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[O]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

[Galzria]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

[Galzria]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

I guess the only lie that would make sense though is that if Mafia ARE responsible for one of the kills, they would likely claim to have targeted someone who didn't die. But then that's the logical thing to do, so maybe they just told the truth anyway? I don't know. WIFOM.

[O]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

.... We really screwed this one up, didn't we.

[Robz888]

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

[Galzria]

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

I would agree with that based on his "scum" tell, and I know O feels somewhat similar as well - And the fact that all 3 of us feel that way worries me WAY to much to do so.

I'll have to look over the chart and try to figure out who gives us the best concrete answers by lynching (thus confirming... well, argh. Nothing. Unless they flip Familiar)...

[Captain_Frisk]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

The point of the chart is to catch mafia in a lying position.

[Captain_Frisk]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

The jailor wouldn't lie.  As long as you assume that our dead tonwies voted per the instructions, and weren't renegades like Galzria, you can safely assume that people only people who were targeted by someone are eligible to be jailed.

[zxcvbn2]

I will say this, because I don't think I can put myself in a worse position than I already am.

I knew my game was probably done the moment ftl flipped town. It was stupid and risky of me to hammer, and especially to suggest different night actions in the same post. I clearly should have posted that, waited for arguments, then voted. It makes little difference now though.

The problem with using an incompetence defense here is that it can obviously be used both ways. I voted because I was stupid, and what mafia would hammer there? But at the same time, I'm already clearly not very bright at this game regardless of my alliance.

However, I am an apothecary. I don't know how to prove it. I really can't. All I can say is that there is really no way town can win if you lynch me.

[Robz888]

I actually believe him.

[Galzria]

I actually believe him.

Eh, at the moment I don't/can't weigh it either way. If you're playing Mafia on f.DS I already have an ingrained respect in the player intelligence levels. So while I don't buy "I'm not smart at this" (smart IS assumed different than experienced here), I'm not going to judge based on that statement either way.

It's WAY easier to get in over head as town than Mafia. So... Yeah. For now I'll attempt the deathy method.

[yuma]

I have been looking over everything and can't get much out of the charts and speculation--thanks to those who made them though.

But this did jump out to me.

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

I actually believe him.

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

[Robz888]

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

His response struck me as either genuine, or expertly crafted. If he was mafia, his hammer on ftl was a risky move--in fact, probably a bad move. So it doesn't suggest to me the kind of expertise he would need, as mafia, to write such an adequate response to my accusation. So I am more or less buying his defense. Although now I wish I had furiously denounced him anyway, because it might have revealed who else was willing to go along with it.

[Galzria]

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

His response struck me as either genuine, or expertly crafted. If he was mafia, his hammer on ftl was a risky move--in fact, probably a bad move. So it doesn't suggest to me the kind of expertise he would need, as mafia, to write such an adequate response to my accusation. So I am more or less buying his defense. Although now I wish I had furiously denounced him anyway, because it might have revealed who else was willing to go along with it.

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

[O]

expertly crafted responses don't earn my trust anymore. In MIII I was pretty sure Eevee was scum, read his analysis post in lylo, got massive townread, and then he turns out to be scum...

[jotheonah]

Well into the morning, the Vineyard's dirt floor is filled with charts and diagrams, scratched into the ground by Galzria and Robz888. When zxcvb2 happens to step on part of the chart, Galz screams "Familiar! Familiar!"  As the town stares he says, in a quiet voice "Please don't step on my chart."

Vote Count

not voting - Robz888, Galzria, O, yuma, Captain_Frisk, zxvcbn2

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


I was PMed about this, so I'm addressing it.  I have no problem with the docs being shared.  But be aware that outside resources like Google docs are editable (unlike posts and QTs) and cannot be policed by the mod, so trust them at your own peril.

[Robz888]

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

Galzria, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I didn't mean anyone specifically.

But now, yes.

[O]

Scumhunt I guess:

#1 Z for the possible scumslip and then later not understanding the scumslip apparently
#2 Captain Frisk for forgetting which players were alive and using pretty bad logic with tables to try to FOS with me (he assumed everyone was telling the truth and, and drew the conclusion that its likely that weak doc targeted me and I'm scum).
#3 Yuma for lack of posts. Obviously he has every reason to be V/LA, I'm not suspicious of him because he's V/LA, I just haven't had the opportunity to get a townread/scumread
#4 Galzria, townish read
#5 Robz, pretty town atm for making the chart
#6 Myself. I was suspicious at first, but then I went back and checked my role PM and it turns out I'm apothecary.

I'd like to see other people make posts like this, if possible.

[Galzria]

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

Galzria, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I didn't mean anyone specifically.

But now, yes.

Err, "but now, yes" - not quite sure I got your intended meaning on that.

Do you have a different interpretation?

[Robz888]

Well, you sort of made the "who else" conversation about you. I didn't mean for it to be that way. It's fine. I'm not gunning for you. Should I be? You didn't follow instructions!

[O]

ITT: The two scum who I had lowest on my suspicion list battle each other in an exercise of futility while ignoring my list based scum-hunting efforts.

[Robz888]

I'm not ignoring your list, O. When I urged Galzria to make a list as well, many posts ago, I was actually talking about making one in the style of YOUR list, not in the style of my useless chart that won't solve anything as it turns out.

But then he went and put in Galzria-level effort on an apothecary chart, and I decided to let it slide.

[Robz888]

My list, from suspicious to not: Galzria, Z, Frisk, O, yuma.

Galzria, mostly because he looks like he is picking a fight, and he didn't follow the orders. Yuma I have no specific suspicions of. Everybody else sort of runs together.

[Galzria]

Well, you sort of made the "who else" conversation about you. I didn't mean for it to be that way. It's fine. I'm not gunning for you. Should I be? You didn't follow instructions!

I would have if there were instructions to follow! At last, not that were agreed on.

No, really, we really got screwed by that. Both you and O targeting me, and the possibility of TINAS targeting either of two people make it nearly impossible to get a clean chart. Had we used a single pair setup, it would be a lot cleaner.

And I didn't intend to make the above about me (obviously), but your previous statement had felt unfair to what I actually felt/said, so I was inclined to correct it.

In any case, you should be gunning for me if you think I'm Mafia. I would suggest that as Mafia I wouldn't put that much effort into what is largely a town tool, but I can understand how that would ring hollow after M-II. Still, this game is so much different than that (least of all because here I'm pro-town). This whole setup is confusing.

I'm not taking it less seriously... But it feels SO much more out of my control and up to the dice. Hmm. *Pops in Luck Be A Lady*.

On nothing classic Mafia related, I think I would lynch O or Zxc. The first because he is the most wide open in terms of possibilities on my chart and could clear the most up by flipping Apothecary/Familiar. The latter because he has the fewest non-Familiar outs.

The fact that both were on the lynch wagon gives me that much more to go on.

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Speaking of Yuma, he has the lowest odds of being a Familiar on the chart, and as he was off the wagon, I am inclined to trust him.

[O]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?