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[faust]

Alright let's finish this quickly, it's getting awfully quiet in here.

[faust]

I swear I'm going to vote for scola if he hasn't posted when I wake up tomorrow.

[scolapasta]

Sorry all for the delay - I had a friend last night ask me last night if I (and some other friends) could help his father pack up his house for moving - if any of you have ever helped a parent pack, you can understand it's an all day affair!

Back home now with weary arms and tired legs and can focus back on the game.

So, I am a Roleblocker. And while I did block fang, it was on N1. (on N2 I blocked faust)

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

[EFHW]

So cop, vig, rolecop, bodyguard and roleblocker?

[EFHW]

And mayor. Either fang or scola has to be lying. The rest are either confirmed or me.

[EFHW]

scola, why did you block faust?

[Dylan32]

So there's a moment where you have to kind of trust your gut, especially when there's decent reasoning that backs it up, even if it's not ironclad proof. When it's the first person on the claim list vs the last and those two positions did correspond to my reads, I feel like I have to ride or die with it a little bit. Also, if we have a town cop AND a rolecop, we need to have a little conversation with our mod about balancing a game imho. Fang had to just look at the town roles, figure that cop probably wouldn't directly get counterclaimed after gkrieg's flip and just went with it. Remove gkrieg from the game, and I think it would have been a reasonable enough claim given the possibility of insane, but I just don't see town having both of those given the options for scum.

Of course, being the last person on the IC's list could have given scola the courage to counterclaim given scum might only need one more exile to win, and that's honestly about the only thing that's keeping me from just voting right now.

[jotheonah]

Fang’s claim is a perfect scum claim.

It says “I’m useful so keep me alive, but do to particular circumstances I’ve been useless so far.”

“The person who’s already dead” is a go-to fake investigative target for a fake claiming cop
And “No result, I must have been role-blocked” is another favorite.

[scolapasta]

scola, why did you block faust?

Was my scummiest read N2. Not a strong read, but going back to reread D2, it just faust's hammer was (obviously) critical in the quick exile of Joseph. It felt like it could be scum trying to get the exile across before we second guessed ourselves or at least before we had time to even really discuss anything else.

In hindsight, I should've stayed with my D1 scummiest read.

[faust]

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

You are missing that scum could have blocked you N1 and fang N2.

[faust]

Fang’s claim is a perfect scum claim.

It says “I’m useful so keep me alive, but do to particular circumstances I’ve been useless so far.”

“The person who’s already dead” is a go-to fake investigative target for a fake claiming cop
And “No result, I must have been role-blocked” is another favorite.

That's bullshit.

It's dangerous to fakeclaim Cop first because there's probably not 2 of them, and he might get himself trapped in a 1v1. So it's definitely not a great claim.

Investigating Joseph makes perfect sense for a Cop who doesn't know his sanity. Joseph is a player whose alignment will be revealed soon, and then the Cop can be useful from there. It makes sense to fakeclaim investigating a dead player when you don#t want to fake a result, but due to his sanity fang wouldn't actually have claimed a useful result.

Claiming to be blocked is also dangerous because presumably scum blocked someone last Night and if that player knows about it then fang is toast.

[faust]

It's also worth noting that we have a strong indication that scum
a) Role-copped
b) killed

during N1. So if scola tells the truth and fang was blocked, that doesn't leave many options for what scum he could be.

[faust]

Here's what I see:

There is at most scum between scola and fang, probably - but not necessarily - exactly one.

There are 3 scum overall (I don't think with this many claimed PRs anyone assumes we're in a 2-scum setup), and 7 players alive. We know Dylan is town. That means we actually have better odds of hitting scum outside of scola/fang. And that way we leave one useful PR alive that might just be able to confirm themselves.

[faust]

I promised to reveal my guess for the scum team. It's *drumroll*

EFHW, Didds, scola.

If you want to see a prefectly convenient fakeclaim, look no further than EFHW's vig claim.

I don't think that from a game-design POV, it makes sense to include a vig here. We start at odd parity, and there is very little chance of ever reaching even parity (only if scola is telling the truth and successfully blocks a nightkill). So arguably it's never good to use the vig. But including a vig that won't get used just doesn't make any sense.

[faust]

Please Dylan consider these arguments. I don't think it's best to exile either scola or fang, and furthermore I think fang is town and that exile will be our loss.

[faust]

It is infuriating that the IC and my townread are now determined to exile my other townread 

[infangthief]

So, I am a Roleblocker. And while I did block fang, it was on N1. (on N2 I blocked faust)

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

Well that's quite the claim. And I guess it makes sense for scola to set up a 1v1 here if scum only need one more exile to win.

I see no reason not to vote scola now, and I'm 100% sure I'm not missing anything.

vote: scolapasta

[infangthief]

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

You are missing that scum could have blocked you N1 and fang N2.

If a roleblocker is roleblocked their block would still work:

4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
Night actions will be resolved in the following order: roleblocks, protections, investigations, kills. Actions from the same category happen simultaneously (e.g. RB'ing a RB'er doesn't do anything, if you kill a killer their kill will still go through).

[infangthief]

I promised to reveal my guess for the scum team. It's *drumroll*

EFHW, Didds, scola.

If you want to see a prefectly convenient fakeclaim, look no further than EFHW's vig claim.

I don't think that from a game-design POV, it makes sense to include a vig here. We start at odd parity, and there is very little chance of ever reaching even parity (only if scola is telling the truth and successfully blocks a nightkill). So arguably it's never good to use the vig. But including a vig that won't get used just doesn't make any sense.

It could also be a perfectly safe fakeclaim, with her position in the claiming order; if EFHW is scum and joth isn't, then she just needs to have rolecopped joth in order to know there isn't a vig. If joth is scum then it's even easier and scum are laughing that Dylan put them all at the end of his list.

[faust]

I see no reason not to vote fang now, but I'll wait just in case I'm missing something.

You are missing that scum could have blocked you N1 and fang N2.

If a roleblocker is roleblocked their block would still work:

4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
Night actions will be resolved in the following order: roleblocks, protections, investigations, kills. Actions from the same category happen simultaneously (e.g. RB'ing a RB'er doesn't do anything, if you kill a killer their kill will still go through).

Oh. Well that is a weird ruling. I guess it's definitely one scum then, but I still prefer to exile elsewhere.

[jotheonah]

Fang’s claim is a perfect scum claim.

It says “I’m useful so keep me alive, but do to particular circumstances I’ve been useless so far.”

“The person who’s already dead” is a go-to fake investigative target for a fake claiming cop
And “No result, I must have been role-blocked” is another favorite.

That's bullshit.

It's dangerous to fakeclaim Cop first because there's probably not 2 of them, and he might get himself trapped in a 1v1. So it's definitely not a great claim.

Investigating Joseph makes perfect sense for a Cop who doesn't know his sanity. Joseph is a player whose alignment will be revealed soon, and then the Cop can be useful from there. It makes sense to fakeclaim investigating a dead player when you don#t want to fake a result, but due to his sanity fang wouldn't actually have claimed a useful result.

Claiming to be blocked is also dangerous because presumably scum blocked someone last Night and if that player knows about it then fang is toast.

I’ll grant that investigating Joseph makes sense for town!fang, though that doesn’t change the fact that claiming to have investigated Joseph makes even more sense for scum!fang.

Your other two points are just wrong though. We’re in a closed setup. There’s a huge difference between claiming cop when you know there’s only one and claiming cop when you think there’s probably only one. The 1v1 is easily skirted just by throwing up some smoke around game design WIFOM.

And as for the roleblock, scum’s in control of that. Maybe they blocked Dylan and the claim is designed to make us think we still have a double-voter. There’s lots of ways they could have worked it out.

But I’m tunneling and I haven’t really given scola’s claim a good read/think.

As for Faust’s argument that we should exile outside of the fishy claims, I get it. I understand the math. And I disagree. I think we should look at pool where the evidence is strongest, not hide behind probability, which is often misleading in a hidden information game.

[jotheonah]

Why does scum!scola lie about blocking fang N1? Just to force the 1v1? Feels a little loose.

[faust]

Why does scum!scola lie about blocking fang N1? Just to force the 1v1? Feels a little loose.

I mean, it's a 1v1 against the strongest PR we have left. If fang lived through today, scum would need to worry about roleblocking him, and we might even exile their Roleblocker, in which case they would need to kill him, which they really don't want to be doing considering how widely scumread he is.

[WestCoastDidds]

Of the claims, EFHW is the most head-scratching to me. It has no utility and no verifiability. Has Fang ever been scum before? His claim didn’t have a scrambly sense to it, especially having to go first. Scola’s role seems like the most powerful. So, if we have to choose between Scola and fang, I’d probably choose fang, but I haven’t thought through that much. But EFHW over all of those. Or faust, because dude is steering this game right now and if the team is faust, fang, and Joth well….that all checks out

PPe:3

I’m so working on spring syllabi today. And it’s super weird planning for April and May when it feel like the last year was 5 million months long

[faust]

Your other two points are just wrong though. We’re in a closed setup. There’s a huge difference between claiming cop when you know there’s only one and claiming cop when you think there’s probably only one. The 1v1 is easily skirted just by throwing up some smoke around game design WIFOM.

We're in a semi-open setup. Or semi-closed or whatever you want to call it. We know that scum doesn't have enough potential PRs to mitigate 2 Cops AND a Rolecop AND a doublevoting IC.

And as for the roleblock, scum’s in control of that. Maybe they blocked Dylan and the claim is designed to make us think we still have a double-voter.

That's obviously stupid for scum to do, because fang would be caught in a lie as soon as we see the final vote count. Unfortunately this argument speaks to the general level of thought you are giving our situation.

As for Faust’s argument that we should exile outside of the fishy claims, I get it. I understand the math. And I disagree. I think we should look at pool where the evidence is strongest, not hide behind probability, which is often misleading in a hidden information game.

Why do you think there is stronger evidence to be found with scola/fang? I think there is actually pretty strong evidence that Didds and EFHW are scum...