Chronological notes on how I got to where I am at now. You can skip them and read the bottom part.
Vote Count 1.6:
cayvie (3): pubby, WCD, MiX
uncle (2): skip, LaLight
MiX (5): mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust
EFHW (1): uncle
WCD (1): EFHW
DatSwan (1): cayvie
Not Voting (1): 2.7
• LaLight puts MiX at L2 – meh. Eddie wagon died, if they want to contribute at this point they had to pick between Cayvie or MiX… or like try another new 1 person wagon. Not the worst. I would say based on the timing it would be unlikely for them to be a pair though. So… LL/MiX no go, but if MiX Town then down the road would remember this as possible Cayvie/LL… except right now I think Cayvie is Town… so yeah it is suspiciously timed, but that is it really.
• Pubby puts MiX at L1 – Same point as MiX/LL. Would lean against Pubby/MiX, same reason as above with LL, and oddly I actually feel like it can’t be cayvie/pubby either because that is just too suspicious. So def a weird vote… but again idk as of yet how it makes me feel.
• Eddie defends MiX – wants EFHW or Pubby
• Cayvie doesn’t like Pubby’s vote – votes for Pubby
• MiX low key hints at having info on Eddie? Says they won’t claim. Which is fine.
• Skip goes to pubby from eddie.
• EFHW and WCD ask Galz again for MiX reason
• Mix wants Swan, EFHW, Pubby lynch
So right after the L1, we end up here… still pubby at L1
Vote Count 1.7:
cayvie (2): WCD, MiX
MiX (7): mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, faust, LaLight, pubby
EFHW (1): uncle
WCD (1): EFHW
pubby (2): cayvie, skip
Not Voting (1): 2.7
• So with the vote moves, all of them were not on MiX and none of them went to MiX.
• Faust is first to get off the wagon, which is nai honestly at this point, and goes with EFHW.
• Cayvie not leaving pubby
• WCD moves from cayvie to EFHW. These too are weird ish I guess. Could be team like things to look at in later days if there are flips among pubby/Cayvie/WCD/EFHW.
• Mix goes to EFHW
That all gets us here:
Vote Count 1.8:
MiX (6): mail-mi, shraeye, Galzria, DatSwan, LaLight, pubby
EFHW (4): uncle, faust, WCD, MiX
WCD (1): EFHW
pubby (2): cayvie, skip
Not Voting (1): 2.7
*So far I am torn. I really liked my MiX case. But either… it is Skum!MiX and none of his buddies were on wagon and so they all went elsewhere, or it is Town!MiX and lots of skum was already on the wagon? So nothing I guess to take away, it is too early to put much merit into VCA*
• Cayvie and Skip both post same lynch list of Pubby/EFHW/MiX/WCD. I do not know how that makes me feel. I hate seeing back to back coinciding lists like that because it makes me suspicious, but also it is just kind of Day 1 “here are the options”.
• E! catches up and goes for Cayvie
• E! defends EFHW
• MailMi wants to stay on MiX – but NOW is ok possibly moving to Cayvie. Does not want EFHW.
• MiX doesn’t like I didn’t respond (sorry, I didn’t respond to anything I was AFK for 2-3 days).
• And then Cayvie votes for LaLight.
Where does all that put me? I got no idea. Breaking it down:
1) MiX wasn’t hammered. That actually means nothing. Even if he is skum, a non-hammer is kind of to be expected this early in the game. So there is no real case for like “defense” at this point. I still am getting skummy vibes, but they have done a good job at defending themselves, so my read, both because of that and vote movement, is lessening my skum read I guess.
2) I kind of don’t get or agree with cases other people have made on Cayvie or EFHW, so I do not see myself going there.
3) I could see a pubby vote if it is needed.
All of that being said - I have now gone and looked at MiX's response to my comment that they mentioned. For MiX, in my experience, honing in on little things early game like "pessimismvsoptomism" and one liners and things like that is in fact a town trait for them. I do NOT agree with their points on Cayvie, but the points they are making I have seen them make several times (or similar points) as town. As skum they are normally more organized. Also, the reaction at L-1 is NOT a way that I would expect Skum!MiX.
I am not a fan of the EFHW or WCD cases at all. And while it isn't the best, I guess my next would be the pubby wagon in terms of choices. So that is where I will go for now.
Vote: Pubby