F***
Had my whole essay typed out and closed the window. Here's the abbreviated version:
Least to most suspicious:
Galzria: Hi. Pushed for lynch yesterday, but have analysis on respective flips at the possible detriment to myself if ftl flipped town. WIFOM argument for you guys. Not a Familiar.
Yuma: Least likely via the charts (only if TINAS targeted Frisk). Didn't vote ftl. Likely not scum.
Robz: Also didn't vote ftl, but was quiet D1, which was a spy tell in Resistance. Not getting that vibe overall here though, and has been helpful D2.
CF: This was his positioning in the first list too, but only because he hadn't said much. His last post however is just silly. He wants us to No-Lynch, so our random powers don't end the game. But basically, you're trading a controlled kill for a roll of the dice. I understand getting all 4 is harder than getting 3, but as I don't know what will happen at night I would rather have control over who I try and kill.
O: His "buying hammer, will provide nails" was very anti-town cnn play. Yes, I wanted ftl's lynch too, but I have analysis on what his flip would tell us. O just wanted him dead. Also, my chart would be helped the most by his lynch. Still, I'm not sure, and honestly I could care less what our roles are, I just want to find scum. So he's not an ideal lynch.
Zxcvbn2: Aside from the documented scumslip, Z's odds of being scum on the chart are better than anybody else by a good Margin. Even if I don't trust the chart fully though, I looked back at the proposed lists (of which he made the second), and the only pair that was the same on both were Him/Insomniac. As scum, this provided a way for him to assure his kill went through since regardless of which list people followed, Insomniac couldn't be protected. This plays to the Mafia wincon ideal in a random power setup. Put everything together, and the odds of finding scum here are pretty decent. Better than anywhere else anyway.
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More @Frisk:
In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.