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[EFHW]

*on only intermittently. Would vote Space or Dylan, I think.

[Swowl]

If mcmc had carried out the NK night 1, and was also the vig target, would his kill have gone through?

If the vig had shot at someone N2, and also been the target of the scum NK, would the vig's target have died, assuming that target had no extra forms of protection like being bulletproof?

Killing actions resolve whether or not the player(s) carrying out the killing action(s) live or die that night.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 5.4:

Not Voting (5): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Dylan32

With 5 alive it takes 3 to Exile.
Day 5 starts now and ends Friday, April 2nd at 5:53pm Forum Time. That is a little over 3 hours from now.

[jotheonah]

I tracked Didds N1 and Space N2. Got a non-incriminating result each time.

If you have time you can go check. People already pointed out that I moved away from my "scum off-wagon" theory and scumread on Space today. This is why.

Given we're in a situation where we're strongly considering that the traitor wasn't recruited N0, then faust's results really need to be part of the conversation.

I also think it would be good to check the resolution order explicitly:

If mcmc had carried out the NK night 1, and was also the vig target, would his kill have gone through?

If the vig had shot at someone N2, and also been the target of the scum NK, would the vig's target have died, assuming that target had no extra forms of protection like being bulletproof?

Space casually reminding us of the non-incriminating result on them is a little bit of a scum move. The results themselves are not hugely useful, as at best they tell us that Space is mcmc's non-traitor partner.

Actually, Space as the traitor makes a certain amount of sense, because that means that whatever night there was no NK it's because mafia targeted Space, who, as we said, has been pretty strongly townread all game and had just had those investigative results published to-boot. Essentially in this scenario Space is traitor who successfully fooled everyone, including their own partner, into thinking they were obv!town.

It does make a certain amount of sense.

[jotheonah]

Sorry, at best they tell us that Space is not mcmc's non-traitor partner.

Because after mcmc was killed and before scum recruited the traitor (assuming that's the reason for the no-kill night), only one scum, the non-traitor, could do the kill.

[WestCoastDidds]

What do you think, Joth? Who’s the best choice for today?

[Dylan32]

Sorry, at best they tell us that Space is not mcmc's non-traitor partner.

Because after mcmc was killed and before scum recruited the traitor (assuming that's the reason for the no-kill night), only one scum, the non-traitor, could do the kill.

That makes sense. So with those assumptions, combined with mcmc (most likely) wouldn't bus a known partner which would mean scum!joth is most likely traitor!joth, and I think we can safely rule out a Space-joth team unless we decide mcmc did hard bus his partner D1.

[Dylan32]

Like, it's not necessarily 100% sure that it isn't them, but there's way more reason to dismiss that pairing than most other combos that we've talked about.

[jotheonah]

What do you think, Joth? Who’s the best choice for today?

I was leaning EFHW but now I'm wondering if we should all ignore our guts and go for Space.

Ugh I hate MyLo/ExLo. Love it and hate it.

[SpaceAnemone]

Sorry, at best they tell us that Space is not mcmc's non-traitor partner.

Because after mcmc was killed and before scum recruited the traitor (assuming that's the reason for the no-kill night), only one scum, the non-traitor, could do the kill.

Are you saying that you're entertaining the possibility that traitor!me, who would have known the identity of my two scum-buddies, deliberated outed mcmc in on D1 by pushing a valid scum-case on him? And then tried not to get our newbie town PR run out of town?

[jotheonah]

Sorry, at best they tell us that Space is not mcmc's non-traitor partner.

Because after mcmc was killed and before scum recruited the traitor (assuming that's the reason for the no-kill night), only one scum, the non-traitor, could do the kill.

Are you saying that you're entertaining the possibility that traitor!me, who would have known the identity of my two scum-buddies, deliberated outed mcmc in on D1 by pushing a valid scum-case on him? And then tried not to get our newbie town PR run out of town?

You're making day 1 bussing sound like a much bigger deal than it is... I don't recall mcmc being in real danger of exile on day 1.

[Dylan32]

I think I will be around, but I need to double check my plans to go back home for Easter and what time I need to leave.

Is home far away? I hope it’s a great trip. We’re taking our kid camping this weekend, which isn’t my first choice, but should be fun regardless because fires and marshmallows!!

It's only a few hour drive, so it's not that bad. It will be my first visit back since moving right after Christmas, so I'm excited. Fires and marshmallows are hard to beat though, so have fun!

It's starting to bug me that Dylan keeps putting Didds and me together as partners as though it were fact and not his supposition.

I'm also disappointed to see Didds putting me at the top of her scum list, still. Perhaps now that it is Day 5, you could actually make a case?

I might write your names each on its own index card and throw them in the air. I'll vote for the 1st two that land. Or maybe I should vote for the last two?

I mean, I've laid out my case and assumptions, so it's not like I have claimed to be 100% certain, but there comes a point where we are going to have to decide what we think is most likely and ride with it, and most of the interactions today have made that seem like the correct pairing, hence my increasingly confident assertions.

Re: question in 1097 -
In your joth iso, you listed the linked post as something scummy from joth. However, when it happened and ash and Space called joth out because they thought it was scummy in that moment, your post that I quoted defended joth and said you didn't think it was a bad thing for him to have two exile targets in mind. So at the time you defended that post when others thought it was scummy, but now you are including that as a scummy point for joth. My question was largely just to point that out and hear your explanation.

ppe 3

[Dylan32]

I think it's clear, but to be extra sure, the "you" I am addressing in my last paragraph is EFHW.

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's where I'm at regarding possible pairings and possible game-states:

We had RB, Tracker, Bodyguard and Vig. This means scum took at least two roles, one of which was JOAT, which mcmc got.
I think there's a decent chance they recruited the traitor, but something like daychat is also quite possible, and could also motivate the last remaining scum to want to recruit the traitor rather than just leave them be.

Situations where scum recruited the traitor N0, anddecided to no-kill (or just forgot to kill) on N4:
Dylan-Didds: possible.
Dylan-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Dylan-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
Didds-EFHW: what was going on with EFHW's weird voting alongside mcmc?
Didds-Joth: what was mcmc doing building a D1 case on Joth like that?
EFHW-Joth: GG.. all the D1 voting threw me way off, and the extra stuff Joth has been posting was creative thinking as scum. This one seems unlikely enough that I'm happy just to discount it, unless anyone can put forward a good explanation for it all.


Now going pairwise where one person is the traitor.

Dylan with traitor!Didds: possible.
Didds with traitor!Dylan: possible.

Dylan with traitor!EFHW: possible.
EFHW with traitor!Dylan: less likely.

Dylan with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Dylan: less likely.

Didds with traitor!EFHW: possible
EFHW with traitor!Didds: much less likely.

Didds with traitor!Joth: possible.
Joth with traitor!Didds: less likely.

EFHW with traitor!Joth: less likely.
Joth with traitor!EFHW: much less likely.

I feel like the reads today have made me feel like EFHW and Didds don't work as well as a scum pairing, but a lot of the rest hasn't changed since the previous game-day, which is annoying.

PPE: 3

[Dylan32]

Ok, I really don't like the shift towards exiling Space here by EFHW and joth. I mean, if it's not Didds-EFHW, that is the only other pairing that makes sense to me to begin with, but this shift definitely seems like something scum would try to pull mere hours before the deadline hoping to get me or Didds to hop on with them.

ppe 1

[SpaceAnemone]

Ok, I really don't like the shift towards exiling Space here by EFHW and joth. I mean, if it's not Didds-EFHW, that is the only other pairing that makes sense to me to begin with, but this shift definitely seems like something scum would try to pull mere hours before the deadline hoping to get me or Didds to hop on with them.

I don't think it's too bad from Joth, because I was specifically hoping he'd come in with some analysis I hadn't seen, and he did that, so I can't complain. EFHW taking it up too seems scummier, but at the same time, Joth's case was mostly on her, with me in the "if it's not EFHW it's them" spot, so it's also sensible for her to take that to its logical conclusion.

My worry with scum!EFHW is just that I think everyone other than EFHW has expressed a happy willingness to vote there, which gives me pause.

[Dylan32]

Ok, I really don't like the shift towards exiling Space here by EFHW and joth. I mean, if it's not Didds-EFHW, that is the only other pairing that makes sense to me to begin with, but this shift definitely seems like something scum would try to pull mere hours before the deadline hoping to get me or Didds to hop on with them.

I don't think it's too bad from Joth, because I was specifically hoping he'd come in with some analysis I hadn't seen, and he did that, so I can't complain. EFHW taking it up too seems scummier, but at the same time, Joth's case was mostly on her, with me in the "if it's not EFHW it's them" spot, so it's also sensible for her to take that to its logical conclusion.

My worry with scum!EFHW is just that I think everyone other than EFHW has expressed a happy willingness to vote there, which gives me pause.

The issue is EFHW actually expressed a willingness to go for you first, and then joth came in with analysis to support it.

#1122 EFHW randomly with no evidence says we could just go for you.

#1125 says he'd vote you or me

#1128 joth says first bit of scummy evidence on you.

#1133 joth wonders if we should all ignore our guts and go for you.

[Dylan32]

Ok, I really don't like the shift towards exiling Space here by EFHW and joth. I mean, if it's not Didds-EFHW, that is the only other pairing that makes sense to me to begin with, but this shift definitely seems like something scum would try to pull mere hours before the deadline hoping to get me or Didds to hop on with them.

I don't think it's too bad from Joth, because I was specifically hoping he'd come in with some analysis I hadn't seen, and he did that, so I can't complain. EFHW taking it up too seems scummier, but at the same time, Joth's case was mostly on her, with me in the "if it's not EFHW it's them" spot, so it's also sensible for her to take that to its logical conclusion.

My worry with scum!EFHW is just that I think everyone other than EFHW has expressed a happy willingness to vote there, which gives me pause.

There's also the fact that no matter which of us would be partnered with a hypothetical scum!EFHW partner, being the single person to say, "oh, I actually think EFHW is town," would be incredibly bad. I can honestly say, in a different game that played out like this one where it was EFHW and I, I would absolutely express a willingness to exile EFHW, and I think everyone would.

This is part of why I found Didds's play specifically scummy. Saying EFHW was the only/top scum read and then actually pushing for someone else (that happened to be me) instead at ELo was really scummy to me.

[Dylan32]

Another concern I have with Didds is maintaining the "I defer to Space." At the point we were all still assuming either Space was town or just deserved the MVP and we should look elsewhere, town!Space would have the worst PoE out of anyone, and thus is statistically less likely to actually get the correct pair. Of course, skill can overtake that, but the fact that mafia leaving Space alive might be because of bad reads at least tempers my willingness to just blindly follow even town!Space's reads. Didds's desire to do so looks like scum that did exactly that...

[Swowl]

Vote Count 5.5:

Not Voting (5): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Dylan32

With 5 alive it takes 3 to Exile.
Day 5 starts now and ends Friday, April 2nd at 5:53pm Forum Time. That is in just over 1 hour!

[Dylan32]

Crap, I'm going to do my EFHW and joth isos really quick before I have to vote.

[Dylan32]

My browser is displaying that last vote count as being at 3:48:29 pm, Swowl says the game ends at 5:53pm Forum time and says that's in just over an hour. Is Forum Time actually 4:48 at the time of that post?

[SpaceAnemone]

My browser is displaying that last vote count as being at 3:48:29 pm, Swowl says the game ends at 5:53pm Forum time and says that's in just over an hour. Is Forum Time actually 4:48 at the time of that post?

I see 4:48 when I read it. I think the deadline is in about half an hour.

[Dylan32]

My browser is displaying that last vote count as being at 3:48:29 pm, Swowl says the game ends at 5:53pm Forum time and says that's in just over an hour. Is Forum Time actually 4:48 at the time of that post?

I see 4:48 when I read it. I think the deadline is in about half an hour.

Ok it must be a timezone setting on my PC. Thanks for that.

[Dylan32]

I've read EFHW. Starting joth iso now.