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[jotheonah]

Okay, at CF's prompting--and because the day could end at any minute--here is a list of everybody, from most suspicious to least, with a bit of commentary. None of these are like, sure things. The long day has certainly given us good info and evidence, but with so many people they run together a bit, so... these are sort of based more on my gut feelings, which I know were informed by evidence at some point, though I can't exactly recall what that evidence was in every case.

jotheonah -- Still the most suspicious to me, for reasons I've gone over. The fact that he cooled off so dramatically and actually did manage to spare himself from lynching really does lend credence to the idea of him being mafia. I'm worried we are going to forget about Jo a bit, because there are going to be a lot of suspects next round. So, let's try not to forget about him.
Grujah -- Well, he was suspicious for voting without explanation for somebody early on. Pops, maybe? It put him on my radar, and other people noticed too. He downplayed his abilities a lot, which I don't like. And uh, I don't know--every time he speaks (which became rarer as the day went on) he is suspicious. And his vote for Axxle here was suspicious. I don't usually jump at the people voting 6, 7, 8... but this game they are definitely noticeable to me.
Glooble -- He had a post earlier today that I found really suspicious (falling into my "mafia middelground" category). I don't think I mentioned it then. Flew way under the radar at first, but now... yeah. I could definitely see him as a mafia if Axxle flips town (same thing for Grujah).
theorel -- He has said some weird, not entirely accurate things. He got weirder as the day went on. I think he was definitely wrong in the argument he was making, and Dsell was right. The only issue there, though, is that I remember thinking in MII, "I am right and Insomniac is wrong in this argument, anyone can see that, but... I'm the mafia, and Insomniac is right, though not for the reasons he is making." So, being wrong doesn't make you mafia. Still, I expect theorel might be the ultimate Axxle vote. If Axxle is innocent...
Axxle -- There are definitely good reasons to suspect Axxle. It's weird that he has barely defended himself. Did he give up? I don't know what's going on with him. Anyway, with so many people in the game... the mafia definitely don't have to vote for each other. If Axxle flips mafia, I think everyone who voted for him should be pretty much acquitted (mostly). Or at least, like, the first couple people. If he flips town, which I think is more likely... well, we will have lots of suspect tomorrow!
SwitchedFromStarcraft -- Has annoyed me to no end. I don't get this guy. He really did pick a fight with me for no reason. Doesn't make him mafia, though. In fact, it actually makes him among the least suspicious of the group of new players.
Dsell -- Uh, I see a lot of myself in Dsell, which is why I can't help but suspect him slightly. He makes some good arguments, he seems to agree with me in this game, but... well, I was a mafia once. I could see it. I don't any evidence but I could see it.
Captain_Frisk -- He is sort of in the same category as Dsell, but maybe slightly less so.
popsofctown -- Too weird to be mafia. Seriously.
Tables -- Helpful, if infrequent poster. Mostly feels like a town member. That might change next round. I've never seen him in action on Day 2.
O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.
Galzria -- Ditto, basically. I worry that I'll never really suspect Galzria. Somebody else is going to have to explain to me why he is mafia, if anybody reaches that conclusion. I'll never reach it without help.
Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.

*Green Opal -- I admit the Opal from this list entirely, because I have absolutely no read on him, and no memory of anything he has done or said. Nothing.

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

[jotheonah]

*I'm not saying you're mafia because you make these posts. I'm just saying, lets not make these posts a thing because they're easy scum hiding places.

[Robz888]

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

(1) I like them, except a lot of times people write them and end up acquitting everybody on the list. I don't like that. But I don't think mine is vague and forgettable.

(2) Will do.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.

Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.

Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.

Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.

I am trying to figure out how much sense this has. I mean, it does to extent (mainly the part where they it benefits them if they do not join any and still a townie dies). But it would seem to me that landing a hammer blow generates more heat, so joining a wagon earlier (any wagon) seems like a better idea. Even better if they spread their votes on both. Not saying that it is not possible, but that it isn't that much likely that they are riding BW.


I'll try to comment on everyone, even though I don't have strongly based opinion on most people.

1 - Galzria - seem to be actively scumhunting, interrogating and such. Town read.

2 - Dsell - Though he did post, I completely have no idea or what to form opinion on, not really feeling anything here, so slight scum.

3 - Insomniac - Not sure about this guy. Neutral, maybe slight scum. It might be the evil looking avatar.
 
4 - Robz888 - Ok, I for most considered Robz townie, as he seemed to be actively trying to scumhunt. What threw me off a lot is him going on how his vote is precious and he is slow on the trigger, and than he votes J quite easily.

5 - Captain_Frisk - He plays great, hunts/attacks/stuff like that, but there is just something, I don't know, gut feeling says slight scum read.

6 - O - He's been voting on his own, that kinda gives me slight town read.

7 - Axxle - Seems more scummy than J. What I particular didn't like was him backing off J than voting against him back (and general, seemingly erratic play).

8 - theorel -

Also, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1?  I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break.  But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.

Ok, I get people want night to come and to see day 2, but this is the similar thing to that Axxle posted ("let's lynch quick and finish off") but said in a more politically correct way as, "I think we should lynch and finish it off.. but if you guys need more time.. suuuure". Though this doesn't mean much.  Still not sure on him, maybe little scummy?

9 - Glooble - Slight scum read.

10 - popsofctown - His SFS "he's good" thing aside, his posts 660, 669 give off a town read.

11 - Tables - Hmm.. We've agreed on some stuff (like Glooble-Theo-J backing up). Axxle's his most town read? hmm. Neutral, maybe slight town read.

12 - Grujah - Hi.

13 - jotheonah - Ok, this was some seriously bad play. I don't find it necessarily scummy, but I would cry over too much if he died, unlike glooble I don't think we learn nothing from his death, as him and theo have been protecting J and that gives us something depending on the flip.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - slight town read.

15 - Green Opal - I agree with general consensus of not having a opinion.

I guess that's generally it.

Does someone know which people have been on BOTH of J and Axxle wagons?

Grujah - I'm a little behind, but I have voted for both J and Axxle.  When I catch up, I'll tell you what position I fell in, but I think it was vote #4 on both.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Sorry, meant to take out all the quote but your final question.

[theorel]

I disagree...I like that kind of post.  It's something that's hard for mafia to hide in (IMO) because they have to figure out how best to characterize their partners.  Once we get some role information it's really useful to see what other people have said about them, and these posts are a great way to have that information on hand.

Additionally, if the person posting is town, it's useful because it helps us understand where each person is coming from, and who they suspect.  By reading what Robz finds suspicious I can better analyze my own suspicions and reasons for suspecting them.  I think this is one of the town's greatest difficulties, and one of our best resources: we all play the game differently.  What's not suspicious to you may be suspicious to (for instance) Robz*.  If you're mafia and trying to do scummy things while not appearing as mafia, you'll do things that aren't suspicious to you.  If I happen play similar to you, I may also find those things not suspicious.  It then behooves me to hear Robz's points in order that I can reconsider.  This should hopefully go the other way too.

Now mafia can take advantage of that, and try to draw people in, that's why I consider parroting others' opinions to be somewhat scummy, while making new points is more town-ish.  (OF course Robz did that in MII as scum, so maybe I'm wrong on that count...but he also had to do it because he had previously said Kuildeous looked clean...making that commitment hurt his later ability to just do as he wanted).  Anyways, sometimes they'll be vague, but you can always call out for specifics.

[theorel]

Of course: that was in reference to j's comment about Robz's suspicion-summary post.

[popsofctown]

Hey, Axxle, if there's a townAxxle in there, please give a bucket post with the names of your top two scumspects.  I don't have a clear clue of what that is from your posts (which is one of the reasons I'm hanging you, sorry).

[Captain_Frisk]

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

(1) I like them, except a lot of times people write them and end up acquitting everybody on the list. I don't like that. But I don't think mine is vague and forgettable.

(2) Will do.

My reason for asking was:

1. It forces Rob to put more things on record that we can accuse him of later.
2. In the event of a night kill - we have on the record observation from people who are not mafia.

[jotheonah]

well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.

Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.

[jotheonah]

As per request and in the order given by the sign up thread

1 - Galzria - Talks a lot, accuses a lot, if Galzria is mafia I commend the switch up. Probably town, trying something different then previous Galz iterations, want to find scum

2 - Dsell - For a guy who posts a lot I don't actually have a good read. I'll brush up on his posts and see if I come back thinking hes scum or not, my suspicion is that he could be and hes higher ranking than some others

3 - Insomniac - Insert completely unbiased review here.

4 - Robz888 - Much like Galzria if Robz is mafia I'd be highly shocked it would be a completely different game then something that worked so well last time. I don't think he is but I won't rule him or Galz out yet

5 - Captain_Frisk - I like Captain_Frisk as a player he prods people without being too crazy gets people to defend themselves and creates bandwagons. Definetly could be mafia or town. Top 5

6 - O - Well O plays every game of mafia the same way, in the one game we can talk about he was town, if he's mafia then it would be straight up hard to read and could definetly be the case. 50/50

7 - Axxle - I don't think he's mafia, seems wrong for mafia to contribute an article on scumhunting. Doesn't make him safe but I don't buy into the recent bandwagon around him

8 - theorel - Makes big posts that explain his outlook well, he's having a feud with Robz, based on Mafia II, I would suspect one of these two to be mafia and since I don't think its Robz Im inclinded to blame theorel but it's day 1.

9 - Glooble - You know I've seen his posts but they tend to be a big blob of text in one paragraph with no line breaks. I hate text with no line breaks, I tend to skim over his posts, I'll go back and review

10 - popsofctown - Like O I can see pops being mafia or town. Hes an aggitator, he actively tries to piss people off, it draws attention to himself but in the same way as O it cools down quickish, If he is mafia I'd be ok with my lynch here if he is well I guess one aggitator at a time

11 - Tables - Gettin a strictly town read here, thats worrysome but his posts are similar to M2 where he was super helpful. I'd be inclined to reconsider after I see how the events this round go

12 - Grujah - Another one I dont have a good read on  I haven't seen that much from him either. I'll go back and re-read seems like he's another of the less active players

13 - jotheonah - Well he could be mafia but his gambit would be all too risky, letting him live day 1 isn't a big deal, he claimed vanilla townie which isn't great but not terrible either. He also claimed scum. I'm pretty sure its just bad town play but again I will definitely reevaluate on day 2.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - Another one that had a spat with Robz, could be mafia I'm unsure. pops claims he's not which makes me suspect him more as well and probably puts him near the top of my watch list. Again though no solid read yet.

15 - Green Opal - Posts infrequently. enough to be another lurker.


Most of my good evaluations come after a lynch when I go back and re-read day 1 and come to conclusions much like I drew the Robz conclusion on day 2 in M2. As you'll note I didn't partake much day 1 in Mafia 2 either, had a real life reason but also I just don't have much of a read on people until theres hard evidence to draw from. If that makes my suspicious thats fine but I guarantee open on day 2 I'll have some real quantatative posts. Not Galzria tome style but like Insomniac day 2 crusade style.

Cue pops revoting for me with an insulting post. In 5....4...3...2...

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

[Robz888]

@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.

I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.

[Captain_Frisk]

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.

The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.

I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.

+1 for this observation.

[Galzria]

This is why I don't like them, and why I refused Axxle last night to make one:

As Mafia, I can look back at all the suspicions, notice *Grujah is high up (or above average) in almost all of them, and tailor my argument against him next round, with most of the research done for me.

It's not that those posts are or are not a good place for mafia to hide. I had no problem making them in M-II, and keeping Robz near the top. It's that you're providing fodder and reasoning for the Mafia, and allowing them to play you and your suspicions.

[Galzria]

*Grujah was an example.

[Axxle]

Hey, Axxle, if there's a townAxxle in there, please give a bucket post with the names of your top two scumspects.  I don't have a clear clue of what that is from your posts (which is one of the reasons I'm hanging you, sorry).

You'll take what I've given you and you'll like it!

No? Ok, I'll do it quickly because I need to rush to work:

Galzria - Feels much too focused for someone who in theory sounded more open to discussion.  His reasons for voting for me seem solid though.
Dsell - I get a vibe of unhelpful town from him, although nullish in general.
Insomniac - He seems to be an active lurker, a major scumtell.  I don't like he didn't give any specifics in this post:

Jotheonah: you are not one I see myself voting for unless something drastic changes. If I had to rank you you'd be near the top but there's at least 3 other people I'm more suspicious of.

Robz888 - seems to be behaving as he did in Mafia I, although a bit more level headed.  Solid town.
Captain_Frisk - I don't like his relationship with SFS, don't remember much else.
O - Trying to generate discussion, but not succeeding.  O is currently my strongest town read.
theorel - writes long, meaningful posts.  Sometimes misrepresents others.  I have to conclude slight town here unless I reread everything.
Glooble - many of the things he says feel like he's just rehashing what others have said.  Scum read here.
popsofctown - I don't know if that terse thing earlier was an experiment or something he did as mafia and abandoned it when it wasn't working.  I like that he's asking my opinion before I go to the chopping block.  Slight town.
Tables - hasn't posted in a while. don't have a read.
Grujah - Doesn't adequately explain himself much of the time. Slight scum but it looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.
jotheonah - I think he's a better player than he's been this game, therefore I think all his mistakes were calculated and therefore very scummy.
SwitchedFromStarcraft - Odd character but I take that as personality rather than scumminess.  Slight town.
Green Opal - Gone, so very gone from the thread and the minds of everyone. Scum for lurking.

Top suspiscions: Jotheonah, Green Opal, Insomniac

@Galz: Information is much more of a Town tool, not a mafia one.

[jotheonah]

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.

The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.

Saying that about some people on your list? Sure. It's honest.
Saying that about every single person in the town? Why would you even make the post?

[jotheonah]

I'll endeavor for more tonal consistency. Except, no I won't, because I'm pretty committed to the transparent, this is the way I play thing, it's literally the only thing I've got going for me. I'll admit my tone changes. I'll admit their could be a correlation between my tone and whether or not I expect to survive the day. I won't admit that that's scummy. I was all like "KILL ME!" and then you guys were like "meh, let's not kill him" so now I'm like, "Ok fine I'll scumhunt and be a helpful townie, we can kill someone else."

The point is, I'm a team player. 

[popsofctown]

mkay it's okiday to hammer Axxle grease now.

[jotheonah]

I have to say, I like that the main reason for lynching me now appears to be a backhanded compliment. That's something.

[Grujah]

Grujah - Doesn't adequately explain himself much of the time. Slight scum but it looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.

Hmm.. this is either him being town and right, or him trying to make me undo my vote. 

[Captain_Frisk]

well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.

Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.

Do you anyone you are not suspicious of?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...
No? Ok, I'll do it quickly because I need to rush to work:

Captain_Frisk - I don't like his relationship with SFS, don't remember much else.

LOL. Yes, I have a very strong relationship with CF, as I made clear in #1009 (p41).  It's the same sort of relationship I have with you, as evidenced by my vote on you.  Do you even read my posts?

But props for cleverness.  This simple, "no big deal" type sentence accomplishes so much from your perpective:

a) If I'm on target with post 1009 (and your post makes me believe more strongly that I am - that you and CF are mafia), this is a thinly veiled message to a potential third mafia to keep an eye on what I'm posting, as I might inflict further damage.  A loyal mafia would not want me to have a damaging relationship with his partner.
b) "Don't remember much else" deflects from CF, without CF having to do it himself.  Allow me to rephrase it for you: "hey town, CF can't be mafia, cause he's done so little".
c)  "Don't remember much else" also lets you distance yourself from the post if you survive.  You can simply go on "not remembering much about CF".

[popsofctown]

Opal come hammer this sucka.