Z aswell but in reverse-pyschology-mafia-land that obviously means Z is town.

Except it doesn't, we don't have any better options and he's still l-2

VOTE:Zxcvbn2

[Robz888]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

[O]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

[Robz888]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

Well, I disagree entirely. This is his first game. In my first game, if I were mafia, I would have gone to great lengths to not be the ultimate vote in a mislynch.

[O]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

Well, I disagree entirely. This is his first game. In my first game, if I were mafia, I would have gone to great lengths to not be the ultimate vote in a mislynch.

This is his first game on F.DS, he has read other F.DS mafia threads presumably/played other mafia games...

I mean, you can't honestly believe that a hammer on a town is a towntell? It's incredibly WIFOM and you know it. And this is the second time you've oddly steadfastly defended Z.

[Robz888]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

[O]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

And then you distance.

[Robz888]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

And then you distance.

You know what, I'm going to VOTE: GALZRIA, because he didn't follow directions, and that's what my instinct is, and this is going to turn out randomly anyway.

[Galzria]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

It will be random, of course. But it will be LESS random than anybody else. There are only Three Non-Familiar roles he can be, and that's INCLUDING him telling the truth and a Mafia lying. (He could have killed Insomniac as a Alchemist or Golem. He could be a Stoned Philosopher if Mafia lied and targeted Insomniac. Nothing else works). That's FAR better than the options for anybody else, and added into the reason I listed to vote for him (Scumtell based on list pairing only him and Insomniac together - the only pairing the same as Insomniacs list) makes it far less than "average 2/6" odds.