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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 338421 times)

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Green Opal

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Apologies to all for my mad lurking skills. I'm hoping that the posts I do manage to make can have enough impact to stop me from disappearing completely in the shuffle.
Nothing in the recent jonah fiasco has shifted any of my suspicion. The vanilla town call seems like such a smokescreen, but you've already explained your position on that to the point of calling it a mistake, so I'm mostly going to disregard it.
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Dsell

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So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)

My gosh, jo, you are making A LOT of mistakes. Are you saying you didn't even MEAN to claim VT and only realized it when it was pointed out to you? Wow. Wow wow. This suggests really, and I mean REALLY sloppy play. Did you totally ignore my urging yesterday that you play a little smarter, censor yourself a little more? :-\ You must understand when I seriously worry that this is a mafia play. It's actually pretty hard for me to believe that claiming VT was a total accident.

I am so torn here. I really want to say "Come on guys, isn't it obvious that this is just a really huge townie mistake that we just have to live with??" But...I must say your recent posts are not making me any more comfortable. I 100% agree with Robz that asking first is a terrible, terrible idea.

And then after threatening to self-vote (another TERRIBLE move for the town) got a bad reaction, you quickly backed away and noooow you have to leave. You are all over the place, man.

More thoughts soon.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.
So all roleclaiming is bad, or just when it is premature? Can you tell me why you hold this viewpoint?
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Robz888

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VOTE: JOTHEONAH

I can much more easily believe that he lied and claimed VT as mafia, than he would mistakenly say that with only 4 votes against him and put the town in a worse spot. He's played this game before.

Also, I really don't like the asking about voting for himself thing at all. I didn't like it when TINAS did it in MI, either, and it was the major reason I voted for him. To be fair, we were wrong about TINAS--but TINAS was lying about his role. It was a crazy move that he pulled off, but Jo has a much different personality (everyone has a much different personality than TINAS), so I don't think that's the case here.

Add in that he's walking away from the argument now, it doesn't at all seem to me like something townie Jo would do. (I know he has to leave in real life, but he could have said something like "To be defiantly continued!")

I'm not at all certain that he's mafia, but he has a much better case against him than anybody else.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Glooble

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Tables, I never said I thought jo was innocent. I don't have time to go look for quotes right now, but I'm pretty sure I've consistently said he was slightly suspicious, just not moreso than a lot of other people.

For the record, his crazy erratic play has made me less suspicious of him. He doesn't strike me as the type to play scum with that particular strategy.

I have to sign off for a bit. Might be on before bed.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Voltgloss

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Green Opal, Captain_Frisk, and theorel found themselves investigating the Estate's Workshop.  Digging through the various tools, workbenches, and blueprints, Captain_Frisk suddenly had an idea.  "If we can't find the portcullis key, maybe we can MAKE one!  There have to be sufficient tools here to craft SOMETHING that will turn that wretched lock, right?"

Green Opal and theorel looked at each other, then shrugged.  It was as good an idea as any.  They spent thirty minutes gathering tools, then pooled what they'd found in the center of the Workshop.

  • Green Opal had gathered an assorted array of trowels, shovels, and spades.
  • theorel brought six large bags of potting soil.
  • Captain_Frisk had thirty seed packets.
They looked at the tools, then at each other, then at the tools again.

And birds chirped at them from the Gardens outside.

Vote Count 1-8

Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (3) - Insomniac, O, Grujah
Grujah (3) - theorel, Glooble, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Green Opal, Galzria, Tables, Axxle, Robz888
Dsell (1) - Captain_Frisk
Glooble (1) - popsofctown

Not Voting {1} - Dsell

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 07:04:00 pm by Voltgloss »
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Tables

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(Post being made immediately after my last one)

Short analysis on everyone. Don't take my town/scum reads too far, nobody has gotten far enough along either direction I want to condem them or rush to their defence if they were under fire.
Oh, and I'm probably going to use male pronouns for everyone. Apologies if this is incorrect for anyone.

Galzria: Was somewhat distracting early, which was very different from his style (as mafia) in II. I don't have a lot else on him, which suggests there's been nothing I've found really suspicious. I actually have a few notes on him justifying his choices, which is generall good (367, 563). Overall, slight town read.

DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.

Imsomniac: Considering there's been some discussion regarding him lately, I don't have much on him from beyond the start of the game. What I do have doesn't really stick out to me at all. He has one or two good posts I've noted (117). No significant read yet.

Robz: He's playing very similarly to how he did in Mafia II, but also differently. He's made a few good analysis posts, and interestingly ripped apart on of Theorel's posts without being actually suspicious of Theorel (429). Robz, do you have any strong opinion on Theorel now? Slight town read.

Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.

O: Ugh... I stopped taking notes on him around page 10 for a bit, because he was just getting in the way. It's improved now, which is good. The notes I do have a pretty irrelevant in light of everything that's happened (things like, his random votes and stuff). I have yet to see any really good analysis from him.

Axxle: We all saw my scheme regarding Axxle early game, and despite explaining it was only that pretty early, it still somehow managed to generate some discussion about 18 pages later. Go figure. Axxle's been playing a very pro-town game, he linked very quickly to a useful article (97), he's been trying to keep discussion on track and not waste our precious time (133), he even did a very good thing of turning my early statement about him around to generate discussion. After the early game, he's said less, but what he has said I've found was generally useful and on topic. I've noted a few people being suspicious of him, but I haven't seen them really give reasons - which is a shame. Overall, Axxle is still my strongest town read.

Theorel: The main thing that's caught my eye is his defending of Joth (596, 609), which I've already pointed out. His early posts didn't strike me as overly town or overly mafia. Really, it's the defending Joth that's really stuck out to me. Overall I have a slight scum read, but it's going to depend a lot on what/if Joth flips when he's lynched.

Glooble: I have nothing on him at all before post 627. In his posts (especially 663) the main thing I take offence with is the misuse of statistics. In particular, the slippery slope argument he seemed to follow in that there's likely statistically at least one scum in (whichever bandwagon it was I can't remember), therefore, we should try and ferret out the one scum in that bandwagon. As town, we have no way to really know if the four (or whatever) people on that wagon are town or scum, and that wagon existing doesn't really make it more likely there's a scum on it. As mafia of course, he'd know perfectly well there was (no) scum on it, and that'd make it a very good place to divert attention to. He also seems to defend Joth in a deflective sort of way, which I dislike. Overall, a somewhat scum read.

Popsofctown: Ugh. Pops, you're being extremely difficult this game. One part of me thinks you're trying to be 'interesting' so people don't want to kill you, just want you to stick around and see what you do for a while. The other part of me thinks you're playing a deep town game even I don't properly understand. The posts you've actually made I cared to record have been good, and you've defended your opinions well (234, 469, 669). I think I have a slight town read from you... but I honestly don't really know.

Tables: Hi.

Grujah: Early on, I have that Grujah was making a lot of 'information, not analysis' type posts (330 especially). Since then he picked up on one part of Joth's behaviour, but that's about all I have that he did. Also voting with no reason, on a bandwagon no less (383). No strong read, but I have my eye on him. Which I guess means a slight Scum read?

Joth: I've already laid down my views on him. It's the flip-flopping behavior after Grujah's accusation, and the mafia viewpoint things that disturbed me to start, and this recent behaviour hasn't helped much. Scum read.

SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.

Green Opal: I have basically nothing noted about him. Only that he was the first one to vote Joth recently, although the 2nd and 3rd votes (Galzria and me respectively) were given for totally different reasons. The 4th was Axxle for his vanilla claim. No real read.


And that's everything I've thought so far. Now to reread the probably 50 new posts which occured while I was typing.
(Pre post edit: Oh it's 'only' 16)
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

SwitchedFromStarcraft

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UNVOTE
VOTE: JOTHEONAH (cause I want to see what happens at 6 votes)


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Glooble

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Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Tables

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Tables, I never said I thought jo was innocent. I don't have time to go look for quotes right now, but I'm pretty sure I've consistently said he was slightly suspicious, just not moreso than a lot of other people.

For the record, his crazy erratic play has made me less suspicious of him. He doesn't strike me as the type to play scum with that particular strategy.

I have to sign off for a bit. Might be on before bed.

This is exactly the kind of thing I was suspicious of you for before. You aren't defending him, I agree. You're deflecting discussion from him. Last time, I quote:

...
jotheonah: SO far his play looks like town play to me, especially seeing as coming off the train wreck that was Mafia II changing up his play style is a sensible move. He looks the tiniest bit scummy to me, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
...
(Emphasis mine)

Both times, you haven't defended him, but you've tried to paint him indirectly in a positive light. This time, you've just said he strikes you as someone who wouldn't play like this as scum. It's not the fact you're defending him that would make me suspicious, it's the way you're doing it.

Also, saying you think he's less suspicious than a lot of people is pretty similar to saying you think he's more likely town. You're meddling with your words in a political-spin-story kind of way, and I'm not liking it.

Unvote: Jotheohan We don't want to be at 6 votes just yet.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Dsell

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DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.

I voted for jo when everyone was trolling but unvoted pretty soon after.

Still thinking about whether to vote.

P-p edit: up to six now...

Uh..another p-p edit: down to five now.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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...SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.  ...
(emphasis mine)

LOL.  #599 had strange reasons for my voting?  Robz was the first person that I actually came to some reasonable (by my newb standards) suspicions of, so I put my vote where my opinion was.  Sorry my post didn't make that clear.

Can't wait to see what you think of my reasons for the vote change at 732.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Tables - why do you (specifically) believe we don't want to be at 6 votes right now?
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Tables

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Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Tables

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Alright, and true to my style of appearing, posting while I'm here and taking off, it's gone Midnight here so *whoosh*

Expect another reply... uh, it's board games day tomorrow... maybe not for another 36 hours or something. Man. That's even more reason for my vote to be removed. I recommend we don't end the day in the meantime unless it seems like an absolutely good idea. A longer day phase is never bad for the town.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

O

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SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

I don't really understand how a not-3-weeks lynch is bad for town
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Captain_Frisk

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SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

I don't really understand how a not-3-weeks lynch is bad for town

iPhone posting here:

I'll get back to your other comment later because you made a very good point, but I am with tables

This doesn't mean I'm in favor of using the full 3 weeks, just using more than 36 hours. Too close to deadline, and we suffer from deadline pressure

Not enough time and we give up good analysis time.

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I support funsockets.... taking as much time as they need to get it right.

Dsell

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A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
(Bold emphasis mine)

So, jo, you started the game thinking that you could say anything, and then you said something stupid. It got you into some trouble, so you got defensive and realized you had better not say things that would get you into trouble, right? You said this in the same breath that you revealed your role, which is an incredibly stupid move as town.
I've decided that I do. not. buy. this. Either you are mafia or you are lying about thinking things through. Why do I think it's the first and not the second? Because I am not convinced that a thinking "debater" put on defense would make the ridiculously stupid proposal of voting for yourself. After rereading some of these posts, I strongly feel that we are getting played.

Vote: jotheonah

I do have a question for pops: do you still maintain that there is mafia riding this bandwagon? If indeed jotheonah is just an incredibly stupid townie, your analysis could actually prove really helpful.
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Dsell

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The point about the deadlines is a good one but we already have thirty pages of this game. Perhaps not all of it is good for analysis, but that is still a TON.
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Glooble

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Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

Yes. Any arbitrarily grabbed group of five likely contains one Mafia. And on day one, when we have next to no information, that seemed like as good a place for me to start as any. At this point, that's looking like less of a good idea, but it lead me to suspect Gru, and he still looks scummy to me.

re: my defense of Jo. I do have an acquaintance with him in real life, which it's impossible for me to remove from my read on him in this game. But because I know him as well as I do, I feel confident saying "I think if he were trying to con us, he would not do it like this." Do what you will with that. I don't think he's scum, but I'm not at all certain.

Ok, I'm done defending myself against you now. I respect your
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Glooble

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that posted before it was finished. not sure why. I meant to say something to the effect of "I respect your opinion and understand why I'm coming off as scummy to you, but hopefully as I start to find my footing and figure out this game you'll start to see me as a valuable member of the team." I've tied to avoid the "newbie defense" but it's the truth here - I did something that seemed like a good idea to me, you pointed out that it was dumb, and now that I've thought about it, I agree with you. But dumb town play does not equal scum play.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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OK, well tonite is clearly not going to be a repeat of last night, in terms of volume, so I'm going to bed.  Have fun everyone.
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Insomniac

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I'm pretty sure jotheonah is just a bad townie, if he was mafia it would have benefited him infinitely more to roleclaim a power role as we have no guarantees that there aren't duplicate roles so a counter-claim at this point would mean nothing.

Thusly I still do not think I will vote jotheonah unless some new light comes up. Assuming he is a VT I don't believe we learn enough information going into day 2 off of that.
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Grujah

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I feel like I need to defend here before I go to sleep.

I understand that me Bandwagoning pops with little explanation is hold against me; it was bad play. I was thrown off at first with pops inital erratic play, "He's town, leave him" got to me, and Galz said "Vote pops; I'd like to see what happen", And I was thinking "I didn't like that last action of his at all, I'd like to see what happens with more votes on him.. so, I vote". 


But why is me noticing "we, townies" construction held against me? Theo takes this so far that he even makes a elaborated post just about it. I noticed it. It struck me as odd, weird phrasing, as if someone is "trying to hard". Never did I hold it hard against him. His "Yeah, thats right, you should be more suspicious of me" reaction and his "I'm SCUM!" (jokingly or not) struck me way harder.

Quote
So here's what I observed:

Theorel's points about Joth in post 596
Glooble's points about Joth in post 627

These two seemed a bit strange. At the time, Joth was in a little danger - not much, but enough for say scum to be concerned. And both of these made what seemed to me to be a slightly forced 'I think he's town let's back off' post. Like they were covering for scum to some degree.

Started noticing this too. Jo later (before your post, i think) also gets "town reads" on both of them ("I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble"). They back up each other (Gloob says something like "theo makes sense to me"). Then all three, in a row, voting the same.

Gloob's taking arbitrary group of few players and proclaiming that there is high chance they are mafia was dumb, also I don't get how he skips Tables on account that he is "overwhelmed with RL/enormity of thread" while other do get a visit.

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Dsell

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Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

Yes. Any arbitrarily grabbed group of five likely contains one Mafia. And on day one, when we have next to no information, that seemed like as good a place for me to start as any. At this point, that's looking like less of a good idea, but it lead me to suspect Gru, and he still looks scummy to me.

I try to avoid analysis like all of this because if you look at any single person, the odds are that they're not mafia. Of course if you look at a group of 10 the odds are vastly higher. It's like the problem of the coin in "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead." You can see the unlikelihood of flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads every time, but we should not be surprised that any single one turned up heads: there was a 50% chance of that result.

Anyway I'm not the best at stats but this all seems rather moot to me. Because with any five players, there might be a mafia or there might not.

Pre-post edit: this applies to Grujah's post too.
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