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[WestCoastDidds]

Thanks, Dylan-

A couple of things.... EFHW has been my biggest scumread and I have been vocal about it, but I haven’t been in a position to push it because she isn’t doing anything scummy. She was just not playing in her usual style. Gkrieg agreed with this, and voted there, too but Joth and faust kept doing this “reread, there is nothing there”. Which is kind of my point, there hasn’t been anything typically incisive EFHW there. Ash picked up on this and articulated it, too, but was busy with his own drama. It hasn’t been opportunistic or occasional voting. EFHW has correctly accused me of tunneling her, which I have but with good reason, I think,

I don’t see how this makes me her partner. This isn’t how I play at all. I was a scum traitor with Swowl in a game where  EFHW and pingpongsam were the scum and EFHW got exiled because Swowl and I bussed (at pps’ direction) and she got exiled D1 and it was a disaster and I quite good at learning that lesson. I’d also never be slick enough to leave Space alive. There hasn’t been anything atypical in my play, so this kind of shift from my usual meta would be huge. I don’t think there is anything to support that.

[WestCoastDidds]

Ha! I forgot you would give a scum narrative for me,  too. But if you're willing to vote her, that's good enough for me.

Has anyone else made up their mind? This seems like the scummiest thing we’ve seen yet.

[EFHW]

Ha! I forgot you would give a scum narrative for me,  too. But if you're willing to vote her, that's good enough for me.

Has anyone else made up their mind? This seems like the scummiest thing we’ve seen yet.

Really? How so?

[SpaceAnemone]

< snip >

Didds has been pushing EFHW hard all game. Can you show me any previous games in which scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy? Or are you not saying here that you think the most likely pairing is Didds-EFHW?

< snip >

Didds has listed EFHW as her biggest scumread all game, but there has been no meaningful momentum towards that exile, despite quite a few people (including now dead townies) expressing either willingness to vote or suspicion of EFHW for most of the game.  I need to go back and read to confirm the next bit, but I suspect the moments Didds mentioned the EFHW scumread were either moments where something else was hogging the thread's attention or they were done in such a way that didn't continue to apply pressure at any given moment (i.e. "my biggest scumread is EFHW, but since there's no interest in a wagon, I'll vote XYZ instead").

Didds has been consistently voting EFHW for more than half the game, I think. Looking at my current voting digest (which goes up to EoD3), she was voting for EFHW for the following game chunks:
#108-#307 -- Her first vote of the game, up until she moved to MiX, which was her EoD wagon.
#445-#632 -- Her first vote of D2, up to where she moved to gkrieg, which was her EoD wagon.
#857-#910 -- Her second vote of D3 (she briefly voted faust first), up till the D3 hammer.
I don't think this particularly supports the suggestion that she was only pretending to have a scum read while voting XYZ instead for all that time.

That kind of read, while it clearly is taking a stand on the person, does little for actually moving town to vote for your scumread.  For comparison, she and I have been pretty constantly putting pressure on each other today.

To me, the real pressure in a case comes from a vote, but the fact neither of you is currently voting is absolutely fine with me, given we can't afford a mixile just now, and scum can theoretically quickhammer if town missteps. However, I do think that Didds has been voting for EFHW consistently enough that she could have expected to get herself into hot water if a townie or two had chosen to follow scum!her onto EFHW, so that amount of voting she's done seems to be a bit of a risk. Side-thought: if EFHW is townie, regardless of Didd's alignment, would we expect more people to be willing to vote there? Other than MiX in D1 and gkrieg in D2, not many people have been willing to join that wagon.

Also, you quoted my request to you that you show me previous games where scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy, but you didn't follow through with that evidence-gathering side of things. Didds herself volunteered that she was a bussing traitor in a game with EFHW, though! Can someone provide pointers?

[WestCoastDidds]

Ha! I forgot you would give a scum narrative for me,  too. But if you're willing to vote her, that's good enough for me.

Has anyone else made up their mind? This seems like the scummiest thing we’ve seen yet.

Really? How so?

Because I am town.  If you are town, and you vote for me now, the game will end. No town player is willing to vote yet, and I know what my reasons for not voting are (risks are too high, want everyone to be ready before the day ends, quickhammer will for sure happen if town votes for town) but you, apparently, share none of them.

I am not sure what has you so convinced in Dylan's survey, other than the fact that he was going to read you next to be willing to risk the game and end the day. I think you only take that risk if you are scum looking to pick up a misexile.

[WestCoastDidds]

Also, you quoted my request to you that you show me previous games where scum!Didds does that sort of a tunnel on a scum-buddy, but you didn't follow through with that evidence-gathering side of things. Didds herself volunteered that she was a bussing traitor in a game with EFHW, though! Can someone provide pointers?

Yeah, and that game was a DISASTER. EFHW was exiled, then I proceeded to get exiled because I completely suck at lying or subterfuge. The Swan and PPS were modkilled because of posting violations. My one experiment with bussing was a hard lesson to learn.
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=17915.msg809209#msg809209

[WestCoastDidds]

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 5.3:

Not Voting (5): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Dylan32

With 5 alive it takes 3 to Exile.
Day 5 starts now and ends Friday, April 2nd at 5:53pm Forum Time. That is roughly 2 days from now.

[EFHW]

You know what, I'm changing my tune.  The 3 of us are going in circles and space and joth are just hanging back. . I suggest we vote for joth. I'm in the process of ISOing him and will report back when I finish

[EFHW]

Just noticed that Space did just post. Sorry!

[EFHW]

Ha! I forgot you would give a scum narrative for me,  too. But if you're willing to vote her, that's good enough for me.

Has anyone else made up their mind? This seems like the scummiest thing we’ve seen yet.

Really? How so?

Because I am town.  If you are town, and you vote for me now, the game will end. No town player is willing to vote yet, and I know what my reasons for not voting are (risks are too high, want everyone to be ready before the day ends, quickhammer will for sure happen if town votes for town) but you, apparently, share none of them.

I am not sure what has you so convinced in Dylan's survey, other than the fact that he was going to read you next to be willing to risk the game and end the day. I think you only take that risk if you are scum looking to pick up a misexile.

You are making some incorrect assumptions here. For example, I am not in favor of anyone voting yet. And Dylan didn't persuade me, he let me confirm my biases. Now I think we need to shake things up. POE says someone who seems completely towny is actually not. Scum!you wouldn't be so driven to exile me, but town!you could be. It's happened before that town players feel they can't possibly trust me 😪. So sad.

[SpaceAnemone]

You know what, I'm changing my tune.  The 3 of us are going in circles and space and joth are just hanging back. . I suggest we vote for joth. I'm in the process of ISOing him and will report back when I finish

I think I made it clear that I'd like to hear Joth's input, so yes, I'm hanging back a little (other than correcting things I think are factually wrong in the other conversation) because I think Joth was dropping in pieces of novel content in some of the recent stuff he said, and I'd like to hear more of that to help balance out my own observations.

[WestCoastDidds]

Folks who know...Does Space work this hard as scum?

[jotheonah]

Ugh. It's fair to notice that. I will just say that my lack of participation today is unfortunate but has nothing to do with my alignment. Just been unfortunately timed RL stuff. But I should be able to make time to dig in today.

[jotheonah]

Ok, so I just re-read day 2 with the hopes of answering the question "who did MiX shoot?" since that seems like a good way to find the traitor, knowing what we now know.

Unfortunately, everyone that MiX expressed a scumread on day 2 has since flipped town. It's wild to me that he didn't shoot ash OR faust.

Out of the people alive today I think it's very unlikely he shot Space, me, or Didds (obviously, you'll want to look for yourself and not just take my word here). This is based on his interactions with us during the day, which, though not explicitly stating any reads, seemed to indicate town reads, and MiX isn't particularly good at hiding that stuff.

If he shot Dylan or EFHW, though, it would be a pretty out-of-left-field shot to take. But if he didn't shoot, that means scum CHOSE not to shoot either that night or two nights ago, and I just can't buy that.

I was hoping this would be a more fruitful avenue.

[jotheonah]

Sorry, ignore that last part I said it wrong.

I guess it IS possible that MiX just chose not to shoot. I got confused. There was only one night without a nightkill.

[jotheonah]

We basically all townread Space. How about we all abdicate responsibility and agree to exile whoever Space chooses?

(being sarcastic here... mostly.)

[EFHW]

Finished the joth ISO, with a purposeful bias of thinking of him as scum. His day 2 is very, very towny and was the reason I didn't want to vote him. A few scummy things:
-- when he felt compelled by ash's theory that mathdude "knew" he wouldn't be killed that night. (226)
-- when he didn't believe MiX's claim (489)
-- when he said he wouldn't believe any claims at E-1. (846)
-- change in attitude about scum!ash (here and nearby )

Any other game, I'd townread him. But one of my townreads is scum. Maybe two.

[EFHW]

-- (139) joth overreacted to some votes on him.
-- There is also advocating policy voting (667). I agreed with him, but it is a way for scum to vote without making a case. He had voted and made a [weak] case against ashersky already, though.
-- Several hedgy posts (459; 828; 901).
-- (975; 1011) promised rereads. Promising rereads, especially if not fulfilled, as these weren't, is something that always makes me think scum. I haven't checked to see if the data would support that.

[Dylan32]

Folks who know...Does Space work this hard as scum?

I don't know, but I do think Space works this hard as town, so it's at best townie, at worst NAI for them.

[Dylan32]

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded.

I probably can't, just because I'm not going back and looking at your scum games to find out. I don't think this is the kind of play that anyone really has a meta for, it's just something that plays out naturally. Like I don't think scum!you said, "Hey, I'm going to [insert the narrative I laid out above here]."  I think it's more likely you simply made an early decision to include EFHW in your scum reads but didn't plan on hard busing the whole game, and the game flow largely left you alone and let you maintain that stance without any real support or pushback on you until now.

[Dylan32]

Finished the joth ISO, with a purposeful bias of thinking of him as scum. His day 2 is very, very towny and was the reason I didn't want to vote him. A few scummy things:
-- when he felt compelled by ash's theory that mathdude "knew" he wouldn't be killed that night. (226)
-- when he didn't believe MiX's claim (489)
-- when he said he wouldn't believe any claims at E-1. (846)
-- change in attitude about scum!ash (here and nearby )

Any other game, I'd townread him. But one of my townreads is scum. Maybe two.

Not responding to any points regarding joth, but I noticed that your response to the post you linked was:

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Posts like this make me feel like all your other posts (about me) are just bluster to rile up people against a perennially easy target for an exile.  Like, why mention any other player at this point when your other posts seem to suggest you feel most strongly that I am mafia?  You (helpfully and townfully) pointed out the importance of today's exile, so why not laser-focus on your top read?

That sounds super-close to what I was scumreading faust for d1, though, albeit transplanted to a later point in the game. Faust was a big supporter of the Mathdude wagon, but was also fishing for support for people to vote for MiX, and apparently that came from a townie place of him wanting to get rid of Mathdude, but also wanting to see a MiX wagon.

There are still two scum to find. I don't see the issue with joth having two exile candidates in mind.

So did you change your mind on that being scummy?

[jotheonah]

Saying I wouldn't believe claims at X-1 was a tactical move. I was trying to put pressure on scum to fakeclaim early if they were going to fakeclaim, to avoid the last minute panic wagon switch that happens all the time on these forums and rarely works out well. I don't see anything scummy about it.

Not believing MiX's claim is NAI for me. If you look back at my history, I'm highly skeptical of claims and I think (and often say) that most people on this forum believe them way too easily. And I generally distrust MiX on account of finding him very hard to read.

The ash theory was bad, as I later said, and I felt bad for getting hoodwinked by it. I have no excuse. It was shiny and I was desperately looking for a case.

I don't really have responses to the other points. It's a weak case, but I respect EFHW for doing the work to make it. Also, am sorry I have not delivered promised rereads, but that's also somewhat NAI for my ADHD self.

[jotheonah]

I think that, at this point in the game, basically everyone is saying adequately towny things when they post.  It's fairly easy to remain cautious and play it safe now.

As such, I think POE is the strongest tool we have left (Jorbles-style).  I think joth was making this same point.

I'm basically at joth OR EFHW, WCD OR Dylan, then Space.

Re-reading EFHW (Print Page style).

Day 1: Votes multiple players, doesn't stick to reads, calls out a few odd plays by others, no long posts at all.
Day 2: More active in the giving reads and opinions department, didn't really hone in on anyone but me and gkrieg.  More interaction with joth than I recalled. 
Day 3: Starts on Dylan.  Wishy-washy on me.  Then WCD.  Let the faust wagon go, asked for support/clarity/etc. from Space.

Day 3 was EFHW's worst, by far.  Worth a re-read if you are looking to feel worse about her alignment.

Ok, so per my comment several pages ago, here's ash laying out who he was suspecting. This is useful for me since I know I'm town, but less useful for the rest of you.

It's worth noting though, that ash IDs me and EFHW as most likely, makes a post about EFHW, and then doesn't make a post about me. I'd like to think that means he did an ISO on me and it was so towny it wasn't worth posting, but I think it's infinitely more likely he just didn't get around to it. 

Space is reasonably sure they’ll get whacked in the night, so she wants to talk it out now.

EFHW is apparently certain that she will be alive tomorrow so has no need to share her thoughts.

The former is super town, the latter is super scummy.

I think WCD's point on EFHW is valid.

As we sail to the end of yesterday, we have WCD and ash leaning in an EFHW direction, Space zeroing in on EFHW-Dylan and Didds-Dylan as most likely pairs, and Dylan and I largely uncommitted (with me having recently backed off ash)

So, supposing we need to come up with the scum most likely to have made the very unintuitive ash kill, I think it has to be EFHW (or Space). Didds-ash is a strong enough coalition that I can see EFHW being legitimately worried they could push an EFHW exile. Killing Didds would be way too obvious, given she's been tunneling all game.

Conversely, Dylan seems like the least likely person to have chosen not to kill Space (unless they're partners) since Space seemed likely to land on Dylan based on their end-of-day posts.

[jotheonah]

I also don't think it makes sense for me to kill ash, since I could have just kept tunneling him. EFHW has tried to paint my change of heart about ash as scummy, but I think it's quite towny. The tunnel would have been tactically advantageous to continue, but I backed off of it out of a sincere desire to find scum and not lean into my own biases.

If it is EFHW, choosing to kill ash for the reasons I laid out, the next question is who is the partner? If it's Didds my logic sort of falls apart, I've already ID'd Dylan as very unlikely to make that choice, and it isn't me.... so that would leave Space. Which I guess is not totally crazy if Space is just playing a really tight scum game. Of course, that means that scum HAD to kill not-Space, but the choice of ash specifically still points to EFHW.