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[jotheonah]

PM me for discussion QT.

Welcome to Mafia V: Emptying the Apothecary Pile!

Players Signed Up: (now spoilered in case people want to read it through without knowing the ending)
1 - Robz888 - Town Apothecary, Lynched Day 2
2 - Galzria
3 - O - Familiar, Killed Night 2
4 - Thisisnotasmile - Town Apothecary, Killed Night 1
5 - ftl - Town Apothecary, Lynched Day 1
6 - yuma - Familiar, Killed Night 2
7 - Captain_Frisk - Town Apothecary, Killed Night 2
8 - Insomniac - Town Herbalist, Killed Night 1
9 - zxcvbn2 - replaced 7/9/2012 by
9 - ehunt

Mafia Ruleset (blatantly stolen from Axxle's Mafia II intro post)

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it.  Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 1 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.


The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Game Setup
Game Setup information:

We will be playing Medical Mafia, reskinned with a Dominion Flavor.

There will be 9 players: 2 Familiars, 6 Apothecaries, and an Herbalist.

The Apothecaries will have 6 different sanities:

True Apothecary - Regular Doctor. You're the town's healer.

Apprentice - Weak Doctor. You help the Apothecary out, but if you accidentally try to treat a familiar you're overwhelmed by dark magic and die.

Golem - CPR Doctor. You were built by the Apothecary to help out.  When you have an actually sick patient, your gruff manner does the trick, but if you try to administer to the well, you tend to crush them by accident

Alchemist - Quack Doctor. You tricked the king into thinking you could turn lead into Gold. You also tricked him into thinking you could heal people. Neither of those things is true. You invariably kill your patients.

Possessor - Paranoid Doctor. You can take over someone's body for the night, keeping them from doing anything (and, for some reason, keeping them safe from harm).

Stoned Philosopher - Naive Doctor.  You consider yourself a healer of the mind and soul. And maybe you are. But when you try to heal someone's body, nothing happens.

Herbalist - Nurse. You take over for the first Apothecary to die. It's your big break!

Familiar - Mafia Goon. Cats that turn into people? People that turn into cats? Either way they have powerful black magic they'll use at night to kill hardworking apothecaries.

WHOA guys somehow we lost the whole OP. Have hap-hazardly reconstructed it, but much was lost that should not have been forgotten.

[Robz888]

I am in.

[Galzria]

In

[O]

Damnit, I wanted fire/ice so badly

/in anyways.

[O]

I am in.

No.

Vote:Robz888

[Galzria]

I am in.

Damn. Beaten by 35 seconds. Is that how long it took you to log out of Robz and into Galzria to sign-up twice?

[jotheonah]

But fire and ice wouldn't hav allowed for my all-alchemy theming, of which I am quite proud.

[Robz888]

I am in.

Damn. Beaten by 35 seconds. Is that how long it took you to log out of Robz and into Galzria to sign-up twice?

I got lucky! I have been away all day and I just came back and there it is!

[Voltgloss]

Love the Dominion theming, J. 

I would love to be in but I know that I'm going to be very busy over the coming couple of weeks.  Modding Mafia IV may be all I can handle (once Mafia III ends).  I'll know a bit better over the next couple of days.  If I miss out on this one, I'll still definitely be watching from the sidelines with great interest.

Speaking of which.  Will there be a discussion thread for this?  I would prefer a quicktopic to an on-the-board thread.

[jotheonah]

Unless there are overwhelming objections, there will be a QT which dead apothecaries will be permitted to join.

And thanks V, coming from you that means a lot.

[eHalcyon]

jo is not actually going to determine the role distribution ahead of time.  He will watch who targets whom and then manipulate the distribution to maximize deaths on night 1. 

Won't join because I think this will be too head-hurty for me.  Very interested in how it will play out though!

[Voltgloss]

A few rules questions:

1.  Herbalist doesn't know the sanity of the Apothecary inherited, right?  He just inherits "a protection ability" without knowing what it does?  (If so, Herbalist Role PM looks like it may need tweaking.  I expect you are using the role PMs from the mafiascum wiki article, but I think that article has the Nurse/Herbalist PM wrong - at least in the context of Medical Mafia.)

2.  I assume if an Apothecary (of any sanity) is lynched Day 1, the Herbalist inherits his power.  Can the Herbalist then use that power during Night 1?

3.  If Day 1 ends in a Familiar lynch (or no-lynch), and then multiple Apothecaries die during Night 1, how is it determined which dead Apothecary's power is inherited by the Herbalist?  (Random roll?)

4.  Apprentice targets Familiar.  True Apothecary targets Apprentice.  No one else targets the Apprentice.  Does the Apprentice die? 

5.  Apprentice targets Familiar.  Golem targets Apprentice.  No one else targets the Apprentice.  Does the Apprentice die? 

6.  Golem targets X.  True Apothecary targets X.  No one else targets X.  Does X die?

7.  Golem targets X.  True Apothecary targets X.  Alchemist targets X.  No one else targets X.  Does X die?

[jotheonah]

A few rules questions:

1.  Herbalist doesn't know the sanity of the Apothecary inherited, right?  He just inherits "a protection ability" without knowing what it does?  (If so, Herbalist Role PM looks like it may need tweaking.  I expect you are using the role PMs from the mafiascum wiki article, but I think that article has the Nurse/Herbalist PM wrong - at least in the context of Medical Mafia.)

Right, doesn't get to know. Fixed in OP.

2.  I assume if an Apothecary (of any sanity) is lynched Day 1, the Herbalist inherits his power.  Can the Herbalist then use that power during Night 1?

Yeppers.

3.  If Day 1 ends in a Familiar lynch (or no-lynch), and then multiple Apothecaries die during Night 1, how is it determined which dead Apothecary's power is inherited by the Herbalist?  (Random roll?)

I will determine it, either randomly or based on whimsy.

4.  Apprentice targets Familiar.  True Apothecary targets Apprentice.  No one else targets the Apprentice.  Does the Apprentice die? 

Nope.

5.  Apprentice targets Familiar.  Golem targets Apprentice.  No one else targets the Apprentice.  Does the Apprentice die? 

Nope. Here and above the question is "Does the Apprentice's death from killing a mafia count as a nightkill?" I am ruling that it does.

6.  Golem targets X.  True Apothecary targets X.  No one else targets X.  Does X die?

No.

7.  Golem targets X.  True Apothecary targets X.  Alchemist targets X.  No one else targets X.  Does X die?

No. For simplicity's sake, a Golem WILL NOT KILL a player who was targeted for a nightkill, either by the Familiars or the Alchemist, or in the case of the Apprentice, sort of by himself, reflexively.

I'll resolve night actions in this order.
1) Possession
2) Familiar Kill
3) Alchemist Kill
4) Apprentice Save/Self-kill
5) Golem Save/Kill
6) Apothecary Save

This means if the Familiars target X and the Golem saves X, but the Familiar who executes the kill is Possessed, the Golem will kill X after all. If the Apprentice targets a Possessed Familiar he won't die, either, because his save, and therefore his self-kill will fail.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I'll play.

[ftl]

When does this start? If it starts on or after the 17th, I'm in, that's when I get back from Europe. If it starts before then, I'll have to just spectate this one too.

[yuma]

I will reply with a tentative in.

[Captain_Frisk]

Definite In.

[Galzria]

With this list of players I might NEED a sanity check by the time we're through.

[jotheonah]

When does this start? If it starts on or after the 17th, I'm in, that's when I get back from Europe. If it starts before then, I'll have to just spectate this one too.

I don't see it starting much before the 17th. Maybe like a day before, but you'll be able to jump in without too much backlog.

[Insomniac]

Vote: Robz I mean in

[zxcvbn2]

I'd love to play though I'll admit I've not played this game in a forum before. This cool?

[jotheonah]

zxcvbn2 - We would be glad to have you. Just know that these games inevitably eat way more of your time than you expect.

[zxcvbn2]

Yeah, I'm cool with the time commitment.

[jotheonah]

Ok, so we have 9 now, assuming that we don't start until the 17th and yuma's tentative in is a real in.  If someone else is dying to play, speak now and I'll put you on the waiting list. That way if we need a replacement later we won't have to wait.  MIII should be waking up today and their game might not last much longer, so we could be underway soon. I already wrote the opening flavor and I'm pretty psyched about it, actually.

[Voltgloss]

You can put me down for the replacement list.  I'll be following along anyway.

[yuma]

I am a real in

[Insomniac]

Side note going back to my policy of lynch Robz first, can't trust that guy

jotheonah: pregame mafia V: VOTE: ROBZ (I'll cross post as well)

[jotheonah]

Bastard Mafia will be completely ignored, and any mention of it will bring shame upon your family.

SHAME: INSOMNIAC'S FAMILY

[Robz888]

TRUST: NO ONE

[Galzria]

TRUST: NO ONE

All you people and your Meta-Gaming.

I start out trusting everybody, no matter what.

[jotheonah]

but srsly, let's not clutter this space up more than necessary. We'll start soon enough. I've already written Day 1's flavor, so I'm itching to start.

[Insomniac]

Bastard Mafia will be completely ignored, and any mention of it will bring shame upon your family.

SHAME: INSOMNIAC'S FAMILY

By knowing where it came from and by referencing my post you indirectly referenced BM. Not to mention you explicitly mention it here and in your opening post, therefore
SHAME: JOTHEONAH'S FAMILY

[Galzria]

but srsly, let's not clutter this space up more than necessary. We'll start soon enough. I've already written Day 1's flavor, so I'm itching to start.

Actually, on that note, I'm willing to delete any/all pregame posts at the mods request.

[jotheonah]

I don't think that's necessary Galz. But it's y'all who will have to slog through them come game start.

So, thread is effectively locked. Unless you have a real question/concern about the game.

[jotheonah]

Role PMs will be out by 10 p.m. at the latest (I'm at work now). Day 1 will begin when everyone confirms.

[jotheonah]

Role PMs are out. Please confirm in thread that you've received yours.

[Galzria]

Received.

[Robz888]

Received.

[zxcvbn2]

Received.

[Captain_Frisk]

Received, but I think I got RobZ's. 

[Insomniac]

Recieved

[ftl]

Received, but I think I got RobZ's.

Let's hope nobody from the Bastard Mafia reads this post.... 
Also, received.

[yuma]

received

[Thisisnotasmile]

Got mine.

[jotheonah]

We're just waiting for O.

A spectator QT has been started. PM me for the url. Don't make Voltgloss hang out there alone.

[O]

damnit, hate these confirming things.

Confirm that I'm Mafia Goon some unspecified townie role

[jotheonah]

All the physicians in the kingdom of Effdotdeus look forward every year to the Apotheconference, where they can get together and share secrets of their trade. This year was no different. The town's deft Apothecary, his trusty Herbalist and faint-hearted Apprentice, and his faithful but clumsy Golem were on the guest list, as was the Alchemist who claimed he was a doctor, the mystic who claimed he could Possess people, and the Philosopher who claimed … a lot of things. But paid a few too many visits to the Herbalist, if you catch my drift.

Yes, they all turned up to the Vineyards behind the University, where the annual event was hosted by University Chancellor Jotheonah.  A table was set with nametags for all of them and a bowl of delicious-looking punch.

But just before the guests arrived, two jet black cats appeared.  One held a vial, a strange Potion, in it's mouth, and somehow uncorked the mixture with its tail and poured it into the punch bowl. The other simply knocked the nametags into the mud.

When the guests arrived, they made do without nametags, and they themselves with two more strangers in their midst, new Apothecaries, they assumed, just moved to town. The Alchemist entertained the crowd by Transmuting people's pocket change into “Actions” but it wasn't a very good trick. Since no one knew what an Action was supposed to be, he just ended up disappearing with their money. But what was wrong with this punch? It was making everything so foggy...

“Welcome, welcome,” said the Chancellor. “Why aren't any of you wearing your nametags?”

“There were no nametags!” the guests replied.

“Well, that won't do,” said the Chancellor, “Tell me who you are and I'll make some new ones. How about you?”

The man stopped. He thought. But try as he might, he couldn't remember who he was!

“Oh dear,” said the Chancellor. “Let me just consult my trusty Scrying Pool.”

He looked into an ornate bird bath for a moment, then looked up again at the crowd.

“I'm sorry to say that in order to book the conference, I had to ask our town Witch to reschedule her coven meeting, normally held in this very Vineyard! She didn't take it well. I think it's very likely that her Familiars have infiltrated the conference in human form, and spiked the punch with a powerful memory Potion! To get the antidote we'll likely have to find and kill the Familiars. Until then, we won't be able to figure out who's who! Luckily, I didn't happen to drink any of that punch, so, tell you what, I'll nip off and find the old bat, try to set things straight, you all stay here, enjoy the refreshments, and try to catch those Familiars!”

And with that the old man disappeared.

DAY 1 HAS BEGUN. Deadline is July 4th at Midnight, EST

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: zxcvbn2 for never playing with us before

[O]

VOTE: Captain Frisk because no matter what he always seems scummy to me.

[Galzria]

vote: Galzria just to get any and all crazy out of the game now.

[ftl]

I see this game is proceeding Chicago-style - vote early, vote often!

Vote: Captain_Frisk for voting for a newbie. Don't discourage newbies!

[ftl]

With 9 playing, it takes 5 to lynch, I believe? Just putting that out there since it wasn't officially moderatedly stated.

[ftl]

Oh, and one more post: according to the flavor, it seems like we're guaranteed to have one of each possible apothecary role, and are not playing with a random selection of possible roles like previous Mafia games here have been. Is that correct?

[Galzria]

I see this game is proceeding Chicago-style - vote early, vote often!

Vote: Captain_Frisk for voting for a newbie. Don't discourage newbies!

Ahh, good 'ol home town voting style. I like it. By the way, I created a potion that let's me vote after death, even if I'm buried in a neighboring Vineyard like Indiana - it works by keeping my registrar open in this Vineyard, which doesn't share records with that Vineyard. So while I may be dead there, I can still vote here. Yessir. It's true.

[Robz888]

Anyone want to suggest whether they think we should use our doctor powers in the night at all, given we may simply kill our targets?

[O]

Anyone want to suggest whether they think we should use our doctor powers in the night at all, given we may simply kill our targets?

I think we should all agree to target the same person in the night, just to see what happens.

[ftl]

I believe that if we all target the same person, they get jailed and nothing happens to them.

Presumably, we should use our powers, and hopefully we can figure out what some of them are and use them to the town's benefit?

I thought about publicly discussing night targets, but that seems like it would be a bad idea, then the mafia could easily mislead us all. Those who survive at night should probably discuss who they targeted, though, but that's for day 2 and not day 1.

[jotheonah]

With 9 playing, it takes 5 to lynch, I believe? Just putting that out there since it wasn't officially moderatedly stated.

With 9 playing, it takes 5 to lynch. Sorry your mod is a newb.

Oh, and one more post: according to the flavor, it seems like we're guaranteed to have one of each possible apothecary role, and are not playing with a random selection of possible roles like previous Mafia games here have been. Is that correct?

There are exactly nine pre-defined roles in this game. No surprises. Except that Apothecaries are revealed upon death only as Apothecaries.

The only pro-town person who knows anything about their own role is the Herbalist.

[zxcvbn2]

Vote: zxcvbn2 for never playing with us before

 

/runsandhides

/comesbacksuspiciouslyeyeingCaptainFrisk

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: zxcvbn2 for never playing with us before

 

/runsandhides

/comesbacksuspiciouslyeyeingCaptainFrisk

Unvote and Welcome!

As for what to do, my assumption is that we want to take the same approach that is used for "solving" dethy.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis

To alleviate confusion, we could order our names and all agree to perform our night actions on whoever is to next higher in the list.... so person #1 does night action on person #2, etc. etc. with person #9 acting on person#1.  This should result in 2 night kills (CPR doctor + Mafia Kill), but might be higher or lower depending on jailkeeping / apprentice / real doctoring.

[zxcvbn2]

Vote: zxcvbn2 for never playing with us before

 

/runsandhides

/comesbacksuspiciouslyeyeingCaptainFrisk

Unvote and Welcome!

As for what to do, my assumption is that we want to take the same approach that is used for "solving" dethy.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis

To alleviate confusion, we could order our names and all agree to perform our night actions on whoever is to next higher in the list.... so person #1 does night action on person #2, etc. etc. with person #9 acting on person#1.  This should result in 2 night kills (CPR doctor + Mafia Kill), but might be higher or lower depending on jailkeeping / apprentice / real doctoring.

I think this would definitely result in 3 night kills (Alchemist/Quack Doctor kills whoever he targets regardless). And potentially a fourth if the Apprentice targets a familiar. Not to mention this is only helpful if the Mafia kill who they say they're going to, but you knew that already.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think this would definitely result in 3 night kills (Alchemist/Quack Doctor kills whoever he targets regardless). And potentially a fourth if the Apprentice targets a familiar. Not to mention this is only helpful if the Mafia kill who they say they're going to, but you knew that already.

Doh!  Somehow missed the quack (vig).

[Insomniac]

Roleclaim: Jester

[Galzria]

Roleclaim: Jester

He's lying. I'm Jester. Lynch all Liars.

[Insomniac]

I would be ok with that turn of events

[Galzria]

I would be ok with that turn of events

No, you lynch counter-claims first. Don't you know Mafia rules?

[Insomniac]

I would be ok with that turn of events

No, you lynch counter-claims first. Don't you know Mafia rules?

Not Jesters too risky to lynch counter-claim .

Wait I want robz to vote for me so....

[Robz888]

If you quote an emoticon it counts. I see 6 emoticons in the last 8 posts, people. I'm not happy.

[Robz888]

Oh GOD. I literally did not see that post from Insomniac yet.

[Robz888]

Hate hate hate. But you know I hate it, so it's meaningless when you do it.

Zxc, though....

[Insomniac]

Haha I noticed the emoticon trend so I wanted to put em all in there. In all serious notes though, SUSPICIOUS OF EVERYONE, I hear in this land even doctors can kill you

[Galzria]

If you quote an emoticon it counts. I see 6 emoticons in the last 8 posts, people. I'm not happy.

"If you quote an emoticon it counts" - Ha! +1 for the laugh. Now I have a new task. Only quote posts that contain emoticons (but never use them myself).

[Insomniac]

Forgot I said I was doing this
Vote: Robz

UNVOTE

I never said I'd leave it there

[Insomniac]

@Frisk: The problem with the idea is that the mafia won't follow it and thusly you won't know that much. Not to mention the doctors that target mafia just die.

@O: The real doctor(s) would save that person

[Captain_Frisk]

@Frisk: The problem with the idea is that the mafia won't follow it and thusly you won't know that much. Not to mention the doctors that target mafia just die.

@O: The real doctor(s) would save that person

The alternative is random chaos?  I'm going through the math in my head, but you know we're all going to use our doctor powers tonight.  Might as well have some control / pre knowledge of what happened, because the dead won't be able to tell us tomorrow.

[Insomniac]

@Frisk: The problem with the idea is that the mafia won't follow it and thusly you won't know that much. Not to mention the doctors that target mafia just die.

@O: The real doctor(s) would save that person

The alternative is random chaos?  I'm going through the math in my head, but you know we're all going to use our doctor powers tonight.  Might as well have some control / pre knowledge of what happened, because the dead won't be able to tell us tomorrow.

Well there is exactly one herbalist that has no power until someone dies. With the herbalist they will be able to reveal the role of the first non mafia person who dies if it would be beneficial, as well as knowing what power they have. So I guess that would be a roleclaim, not sure if thats the best or not, but throwin it out there.

It's not necessarily random chaos anymore so than any other mafia game though just more people with abilities

[Insomniac]

1. Apothecary (Doctor) - You are the village's true healer, anyone you target at night will be prevented from a (single) night kill.

2. Familiar

3. Golem (CPR Doctor) - A lumbering brute, you were built by the Apothecary to help heal patients, and when you get a really sick patient your gruff manner pays off. But when you accidentally target the healthy, your superhuman strength becomes a liability and ... you tend to crush them.

4. Possessor (Paranoid Doctor) - A friend of the Apothecary, you have the power to take over a person's body for a night, keeping them from doing whatever they would be doing. You are the functional equivalent of a jailkeeper.

5. Alchemist (Quack Doctor) - You've convinced the king you can turn lead into Gold with just a little more funding. In the meantime, you've convinced him to employ you as a healer. Unfortunately, you don't exactly have much training... You kill whomever you target to heal.

6. Stoned Philosopher (Naive Doctor) - In your philosophic contemplations, you think yourself a doctor, a healer of not the body, but the mind and soul. But in fact, you're a useless stoner and your night action does nothing at all.

7. Familiar

8.Apprentice (Weak Doctor) - You are the village's healer's assistant, and unfortunately the Familiars in the mafia don't respect you at all or feel they need you. If you unwittingly attempt to heal one of them, they'll straight kill you, not to mention cursing you and drawing a card.

9. Herbalist

For the sake of argument

Assume that this is the layout randomly proposed
9. does nothing.
8. Dies by targeting familiar raising suspicion of 9.
7 does what it wants.
6. Does nothing
5. kills 4 raising suspicion of 5
4. Stops 3 from killing 2
3. Jailed
2. Does what it wants.
1. Prevents 9 from dying.

Now assume that the familiars kill 1. Assume we lynch town today

Then on day 2, 2 Mafia, 4 Town and we're down our actual doc. Not odds Im super keen on

[jotheonah]

Vote Count


Captain_Frisk [2] - O, ftl
Galzria [1] - Galzria

not voting - Robz888, Thisisnotasmile, yuma, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, zxcvbn2

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Robz888]

Tonight is going to be a blood bath, and the mafia are going to win quickly, I suspect.

That's why I would actually counsel NOT using our powers tonight and instead concentrating on lynching mafia today and tomorrow. Which, you know, is almost never done successfully in any mafia game, but we can try.

[Insomniac]

Also there is much worse odds then those that I pointed out. Like the Golem could kill town, and the best suspicions we have would be mostly town

[Insomniac]

I agree with Robz at least for night 1.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I'm also up for not killing people accidentally.

[ftl]

That's why I would actually counsel NOT using our powers tonight and instead concentrating on lynching mafia today and tomorrow. Which, you know, is almost never done successfully in any mafia game, but we can try.

If we don't use our powers, what we have is Mafia II: nobody ever has any real info all game, we thrash around talking about nothing for twenty pages, and probably never lynch a mafia. I believe that of all the successful lynches in all the mafia games on this board so far, only one has been done without direct help from a power role? Or something like that?

I agree with Robz at least for night 1.

I'm also up for not killing people accidentally.

Will we know something more about our powers after one night of not using them that'll make using them night 2 any less random and accidental, or any more likely to hit mafia?

[Thisisnotasmile]

I never said I wasn't going to use my power, just that I agree we shouldn't kill people accidentally

[Robz888]

That's why I would actually counsel NOT using our powers tonight and instead concentrating on lynching mafia today and tomorrow. Which, you know, is almost never done successfully in any mafia game, but we can try.

If we don't use our powers, what we have is Mafia II: nobody ever has any real info all game, we thrash around talking about nothing for twenty pages, and probably never lynch a mafia. I believe that of all the successful lynches in all the mafia games on this board so far, only one has been done without direct help from a power role? Or something like that?

I agree with Robz at least for night 1.

I'm also up for not killing people accidentally.

Will we know something more about our powers after one night of not using them that'll make using them night 2 any less random and accidental, or any more likely to hit mafia?

I guess that's a valid point.

[Insomniac]

That's why I would actually counsel NOT using our powers tonight and instead concentrating on lynching mafia today and tomorrow. Which, you know, is almost never done successfully in any mafia game, but we can try.

If we don't use our powers, what we have is Mafia II: nobody ever has any real info all game, we thrash around talking about nothing for twenty pages, and probably never lynch a mafia. I believe that of all the successful lynches in all the mafia games on this board so far, only one has been done without direct help from a power role? Or something like that?

I agree with Robz at least for night 1.

I'm also up for not killing people accidentally.

Will we know something more about our powers after one night of not using them that'll make using them night 2 any less random and accidental, or any more likely to hit mafia?

I guess that's a valid point.

No it isn't there is a herbalist, the herbalist knows exactly what its power is when it gets one

[Thisisnotasmile]

the herbalist knows exactly what its power is when it gets one

No (s)he does not.

[Insomniac]

"THE CATCH IS the Apothecaries, other than the Herbalist (Nurse) will not know their sanities, nor will they be revealed on death."

Other than the nurse/herbalist, the herbalist knows what it does

[Thisisnotasmile]

The Herbalist knows it takes on the role of the first person to die. It does not know what that role is. This was cleared up in the first page of this thread, however I would welcome it being re-cleared up if possible.

[ftl]

This was asked, I believe, on the first page of the thread.

A few rules questions:

1.  Herbalist doesn't know the sanity of the Apothecary inherited, right?  He just inherits "a protection ability" without knowing what it does?  (If so, Herbalist Role PM looks like it may need tweaking.  I expect you are using the role PMs from the mafiascum wiki article, but I think that article has the Nurse/Herbalist PM wrong - at least in the context of Medical Mafia.)

Right, doesn't get to know. Fixed in OP.

[jotheonah]

Sorry for the confusion. The passage Insomniac quoted is a little misleading.

The Herbalist knows they are the Herbalist. However they will not know the sanity of their inherited power any more than anyone else in the game.

[O]

Town are actually 5-1 with this set-up

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Medical_Mafia#History

[ftl]

Oh, good call. Ima do some research now and see how Town won those.

[Galzria]

O is being... Uncannily helpful for D1.

Bad O. Stop it. Do I need to random vote based on timestamp?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh, good call. Ima do some research now and see how Town won those.

Briefscan: It looks like only the last 1 had a night 1 bloodbath:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=21496

Maybe my idea not so good afterall?

[ftl]

Yeah, it looks like it's very high variance, there was one with a bloodbath (4 nightkills!) and two with no night 1 deaths at all (actually makes sense, with so many docs around...)

Most of those games didn't pre-agree on who to target, though one did (and not the bloodbath one).

[yuma]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=21496

I like post 21 in this. Perhaps we should start a Mafia game here were everyone has to write in prose. Wouldn't that be fun for Galzria's essays? Who knows... he could be the next Shakespeare!

[Thisisnotasmile]

prose/prōz/Noun:      Written or spoken language in its ordinary form, without metrical structure.

[Galzria]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=21496

I like post 21 in this. Perhaps we should start a Mafia game here were everyone has to write in prose. Wouldn't that be fun for Galzria's essays? Who knows... he could be the next Shakespeare!

I spent close to ten years performing on stage. I grew up in the Michigan/Illinois area, and traveled up to Stratford in Canada every year to attend their Shakespeare festival (Along with the Festival in Oregon, they're some of the largest and most well known outside of the Globe Theatre in London). So... yeah. Can do.

[O]

O is being... Uncannily helpful for D1.

Bad O. Stop it. Do I need to random vote based on timestamp?

Do I really need to add more chaos to this setup?

[ftl]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=21496

I like post 21 in this. Perhaps we should start a Mafia game here were everyone has to write in prose. Wouldn't that be fun for Galzria's essays? Who knows... he could be the next Shakespeare!

I spent close to ten years performing on stage. I grew up in the Michigan/Illinois area, and traveled up to Stratford in Canada every year to attend their Shakespeare festival (Along with the Festival in Oregon, they're some of the largest and most well known outside of the Globe Theatre in London). So... yeah. Can do.

Eh, don't do it!

It obscures what you're trying to say, which is helpful for Mafia and not Town... Gives convenient excuses for content-less posts and lurking, etc etc etc. Diverts attention to style rather than substance, even more than typical Mafia games do!

Suspicion on Yuma for suggesting it in the first place. Considering in that game, the poet was the mafia!

O is being... Uncannily helpful for D1.

Bad O. Stop it. Do I need to random vote based on timestamp?

Do I really need to add more chaos to this setup?

I don't think you do, unless you think it'll help you find a Mafia day 1. Because nobody's been so good at that yet...

[Galzria]

O is being... Uncannily helpful for D1.

Bad O. Stop it. Do I need to random vote based on timestamp?

Do I really need to add more chaos to this setup?

[yuma]

prose/prōz/Noun:      Written or spoken language in its ordinary form, without metrical structure.

Wish I had use of the edit button, as such, thanks for the correction

[Insomniac]

But O your town play is unrivaled and now your changing it

Vote: O

Why change a good thing if your not mafia?

[O]

But O your town play is unrivaled and now your changing it

Vote: O

Why change a good thing if your not mafia?

I'll take it as a compliment  .

Because my town play is "unrivaled" in normal setups, not necessarily nutty setUps.

Plus it's tiring....

[zxcvbn2]

So is there something of a plan at this point? Are we using our roles, or just hiding, or does nobody have any idea yet?

Just posting because it kind of died here.

[Captain_Frisk]

So is there something of a plan at this point? Are we using our roles, or just hiding, or does nobody have any idea yet?

Just posting because it kind of died here.

I tend to think that the night powers should be used, and that we should claim in advance who we used them on, so that when people die, we can start to piece what happened together.  For example, the weak doctor's "power" is damn near useless if we don't know who he targeted when he dies.  Whether that means we intentionally stack up multiple people on 1 person to maximize chance of real doctor protection, or we spread out to maximize the information gained, I don't know.

I tried to model out the probabilities of how many Town / Mafia kills we might have if we no-lynched and each did our night action on the person to our left and it got ugly really quickly.  Looking purely at CPR doctor & Vig Equivalent, I'm pretty confident that we have at least a 39% chance of killing 1 mafia with that approach.  On the other hand, we have at least a 34% chance of killing 2 towns.

[Robz888]

My instinct was for us to not do anything in the night, but a brief glimpse at those other games and it looks like we should just go wild and try to piece things together tomorrow.

[Galzria]

I don't know what to do here honestly... Inn reading and listening closely though trying to figure it out.

In the meantime our Mod failed by not working this into his opening flavor setup:

 

[Insomniac]

I'm pretty unsure about what we should do now since I thought the herbalist was gonna be able to get information.

UNVOTE

I'm not convinced that O isn't playing this game differently because he's mafia but I want to see more of what non-troll O looks like in mafia.

[ftl]

Definitely using our roles.

Undecided as whether to predetermine who targets who; not sure either way.

Advantages of spreading out predetermined targets: slightly more info when somebody dies. But it's only slightly, since Mafia will mess with the spread. How much more info this is depends on how many people die, the more of a bloodbath we get the more a predetermined target helps.
Advantages of not publicly disclosing targets: Mafia are shooting in the dark and we might save somebody from a Mafia kill, we do have a few real doctors around!

And yeah, the thread went silent. We all had a few posts, I guess nothing jumped out at anybody as scummy, so nobody posted about it, which sucks. I'm starting to accumulate minor things to call reads/scumtells for doing this the old-fashioned way, good 'ol scumhunting work, but nothing definitive of course. I'd lean town for zxc and O. Insomniac has minor scumtells but meh, not putting my vote there.

vote: yuma

[Thisisnotasmile]

Okay, I'll do it. No mafia is complete without it:

1 - Robz888
2 - Galzria
3 - O
4 - Thisisnotasmile
5 - ftl
6 - yuma
7 - Captain_Frisk
8 - Insomniac
9 - zxcvbn2

0 - O... Because they look the same and also because he didn't do it

[Thisisnotasmile]

vote: ftl

[Galzria]

vote: ftl

Ah, life makes sense again.

[Captain_Frisk]

vote: ftl

Vote: ftl. 

Because i'm jumping on the wagon, and he was quick to use any excuse to vote for me.

[jotheonah]

A few of you decide you can deduce who the Golem is by checking in each others' heads for pieces of paper. There is quite a bit of excitement when a piece of paper is found stuck to the back of ftl's head! But it turns out it's just one of the missing nametags, too muddy to read. Galzria looks around at the town and proclaims "My brain hurts."

Vote Count


Captain_Frisk [1] - O
Galzria [1] - Galzria
ftl [2] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk
yuma[1] - ftl

not voting - Robz888, yuma, Insomniac, zxcvbn2

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[ftl]

Ohhhh I feel slow. That was a random vote by TINAS. I stared at that post for a long time wondering why O was on his suspicion list twice, and why he voted for me even though I was 5th on his list... it all makes sense now, TINAS is trying to be O. It fits.

[O]

Random voting hits FTL twice?

It must be a sign... *twitches* arrggggghhhhhh *poof of smoke, transformation*

I AM O

Vote:FTL

[Insomniac]

Random voting hits FTL twice?

It must be a sign... *twitches* arrggggghhhhhh *poof of smoke, transformation*

I AM O

Vote:FTL

So your going back to Mafia 1,3,4 O?

[O]

Each O is a unique and special O, IDK what you're talking about.

[Insomniac]

Each O is a unique and special O, IDK what you're talking about.

You'll get nothing and like it.

Vote: OTINAS

[yuma]

And yeah, the thread went silent. We all had a few posts, I guess nothing jumped out at anybody as scummy, so nobody posted about it, which sucks. I'm starting to accumulate minor things to call reads/scumtells for doing this the old-fashioned way, good 'ol scumhunting work, but nothing definitive of course. I'd lean town for zxc and O. Insomniac has minor scumtells but meh, not putting my vote there.
vote: yuma

I take it your vote for me was based on ... Actually I can't tell since you didn't mention me at all beside the vote. Hopefully it is intended to illicit a response from me since I have been a bit quite. Good job. I you got a response. On that note: I should let everyone know I will be gone from this upcoming Wednesday through Saturday--I volunteer with the Boy Scouts and were are going on a river trip.

I am a bit curious--not necessarily suspicious yet--of Galz and Robz. Both are a bit more quiet then they were in Mafia III. In that game they were talking a lot even when there was nothing to talk about. (And I know I am doing exactly what I complained about in Mafia III, referencing previous games... my bad.)

[Galzria]

I disagree.

[Insomniac]

Galzria and Robz talk when they're mafia, they talk when they're not, the amount they talk isn't a good guage of whether or not they're mafia IMO.

Important note, I'm going to a GP this weekend for magic so will probably check far less as of 2pm PDT today until Monday. I'll still try to get on here and post but I can't promise much this weekend

[jotheonah]

The next attempt is to determine the identity of the Alchemist. Everyone grabs a piece of lead and starts trying to turn it into Gold.  Twenty minutes later, someone remembers that the actual Alchemist still hadn't figured that one out...

Vote Count


Galzria [1] - Galzria
ftl [3] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O
yuma[1] - ftl
Thisisnotasmile[1] - Insomniac

not voting - Robz888, yuma, zxcvbn2

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[zxcvbn2]

Vote: O

Mostly because I think it's been too long without voting.

[Robz888]

Yuma, since you bring up MIII...... you were the only mafia I didn't pick out at any point in the game. Nice job.

What's your plan in this game?

[ftl]

And the town grows silent again, with nothing going on. There's a bandwagon on me of size 3 (L-2), with one being demonstrably random and one being flimsy, and one being a claimed trollvote. Time to poke around some more.

O is conveniently switching back between troll and non-troll whenever it suits him; like, to make a wagon happen. Hmm...

vote: O

[O]

And the town grows silent again, with nothing going on. There's a bandwagon on me of size 3 (L-2), with one being demonstrably random and one being flimsy, and one being a claimed trollvote. Time to poke around some more.

O is conveniently switching back between troll and non-troll whenever it suits him; like, to make a wagon happen. Hmm...

vote: O

OMGUS? Definitely OMGUS.

[zxcvbn2]

And the town grows silent again, with nothing going on. There's a bandwagon on me of size 3 (L-2), with one being demonstrably random and one being flimsy, and one being a claimed trollvote. Time to poke around some more.

O is conveniently switching back between troll and non-troll whenever it suits him; like, to make a wagon happen. Hmm...

vote: O

OMGUS? Definitely OMGUS.

Wait, you're military as well? What kind of code can he be trying to send? Definitely mafia.

[O]

And the town grows silent again, with nothing going on. There's a bandwagon on me of size 3 (L-2), with one being demonstrably random and one being flimsy, and one being a claimed trollvote. Time to poke around some more.

O is conveniently switching back between troll and non-troll whenever it suits him; like, to make a wagon happen. Hmm...

vote: O

OMGUS? Definitely OMGUS.

Wait, you're military as well? What kind of code can he be trying to send? Definitely mafia.

I believe I wanted the second google result

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Oh_My_God_You_Suck

[Thisisnotasmile]

Surely that would be OMGYS?

[Galzria]

ITT: A Bastard game of regular Mafia.

[Thisisnotasmile]

It's not really regular mafia though, is it? Most of us have a night role that can do absolutely anything and we have no way to find out until the game is over.

[Galzria]

It's not really regular mafia though, is it? Most of us have a night role that can do absolutely anything and we have no way to find out until the game is over.

This is true. So maybe we should just get a move on to N1 and roll the dice.

[Galzria]

Vote: ftl

This bandwagon looks good. It's going further than the one my last vote was on.

[Captain_Frisk]

ftl - do you have any roleclaims to make?  You are at L-1 and I understand this is where you do something bold, like tell us all you are the doctor so we don't lynch you.

[jotheonah]

Finally, the frustrated town turns to familiar-hunting. "ftl kind of looks like a cat!" says O. "Well O kind of smells like one!" ftl replies.

Vote Count


ftl [4] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O, Galzria
Thisisnotasmile[1] - Insomniac
O[2] - zxcvbn2, ftl

not voting - Robz888, yuma

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[yuma]

I feel like I am missing something.... Why does ftl have 4 votes on him? What did he do to cause that sort of reaction?

And from what I further understand isn't the only role that he can claim that we can pinpoint down is nurse? If he claims apothecary, well then all the rest of us are apothecaries, so isn't that just like claiming town?

Let me know if I am missing something.

Robz: In Mafia III I had no strategy. It was my first game and I didn't really know what I was doing. It worked apparently but obviously showed with my one-shot vig claim. My strategy for this game? Again I don't think I have one.

As and aside I was never able to answer what my real life status is because you (still talking to Robz here) died before I was able to. I think it is awesome that you and jot have been able to make it as journalists. I have a mass comm degree but struggled to find a job so I am back to school to be a medical laboratory scientist. Who do you guys write for?

[O]

Buying a hammerer, will provide nails...

[Insomniac]

Buying a hammerer, will provide nails...

Vote:O

It's Actually a wagon and he was playing different and ftl is a bad lynch

[ftl]

ftl - do you have any roleclaims to make?  You are at L-1 and I understand this is where you do something bold, like tell us all you are the doctor so we don't lynch you.

I'm a doctor/apothecary.

That doesn't mean much, because the only actual roleclaim around here is Nurse/Herbalist. So "I'm a doctor" is the new "I'm VT". Except not even that bad, because in terms of losing power roles, even if Mafia kill the Herbalist, we still have the same number of power roles we did before.

I feel like I am missing something.... Why does ftl have 4 votes on him? What did he do to cause that sort of reaction?

Not sure. Vote 1 was C_F voting for me, because I was quick to vote for him. TINAS voted for me with a random, and then O decided to revert back to troll and make vote three, because of TINAS's random number generator. Then Galzria jumped on because... because  I voted for O, I guess?

And from what I further understand isn't the only role that he can claim that we can pinpoint down is nurse? If he claims apothecary, well then all the rest of us are apothecaries, so isn't that just like claiming town?

Yes, I think so.


gimme a bit before anyone hammers me. Still have stuff to say. Analyzing.

[ftl]

To expand on the Herbalist, the only power the Herbalist has that the rest of us don't is being able to claim to avoid a lynch. If we lynch a mafia D1, then herbalist is the one with a boring night; if we mislynch, then they're just a doc with a name.

I guess all there really is to analyze vote-wise so far is wagon 1, on me. Some RVS prodding, and then O and Galz making it into a real wagon.

I'm happy with my vote where it is, on O. I've jumped around enough with my vote. He seems to want to turn it into a real lynch rather than an information-gathering wagon. We've got plenty of time, no need to hurry a d1 lynch. "Buying a hammerer"? "OMGUS"?

[Galzria]

Boy did it go dead in here. Busy weekend for all you Apothecaries too?

[ftl]

Not really busy for me! But I thought I'd give someone else a chance to respond before making my doublepost a triplepost.

We've got time, there's like another week and a few days until lynchdeadline. Still, I'd rather have an active Town. Maybe this means we have lurker Mafia? I guess that was argued about in a different Mafia, but I can't really make much of it because I don't know who's actually who there!

[jotheonah]

We try not to talk about currently ongoing games in other games. Finished ones are fine.

[Captain_Frisk]

Boy did it go dead in here. Busy weekend for all you Apothecaries too?

I don't know about the others, but this strange game leaves me with uncertainty re: how to play.  The standard Lynch vs. no Lynch debate for example... feels like one that I don't know how to answer.  After reading about Dethy - i tend to think that we need to isolate our powers - and then use them, but because some of our powers are destructive, it seems pretty dangerous.

That - and the weekend was pretty busy.  Golf takes alot longer when you take 110 strokes and spend most of your time in woods looking for balls.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Just posting to comply with rule 6. I'm still alive, just waiting for people to do stuff really.

[zxcvbn2]

I just honestly don't know what to say. I'm not mafia? I have no idea who could be, and we have no way of proving it until after N1 really.

[O]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

[Robz888]

Robz: In Mafia III I had no strategy. It was my first game and I didn't really know what I was doing. It worked apparently but obviously showed with my one-shot vig claim. My strategy for this game? Again I don't think I have one.

As and aside I was never able to answer what my real life status is because you (still talking to Robz here) died before I was able to. I think it is awesome that you and jot have been able to make it as journalists. I have a mass comm degree but struggled to find a job so I am back to school to be a medical laboratory scientist. Who do you guys write for?

I write about higher education news and policy for an online news website, The College Fix.

--

As for this game, I have no idea who to vote for. It's tough when we don't have Morgrim to kick around on Day 1. I'm just tossing out questions, hoping something might catch.

Ftl, where were you for mafia II-III-IV???

[Insomniac]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

[Galzria]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

Ah, but there IS info:

Ftl has been at L-1 for... How many irl days now? Quite a few.

IF:

Ftl is Mafia, it takes 5 of 7 Apothecaries to lynch - I can't see Mafia bussing D1, and even if they did, they wouldn't be on the wagon sitting at L-1 for so long. Given this, it's reasonable to expect the lynch hammer to take awhile to land. We would have 4 of 7, which means only 3 people could lynch him.

IF:

Ftl is Town, both Mafia are on this wagon already. If there were 0, or even just 1, the other would've come up with a reason to hammer by now. Letting an opportunity like this just sit there is outside the Mafia wincon.

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

[Insomniac]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

Ah, but there IS info:

Ftl has been at L-1 for... How many irl days now? Quite a few.

IF:

Ftl is Mafia, it takes 5 of 7 Apothecaries to lynch - I can't see Mafia bussing D1, and even if they did, they wouldn't be on the wagon sitting at L-1 for so long. Given this, it's reasonable to expect the lynch hammer to take awhile to land. We would have 4 of 7, which means only 3 people could lynch him.

IF:

Ftl is Town, both Mafia are on this wagon already. If there were 0, or even just 1, the other would've come up with a reason to hammer by now. Letting an opportunity like this just sit there is outside the Mafia wincon.

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

People just voted for him randomly because TINAS voted randomly, and O copied because O didn't want to be replaced by a fake O. So I don't think we learn much because most of the votes are random and following suit, I haven't seen a good reason to vote ftl. The other vote for him was what because its his first game? Thats a terrible reason.

[Captain_Frisk]

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

Before we hammer - we should discuss the D1 night plan:

1. Use powers or not?

2. If yes - then secret or co-ordinated?

[zxcvbn2]

1. Yes
2. I think secret. I think if we coordinate the Mafia will just lie and send us off on a wild goose chase. Better to say who we targeted after the fact.

[Galzria]

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

Before we hammer - we should discuss the D1 night plan:

1. Use powers or not?

2. If yes - then secret or co-ordinated?

Should we base it on his flip reveal? If he flips Mafia, then there is only 1 Mafia left in 8 (arguably left in 4 - the 3 non-voters and the hammer vote). Still, are we likely to do more harm than good? I'm not sure, but would have to believe so.

If he flips town however, there are 2 Mafia in 8 (again, arguably 4 - the first 4 on the bandwagon). But our odds of actually producing a pro-town result should increase, right?

Or do we just use them regardless and let the fallout occur tomorrow?

[zxcvbn2]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

[Insomniac]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

If he flips mafia then I say we don't use them, we're likely to hit the hospital and that increases mafia odds.

Reasoning:

No Powers
7-1 pre night
mafia kills 1
6-1 with no night actions being taken we're just playing a game of mafia, where we try and ferret out mafia

With Powers
7-1 pre night
mafia kill 1
between 0-3 town die 1/8 or 12.5% chance of hitting mafia
worse case scenario -- 3-1, thats a scary boat for day 2. 3 people needed to lynch mafia can easily guide a misdirect

In conclussion IF he flips mafia then no powers is better for the town, i say if he flips mafia we keep our powers on ice till we need them more if you look at other mafia games on these forums the town almost never succeeds in power use until late game

[Insomniac]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

Meant to put this in last post but forgot,

Also we dont want to know what our actual powers are, we DO know see the OP. So assuming your meaning to learn info then a non guided attempt will not learn much as numerous people might end up targeting the same person like for example if he flips mafia I suspect I will be a hot place to use an action as I called him a bad lynch

[zxcvbn2]

Okay. Yeah, I'm just throwing my gut instinct out there, I've never actually played a non-vanilla mafia game before.

[zxcvbn2]

So if we agree that we only lynch if he turns up town/apothecary, should we use powers secretly or coordinate?

[Insomniac]

Personally I THINK if we use them we should coordinate.

I think it should be in pairings of two. For instance.

Pair 1
Robz888
Galzria

Pair 2
O
Thisisnotasmile

Pair 3
yuma
Captain_Frisk

Pair 4
Insomniac
zxcvbn2


Lets use pair 4. That means you target me with your night power and I target you with mine. The mafia will most definetly attempt to throw a wrench in the plan somewhere, for instance if you are mafia you might kill frisk, claim yuma is golem and say that you were jailed/doctored whatever

[Insomniac]

But maybe im wrong because if the mafia try to kill someone and fail they have found one of the 'real' doctors

[jotheonah]

Captain Frisk decides to give the Scrying Pool a try. "Great Scrying Pool," he says "Show me who the familiar is." Words form on the water's murky surface.

"Top card is an Estate. Keep or Discard?"

Vote Count


ftl [4] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O, Galzria
O[3] - zxcvbn2, ftl, Insomniac

not voting - Robz888, yuma

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Robz888]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

[Insomniac]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

Setting up to say "at least one of the mafia must have been a non ftl voter"?

[zxcvbn2]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

So Option 1: Two of the four already voting are mafia.

Option 2: Me or Insomniac are Mafia

Option 3: Robz and yuma are mafia.

Knowing that, I think the pairs should be:

Thisisnotasmile, Captiain Frisk

O, Gazlria

Insomniac, me

yuma, Robz888

if we are using our powers (ftl turns up apothecary/herbalist).

This makes it most likely that the mafia end up together, and the doctors are more likely to save themselves.

I don't know if that's right, but I think that looks fair.

And with that, I'm going to

Unvote: O

Vote: ftl

[Galzria]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

[Insomniac]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

Not necessarily I have a growing suspicion is zxcvbn2 is mafia as he a)Hammerred, b)Tried to guide to power use regardless and then when i suggested otherwise he went oops  c)is now trying to suggest pairings  (MY pairings were copied from the OP i paired player 1 with 2, 3 with 4, 5 with 6, etc removing ftl left 8 people

[Insomniac]

Im also not sure that if ftl is town that both mafia would be on board right away, why hammer if the town will do it for you

[zxcvbn2]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

Not necessarily I have a growing suspicion is zxcvbn2 is mafia as he a)Hammerred, b)Tried to guide to power use regardless and then when i suggested otherwise he went oops  c)is now trying to suggest pairings  (MY pairings were copied from the OP i paired player 1 with 2, 3 with 4, 5 with 6, etc removing ftl left 8 people

Yeah, I was worried people would grow suspicious if I hammered. I just wanted to get things rolling. I doubt anything I say will convince people otherwise, so take it as you will.

[jotheonah]

The Apothecaries were getting restless. Where was the Chancellor? When would their memories return?

"We're not spending another night with those Familiars roaming around!" TINAS exclaims.
"Ftl must be one of them!" CF and O brew up a poisonous potion, while Galzria and zxcvbn2 hold ftl down. 

"Apothecaries, thy drugs are quick," he says, and dies.

Vote Count


ftl [5] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O, Galzria, zxcvbn2
O[2] - ftl, Insomniac

not voting - Robz888, yuma

ftl, Town Apothecary, has been lynched.

Night 1 begins now. Night actions are due in 48 hours. The thread is now LOCKED.

[jotheonah]

FYI, accidentally deleted most of the OP. If anyone has the text of it saved somehow PM me. Otherwise, make do with what's there.

[jotheonah]

I hope no one objects to an early Day 2 start? It occurred to me that since everyone has a night action there's no reason to wait the full 48 hours once everyone has submitted.  If there are no objections we'll continue to do the night phases in this manner.

Good morning. None of you slept last night. You got ready for bed, but you all felt a certain sense of forboding, like the Familiars wouldn't be content to just mess with your memories. So you all woke up and rushed to each others' aid, practicing your ministrations on the sick and the well alike. Then, your minds still foggy from the Potion, you went back to sleep. The fervored pace of last night's doctoring comes back to you in a haze, like a dream, as you step out of your Vineyard groves and survey your fellow anonymous apothecaries. But weren't there more people here yesterday?

You find the bodies of Thisisnotasmile and Insomniac cluttering the Vineyard floor.

Thisisnotasmile, Town Apothecary has been killed by black magic, medical malpractice, or a combination of the two.

Insomniac, Town Herbalist has been killed by black magic, medical malpractice, or a combination of the two.

Day 2 has begun.

[O]

efff.... anybody but the Herbalist damnit..

[Galzria]

I targeted TINAS last night, fwiw. Don't have time to chat atm, but there you have it. Will be back later tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

I also targeted TINAS as per his proposal in his hammervote. 

[O]

So if we agree that we only lynch if he turns up town/apothecary, should we use powers secretly or coordinate?

I was V/LA so I couldn't mention this, but do you all think this is a scumslip or a town-screw-up?

"we only lynch"... could be a scum replacing his scum-action with a townie-action and messing up, or it could just be a stupid typo.

Either way FOS Zxcvbn2: voting, with 2 scum/6 total would be insane right now, especially given that we don't know where night actions went.

[jotheonah]

Oh yeah. With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[Robz888]

I will say more later, but for now--I targeted Galzria, per Insomniac's suggestion of pairs.

[Captain_Frisk]

I also targeted TINAS as per his proposal in his hammervote.

Note: this was zxc's proposal - Since we didn't have consensus, I decided to go with most recent.

[Captain_Frisk]

I also targeted TINAS as per his proposal in his hammervote.

Note: this was zxc's proposal - Since we didn't have consensus, I decided to go with most recent.

FOS GAlzria for following neither suggested pairing.

[Galzria]

I also targeted TINAS as per his proposal in his hammervote.

Note: this was zxc's proposal - Since we didn't have consensus, I decided to go with most recent.

FOS GAlzria for following neither suggested pairing.

At a baseball game, but that's WHY I didn't follow either. I wasn't going to pick sides when there wasn't a consensus when either suggestion might've come from scum and been easy to manipulate results.

[O]

nobody thinks my quote is a scumslip?

[Galzria]

nobody thinks my quote is a scumslip?

Yes, I think there is a valid case there. Forums are acting up for me though, so it's hard to post.

Still, since you were on the Wagon too, I can't inherently trust you. But Insomniac saw the same thing I believe.

[Robz888]

Okay, so we lost two in the night. Based on my understanding, if every townie who was able to kill someone was successful, and the mafia chose to kill someone, we would have... 4 kills. Right? So only 2 is not so bad.

I used my power on Galzria. Which means I cannot be the Alchemist Doctor (the one who kills whoever he targets), unless Galzria was targeted by someone else, who protected him. Or perhaps I was targeted by the Jailblocker. Um. We are going to need everybody to say who they targeted, obviously. I might try/struggle to put together one of those elimination/deduction charts, you know, "Suzy likes blue marbles but not yellows marbles, Freddie likes whatever marbles Jerry doesn't like, which marbles does Nancy like?" One of those.

Ugh.

[Robz888]

If Galzria and Frisk both targeted TINAS, and he died, that means neither have a power that protects their target from dying if nightkilled. Meaning, neither can be the True Apothecary or Apprentice. If one of or both of them was, TINAS should have lived. Right?

[Robz888]

Here are possible situations:

One of them is the Alchemist (Insane Doctor) and one of them is the Stoned Philosopher (Nothing).
One of them is mafia and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the Golem and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the mafia and the other is the Alchemist.

Any other possibles?

[O]

If Galzria and Frisk both targeted TINAS, and he died, that means neither have a power that protects their target from dying if nightkilled. Meaning, neither can be the True Apothecary or Apprentice. If one of or both of them was, TINAS should have lived. Right?

IDK.

If Weak doctor targets scum, does doctor protection save them?

[Robz888]

If Galzria and Frisk both targeted TINAS, and he died, that means neither have a power that protects their target from dying if nightkilled. Meaning, neither can be the True Apothecary or Apprentice. If one of or both of them was, TINAS should have lived. Right?

IDK.

If Weak doctor targets scum, does doctor protection save them?

I think so. Why wouldn't it? If you're protected, you're protected.

[O]

oh, and I targeted Galz.

[Galzria]

Alright, I'm back, and the forums are working again.

Yeah, I'm terrible with deathy. I knew I didn't follow any list (for the reasons I stated above), which is why I wanted to make sure I announced my target before the Mafia got the chance to frame the night kills. By that I mean, with TINAS's death, if I didn't speak up first it would be easy to present a situation where when I DID reveal, it would mean I must be Mafia. Sorry, I've had a few drinks, so I'm not sure I'm being clear.

So yeah. I targeted TINAS, and he died. Someone else claimed the same (C.F.?). I'm hoping that as more results come in things will become more clear. Also, supposedly two people targeted me (O, Robz) but I lived. Why did you both target me? What does my survival mean?

Robz,, I think full claims plus a chart will certainly help.

O, as mentioned, I DO agree with you that the word choice "we'll lynch at night if he flips town" was REALLY off key, and a possible tell.

[O]

Here are possible situations:

One of them is the Alchemist (Insane Doctor) and one of them is the Stoned Philosopher (Nothing).
One of them is mafia and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the Golem and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the mafia and the other is the Alchemist.

Any other possibles?

Found some
Golem, Alchemist, <insert any role here>, <insert any role here> was jailkept
Stoned philosopher, <insert any role here>, <insert any role her> was jailkept and a 3rd party targeted TINAS and killed him.

[O]

@Galz, I followed the last set of pairings to be posted before the thread was locked, or Zxbyvn2's

[Galzria]

@Galz, I followed the last set of pairings to be posted before the thread was locked, or Zxbyvn2's

And Robz followed the first set of pairings? Alright. That's WHY I didn't follow any set; nothing was agreed upon to be used. I picked a member of the lynch wagon and activated my doctory power.

With TINAS's death however, the wagon is down to 4 people, one of which is almost assuredly Mafia, and quite possibly both are there.

[O]

Why did you both target me? What does my survival mean?

Well.. I just tried to analyse the Me/Robz on Galzria situation and found it incredibly unfruitful. Deaths look like a much better place to start, apparently. 

[O]

buying a Robz for analysis, I'm bored and would love to see some chart or something.

[Robz888]

Here are possible situations:

One of them is the Alchemist (Insane Doctor) and one of them is the Stoned Philosopher (Nothing).
One of them is mafia and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the Golem and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the mafia and the other is the Alchemist.

Any other possibles?

Found some
Golem, Alchemist, <insert any role here>, <insert any role here> was jailkept
Stoned philosopher, <insert any role here>, <insert any role her> was jailkept and a 3rd party targeted TINAS and killed him.

True, those work. But it still holds that neither Galzria nor Frisk are the True Apothecary or the Apprentice.

[Robz888]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlXaywBh9jOcdDdIS2JFOVNrT2RqZ3BpMndRVWRnVVE

[Robz888]

Above is my chart of who could be what. If anyone has ideas about how to narrow things down for each person, I'm all ears. Even though O and I both selected Galzria last night, that doesn't really tell us much.

[O]

Here are possible situations:

One of them is the Alchemist (Insane Doctor) and one of them is the Stoned Philosopher (Nothing).
One of them is mafia and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the Golem and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the mafia and the other is the Alchemist.

Any other possibles?

Found some
Golem, Alchemist, <insert any role here>, <insert any role here> was jailkept
Stoned philosopher, <insert any role here>, <insert any role her> was jailkept and a 3rd party targeted TINAS and killed him.

True, those work. But it still holds that neither Galzria nor Frisk are the True Apothecary or the Apprentice.

Huh? How does that hold.. One of them could be true apothecary/apprentice and just have been roleblocked.

[O]

Jailkept* but you know what I meant

[Galzria]

Here are possible situations:

One of them is the Alchemist (Insane Doctor) and one of them is the Stoned Philosopher (Nothing).
One of them is mafia and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the Golem and the other is the Stoned Philosopher.
One of them is the mafia and the other is the Alchemist.

Any other possibles?

Found some
Golem, Alchemist, <insert any role here>, <insert any role here> was jailkept
Stoned philosopher, <insert any role here>, <insert any role her> was jailkept and a 3rd party targeted TINAS and killed him.

True, those work. But it still holds that neither Galzria nor Frisk are the True Apothecary or the Apprentice.

It's possible that I was jailed if either you or O has that ability, and C.F. (Inadvertently as town, or intentionally as Mafia) killed TINAS. (Or I guess vice versa, but I don't know if he was targeted, while I appear to have been twice). This would mean that I could be anything.

[Galzria]

Lol. What O said.

[Robz888]

Ah jeez. Yeah, you're right. If you were Jailkept. Hm, it could be that either O or me is the Jailkeeper, anyway.

[Robz888]

Okay Galz and Frisk can't jointly be True Apoth and Apprentice, I guess.

[O]

Ah jeez. Yeah, you're right. If you were Jailkept. Hm, it could be that either O or me is the Jailkeeper, anyway.

Or another alive player who hasn't claimed..

Or those two dead guys.. does anyone have a quote where action resolution order is explained?

[O]

Okay Galz and Frisk can't jointly be True Apoth and Apprentice, I guess.

YES! So much progress! 

[Robz888]

Yeah, I don't even know how to notate that on my chart. I'm getting lots of exercise... IN FUTILITY.

[O]

Yeah, I don't even know how to notate that on my chart. I'm getting lots of exercise... IN FUTILITY.

What you do is make a chart of every possible combination, and then X off any of <9! (too lazy to calculate) set-ups that no longer apply

[Galzria]

Okay Galz and Frisk can't jointly be True Apoth and Apprentice, I guess.

YES! So much progress! 

/facepalm

We've got to be able to gather more than this. 

We need full claims, though assuming two people will (likely) lie, I'm not sure what we'll really be left with.

Ugh. Good 'ol fashion scum hunting? FoS at Z for that lynch comment.

[O]

Ugh. Good 'ol fashion scum hunting? FoS at Z for that lynch comment.

Scumhunting with D1 votes to go off of, 2 mafia/6 total, and the only potentially confirmable townie (herbalist) dead seems like a losing proposition.

That being said, after we get in all the claims if Z is just as likely to be mafia as anyone else my FOS at him stands.

[Robz888]

Z also hammered pretty casually.

[O]

Z also hammered pretty casually.

Eh, hammering isn't a scumtell, especially D1 in a role madness (or whatever you call medical mafia) setup

But the odd possible scumslip still stands.

[Galzria]

Well, for D2, Yuma, Robz and Insomniac are clear for me. There might be a Mafia there, but the other 4 wagon voters (3 not counting myself) seem like a better place to look D2 for me, as my "base odds" are equal (3 players each side).

Granted, for O I'm on his list instead of him, and for Robz all 4 of us are candidates, but if we cross reference scumtells with our best guess at figuring out N1 we should be able to put something together that looks like a good lynch.

[O]

...Ok, once my MVI setup gets OKed by Volt, I'll post it.. the crushing lack of mafia is driving me insane.

And damnit Galz no way in hell I'm travelling down that path again

[Galzria]

Whoops, drop Insomniac of the above list. I was basing off the opening post which isn't updated to show his death yet.

[O]

Also, for a second I thought Robz had enabled anyone to edit his chart, and was planning some fun there..

[Robz888]

Also, for a second I thought Robz had enabled anyone to edit his chart, and was planning some fun there..

Ha! No editing my chart, scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, for a second I thought Robz had enabled anyone to edit his chart, and was planning some fun there..

Ha! No editing my chart, scum.

Ok - If you trust Galz and I - neither of us can be the Jailkeeper (as that would prevent night kills).

[Captain_Frisk]

So we need claims from ftl and zxc?

[yuma]

So we need claims from ftl and zxc?

and me.... I ended up not going on my camping trip. My grandfather-in-law passed away last night. So I am not really sure how often I will be able to participate in the coming days.

But for now I can say that due to the lack of before and after zxcvbn's hammer--which I feel was a huge mistake, not necessarily the hammer, but the fact that he gave a proposal, assumed we would all follow it and then sent us into night. It would have been much better for him to give a proposal, wait to see what people said, get a solid consensus and then hammer later. As an even larger drawback because the lack of consensus we now have no idea who TINAS or Insomniac targeted last night--it could have been from either suggestion or neither.

I followed insomniac and targeted Frisk--who didn't die! Hooray! Hope that helps. I'll try to get on when I can, but I honestly have no idea what the next few days hold in store.

[Captain_Frisk]

So we need claims from ftl and zxc?

and me.... I ended up not going on my camping trip. My grandfather-in-law passed away last night. So I am not really sure how often I will be able to participate in the coming days.

Doh!  I was looking at an old vote count - clearly ftl can't claim - because he was lynched.

[jotheonah]

If Galzria and Frisk both targeted TINAS, and he died, that means neither have a power that protects their target from dying if nightkilled. Meaning, neither can be the True Apothecary or Apprentice. If one of or both of them was, TINAS should have lived. Right?

IDK.

If Weak doctor targets scum, does doctor protection save them?

Yes.

[jotheonah]

Ah jeez. Yeah, you're right. If you were Jailkept. Hm, it could be that either O or me is the Jailkeeper, anyway.

Or another alive player who hasn't claimed..

Or those two dead guys.. does anyone have a quote where action resolution order is explained?

Basically powers get resolved first, then deaths. So the dead did get to use their actions. It's my understanding that this is the usual way of doing things. Obviously Possession gets resolved before anything else.

Whoops, drop Insomniac of the above list. I was basing off the opening post which isn't updated to show his death yet.

My bad. Forum problems last night.

[zxcvbn2]

I'll agree with what someone else said earlier. I should have made my proposal first, waited, then hammered if no one else did. I got excited, and acted kind of stupid.

I targeted Insomniac last night, per both of our lists.

I understand where you're coming from ("assuming he's not mafia"). Honestly just meant that to say "if he's not mafia," but I understand the suspicion when including everything else that happened.

[Captain_Frisk]

Clarification: if the weak doctor targets someone who is to be killed - does he prevent the kill?

[Robz888]

Clarification: if the weak doctor targets someone who is to be killed - does he prevent the kill?

Yes, that's what the weak doctor's power is.

[Robz888]

Clarification: if the weak doctor targets someone who is to be killed - does he prevent the kill?

Yes, that's what the weak doctor's power is.

The weak doctor dies if he targets mafia, that's all.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'll agree with what someone else said earlier. I should have made my proposal first, waited, then hammered if no one else did. I got excited, and acted kind of stupid.

I targeted Insomniac last night, per both of our lists.

I understand where you're coming from ("assuming he's not mafia"). Honestly just meant that to say "if he's not mafia," but I understand the suspicion when including everything else that happened.

Ok - thats all claims.  Of course 2 people here are mafia - so none of it can be trusted.

So - The people who were targeted were:

TINAS (Galz + CF)
Galz (RobZ + O)
Frisk (yuma)
Insomniac (zxc)

This implies that the following people are NOT jailkeepers, as they would have prevented kills if they were)

Captain_Frisk, Galzria, Zxc

The following people who are still alive that were not targeted are:
RobZ, O, ZXC, Yuma

This means they couldn't have been jailkept - so their roles would fire.  The jailkeeper wouldn't lie, so this should be without disputable.

ZXC can not be any of the following roles:
Real Doctor, Jail Keeper, Weak Doctor - Pending Mod Response to previous question.

That leaves him with CPR Doctor, Vig, Mafia, Useless Doctor (and insomniac was killed by someone else)

The likely scenarios for me right now seem to have O / RobZ being the jailkeeper - jailing Galz - and I'm the vig / cpr doctor... that or Galz is mafia - and I'm vig / useless doctor.

[jotheonah]

Clarification: if the weak doctor targets someone who is to be killed - does he prevent the kill?

Yes, that's what the weak doctor's power is.

The weak doctor dies if he targets mafia, that's all.

Right. And furthermore, he still protects that mafia that night.

[Captain_Frisk]

Right. And furthermore, he still protects that mafia that night.

Thanks for patching me up doc? *stab*   That's just mean!

[Captain_Frisk]

Another possibility is that that Galz was jailkept, and TINAS was the weak doctor and targeted mafia. 

If he followed one of the guidelines - then he targeted Me or O.  3 of us know know that the Weak Doctor targeting Mafia Frisk isn't a valid solution.  The other possibility would be mafia O + me as weak doctor (or vig)

O did declare his target after RobZ - 5 hours after originally posting in the thread - which was also a "Well that sucks tell" (gotta represent pops if he isn't here)

efff.... anybody but the Herbalist damnit..

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells

[Galzria]

Zxc targeted Insomniac solo right?

So he can't be:

Apothecary (Doctor)
Apprentice (Target wasn't Mafia)
Possessor (insomniac was not Jailed)

That leaves:
Golem (Possible if he was the only one to target Insomniac, as it appears)
Alchemist (Vig, same as Golem)
Stoned P. (If Insomniac was Apprentice and target Mafia. Less likely than 1st two)
Familiar (See: Golem / Alch)

Is this right?

[Robz888]

Well, we don't know if Z was Jailkept.

[Robz888]

If we assume he wasn't, you are correct.

[Galzria]

But nobody claimed to target him.

[Galzria]

Town wouldn't have reason to lie about targets and we have all claims in.

[Robz888]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

[Galzria]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

Ah, forgot them. Point taken.

[Galzria]

Well, I'm going to do my best based on what we HAVE been told, since the information of the dead is largely unrecoverable at this time.

[zxcvbn2]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

Well, Insomniac didn't have a power, correct? Or did he gain one after the lynch? And most likely TINAS targeted O or Frisk, depending on which list he decided to follow.

[Robz888]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

Well, Insomniac didn't have a power, correct? Or did he gain one after the lynch? And most likely TINAS targeted O or Frisk, depending on which list he decided to follow.

That's true!! We know Insomniac's doesn't matter. So it's just TINAS. And, we'll just assume he didn't target Z, because that makes it all easier.

[Galzria]

Yuma targeted Frisk solo, correct?

That means Yuma cannot be:

Apprentice (Nobody protected Yuma, so if Frisk were Mafia, Yuma should've died)
Golem (C.F. Wasn't targeted by anybody else, so wasn't NK'd)
Alchemist (C.F. Wasn't protected by anybody else)
Familiar (See Alch)

That leaves the following that Yuma could be:

Apothecary
Possessor (in which case Frisk was jailed)
Stoned P.

---

Lots of notes here:

Apprentice is broken if the dead protected Yuma, in which case Frisk IS Mafia
Golem is broken if the Mafia targeted Frisk
Familiar / Alch are broken if the dead protected Frisk

---

How's that Robz?

[Galzria]

Since I can't see TINAS targeting Yuma, Yuma is not the Apprentice.

[Captain_Frisk]

Since I can't see TINAS targeting Yuma, Yuma is not the Apprentice.

Wait - yuma can be the apprentice as long as I am not mafia - correct?

[Galzria]

Since I can't see TINAS targeting Yuma, Yuma is not the Apprentice.

Wait - yuma can be the apprentice as long as I am not mafia - correct?

Ah, you're right. I was looking too closely at what the power did (died if targeting Mafia), and didn't consider what it DIDN'T do (or in this case, nothing if you're town).

[Galzria]

So looking back then, it's likely that Yuma is not the Golem.

I said it was broken if Mafia target Frisk - and we have no indication that would be true (indeed, it's the case randomly 1/6 the time (there were 6 living town at the time orders were submitted))

It's also broken if TINAS targeted C.F. And was the Alchemist (Vig), which is also a low percentage that BOTH happened.

So while it's possible, it's unlikely Yuma is a Golem. (Did I miss any ways C.F. Could die?)

[jotheonah]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

Well, Insomniac didn't have a power, correct? Or did he gain one after the lynch? And most likely TINAS targeted O or Frisk, depending on which list he decided to follow.

He gained ftl's power and had the option of using it N1. From now on I'm only answering questions bolded and directed at me.

[Galzria]

But we don't know who the dead targeted.

Well, Insomniac didn't have a power, correct? Or did he gain one after the lynch? And most likely TINAS targeted O or Frisk, depending on which list he decided to follow.

He gained ftl's power and had the option of using it N1. From now on I'm only answering questions bolded and directed at me.

Ugh.

[Robz888]

Oh, that's DREADFUL news.

[Robz888]

Well, we definitely should have coordinated the power useage beforehand, because the dead can't confirm who they targeted. Darn.

[O]

O did declare his target after RobZ - 5 hours after originally posting in the thread - which was also a "Well that sucks tell" (gotta represent pops if he isn't here)

1) That tell is inanely stupid and probably the result of one cocky mafiascum player: in MIII I was quite ecstatic when nobody died the night we misslynched at MYLO and I was town.

2) It really wasn't clear to me that we were all revealing, and my reveal wasn't close to last.
----

Now i'm more interested in the charts than the scumhunting ATM so that's all I'll say.

[Captain_Frisk]

O did declare his target after RobZ - 5 hours after originally posting in the thread - which was also a "Well that sucks tell" (gotta represent pops if he isn't here)

1) That tell is inanely stupid and probably the result of one cocky mafiascum player: in MIII I was quite ecstatic when nobody died the night we misslynched at MYLO and I was town.

2) It really wasn't clear to me that we were all revealing, and my reveal wasn't close to last.
----

Now i'm more interested in the charts than the scumhunting ATM so that's all I'll say.

Can't argue with #1 - I was just bringing in the pops.

As for #2 - I think when all of the active players had declared - and we had discussed it on day 1 - that it seemed pretty reasonable that declaring was where it was at.

[Robz888]

I'm afraid we won't be able to get too much info out of the chart, because Insomniac did target somebody with Ftl's ability, and 2 of us are lying anyway, and... yeah, this is tough.

[O]

Robz, is it possible to eliminate scumpairs with the chart, or does the lying make that unlikely aswell?

[Robz888]

Robz, is it possible to eliminate scumpairs with the chart, or does the lying make that unlikely aswell?

I don't see how it's going to be possible to do much of anything with the chart.

[Galzria]

Robz, is it possible to eliminate scumpairs with the chart, or does the lying make that unlikely aswell?

I don't see how it's going to be possible to do much of anything with the chart.

So where do we go from here?

[O]

Scumhunt I guess:

#1 Z for the possible scumslip and then later not understanding the scumslip apparently
#2 Captain Frisk for forgetting which players were alive and using pretty bad logic with tables to try to FOS with me (he assumed everyone was telling the truth and, and drew the conclusion that its likely that weak doc targeted me and I'm scum).
#3 Yuma for lack of posts. Obviously he has every reason to be V/LA, I'm not suspicious of him because he's V/LA, I just haven't had the opportunity to get a townread/scumread
#4 Galzria, townish read
#5 Robz, pretty town atm for making the chart
#6 Myself. I was suspicious at first, but then I went back and checked my role PM and it turns out I'm apothecary.

[Robz888]

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

[Captain_Frisk]

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

Am I the only one who wants to write a program to run through the permutations?  There are only 362K alignments and 384 targeting scenarios - of which many of them are now invalid after the killings.  If I have time after mowing the lawn tonight I'll take a crack at it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

Am I the only one who wants to write a program to run through the permutations?  There are only 362K alignments and 384 targeting scenarios - of which many of them are now invalid after the killings.  If I have time after mowing the lawn tonight I'll take a crack at it.

bad math on the targeting scenarios - disregard.

[Galzria]

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

I will try to do so this afternoon or night, but I'm spending a chunk of the day with my (17 year younger!) Brother for his birthday, so I only have my phone on me.

[Galzria]

Hey, good news! Putting my chart together right now (or at least working on it), and I noticed that both list suggestions (The first by Insomniac, and the second by Zxc) paired them together. So I'm going to go on the assumption that they DID target each other.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey, good news! Putting my chart together right now (or at least working on it), and I noticed that both list suggestions (The first by Insomniac, and the second by Zxc) paired them together. So I'm going to go on the assumption that they DID target each other.

And we can make an assumption that TINAS targeted me or O.

[Galzria]

This is where I'm at. Let me know if there are problems viewing this, and if you CAN edit, please don't. It's far from complete but offers some insight. I'll answer any questions people have on the listed positions as they stand at the moment.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkWRw_TWc_cwdDN2Y3I2X1l1eUJXXzB0aUdlNHIxdUE

[O]

Can't you be apothecary, me/Robz alchemist,  me/Robz weak doctor OR alchemist was jailkept?

...unless that's a scumslip in your chart

[Galzria]

Unfortunately, I'm having a hard time between C.F/O/Robz/Myself - As I can run myself in circles all day trying to figure that out...

Between the number of ways to die, the number of ways to protect, and the fact that anybody there might've been jailkept (except Robz. Whatever he did was successful)

[Galzria]

Can't you be apothecary, me/Robz alchemist,  me/Robz weak doctor OR alchemist was jailkept?

...unless that's a scumslip in your chart

Yeah, I didn't say it was finished. You, Me, Robz, and C.F. are largely un-filled in because I'm not sure how to approach us 4.

[Galzria]

I suppose it should be noted that I am taking everything claimed as truth - because honestly with lies thrown in I don't think I could put much of a spreadsheet together at all.

The recent changes made to Robz are under the assumption that whatever he did to me, he was successful since nobody targeted him, thus he couldn't be jailkept. This means that if he attempted to killed me (Familiar/Alchemist) I was either in jail, or O protected me. If Robz was a Golem, that means I was in jail or O tried to kill me.

[Galzria]

Can't you be apothecary, me/Robz alchemist,  me/Robz weak doctor OR alchemist was jailkept?

...unless that's a scumslip in your chart

O, I see your confusion now when you viewed the chart. I had put under Apothecary & Galzria: Only if Robz/O are Alchemist -- I meant Possessor (and it's changed now). Basically, if I am a protection role (Apothecary, Apprentice, Golem) I would've protected TINAS from dying unless I was jailed.

[O]

Can't you be apothecary, me/Robz alchemist,  me/Robz weak doctor OR alchemist was jailkept?

...unless that's a scumslip in your chart

O, I see your confusion now when you viewed the chart. I had put under Apothecary & Galzria: Only if Robz/O are Alchemist -- I meant Possessor (and it's changed now). Basically, if I am a protection role (Apothecary, Apprentice, Golem) I would've protected TINAS from dying unless I was jailed.

Makes more sense, thanks.

[Galzria]

I THINK at this point, I've taken it as far as I can. Please look it over and see if you can spot any more mistakes. Recognize that what's filled in for Captain Frisk, myself, and Robz is largely driven by my not being a Familiar. Obviously you cannot know that for sure, but you'll have to view the spreadsheet from that perspective because I DO (*Follows 'O' lead and checks role PM*) know my role is Apothecary, and I was trying to make it as complete as I could.

[Galzria]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

[O]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

[Galzria]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

[Galzria]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

I guess the only lie that would make sense though is that if Mafia ARE responsible for one of the kills, they would likely claim to have targeted someone who didn't die. But then that's the logical thing to do, so maybe they just told the truth anyway? I don't know. WIFOM.

[O]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

.... We really screwed this one up, didn't we.

[Robz888]

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

[Galzria]

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

I would agree with that based on his "scum" tell, and I know O feels somewhat similar as well - And the fact that all 3 of us feel that way worries me WAY to much to do so.

I'll have to look over the chart and try to figure out who gives us the best concrete answers by lynching (thus confirming... well, argh. Nothing. Unless they flip Familiar)...

[Captain_Frisk]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

If Mafia are lying then there isn't much use in the chart at all, and I wouldn't know how to go about analyzing anything that happened.

The point of the chart is to catch mafia in a lying position.

[Captain_Frisk]

Perhaps noteworthy, the only people that could've been jailed (I believe), are:

O: By TINAS
CF: By TINAS or Yuma
Me: By Robz or O

Is that under the all-telling-truth assumption? If mafia are lying i feel like it could be any of us

The jailor wouldn't lie.  As long as you assume that our dead tonwies voted per the instructions, and weren't renegades like Galzria, you can safely assume that people only people who were targeted by someone are eligible to be jailed.

[zxcvbn2]

I will say this, because I don't think I can put myself in a worse position than I already am.

I knew my game was probably done the moment ftl flipped town. It was stupid and risky of me to hammer, and especially to suggest different night actions in the same post. I clearly should have posted that, waited for arguments, then voted. It makes little difference now though.

The problem with using an incompetence defense here is that it can obviously be used both ways. I voted because I was stupid, and what mafia would hammer there? But at the same time, I'm already clearly not very bright at this game regardless of my alliance.

However, I am an apothecary. I don't know how to prove it. I really can't. All I can say is that there is really no way town can win if you lynch me.

[Robz888]

I actually believe him.

[Galzria]

I actually believe him.

Eh, at the moment I don't/can't weigh it either way. If you're playing Mafia on f.DS I already have an ingrained respect in the player intelligence levels. So while I don't buy "I'm not smart at this" (smart IS assumed different than experienced here), I'm not going to judge based on that statement either way.

It's WAY easier to get in over head as town than Mafia. So... Yeah. For now I'll attempt the deathy method.

[yuma]

I have been looking over everything and can't get much out of the charts and speculation--thanks to those who made them though.

But this did jump out to me.

Yes. It was important to agree beforehand on who to target, and we didn't do that.

Let's lynch Z for hammering before we could agree on targets.

I actually believe him.

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

[Robz888]

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

His response struck me as either genuine, or expertly crafted. If he was mafia, his hammer on ftl was a risky move--in fact, probably a bad move. So it doesn't suggest to me the kind of expertise he would need, as mafia, to write such an adequate response to my accusation. So I am more or less buying his defense. Although now I wish I had furiously denounced him anyway, because it might have revealed who else was willing to go along with it.

[Galzria]

Did zxcvbn's short response give enough reason to validate such a quick and complete turn around in Robz's opinion of him? My opinion of zcxvbn isn't great, and his defense didn't do much to change any of that for me, but it sure seemed to do so for Robz who went from "lynch" to "believe" easily. What made you change Rob?

I think we need to make sure we aren't focusing so much on analyzing the targets that we forget to analyze behavior as well.

His response struck me as either genuine, or expertly crafted. If he was mafia, his hammer on ftl was a risky move--in fact, probably a bad move. So it doesn't suggest to me the kind of expertise he would need, as mafia, to write such an adequate response to my accusation. So I am more or less buying his defense. Although now I wish I had furiously denounced him anyway, because it might have revealed who else was willing to go along with it.

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

[O]

expertly crafted responses don't earn my trust anymore. In MIII I was pretty sure Eevee was scum, read his analysis post in lylo, got massive townread, and then he turns out to be scum...

[jotheonah]

Well into the morning, the Vineyard's dirt floor is filled with charts and diagrams, scratched into the ground by Galzria and Robz888. When zxcvb2 happens to step on part of the chart, Galz screams "Familiar! Familiar!"  As the town stares he says, in a quiet voice "Please don't step on my chart."

Vote Count

not voting - Robz888, Galzria, O, yuma, Captain_Frisk, zxvcbn2

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


I was PMed about this, so I'm addressing it.  I have no problem with the docs being shared.  But be aware that outside resources like Google docs are editable (unlike posts and QTs) and cannot be policed by the mod, so trust them at your own peril.

[Robz888]

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

Galzria, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I didn't mean anyone specifically.

But now, yes.

[O]

Scumhunt I guess:

#1 Z for the possible scumslip and then later not understanding the scumslip apparently
#2 Captain Frisk for forgetting which players were alive and using pretty bad logic with tables to try to FOS with me (he assumed everyone was telling the truth and, and drew the conclusion that its likely that weak doc targeted me and I'm scum).
#3 Yuma for lack of posts. Obviously he has every reason to be V/LA, I'm not suspicious of him because he's V/LA, I just haven't had the opportunity to get a townread/scumread
#4 Galzria, townish read
#5 Robz, pretty town atm for making the chart
#6 Myself. I was suspicious at first, but then I went back and checked my role PM and it turns out I'm apothecary.

I'd like to see other people make posts like this, if possible.

[Galzria]

"Who else" is a bit harsh. I don't think anybody went along with it. If that was meant to suggest that I did, surely you should read more closely (I will not stop calling you Shirley)?

I *might* have CONSIDERED a Zxc vote, but certainly not for the reasons you listed. If it were to be non-dethy based, it would be on the scumslip, but even that's not great. And with so much interest I would be really, really hesitant.

Still, from a dethy standpoint: Zxc has the fewest non-familiar options available, so if roles were to be randomly assigned based on the chart, he would come up scum most frequently.

So... Yeah. Still leaning that way unless someone cab interpret things differently for me?

Galzria, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I didn't mean anyone specifically.

But now, yes.

Err, "but now, yes" - not quite sure I got your intended meaning on that.

Do you have a different interpretation?

[Robz888]

Well, you sort of made the "who else" conversation about you. I didn't mean for it to be that way. It's fine. I'm not gunning for you. Should I be? You didn't follow instructions!

[O]

ITT: The two scum who I had lowest on my suspicion list battle each other in an exercise of futility while ignoring my list based scum-hunting efforts.

[Robz888]

I'm not ignoring your list, O. When I urged Galzria to make a list as well, many posts ago, I was actually talking about making one in the style of YOUR list, not in the style of my useless chart that won't solve anything as it turns out.

But then he went and put in Galzria-level effort on an apothecary chart, and I decided to let it slide.

[Robz888]

My list, from suspicious to not: Galzria, Z, Frisk, O, yuma.

Galzria, mostly because he looks like he is picking a fight, and he didn't follow the orders. Yuma I have no specific suspicions of. Everybody else sort of runs together.

[Galzria]

Well, you sort of made the "who else" conversation about you. I didn't mean for it to be that way. It's fine. I'm not gunning for you. Should I be? You didn't follow instructions!

I would have if there were instructions to follow! At last, not that were agreed on.

No, really, we really got screwed by that. Both you and O targeting me, and the possibility of TINAS targeting either of two people make it nearly impossible to get a clean chart. Had we used a single pair setup, it would be a lot cleaner.

And I didn't intend to make the above about me (obviously), but your previous statement had felt unfair to what I actually felt/said, so I was inclined to correct it.

In any case, you should be gunning for me if you think I'm Mafia. I would suggest that as Mafia I wouldn't put that much effort into what is largely a town tool, but I can understand how that would ring hollow after M-II. Still, this game is so much different than that (least of all because here I'm pro-town). This whole setup is confusing.

I'm not taking it less seriously... But it feels SO much more out of my control and up to the dice. Hmm. *Pops in Luck Be A Lady*.

On nothing classic Mafia related, I think I would lynch O or Zxc. The first because he is the most wide open in terms of possibilities on my chart and could clear the most up by flipping Apothecary/Familiar. The latter because he has the fewest non-Familiar outs.

The fact that both were on the lynch wagon gives me that much more to go on.

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Speaking of Yuma, he has the lowest odds of being a Familiar on the chart, and as he was off the wagon, I am inclined to trust him.

[O]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

[Galzria]

My list, from suspicious to not: Galzria, Z, Frisk, O, yuma.

Galzria, mostly because he looks like he is picking a fight, and he didn't follow the orders. Yuma I have no specific suspicions of. Everybody else sort of runs together.

Btw, you get terrible reads on me.

I wasn't picking a fight, just correcting some wording choices that felt backhanded to me. Nothing serious (nor did I intend my response to come off as angry - hence the Airplane! Reference).

Eh, I'm sure now I'm just backpeddling, but what can one do?

[Galzria]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

[O]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

Well, it's not really a scumtell in of itself IMO but if one of Yuma/Galz flipped scum (which I don't think is too amazingly likely) I would start looking into this connection.

[Galzria]

Also, Robz, assuming you are NOT Mafia, you are the only one who knows for a fact there was Mafia on that wagon (as you and Yuma are the only two off left alive).

Why doesn't this also apply to Yuma?

Because I've had a few drinks and was directing my post at Robz and not considering it from the flip perspective. It does apply to Yuma, of course.

Well, it's not really a scumtell in of itself IMO but if one of Yuma/Galz flipped scum (which I don't think is too amazingly likely) I would start looking into this connection.

Eh, like I said, Yuma is hands down my strongest town read. Given he can only be scum if TINAS protected C.F. In death (nobody could have jailed Yuma, and only TINAS targeted* C.F. With Yuma) it just seems unlikely and jives with Yuma not voting.

*TINAS's target is unconfirmed, making the above even more likely.

[zxcvbn2]

I think yuma and Robz are most likely doctors, b/c of a combination of what they've written and that they both abstained from voting last time.

I think if I made a list, it would look like:
Frisk
Galzria
O
yuma/ Robz
me

I think with Frisk pointing out O makes Frisk look suspicious. Which basically leaves Galzria. I doubt Frisk would be pointing at O as potentially suspicious if they were both mafia,  which looks even worse for Galzria, through my eyes.

Just take that however you like.

[Captain_Frisk]

My list:

Galz: For not following instructions on who to target - and for reasons below.
O: Not because of the scenario I dreamed up - but because he declared target last.
zxc: for muddying the waters by changing vote targets
Yuma / Robz: No read
Me: Double checked my PM

The biggest reason I'm FOS-ing Galz is this:

WE SHOULD NOT BE LYNCHING TODAY

O alluded to this yesterday - but with 6 people, 2 mafia, 4 required to lynch we need all 4 townies to get together on a lynch.  If we fail - then all we need is 1 townkill @ night and the game is over.  We basically put ourselves in a position where we are relying on random powers to save our bacon.

If we no-lynch - then we have a little buffer for our power explosions tonight - and (hopefully) on day 3 we will have enough information to make informed decisions.

We could no-lynch - and no-power - and we'll be in the same situation here tomorrow, but at least then we only need 3 townies to agree on who to lynch... which is a much stronger position.

Galz knows this - he's used the very same math in M3... and yet he hasn't said anything about it here.

[Captain_Frisk]

Edit - O didn't declare his target last among all of us... last among active players.  He was logged in, Rob, Galz and I all declared quickly, and then he declared later. 

[Galzria]

F***

Had my whole essay typed out and closed the window. Here's the abbreviated version:

Least to most suspicious:

Galzria: Hi. Pushed for lynch yesterday, but have analysis on respective flips at the possible detriment to myself if ftl flipped town. WIFOM argument for you guys. Not a Familiar.

Yuma: Least likely via the charts (only if TINAS targeted Frisk). Didn't vote ftl. Likely not scum.

Robz: Also didn't  vote ftl, but was quiet D1, which was a spy tell in Resistance. Not getting that vibe overall here though, and has been helpful D2.

CF: This was his positioning in the first list too, but only because he hadn't said much. His last post however is just silly. He wants us to No-Lynch, so our random powers don't end the game. But basically, you're trading a controlled kill for a roll of the dice. I understand getting all 4 is harder than getting 3, but as I don't know what will happen at night I would rather have control over who I try and kill.

O: His "buying hammer, will provide nails" was very  anti-town cnn play. Yes, I wanted ftl's lynch too, but I have analysis on what his flip would tell us. O just wanted him dead. Also, my chart would be helped the most by his lynch. Still, I'm not sure, and honestly I could care less what our roles are, I just want to find scum. So he's not an ideal lynch.

Zxcvbn2: Aside from the documented scumslip, Z's odds of being scum on the chart are better than anybody else by a good Margin. Even if I don't trust the chart fully though, I looked back at the proposed lists (of which he made the second), and the only pair that was the same on both were Him/Insomniac. As scum, this provided a way for him to assure his kill went through since regardless of which list people followed, Insomniac couldn't be protected. This plays to the Mafia wincon ideal in a random power setup. Put everything together, and the odds of finding scum here are pretty decent. Better than anywhere else anyway.

---
More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

[Captain_Frisk]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

[zxcvbn2]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

[Captain_Frisk]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

Mafia can only kill 1 town.

[zxcvbn2]

More @Frisk:

In a normal game, with normal, semi-known powers, yes I believe that to be true. But with the randomness of who we all are, I would rather try and shoot for Mafia when I can control the outcome than go into Night hoping for the best.

Except that we can agree not to use our powers tonight - and then we only need 3 to lynch - vs. hoping we get 4 - and then relying on random powers to save us at night.

I don't understand. If we agree not to use our powers, the mafia will kill two town, and the game will be effectively over at 2 town-2 mafia. Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but I think you have to either lynch and hit mafia, or get lucky w/ night actions or it's pretty much game over.

Mafia can only kill 1 town.

Okay, misunderstood. Sorry.

[yuma]

I am really conflicted about my list, because no one to me is solid town, or really solid familiar. It is all too up in the air.

zxcvbn is suspicious but do I believe his naivety and subsequent defense? Not really.

He is at the top, everyone else is rather muddled.

I am really torn about Robz. I have a hard time believing that the ftl lynch had both mafia members on it--well I could believe that both were on it if zxcvbn turns up familiar--but if only one was on the lynch then Robz has to be familiar right, as I am not.

I don't think Robz has addressed this potential with me--possibly because if he is familiar he didn't want to bring suspicion down on himself by casting doubt at the two (Robz and me) who didn't vote for ftl.

Using this logic I would bet that either zxcvbn or Robz is mafia, and the other mafia is within the group of the next three. But this takes the assumption that both zxcvbn and Robz aren't mafia together, which I highly doubt.

Frisk, O and Galz all float together. I don't buy Frisk's suspicion of either Galz or O for not following instructions or for declaring last. Those seem to be too unsubstantial and if the only reasons certainly aren't enough for me.

So if you want a list:

zxcvbn
robz - again this suspicion is more if zxcvbn is town
galz, O, Frisk (If I really had to separate these three it would be Frisk, O, Galz) but they are all really close
yuma

If we do lynch someone I think lynching zxcvbn is a better bet than the rest, and we can get some useful information out of it. But again the question do we want to lynch?

(Also, I bet people have noticed, but haven't commented that Robz and I were the only ones not targeted during the night, does that have any significance?)

[O]

WE SHOULD NOT BE LYNCHING TODAY

M1 had the stalemate breaking provision that Mafia win if nolynch-NK for 3 days, not sure what MV's is

either way saying "we're at MYLO" here is ambiguous for multiple reasons: protective roles (we wouldn't have won if we didn't misslynch at MYLO in M3..) and killing-doctor roles.

I'm not convinced either way, really.

[O]

we need some progress guys

[Galzria]

we need some progress guys

I agree. I think I've pulled everything I can out of the night actions. I disagree with C.F. On not lynching, but I don't think his argument was really a scum tell.

Best thing I have is Zxcvbn2 setting his list to only include the same pair in one spot: Him/Insomniac. No matter who followed what list, he would have Insomniac all alone. This guaranteed that Insomniac could not be protected. I cannot see any protown reason for this, when he mixed pairs on everybody else.

Vote: Zxcvbn2

That's the strongest tell I think we're likely to see.

[O]

I'd like to vote for Z aswell but in reverse-pyschology-mafia-land that obviously means Z is town.

Except it doesn't, we don't have any better options and he's still l-2

VOTE:Zxcvbn2

[Robz888]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

[O]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

[Robz888]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

Well, I disagree entirely. This is his first game. In my first game, if I were mafia, I would have gone to great lengths to not be the ultimate vote in a mislynch.

[O]

Would he Day 1 hammer, though? That's what i can't get past.

D1 hammer analysis is incredibly WIFOM. Vote analysis is fruitful; hammer analysis (unless it was at MYLO or something like in MIII) isn't.

Well, I disagree entirely. This is his first game. In my first game, if I were mafia, I would have gone to great lengths to not be the ultimate vote in a mislynch.

This is his first game on F.DS, he has read other F.DS mafia threads presumably/played other mafia games...

I mean, you can't honestly believe that a hammer on a town is a towntell? It's incredibly WIFOM and you know it. And this is the second time you've oddly steadfastly defended Z.

[Robz888]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

[O]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

And then you distance.

[Robz888]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

And then you distance.

You know what, I'm going to VOTE: GALZRIA, because he didn't follow directions, and that's what my instinct is, and this is going to turn out randomly anyway.

[Galzria]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

It will be random, of course. But it will be LESS random than anybody else. There are only Three Non-Familiar roles he can be, and that's INCLUDING him telling the truth and a Mafia lying. (He could have killed Insomniac as a Alchemist or Golem. He could be a Stoned Philosopher if Mafia lied and targeted Insomniac. Nothing else works). That's FAR better than the options for anybody else, and added into the reason I listed to vote for him (Scumtell based on list pairing only him and Insomniac together - the only pairing the same as Insomniacs list) makes it far less than "average 2/6" odds.

[Galzria]

I'm not steadfastly defending him. I am completely lost in this game. If we want to kill him, that's fine. I suspect the outcome is going to be fairly random, since we can't figure out the powers.

And then you distance.

You know what, I'm going to VOTE: GALZRIA, because he didn't follow directions, and that's what my instinct is, and this is going to turn out randomly anyway.

Complete chainsaw defense.

zxcvbn2 is Mafia, and Robz is his partner.

[O]

Chainsaw defense is a scum tell IFF the lynched person is mafia.

[Galzria]

Chainsaw Defense:

 http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Chainsaw_Defense_(old)

[Robz888]

Then kill me, and find out.

[O]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells#Chainsaw_Defense_.28Tarhalindur_Version.29

I did #5 earlier as CF see eagerly pointed out

[Robz888]

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

[O]

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

>implying he uses same strategy every game
>possible chainsaw defense
>"go ahead, vote for me"

vote:Robz

[Galzria]

Chainsaw defense is a scum tell IFF the lynched person is mafia.

True, but I've played with Robz as Mafia, and as town. He is using weak to borderline faulty logic Re: zxcvbn2, and being completely oblivious to the GOOD reasons posted. His vote screams "don't look there", and his logic on me, while a decent case, would not alter the scumminess of zxcvbn2's list scumtell.

This play is the "grasping at straw-man" arguments of a scum Robz, not a town.

[Galzria]

Don't split the vote O. It makes it harder for Yuma/Frisk to cleanly understand what's going on. Robz's partner got called out on a scumtell,, and he's trying to head it off before it goes anywhere. He's being RIDICULOUSLY defensive and erratic.

Lynch the better odds target, Zxcvbn2, then lynch Robz when he flips Mafia.

[O]

But I'm pretty convinced that Robz is scum even if Z isn't, while I'm less convinced about the reverse.

[Robz888]

The old one, two.

[Galzria]

But I'm pretty convinced that Robz is scum even if Z isn't, while I'm less convinced about the reverse.

Well, after that explosion by Robz, I'm equally convinced. I'll let Frisk and Yuma weigh in then, and be happy whichever way they decide.

[O]

The old one, two.

Robz proposes a O-Galz scum alliance

How original.

Honestly this is a pretty ugly OMGUS

[Robz888]

I proposed nothing. I have no idea who is mafia. Except I don't think Z is, and Galzria maybe.

[Galzria]

Pretty much, O. He hasn't actually refuted or even tried to refute, any of the logical reasons presented. All he's done is come out swinging at the people who made the cases to begin with. There's no logic to his posts. It's all defense/attack - and the votes/FOS weren't even on him.

[Robz888]

Pretty much, O. He hasn't actually refuted or even tried to refute, any of the logical reasons presented. All he's done is come out swinging at the people who made the cases to begin with. There's no logic to his posts. It's all defense/attack - and the votes/FOS weren't even on him.

Dunno that I am swinging, or defending, or attacking...

[O]

I proposed nothing. I have no idea who is mafia. Except I don't think Z is, and Galzria maybe.

The old one, two.

ITT: Robz tries to play like Jo/O/Pops/Morgrim and fails pretty badly

[Galzria]

Do me a favor Robz, or hell, any of you:

Walk me through a scenario where, as Galzria = Mafia, it would make sense to be the FIRST claim on target after N1, claiming a name of somebody who died, and somebody I was not paired up with on either list - When I COULD'VE just claimed to have targeted Robz (whom I WAS paired with and lived).

[Robz888]

I proposed nothing. I have no idea who is mafia. Except I don't think Z is, and Galzria maybe.

The old one, two.

ITT: Robz tries to play like Jo/O/Pops/Morgrim and fails pretty badly

And we all know Morgrim was mafia.

[Galzria]

Do me a favor Robz, or hell, any of you:

Walk me through a scenario where, as Galzria = Mafia, it would make sense to be the FIRST claim on target after N1, claiming a name of somebody who died, and somebody I was not paired up with on either list - When I COULD'VE just claimed to have targeted Robz (whom I WAS paired with and lived).

My case for zxcvbn2 isn't foolproof. There are realistically 2 roles outside of Familiar he could be (not counting Stoned Philosopher since that requires another player interacting with those two). Those odds alone are much greater than the dethy method provides on anybody else.

And the read on comparing the lists (something Robz USUALLY loves to do) is about the best regular mafia read I've seen in some time.

Trying to paint this vote as RVS is ignoring BOTH of the above. This vote won't get to 100% certainty, but where else are your odds going to be better?

[Robz888]

And how am I playing like them? I don't see Z as mafia. I don't really see Galzria. It's more of a feeling than anything else.

[jotheonah]

The Chancellor arrives back at around 10 in the morning. He sees the diagrams covering the dirt floor, the three dead bodies.
"I uh... I brought some canapes," he says. "Also, the Witch was not very cooperative. In fact, she turned me into a newt."
Now it was the town's turn to stare at the Chancellor.
"Well, I got better."

Vote Count

zxvcbn2[1] - Galzria
Galzria[1] - Robz888
Robz888[1] - O

not voting - yuma, Captain_Frisk, zxvcbn2

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

What is our deadline?

[jotheonah]

Two week deadlines. So, not for ages, basically. I will give an exact date when I'm not rushing off to work.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys a couple of points:

1 - It is impossible to lynch scum without me - or mafia bussing eachother.  Everyone who is an apothecary (go check your PMs) can make the same statement.
2 - Before I vote - I want to make sure we have the night plan in effect.
2a - Plan #1 - What are we doing if we lynch mafia (powers / how to target?)
2b - Plan #2 - What are we doing if we've lynched town (we have to use powers here)

I will not cast any vote that is not a hammer - as I am not confident of any reads at this point and I tend to think that voting is dangerous as per my previous post.

Remember that Mafia can deduce our powers - they will probably know which ones of us have the dangerous powers - so pre-announcing may be dangerous - but without co-ordination - we're going to be in trouble.

[Galzria]

All right guys a couple of points:

1 - It is impossible to lynch scum without me - or mafia bussing eachother.  Everyone who is an apothecary (go check your PMs) can make the same statement.
2 - Before I vote - I want to make sure we have the night plan in effect.
2a - Plan #1 - What are we doing if we lynch mafia (powers / how to target?)
2b - Plan #2 - What are we doing if we've lynched town (we have to use powers here)

I will not cast any vote that is not a hammer - as I am not confident of any reads at this point and I tend to think that voting is dangerous as per my previous post.

Remember that Mafia can deduce our powers - they will probably know which ones of us have the dangerous powers - so pre-announcing may be dangerous - but without co-ordination - we're going to be in trouble.

1 - Assuming you are town, this is correct. When I put together my logic behind my vote on Zxcvbn2, I honestly thought you were the likeliest scum partner. Not on anything concrete, but just a feel. After Robz's outburst last night though ("Well then vote for me" is such an anti-town thing to say when you're town in MyLo it's ridiculous. Seriously.), I am forced to put a lot more faith in you. That said, I still obviously trust Yuma more. If Yuma's scum we're pretty much screwed, because he has the best town case hands down.

2 - If we lynch and hit Mafia, I say we do not use our powers. We will be up 4 to 1 going into the night. After the Familiar kill, we'll be up 3 town to 1 Mafia. This provides us (albeit small) a buffer on a mislynch. If we USE our powers after a Mafia flip, we are basically trying to stop a 1 in 4 kill, while hoping not to bungle things up worse.

3 - If we lynch and hit Town, I think we use them, but how? A chain (A->B->C->D->A) means the Mafia kill WILL work, since nobody will defend his target. At that point we're hoping to have 2 shots at Apothecary killing a Familiar. If we do pairs, there is an odd man out (remember, there are 3 town, 2 Mafia left going into night) and I'm not sure how to handle him. If we pile up, we have a 2/5 chance of picking a Mafia, and then we have to hope none of our powers protect (Mafia would just NK whoever they wanted). This seems the worst to me. Soo... Any other options? I would lean towards chain-protecting, to make sure we have 2 chances at hitting a Familiar with a NK Apothecary.

[Captain_Frisk]

3 - If we lynch and hit Town, I think we use them, but how? A chain (A->B->C->D->A) means the Mafia kill WILL work, since nobody will defend his target. At that point we're hoping to have 2 shots at Apothecary killing a Familiar. If we do pairs, there is an odd man out (remember, there are 3 town, 2 Mafia left going into night) and I'm not sure how to handle him. If we pile up, we have a 2/5 chance of picking a Mafia, and then we have to hope none of our powers protect (Mafia would just NK whoever they wanted). This seems the worst to me. Soo... Any other options? I would lean towards chain-protecting, to make sure we have 2 chances at hitting a Familiar with a NK Apothecary.

A chain may result in the killer being jailkept - although if the chain involves consecutive mafia - then they can obviously make it work correctly.

[Galzria]

3 - If we lynch and hit Town, I think we use them, but how? A chain (A->B->C->D->A) means the Mafia kill WILL work, since nobody will defend his target. At that point we're hoping to have 2 shots at Apothecary killing a Familiar. If we do pairs, there is an odd man out (remember, there are 3 town, 2 Mafia left going into night) and I'm not sure how to handle him. If we pile up, we have a 2/5 chance of picking a Mafia, and then we have to hope none of our powers protect (Mafia would just NK whoever they wanted). This seems the worst to me. Soo... Any other options? I would lean towards chain-protecting, to make sure we have 2 chances at hitting a Familiar with a NK Apothecary.

A chain may result in the killer being jailkept - although if the chain involves consecutive mafia - then they can obviously make it work correctly.

I agree completely that it's not a great solution, but is it optimal? Is there a better method?

[Captain_Frisk]

3 - If we lynch and hit Town, I think we use them, but how? A chain (A->B->C->D->A) means the Mafia kill WILL work, since nobody will defend his target. At that point we're hoping to have 2 shots at Apothecary killing a Familiar. If we do pairs, there is an odd man out (remember, there are 3 town, 2 Mafia left going into night) and I'm not sure how to handle him. If we pile up, we have a 2/5 chance of picking a Mafia, and then we have to hope none of our powers protect (Mafia would just NK whoever they wanted). This seems the worst to me. Soo... Any other options? I would lean towards chain-protecting, to make sure we have 2 chances at hitting a Familiar with a NK Apothecary.

A chain may result in the killer being jailkept - although if the chain involves consecutive mafia - then they can obviously make it work correctly.

I agree completely that it's not a great solution, but is it optimal? Is there a better method?

We could attempt to classify ourselves into "potentially dangerous" and "potentially helpful" - and then target appropriately based on who we think is scum and / or town.  The "potentially helpful" folks should probably (without saying) target likely mafia kills, and the potentially dangerous folks (like you and I!) should target the likely scum (also you and I?)

[Galzria]

3 - If we lynch and hit Town, I think we use them, but how? A chain (A->B->C->D->A) means the Mafia kill WILL work, since nobody will defend his target. At that point we're hoping to have 2 shots at Apothecary killing a Familiar. If we do pairs, there is an odd man out (remember, there are 3 town, 2 Mafia left going into night) and I'm not sure how to handle him. If we pile up, we have a 2/5 chance of picking a Mafia, and then we have to hope none of our powers protect (Mafia would just NK whoever they wanted). This seems the worst to me. Soo... Any other options? I would lean towards chain-protecting, to make sure we have 2 chances at hitting a Familiar with a NK Apothecary.

A chain may result in the killer being jailkept - although if the chain involves consecutive mafia - then they can obviously make it work correctly.

I agree completely that it's not a great solution, but is it optimal? Is there a better method?

We could attempt to classify ourselves into "potentially dangerous" and "potentially helpful" - and then target appropriately based on who we think is scum and / or town.  The "potentially helpful" folks should probably (without saying) target likely mafia kills, and the potentially dangerous folks (like you and I!) should target the likely scum (also you and I?)

Let's assume Zxcvbn2 were to flip town: That tells everybody that myself and O are highly dangerous. Yuma moderately dangerous (Zxcvbn2 doesn't lynch without him regardless, do he's here for this argument), and you moderately dangerous. Robz remains moderately dangerous as well, since there could very well be just 1 Mafia on-board the mislynch.

So in this case, "Safe" is you, Yuma, and Robz? Dangerous is O and myself? It's not pretty. I think in this case night actions should be secret, and O and I (weird subject structure, O and I) should target the safes, while the safes target the dangerous. It puts more pressure on me and O, while not letting the safe people completely off the hook as well.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - I meant safe / dangerous from the perspective of powers.

Because my target died night 1 - i have to assume that my power is likely destructive - where O / RobZ are more likely to have protective powers. 

[Galzria]

@Galz - I meant safe / dangerous from the perspective of powers.

Because my target died night 1 - i have to assume that my power is likely destructive - where O / RobZ are more likely to have protective powers.

Ah, my misunderstanding.

Well, you and I targeted and killed TINAS between us. Insomniac died to Zxcvbn2. If zxcvbn2 flipped town, we would be the next most likely N1 killers. I see.

If we target each other, and the the safes... Ugh. Lay it out for me if you don't mind. I'm not sure how the best way to play that is. I understand your meaning though.

[Captain_Frisk]

I just tried and failed.  This is going to have to be a evening puzzle type of activity.

[Galzria]

I just tried and failed.  This is going to have to be a evening puzzle type of activity.

So if Zxcvbn2 flips town, your thought is to have Robz, O, and Yuma randomly target you or I, while you and I target our highest scum suspects?

[Captain_Frisk]

I just tried and failed.  This is going to have to be a evening puzzle type of activity.

So if Zxcvbn2 flips town, your thought is to have Robz, O, and Yuma randomly target you or I, while you and I target our highest scum suspects?

No - because one of RobZ, O and Yuma are likely jailkeeper - and I don't want them jailing me

I was going to propose that you and I target eachother - but then I realized that if you're scum - and I'm a nice power - then all I've done is given you the game.  At which point I said - we have 2 weeks per J and I have other things that actually need to be done.

[Galzria]

I just tried and failed.  This is going to have to be a evening puzzle type of activity.

So if Zxcvbn2 flips town, your thought is to have Robz, O, and Yuma randomly target you or I, while you and I target our highest scum suspects?

No - because one of RobZ, O and Yuma are likely jailkeeper - and I don't want them jailing me

I was going to propose that you and I target eachother - but then I realized that if you're scum - and I'm a nice power - then all I've done is given you the game.  At which point I said - we have 2 weeks per J and I have other things that actually need to be done.

You're confusing me, but that's alright. It's better to explore our options than not. Ideally we won't even need to worry about that convoluted mess of "what-to-do", and we'll lynch Mafia.

[zxcvbn2]

I really think that Galzria is mafia, but I don't think it's a good idea to lynch today. I think we'll find out a lot more after one night, and like Frisk said, it will be easier to lynch.

So I'm going to Vote: No lynch.

/waitsforshitstorm

[Galzria]

I really think that Galzria is mafia, but I don't think it's a good idea to lynch today. I think we'll find out a lot more after one night, and like Frisk said, it will be easier to lynch.

So I'm going to Vote: No lynch.

/waitsforshitstorm

I'm getting bored of these accusations without reasons, and when asked for elaborations none can be offered.

[zxcvbn2]

Fine. I think that Robz and yuma are probably not mafia, since they didn't vote (together) and I don't get that impression from what they say. So that leaves, you, O, and Frisk. With O and Frisk kind of arguing with each other the solution is that one of them is mafia with you.

Of course, my logic includes me not being mafia, and some gut feelings, but there's my reason.

[yuma]

I've got an idea. Let me know if it is bad.

I like the ideas of Frisk and Galzria, but there is a nagging feeling of what if one--or both?!--are mafia and are leading this action train in the wrong direction? It isn't anything against them specifically--I would be feeling the same way against any of you...

Here is a way to possibly alleviate that concern.

I like the idea of not performing any night actions if we lynch mafia. So the only way we would use night actions is if we lynch town--if zxcvbn is town. At that point the only person out of us 6 that we as a whole would be certain about is zxcvbn. At that point his opinion could be trusted. I think we need to make sure he has the final voice and decision about who targets whom, or how targets are aligned.

If he is mafia--his input is void since we won't be using actions anyways.
If he isn't mafia--then we aren't being completely guided by someone(s) that could be mafia.

Now I am not saying that zxcvbn should make the decision process by himself, he should have input from the rest of us. He should just have the final say before being hammered. But I feel more comfortable with this than with just Frisk or just Galz coming up with a plan.

If we go with this plan there is always the chance that zxcvbn refuses to cooperate. Well, then he is likely mafia and we are no worse than before. If he does cooperate then he is 1. town or 2. a mafia who realizes that his only choice is to look town and cooperate.

This plan can work with anyone if we decide to lynch someone other than zxcvbn.

Are there any problems with this plan I am not seeing? If there are flaws let me know and we can rework it or scratch it.

[Galzria]

I've got an idea. Let me know if it is bad.

I like the ideas of Frisk and Galzria, but there is a nagging feeling of what if one--or both?!--are mafia and are leading this action train in the wrong direction? It isn't anything against them specifically--I would be feeling the same way against any of you...

Here is a way to possibly alleviate that concern.

I like the idea of not performing any night actions if we lynch mafia. So the only way we would use night actions is if we lynch town--if zxcvbn is town. At that point the only person out of us 6 that we as a whole would be certain about is zxcvbn. At that point his opinion could be trusted. I think we need to make sure he has the final voice and decision about who targets whom, or how targets are aligned.

If he is mafia--his input is void since we won't be using actions anyways.
If he isn't mafia--then we aren't being completely guided by someone(s) that could be mafia.

Now I am not saying that zxcvbn should make the decision process by himself, he should have input from the rest of us. He should just have the final say before being hammered. But I feel more comfortable with this than with just Frisk or just Galz coming up with a plan.

If we go with this plan there is always the chance that zxcvbn refuses to cooperate. Well, then he is likely mafia and we are no worse than before. If he does cooperate then he is 1. town or 2. a mafia who realizes that his only choice is to look town and cooperate.

This plan can work with anyone if we decide to lynch someone other than zxcvbn.

Are there any problems with this plan I am not seeing? If there are flaws let me know and we can rework it or scratch it.

I like this better than anything suggested. Like I said, I realty didn't have a good solution and was hoping for more input. I would support this absolutely.

[Captain_Frisk]

I like this better than anything suggested. Like I said, I realty didn't have a good solution and was hoping for more input. I would support this absolutely.

I like the idea as well.

[zxcvbn2]

If I'm going to get lynched, I might as well help town as I'm going down. I'll cooperate, and will take suggestions as to what we should do.

[Captain_Frisk]

Mafia can only kill 1 town.

Okay, misunderstood. Sorry.

If we're going to lynch someone and execute their commands if they turn out to be town - we might want it to be someone other who actually knows how the game works.

[O]

Like Robz, who is now way scummier than Z in my book. So thats counterintuitive because it's actually a lower chance of Robz directing us as town but.. obviously a scum lynch is most preferable

[Galzria]

So... While we HAVE awhile until the deadline, nothing will be furthered by nobody posting. I'd like to at least make an attempt at progress.

Zxcvbn2: I have listed 3 ways above of how to use our powers if the lynch flips town: Stack, Chain, and Pairs. Frisk suggested (if it's you who's lynched in this case) that since he or I are the two most dangerous at this point (based on the fact that our target died N1) so we should be randomly targeted by the remaining 3 (Robz888, O, and Yuma), while he and I choose our "most likely scum" targets in the hopes of killing them. That's 4 different ways you could choose from, or I'm open to other ideas you might wish to come up with.

Robz: If you could please do the same? Produce a pattern of night power uses that you feel give the town the best chance if you flip town.

[O]

Someone could do the chart for me- maybe no-night actions if we lynch scum is undoubtably best. If not, here's my idea:

Find a highly unlikely scum pair where each x and y are still suspicious: x is scummy, y is scummy, but xy is unlikely.

Lynch x. If x is scum, follow y's plan. If x is town, follow x's plan

[zxcvbn2]

So if I understand correctly:
Chain: A->B->C->D->E->A
Pairs: A-><-B, C-><-D, E?

but I don't see anything for "stack." What is that?

[Galzria]

So if I understand correctly:
Chain: A->B->C->D->E->A
Pairs: A-><-B, C-><-D, E?

but I don't see anything for "stack." What is that?

Stack is when everybody piles on a single person, thus vastly increasing the odds that said person can't die - but nothing else happens (outside scum targeting someone else to kill then easily).

It, to me, appears to be the weakest of those 3 options, but it was mentioned D1 so I mentioned it here as well.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think i have an answer - let me play around on the notebook some - please don't lynch anyone before tomorrow!

[jotheonah]

Deadline is July 10th at 8 PM EST.

[O]

We need progress guys....

Nolynch is really... Really dumb. Either we don't do night-actions in which case someone unsuspicious (read: probably Yuma) gets lynched and we get very little information.

If we DO do night actions after no lynch, we run the risk of 2 townies dying = instaloss misslynch then townie death+ scum death = not instaloss, nor is no night deaths or 1 scum death.

Now, if Z was town, that means his nolynch vote would Guarantee that if we lynched, scum would be on the lynchwagon. As I take Z at his word if he was town,that's incredibly anti-town behavior. So Unvote Robz, vote Z

PPE: Unvote until CF posts his analysis

[jotheonah]

Vote Count

zxvcbn2[1] - Galzria
Galzria[1] - Robz888
No lynch[1] - zxvcbn2

not voting - yuma, Captain_Frisk, O

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

J - can the jail keeper keep himself in jail?

[Galzria]

J - can the jail keeper keep himself in jail?

Not in a standard game. Not sure here.

[O]

Self-targeting is not allowed for the vast majority of roles. Self-jail keeping also has some dependency issues.

[jotheonah]

J - can the jail keeper keep himself in jail?

I want to rule No. But given the weirdness of this game, I instead have to rule that NO ONE CAN TARGET THEMSELF WITH THEIR POWER. If they do, it will be interpreted as no night action.

[Captain_Frisk]

J - can the jail keeper keep himself in jail?

I want to rule No. But given the weirdness of this game, I instead have to rule that NO ONE CAN TARGET THEMSELF WITH THEIR POWER. If they do, it will be interpreted as no night action.

This destroys my plan.

[jotheonah]

It would be totally gamebreaking, I think. Sorry, bro.

[Captain_Frisk]

It would be totally gamebreaking, I think. Sorry, bro.

Yeah - so my plan was:

No lynch

Put the dangeorus people on one side (Me, Galz, zxc), and the safe people on the other (O, RobZ, yuma)

Have each safe person target themselves

Have each dangerous person target someone on the safe side.

Mafia should only be able to kill 1 person - and odds are in our favor that we will either kill mafia - or not safely not kill town.

[O]

as CF's analysis was unfruitful:

Vote:Zxvcbn2

[yuma]

as CF's analysis was unfruitful:

Vote:Zxvcbn2

I want to wait to vote until we get a solid plan approved by whomever we decide to vote for. Haven't heard much from Robz about any of this. I am interested in his thoughts

[Galzria]

as CF's analysis was unfruitful:

Vote:Zxvcbn2

I want to wait to vote until we get a solid plan approved by whomever we decide to vote for. Haven't heard much from Robz about any of this. I am interested in his thoughts

It concerns me only because he had one rough night posting, and then has gone silent. And he's been active elsewhere.

[Robz888]

Sorry, I'm here. Not sure what the best plan is. I don't know how helpful co-ordinating our powers will be at this point. I'm tempted to say we should do nothing in the night, because we can't risk having two deaths again.

I will support killing Z if that's the decision. We have to kill someone, and I'm the only one who didn't get a suspicious vibe from him. Obviously I had a bad feeling about o and Galzria when I was fighting with them. Since I know I'm innocent, I still feel pretty bad about them, but I don't expect that to convince anybody.

Not use powers, right? Unless we can narrow down who was the kill ability... or perhaps we should all target the same person, because assuming at least one of us has a doctor power, that person will live. Uh, maybe we do that to yuma, who we all think is innocent.

[O]

If Z's scum, its debatable.

If Z's town, we sure as hell use our powers... or else we're 2:2 tomorrow

[Galzria]

If Z's scum, its debatable.

If Z's town, we sure as hell use our powers... or else we're 2:2 tomorrow

This. If he's town and we don't use them, it's game over.

[Robz888]

Oh jeez. Yeah. If he is town, go for broke.

Who is Z's ally, then? Other than me?

[O]

Oh jeez. Yeah. If he is town, go for broke.

Who is Z's ally, then? Other than me?

If Z is scum (70% IMO), it's probably you, possibly Captain Frisk (but no, it's you after that Chainsaw defense)
If Z is town, obviously me and Galzria look incredibly scummy, and obviously I'd say its likely Galzria, and Galzria would say it's likely me. Both of us would say that the two of us are not a scumpair.

[Galzria]

Oh jeez. Yeah. If he is town, go for broke.

Who is Z's ally, then? Other than me?

If Z is scum (70% IMO), it's probably you, possibly Captain Frisk (but no, it's you after that Chainsaw defense)
If Z is town, obviously me and Galzria look incredibly scummy, and obviously I'd say its likely Galzria, and Galzria would say it's likely me. Both of us would say that the two of us are not a scumpair.

Stop it! I hate saying "this", but, well, This.

[O]

Also.... guys, if we lynch town (which I really don't think we are).
Shouldn't we NOT plan out night-actions? A) Because 2/6 people who planned are scum and B) If we give them a map there's like a 0% chance we get a doctor protect, which is one of our best attempts at not losing.

I realize I said differently earlier but I just came to this conclusion.

[zxcvbn2]

I'm not really sure which to use. Stack seems worst, and I don't think pairs is a good idea either, unless you guys REALLY think Robz is mafia, and then we pair the other four and leave him out (I think). I don't think he is, though. And chain seems to be a bad idea as well.

I think I would definitely go with your fourth idea if I had to choose. The two mafia are, to me, among CF, O, and Galzria, with O and Galzria looking the most "scummy." So I guess I would say Robz, yuma, and CF target each other, while O and Galzria pick whoever they think is scummiest.

If you guys think that's a bad idea, let me know. And if you think differently (like O just said) than let me know.

[Robz888]

I agree with Z. I want to lynch Galzria. I know for a fact, after all, that Z and I are not a mafia team. I think O and Galz is too obvious. Probably Galzria and Frisk.

[Galzria]

Also.... guys, if we lynch town (which I really don't think we are).
Shouldn't we NOT plan out night-actions? A) Because 2/6 people who planned are scum and B) If we give them a map there's like a 0% chance we get a doctor protect, which is one of our best attempts at not losing.

I realize I said differently earlier but I just came to this conclusion.

Well, I think that's the point of letting Zxcvbn2 (if he's the lychee) choose. There is no "optimal" solution, but the Mafia only get 1 kill. We get 3 chances to either negate that kill, or take out a Mafia during the night.

CF's point about having he and I target our likeliest scum targets (as our target, TINAS, died) increases the odds we would kill again. If each of the remaining 3 randomly target us (CF and I), it increases the odds that (if one/both of us were Mafia (I say this knowing I'm town, but understand you don't) we get blocked). It separates two groups, while keeping things random enough to present a WIFOM  for the Mafia in who they kill.

What I mean is that it keeps things random, but semi-controlled. It doesn't tip our hands too much to the Mafia while increasing our odds of successfully  surviving the night.

[zxcvbn2]

I agree with Z. I want to lynch Galzria. I know for a fact, after all, that Z and I are not a mafia team. I think O and Galz is too obvious. Probably Galzria and Frisk.

I actually completely agree with this. In fact, I know it's probably just a meaningless vote, but I'll go ahead and:
Unvote
Vote: Galzria

[O]

Also.... guys, if we lynch town (which I really don't think we are).
Shouldn't we NOT plan out night-actions? A) Because 2/6 people who planned are scum and B) If we give them a map there's like a 0% chance we get a doctor protect, which is one of our best attempts at not losing.

I realize I said differently earlier but I just came to this conclusion.

Well, I think that's the point of letting Zxcvbn2 (if he's the lychee) choose. There is no "optimal" solution, but the Mafia only get 1 kill. We get 3 chances to either negate that kill, or take out a Mafia during the night.

CF's point about having he and I target our likeliest scum targets (as our target, TINAS, died) increases the odds we would kill again. If each of the remaining 3 randomly target us (CF and I), it increases the odds that (if one/both of us were Mafia (I say this knowing I'm town, but understand you don't) we get blocked). It separates two groups, while keeping things random enough to present a WIFOM  for the Mafia in who they kill.

What I mean is that it keeps things random, but semi-controlled. It doesn't tip our hands too much to the Mafia while increasing our odds of successfully  surviving the night.

Wait, if my interpretation of Z's plan is correct, if gives action-orders for ALL FIVE of us. Scum have more info than we do, they probably can actually deduce to much higher certainty what role each person has. If scum DO deduce peoples roles, this leaves some possibilities:

A) Scum are not targeted by a killing role. Scum can deduce who among the town doesn't have protection, and kills him. Town loses at 2-2 or 1-2
B) Scum ARE targeted by a killing role. Scum can choose to go to 2-1 most likely, possibly even have the chance to self-target to provide protection against the Golem.

I really really am not convinced that having a set plan for all roles helps the town.

[Captain_Frisk]

If we mislynch today - we 100% need to kill mafia - so I think the round robin approach makes the most sense (vs. stacking or pairs).  With pairs - we might save mafia... and it would be ok to kill 1 town and 1 mafia. 

Pure chaos - as O suggests feels very dangerous to me.

[zxcvbn2]

If we mislynch today - we 100% need to kill mafia - so I think the round robin approach makes the most sense (vs. stacking or pairs).  With pairs - we might save mafia... and it would be ok to kill 1 town and 1 mafia. 

Pure chaos - as O suggests feels very dangerous to me.

I feel like the "round robin" approach is also the least likely for us to get anything out of it. With 2 out of 5 mafia, it will only be more confusing for the remaining town to piece together who has what role. But maybe I'm wrong, I can be convinced otherwise.

I stand by my previous directions. If anyone has any direct problems with it, besides that it has directions for all 5 people, than please let me know.

[Galzria]

I'm not sold on pure chaos either, nor round robin. I think I approved of CF's idea most, which was controlled chaos. It tips our hands the least while retaining some form of moderate control.

I'm not positive I like Zxcvbn's implementation of it, but maybe I was unclear on what he meant though. Zxcvbn, could you post it again with clarity on who targets who?

[zxcvbn2]

Yeah.

Robz->yuma->CF

Galzria and O target whomever they think is most likely to be scum.

On the one hand the three "least scummy" people have the potential to save each other.

On the other, if one is Golem, it could be bad news.

Since Galzria and O are most likely scum, I wouldn't want anyone protecting them.

Sorry about all the one sentence paragraphs. If you have more questions or would rather do a variant of this, I'll address it when I get back in about 2 hours.

[Galzria]

Yeah.

Robz->yuma->CF

Galzria and O target whomever they think is most likely to be scum.

On the one hand the three "least scummy" people have the potential to save each other.

On the other, if one is Golem, it could be bad news.

Since Galzria and O are most likely scum, I wouldn't want anyone protecting them.

Sorry about all the one sentence paragraphs. If you have more questions or would rather do a variant of this, I'll address it when I get back in about 2 hours.

Alright, I do have some misgivings, but there is no optimal solution. Neither I nor CF can be the jaier, but we both may be able to kill. So having him target Robz, and me target O is good enough. If CF is a Familiar, Yuma might jail him which could be helpful.

It's not great, but I support it. If you flip town, that's a good enough plan for me.

[jotheonah]

The Chancellor gathered everyone together to make an announcement.

“You'll be happy to hear,” he said, “That the University has acquired another new Laboratory this term, and we didn't have to spend a single Copper!”

“How does the University manage to acquire a new Library or Laboratory every term?” asked yuma.

“It probably has something to do with that Scrying Pool,” said Frisk.

“But what does this have to do with our predicament!” asked O angrily.

The Chancellor frowned. “You still haven't figured that out yet? Better get to it!”

Vote Count

zxvcbn2[2] - Galzria, O
Galzria[2] - Robz888, zxvcbn2

not voting - yuma, Captain_Frisk

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

Is it wrong to distrust our mod because he killed me in M3?

[Captain_Frisk]

I am leaning toward Galz over zxc - for no reason other than gut feel.

Galz - what would your proposed mapping be?

[yuma]

I am leaning toward Galz over zxc - for no reason other than gut feel.

Is your gut feeling stronger than both your gut feeling toward zxcvbn and the math that points to him as "more likely" mafia than the rest of us?

[Captain_Frisk]

Can you point me to the math?  I do enjoy math.

[yuma]

I hate math, but I can try using Robz's chart it appears that of the roles remaining:

zxcvbn can't be True Apothecary, Apprentice, or Possessor. That leaves him with a 2/5 chance of being Familiar.

Galz: can't be Possessor, and there is a chance that he can't be True Apothecary or Apprentice. So that means he is somewhere between a 2/7 and a 2/5 chance of being Familiar

C-Frisk: the same holds for you as for Galz. between 2/7 and 2/5.

(I don't think I could accurately do the math to predict what the full chances are of you two being a familiar. If someone else wants to, feel free).

For O and Robz they could be any of the remaining possibilities, so both have a 2/8 chance.

I would fall under the same calculations as O and Robz (2/8) but I know I am not Familiar.

Anyone want to correct any of this? Feel free if it is wrong.

Given this and zxcvbn's behavior he still makes the most sense as a lynch target for me.

[Captain_Frisk]

My gut feeling is based on zxcvbn being the sole targeted of insomniac.

He was the last to claim - which looks suspicious - but then he actually claimed someone who no-one else has targeted - and someone who looks suspicious.  It's WIFOM - but he didn't need to call extra attention to himself.

Vs. Galz - very quickly came in and claimed to have targeted (so there can't be any accusation of lurking) - yet had 2 people target him - so there's a plausible excuse of jailkept.  I suspect that if he is mafia - then one of the other people who claim to have targeted Galz is also mafia (RobZ / O) to provide the "jailkept" excuse.

His agreement with zxc's plan would lead to a mafia win if Galz / O are mafia.  It would not if Galz / RobZ are mafia - unless yuma is the jailkeeper.
 

Yeah.

Robz->yuma->CF

Galzria and O target whomever they think is most likely to be scum.

On the one hand the three "least scummy" people have the potential to save each other.

On the other, if one is Golem, it could be bad news.

Since Galzria and O are most likely scum, I wouldn't want anyone protecting them.

Sorry about all the one sentence paragraphs. If you have more questions or would rather do a variant of this, I'll address it when I get back in about 2 hours.

Alright, I do have some misgivings, but there is no optimal solution. Neither I nor CF can be the jaier, but we both may be able to kill. So having him target Robz, and me target O is good enough. If CF is a Familiar, Yuma might jail him which could be helpful.

It's not great, but I support it. If you flip town, that's a good enough plan for me.

Now - to be clear here - this is a weak case - hence the gut feel argument.  ZXC's late claim as the sole targeted of a dead person strikes me as a very bold mafia play - or an honest town one.  Maybe my balls are too small - but I wouldn't have done it.

[Galzria]

Yeah, you'll have to go with Robz' chart as mine is being fiddled with to view likely outcomes of assuming "X" is a Familiar.

Yuma had the right of it though and I've pointed towards this math (with explanation) on multiple times in the past. In fact, it was one of the driving factors in my vote. That, combined with the contrast of the two lists using night powers allowed Zxcvbn2 to get insomniac all alone (thus insuring the kill wouldn't be blocked)

[Galzria]

Also, CF, if Zxcvbn2 claimed anyone OTHER than Insomniac after he paired them together in he's on list, it would be complete obvscum tell.

I chose a different target because we didn't have a defined, agreed on, list. Zxcvbn2 made his own list in the hammer post. At that point he was all but required to follow it.

Further, we had 2 NK's that are both a whole lot harder to explain because of Zxcvbn's actions in producing that second list. All it did was add confusion to the game and uncertainty to the charts. Some people followed list A, some list B, some (like myself and maybe even TINAS/Insomniac neither). We simply don't know.

[Galzria]

Lastly, can somebody, anybody explain how my claiming to target a deadman whom I was not paired with in EITHER list makes more sense as scum than me claiming to target a living soul, like Robz888, whom I WAS paired with?

[zxcvbn2]

So, I'm going to respond to some of these:

First off, I only paired myself w/ Insomniac because my thinking was to pair up those who had voted (More likely to be scum) with those who hadn't (Robz, yuma, me, Insomniac). I didn't even look at the other list while making it. I just checked it to make sure that his list didn't include the 4-4 split that I was planning.

I'm not doubting that voting in the same post as posting a list wasn't stupid. That was a dumb, dumb mistake on my part. I should've posted my list and waited for feedback, but nobody was posting and I got anxious. I certainly wouldn't make that mistake again.

And 3rd, if Galzria's town, then why in the world didn't he follow either list? I think he's either lying to screw with "the chart," which is a mess anyways. Maybe he can address it directly: Why did you vary from both lists?

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - so your theory is that zxc made a list that resulted in him and only him targeting someone - and then killed them?  He's got balls the size of small dogs, and possibly a swing like Tiger Woods.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - so your theory is that zxc made a list that resulted in him and only him targeting someone - and then killed them?  He's got balls the size of small dogs, and possibly a swing like Tiger Woods.

Since its a very obscure reference:

#t=39s

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - I think I'd like you to propose a night target pairing.

[Galzria]

@Galz - so your theory is that zxc made a list that resulted in him and only him targeting someone - and then killed them?  He's got balls the size of small dogs, and possibly a swing like Tiger Woods.

How else could the Familiars be sure, in a town of unknown powers, that their kill would go through? So yes, very much I do. The fact that there were likely to be other kills was only going to help shift the blame around while doing so.

As for why I didn't follow either: I've addressed this, although nobody will address my question above.

I didn't follow either because neither was agreed on. I could have quite safely claimed to have followed the lists as scum by claiming to target Robz, and magically, look! No suspicion! Instead, I was the first to claim on the new day, claimed a dead target, and claimed someone I wasn't paired with on either list. I still await the grand scum logic behind that, that nobody seems to be capable of providing.

[Captain_Frisk]

I didn't follow either because neither was agreed on. I could have quite safely claimed to have followed the lists as scum by claiming to target Robz, and magically, look! No suspicion! Instead, I was the first to claim on the new day, claimed a dead target, and claimed someone I wasn't paired with on either list. I still await the grand scum logic behind that, that nobody seems to be capable of providing.

You woke up early to put the wine in front of us.  I would have done it.

[Galzria]

I didn't follow either because neither was agreed on. I could have quite safely claimed to have followed the lists as scum by claiming to target Robz, and magically, look! No suspicion! Instead, I was the first to claim on the new day, claimed a dead target, and claimed someone I wasn't paired with on either list. I still await the grand scum logic behind that, that nobody seems to be capable of providing.

You woke up early to put the wine in front of us.  I would have done it.

That's the best you can give me compared to the reasons I would have just claimed to have targeted Robz, a living player, and one I WAS paired with? It's a completely unnecessary and pointless risk for a scum player to do. The WIFOM case only works as a defense here, andonly as a defense that's created by placing said wine. There is no advantage in my making that claim as scum. None.

I will not produce a list unless Yuma asks me to. Yuma is the closest thing to confirmed town in my mind.

[zxcvbn2]

What's the harm in creating a list? As was stated earlier, if you're town it's helping us win. If you're mafia we won't follow it anyway.

For that matter, why doesn't everyone create a list? I don't see the harm.

In any case, please explain why you refuse to make a list. Because you don't want to be lynched? Well neither do I.

[yuma]

I will not produce a list unless Yuma asks me to. Yuma is the closest thing to confirmed town in my mind.

Galz:

For now I think it would be proper for you to make a list if you get to a point where you have three of the four needed votes on you. That would require Cfrisk, zxcvbn and someone else to vote for you and it would appear that the town had reached a consensus that you are the lynch target. I say this with caution in that it may make you the lynch target by prophecy. Let's use rational behavior here guys and not put three votes on him just to force him to make a list.

Or is there another reason for Galz to make a list? If that is the case should we all be making lists? To me he is no more suspicious than Cfrisk or anyone else for that matter.

In other news, I am going to be out of town for the 4th of july from Wednesday through Sunday morning. Boating, golfing, good food and half a dozen books. I can't wait!
 

[Captain_Frisk]

What's the harm in creating a list? As was stated earlier, if you're town it's helping us win. If you're mafia we won't follow it anyway.

For that matter, why doesn't everyone create a list? I don't see the harm.

In any case, please explain why you refuse to make a list. Because you don't want to be lynched? Well neither do I.

Mafia would absolutely refuse to make a list - because then the plan of following townies instructions (which Galz allegedly agreed to) won't work.

[Captain_Frisk]

@yuma - I will vote for Galz right now if it will make him create a list.  I didn't want to do it for risk of hammer and then having no instructions and chaos.

[zxcvbn2]

I will not produce a list unless Yuma asks me to. Yuma is the closest thing to confirmed town in my mind.

Galz:

For now I think it would be proper for you to make a list if you get to a point where you have three of the four needed votes on you. That would require Cfrisk, zxcvbn and someone else to vote for you and it would appear that the town had reached a consensus that you are the lynch target. I say this with caution in that it may make you the lynch target by prophecy. Let's use rational behavior here guys and not put three votes on him just to force him to make a list.

Or is there another reason for Galz to make a list? If that is the case should we all be making lists? To me he is no more suspicious than Cfrisk or anyone else for that matter.

In other news, I am going to be out of town for the 4th of july from Wednesday through Sunday morning. Boating, golfing, good food and half a dozen books. I can't wait!
 

So this means we'll be going until Sunday (two days before lynch deadline) without someone who most of us agree is a town read. That should complicate things.

Oh, and have fun on your trip!

[yuma]

@yuma - I will vote for Galz right now if it will make him create a list.  I didn't want to do it for risk of hammer and then having no instructions and chaos.

You don't need my permission to vote for him. But don't vote just because it will make him make a list. That was exactly the opposite of want I wanted. If you want to vote for him, vote because you truly think he is our best chance of being Familiar and then hopefully he will provide some instructions for us that we can use during the night if he turns out to be town.

Again, if he is Familiar, this instruction is mute as we aren't going to use night actions?

[yuma]

So this means we'll be going until Sunday (two days before lynch deadline) without someone who most of us agree is a town read. That should complicate things.
Oh, and have fun on your trip!

Thanks. I just found out that the wife has school off on Thursday. So vacation plans were suddenly made.

[O]

Galz is so obvtown right now.. and 2/3 of Robz, Z, and Captain Frisk are scum. Unless Yuma's played a master-game, which I highly doubt.

[Captain_Frisk]

@yuma - I will vote for Galz right now if it will make him create a list.  I didn't want to do it for risk of hammer and then having no instructions and chaos.

You don't need my permission to vote for him. But don't vote just because it will make him make a list. That was exactly the opposite of want I wanted. If you want to vote for him, vote because you truly think he is our best chance of being Familiar and then hopefully he will provide some instructions for us that we can use during the night if he turns out to be town.

Again, if he is Familiar, this instruction is mute as we aren't going to use night actions?

Correct.  I don't want to vote for him and leave us @L-1 - and risk someone hammering him and leaving us without instructions.  I suspect him - but not strongly enough to bone the town over.

[O]

I suspect him - but not strongly enough to bone the town over.

Scumslip

[Galzria]

Here's the list:

Two assumptions:

Robz888 is Mafia

Or

CF is Mafia

---

Robz made me really suspicious earlier, but hell, the pressure on Zxcvbn could've made a town Robz nervous. So I'm going to go with CF is scum:

I am a Golem/Alcemist. If Zxcvbn made the kill on Insomniac, CF did nothing. I was not jailed either, making O/Robz not the Possessor. This leaves Yuma the only living possibility.

Yuma: Random target, your choice. WIFOM to your hearts content.

This makes Yuma a target, Both Robz888 and O should protect Yuma, thus reducing the likelihood of him dying to 0 (you both targeted me and I lived).

This sets up O and Robz to be killed: Yuma, you could pick one to protect, or you could target CF/Zxcvbn - in either case you've got a good chance of preventing the scum NK.

[Galzria]

As for CF and Zxcvbn,, they should target each other.

[Captain_Frisk]

My plan - if I were to be lynched:

Dangerous people are Galz and ZXC

Yuma -> Galz -> RobZ -> ZxC -> O

I'm going to assume that if someone dies - and they are telling the truth - then I'm spreading them out for maximum chance at a kill on mafia.

If we were to no lynch - then I would propose

2 circles - intertwined

Myself -> X -> Galz -> Y -> ZXC -> Z

if the timestamp on this post ends in: 0-2 use X,Y,Z = RobZ, O, Yuma
3-5 use O, Yuma, RobZ
6-8 use Yuma, RobZ, O
9 - Use the next post timestamp - repeating as necessary.

[Captain_Frisk]

Next post:

[Captain_Frisk]

2nd post ended in 2:


Frisk -> RobZ -> Galz -> O -> ZXC -> Yuma -> Frisk

[yuma]

If I understand the situation clearly...

We have two votes for zxcvbn: O and Galz

two votes for Galz: Robz and zxcvbn with Cfrisk likely to vote that way soon?

Lynch could go either way in the next little bit, Galz has his proposal outlined, do we have a solid action plan from zxcvbn?

Thanks for your proposal Cfrisk, but at the moment it looks like we won't be using yours unless there is a complete shift in the wind in your direction.

[zxcvbn2]

I can rehash mine. It went like this:

yuma->Robz->Frisk-> yuma

O and Galzria target who they like. If Galzria believes he's Golem, as he said in his post, he should attack whoever he considers most scummy. If O thinks he's a doctor, then target whoever is most likely to be targeted by mafia.

O and Galzria are my most likely mafia, so I don't want a doctor protecting them. They should keep it a secret to see who they're protecting to prevent Mafia from screwing up everything if they are not mafia.

As I've said before, I'm new to the game and am open to changes in this plan.

[Captain_Frisk]

Thanks for your proposal Cfrisk, but at the moment it looks like we won't be using yours unless there is a complete shift in the wind in your direction.

You did suggest that we should all list...

I like Galz more than zxc, but I'm not fully sold.  I would honestly rather no lynch and go with my 2nd approach.  I think it has more chance of us being able to discuss a plan on Day 3 than the other one does.

One thing I am sure of.  One of the mafia is already voting.

[Galzria]

I'm absolutely loving how I'm going to die to "gut feelings", when nobody can present an actual case on me, whereas I HAVE presented a case for Zxcvbn2, that is backed up by both dethy, and  old-fashioned scumreads.

I don't blame CF. He's either Mafia or being led blind on absolutely nothing. Just goes to show you, logic means absolute squat in these games.

[zxcvbn2]

But... did you know there are more nerve endings in your gut than in your brain?

Source: http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/24039/october-17-2005/the-word---truthiness

But seriously, I know I'm not scum, and my the three most likely, IMO, are the three who were on the Insomniac wagon with me. And with the way you two have attacked CF together, you two are the easier targets for me, personally.

Of course, Robz and/or yuma could be mafia, but I'm also not getting that read from their actual posts.

[Galzria]

But... did you know there are more nerve endings in your gut than in your brain?

Source: http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/24039/october-17-2005/the-word---truthiness

But seriously, I know I'm not scum, and my the three most likely, IMO, are the three who were on the Insomniac wagon with me. And with the way you two have attacked CF together, you two are the easier targets for me, personally.

Of course, Robz and/or yuma could be mafia, but I'm also not getting that read from their actual posts.

Yuma's not Mafia. If he is, the game is unwinnable at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm absolutely loving how I'm going to die to "gut feelings", when nobody can present an actual case on me, whereas I HAVE presented a case for Zxcvbn2, that is backed up by both dethy, and  old-fashioned scumreads.

I don't blame CF. He's either Mafia or being led blind on absolutely nothing. Just goes to show you, logic means absolute squat in these games.

I'm not mafia.  Is your dethy case the same one that yuma put forth earlier... which is to say that PoE says that given an equal shot at any roles, zxc is more likely to be mafia? 

I don't like zxc's hammer and provide conflicting instructions, but I'm not really convinced that its a legit scumtell.

yuma - what's your read?  You prefer zxc?

[Galzria]

Yes, if rolls were assigned today, Zxcvbn would have the highest likelihood of getting scum, based solely on what we know they cannot be.

If Zxcvbn is not scum, there are only two other roles he could've been that would end in Insomniac's death: Golem, or Apothecary. If you believe Mafia decided to target Insomniac for no particular reason and made the kill for him, he could also be a Stoned Philosopher. Realistically though, there are only two outs for him.

Every other person had more than 4 outs, many had close to all of them (Yuma in fact, could pretty much be anything, thus with the most outs, and not voting ftl, is as close to confirmed town as we'll get).

[Galzria]

Sorry, Golem or Alchemist* (Vig)

[Captain_Frisk]

Every other person had more than 4 outs, many had close to all of them (Yuma in fact, could pretty much be anything, thus with the most outs, and not voting ftl, is as close to confirmed town as we'll get).

So my question to you is... as mafia - would you rig it so that you would make yourself look the most probable mafia in the town?

[zxcvbn2]

Sorry, Golem or Alchemist* (Vig)

I'm an idiot. You're absolutely right, and if true I have a >50% shot of killing whoever I target. I'm going to reconsider my plan. I'll come back with a different one in a bit.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - non Zxc based mafia may have selected Insomniac precisely because he was the least likely to have multiple doctor protection on him.

There are plenty of plausible explanations - and the fact that 2 out of the 5 of you may be lying makes math based derivations from the chart very weak.

The fact that you're relying on them to make your case increases my suspicion.  The only thing keeping me back is Mafia 3 regret honestly.

[Galzria]

Every other person had more than 4 outs, many had close to all of them (Yuma in fact, could pretty much be anything, thus with the most outs, and not voting ftl, is as close to confirmed town as we'll get).

So my question to you is... as mafia - would you rig it so that you would make yourself look the most probable mafia in the town?

I've already answered that. It was rigged to allow a kill to go through in a land of unknown powers. Beyond that, he couldn't know ahead of time who would die, who wouldn't, or what the charts would look like. It could've happened that I target Robz at night, Robz dies, and my outs are just as bad as his. He simply couldn't know that far in advance that he would be the only one with so few outs.

If I were Mafia, I would've done the same thing. It was enough of a gamble with a decent likelihood of seeing two ADDITIONAL deaths (Golem kills his partner / Alchemist kills his partner / scumbuddy is paired with Apprentice). We got lucky in only seeing one additional death: TINAS. This hurts the Mafia wincon and makes a lot more uncertainty in the charts (i.e. Leaving a lot more outs for everybody else)

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ - I'm reviewing your chart.  Can you explain  why you have RobZ, ftl as not possible possessors?

Actually - I'd really like to understand why you have X's in all of the doctor columns for your name.

[Captain_Frisk]

If I were Mafia, I would've done the same thing. It was enough of a gamble with a decent likelihood of seeing two ADDITIONAL deaths (Golem kills his partner / Alchemist kills his partner / scumbuddy is paired with Apprentice). We got lucky in only seeing one additional death: TINAS. This hurts the Mafia wincon and makes a lot more uncertainty in the charts (i.e. Leaving a lot more outs for everybody else)

Question to everyone else:  Do you view this as viable mafia play?

[yuma]

Thanks for your proposal Cfrisk, but at the moment it looks like we won't be using yours unless there is a complete shift in the wind in your direction.

You did suggest that we should all list...

I actually asked if we should all be making lists: note the question mark. But that isn't really an issue, I think any input we can get is worth getting.

Or is there another reason for Galz to make a list? If that is the case should we all be making lists? To me he is no more suspicious than Cfrisk or anyone else for that matter.

yuma - what's your read?  You prefer zxc?

I do. Not by much. I am most suspicious of zxcvbn and just about everyone else is equal. Earlier I was also suspicious of Robz as well, but now I am not sure if I should be more or less suspicious of him with his absence of posts... I try really hard to not judge people based off that since real life can get busy super fast.

Barring something crazy happening I would have a hard time separating Galz from the rest of you or vice versa, everyone looks like scum in this bad light. But zxcvbn stands out the most.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ - I'm reviewing your chart.  Can you explain  why you have RobZ, ftl as not possible possessors?

Actually - I'd really like to understand why you have X's in all of the doctor columns for your name.

And ZXCvbn2's

[Captain_Frisk]

Disregard - this was actually Galz's spreadsheet.  I thought it looked strange. 

Galz - I assume you were trying to test out a ZXC / RobZ conspiracy theory?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkWRw_TWc_cwdDN2Y3I2X1l1eUJXXzB0aUdlNHIxdUE#gid=0

[Galzria]

Disregard - this was actually Galz's spreadsheet.  I thought it looked strange. 

Galz - I assume you were trying to test out a ZXC / RobZ conspiracy theory?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkWRw_TWc_cwdDN2Y3I2X1l1eUJXXzB0aUdlNHIxdUE#gid=0

Yes, I asked awhile back to disregard it for now.

[Galzria]

Disregard - this was actually Galz's spreadsheet.  I thought it looked strange. 

Galz - I assume you were trying to test out a ZXC / RobZ conspiracy theory?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkWRw_TWc_cwdDN2Y3I2X1l1eUJXXzB0aUdlNHIxdUE#gid=0

Reset to older (original) version. This holds no assumptions.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - we have some time - here are some extra spreadsheet based stuff that I did in a notebook.

I'm going to use mafia roles instead of our flavor roles because I don't like learning new names for every freaking game.

The power role is the jailkeeper.  Who the JK is and who they targeted makes a big difference.  Whoever they target is both safe from kill, but also doesn't get to do their power - so all sorts of complications.

Fortunately - we know that 4 of us are not the jailkeeper.  Me, Galzria, ZXC and insomniac.

It is however possible - that Insomniac gained temporary jailkeeper powers before being killed.

I started down the path of - what if each person was the jailkeeper - what would this do to the chart.

If tinas was jailkeeper + targeted O -> this implies that RobZ is not a vig - otherwise Galzria would be dead.

If yuma was the jailkeeper, or tinas was and targeted Me -> this implies that Galzira is one of (Mafia, CPR Doc, Vig, or Useless Doc (where true mafia killed TINAS))

if ftl was the jailkeeper - and insomniac inherited powers -> then ZXC was jailkept and we gain no information.

If RobZ or O is the jailkeeper -> then I am one of (Vig / CPR Doc / Useless Doc / Mafia)  I know that I'm not mafia.  This is my big reason for assuming that I am dangerous.

Finally - I just went back to see who listened to who's lists.

listened to zxc:
CaptainFrisk, zxc

Listened to TINAS:
RobZ, Yuma, ZXC

Dead so we have no idea:
TINAS, ftl, insomniac

Did whatever they felt like:
Galzria, O

O - why did you target Galzria?
Galzria - why did you select TINAS?

[Galzria]

There weren't any better options: following either list without town consensus seemed dangerous as either might be scum generated (although I missed that the first was pairs by sign-up, or I might have used it in the name of neutrality).

TINAS is TINAS, and I wasn't sure I trusted his random timestamp vote in the way I don't trust O when he does it (and notably, O didn't this game, so it felt even more like a cover).

And this quote stuck out to me:

 

Just posting to comply with rule 6. I'm still alive, just waiting for people to do stuff really.

Given my pre lynch analysis of where I expected scum to be, he seemed a fine target for me. If I had a killing power, I had a 1/4 chance of hitting scum (possibly even 2/4). If I was the Jailer, that worked for me too. If I was a protective role it likely didn't matter as we would all be scrutinized (fairly) D2.

[Captain_Frisk]

Do you regret the decision to not comply now?

[Galzria]

Do you regret the decision to not comply now?

Nope. Given the likelihood of Robz being scum at the time, targeting him and potentially causing another town death seemed disadvantageous. One NK additional (beyond the scum one) was a great outcome for us. My targeting could only have put us in a worse position (unless he IS scum and I killed him - but I was not willing to make that judgment at that time).

[Galzria]

My targeting Robz* (clarity to above)

[Captain_Frisk]

I think that you're off base here - but I'd like O to weigh in before I lay into you.

[Galzria]

I think that you're off base here - but I'd like O to weigh in before I lay into you.

Just vote for me bro, I'm ready to move on. I've laid out my case, with the numbers and scumreads to back it up. My targeting to TINAS would've been as random with the results as anywhere else. The town didn't have an agreed upon list, so the moment one action was cast from one, and a second from the other, there no longer was a system.

The town said: Let's agree to make a list. X was produced. Zxcvbn then hammered and said "we should all do Y" in the same post before anybody // everybody could respond to either. This invalidates the process.

You don't think that was a scum move. I do. I'm not going to change your mind, so vote for me, see you're wrong, and let's move this forward.

[Robz888]

Haven't posted here in a while. Nothing new to say, really. I still think Galzria is the most suspicious, but that's mostly for how he behaved toward me. And I know I moved way up in his suspicions for the same reason.

Who am I using my power on when we go to night?

[Galzria]

Haven't posted here in a while. Nothing new to say, really. I still think Galzria is the most suspicious, but that's mostly for how he behaved toward me. And I know I moved way up in his suspicions for the same reason.

Who am I using my power on when we go to night?

Depends who we lynch. Likely I'm getting lynched, so I think I had you targeting O. Double checking now...

[Galzria]

Here's the list:

Two assumptions:

Robz888 is Mafia

Or

CF is Mafia

---

Robz made me really suspicious earlier, but hell, the pressure on Zxcvbn could've made a town Robz nervous. So I'm going to go with CF is scum:

I am a Golem/Alcemist. If Zxcvbn made the kill on Insomniac, CF did nothing. I was not jailed either, making O/Robz not the Possessor. This leaves Yuma the only living possibility.

Yuma: Random target, your choice. WIFOM to your hearts content.

This makes Yuma a target, Both Robz888 and O should protect Yuma, thus reducing the likelihood of him dying to 0 (you both targeted me and I lived).

This sets up O and Robz to be killed: Yuma, you could pick one to protect, or you could target CF/Zxcvbn - in either case you've got a good chance of preventing the scum NK.

Apologies, I'm tired.

When I'm lynched, you'll be targeting Yuma.

[O]

Knowing that, I think the pairs should be:

Thisisnotasmile, Captiain Frisk

O, Gazlria

Insomniac, me

yuma, Robz888

if we are using our powers (ftl turns up apothecary/herbalist).

Captain Frisk saying "O didn't follow anyone's list" is duly noted as complete bullcrap.

I think, Captain Frisk, that 2/3 mafia are among Z, Robz, and You, and that Z is by far the most likely to be scum. I will not be voting for Galzria under pretty much any circumstances, outside of a scumslip.

[Captain_Frisk]

Knowing that, I think the pairs should be:

Thisisnotasmile, Captiain Frisk

O, Gazlria

Insomniac, me

yuma, Robz888

if we are using our powers (ftl turns up apothecary/herbalist).

Captain Frisk saying "O didn't follow anyone's list" is duly noted as complete bullcrap.

I think, Captain Frisk, that 2/3 mafia are among Z, Robz, and You, and that Z is by far the most likely to be scum. I will not be voting for Galzria under pretty much any circumstances, outside of a scumslip.

Sorry O - reading comprehension fail.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think, Captain Frisk, that 2/3 mafia are among Z, Robz, and You, and that Z is by far the most likely to be scum. I will not be voting for Galzria under pretty much any circumstances, outside of a scumslip.

I know I'm not mafia - I'll even roleclaim it

So your logic would be that RobZ and Zxc would both be mafia - and are both trying to lynch Galz.

Going to go reread here.

[Captain_Frisk]

I've already answered that. It was rigged to allow a kill to go through in a land of unknown powers. Beyond that, he couldn't know ahead of time who would die, who wouldn't, or what the charts would look like. It could've happened that I target Robz at night, Robz dies, and my outs are just as bad as his. He simply couldn't know that far in advance that he would be the only one with so few outs.

But as you've already pointed out, the zxc <-> insomniac pairings were identical in both cases - so the argument that he rigged it to allow the kill through is no good.  In either pairing - the theoretical kill would have gone through.  I suppose an extra list causes confusion - but (and lets mafia hide by choosing which list to follow)  Still seems a pretty advanced mafia play for me.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nothing doing eh?  I know Yuma's not coming back till sunday, so we can't really do anything but bicker... nobody wants to accuse anyone?

[Captain_Frisk]

A question to each of you that is voting:

Would you be willing to switch to the other candidate?

[O]

A question to each of you that is voting:

Would you be willing to switch to the other candidate?

Nope, not really.

[Robz888]

I am open to anything, because I am nowhere near certain on anybody, not even Yuma. My vote right now is for Galzria, because I didn't like his attitude earlier, or his certainty (along with O) that Z was mafia. I didn't really buy the case against Z. I couldn't imagine Z actually hammering if he were scum, and I don't like that Galzria didn't follow the night plan.

But anyway, that's all I've got. I would change my vote, yes, if compelling reasons were given.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - how about this:

For all 4 of you:

What % chance [estimated - or calculated if you want to sim it out based on whoever your lynch target is and what their plan states] do you think we have of surviving the night if we myslynch today?

[Galzria]

I am open to anything, because I am nowhere near certain on anybody, not even Yuma. My vote right now is for Galzria, because I didn't like his attitude earlier, or his certainty (along with O) that Z was mafia. I didn't really buy the case against Z. I couldn't imagine Z actually hammering if he were scum, and I don't like that Galzria didn't follow the night plan.

But anyway, that's all I've got. I would change my vote, yes, if compelling reasons were given.

Not buying a case is fine. But it's the only case there is. Nobody has presented a case on anybody else based on logic or scumtells.

Not liking my use of Night Action is fine. Give me a reason why I would come in here, claim first, claim to have not followed a list, and claimed a dead man instead of a living, WHEN I could've complied with all of those by simply lying?

Your reasons for voting me are terrible, illogical, and only consistent withscum Robz play who knows he can't do better because he has no real argument.

[O]

so... it seems we're pretty solidly at 2-2+1blindtownie (AKA 2-3), so we obviously aren't making progress until Yuma gets here, and even then it might be a tie.

Anyone have any ideas of moving it forward? If nobody likes my blind idea then the plan basics are pretty clear IMO:

Galz-flip:
Scum-> Likeliest death roles target me I guess, obviously I don't like this but as I'm 90% sure galz is town + I want a Z lynch I'm willing to concede this.
Town-> Likeliest death roles target ZXC/Robz/Captain Frisk

Z-flip is the reverse on the groups

[jotheonah]

Reminder: The deadline is Tuesday, July 10th.

[Captain_Frisk]

Reminder: The deadline is Tuesday, July 10th.

Yep - but yuma isn't back until tonight, and ZXC has also been away for a while - you may want to prod him as per the prod in MVI.

[Captain_Frisk]

Reminder: The deadline is Tuesday, July 10th.

Yep - but yuma isn't back until tonight, and ZXC has also been away for a while - you may want to prod him as per the prod in MVI.

Tomorrow yuma is back rather.

[jotheonah]

A heat wave had overtaken the Vineyard, and the town was reduced to simply sitting and staring at one another as the minutes of the day ... ticked ... by.

Vote Count

zxvcbn2[2] - Galzria, O
Galzria[2] - Robz888, zxvcbn2

not voting - yuma, Captain_Frisk

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[yuma]

Haven't read anything... Sorry that I vanished, I had a post almost finished and was about to play perdhaply in the isodom tournament when my 4th of July went crazy.

I don't have time to read right now, but I will later this afternoon and we can get this whole thing rolling again, but I wanted to say Hi, and let you know that I am back.

[yuma]

Sorry, Golem or Alchemist* (Vig)

I'm an idiot. You're absolutely right, and if true I have a >50% shot of killing whoever I target. I'm going to reconsider my plan. I'll come back with a different one in a bit.

O.K. I was about to vote zxcvbn2 but I see that we haven't received a finalized plan from him, since this post makes me believe that he didn't like something about the one he suggested before. Although I am a bit confused about this

I can rehash mine. It went like this:

yuma->Robz->Frisk-> yuma

O and Galzria target who they like. If Galzria believes he's Golem, as he said in his post, he should attack whoever he considers most scummy. If O thinks he's a doctor, then target whoever is most likely to be targeted by mafia.

O and Galzria are my most likely mafia, so I don't want a doctor protecting them. They should keep it a secret to see who they're protecting to prevent Mafia from screwing up everything if they are not mafia.

As I've said before, I'm new to the game and am open to changes in this plan.

That was his original plan. What was wrong with it?

[Captain_Frisk]

@jonah - have you prodded zxc?

[Captain_Frisk]

thon was logged in on 7/8, but hasn't posted anything on the forums since 7/5.

[jotheonah]

In 20 minutes, his 48 hours will be up, and I'll seek a replacement.  The problem is Voltgloss, and several other potential replacers, have been participating in the discussion thread and therefore have additional info/contact with dead townies. If anyone has ideas, PM me.

A request for a replacement has been put in the post and the title. I'll make a post in the Mafia Queue forum also.

[jotheonah]

zxcvbn2 is now ehunt! To give him a chance to catch up, I am extending the deadline by 24 hours.


The new deadline is Wednesday, July 11th at 8 p.m. EST

[Robz888]

eHunt, answer for Z's crimes immediately!

[Galzria]

I'm leaving my vote on Zxcvbn2 until I have more reason to suspect the new guy. eHunt, we await.

[Captain_Frisk]

seriously eHunt - this is all your fault.  Why did you propose a separate group of targets?  WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?

[jotheonah]

You guys are so nice. No "Welcome to the game," no "Thanks for subbing in," just "J'accuse!"

[ehunt]

hi,

due to

1. the amount of text in the game (mercifully small)

2. the amount of logic puzzle involved in this particular game (not so small)

and

3. real life (working on getting rid of it as fast as i can, sorry)

it might not be until late tonight that i can make a good contribution. please don't lynch me before then. I need to know what is going on at a deeper level than skimming the game will give me.

@zxc, if you're back before then and think you'll be able to play, i give you full permission to resume your role as if this never happened.

[Robz888]

Let's lynch him before then.

[ehunt]

The following would be immensely helpful; I know I can find it in the conversation, but I want it in one place, so please can everyone make a short post saying

"I targeted [name of person you targeted last night] last night"

I'll start.
I targeted Insomniac last night.

It's very possible that if I am lynched, the game is over and mafia wins, since I might be the only townie left with a night kill and you need a townie with a night kill in the event that you mislynch. I am willing to target whomever the town as a group makes me target tonight. So please, let's take this slowly. I will keep reading and thinking the best that I can. Did anyone write a script to consider all the possibilities (I saw some talk of it earlier)? I can probably do that tonight (late).

[Galzria]

The following would be immensely helpful; I know I can find it in the conversation, but I want it in one place, so please can everyone make a short post saying

"I targeted [name of person you targeted last night] last night"

I'll start.
I targeted Insomniac last night.

It's very possible that if I am lynched, the game is over and mafia wins, since I might be the only townie left with a night kill and you need a townie with a night kill in the event that you mislynch. I am willing to target whomever the town as a group makes me target tonight. So please, let's take this slowly. I will keep reading and thinking the best that I can. Did anyone write a script to consider all the possibilities (I saw some talk of it earlier)? I can probably do that tonight (late).

I targeted TINAS

[Robz888]

I don't remember. I targeted whoever was on the list. Let me check.

[Robz888]

I targeted Galzria.

[Captain_Frisk]

I targeted TINAS - per your list.

[ehunt]

OK, is this right? Jo: two kills and a save (e.g. familiar + alchemist + doctor) = kill, or save?

zxc targeted Insomniac
O targeted Galz
RobZ targeted Galz
Frisk targeted Tinas
Galz targeted Tinas
Yuma targeted Frisk
Tinas targeted ?? (O or Frisk likely)
Insomniac targeted

Insomniac and TINAS died.


order night axns resolved
1) possession is put in the queue.
2) familiar kill is put in the queue
3) alchemist kill is put in the queue
4) golem save is put in the queue
5) golem kill is put in the queue
6) apprentice self-kill is put in the queue
7) apprentice save is put in the queue
apothecary save is put in the queue

to resolve, if someone is possessed, step 1) doesn't happen. if there is a kill in the queue and not a save on the same person, then that person dies.  (I can't figure out ordering of steps 4, 5, 6, 7, and what I've written isn't quite right, but I think I know what happens in those steps... writing a script seems a little daunting but I will give it a shot).

jo: golem + apprentice = live or die? golem + apothecary = live or die?

@frisk why the hell did you obey my terrible idea to change the list DURING THE HAMMER POST???

[ehunt]

Robz sorry about the emoticons, they are all actually supposed to be punctuation, I promise. (respectively, three question marks in a row and 8 parenthesis).

I just realized that I literally have to be the alchemist. sorry if "I" already pointed that out a few pages ago...

that means this logic puzzle maybe isn't as hard as it would first seem! in particular, it looks like I should be able to figure out who the golem is. unfortunately i am gone for a couple hours, be back later like i promised.

[jotheonah]

OK, is this right? Jo: two kills and a save (e.g. familiar + alchemist + doctor) = kill, or save?

Kill.

jo: golem + apprentice = live or die? golem + apothecary = live or die?

golem + apprentice (I assume you mean if they target the same person and no one else does?) = live. golem + apothecary (same scenario) = live

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz sorry about the emoticons, they are all actually supposed to be punctuation, I promise. (respectively, three question marks in a row and 8 parenthesis).

I just realized that I literally have to be the alchemist. sorry if "I" already pointed that out a few pages ago...

that means this logic puzzle maybe isn't as hard as it would first seem! in particular, it looks like I should be able to figure out who the golem is. unfortunately i am gone for a couple hours, be back later like i promised.

Well - you're off to a bad start:

You could also be: CPR Doctor (Golem).  No-one else targeted Insomniac (allegedly) - so you would have killed him.

You could also be: Useless Doctor - if one of the other people lied and targeted insomniac instead to frame you

Finally - a rarer situation is that you could be any of the others, and the mafia targeted and killed, and one of the other dead doctors was a cpr doctor / vig and targeted insomniac. 

As for why - with 2 different ones, I just picked the last one.  O did the same thing.  Galz didn't follow either.

[Galzria]

As for why - with 2 different ones, I just picked the last one.  O did the same thing.  Galz didn't follow either.

 

There weren't any better options: following either list without town consensus seemed dangerous as either might be scum generated (although I missed that the first was pairs by sign-up, or I might have used it in the name of neutrality).

TINAS is TINAS, and I wasn't sure I trusted his random timestamp vote in the way I don't trust O when he does it (and notably, O didn't this game, so it felt even more like a cover).

And this quote stuck out to me:

 

Just posting to comply with rule 6. I'm still alive, just waiting for people to do stuff really.

Given my pre lynch analysis of where I expected scum to be, he seemed a fine target for me. If I had a killing power, I had a 1/4 chance of hitting scum (possibly even 2/4). If I was the Jailer, that worked for me too. If I was a protective role it likely didn't matter as we would all be scrutinized (fairly) D2.

 

I think that you're off base here - but I'd like O to weigh in before I lay into you.

I'm ready to move on. I've laid out my case, with the numbers and scumreads to back it up. My targeting to TINAS would've been as random with the results as anywhere else. The town didn't have an agreed upon list, so the moment one action was cast from one, and a second from the other, there no longer was a system.

The town said: Let's agree to make a list. X was produced. Zxcvbn then hammered and said "we should all do Y" in the same post before anybody // everybody could respond to either. This invalidates the process.

You don't think that was a scum move. I do. I'm not going to change your mind, so vote for me, see you're wrong, and let's move this forward.

[Captain_Frisk]

Yep - I see your reasoning Galz - thanks for requoting to get eHunt up to speed.  If I could do it again, I would have picked the first list.

[Galzria]

Yep - I see your reasoning Galz - thanks for requoting to get eHunt up to speed.  If I could do it again, I would have picked the first list.

I will say, to give eHunt his fair shot:

While I find the actions of your predecessor to be scummy in nature, I'm open to listening to your explanation, as it's possible I've overlooked something. Can't promise I'll change my mind (I think your predecessor really put you in a compromising position if you're town), but I'll certainly listen before revoting.

Oh, and in case it wasn't clear: Unvote until eHunt gets caught up (not that I'm terribly afraid of you getting hammered without that chance - We've been at a 2-2 deadlock for what feels like forever).

[Captain_Frisk]

My vote wouldn't have mattered until Yuma got back, unless I could have convinced O to vote for you (he said he wouldn't) or RobZ to vote for ZXC.  Seemed easier to just work it out with Yuma - and then we had the ZXC AFK scenario.  Looking forward to eHunt - but I have to say that dropping out of the game seems more likely to be a town aligned behavior - if a very rude one.

[Robz888]

Well, I'm still a supporter of the Galzria lynch.

[O]

but I have to say that dropping out of the game seems more likely to be a town aligned behavior - if a very rude one.

More crap logic. Z didn't "drop out of the game", he disappeared entirely from the forums. I doubt that his role in one mafia game had much of an effect on that decision.

[Galzria]

My vote wouldn't have mattered until Yuma got back, unless I could have convinced O to vote for you (he said he wouldn't) or RobZ to vote for ZXC.  Seemed easier to just work it out with Yuma - and then we had the ZXC AFK scenario.  Looking forward to eHunt - but I have to say that dropping out of the game seems more likely to be a town aligned behavior - if a very rude one.

I'm torn with that. I appreciate eHunt coming in, but he's done nothing scummy... So I find it hard to justify voting replacements. If I keep my vote based on Z's play, that's not fair to anything eHunt may have to offer. If I disregard Zxc and focus on eHunt's behavior, well there's nothing there! It's such a compromised position. :-/

I'll TRY to balance my judgments, but it's not exactly easy.

[Galzria]

Well, I'm still a supporter of the Galzria lynch.

And yet beyond quick one-liners, you've yet to provide a reason or answer any of my questions.

[Robz888]

Well, I'm still a supporter of the Galzria lynch.

And yet beyond quick one-liners, you've yet to provide a reason or answer any of my questions.

It's not a one-liner. One-liners are funny.

I voted for you because you disregarded instructions and became overly and quickly combative with me.  What questions haven't I answered?

[Galzria]

Lastly, can somebody, anybody explain how my claiming to target a deadman whom I was not paired with in EITHER list makes more sense as scum than me claiming to target a living soul, like Robz888, whom I WAS paired with?

 

Do me a favor Robz, or hell, any of you:

Walk me through a scenario where, as Galzria = Mafia, it would make sense to be the FIRST claim on target after N1, claiming a name of somebody who died, and somebody I was not paired up with on either list - When I COULD'VE just claimed to have targeted Robz (whom I WAS paired with and lived).

 

I'm absolutely loving how I'm going to die to "gut feelings", when nobody can present an actual case on me, whereas I HAVE presented a case for Zxcvbn2, that is backed up by both dethy, and  old-fashioned scumreads.

I don't blame CF. He's either Mafia or being led blind on absolutely nothing. Just goes to show you, logic means absolute squat in these games.

 

I am open to anything, because I am nowhere near certain on anybody, not even Yuma. My vote right now is for Galzria, because I didn't like his attitude earlier, or his certainty (along with O) that Z was mafia. I didn't really buy the case against Z. I couldn't imagine Z actually hammering if he were scum, and I don't like that Galzria didn't follow the night plan.

But anyway, that's all I've got. I would change my vote, yes, if compelling reasons were given.

Not buying a case is fine. But it's the only case there is. Nobody has presented a case on anybody else based on logic or scumtells.

Not liking my use of Night Action is fine. Give me a reason why I would come in here, claim first, claim to have not followed a list, and claimed a dead man instead of a living, WHEN I could've complied with all of those by simply lying?

Your reasons for voting me are terrible, illogical, and only consistent withscum Robz play who knows he can't do better because he has no real argument.

[Robz888]

Okay, well, you did these things so that you could claim as your defense that it makes no sense for you to do those things. Because it also doesn't make sense for you to not follow either of the two night plans that were laid out for you.

[Galzria]

Okay, well, you did these things so that you could claim as your defense that it makes no sense for you to do those things. Because it also doesn't make sense for you to not follow either of the two night plans that were laid out for you.

But that makes no sense! If I were Mafia, the easiest way to avoid suspicion no matter WHAT I did would be to claim I targeted you! Claiming anything else gains me nothing. That's my point - the claim is I did it to create a WIFOM scenario... But doing that as scum in this situation gains me nothing I could've had EASIER by just claiming to target you.

Given that you STILL can't give me an actual reason for my doing so, I stand by my statements that there is no case against me. You've got a reputation for decent logic when town and looking for scum. You've also been known to put together weak cases (Morgrim) when scum. This "argument" against me is completely the latter. It's straw-man at BEST.

[Galzria]

Also, I have yet to see a reason given why I should've followed a list. The moment Zxcvbn posted a second list the entire operation was compromised. At the point a single person casts a vote from one list, and another person casts an action from the other, the entire plan is invalidated. My "not following either" does not increase or decrease the likelihood of my being scum and lying about what I did (I would argue it decreases the odds, but won't hold others to assume that logic).

The point is, the fact that I was targeted TWICE proves the invalidation of the method. It only works when pairs are equal 1 and 1. After that second list was posted, it was as good as random.

[Robz888]

I'm not exactly staking my reputation on accusing you here, Galzria. I understand what you're saying. You've just, you're so, "THERE IS NO WAY I WOULD DO THIS OH MY GOODNESS OBVIOUSLY WHY WOULD I CREATE THIS CONUNDRUM BLARGH."

I can picture you telling your scum partner in the night that this is the plan, and no one will ever argue against it, because it makes no sense for you to do it. And you've been really, really, really quick to counter-accuse me for suspecting you.

I also just don't like the case against Z very much. Don't know what else to tell you.

[Galzria]

I'm not exactly staking my reputation on accusing you here, Galzria. I understand what you're saying. You've just, you're so, "THERE IS NO WAY I WOULD DO THIS OH MY GOODNESS OBVIOUSLY WHY WOULD I CREATE THIS CONUNDRUM BLARGH."

I can picture you telling your scum partner in the night that this is the plan, and no one will ever argue against it, because it makes no sense for you to do it. And you've been really, really, really quick to counter-accuse me for suspecting you.

I also just don't like the case against Z very much. Don't know what else to tell you.

It didn't start out as "THERE'S NO WAY...", It started with simple requests to provide me a reason I would've done that, seeing as it makes no sense to me. See, I'm being accused of something without a reason given as to why I would do it.

If I'm going to be accused, I want to know why. After I've asked and not been provided anything satisfactory 4 times, I start to believe those making the accusations are scum trying to pin a case that's nonexistent.

[jotheonah]

"Did anyone see that?" asked Robz888. "Zxcvbn2's face. It ... changed."
"What are you talking about?" asked the Chancellor. "Who's zxcvbn2?"
"Yeah," said ehunt. "Let's get back to finding those familiars."


Vote Count

ehunt[1] -  O
Galzria[2] - Robz888, ehunt

not voting - yuma, Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[ehunt]

frisk oh man, logic. hard. Sorry.  perl script seems hopeless. I got nothing.

Apologies for the following hilariously stupid mafia sentence, but: all the math/"logic" (really "high-probability = true", so not logic) in this post is based on my knowledge that I am town. Math is completely off if you aren't willing to spot me that, but hear me out.

I think it's almost certain that I have a night kill, i.e. I am either golem or alchemist. The only way this could be wrong is if
1. (probability assumed to be 1/8) the mafia attacked Insomniac
and one of
[
2. (probability  is exactly 1/6) i am stoned philosopher (any other role either i have a night kill or insomniac should have survived).
OR
3. (probability is about 1/8) i was jailed.
]
actually it's a little smaller since in scenario 3 it's still conceivable that i have a nightkill. At the end of the day, I get about a 3.3% chance that I don't have a night kill.

This is why I am a particularly bad mislynch. (At Frisk,  I also think we have to assume that TINAS targeted O or Frisk and Insomniac targeted me. There may be other fringe scenarios that I am missing, but all of them are sort of x did unlikely thing AND y did unlikely thing scenarios, i.e. scenarios with probability not amassing more than a percentage or two. )

Now, here is where the logic gets interesting. It's a good bet that I have a night kill. Given this, there is only one other player who is a townie with a night kill! What other player could be a townie with a night kill? It almost certainly wasn't Insomniac. Otherwise, I would probably be dead, since we're assuming I wasn't jailed and I have kill power.

[Deleted a long, mathematially bunk argument that one of Galz and Frisk is lying.] Unvote by the way.

tl;dr I believe that I have a night kill. If yall believe I am a townie, yall should certainly also believe I have a night kill.

[Galzria]

Basically, this:

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AkWRw_TWc_cwdDN2Y3I2X1l1eUJXXzB0aUdlNHIxdUE

[ehunt]

just realized my argument was not mathematically bunk! Moreover, you don't have to believe me when I say I'm town to believe that at least one of Frisk and Galzria is lying

here is a nice math question. Suppose a townie is the target of two random townies. What is the probability that this player dies
a. in the scenario that he is not targeted by the mafia
b. in the scenario that he is targeted by the mafia

to compute we go over the 15 possible pairs

poss + apoth. a. live b. live
poss + app a. live b. live
poss + SP a. live b. live
poss + golem a. live b. live
poss + alch a. live b. live
apoth + app a. live b. live
apoth + SP a. live b. live
apoth + golem a. live b. live (per rules clarification post #12)
apoth + alch a. live b. die
app + SP a. live b. live
app + golem a. live b. live
app + alch a. live b. die
SP + golem a. die b. live
SP + alch a. die b. die
Golem + alch a. live b. die

side light-hearted remark i am glad there is no scrying pool in this game. serious remark i am exhausted and although i double checked that list i may have computed wrong; please correct it!

Let's look at the columns, and let's consider TINAS. If the mafia didn't attack TINAS (most likely scenario, probability 7/8), we see that the odds that both Frisk and Galzria are telling the truth are just 2/15. If the mafia did attack TINAS, the odds still just creep up to 4/15.

OK, but, you say, jailkeepers. Fine. There is a 1/4 chance that one of them was jailkept (slightly less, but both were targets of at most 2 town actors). In the event that one of them was jailkept, we have the scenarios that the other was

Apoth a. live b. live
App a. live b. live
SP a. live b. die
Golem a. die b. live
Alch a. die b. die

i.e. still just a 2/5 probability that TINAS lives if they're both telling the truth.

In short, the probability that they're both telling the truth is well-approximated, and if anything overestimated (b/c jail probability is lower than 1/4) by the quantity

(3/4)( (7/8)(2/15) + (1/8)(4/15)) + (1/4)(2/5) = 21%

i.e. we have an 80% chance that at least one of them is lying.

[ehunt]

Vote: Galzria

I think we should get rid of one of this pair. If he flips town I will use my nightkill on the other. Don't know who I should attack if he flips scum.

[O]

I think it's almost certain that I have a night kill, i.e. I am either golem or alchemist. The only way this could be wrong is if
1. (probability assumed to be 1/8) the mafia attacked Insomniac

Lolwat. Dead townie, mafia wont self select = 1/5 chance mafia attacked insomniac, higher when you realize that insomniac is dead affects probability.

Also, Insomniac had a 1/6 chance of targeting mafia.

Also, we're assuming your town in this math, but ignoring that we still have 1/5 +1/6 = 11/30 = >1/3rd chance that the mafia directly or indirectly contributed, not 1/8. Plus conditional probability.

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

I think we should get rid of one of this pair. If he flips town I will use my nightkill on the other. Don't know who I should attack if he flips scum.

But here's what you didn't mention:

If CF is your Mafia partner, then you both know that he did nothing last night. This would mean that I am a killing role, or stoned philosopher (if TINAS was the Apprentice and targeted Scum CF). So killing me guarantees you a win, as the chances of anybody being left alive that can kill are fairly slim.

Still, if the decision is to kill me, I can't stop you. But seeing as I'll flip town, I get to dictate who targets who.

[ehunt]

I think it's almost certain that I have a night kill, i.e. I am either golem or alchemist. The only way this could be wrong is if
1. (probability assumed to be 1/8) the mafia attacked Insomniac

Lolwat. Dead townie, mafia wont self select = 1/5 chance mafia attacked insomniac, higher when you realize that insomniac is dead affects probability.

Also, Insomniac had a 1/6 chance of targeting mafia.

Also, we're assuming your town in this math, but ignoring that we still have 1/5 +1/6 = 11/30 = >1/3rd chance that the mafia directly or indirectly contributed, not 1/8. Plus conditional probability.

you're right on the 1/5. So my odds of my having a night kill are not as high as I claimed (still above 80%)

I assume Insomniac targets me so would not die if apprentice.

The possibility that TINAS is apprentice though is going to lightly screw up my next post... which is especially frustrating, but only by a couple percentage points, but still in the pro-galz-frisk direction.

Obviously probabilities are estimates and lots of things are conditional on other things, which is ignored. The point of both posts is that these estimates lead to overwhelming results which shouldn't be ignored just because you can conceive of a scenario in which they are false.

[ehunt]

@O, yes, if you dont spot that i'm town, all the arguments in the first of my two math posts can be ignored. not in the second

@Galz i mean i am happy for frisk to be the lynch if there's a reason that's better than you - go for it! i'm even happy to PICK AT RANDOM BETWEEN YOU AND FRISK using something like timestamps. the reason i voted you is that others seem to be doing so for sociological reasons.

[ehunt]

math in second post also wrong b/c put mafia in eighths and not fifths once again and this makes galz and frisk look worse than necessary. will post correction shortly. still upper bound chances 4/15 that both are telling the truth.

[ehunt]

this time i get

(3/4)( (4/5)(2/15) + (1/5)(4/15)) + (1/4)(2/5) = 22%

odds that both tell the truth. That percentage should probably go up a little for the unlikely case that TINAS was apprentice and targeted mafia.

for the record i am a mathematician. . .I just happen to suck a little at it. I'm sure there are other missing assumptions. Please take my argument and this model seriously; compute for yourselves.

[Galzria]

@O, yes, if you dont spot that i'm town, all the arguments in the first of my two math posts can be ignored. not in the second

@Galz i mean i am happy for frisk to be the lynch if there's a reason that's better than you - go for it! i'm even happy to PICK AT RANDOM BETWEEN YOU AND FRISK using something like timestamps. the reason i voted you is that others seem to be doing so for sociological reasons.

Well, except obviously the argument I made works both ways. He would say the same thing if his name were on the chopping block. It goes in circles.

Let's look at things another way. You want me to spot you an argument that you're town, well do the same for me:

I'm town. Yuma is town (if he's not, we're all more or less screwed anyway, since past events leave him town to everybody). If O were Mafia and voting with me, he would have a partner out there in you (unlikely, as his vote is on you), Robz (unlikely, as they've been butting heads and are on opposite wagons that are both stalled), or CF.

CF has been leaning towards me, but is undecided. Yuma would follow if he voted. If O and CF were partners, you would be lynched by now. Since there's no likely candidate for O to be scum with, he's town as well.

Now, there are 3 of you left, and 2 scum. My odds of hitting scum are pretty good with a random vote. Each of you say you're town, so I can't weigh that. What I CAN weigh however, is what roles each of you COULD be:

You have 4 (SP is fairly unlikely though).
CF has 6
Robz has 7

The odds overwhelmingly say that you are scum here, based on the number of ways things can fall into place. Could they be wrong? Sure. But it's not likely.

[Galzria]

Here's the other thing you didn't calculate in:

In 0% of the setups, the Possessor is one of the following:

CF, Insomniac, Myself, You. ftl

This means that one of four IS:

Robz, O, Yuma, TINAS

Two of those targeted me. One targeted CF. The other we're not sure.

I was jailed 50% of the time - CF was jailed 37.5% of the time.

In either case, one of us being jailed is HIGHLY likely.

[Galzria]

Small detraction to the above numbers:

Insomniac COULD be the Possessor if Mafia decided to target him. But as you've noted, that's a small probability.

[ehunt]

fresh points:

0. Galz - you are right that I should adjust my jail probabilities and when I factor in the correct ones, this will make you and Frisk look substantially better. I will do this in a forthcoming post (need coffee).

1. The Galz/Frisk ambiguity that you point out is why we should random-lynch of one of the two of you, NKing the other if you come up town.

2. This is important to others, sorry if I worded this confusingly, but the "one of Galz or Frisk is mafia" post does not depend on an assumption that I am not mafia. The "I have a night kill" post does.

3. I am engaging in the prosecutor's fallacy, namely I am computing the probability TINAS dies given that you are both telling the truth, when what is relevant is the probability that you are telling the truth, given that TINAS died, and this needs to be corrected.

4. Mafia might not quickhammer due to the presence of night shots.

[ehunt]

Making the adjustments to the calculations based on points in previous post. tl;dr my argument is much weaker than i thought

For point 0. probably that one of them is possessed, let's put it at 90%, which is a little high but ballpark estimate. Now we get

(1/10)( (4/5)(2/15) + (1/5)(4/15)) + (9/10)(2/5) = 37.6%

which is much better for them.

For point 3, Bayes's theorem says that to compute the probability that they are both telling the truth, given that TINAS died, I need to multiply by the prior probability that they are both telling the truth and divide by the prior probability that Tinas died.


The prior probability that they are both telling the truth is the same as the probability that the mafia are distributed among the other four of us, i.e. is 4 choose 2 divided by 6 choose 2, which is 6/15.

The prior probability that Tinas died is unfortunately (say if the role madness happened at "random") is too difficult to compute. I think a reasonable guess is 1/4, in which case it's very conceivable that Galz/CF both are telling the truth (something like 60%!).

I am back to square one and clueless with little time left.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - today I'm going to do a pairs analysis.  I'm going to look at all 30 possible mafia pairings, give each one a 5 point rating on reasonableness of the pairing (naturally this is based on gut feel), and determine which people are most likely to be mafia based on this.

Examples

Galzria + ZXC: 1 - extremely unlikely given that they are both voting for eachother.
O + ZXC: 2 - O could be bussing, but still unlikley given that O is voting for ZXC

I'll do it 2 ways: 1 from a neutral observer, and another with the knowledge from my role pm.

[Captain_Frisk]

Even better - there are only 15.  Forgot about ordering

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok that was fast.  This is actually a very symmetric problem.

We have 2 wagons.  Each wagon target is a "dangerous" person.  Each wagon has a "safe" person on it. 

Here were my scores for everyone as a neutral observer:

RobZ + O: 16 points
Everyone else: 13 points

Basically, I gave 1 point to the pairings of Galzria + eHunt / ZXC.    I also gave 1 point to the pairing of me + Yuma - as it really seems that we should have just killed someone if we were both mafia.  The town isn't going to lynch anyone without one of us.

Then - I gave 4 points to the Galz + O and eHunt + RobZ pairings. 
These are plausible, if slightly obvious. 

I gave 2 points to any pairing that resulted in one partner voting on the other. (O+eHunt, RobZ+Galzria)  It seemed slightly unlikely, but still reasonably plausible.

Pairings involving yuma and I + any other voter else I gave a 3.  They are perfectly plausible. 

Finally - I gave 4 points to the most interesting pairing: RobZ + O.  My original notes were "this would be amazing to pull off: 2 stalled wagons pointing at town" - with 2 townies forced to pick one

I went back and checked to see how this could have happened.

(1) Galz votes for eHunt - (town on town vote)
(2) O votes for eHunt (mafia on town votee)
this sets it perfectly for RobZ
(3) RobZ swoops in and votes on Galz (mafia on town vote)

Interestingly - when I removed any pairings involving me - Galzria and eHunt have the least # of points

O / RobZ: 13 points
yuma: 12 points
Galzria / eHunt: 10 points

Try it out everyone - the spreadsheet took about 5 minutes to put together

[ehunt]

@Frisk could you elaborate on methodology? you put a scumminess number next to each person, add them together for a pair, then some pairs get a scum-bonus for synergistic reasons?

[ehunt]

OK, sorry to be so slow on the uptake and so post-y. It's a hard game with lots of logic and lots of fake logic.

From y'alls perspective I am very similar to a vig who has claimed in a typical mafia game (read vig as either vig or golem). Either I am mafia, or I am a townie with a night kill. The only difference is that there's a chance that I'm telling the truth and yet I don't have a night kill. I don't know what you want to do with a vig claim in such a game, but that's the best way to think of me, I think.

Can someone give a brief summary of why Yuma is in the clear? (This is not a FoS or sarcasm.)

[Captain_Frisk]

@Frisk could you elaborate on methodology? you put a scumminess number next to each person, add them together for a pair, then some pairs get a scum-bonus for synergistic reasons?

I put together all 15 pairs - and assigned a number from 1 (least likely to be a realistic mafia pair) to 5 (damn sure this is the mafia pair).  I then summed the numbers for each person individually.  So - for example

My pairs were:
Me + Galz: 3: Although I could have pushed for an eHunt lynch
Me + RobZ: 3: plausible
Me + Yuma: 1: We could have hammered town and gone for the win - especially since we'd have our choice of which plan to follow
me + ehunt: 3: plausible
me + O: 3 plausible

From an outside observer - I could certainly be mafia with anyone other than Yuma I think - and maybe I was just slow playing the decision because I didn't trust yuma to hammer with me.  (In reality - I am town and I didn't want to expose a hammer opportunity to yuma when I wasn't convinced one way or another on the Galz / eHunt debate)

My total score: 13 points.

[Galzria]

Yuma is largely in the clear for me because

A) He wasn't on the ftl lynch wagon (one of two left alive who can claim this)
B) He has the most options left available to him on the chart for things he could be
C) In general the way he's played. If he's Mafia, he knows I'm town, yet hasn't moved to lynch me (and he's had all the time he wants). Nobody could accuse him of a hasty lynch if he had anyway. Heck, even I wouldn't blame him for doing it at this point. So he's basically had the all-clear to lynch (because your predecessor has said basically the same thing) for as long as he's needed. If he were Mafia he would've made his move by now. Indecision is a town tell, not scum.

[Galzria]

eHunt, I know it's not fair to ask you this, but looking back I found this:

 

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

Perhaps you disagree, and that's fine. I won't hold you to this statement by your predecessor, but can you give me a reason why it would've been said? Certainly the second part is important if it helps us with the first part... But otherwise I could care less who is who... Right?

Was it just a bad choice of words, or do you think there's merit in how scummy it looks?

(Looking for an honest answer here - I won't hold however you feel against you as these were not your words. I'm just curious if you, or others, find this sort of statement off-beat. (I hate replacement gaming. ))

[Galzria]

Alright, deadline is approaching quickly. More IIoA here, and probably nothing terribly new, but my list of willing to lynch to not:

Would like to:
eHunt, Robz, CF

(I feel a random vote hits 66% of the time, and I think listed in that order, I've got a better than random chance)

Would rather not:
O

(If he's Mafia, his partner is Robz or CF - both in the first list and better choices for me by far, given that, perhaps I should flip the ordering of eHunt and Robz... Hmm...)

Won't vote for:

Yuma, Galzria

(Well, I'm town and if I had to pick one person to trust, it would be Yuma for the reasons listed in a prior post. Even on the OUTSIDE chance he's scum, and I picked randomly from above (because at that point his partner could be anyone but me) I would hit scum 25% of the time. Not great, but considering I REALLY don't think Yuma is Mafia, not a likely situation either).

And that's where I'm at.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why does yuma get an indecision pass - but I don't?

[ehunt]

eHunt, I know it's not fair to ask you this, but looking back I found this:

 

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

Perhaps you disagree, and that's fine. I won't hold you to this statement by your predecessor, but can you give me a reason why it would've been said? Certainly the second part is important if it helps us with the first part... But otherwise I could care less who is who... Right?

Was it just a bad choice of words, or do you think there's merit in how scummy it looks?

(Looking for an honest answer here - I won't hold however you feel against you as these were not your words. I'm just curious if you, or others, find this sort of statement off-beat. (I hate replacement gaming. ))

@Galz it's perfectly defensible to make me defend anything zxc said, since zxc and i have the same information. in this case he's wrong in the logical sense (i.e. if we JUST KNEW who mafia were and not what our powers were, we'd win the game anyway) but right in the moral sense (the best shot for winning the game is to figure out what our powers are). i don't think his wording sounds like a scumslip but it is hard to be objective.

[Galzria]

eHunt, I know it's not fair to ask you this, but looking back I found this:

 

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

Perhaps you disagree, and that's fine. I won't hold you to this statement by your predecessor, but can you give me a reason why it would've been said? Certainly the second part is important if it helps us with the first part... But otherwise I could care less who is who... Right?

Was it just a bad choice of words, or do you think there's merit in how scummy it looks?

(Looking for an honest answer here - I won't hold however you feel against you as these were not your words. I'm just curious if you, or others, find this sort of statement off-beat. (I hate replacement gaming. ))

@Galz it's perfectly defensible to make me defend anything zxc said, since zxc and i have the same information. in this case he's wrong in the logical sense (i.e. if we JUST KNEW who mafia were and not what our powers were, we'd win the game anyway) but right in the moral sense (the best shot for winning the game is to figure out what our powers are). i don't think his wording sounds like a scumslip but it is hard to be objective.

That's fine. Like I said, it's hard for ME to hold you to words written by Zxcvbn. It's just... Something I have trouble with personally.

Even so, I really just wanted to resurface the quote in case others feel it's worthy of note.

[Galzria]

Why does yuma get an indecision pass - but I don't?

You were on the ftl wagon and he wasn't. If it was objective from just today, you would. But I pushed for the ftl lynch based on the fact that if he flipped town, it cast a greater suspicion on those of us on the wagon (myself included).

[ehunt]

1. Spotting yuma's innocence, I'm 50-50 looking at a pool of four suspects, in that pool, two people are in my same situation, and two other people are mafia just laughing at my math. I am happy to vote for any of the four with 50-50 odds, which are pretty good. Lean toward Frisk and Galz but my math there changed so much based on the Bayesian rethinking that I will have to recompute from scratch before being willing to vote.

2. If Galz is town, I'm not convinced mafia would quickhammer Galz since they know (or are reasonably certain) that he's not vig and a quickhammer is asking for a NK. They might hammer him but they'd know it wasn't GG so they'd hedge - it wouldn't be a quickhammer. Mafia absolutely would quickhammer me, though, because they know that I am (highly likely to be) vig (or golem), and the other vig/golem, if alive, doesn't know his power which means he effectively can't night kill (town would have to get ridiculously lucky - vig guesses he's vig and targets mafia; legit doctors don't guess they're vig and so don't target mafia).

Long-story-short: I will not reject a pair off-hand just because they could have hammered Galz. I will lower suspicions of a pair on the basis that they could be hammering me, but I will not reject them altogether, because there's an off-chance that this pair sees the odds differently from the way i see them, fearing a very lucky town win at night more than a change in the tides that gets one of them lynched today.

3. Whomever we lynch, or even if there's no lynch, the most important thing to me is my night kill. I am a dead horse on this but only because I feel it has not been properly acknowledged. Again I am happy to use it on whomever we agree upon. Note that it doesn't matter if I'm golem or alchemist (assuming no lone wolf backstabber townies). If we do this, we should use conditional statements (like "IF the lynchee turns up town, then use the kill on ___") and not unconditional ones. If you hammer before we set this up I will policy night kill you.

[Galzria]

1. Spotting yuma's innocence, I'm 50-50 looking at a pool of four suspects, in that pool, two people are in my same situation, and two other people are mafia just laughing at my math. I am happy to vote for any of the four with 50-50 odds, which are pretty good. Lean toward Frisk and Galz but my math there changed so much based on the Bayesian rethinking that I will have to recompute from scratch before being willing to vote.

2. If Galz is town, I'm not convinced mafia would quickhammer Galz since they know (or are reasonably certain) that he's not vig and a quickhammer is asking for a NK. They might hammer him but they'd know it wasn't GG so they'd hedge - it wouldn't be a quickhammer. Mafia absolutely would quickhammer me, though, because they know that I am (highly likely to be) vig (or golem), and the other vig/golem, if alive, doesn't know his power which means he effectively can't night kill (town would have to get ridiculously lucky - vig guesses he's vig and targets mafia; legit doctors don't guess they're vig and so don't target mafia).

Long-story-short: I will not reject a pair off-hand just because they could have hammered Galz. I will lower suspicions of a pair on the basis that they could be hammering me, but I will not reject them altogether, because there's an off-chance that this pair sees the odds differently from the way i see them, fearing a very lucky town win at night more than a change in the tides that gets one of them lynched today.

3. Whomever we lynch, or even if there's no lynch, the most important thing to me is my night kill. I am a dead horse on this but only because I feel it has not been properly acknowledged. Again I am happy to use it on whomever we agree upon. Note that it doesn't matter if I'm golem or alchemist (assuming no lone wolf backstabber townies). If we do this, we should use conditional statements (like "IF the lynchee turns up town, then use the kill on ___") and not unconditional ones. If you hammer before we set this up I will policy night kill you.

To your last point, this was done a few pages back (3 or 4), where each person produced a list of night actions for the town to take based on them getting lynched. The assumption was: if the flip is Mafia, do nothing (thus we hit tomorrow up 3-1). If the flip is town, we follow their orders since their reveal is now trustworthy.

[Galzria]

For example, if I'm lynched (this is revised based on new math I hadn't considered (ie. Jailing), I would have Robz and Yuma target you, giving them a 50% chance of jailing you. I would go on the assumption that I was jailed, and have CF target Robz since he's likely to have a killing role (if I was jailed, CF most likely inadvertently killed TINAS).

That just leaves you and O. I would have O target nobody. I can't count on the nature of his role, and I don't want to inadvertently mess something up (by protecting a Mafia, or killing a townie). He could PROBABLY target you, but I wouldn't want to risk it.

You would be assigned to Robz. I doubt that assignment would matter, but on the off chance you're town as well as me and don't get jailed, a shot fired at Robz seems appropriate since he's almost certainly scum at that point.

Yuma targets: eHunt
Robz targets: eHunt
CF targets: Robz
eHunt targets: Robz
O targets: Nobody

This (hopefully) jails one Mafia and kills another.

[ehunt]

OK. I don't like zxc's contingency plan for a zxc lynch. The problem is that the other vig doesn't really know who he is, and if two people think they're the other vig, they probably don't kill the target because both target him. If I'm lynched I think it's GG for the mafia. They'd have to get really unlucky to get killed by the other vig tonight. The other vig has to guess who he is and nobody else gets to erroneously guess who he is. However, I guess the contingency plan should be this:

--> before the lynch, figure out who is most likely to be the other vig, given that I am vig (do not answer this by saying "but what if you are mafia?" we are making a contingency plan for when i am mislynched, at which point you will know for certain). make this a loud public discussion; make sure that everyone acknowledges this person is indeed most likely to be second vig.

--> pray that you are right (I think you have roughly 1/4 - 1/3 odds, maybe a little higher due to the 1/10 chance or so that i'm not the vig).

--> have that person target the most likely mafia, which is one of the two on my wagon now (Galz, O). (Again using my argument above that Mafia should have hammered me if they could have.)

--> as for everybody else, if we miscompute the second vig then we don't want him shooting a townie but the chance that we win is basically 0 at that point anyway. i would say everyone disclose and then protect a townie at your discretion, but we really don't want the apprentice dying in the case of a miscomputation, so i suspect everyone out of apprentice paranoia would just target yuma, but then mafia would nightkill someone besides yuma, which they'd probably do anyway, WIFOM.


tl;dr contingency plan:
we probably just lose if i'm lynched
town publicly agrees on most likely second vig before i'm lynched
second vig shoots one of (Galz/O), at second vig's discretion or town vote, I don't care
others are tricky, still thinking.

[ehunt]

@jo what is the rule for twilight talk between a lynch and the official post from the moderator locking the thread?

[jotheonah]

Pretty much go nuts, but there's no guarantee you'll have any amount of time at all. So I wouldn't count on it.

[yuma]

Guys, I just don't know.

I'll be honest, I am not very good at math. I really struggle with it. So I am not getting much out of all of the math posts, especially when they end up being "bad" or when they contradict. I know it is important to take that side of it into consideration when playing this game, but a lot of it is over my head.

Here is where I am at:

I was about to vote for zxcvbn but didn't because his lynch plan was apparently no good and I was going to wait for him to come back with another one. ehunt arriving has complicated things--not necessarily for the worse as we are getting good conversations out of it. I still think the argument for Galz is relatively weak, well it isn't any stronger than ones for anyone else.

[ehunt]

@yuma, my math has been a distraction for the most part, and I'm sorry for that. I thought I had a damning case against frisk/galz, but I didn't.

For all the posts I've made here, the only math I am asking people to believe is this sentence:

If I am town, then there is a very high probability that I have the ability to night kill.


I have argued that as a consequence of this sentence, it's unstrategic to kill me; that's opinion, and not fact, but I believe the sentence itself to be a hard fact, such that even players who think I'm most likely scum should agree with it if they do the computation. Can I get a confirmation from others that this sentence is true?

[Captain_Frisk]

That depends on your definition of very high.

[Galzria]

Eh, you killed Insomniac, one way or another. There is a VERY unlikely chance of you being SP and the Mafia targeting Insomniac, but it's not likely.

While your statement is true, prefaced with "If I'm town", the altering statement "You have the highest likelihood of being scum of anybody in town, through process of elimination on the other roles you could be" is also true.

Equally as bad for town: If you're lying, and CF is your partner, you KNOW that I am a Vig role. Killing me in this case presents the same statement you are making now.

One of us three is Scum. One of us three has a killing power (maybe 2). Your statement is not particularly unique to you, so I can't really weigh it as a reason not to lynch you.

[Captain_Frisk]

There are some scenarios in which zHuntcx didn't kill Insomniac:

1.  Insomniac didn't follow either list - and inherited weak doctor powers from ftl.
2.  zHunt is useless doctor - and the mafia killed Insomniac

Question for you galz:

You note that it would be easier as mafia to claim you targeted someone who lived - so you can't be mafia because you never would have claimed targeting someone who died.

Correct?

Why does the same thing not apply to eHunt and I?  If you make the assumption that eHunt is mafia - why would he have killed insomniac - the person that he was supposed to target?  Why not target someone else - and claim to be a nice doctor?  It's true that he may have done this (hell, he may have killed TINAS) and the only reason why insomniac ended up dead was inheriting the weak doctor protection.

All of our suspicion has been on people who have announced that that people they targeted are dead.  That seems like a bad place to be as mafia.  As mafia wouldn't you rather have a safer claim like RobZs or O's? 

Also clearing yuma for not voting on ftl seems weak.  I don't think we were near pressure lynching time - so as mafia yuma could sit back and do nothing.

[ehunt]

@galz I don't think that TINAS establishes either of you as kill power (given that you are telling the truth) as much as Insomniac establishes me (given that I am telling the truth). However, I do see this as a reason to vote on someone other than {Galz, Frisk, ehunt}.

@rest of the town if you think there are two mafia in that set, then who do you think is a townie with the power to kill?

[ehunt]

All of our suspicion has been on people who have announced that that people they targeted are dead.  That seems like a bad place to be as mafia.  As mafia wouldn't you rather have a safer claim like RobZs or O's? 

This. I think we should vote O. (note this is not a vote).

[Galzria]

@CF,

I've covered this already for Zxcvbn - I'll answer your question with a question: How likely is it Zxcvbn would make a list IN HIS HAMMER POST, and then at first opportunity D2 claim "No, I targeted someone different... Uhh, Robz!"

Only one (of a maximum 3) extra NK's that could have occurred based on random killing is a decent outcome for town.

As for you, yes, you could've claimed to have followed the other list and hit someone who lived (who was your other target choice?) This is a point in your favor. Doesn't clear you (as it doesn't clear me in your eyes), but it does help make you not my #1 or #2 choice.

[Captain_Frisk]

I still don't buy that as mafia - I'd create a separate list - and then go kill the person on it.  Much more likely that I'd kill someone else than the person I'm supposed to be targeting.

[Galzria]

All of our suspicion has been on people who have announced that that people they targeted are dead.  That seems like a bad place to be as mafia.  As mafia wouldn't you rather have a safer claim like RobZs or O's? 

This. I think we should vote O. (note this is not a vote).

I've made it clear Robz is second on my lynch list. If I got lynched, he was the person I set up to attempt to kill (by having you and CF target him at night, in the hopes that I was not the one with the killing role - Even if one of you is lying, he could still die to the other).

I would not be opposed to lynching Robz. I wouldn't vote O or Yuma at this point.

[ehunt]

is there a scenario under which robz lynch loses us the game? if we robz lynch and he is guilty, who do i night kill?

[Galzria]

I still don't buy that as mafia - I'd create a separate list - and then go kill the person on it.  Much more likely that I'd kill someone else than the person I'm supposed to be targeting.

And risk being blocked because you have no idea what's going to happen to anybody else? What a great Mafia move...

[Galzria]

is there a scenario under which robz lynch loses us the game? if we robz lynch and he is guilty, who do i night kill?

Nobody.

Whoever we lynch, if they come up scum, should result in NOBODY using their powers.

We have 4 town, there would be 1 Mafia. If we don't defend, we walk away up 3-1 tomorrow. If we start dabbling around trying to protect/kill, we're much more likely to do harm than good, and we're ALREADY in a decent spot.

[ehunt]

I don't understand your preference for Robz over O. Is it just because Robz voted for you and O is voting for me?

[Captain_Frisk]

I still don't buy that as mafia - I'd create a separate list - and then go kill the person on it.  Much more likely that I'd kill someone else than the person I'm supposed to be targeting.

And risk being blocked because you have no idea what's going to happen to anybody else? What a great Mafia move...

There's going to be blood no matter what!  Putting your kill on top of someone elses lets you learn something about your "partners" power. 

Lets say I'm mafia.

I know that zxc is targeting Insomniac.

I put my kill on insomniac.

Insomniac doesn't die.  Now I know that ZXC is a protective role, and I can kill him next round or I can frame him for suspicion.  Even though I've given up a kill, I've helped isolate the known role powers - so that I can hopefully steer things in a way that the truly dangerous people don't kill me or my scum buddy.

[yuma]

Robz was also second on my list after zxcvbn. I have said I would be willing to vote for him more than I would be willing to vote for Galz or Frisk or O.

Part of my reasoning behind this was because I think it is unlikely that the first lynch went through with both mafia members on it. I said when I first brought this point up that I was surprised no one else had done so before, especially Robz. In fact I alluded that if he were mafia he might remain silent about it to avoid bringing suspicion down on himself as he brought it down on me? But again that is purely speculative.

If we assume only 1 mafia member was on the lynch wagon, which I consider fairly likely, then one out of the 2 remaining players (me and Robz) would also have to be mafia. I am not, therefore Robz would be the one remaining.

What do others think about the likelyhood of both mafia members being on the lynch wagon? High or low? If low, Robz's chances of being mafia jump dramatically for me.

Did we ever get a night plan from Robz?

[Robz888]

I'm here. I don't think I've given a night plan. I don't see why I should, since I don't have a good idea of who should do what.

[Captain_Frisk]

So then if we lynch you - you'd rather have us flounder?

[Galzria]

I don't understand your preference for Robz over O. Is it just because Robz voted for you and O is voting for me?

It isn't Robz's vote on me, it's his case against me... Or rather his lack of one. I've played as his scum partner in M-II. I watched the arguments he made there. Even during that game (in part to distance myself from him) I called out how weak his arguments were - and I wasn't lying. It's part of what earned me town cred.

I've also watched M-I and M-III closely. I've seen the cases a TOWN Robz makes. Right or wrong he always provides solid reasoning behind his thinking. It's never just "eh, that's how I feel".

His case here against me boils down to "I just have a gut feeling" - "I don't like that you didn't follow either list" (different than "I have reason to suspect you're lying, because of _____") - and "I can't give you a reason, but you would've known that would be true, which is exactly why you did it" (This in response to the one question I've asked of him).

It's nothing but straw-man arguments AT BEST. It's exactly how he went after Morgrim, except Morgrim wouldn't/wasn't capable of defending himself by pointing out how weak his arguments are.

---

As for O, he's at least given me the impression he was taking this game more seriously, even from D1 when he wasn't acting like standard 'ol O. I'm not dismissing him as a scum possibility, but I just don't see it as being as likely as Robz. He's not in my "Want to lynch", but is certainly not in my "Must rely on being town" list either.

[yuma]

I'm here. I don't think I've given a night plan. I don't see why I should, since I don't have a good idea of who should do what.

Vote:Robz

[Robz888]

I'm here. I don't think I've given a night plan. I don't see why I should, since I don't have a good idea of who should do what.

Vote:Robz

How exciting! I've never been lynched before.

[ehunt]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

[Galzria]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

I second that, and hate his response to Yuma's vote. Not voting myself until he responds though.

[Robz888]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

I don't have a contingency plan.

Besides, if I try to tell you all what to do, I don't think anybody is actually right about what they think their power is. I mean, whoever has the killing powers should kill Galzria, who I suspect is mafia alongside O or Frisk. But if someone targets Galzria, they are just as likely to save him as kill him.

One final argument for why it's Galzria: He tried to make a helpful chart, after I already did. Over-the-top unnecessarily helpful Galzria is mafia Galzria, as anybody from MII would know.

That's all. Adios, amigos. I think we screwed up Day 1 and were pretty much doomed from there.

[ehunt]

OK, Yuma, who should everybody target if Robz flips town?

[Galzria]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

I don't have a contingency plan.

Besides, if I try to tell you all what to do, I don't think anybody is actually right about what they think their power is. I mean, whoever has the killing powers should kill Galzria, who I suspect is mafia alongside O or Frisk. But if someone targets Galzria, they are just as likely to save him as kill him.

One final argument for why it's Galzria: He tried to make a helpful chart, after I already did. Over-the-top unnecessarily helpful Galzria is mafia Galzria, as anybody from MII would know.

That's all. Adios, amigos. I think we screwed up Day 1 and were pretty much doomed from there.

You mean the chart YOU ASKED me to make?

 

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

Vote: Robz888

[Captain_Frisk]

To be fair Mr. Galzria - you didn't react super well to being told to come up with a plan either.

I will not produce a list unless Yuma asks me to. Yuma is the closest thing to confirmed town in my mind.

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ: Will you make a list?

[Galzria]

To be fair Mr. Galzria - you didn't react super well to being told to come up with a plan either.

I will not produce a list unless Yuma asks me to. Yuma is the closest thing to confirmed town in my mind.

To be equally as fair, the response was after you said "I want to vote for him, but want to see a list first" (or something that very strongly gave that impression). Since it was then obvious that Yuma would be the hammer vote in that case, I deferred until he asked me.

Even then, he suggested I NOT do it, unless I hit L-1 (which would require you voting for me), but I went ahead with one anyway.

[Robz888]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

I don't have a contingency plan.

Besides, if I try to tell you all what to do, I don't think anybody is actually right about what they think their power is. I mean, whoever has the killing powers should kill Galzria, who I suspect is mafia alongside O or Frisk. But if someone targets Galzria, they are just as likely to save him as kill him.

One final argument for why it's Galzria: He tried to make a helpful chart, after I already did. Over-the-top unnecessarily helpful Galzria is mafia Galzria, as anybody from MII would know.

That's all. Adios, amigos. I think we screwed up Day 1 and were pretty much doomed from there.

You mean the chart YOU ASKED me to make?

 

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

Vote: Robz888

I never meant a chart of who is what role. I meant a who you think is mafia ranking. This post, if I remember correctly, was right after O did that.

I quickly realized the role chart was entirely useless for figuring anything out. We are being distracted by a role discussion that gets us almost nowhere, and should be looking at scumminess.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ: Will you make a contingency plan?

[ehunt]

if we kill robz and he's mafia the next day is LyLo, right? i think i should use my vig power even if he is mafia, as it increases our odds of a win substantially to get two guesses instead of just one. or am I confused by all the roles?

[Robz888]

@RobZ: Will you make a contingency plan?

If the town doesn't lose tonight and there is another day, you should lynch Galzria. What other plan could I come up with? I don't know who has what doctor powers, so I can't advise that.

[Robz888]

if we kill robz and he's mafia the next day is LyLo, right? i think i should use my vig power even if he is mafia, as it increases our odds of a win substantially to get two guesses instead of just one. or am I confused by all the roles?

If you are positive your Vig, which I find doubtful, you should kill Galzria. And you will be doing that, because you will learn I am town very soon.

[ehunt]

ok, so, Robz, is this your contingency plan? If you flip town, I target Galzria, nobody else targets anyone?

[Captain_Frisk]

Is it just me, or is this a really bad idea?

Is there anyone in this game who hasn't sat down and tried to think about how we could survive a mislynch today?

[yuma]

@RobZ: Will you make a contingency plan?

If the town doesn't lose tonight and there is another day, you should lynch Galzria. What other plan could I come up with? I don't know who has what doctor powers, so I can't advise that.

The idea is to put a person (if you do end up flipping town) who we can 100% trust in control of the situation. Hopefully you flip scum and we don't have to worry about that. Frankly, if you said "my plan is for everyone to do what they think is best" I would take that above anything else that anyone else alive can offer because we might be completely manipulated. But you should only suggest that if you think that is actually best for town. Do you think everyone doing what they think best, is actually best for town?

Or do you have some other ideas? We would love to hear them.

If not, I can come up with some suggestions, but if I were the other townspeople I wouldn't trust anyone but someone 100% confirmed town to dictate the night. I can trust myself, but once night comes, can they trust me? My fear is that if Robz is lynched, and if he flips town, people won't follow my direction. "He voted for Robz, maybe he is actually mafia and leading us astray." Doubt sneaks in and they don't follow directions and then chaos again ensues (see night 1). Direction from you would be far better than direction from me because it would be from a confirmed townie!

[Galzria]

Robz - contingency plan for if you are lynched and turn up town is absolutely vital to town success. If you are town, then O is almost certainly mafia. If you won't come up with the contingency plan, I propose that yuma should come up with it for you.

I don't have a contingency plan.

Besides, if I try to tell you all what to do, I don't think anybody is actually right about what they think their power is. I mean, whoever has the killing powers should kill Galzria, who I suspect is mafia alongside O or Frisk. But if someone targets Galzria, they are just as likely to save him as kill him.

One final argument for why it's Galzria: He tried to make a helpful chart, after I already did. Over-the-top unnecessarily helpful Galzria is mafia Galzria, as anybody from MII would know.

That's all. Adios, amigos. I think we screwed up Day 1 and were pretty much doomed from there.

You mean the chart YOU ASKED me to make?

 

Galzria, would you make the same chart? I will make mine.

Vote: Robz888

I never meant a chart of who is what role. I meant a who you think is mafia ranking. This post, if I remember correctly, was right after O did that.

I quickly realized the role chart was entirely useless for figuring anything out. We are being distracted by a role discussion that gets us almost nowhere, and should be looking at scumminess.

Really? Can you direct me to where you then "made a chart like O's" after asking me to make one like you were doing?

[Robz888]

Galzria, look: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2893.msg55939#msg55939

This is where I asked you to make the same chart. I meant, same as the one O made in the previous post. Look.

[ehunt]

I have to go for a few hours. I will not vote for Robz absent
1. a contingency plan from him*
2. an answer to my post #584 from everyone else.

*or evidence of anti-town stonewalling by intentionally refusing to make a contingency plan.

[Captain_Frisk]

Galzria, look: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2893.msg55939#msg55939

This is where I asked you to make the same chart. I meant, same as the one O made in the previous post. Look.

A numbered list is hardly a chart.  I can totally see how Galz thought you meant - put together a google doc spreadsheet.

[Robz888]

@RobZ: Will you make a contingency plan?

If the town doesn't lose tonight and there is another day, you should lynch Galzria. What other plan could I come up with? I don't know who has what doctor powers, so I can't advise that.

The idea is to put a person (if you do end up flipping town) who we can 100% trust in control of the situation. Hopefully you flip scum and we don't have to worry about that. Frankly, if you said "my plan is for everyone to do what they think is best" I would take that above anything else that anyone else alive can offer because we might be completely manipulated. But you should only suggest that if you think that is actually best for town. Do you think everyone doing what they think best, is actually best for town?

Or do you have some other ideas? We would love to hear them.

If not, I can come up with some suggestions, but if I were the other townspeople I wouldn't trust anyone but someone 100% confirmed town to dictate the night. I can trust myself, but once night comes, can they trust me? My fear is that if Robz is lynched, and if he flips town, people won't follow my direction. "He voted for Robz, maybe he is actually mafia and leading us astray." Doubt sneaks in and they don't follow directions and then chaos again ensues (see night 1). Direction from you would be far better than direction from me because it would be from a confirmed townie!

Just because you can trust me doesn't mean I have any idea who has what role, so why I could or should know what people should do is beyond me. I don't like "whatever yuma says" either.

[Robz888]

Galzria, look: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2893.msg55939#msg55939

This is where I asked you to make the same chart. I meant, same as the one O made in the previous post. Look.

A numbered list is hardly a chart.  I can totally see how Galz thought you meant - put together a google doc spreadsheet.

You're right. I thought it was clear because I was referring to the previous post. Also, the "I will make mine" line doesn't make sense if you think it's a google doc spreadsheet, because I had already made a google doct spreadhseet.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz's refusal to make a list is explicitly anti-town.

eHunt - I agree - if RobZ flips mafia - then there is a reasonable chance you have a killing power and should use it.  Galzria and I might have killing powers, but we might also have been roleblocked - and if more than one of us fire - we might cause a loss.  The worst case is that we end up with 2 town and 1 mafia.  We would probably no lynch in that scenario anyway - and you'll take out the scummiest suspect.

Now - lets discuss what to do about RobZ?  If he refuses to make a list - how do we proceed?

[Robz888]

Robz's refusal to make a list is explicitly anti-town.

eHunt - I agree - if RobZ flips mafia - then there is a reasonable chance you have a killing power and should use it.  Galzria and I might have killing powers, but we might also have been roleblocked - and if more than one of us fire - we might cause a loss.  The worst case is that we end up with 2 town and 1 mafia.  We would probably no lynch in that scenario anyway - and you'll take out the scummiest suspect.

Now - lets discuss what to do about RobZ?  If he refuses to make a list - how do we proceed?

Do you want a list of "Frisk targets ehunt, ehunt targets O, O targets...." etc.? Because yeah, I'm not going to do that. I don't know who has what power. Why would I do that?

I can tell you my list who I think is mafia: 2 out of 3 of Galzria, Frisk and O.

[yuma]

Just because you can trust me doesn't mean I have any idea who has what role, so why I could or should know what people should do is beyond me. I don't like "whatever yuma says" either.

I understand that. The point is that at least we know that you aren't trying to manipulate us. We don't know that about anyone else. Like I said, if you want to say, "Everybody do whatever you want" I would rather follow that than something from someone else. But I don't think that is the best you can come up with.

We don't need a A targets B plan, if you want to provide that, that would be nice. But a general plan for everyone would work as well. Such as A targets either A, B, or C. C targets B or D, D does nothing, etc. Something that provides a little direction instead of massive chaos.

In fact I would rather have random time stamps be the source of your plan instead of none. Obviously this isn't ideal because you are smart and can figure something for us to use. Can't you?

[Robz888]

But if I don't know who has what ability, how can I suggest who should do what?

[Robz888]

Any person who is confident that they have the ability to kill their target should kill Galzria. Alternatively, one of Frisk or O, I believe, are mafia.

[ehunt]

@Robz - it's not good for all persons with that belief to target Galzria since I have that belief, and, if Galz is mafia and Frisk is innocent, Frisk may also have that belief? This would result in Galz not dying. Can you pick one of us?

[ehunt]

@Frisk if you vote to lynch Robz and he comes up mafia I will target O, unless someone (Galz, Frisk, yuma) strongly disagrees for some reason.

[Robz888]

@Robz - it's not good for all persons with that belief to target Galzria since I have that belief, and, if Galz is mafia and Frisk is innocent, Frisk may also have that belief? This would result in Galz not dying. Can you pick one of us?

But I don't know which of you has the Vig power, so it's no better than random.

[Captain_Frisk]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

Oh - and RobZ - there are plenty of solutions, but I'm not going to do your work for you. 

Pick the people who are most likely to have vig powers - and point them at the people you think are most likely to be mafia.  As long as they are pointed at different people - everyone is happy.

[Robz888]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

Oh - and RobZ - there are plenty of solutions, but I'm not going to do your work for you. 

Pick the people who are most likely to have vig powers - and point them at the people you think are most likely to be mafia.  As long as they are pointed at different people - everyone is happy.

I think we're reading into who could have what too much, given that two of us are liars. It's impossible to say with any confidence who is the Vig.

[ehunt]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

@frisk isn't the lynch deadline before that?

[O]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

Oh - and RobZ - there are plenty of solutions, but I'm not going to do your work for you. 

Pick the people who are most likely to have vig powers - and point them at the people you think are most likely to be mafia.  As long as they are pointed at different people - everyone is happy.

Although it is, of course, convenient for a scum to try to frame himself as a likely Vig.
I think we're reading into who could have what too much, given that two of us are liars. It's impossible to say with any confidence who is the Vig.

[O]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

Oh - and RobZ - there are plenty of solutions, but I'm not going to do your work for you. 

Pick the people who are most likely to have vig powers - and point them at the people you think are most likely to be mafia.  As long as they are pointed at different people - everyone is happy.

I think we're reading into who could have what too much, given that two of us are liars. It's impossible to say with any confidence who is the Vig.

Although it is, of course, convenient for a scum to try to frame himself as a likely Vig.


Fixed

[ehunt]

Robz is not going to give us plans, presumably to filibuster his lynch. Does anyone other than O and Robz object to the following plan?

Lynch Robz

If Robz town ---> I target Galzria, no other townies target.
If Robz mafia---> I target O, no other townies target.

[Captain_Frisk]

OK - do you agree that ZXC is most likely either Mafia (straight up killed Insomniac, or Insomniac died because he was the weak doctor?) or a VIG / CPR Doctor?

If so - ZXC should be pointed at whoever you think is scum.

Now - ZXC looks pretty scummy as well.  Who else is dangerous if they are telling the truth?  (Me, Galzria).  One of us should probably be pointed @ ZXC.

Walk through the scenarios:

You die.
You are town.
There 2 mafia left, and 3 doctors.  1 night kill on town effectively ends the game.
In order to win - we need to maximize our chances of killing mafia.
We have potential roles that can kill.
They fail to kill if they target the same person.
We don't want accidental protection of scum
We do want accidental protection against mafia killings.

Do you continue to refuse to put something together?

[Robz888]

Robz is not going to give us plans, presumably to filibuster his lynch. Does anyone other than O and Robz object to the following plan?

Lynch Robz

If Robz town ---> I target Galzria, no other townies target.
If Robz mafia---> I target O, no other townies target.

The only reason we didn't lynch you a week ago was because I objected.

[Captain_Frisk]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

@frisk isn't the lynch deadline before that?

Indeed!  Sorry - I thought we had until thursday.  Guess we need to figure it out tonight.  I think if we're going to lynch RobZ - we need to use everyones power who can possibly kill.

Here's what I propose - based on timestamp of the day end post by mod:

Even:
eHunt -> Captain_Frisk -> Galzria (all 3 dangerous people targeting each other - the order based on random timestamp to prevent me from gaming it)

Odd
eHunt -> Galzria -> Captain_Frisk

The safe people
O <-> Yuma - maybe we get a lucky jailkeep  No reason not to get the extra protection if we can.

Agreed?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - thats only if Axxle flips town.  If he flips mafia - then I agree - eHunt should target whoever he thinks is scummiest.  2 vs. 1 is (unfortunately) better than 3 vs. 1, and rather than no lynching and letting mafia choose which one of us is going to die - at least this way we have some control.

[ehunt]

by Axxle you mean Robz? OK, and in the scenario that I target the scummiest, no other targeting? is there a guaranteed safe doctor who can protect yuma?

[Captain_Frisk]

by Axxle you mean Robz? OK, and in the scenario that I target the scummiest, no other targeting? is there a guaranteed safe doctor who can protect yuma?

Too much mafia!

[ehunt]

my last post was inarticulate.

in robz town scenario, do as in captain frisk's post.

in robz mafia scenario, i target one of O or frisk at my discretion. is there a guaranteed safe doctor that can target yuma? i guess there is not.

[Captain_Frisk]

bis there a guaranteed safe doctor who can protect yuma?

O and Yuma are the ones with likely non destructive powers - but if one of them is the weak doctor - they could die - and if you mislynch - game over.

[ehunt]

so in the robz mafia scenario we are agreed that only i should take a night action among any of the townies?

[Captain_Frisk]

so in the robz mafia scenario we are agreed that only i should take a night action among any of the townies?

I am in agreement on this.

[Captain_Frisk]

So that makes 2.   

@O, @Galz, @Yuma

2 of you agree - and I'll vote RobZ.

[Robz888]

Stop, halt, desist.

[Captain_Frisk]

Are you going to roleclaim?

[Robz888]

Are you going to roleclaim?

Town Apothecary! Ugh.

[Robz888]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

Maybe people are more interested in this lynch?

[Galzria]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

[Robz888]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

Me neither!

Vote: eHunt

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - OMGUS.

I've got my instructions in already if that's the way the rest of you decide to go.

[Robz888]

No, it's Frisk. It's Frisk and Galzria. Unless Galzria is with me on voting Frisk.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Robz888]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

There is one advantage - if we get to 2-1 because 2 people died - then we know eHunt is town.

[Galzria]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

Me neither!

Vote: eHunt

For the record, how does this scenario concern you? If you flip town my point is null and void...

[ehunt]

@Galz - ok, more math, sorry.

Robz flips mafia. Tonight's pool, 4-1. I try to kill mafia; it's not yuma or me so probability of a hit is 1/3 (of course you don't necessarily believe it's not me, but this analysis is obviously irrelevant if it's me). Either I die or yuma. Worst-case scenario, I mislynch. Tomorrow's pool, 2-1. Probability of a mafia lynch is 1/3. Yuma still alive leaves it at 1/2. Our win chance is pretty good. (1/2) + (2/3)*(1/2) = 2/3. Yuma dead is sad, but then I get another chance to night kill the mafia so it's not gg.

Now say I don't kill tonight. Tomorrow's pool 3-1, odds of a hit are 1/4. Yuma still alive boosts it to 1/3. Then chance of a night kill depends on who is alive, could be as good as a 1/2, but we won't be certain who has a kill.

[ehunt]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

[Robz888]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

[Robz888]

Robz lynch is sobs lynch.

[ehunt]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

Are you softclaiming that you killed Insomniac and so I am not a vig?

[Robz888]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

Are you softclaiming that you killed Insomniac and so I am not a vig?

I was saying it's a scenario you don't have to consider, because I will flip Town Apothecary. If you would do it all ready, you would see.

[Galzria]

Well, but so did O (expressed interest):

 

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

>implying he uses same strategy every game
>possible chainsaw defense
>"go ahead, vote for me"

vote:Robz

So now we have 5 willing, which is too many. Granted O's vote was before there was anything threatening to Robz.

3 options:

1. O is scum with Robz trying to win my trust by defending me and voting his partner in a no-pressure situation.

(Would they have continued to drag the day out by staying on opposite wagons all this time instead of pushing for a lynch?)

2. Someone is fine bussing their teammate now for town cred day 3

(Possible, but is it likely?)

3. Robz is town. This wagon is getting full quickly because scum like it as it's not them.

(Again, possible. More likely than the other two?)

---

I would like each of your thoughts on the three items above please.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - ok, more math, sorry.

Robz flips mafia. Tonight's pool, 4-1. I try to kill mafia; it's not yuma or me so probability of a hit is 1/3 (of course you don't necessarily believe it's not me, but this analysis is obviously irrelevant if it's me). Either I die or yuma. Worst-case scenario, I mislynch. Tomorrow's pool, 2-1. Probability of a mafia lynch is 1/3. Yuma still alive leaves it at 1/2. Our win chance is pretty good. (1/2) + (2/3)*(1/2) = 2/3. Yuma dead is sad, but then I get another chance to night kill the mafia so it's not gg.

Now say I don't kill tonight. Tomorrow's pool 3-1, odds of a hit are 1/4. Yuma still alive boosts it to 1/3. Then chance of a night kill depends on who is alive, could be as good as a 1/2, but we won't be certain who has a kill.

If you kill someone (not Yuma) and yuma dies, then we know you are town because the mafia can't NK twice.  We have a 50/50 chance of killing mafia - as whoever is left should vote with you. 

If you and mafia target the same person (lol) - then we're @ 3-1 and we debate

If mafia elects not to night kill - then we debate

In either of the latter two scenarios, I'd strongly suggest lynching you and rolling the dice with night powers.

[Captain_Frisk]

Galzria - do you have any other issues other than eHunt potentially shooting you in my proposed plan?

[ehunt]

Well, but so did O (expressed interest):

 

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

>implying he uses same strategy every game
>possible chainsaw defense
>"go ahead, vote for me"

vote:Robz

So now we have 5 willing, which is too many. Granted O's vote was before there was anything threatening to Robz.

3 options:

1. O is scum with Robz trying to win my trust by defending me and voting his partner in a no-pressure situation.

(Would they have continued to drag the day out by staying on opposite wagons all this time instead of pushing for a lynch?)

2. Someone is fine bussing their teammate now for town cred day 3

(Possible, but is it likely?)

3. Robz is town. This wagon is getting full quickly because scum like it as it's not them.

(Again, possible. More likely than the other two?)

---

I would like each of your thoughts on the three items above please.

1. I had always thought that O v Robz parked on two distinct wagons and refusing to move seemed scummy. Allowed for a quick move by either at the end, with the other looking hopelessly good. But I didn't notice that O was on Robz for a bit before that happened. As you said, it was a very safe time. Still.

2. That's interesting. We absolutely can't rule out a bus if Robz is mafia. So maybe in that scenario I should use my role by time stamp at night? Everyone but yuma, based on time stamp mod 3, 0=Galz 1 =0 2 = Frisk.

3. I am a little worried that you and Frisk are spinning me like a record. But this wagon does distinctly seem to have exactly 4 people interested. But I had forgotten about this O vs. Robz incident which makes you look better.

[Captain_Frisk]

Where is O?  If he has time to Modkill ZXC and Axxle - he has time to come and say hi.

[Galzria]

Galzria - do you have any other issues other than eHunt potentially shooting you in my proposed plan?

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

I just don't think firing is worth the tradeoff.

If it's insisted he shoots, well, yeah, I suppose he should choose randomly (or by his own standards). I really don't like it though.

[ehunt]

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

But in this case you have yuma.

[Galzria]

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

But in this case you have yuma.

That's true. But like your above comment, I feel spun like a record.

I just don't TRUST Zxcvbn's play prior to your arrival. You're still my strongest lynch, and while Robz has his share of scuminess...

Just, ugh.

If we lynch someone other than you and we hit town, we've likely lost, regardless of if you're lying. We MIGHT get lucky, but it's just that: Luck.

If we lynch someone other than you and hit Mafia, you're willing to stake your town claim on there being two kills. If there's not, you should be a policy lynch D3, which sets the Mafia up to no kill.

And I'm running in circles. I just don't know. I feel safest not shooting anybody if we lynch Mafia. What I feel safest with doesn't mean it's the best though.

---

Stump.

[Captain_Frisk]

Stump.

Galz - it sounds like you're ok with the plan then.  I can see either way on the eHunt night kill - but I kindof think that opposing would be being afraid of the kill would be scummy.  Of course, that would make the pair RobZ + Galz - and I'm not sure that RobZ would be willing to leave his vote on his partner for so long.

Anyway - I'm watching Funny People with my wife.  I'm going to finish the movie, come downstairs, and make one last review before bed.

[ehunt]

I'll defer to Frisk and Yuma. Seems to me that if Robz is mafia, I target O with a high probability of a win. If not, I will die and O will die and Yuma gets to decide if he believes you or Frisk, still a good 50-50.

Oh, I just understood. You're saying if I'm wrong about O, mafia will no kill and we'll lose, because y'all will lynch me. Crap. Frisk? Yuma? opinions?

@Frisk that movie is so long. You will not be voting before like midnight.

[yuma]

Ok... Everything has become a bit discombobulated in my head....

Let's clarify:

If Robz flips town: ehunt targets Galz. I am hesitant about this, because it is a plan from someone we can't trust 100%. this is why I want Robz to take a part in this conversation. But if he won't then sure, go ahead...

If Robz flips mafia: ehunt targets O? I guess I am ok with this.

In both situations everyone else does nothing? Frankly, I don't like having ehunt drive this whole thing, but a plan is better than no plan.

As for Galz's three situations, at this point in the game all three seem as possible as the others, even the bussing.

[ehunt]

@yuma, no, we changed what happens if robz flips town to something more complicated - it's in one of frisk's posts, let me look.

[ehunt]

612, this one, is the plan we're agreeing to if Robz flips town.

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

@frisk isn't the lynch deadline before that?

Indeed!  Sorry - I thought we had until thursday.  Guess we need to figure it out tonight.  I think if we're going to lynch RobZ - we need to use everyones power who can possibly kill.

Here's what I propose - based on timestamp of the day end post by mod:

Even:
eHunt -> Captain_Frisk -> Galzria (all 3 dangerous people targeting each other - the order based on random timestamp to prevent me from gaming it)

Odd
eHunt -> Galzria -> Captain_Frisk

The safe people
O <-> Yuma - maybe we get a lucky jailkeep  No reason not to get the extra protection if we can.

Agreed?

[ehunt]

to clarify, timestamp means the second on the top of the mod post by jo, even if jo edits it later that doesn't change the timestamp (i tested on a message in another part of the dominion strategy forum).

[Galzria]

Ok... Everything has become a bit discombobulated in my head....

Let's clarify:

If Robz flips town: ehunt targets Galz. I am hesitant about this, because it is a plan from someone we can't trust 100%. this is why I want Robz to take a part in this conversation. But if he won't then sure, go ahead...

If Robz flips mafia: ehunt targets O? I guess I am ok with this.

In both situations everyone else does nothing? Frankly, I don't like having ehunt drive this whole thing, but a plan is better than no plan.

As for Galz's three situations, at this point in the game all three seem as possible as the others, even the bussing.

If he flips town, I think we all need to act, somehow. Spot the Mafia one NK and we are at 2-2. We need to either prevent that kill, or maximize our chances of killing Mafia. Relying on just one person, who may (and I would argue higher chancewith Robz = Town) be lying seems unnecessarily risky.

[Galzria]

Hmm, ninja'd.

[ehunt]

@Galz I thought we were going by the frisk plan. I think Yuma just missed it in all the posting. Do you oppose the Frisk plan?

[ehunt]

meta-ninja'd

[Galzria]

Super Ninja's.

[ehunt]

@galz so you do approve the frisk plan for town robz?

@yuma if you also approve the frisk plan for town robz, I am comfortable locking in a vote, if only to stop hitting refresh on this page every 15 seconds...

[Galzria]

As we will get no effort from him to provide a plan, yes, I am.

It's not great, but goodness if he flips town we're hosed, and nothing is great.

[yuma]

@yuma if you also approve the frisk plan for town robz, I am comfortable locking in a vote, if only to stop hitting refresh on this page every 15 seconds...

Yes i do approve... and to further clarify, O and I are targeting each other in hopes of protecting? This is actually very similar to what I had drawn up on paper when you asked me to come up with a plan. The only difference was that I had the three of you choosing in private who to kill out of the two choices--I suppose having it out in the open is better than having you three make your choice in private.

[ehunt]

@yuma, that's right. The plan is only if Robz is town.

If he is mafia, I target O and nobody else targets.

alright, vote: Robz888

[jotheonah]

ehunt's change of face was springing the Apothecaries into action. He scrounged up a ball of yarn and tossed it into the air. Robz went for it, and all eyes locked on him.


Vote Count

ehunt[1] -  O
Robz888[3] - yuma, Galzria, ehunt (L-1)
Captain_Frisk[1] - Robz888

not voting - Captain_Frisk

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Robz888]

Once more, I ask you not to do this. It's a huge mistake. And obviously problematic that everybody is okay with it. O was okay with it too, like, a week ago. He voted for me back when!

[Robz888]

Okay, my final instructions: When I flip town, nobody should follow any directions. Random targeting is probably the best hope.

[ehunt]

Okay, my final instructions: When I flip town, nobody should follow any directions. Random targeting is probably the best hope.

Please explain.

[Robz888]

Galzria, I think you know this is a mistake, which is why you are so suspicious to me. You don't have to do this, though.

[Robz888]

Okay, my final instructions: When I flip town, nobody should follow any directions. Random targeting is probably the best hope.

Please explain.

Don't do the time stamp target thing. I don't want the mafia to know who is getting targeted from who. When I die, the mafia will probably win this game unless you randomly kill/protect the correct people.

[ehunt]

robz - do you believe yuma is town with the same degree of certainty as everyone else?

[Robz888]

robz - do you believe yuma is town with the same degree of certainty as everyone else?

Not even a little bit.

[Robz888]

Really, I have no idea who the mafia is, although the way Frisk is sort of driving this lately makes me suspect him. If it's O and Yuma, fine. Nothing would surprise me. I initially suspected Galzria and O because Galzria didn't follow instructions and they came after me quickest, and I do counter accuse people who accuse me. I can't help it. Now Frisk looks the worst. I don't know what to say. I understand wanting to kill me, except that everybody seems to want it, which should raise flags. And I think the who has what role thing has been over analyzed, but I started that, so it's my fault.

[Captain_Frisk]

Random targeting is a terrible idea.  I don't really want to hammer if people are going to follow this plain in the event that I'm wrong.

[ehunt]

I will follow the original Frisk plan. Presumably Robz is doing this to stall to no lynch.

[Robz888]

I will follow the original Frisk plan. Presumably Robz is doing this to stall to no lynch.

No Lynch is preferable to me lynch, as you will soon see.

Let's kill Frisk, please. I beg you.

[Captain_Frisk]

So RobZ - at least 3 people agree with the concept of townies providing a plan to follow in the event of a mislynch.  This plan is guaranteed to be town inspired.  3 people agreeing means at least 1 of us is town.  Why do you continue to refuse to provide one?  Can you put forth any compelling argument as to why a fully random use of powers is a good idea to avoid a town loss?

[O]

Robz-Frisk not a scumteam... deadline is? I'm not going to hammer Robz unless rereading some crap convinces me against a Ehunt-Frisk scumteam.

[O]

WAIT WHAT FRISK PLAN FOR TOWN ROBZ FLIP

Robz are you insane, if you're town post a goddamn plan if the alternative is others following CF upon lynch.. or say Robz plan is chaos plan. But having them following Captain Frisk..

[O]

Okay, my final instructions: When I flip town, nobody should follow any directions. Random targeting is probably the best hope.

Sorry, missed this.

[O]

Reminder: The deadline is Tuesday, July 10th.

Vote: Robz

details to come, don't want a thread lock post for a nolynch.

[O]

I really hope I just hammered scum, but the most likely combinations here seem to Ehunt-Galz, Ehunt-Yuma if Robz is town, Captain Frisk if Robz is scum because he was on and didn't hammer at deadline.

[Galzria]

zxcvbn2 is now ehunt! To give him a chance to catch up, I am extending the deadline by 24 hours.


The new deadline is Wednesday, July 11th at 8 p.m. EST

[O]

zxcvbn2 is now ehunt! To give him a chance to catch up, I am extending the deadline by 24 hours.


The new deadline is Wednesday, July 11th at 8 p.m. EST

derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp

[Galzria]

I suppose this is important to get in:

Stick to CF's plan if Robz flips town!

O and Yuma can't be a pair or O would've agreed to the plan before hammering, thus ensuring his and Yuma's safety.

That means there is are either no Mafia between O/Yuma, or there is one. In any case, us "dangerous 3" have at least one scum, and by following the plan we still have a decent chance to hit and kill that person.

[O]

So we have Captain Frisk and Galzria endorsing that plan if Robz flips town.

[Galzria]

@yuma if you also approve the frisk plan for town robz, I am comfortable locking in a vote, if only to stop hitting refresh on this page every 15 seconds...

Yes i do approve... and to further clarify, O and I are targeting each other in hopes of protecting? This is actually very similar to what I had drawn up on paper when you asked me to come up with a plan. The only difference was that I had the three of you choosing in private who to kill out of the two choices--I suppose having it out in the open is better than having you three make your choice in private.

[O]

and Yuma. Sorry, clearly I haven't been completely up-to-date on the last bunch of pages... I really hope that doesn't cost me. 

[Robz888]

You fool! I am indeed town. Was that the hammer? I can still talk until Jo officializes it, right? I've never been lynched before.

[Robz888]

Don't listen to Frisk, whatever you do, for goodness sake.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz if you are town then put together a plan quickly. Random is crazy, and I am town.

[ehunt]

Yuma : do not target O tonight.

[ehunt]

O is obvscum our only chance is for me to kill him. Yuma do not target me tonight either as you could be jailer.

[Captain_Frisk]

Yuma : do not target O tonight.

Zxc is that you changing the plan again?

Robz, if you are town I am so pissed

[ehunt]

@Frisk i did not anticipate an O hammer. you have to agree, right?

[ehunt]

missed galz 681

[Captain_Frisk]

Yuma may be jail keeper.

If we suspect O, we should put some killing on him.  However, unless you suspect O and Yuma, then we are hopefully getting our killing of mafia done via the deadly rotation. 

What good does Yuma not targeting O do?

[ehunt]

I trust you and Galzria. You ensure me I can trust Yuma. That's already one too many. Therefore O is mafia and I should kill him.

[Captain_Frisk]

I have 20 min left on the bus here.  You can't trust all of us.  If you assume O - who is the partner?

[ehunt]

you or galz i guess - do you not agree with me on O?

[Captain_Frisk]

If you deviate and target o, you don't guarantee a hit on either of us.

[Captain_Frisk]

We do lose if the pairing is o / Yuma. 

[ehunt]

if it's frisk-galz then i am vig (otherwise TINAS would be alive) and frisk would neve have agreed to the circle of doom.

therefore either yuma or O must be mafia.

[ehunt]

just gonna throw out there that this would not be happening if robz had just come up with a damn plan when we asked him to

[Captain_Frisk]

If robz posts a plan other than "do crazy random" then we should do it.

Also, I now know we have mislynched, unless someone is bussing.

[ehunt]

frisk youre going to have to trust me here. btw everyone ignore this chaos and stick to original plan if robz flips mafia.

frisk-galz is an impossible pairing cause if it's frisk-galz then mafia target was TINAS so i in fact have a night kill and frisk-galz knows it. but frisk-galz agreed to a plan where i target one of them and that person is not doctored.

therefore one of yuma or o is mafia. yuma is innocent child apparently so i target O. I need yuma not to target O because yuma may have doctoring capabilities.

[ehunt]

important: if there are two mafia left tomorrow but the game is not over, that means we can force a tie with the vig or, better, jailkeep the killer, so do not vote in the situation that there are two mafia left tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

When Robz888 chased the yarn, ehunt, Galzria, and yuma all agreed he must be a Familiar. 
"Quick!" yelled ehunt as night fell, "Someone help us brew this poison Potion."
They looked over at O, who had been quietly knitting with the other ball of yarn. He held up a perfectly knit noose.
"Let's just do it the old fashioned way," he said.


Vote Count

Robz888[4] - yuma, Galzria, ehunt, O
Captain_Frisk[1] - Robz888

not voting - Captain_Frisk

Robz888, the Town Apothecary, is dead.
THREAD LOCKED. Day 3 begins in 48 hours or when all night actions have been submitted. If anyone chooses not to submit a night action, please send me a "No Action" PM.

[jotheonah]

The next morning the sun rose on the Vineyard. The Chancellor came bustling on to the scene.

“Good, news, good news!” he cried. “The Witch has decided to call off her … familiars...”

But here his voice trailed off at the incredible sight before his eyes. In the light of the sun there was one more dead apothecary – Captain Frisk.  But there were also two dead cats, black as pitch.

Galzria and ehunt wandered out of their makeshift hovels.

“Well then,” said the Chancellor. “Well done then. You're, uh, not very good doctors, are you?”


The Game is over. Town wins.

Galzria and ehunt, Town Apothecaries, survive.

O and yuma, Familiars, were malpracticed on Night 2.

Captain Frisk, Town Apothecary, was killed Night 2.

Here were the roles:

Robz888 – Apprentice
Galzria – Stoned Philosopher
TINAS – Possessor
ftl – True Apothecary
Captain_Frisk – Alchemist
zxcvbn2/ehunt – Golem
Insomniac – Herbalist
yuma – Familiar
O – Familiar

And the night actions:

N1
zxcvbn2 targets Insomniac – success: Insomniac dies
Robz888 targets Galzria – failed (Robz888 is possessed)
TINAS targets Robz888 – success: Robz888 is possessed and protected
Captain_Frisk targets TINAS – success: TINAS dies
Insomniac targets zxcvbn2 – success: zxcvbn2 is healed
Galzria targets TINAS – nothing happens
yuma targets Robz888 – failed (Robz888 is possessed)

N2
Galzria targets ehunt – nothing happens
ehunt targets O – success: O dies
Captain Frisk targets yuma – success: yuma dies
yuma targets Captain Frisk – success: Captain Frisk dies

I couldn't believe the town pulled this off. There was one way to win, and you guys landed on it. You killed your real doctor day 1, his replacement night 1, and his apprentice day 2. Somehow you still won. This game is wack.

But it was a pleasure modding for you. Congratulations on a game well played.

[O]

There's a reason town are like 6-1 in this setup on mafiascum..

[Galzria]

God damn. Wow. Just, wow.

[jotheonah]

And the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/sXbhHDBhAHxn

Mafia played an amazing game, and if life were fair would have triumphed.

[ehunt]

I'll post my thoughts. Frisk is BRILLIANT for targeting yuma.




pairings in rough order of intuitive likelihood.

O/galz --> case a: Mafia kill was insomniac. So I am probably not a vig, unless lucky coincidence. But CF is vig b/c TINAS died, so CF plan results
      in CF killing galz (we are lucky that timestamp was even!) I should target O although presumably nothing will happen.

      case b: Mafia kill was TINAS. I am a vig. In the frisk plan I kill frisk, which results in a town loss. So I should target O and cross my fingers
      that yuma doesn't jailkeep or heal him, as per my request.


O/frisk --> case a: Mafia kill was insomniac, so I'm probably not vig. Moreover, Galz is a vig. He is targetting me per CF plan,
         which is very, very bad. CF proposed plan at random, so that was risky for him to do, but he's laughing his way to the bank now.
         In this case we lose no matter what I do, because mafia can kill yuma tonight with impunity.
       case b: Mafia kill was TINAS. I am a vig. I should target one of O or Frisk. If yuma has healing or jailkeeping abilities (likely)
       then a Frisk target is better than an O target, because yuma's most likely target is O. OTOH yuma is not dumb and has got to notice
       that O's hammer is scummy. I also left yuma specific instructions not to target O! And this scenario involves suicidal Frisk.

O/yuma --> case a: Mafia kill was insomniac. One of Galz and Frisk is a vig; moreover, the other is useless. If Frisk plan goes down,
      mafia targets Frisk (whom I'm supposed to be targeting, but they know I'm the one of the three who can't kill), killing him and winning the game
      no matter what I do.I may as well target O and hope we are very lucky.

case b: Mafia kill was TINAS. I am a vig. I target O. This is actually the case which I hope is true, because it will mean Yuma can't block my O kill. Unfortunately
   it will be hard to distinguish this from O/Galz case b tomorrow, if everything goes right.


yuma/galz --> case a: Mafia kill was insomniac. I'm probably not a vig. Good news is that CF is targeting Galz. If I target O, it probably does nothing,
   but could be bad if I happen to be a vig (who deduced that I was a vig for the wrong reason). However, same if I target Frisk.

case b: Mafia kill was TINAS. I'm a vig. Frisk hit (per CF plan) is suicide. Unfortunately, O hit is also suicide.

      
galz/frisk --> There is no case a, else TINAS would not have died night one. So i'm vig and moreover g/f know that i am vig.
To believe this is happening, you have to believe that frisk proposed, and galz seconded, a plan that guarantees the death of one of them. With no communication,
this is crazy.
Thus this case is highly unlikely.The WIFOM here is that CF could have been double jedi-mind-tricking me, proposing a suicide plan to look town
so that I would do his O kill for him.This is the only case in which it makes sense
for me to target Frisk and not O.

yuma/frisk --> we're doomed. case a: Mafia kill was insomniac. I'm probably not a vig, Galz certainly is. Galz is targeting me, so town loses.
case b: Mafia kill was TINAS. I'm a vig. I should hit Frisk as per plan and not O, similar to the O/frisk case. However, if I do this, town will not be able to distinguish
this from the O/Frisk case scenario b tomorrow and will mislynch. Again also requires a suicidal Frisk.

[O]

I'm going to chalk this up to incredibly bad luck (no offense). Yuma was innocent child for much of the game and I was never in any lynch danger because Galz really wasn't going to lynch me. I knew ehunt was golem/vig and knew I was dead night 2, but assumed that CF/Galz would either 1) listen to ehunt and follow the pairings because they believed him or 2) both target ehunt because he was looking quite scummy at the end there.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nice work eHunt.

Holy shit I was nervous about not following the plan.

[Galzria]

And the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/sXbhHDBhAHxn

Mafia played an amazing game, and if life were fair would have triumphed.

To be fair, I did suspect O, but really couldn't have fingered Yuma. So props. I thought O/CF for sure going into night.

Props to CF on the Yuma kill. I followed orders hoping to be a jailed protective role, and protect eHunt, who I then trusted.

[O]

And the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/sXbhHDBhAHxn

Mafia played an amazing game, and if life were fair would have triumphed.

To be fair, I did suspect O, but really couldn't have fingered Yuma. So props. I thought O/CF for sure going into night.

Props to CF on the Yuma kill. I followed orders hoping to be a jailed protective role, and protect eHunt, who I then trusted.

I mean yea, once I hammered Robz I was obvscum. I was hoping some misinterpretation about roles would save me or that there would be 3 deaths. There WERE three deaths...

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to chalk this up to incredibly bad luck (no offense). Yuma was innocent child for much of the game and I was never in any lynch danger because Galz really wasn't going to lynch me. I knew ehunt was golem/vig and knew I was dead night 2, but assumed that CF/Galz would either 1) listen to ehunt and follow the pairings because they believed him or 2) both target ehunt because he was looking quite scummy at the end there.

O - I wouldn't have targeted Yuma if you had let me cast the final vote.  You doing it basically cemented it for me.

[jotheonah]

Anyone else want to comment on the hilarious efficiency with which you all dispatched your real doctors. Just one by one... I was giggling.

[O]

I'm going to chalk this up to incredibly bad luck (no offense). Yuma was innocent child for much of the game and I was never in any lynch danger because Galz really wasn't going to lynch me. I knew ehunt was golem/vig and knew I was dead night 2, but assumed that CF/Galz would either 1) listen to ehunt and follow the pairings because they believed him or 2) both target ehunt because he was looking quite scummy at the end there.

O - I wouldn't have targeted Yuma if you had let me cast the final vote.  You doing it basically cemented it for me.

I honestly didn't remember about the deadline change and would have certainly held off if I knew there was more time. I would have actually probably continued to push for an Ehunt lynch, who I was pretty sure was a killing role.

[Insomniac]

Real doctor and real herbalist here, YOU GUYS...I was still sure at the end that ehunt/zxc was mafia i didn't see any other reason I should have died. So props on figuring it out

[Captain_Frisk]

So for me - O's hammer confirmed him as mafia - eHunt identifying the need to switch confirmed it.  That left O + Galz or O + yuma.  If it was O + galz - then i was probably useless.  If it was O + yuma - which then makes sense for agreeing to the plan - then there was a chance that I might be dangerous -> hence the switch to yuma. 

[ehunt]

@frisk i agree o is obvscum, can you explain how you figured out i couldn't be scum?

[Captain_Frisk]

@frisk i agree o is obvscum, can you explain how you figured out i couldn't be scum?

Well - if you were scum, then you were doing all this stuff as crazy times - and you still had a potential kill coming your way - when you could have just killed Galz or I. 

All you were asking was that Yuma not target O.  If you were mafia , you'd only ask for this if you thought that Yuma might be dangerous, and frankly you'd probably be more concerned with diverting me or Galz from targeting you.  Well Galz was already targeting you (allegedly), and if Yuma was dangerous - then there's a very good chance that I'd be dead already. 

Then the realization that Galz was wrong - that O and Yuma could be a mafia pairing - and that O's hammer without conflict to the plan meant that he felt his town could make it through the night without casualty.

I figured the worst case was that you killed O, and I falsely killed Yuma - but at least 2 of us would be alive the next day and its 2 on 1.

Why did you guys pick me as the night kill?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - can we all yell @ RobZ for not putting together a plan?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - and while I am mafia undefeated - this was much more satisfying than being night killed by the serial killer on night 1.  Even if I still died.

[Robz888]

Wow, just got done working... We win?

My thoughts:

[Robz888]

Oh - can we all yell @ RobZ for not putting together a plan?

No apologies!! I don't know anything to tell you! I was even mostly wrong in my suspicions. And we systematically exterminated all the real doctors. This is an unbelievable win.

And I am also undefeated in Forum mafia

[Insomniac]

http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/sXbhHDBhAHxn

[Galzria]

Oh - can we all yell @ RobZ for not putting together a plan?

No apologies!! I don't know anything to tell you! I was even mostly wrong in my suspicions. And we systematically exterminated all the real doctors. This is an unbelievable win.

And I am also undefeated in Forum mafia

Damn, why can't I plus 1 this post?

My Forums Games record is better.

[eHalcyon]

Holy crap I don't even want to think about this. 

[Robz888]

Oh - can we all yell @ RobZ for not putting together a plan?

No apologies!! I don't know anything to tell you! I was even mostly wrong in my suspicions. And we systematically exterminated all the real doctors. This is an unbelievable win.

And I am also undefeated in Forum mafia

Damn, why can't I plus 1 this post?

My Forums Games record is better.

See my post in Resistance II.

[Galzria]

Yay! Nobody in the QT ever suspected me! I played town as obvtown! WHOOO!! Moral Victory, +1 Galzria.

[Voltgloss]

Huh.  Well.

I'm...

Yeah, I'm stumped.

[Galzria]

Huh.  Well.

I'm...

Yeah, I'm stumped.

I'm still, like, truly and honestly completely shocked. This just should not have happened. Most thrilling and unbelievable finish to a Mafia game yet! I think we even topped eHalcyon's crazy jailer luck in M-III to save that game.

[eHalcyon]

Huh.  Well.

I'm...

Yeah, I'm stumped.

I'm still, like, truly and honestly completely shocked. This just should not have happened. Most thrilling and unbelievable finish to a Mafia game yet! I think we even topped eHalcyon's crazy jailer luck in M-III to save that game.

You mean crazy jailer SKILLZ.

OK it was luck.

[jotheonah]

Yeah I thought you guys were toast. And yet.

I'm guessing this game was way more fun to mod than it was to play.

[eHalcyon]

So is yuma's record 2x scum, lost both times even though nobody suspected him at all?  Poor guy.

[Galzria]

So is yuma's record 2x scum, lost both times even though nobody suspected him at all?  Poor guy.

... Lolyes

[Robz888]

What an obvscum.

[O]

Well yuma mis-played MIII with the vig claim. Really you either a) immediately counterclaim ehalycon/axxle, or b) claim VT. Yuma played this one perfectly, though, much better than I did (we would have won if I had gotten the damn deadline right and let CF hammer)

[eHalcyon]

Well yuma mis-played MIII with the vig claim. Really you either a) immediately counterclaim ehalycon/axxle, or b) claim VT. Yuma played this one perfectly, though, much better than I did (we would have won if I had gotten the damn deadline right and let CF hammer)

It was too late to counterclaim Axxle at that point.  Me, yes.  Or claim VT and make it all the more difficult for me to jail properly.

[Insomniac]

Well yuma mis-played MIII with the vig claim. Really you either a) immediately counterclaim ehalycon/axxle, or b) claim VT. Yuma played this one perfectly, though, much better than I did (we would have won if I had gotten the damn deadline right and let CF hammer)

It was too late to counterclaim Axxle at that point.  Me, yes.  Or claim VT and make it all the more difficult for me to jail properly.

you were already jailing him before he claimed.

[eHalcyon]

Well yuma mis-played MIII with the vig claim. Really you either a) immediately counterclaim ehalycon/axxle, or b) claim VT. Yuma played this one perfectly, though, much better than I did (we would have won if I had gotten the damn deadline right and let CF hammer)

It was too late to counterclaim Axxle at that point.  Me, yes.  Or claim VT and make it all the more difficult for me to jail properly.

you were already jailing him before he claimed.

Yeah, but for the next night!  I don't know, it's been a while since that game.

Back on topic though... cripes this game was confusing.

[ehunt]

I trust you and Galzria. You ensure me I can trust Yuma. That's already one too many. Therefore O is mafia and I should kill him.

this quotation sums up exactly why things were able to go well.

[jotheonah]

Well, even if the game was maddening, I hope the flavor was slightly amusing.

[Galzria]

I trust you and Galzria. You ensure me I can trust Yuma. That's already one too many. Therefore O is mafia and I should kill him.

this quotation sums up exactly why things were able to go well.

eHunt, how scummy did you see the actions of your predecessor coming in? As much as anything else you were actually able to convince me you MIGHT be innocent.

[yuma]

Why can no one follow simple instructions? We had it all outlined guys... Really it was the perfect plan... But no. Everyone has to start thinking for themselves. Sheesh!

I was really surprised when O hammered. I was thinking Frisk would do it and then everyone would go into night and you all would kill each other. How ideal!

I really need to work on my mafia end game. Two times now things were going perfectly and then completely fell apart at the end.

Good play by Frisk though. Someday I will be town and I'll finally win!

[eHalcyon]

Why can no one follow simple instructions? We had it all outlined guys... Really it was the perfect plan... But no. Everyone has to start thinking for themselves. Sheesh!

I was really surprised when O hammered. I was thinking Frisk would do it and then everyone would go into night and you all would kill each other. How ideal!

I really need to work on my mafia end game. Two times now things were going perfectly and then completely fell apart at the end.

Good play by Frisk though. Someday I will be town and I'll finally win!

When you are town, everyone will suspect you on day 1.

[ftl]

Huh. I was sure the town was going down after I got hammered for no reason d1. I didn't even think I was acting scummy at all.

Well done on the last day guys.

[Galzria]

I'm glad somebody in the QT found me opening the game with a self-vote humorous.

[ehunt]

eHunt, how scummy did you see the actions of your predecessor coming in? As much as anything else you were actually able to convince me you MIGHT be innocent.

borderline insane with more of a scumlean than a townlean on the insanity. In some ways I think the logic puzzle aspect of the game helps town a lot in the scumhunting.

The point is, as hard as the logic puzzle is for town,  the logic puzzle is ten times harder for mafia, paradoxically even though they have more information.

The way I see about it- THEY know more, but still not exactly all, of what is going on. They can't slip by disclosing any of this. Moreover, to pretend like they are scumhunting, they have to solve logic puzzles that are many times more complex - namely, "if I were town, and mafia were ..., then what would I deduce?" looping over all possible pairs of ...

As a result mafia is much more tempted to avoid fast conversations depending on hypotheticals like this. That's why I trusted Galz and Frisk and why Robz looked so terrible as he was going down. But I still thought Yuma was more likely town than Galz and am glad it didn't come down to that threesome.

[ehunt]

also, i didn't notice at the time, but i made two probabilistic arguments with serious mathematical errors at around the same time:

1. i'm probably vig of some flavor
2. at least one of galz/frisk is lying because it's unlikely tinas dies if they both are telling the truth.

computation 1 contained a subtle but important flaw, namely i need to compute probabilities given that insomniac died, not unconditional probabilities. it also contained a silly and obvious flaw (computed mafia probabilities by assuming mafia would self-target). O instantly saw both flaws, pointed them out.

computation 2 contained the same subtle flaw with conditional probabilities, but this time it was more noticeable, because it was literally the prosecutor's fallacy (i computed prob of tinas death given truth-telling when the relevant probability is probability of truth-telling given tinas death) and O said nothing.

I should have seen this as a clear O scumtell.

[jotheonah]

Galz, how does it feel knowing that your night actions were totally useless?

[Insomniac]

QT Reply 3...eerie.

[eHalcyon]

QT Reply 3...eerie.

Bravo, j. Excellent flavour to kick start! O is clearly a Familiar. He didn't claim Jester.

 

[yuma]

I am still a little surprised at how much the town was giving me in regards to confidence. Throughout much of day 2 my thought process was "you guys really trust me this much? Why? Nevermind, as long as it stays that way." It didn't.

How much do you think the game changed because zxcvbn disappeared? I was ready to vote for him and would have voted for him if he didn't change his mind about his night plan. That was really, really frustrating. In fact before I left on my vacation, I wrote a post with a vote for him after he suggested his plan and when I went to post it, I noticed that he retracted it so I had to erase my entire post and then left for 5 days. Frustrating to have him so close to a lynch and then slip away.

[Galzria]

Galz, how does it feel knowing that your night actions were totally useless?

What else is new? I'm useless in general.

[Galzria]

I guess there is a lesson here:

In M-II, I was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. I was scum.

In M-III, Yuma was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. He was scum.

In M-V, Yuma was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. He was scum.

Lesson: Lynch strongest pro-town reads. They're really scum.

[O]

I guess there is a lesson here:

In M-II, I was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. I was scum.

In M-III, Yuma was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. He was scum.

In M-V, Yuma was the most trusted player, whom nobody suspected. He was scum.

Lesson: Lynch strongest pro-town reads. They're really scum.

Except I was way more trusted than yuma in MIII, and I was town.

[Insomniac]

Axxle was the most trusted and he was a rolecop

[yuma]

In going back over this... there isn't anything else going on in the two other mafia games I am part of...

I think the whole dynamic of the game changed when zxcvbn left and was replaced by ehunt. zxvbn was so close to being lynched. I was ready to vote for him and I think Frisk was ready to as well, but I wasn't able to because zxcvbn disappeared and then we wanted to give ehunt a chance.

After that, out of all the people to kill Robz was the worst person to kill off, well Galz might have been the worst actually. O and I lost because the two vigs targeted us (Frisk and eHunt). But if Robz had been alive and targeted either O or I, he would have died instead.

Rough, rough way to end that game...