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Author Topic: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Game Over - Skum Wins!  (Read 118587 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 2!
« Reply #800 on: March 10, 2021, 05:55:27 am »

faust, your argument that appealed to me yesterday was that it was likely that at least one scum was off the mathdude wagon.  It wasn't gkrieg, and I know it wasn't me.  That leaves Space.

How are you feeling about them?
Looking back at things, I don't quite think Space makes a lot of sense as mcmc's partner. I guess if they're the Traitor the case might be stronger? But I'm not interested in a Space exile today. If we're looking off-wagon, I prefer you.

Are we looking off-wagon, though? You seemed to be scumreading me yesterday for not pushing the line that "five towns on town is too unlikely to happen", but are you actually pushing that yourself now?

I acknowledge is a line I would generally have taken, but also I think this game has specific circumstances that make me willing to believe it could happen: namely that there was a growing inevitable-looking wagon on our newbie, and then an alternative wagon on a really scummy-looking MiX who actual scum probably didn't want to exile so early. I think those pressures combine to make it more likely than otherwise to find scum on the Mathdude wagon. Clearly whichever scum who were on there were sharing the wagon with townies expressing a genuine sentiment about how scummy Mathdude looked, even though I would argue that just the scumminess was just from not following our own particular mafia-playing culture on what (not) to say. I don't even think scum is necessarily going to be the ring-leaders of that, but I think they were probably comfortable leaving a vote there too because it wouldn't stand out.

Anyone who was on the Mathdude wagon has better PoE than I do about the remaining members. For faust in particular, though, is there a good reason to assume that a Dylan-EFHW scum pairing is so much less likely than Didds-EFHW that Didds needs to be the top consideration for today?
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faust

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 2!
« Reply #801 on: March 10, 2021, 06:03:08 am »

Anyone who was on the Mathdude wagon has better PoE than I do about the remaining members. For faust in particular, though, is there a good reason to assume that a Dylan-EFHW scum pairing is so much less likely than Didds-EFHW that Didds needs to be the top consideration for today?
I am not saying Didds should be top consideration. In fact, I am voting for Dylan. I think Didds is more likely scum than you are, but I feel like Dylan might be a better shot.

Also not quite sure what makes EFHW show up in your pairings, I feel like she's town though I can probably not back that up if pressed.
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faust

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 1 HAS BEGUN! AGAIN!
« Reply #802 on: March 10, 2021, 06:07:53 am »

This sequence of posts looks pretty bad for Dylan:

Ok, that claim leads me to believe it was an indirect claim of a specific role. If I'm right, I don't think I want to unvote because it's the best of the options for scum to fakeclaim. If I'm actually wrong, I would move. So I think at this point, like Space said, you should probably just be specific.
Intent to hammer

ppe mix how does robz tie into your team theory?
I'm not saying he's right, but those last 3 messages are exactly what my meta memory has stored for town!mix, if only he hadn't brought attention to being self-aware about it with his very last line... That tempers the feeling a little bit.

ppe 2

Dylan requests more information from mathdude so he can make up his mind, then mcmc posts intent to hammer and Dylan does not unvote -  why? If Dylan truly was waiting for info then he should have made sure that mathdude could provide it.
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faust

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #803 on: March 10, 2021, 11:56:56 am »

Rereading Day 2.

- we have the early MiX wagon where the first 3 votes are Space, Dylan, gkrieg. Not a ton to analyse; it happened quickly, and once it got to 3 votes scum wouldn't just join.
- it is notable that when MiX is at 3 votes and gkrieg at 2, Didds decides to open another wagon (on EFHW) rather than join the existing ones. This is at least consistent with scum!Didds who would be content with having 2 town wagons and saw no need to incriminate herself.
- ash throws his weight behind the MiX wagon. This is... not strictly necessary if he's scum, same reasoning as with Didds above makes ash look somewhat townier. This is also true of joth but to a lesser extent; he is more guarded about his MiX read. Anyways it feels like scum wouldn't rush into that exile, among the people who were willing to exile MiX is probably only 1 scum (though it might be that the Traitor was there and joined by the other scum). So who's not there? me, EFHW, Didds. Worth keeping in mind.
- after the MiX wagon fizzles out, gkrieg throws his support behind EFHW, who is now at 2 conf!town votes.
- then we get a ton of derailment via ash's "counterclaim" unfortunately
- after the dust settles we have votes on me, ash, gkrieg. It's interesting that despite EFHW having been talked about a good amount there is no more real pressure on her

Hmpf. EFHW comes away from this a good deal scummier than I remembered. That's my main takeaway. I still like Dylan but he just hasn't done a lot D2, so there's not much new data.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #804 on: March 10, 2021, 12:33:11 pm »

I have not stopped thinking EFHW is scummy.

Her play is really different in that she is not asking questions or pinning folks down, and is just generally flying much lower than usual.  Its hard for me to think about "usual" though because she was scum for so many games in our collective recent pass. I moved off of her yesterday as a result of the argument that gkrieg looked worse in POE off-wagon. If he had flipped scum, I'd be confident of faust's towniness than I currently am.

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #805 on: March 10, 2021, 12:49:31 pm »

I keep coming back to the idea that if faust and ash were both town, we would have hit scum by now.

Idk if that's fair, just expecting the strong players to carry us, but the game intuitively makes more sense to me if one of them is not really trying to help. And if that is the case, I think it's pretty obvious which one of them isn't being helpful.

vote: ashersky

Open to a lot of other wagons though -- Dylan, EFHW, Didds.
Not really interested in Space or faust as of now.

Another annoying thing about ashersky's counterclaim is it really feels like he was leaving his options open to either double down and make it a "real" counterclaim or to back out and say it was a fake counterclaim (which he did). It reads like a bold move but it was actually a very tepid move, easy to back out of if it goes wrong (thanks in no small part to his unique meta).
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EFHW

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #806 on: March 10, 2021, 01:42:50 pm »

Rereading Day 2. ...
Hmpf. EFHW comes away from this a good deal scummier than I remembered. That's my main takeaway. I still like Dylan but he just hasn't done a lot D2, so there's not much new data.

I'm scummy, or the VC implies that I might be scummy? And Dylan's lack of activity is exonerating? I actually liked your point about his not unvoting. I was trying to think of how that might happen for town!Dylan, and my one thought was that he might see mcmc as a leader and therefore conform to his example. Then I remembered mcmc was scum, and that seemed even more possible.

I'm not super active (see swamped comment earlier), but I have taken positions.

vote: Dylan.

Open to Didds as well. Towny on faust, joth and Space. Annoyed on ash = undecided.

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #807 on: March 10, 2021, 01:43:45 pm »

Clarification - I remembered mcmc was scum and then it seemed that scum!Dylan would be strongly influenced to follow his example.
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Dylan32

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 1 HAS BEGUN! AGAIN!
« Reply #808 on: March 10, 2021, 02:52:16 pm »

This sequence of posts looks pretty bad for Dylan:

Ok, that claim leads me to believe it was an indirect claim of a specific role. If I'm right, I don't think I want to unvote because it's the best of the options for scum to fakeclaim. If I'm actually wrong, I would move. So I think at this point, like Space said, you should probably just be specific.
Intent to hammer

ppe mix how does robz tie into your team theory?
I'm not saying he's right, but those last 3 messages are exactly what my meta memory has stored for town!mix, if only he hadn't brought attention to being self-aware about it with his very last line... That tempers the feeling a little bit.

ppe 2

Dylan requests more information from mathdude so he can make up his mind, then mcmc posts intent to hammer and Dylan does not unvote -  why? If Dylan truly was waiting for info then he should have made sure that mathdude could provide it.

The posts you quote here don't logically lead to the conclusion you pointed to though, so I'm confused, first of all why you made it, but more so EFHW jumping on it saying it makes sense and adding an even weaker reason to it...

In the first post, I straight up said I thought they were softclaiming the role scum would most likely claim (vig, but of course I don't explicitly say it here to not give him clues if he wasn't actually doing that, and I said I didn't want to unvote there until after I heard something different. I straight up said though, "If I'm actually wrong, I'll move."  If mathdude had come back and said what he eventually did before the hammer, that he was the RB, I would have unvoted since I was wrong about what he was claiming there, and that was probably not something scum would have tried to claim there D1.

In the years I've played on here, I don't actually remember a game where scum posted Intent to hammer and 30 minutes later hammered without actually giving the wagonee time to claim. Mcmc likely hammered because he was afraid of giving mathdude a chance to claim and letting the wagon move to someone else. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember anyone else on the wagon even remotely suggesting they would be willing to move off the wagon, it was only me. So if anything, my willingness to move and mcmc's quickhammer making sure I couldn't actually should be pretty strong evidence that I'm actually NOT mcmc's partner, because he wouldn't have felt so worried about that wagon breaking up post claim. Consider this sequence of posts that faust so carefully crafted particularly the timing of his contribution.

Ok, that claim leads me to believe it was an indirect claim of a specific role. If I'm right, I don't think I want to unvote because it's the best of the options for scum to fakeclaim. If I'm actually wrong, I would move. So I think at this point, like Space said, you should probably just be specific.

Next post:

Intent to make someone hammer math

That's a traitor claim if I've ever seen one.

MiX posts 2 more elaborating on why he thought that was a traitor claim.

Intent to hammer

ppe mix how does robz tie into your team theory?

MiX answers mcmc's question.

I'm not saying he's right, but those last 3 messages are exactly what my meta memory has stored for town!mix, if only he hadn't brought attention to being self-aware about it with his very last line... That tempers the feeling a little bit.

ppe 2

... thus pointing out that I'm finding MiX's series of posts towny regardless of if his theory was correct.

MiX and I go back and forth a couple messages and I remember something Ash said that reinforced my thought that MiX might be correct about the traitor claim.

and then:

Intent to make someone hammer math

That's a traitor claim if I've ever seen one.
Seconded.

joth posts once, and then:

Vote: Mathdude

In retrospect the post math made about town power roles screams of traitor as well.

Well, some people are active enough that I could find "reasons" I think pretty much any of them could be scum or reasons any of them could be town.  However, there is definitely TONS of useful interactions that have been happening, so that bodes well for tomorrow.  Town, we have to carefully use any PR's to make sure the results can be useful not only individually, but also in how the results may interact with those interactions... if that makes any sense.  (Getting a read on someone is helpful... but getting a read on someone that you're fairly certain is connected to another someone can be even more useful).

But now I'm torn between 2 options.  Do we try to vote someone out who we have mild suspicions of, who we can actually connect their reveal-on-exile to the statements made by others about them on day-1?  Or do we just go for the less active lurkers, to make sure they don't just hide through a couple days?

Yeah, sorry! Started a re-read of everyone earlier, but didn't finish it before the evening's social calls, and now it's past bedtime. Still have notes in another tab, but it will have to wait till tomorrow at this point. My sanity is on a lot thinner ground than it was in the beforetimes, so bedtime needs to be that bit more strict :-(

vote: Space
Reason: post more!

So faust had the chance to unvote there too if he wanted more info, but instead reinforced that he wanted mathdude to be hammered, and mcmc obliged immediately.  To EFHW's point about me seeing mcmc as a leader or something, how about scum!mcmc following scum!faust's coaching and obliging with the hammer he requested on the spot?

I know it will probably be read as omgus, but given that EoD1, and how faust has been driving the conversation and leading several of the less active people along with him (myself included for the last couple days), I actually am starting the think there's a pretty strong case to be made for scum!faust here.  More reasons for this read than just this, but I'll have to type them out later.

On a tangent, I will hopefully be much more available this game day. Last weekend held a work deadline that had pretty serious implications for whether I would be continuing to work for the same organization or not, so that was where nearly all my focus was for the week or so leading up to it. That's behind, it went well, and I have more space to think now.
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EFHW

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #809 on: March 10, 2021, 04:57:22 pm »

unvote. Great, now I'm townreading Dylan and scum reading faust. I need to get my act together.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 2!
« Reply #810 on: March 11, 2021, 12:22:56 am »

Vote Count 3.1:

Dylan32 (1): faust
Ashersky (1): Joth
Not Voting (5): WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnenome, EFHW, Ashersky, Dylan32


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 3 starts now and ends Monday, March 15th at 6:30pm Forum Time.
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ashersky

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #811 on: March 11, 2021, 01:07:00 am »

How do people feel about posting updated popsquizes?

faust/EFHW
WCD/Space/Dylan
Joth

I feel like my current opinions group the remaining players into these groupings, which runs sort of mafia to town.  Basically, I feel strongly that ONE of faust and EFHW must be mafia given activity level, play, and reaction to me.

Space could be in that above group, or the below group, so just apply the language from those to them.

WCD and Dylan fall into the underactive, flying under the radar, but sometimes posts towny stuff pile.

Joth I think is just town from my experience reading him.

So that's that.
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faust

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 1 HAS BEGUN! AGAIN!
« Reply #812 on: March 11, 2021, 02:10:34 am »

In the years I've played on here, I don't actually remember a game where scum posted Intent to hammer and 30 minutes later hammered without actually giving the wagonee time to claim.
Haha, well done for giving a sufficiently specific description that it probably has not happened in exactly this way before. Unfortunately, people quickhammering without leaving time to claim happens all the time. So unless you want to claim that you knew that mcmc is scum (in which case, by all means, go ahead), the fact that he's scum should have had no impact on your decision-making there.

Mcmc likely hammered because he was afraid of giving mathdude a chance to claim and letting the wagon move to someone else. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember anyone else on the wagon even remotely suggesting they would be willing to move off the wagon, it was only me. So if anything, my willingness to move and mcmc's quickhammer making sure I couldn't actually should be pretty strong evidence that I'm actually NOT mcmc's partner, because he wouldn't have felt so worried about that wagon breaking up post claim.
This is all a bit convoluted. The assumption that mcmc was afraid of giving mathdude a chance to claim is shaky at best. What would he be afraid of? Generally it is favorable to scum to force as many claims a possible D1, and the main alternative wagon at the time was MiX, so it's not like there was a big threat of a scum exile.

That said, of course, I don't really understand why mcmc did what he did. The closest thing I can imagine to a good reason is he wanted to attract the attention of any investigative roles because his role makes him immune to those.

So faust had the chance to unvote there too if he wanted more info, but instead reinforced that he wanted mathdude to be hammered, and mcmc obliged immediately.  To EFHW's point about me seeing mcmc as a leader or something, how about scum!mcmc following scum!faust's coaching and obliging with the hammer he requested on the spot?
Yes, I could have unvoted. At the time I felt that no role that mathdude could claim would make me change my mind of wanting to exile him. I felt like he was trying to live up to ash's claim of "either PR or scum". With hindsight, I should have considered that if a newbie was scum then scum probably would have chosen Daychat and coachied him into making a better claim. Unfortunately I didn't take the time to think things through.

But the mcmc/faust partner theory doesn't make much sense at all. Like, if I was scum and wanted to boss around my partner(s), surely I'd pick Daychat for that? Also, this would only account for a scenario where mcmc knows that I am scum, so it wouldn't work for Traitor!me. And finally, why oh why would a mcmc/faust team even make that move? What's the gain? Exiling a PR that we might as well have nightkilled? And the cost is that both of us look incredibly scummy for it, surely we'd have to be aware of that?

There is going to be those people who would chime in here with "oh but if one of you dies then the other can make that argument for towncred".  Which is just silly. Like, the occasions where you want to actively work towards getting one of your own killed as scum are already incredibly rare. No matter how much towncred is gained the other one can still be found out via PRs or PoE. It's just a bad strategy. I think I argued for the same point before, both as town in a game thread and as scum in a scum QT. If this would convince anybody to not vote for me, I can try to grab some quotes somewhere.

Besides, I think there are some players who would follow my orders when we're both scum, but I don't really see mcmc as one of them.

I know it will probably be read as omgus, but given that EoD1, and how faust has been driving the conversation and leading several of the less active people along with him (myself included for the last couple days), I actually am starting the think there's a pretty strong case to be made for scum!faust here.  More reasons for this read than just this, but I'll have to type them out later.
Now I'm scum for being active? Please. I hope the reasons you withheld are at least a bit more compelling than that.
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Dylan32

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 1 HAS BEGUN! AGAIN!
« Reply #813 on: March 11, 2021, 03:43:07 am »

In the years I've played on here, I don't actually remember a game where scum posted Intent to hammer and 30 minutes later hammered without actually giving the wagonee time to claim.
Haha, well done for giving a sufficiently specific description that it probably has not happened in exactly this way before. Unfortunately, people quickhammering without leaving time to claim happens all the time. So unless you want to claim that you knew that mcmc is scum (in which case, by all means, go ahead), the fact that he's scum should have had no impact on your decision-making there.
--snip--

Fair, that was wordy. I don't remember anyone announcing intent and hammering 30 minutes later before a response. Is that general enough for you? Yeah quickhammers happen, but at that point, most of the people not on the wagon didn't like the wagon (like Space and joth from memory) and Ash was already on, so the risk of a quickhammer seemed pretty low in general. That there was a stated intent made it seem less likely still, so given that we both seemed to think staying on the wagon until post claim was the right move, you can't use that against me, especially since I was the only one of the two of us who stated even a remote willingness to move pending the claim.

--snip--
Mcmc likely hammered because he was afraid of giving mathdude a chance to claim and letting the wagon move to someone else. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember anyone else on the wagon even remotely suggesting they would be willing to move off the wagon, it was only me. So if anything, my willingness to move and mcmc's quickhammer making sure I couldn't actually should be pretty strong evidence that I'm actually NOT mcmc's partner, because he wouldn't have felt so worried about that wagon breaking up post claim.
This is all a bit convoluted. The assumption that mcmc was afraid of giving mathdude a chance to claim is shaky at best. What would he be afraid of? Generally it is favorable to scum to force as many claims a possible D1, and the main alternative wagon at the time was MiX, so it's not like there was a big threat of a scum exile.

That said, of course, I don't really understand why mcmc did what he did. The closest thing I can imagine to a good reason is he wanted to attract the attention of any investigative roles because his role makes him immune to those.

--snip--

Sure scum could have gotten one more person to claim by moving the wagon, but apparently mcmc thought exiling a PR D1 was more important.  Scum knows how many PRs there are and so would have a better idea the odds of hitting one or how many there are.

(Unrelated to our cases on each other, but I actually think mcmc's choice there might be evidence that the number of PRs in the game is on the higher side than the minimum, since having a bunch of uncontested PR claims later would make it much harder for scum to escape POE).  But actually, maybe it is related, because that future POE based on PRs could be what he was afraid of.

Also, several people commented earlier in the game that town!MiX is sometimes a net positive for scum.  It's possible mcmc (and/or scum team depending on daychat or nah) decided a bad looking exile of a PR was worth keeping MiX in the game to obfuscate stuff later.

So yeah, maybe "afraid of mathdude claiming" isn't technically right, but there are quite a few reasons why he might have wanted to be sure that wagon went through instead of letting it go somewhere else, even if town!MiX was the alternative. No matter what the reasoning was, based on what everyone said in thread, I was the person most likely to jump off that wagon (possibly the only person willing to), and mcmc decided not to give mathdude (and consequently me) the chance to break up that wagon.  If I were scum with mcmc, there was simply no pressure to quickhammer there because nobody else had expressed a willingness to move, and two people (MiX and yourself) at least had said you were going to force someone to hammer there, so you def weren't moving.

--snip--
So faust had the chance to unvote there too if he wanted more info, but instead reinforced that he wanted mathdude to be hammered, and mcmc obliged immediately.  To EFHW's point about me seeing mcmc as a leader or something, how about scum!mcmc following scum!faust's coaching and obliging with the hammer he requested on the spot?
1. Yes, I could have unvoted. At the time I felt that no role that mathdude could claim would make me change my mind of wanting to exile him. I felt like he was trying to live up to ash's claim of "either PR or scum". With hindsight, I should have considered that if a newbie was scum then scum probably would have chosen Daychat and coachied him into making a better claim. Unfortunately I didn't take the time to think things through.

2. But the mcmc/faust partner theory doesn't make much sense at all. Like, if I was scum and wanted to boss around my partner(s), surely I'd pick Daychat for that? Also, this would only account for a scenario where mcmc knows that I am scum, so it wouldn't work for Traitor!me. And finally, why oh why would a mcmc/faust team even make that move? What's the gain? Exiling a PR that we might as well have nightkilled? And the cost is that both of us look incredibly scummy for it, surely we'd have to be aware of that?

3. There is going to be those people who would chime in here with "oh but if one of you dies then the other can make that argument for towncred".  Which is just silly. Like, the occasions where you want to actively work towards getting one of your own killed as scum are already incredibly rare. No matter how much towncred is gained the other one can still be found out via PRs or PoE. It's just a bad strategy. I think I argued for the same point before, both as town in a game thread and as scum in a scum QT. If this would convince anybody to not vote for me, I can try to grab some quotes somewhere.

4. Besides, I think there are some players who would follow my orders when we're both scum, but I don't really see mcmc as one of them.

numbers added for reference
1. Obviously, D1 I mostly agreed with you, even if I wasn't quite so strongly convinced as you, so I'm not giving you scumpoints for not unvoting. My point there is more if it was scummy for me there, it's at least as scummy for you if not more so.

2. "surely I'd pick daychat for that?" I mean, this is WIFOM, especially the later sentence about why would you make that play. Like I said above, there's a lot of reasons scum could have come up with to push through that exile. Apparently at least mcmc thought it was worth it, and it honestly doesn't really matter if it was him alone or a team decision, because he did it, so at least 1/3 scum thought it was a good idea.

3. The entire concept of distancing from your partners is based on this principle, which isn't silly. In this paragraph, you move the goalposts from heading off the argument "oh but if one of you dies then the other can make that argument for towncred" to "Like, the occasions where you want to actively work towards getting one of your own killed as scum are already incredibly rare" in 3 sentences. Yes, the latter statement is absolutely true. You should not actively work to get your partners killed in what is likely an overwhelming majority of the time. But the former statement does not inherently mean "actively working to get your partner killed." Rather, it's "should one partner get killed, the other has a plausible argument for why they weren't partners."

So to prove you right, I'll go ahead and say yes, you could have made that exact play as partners. In fact, the way you pushed so hard to look off wagon D2 is a generalized form of this exact argument. "Mcmc and his partner would not have made this play together, and as such the people on wagon get towncred and we should look elsewhere." Instead of just distancing yourself, you included a whole group to make it less obvious that this was what you are doing, if in fact you are scum and this is what you were doing at least.

4. This is totally fair, and I mentioned that more as a response to EFHW's comment that I might view mcmc as a leader, not so much as a main point in the case. If EFHW hadn't made that comment, I probably wouldn't have mentioned that at all.

--snip--
I know it will probably be read as omgus, but given that EoD1, and how faust has been driving the conversation and leading several of the less active people along with him (myself included for the last couple days), I actually am starting the think there's a pretty strong case to be made for scum!faust here.  More reasons for this read than just this, but I'll have to type them out later.
Now I'm scum for being active? Please. I hope the reasons you withheld are at least a bit more compelling than that.

Nice strawman. Being active obviously is not the same thing as driving the conversation. However, perhaps "driving town" would have been more accurate to what I meant to say than "the conversation." Other players were active, in fact more active, than yourself to this point in the game, and yet the narrative seems to have been pretty consistently around wherever you have been focused. Your role (and my own) in mathdude's exile is decently well documented. Skimming back over D2 and it feels like you were pretty much the driving force behind gkrieg's exile. Other people were pushing other wagons, but your push was the one that held sway. In some way at least then, you were the driving force behind D2.

A couple different times, I've seen people divide up the remaining roster into potential scum buckets like A) active scum leading town astray or B) passive scum letting town destroy itself. Town can totally be active, and in fact is probably better when it is. I wouldn't give scum points to you for being active. In fact, so far you've been at about the level I expect from you, so that's NAI. The way I see the game at this point though, is that either scum is in bucket B and you have been the townie they are letting lead town astray so far, or you are scum in bucket A.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #814 on: March 11, 2021, 04:04:03 am »

How do people feel about posting updated popsquizes?

faust/EFHW
WCD/Space/Dylan
Joth

I feel like my current opinions group the remaining players into these groupings, which runs sort of mafia to town.  Basically, I feel strongly that ONE of faust and EFHW must be mafia given activity level, play, and reaction to me.

Space could be in that above group, or the below group, so just apply the language from those to them.

WCD and Dylan fall into the underactive, flying under the radar, but sometimes posts towny stuff pile.

Joth I think is just town from my experience reading him.

So that's that.

Popsquizes? Pop quizzes? Pop's quizzes? Pop squeezes? Pop's queasy? Reads list?

joth seems towny based solely on mcmc interactions D1. I just don't see the partner narrative there with mcmc being mcmc when it comes to busing D1.

Space is probably my highest townread.

I honestly don't remember much of what Didds has said or how they were positioned on anything this game, so I guess my next task is to reread them. Null pending that read.

I was thinking EFHW might be scum, but I'm not sure if scum!EFHW would have unvoted me right there like that.

Faust was an early townread for me. That I found myself agreeing with him a lot D1 probably fed that some. I've been known to mistakenly townread scum when their logic matches up with mine, so that might be what was happening there. After trying to look at the first couple days with a fresh set of eyes in light of the flips we've gotten so far, I'm leaning towards scum.

I have no idea how to read Ash. Take it as a compliment. I would probably be willing to exile just over the counterclaim deal, although I know it's well within town!ash's playstyle. Side note, if you're being honest that it was almost solely to prove faust wrong, that's hilarious, regardless of alignment.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 1 HAS BEGUN! AGAIN!
« Reply #815 on: March 11, 2021, 04:18:41 am »

Fair, that was wordy. I don't remember anyone announcing intent and hammering 30 minutes later before a response. Is that general enough for you? Yeah quickhammers happen, but at that point, most of the people not on the wagon didn't like the wagon (like Space and joth from memory) and Ash was already on, so the risk of a quickhammer seemed pretty low in general. That there was a stated intent made it seem less likely still, so given that we both seemed to think staying on the wagon until post claim was the right move, you can't use that against me, especially since I was the only one of the two of us who stated even a remote willingness to move pending the claim.
It's not general enough for me.

I don't understand. The claim would have had no impact on my vote, so I did not need to wait for it. Our situations here are not analogous in that way. Also it's pretty weird to say "you can't use that against me". Even if I did the very same thing as you did, I could still find you scummy for doing so.

If I were scum with mcmc, there was simply no pressure to quickhammer there
And that would be relevant if anyone were making the argument that mcmc quickhammered due to some perceived pressure, which only you are advocating for.

Indeed, I looked at M133 briefly; there mcmc quickhammered scum D1. So maybe it was just a clunky attempt to stay within his meta.

2. "surely I'd pick daychat for that?" I mean, this is WIFOM, especially the later sentence about why would you make that play. Like I said above, there's a lot of reasons scum could have come up with to push through that exile. Apparently at least mcmc thought it was worth it, and it honestly doesn't really matter if it was him alone or a team decision, because he did it, so at least 1/3 scum thought it was a good idea.
So you suggest that mcmc's decision would not have factored in his partner's/partners' position on the wagon? That seems like a fairly odd statement.

3. The entire concept of distancing from your partners is based on this principle, which isn't silly. In this paragraph, you move the goalposts from heading off the argument "oh but if one of you dies then the other can make that argument for towncred" to "Like, the occasions where you want to actively work towards getting one of your own killed as scum are already incredibly rare" in 3 sentences. Yes, the latter statement is absolutely true. You should not actively work to get your partners killed in what is likely an overwhelming majority of the time. But the former statement does not inherently mean "actively working to get your partner killed." Rather, it's "should one partner get killed, the other has a plausible argument for why they weren't partners."
I didn't derive the latter statement from the former. Both come from the actual in-game situation. You suggest that both mcmc and me were actively pushing a PR misexile. It seems clear that this would make us pretty scummy individually. Thus, I would consider it working towards getting yourself killed.

Now I'm scum for being active? Please. I hope the reasons you withheld are at least a bit more compelling than that.

Nice strawman. Being active obviously is not the same thing as driving the conversation. However, perhaps "driving town" would have been more accurate to what I meant to say than "the conversation." Other players were active, in fact more active, than yourself to this point in the game, and yet the narrative seems to have been pretty consistently around wherever you have been focused. Your role (and my own) in mathdude's exile is decently well documented. Skimming back over D2 and it feels like you were pretty much the driving force behind gkrieg's exile. Other people were pushing other wagons, but your push was the one that held sway. In some way at least then, you were the driving force behind D2.
Can you then say explicitly in which way I would have behaved differently as town? How was my behaviour "driving town" rather than just being active? Yes I pushed for an exile of someone I believed to be scum. This is good town play. I fail to see how you would expect me to behave differently.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #816 on: March 11, 2021, 07:04:34 am »

On phone so too lazy to quote, but like 2 posts ago faust says two different times some variation of “if that were the case, scum would have just picked daychat”

1. How do you know they didn’t? Seems odd to act like this is a known thing, both because it could be a scumslip and because it could be an attempt to establish this as generally believed information in order to keep us from expecting a future quixile.

2. Even if scum has daychat, if they didn’t also recruit the traitor then it would be of limited usefulness for coaching depending on who the traitor was. Remember Day 1 a lot of people thought mathdude was the traitor, so the argument faust mentioned of “why not pick daychat” wouldn’t really apply.
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faust

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #817 on: March 11, 2021, 07:28:26 am »

On phone so too lazy to quote, but like 2 posts ago faust says two different times some variation of “if that were the case, scum would have just picked daychat”

1. How do you know they didn’t? Seems odd to act like this is a known thing, both because it could be a scumslip and because it could be an attempt to establish this as generally believed information in order to keep us from expecting a future quixile.

2. Even if scum has daychat, if they didn’t also recruit the traitor then it would be of limited usefulness for coaching depending on who the traitor was. Remember Day 1 a lot of people thought mathdude was the traitor, so the argument faust mentioned of “why not pick daychat” wouldn’t really apply.
1. I don't. If you look at the context of where I said this, it's about mcmc coordinating with a scumpartner (here presumably me) in order to exile mathdude. If I am the scumpartner then this coordination would have happened in thread as per my post requesting a hammer. In that particular situation, if I were scum with mcmc and we had Daychat, then there would have been no need for in-thread collusion. So in that particular scenario one might assume that we didn't pick daychat.

2. I'm not sure what argument you are trying to refute there so let's look at the two instances of where I mentioned daychat.
Yes, I could have unvoted. At the time I felt that no role that mathdude could claim would make me change my mind of wanting to exile him. I felt like he was trying to live up to ash's claim of "either PR or scum". With hindsight, I should have considered that if a newbie was scum then scum probably would have chosen Daychat and coachied him into making a better claim. Unfortunately I didn't take the time to think things through.
So yeah, this sort of reasoning is complicated by the fact that mathdude might have been the Traitor, then obviously he couldn't be coached and could still make a bad claim. I didn't want to expand on this in too much detail since really, my regrets about my D1 play didn't seem all that important. My point still holds; if I thought that the only scum mathdude could be was a Traitor then I certainly would have tried to find another exile with a bigger chance of hitting scum.

But the mcmc/faust partner theory doesn't make much sense at all. Like, if I was scum and wanted to boss around my partner(s), surely I'd pick Daychat for that?
Okay, so the theory I am referring to here, as before, is the one that Dylan outlined: that scum!me called for a scumpartner to throw down the hammer, and mcmc obliged. So if I was the Traitor then surely this wouldn't work; mcmc would have no idea that he's supposed to listen to me. And we know that mcmc wasn't the Traitor.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #818 on: March 11, 2021, 07:58:11 am »

I think I want to voted elsewhere. If only I knew where that should be...

Vote: ashersky
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #819 on: March 11, 2021, 08:01:44 am »

That’s a fair refutation.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #820 on: March 11, 2021, 06:44:54 pm »

I started a D1 & D2 re-read of Dylan last night, but then I got busy didn't have time to finish it. I realise maybe things have moved on, and there's lots more Dylan content to read now, though I've only skimmed the past day so far. I'll catch up in detail once I've posted this...

Early game vote on Mathdude, and a bunch of engagement with the concept of RVS.
Then goes on the post a bunch about stuff like the Space Gambit. It isn't too relevant to the game at that point, and isn't going to help with alignment, but on the flipside, it's getting conversation moving early on, so only really a source of scumpoints in a retrospective re-read where I'm looking for reasons Dylan might not be townie.
Ash made a post at #129 townreading MiX, Mathdude and gkrieg (and voting Joth). Dylan picked up on that in the very next post because gkrieg hadn't really said anything to warrant a change in opinion on his alignment. That's kind of a scum-hunting post, but also we now know that Ash's townreads were all good, so it's something scum would worry about. He did kind of back down at #145, after Ash gave a good response.
#146 now seems to be expressing suspicion on Joth. So now Dylan pivots from questioning Ash to joining him on putting pressure on Joth.
#152 Specific comments inviting MiX to put an EFHW case forward, which is interesting. I'm not sure whether to take it as a townie admission of lack of info, or a scummy "there's no case on EFHW" defensive case, or an alternatively-scummy challenge to MiX to build an EFHW case that scum can then utilise.
#178 Re-votes Mathdude, this time making it clear it's for a scumread rather than RVS. Though for vote count purposes, Dylan still remains the instigator of the wagon, since this was just a re-vote. However, it serves to get the thread talking about mathdude being scummy, especially because it looked like the third such vote in four posts. (For context, Mathdude had dropped a protest vote on me for low activity).
#196 Quite a long post engaging with MiX basically about why Mathdude is scummy, and why it's scummy for MiX to suggest that voting there is scummy.
#219 Responding to my post at #218, which was trying to be a gentle reminder that being a newbie here is tough because there's a big learning curve around what the community sees as scummy vs what actually necessarily comes from a scum mindset. Dylan's response was basically that too many people are willing to defend Mathdude. This could just be a totally misguided town tunnel on a newbie, but if so, Dylan's being really blinkered by not even trying to absorb the defences he's complaining that other people are putting forward.
#287 Keen to squash a possible Robz town-slip.
#289-#290 Lots of reasoning about Robz, with an undertone of worrying about what powers scum will have picked. It's too early for town to be really worrying about what's out there, but hard to say now whether his interest in scum powers is just idle curiosity or if it's because he's on the scummy side.
#365 Like MiX, Dylan claims to have jumped to a conclusion about how Mathdude must be fakeclaiming. We know MiX's was a lie, and that he didn't really think Mathdude was scum fake-claiming, but does Dylan actually believe it, or is he also lying to town in order to lock in the mixile?
#371 Hedgey defense of MiX, in encouragement of the Mathdude exile. No townpoints from me there.
#373 I'm very much not a fan of a post that starts "Wait a second" and then just piles more on the wagon instead of waiting even a fraction of a second...
#386 Weird post-hammer words to Mathdude about why he can't point to anything he did wrong, whereas before, Dylan was really pushing the "bad claim" line.

Day 2
#401: Happily jumps on the MiX wagon with me. I kind of give that townpoints, but not many.
#406: Says he originally thought Mathdude was claiming Vig, before following MiX's lead and reading traitor. We now know that MiX also read Vig initially, but deliberately didn't say so in-thread.
Quite a long absence, then a catch-up post at #555, which sounds really quite reasonable and non-scummy.
Another long absence, then a small note to the thread at #702 saying he's busy. I can definitely sympathise.
#712 Unvotes MiX, and stays not voting until EoD2, which is disappointingly non-committal, but also probably better than a bad vote if he really didn't have the capacity to engage. Slight scumbells, especially since he was watching and commenting at #760, saying he was going off a gkrieg exile, but not making any move to offer an alternative by voting anywhere else. The hammer was at #768.

Okay, so other than a couple of things D1 where you have to squint quite hard to see a scum connection, most of my scumreading of Dylan is for the Mathdude tunnel, and the way Dylan was playing into MiX's lie about Mathdude being an obvious traitor. Dylan's low-activity D2 and attitude to just letting gkrieg get exiled without voting looks a bit bad, but I have sympathy for people being busy, and overall Dylan's word-count in-thread is currently (as of post #819 when I ran my vote counter) higher than anyone other than me and faust, if you consider only still-alive players. So overall, this is not nearly as big a scumcase as I'd thought I might find.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #821 on: March 11, 2021, 06:47:38 pm »

Incidentally, in terms of engagement, the combined word counts from EFHW and Didds, who are both still alive, come to barely 1% more than Mathdude's word count, and he was exiled more than half the game ago. It would be really good to read some thoughts from those two :-)
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #822 on: March 11, 2021, 09:21:56 pm »

Apologies! I have been meaning to get here all day, but work is just bananas. But hey, guess what? I’m vaccinated! Huzzah!

I am nowhere close to really caught up but I’ve been doing the skim between meetings.

My biggest scum reads, by a large margin, are faust and EFHW. Joth and Space are my town friends.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #823 on: March 11, 2021, 09:27:56 pm »

How do people feel about posting updated popsquizes?

faust/EFHW
WCD/Space/Dylan
Joth

I feel like my current opinions group the remaining players into these groupings, which runs sort of mafia to town.  Basically, I feel strongly that ONE of faust and EFHW must be mafia given activity level, play, and reaction to me.

Space could be in that above group, or the below group, so just apply the language from those to them.

WCD and Dylan fall into the underactive, flying under the radar, but sometimes posts towny stuff pile.

Joth I think is just town from my experience reading him.

So that's that.

Hmmm....  I mostly agree with this. I have Space next to Joth, and Dylan is more hazy for me. EFHW has been my longest running scummread and faust is up there, too. 

So:
EFHW/faust
Dylan
Ash
Space/Joth
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #824 on: March 11, 2021, 11:33:43 pm »

Some random setup talk that someone will call anti-town...

We've had a single VT flip.
We've had Town RB, BG, and Vig flip.
We've had Mafia JOAT flip.

Remaining Mafia can be {Goon OR BP Goon OR Role Cop OR BP Role Cop} and {Traitor OR Goon OR BP Goon OR Role Cop OR BP Role Cop}.  Someone correct that if it is wrong.

The 5 town remaining can have any of the following configurations, and only one of these three:
0 PR/5 VT
1 PR/4 VT
2 PR/3 VT
In all cases, the PRs must be Goon Cop and/or Tracker.

Mafia definitely selected JOAT.  Of the remaining options of BP, Role Cop, Daychat, Recruit Traitor, 0 to 2 may have been selected.

I think PRs should claim, if they exist.  The only remaining town PRs must have a total of 4 results to share, with mafia having zero blocking, redirecting, or godfather powers to worry about (even if JOAT ninja shot on N1, we don't care).
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